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FLYIN OSAUCERS:AN ANALYSIS OF THE

AIR FORCEPROJECT BLUE BOOKSPECIAL REPORT No. t4

l,il ' : '

THIRD EDITION

JULY, 1966

PREPARED BY

DR" LEON DAVIDSOI'J

Authorrs Note tg-Eeaders of the ThLrtl Edition:

This ner^r and enlarged ed.iilon of the HLue Book SpeciaS. Report No. 14is belng issued because of the demand which has steadily continued sinceth:is was first publ-ished in I956t and, whlch is ncrr inereasing because ofrecent sightings. Th€ upsurg€ of natLonaJ- nagazine and televisioa pub-liclty and trad,e books, ln the flrst half of L%r ls reninLscent of thesirnLlar perlod In I952t shich preced,ed, the great 1952 nflaprr. The authorstates h-ere his belief that the C.I.A. was and, is responsibl-e for mrch ofthis; the reader may rnake his or her om evaluation.

l"Iary earJ.y press releases and other rare d.ocunnents have been includedin this ed.itlon. which even the Air Force ltseLf claftns to have copies ofno J.onger. (See'p. C5.) flre Table of Contents (p. ii) shol^ts where thesemay be found. Comnents by the author appear on the first page of each ofthe four Parts Lnto r,rhich this edition is divided'.

tlie authorl s files eontain nany more docuroents r,lhich night be of ln-terost to serLous stuclents of the subJectp but whlch had to be ontttedfmrn thls book because of the prressure of sp&c€r These tnclude the ful1

39-page transcrlpt of the famous press conferenee of MaJ. Gen. John A. SarSord at the Pentagon on Jrrly 290 1952, at the height of the idashlngtontrflaptt, in uhich [e unhesitatinlly denled that,the U.S. had 8r{r sec]Bt d.e-vlces irftfefr had no rnass and unlirnlted po,rert (See inside back cov-er forreproduetlon of first page of transcript.)

Another iten in the fl1es ls Atr Force Eegulatiola ?oO-Z, whlch the.Lir Foree no ]-onger issues to the publlc' (see p' c5') The author alsoltas his unclassliled notes on the contents of the 19/19 ProSect GRUDGE Re-port (See p. A1) including conplete l-ists of the cases studJ-ed. ln that'report, co-rre1atlons of t[e sightlngs, remarks on each case, the officlalcaie nqmter"g and locations, etc. Another lten i.s the forr'page 1lst of,questLons presented to l{aj6r Fotrrnet at the Pentagon on Nov. 5t 1952 (See

pp. ALrAZ) together rrith hls startllng answers.

Othar anall-able rnater{al includes copl.es of artlcles writton by the

author m tThe CIA and the Saucersrr, ar trAnalysis of a Pre-19/*? SigHtngn(tllscueslng the probable cause of the fioerich sightlng in tbe _Gobl hsertin 19fl), sesuLti of d,etectlve work establlshlag the orlgin of a small-

rad.Loactive disk report€d by N.I.O.A.P.1 discussions of the Trernonton flJ-mst

artlcles 6gl nd.arnskl, electronic eounterrneasur€s, an ttopen Letter to Szueer

fiesearcherss (See p. gf), &d studies of the soulee of the recold.ing of

cod,e nessages roceivea by rad;lo by aoqualntanees of John Otto in Ghicagoin L95?o e{c. Files of correspondence with mllitary and civlllan agenciestConsr"oss, etc., are also available.

please wr{-te f,o the publisher of this Third Edition, g! the address

show4 .gll @ [4g! outside cover of tFiF @*, . if interested ln obtainlngcopies of ary-of ttris specific rnaterial. Costs wlll clepend on the volume

of requests, method of reproductionn etc. Please lndicate whether you night

be inierested in pr:rchasing a tt$ource Book on Saucersrr, containing a large

amount of this rnaterial.

July {, 1966 Leon Davidson

C0TIER ILIUSf,FOTION: OfficiaL Alr Force sketch of AV30 ailppsft. (Soe P. D5.)

FLYING SAUCERS: An AnalYsis of the

AIR FORCE PROJECT BLUE BOOK SPECIAL REPORT NO. 14

By Dr. Leon Davidson

Third Edition

consisting of

Part A: Early Air Force Press ReleasesPart B: The CIA Panel RePort of 1953Part C: The Current (1966) Air Force Blue Book ReleasePart D: Analysis of the Special Report No. L4

with an appendix consisting of a photo-offset copy ofthe full text of the Air Force Project Blue Book

Special Report no. 14, dated May 5, 1955and some of the important tables and

figures from that rePort

Library of CongressCatalog Card Numbers

First Edition57-2610

Third Edition66-889?

Publishing History

Original Air Force Issue (100 copies, restricted distribution)First Edition published by Leon Davidson 1000 copiesSecond Edition pubtished by Leon Davidson 1000 copiesThird Edition published by Ramsey-Wallace Corp.

First Printing 2000 coPiesSecond Printing 2000 coPies

New Material in Third Editionwritten by Dr. Leon DavidsonCopyright (c) 1966 by Leon Davidson

Analysis Section of First EditionCopyright 1956 by Leon Davidson

May 1955Dec. 1956Oct. 1957

19661967

JuIyJuly

Ramsey-Wallace Corp. Ramsey, N. J. JuIy 1967

i l

TABTE OT COMTSNTS

Authorf s Note to Read,ers

Part A: Early Air Force Fress ReleasesReLease dated free.X, Lg49 :p" A3

Apri.L 3, L952 $4April 25?L952 A5Jvne L7, Lg52 A6

(cm1 Doc" l"t: 3952 wrSen. FLandirss 3et*ers

fhis Th:ird &l.ition of the Blue Book speclal Report No. 14 is loyally andfiospectfrrlly Ded:icated to the 1ate

John Fitzgerald l(ennedy

President of the United Statest%t--t963

rf he nright l:ave been alror*ed to live through his full span of offi.ce,the invisJ.ble goverrrmont which increasingly stretehes out from our para-ndlitary complex would have beeu kept under better control; andrice yerqg.

Page lfrmber *

Insid.e Front Cover

'begi.ns on ?age .{?"n{pri3. 7p 1953 ilq,itiCI,Tu-ly i-5, 1953 ,tA0

ffDoe, 3953 Fact Sheet $,LI-Al,/*.t-r:'+. !954,5r.unrnary A*5*AJ.8(Jct" 25, 1955 See p.Dgi$ 11e11 Roarer release

Part B: ?he cra PAI']E[, Fpsrt sf tg53 begg.nn on Fege i33Letter fron i{'a*iona} Acaderry, *"f $s*enr:es ql"Panel Hepor4 o"f ,Tanuaqy LV5j, reLeased .Aprij" j.g5$ ,'xLetter fmm fo::lner Sir Foree Sffg.eer, i{ey ?, Ig5S :lgLetter from Major Teckorn IISAF, May ffl, 1g5S F&Letter fron a sci"entLst, l4ay 20, Lg58 p6

Part c: The current (1966) air Force fieLease on progeet BLue Book 0LSransnlttal- Letter from AS.n Sorcou J"r:ne 3, j"g66 $,,tStat*stics for ,T"965 r.t8

Fart D: Analysis of the PnoJr:et 33ue Book $pec;l.a.l fiepont No. J.d". $1R.lblLsherle Statement ::"rom Rlrst and Saconei I&litions []2Analysis bJr Sr. teon $ayidson heglns on page B/eAtr Force Press Retreaee d.ated 0ctober 25? ZgSy $f$rggestions to ths ltea,fler EIOOrliginal- TttLe Page cf ^Sir !'orce SditL,:n of Beport iTabl-e of Oontents 8s publ"ished. bf Atr Fo:rce ;tLtst of fLluetra**ons as publlshed hy AJ.r Forco -,_lo,f,Surn:nary (which a*cu.trpa:r-ted the Sctober eSrl:gSS release) S'

'

?he srFlying Saucerrt l,Tcdcl- qSfionchrsions, {rs puh i.s}-l*ti b.y the Air lTnr*e 68"lFpelnrlfx A. iirn'.e:'t ,i1,1 Taih"l**q i.n fr"i.r Fr:l.qg ile**g-h'"i ri::"-;ri

Fi"rs* pngc of trnnsex*i-"+lE u::i i:la.f " te'n. $sttru'ozd,8s r,.r'i:; i;ir ,:'.jxfsfea.€6* -i.,,,s;i.r.j,.: .r:,.:t+k

&Lr Fsree 1?eguJ-atio.n AX3-f, {,}Il'd l,$Q*fi-), ,$ee e,,,;*;t*:ii6 q}a} piige ffi. .a;*,&*

#Note. {U. page rnunbers gfven $.n t}rts Tab3e of Gontente refer to the Sargehanduritten numbore Ln the upper outsLi!.e corners of ttre prdnted p6g"s,as assigired. for this EdLtion.

Part At Earlv Ai.r Force fuess Aelease$ on nlvlns Saucers. et-c,

Hi.stonr and Background of thls Collectiog

$r lnterest in flying saucers began ln l{en Mexico in L949 when I started.workat@if icLaborgtory.A1oca].ep1dernicofngreenf i reba11s' tdurC.ng the previous year (see p. A6) had led to the forrnatlon of ons of thefirst flying saucer study groups, tfrq _I1qs Ale4gg S"tFph . jf sociation. Thiswas composed of scientists and engineEiG-In the Lab., with oF?f6i?1[-dffi6rt..0fter jofudng this lnfonnal grcrup, f eareful-Iy studied the secret Prroject GRUDC'EScport whlch had been sent to the Lab. by the Air Force to help these studies.

In tbe GRUDCTE neport (Report No. 102 AC h9/L5-]"3A, tUnid.entlfi.ed. Fly5"ngObjectsrto ProJeet GRUDC'E, Project XS-30/*, Release date August L949r written bytt" H.lJ.Smith and. lotr"" G.W"TowIes, Alr Materiel Command HQ, Wrlght FieJ"d)rI wasgreatly irryressed bg Pmf . Hyneki s chapter, in i,fiich he staterl. hLs opinion thatthe greon flreballs of the Soutlwest were probably eowrected with U.S. researchacti-vitl.es. I also

"'ss irnpressed $rith the ehapter W the Air Foree Chief Sci-

entiot, who concluded, that the saucers could.nrt pgssibly bc h*ssi.an devicee, brrtwho never even mentioned the possS.bility that they might be Arreriean, linotherinteresting iten in the reporb was a copy of RAND Corp. lotter T12563, March 29,1949, askJng for access to the Air Force files on the l'faury leland incLdent(later iliscu,ssed in grreat d.etalI in the book nThe Condng of the $aucerstt, b5rKen .[rnold and 8ay Pal-rnor")

The press release orr pr A3 appeared worrl-for-word in the Becommendationsseetlon of the GRUDGD report, in complianee r,rith a letter from an Air For.eegoneral (eJso given in the report), dateAfu-.Laaue$glS49", direct1ng that theproject name be ehanged frorn SIGN to GRIIDC'E, and that the investigation bedlscontinred by the end of L949. The re,port was issued ln August 1949.

On b€haLf of the toe Alarnos Astrophysl.cal Assoclation, I wrote to the AlrForce requesting access to the origtnal report fi3-esn which had been rfmicro-fiLmed for researreh usen at Wright FieLd,. I then vislted, Lt. Snith there onl,lay 17, Lgfr, and was abLe to get sonre detalJ.s frnrc hlm, but lnstead of for*vard,ing more d,ata to l,os Alanosr tEq ait {-oge$gL}88ts,_ogf_gopyi lqjbg.ryIlqqgpcl"lr*and the letter on p. 43 wae sent to me. Ttre Los Alamos Lab. officlalsalso ceased, then to support our sauoer researeh efforts.

In January L952 I moved to Arli.ngton, Va., and asked to inspect the saucerfllcs at the Pentagon, per letter on p. Al. Thc repJy, enelosing trdo press re-leases, ts r.eproduced on pages A4 and 45. f qisited. Lt. Col. Searl-es and 1,1r.AJ. Chop at the Pentagon A.Fi' Fress Desk several times, ard e:rarained, the para-phrased varsion of the CBUD@ Report there, verlfying that rry notes made atLos Alanos were coverred by this d,eelassified publicly available d.ocunent.

further eomespondenee follor,red, and, f was lnvited to the Pentagon in Nov.1952 *o meet CoL. W. A. Adans and l"faJ. Devey J. J. Forrrnet for dlscussion of rycontsntion that saucers, lf real, wele American. I p:resented. a four-page l-lstof questionsn thc ansltets to r.rhich proved to me that the A.F. ilS.nvestigatlonrtof saucers was eotryletely a coverbup for sonettring e1se. CoI. Adarqs asked Maj.founret to gf.ve ne a prd.vato showing of the nTrnemonton filnso which, at the tlme,convineed ms that the saucers mrst lndeed be reaL. (See ry artlcle-ln LeonardStrlngfteldrs nC.B.f.F.0. Ns,tslettern, Sept. 195/* lssue, ard see Gapt. &rppelttsartLcle l,n tlnreil l"Iagazine, l4ay 1954.. )

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WhlLe working in Washirrgton ln L952t I had seen classlfi€d, photos ofa cert&ln Naqf gutded nissLle uhlch dlsproved, (to me, at Least) the ALrForte denlal-s that the U.$. had no devlces lrhlch looked LLke sone of theBaueers repor"ted. by the public" l&Jor !'ouraet stated that he hten nothingabout this mLssile, and I sincerely beHeve that he really dldnrtt 0f suchstuff 8r€ U.S.A.F. saucer investlgators doprivedl

Whl.le trying to clear a proposed, artlcle reporting thls sad. state ofaffairs, f lias pald a vtsit by a tean of three nen, from the Office of NavalIntelllgence, the Arrg Counter-fntel-llgence Cor.ps, and the Inspector ofNaval I'lateriel. These three m€n assuted thernselves that I had seen the mis-sl1"e photos legitinately ln the conrse of ry work, and tha.t I had not oorpromJ.sed secunity procedures Ln handltng ry proposed reLease. (T?re 0.1tr.I. man wore black, incidentally, for the infornation of those read.ers whohave hearrl about saucsr rssearoher.s being silenced after a visj.t fronnthree nen in black.il) A letter fron Senator Flanders (p. AB) was a repLyto ny cor:respmdence to Congress about thig nlssll-e and the U.F.O.ts.

fn Lotters to the Secretap of Defense and others in L953r f pointedort that the Alr Forcers attitrtd.e of ridlcu}lng and operatlonaIly lgnordngaLL saucer sightings could alLow an enerqy to send, alrcraft or rnissilesthrough our defenses easily, merely by puttlng enough flIashing lights onthen to cause thenr to be reported. as ttflying saucersn. (f personal.ly vert-fied that this would be possible, by vorking as a voLunteer ln the WhitePlaine Filter Center of the Ground. Obserrrer 9ot?g, ad, observing the treat-ment aceorded to reports of strange objects.)

Perhaps as a result of zucb argumsnts, the Air Force revised. lts regu-lation AI'R 200-2 in August l95ln pointlng out that saucer reports should betaken seriously, Just in case.n.. Ib,e Air !'o:rce also stopped d.enying thatsaucers might be Asrerlcan devlces, by dropping fronr its 195/r (and later)press releases the denj-al paragraph which it had used up through 1953.(Gorpare the bracsketed paragraphs in the press reLeases reproduced, on pagesS10, A1/*, and aI'/.) I then r.rot.e and got cLeared the l-etter shor.m on p. &19,pointing out the nenr posltion taken by the Air Foree.

The 1953 release about the nlleLl Roarern flare (p. A20) shows a tylpicalcause of somo flying saucer reports, and firrthermore shors how 1gg1!@!gsecret ndlitary actlvlties have led, to flying saucer reports. These usuallyreceive funnrodiate per{\mctory denials that UnS. activities or aircraft hadhad arything to do with eausirlg the repor*s. Sueh d.enial-s are properfy Jus-tified because of the eecret nature of the aetlqitles at the tinre. lheLater adml"esions (as in the p. A20 press release, for e:cample) tend not toeatch up r*lth. the original d.enials, so that zuch evrgnts get establi.shed Lnthe saueer Literature as ilauthenttcrr eases. (See qf article flECI'{ + CIA = IJF0{in the Mareh-April 1"960 Lesue of IlElFg Saucer Fpoiew (London, Engi.and).)

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OFFTCI.] OF PUBLIC INFORMATIONWashlngton 2J t D, C.

ISSUED ABOUT DECEI\tsER T L953

}IEE

Thc fol lowlng lnformat lon concerns A1r Force lnvegt lgat lonsof unr-isual ,aerl.a1 phcnomena.

The A1r Fqnce f1.rst took of f lc la l not lce of reports of so-nq' l torrr l r l ' r r r r rg, gor. ieers" ln the Fal l of tg l lT v lhen neports f rom ther +., *rr

publ lc lncl lcated that the , r rp. t ter mlght lnvoJve the aJ-r defenge ofthe Unltecl States. The Alr Mater le] Conunand, ,Wrlght-PattcrsonA1r Force Base, Dayton, OhJ..o, was dlreeted to set up..a proJect tocol lect and evaluate aI , l ,ava, i latr f ,e facts concernlng " fLylng saucer"^{

dLr{ *ddDr6rruJ-rr6D.

The Alr Mater le l Conunand, ln turn, obtalned bhe servlceg ofc lv l l lan and mi l l tary astrorromer,s,r ' Psychologlsts, e lectronlcsspeolAl lsts, meteorologlsts, aeronaut lcal englneers, and physlcLststo ald ln study and r.. 'es.e0r.oh.,

Two years laterr orr December ? '7r 1949, af . ter J ' l ! reportedslght lngs had been lnvest lgated, the A1r l , 'orce annclunced the f lnd-lngs of thc " f ly lng saucer," proJect.

The maJor l ty of the\ s lght lngs could be accounted for as mls^ 'lnterpretat lons of convent lonal ob,Jects, such as bal loons and alr ' ,craf t . Others could be explalued as meteor"ol .oglcal phenomena ert lgfr t qgf lect lons f rom crystal lzed part lc les ln the upper atmos-phere. Some were determlned to be hoaxes. However, there st l l Iremained a few unexplalned slghtlngs i

The lnvestlgatlon of unknown aertr.a} phenonrena wats bhen trang-ferred to the A1r Technlcal I r r te lJ lgence Center at Wrlght-Patber"sonA1r Force Base as a contJ.mrlng proJect.

. Dur lng 1952, the bumper year for t 'saucert ' s lght l f igs, 1r '7OOreports were recelved by the Alr Foreer.ol ' lvhich fO perc.ent camefrom clv l l . t ran sources. Approxlmately 2O .percenb of the s lght lngowere unexplalnable on the tragls of informat lon recelved.

TFACT S

MORE

- f fr ) {{A1

ofof

Drlr lng 1953, bV mld-year, only 250 reports had been recelved,whlch near ly 50 percent came from ml l l tary Sources. The numberui lcxpIaluai , , le s lghi ; lngs dropped to 1O percent.

The drop ln unexplail ied slghtlngs l i; largely due to the Ln-oreased accuracy and the completeness of reports belng recelved.To be of value, a report should lnclude such basJ.o data 8s s1ae,shape, composl t lon, speed, al t l tude, dlrecblon, and the maneuverpattern of the obJects. i t l l thout suclr 1nf ormat lon, 1t 1s almostlmposslble to establ lsh the ldent l ty of the obJect s lghted. Inaddl t lon, a recent study has shown a dlrect coruelat lorr betweenthe numi-,er of s164hb1ngs rcported and the publ lc l ty glven to"saucerst t l ry the nat lonrs presg.

In order to overcome thls lack of 'bas1c data, and to standard-Ize aj . f : :eports, a detal led quest lonnalre was prepared by the A1rTechnlca1 Intel i lgence Cerrtc ' r and 1s now submlt ted to each personreporblng an unldent l f led aer la l object . I t is fe l t that thelniorrnat lon thus obtalned w1]1 lower st1l l more the nurnber ofunexplalned slght lngs.

The nraJor l ty of a l l reported slght lngs have been found tolnvolve el ther man-nrade obJects such as alrcraf t or bal ]oot ls, orknown phenomena such ag meteors and plancts.

Preserr t -day Jet ai rcraf t , f ly lng at g leat speeds and hlghal t l tudes, are of ten mlstaken for unlcnown obJeets by the untralnedobserver. Sunl lght ref lect lons f rom the po]1shed surfaces of a l r -craf t can be seen plalnly even when the alrcraf t l tsel f ls toodlstant to be vls lb1e.

Weather bal loons also account for a substant la l number ofs lght lngs. These bal loons, sent to al t l tudes. of 4OrO0O . feet andhlgher, are launched frorn v l r tual ly every alr f le ld 1n the country.They are made of rubber or polyethylene, swe1l as they g?11 o1t l -tude, have very good ref l "ect lve qual l t les, carry srnal l l lghtswhen launched af ter dark, and can be seen at very hlgh al t l tudes.

In acldlt lon to the ordtnary weather ba1loon, huge 9O-foobbal loons, whlch somet lmes dr l f t f rom coast to coast 2 &Ta used forupper alr research. These bal loons also have a hlghly ref lect lvesurface and are v1slble at extreme. al t l tudes.

Frequent ly, unusual ly br lght meteors and planets w111 cause af lurry of reports, somet lmes from relat lvely exper lenced observers.At certaln t lmes of the year, Venus, for lnstange, ls low on thehor lzon arrd w1]1 appeaf to change color and move errat lcal l -y dueto bazy atmospher lc condl t lons.

Approxlmately 12 percent of a l l s lght t rngs reported are f romm1I1tary and clv l l lan radar facl l l t les, I t ls fa1r ly wel l estab-l1shed that some of these lmages are.ground obJects ref lected froma layer of warm alr above the earth ( lemperature lnverslon).

-2- MORE

{

At3Temperature lnverslon ref lect lons can glve a retrrrn on a radar

scope that 1s as sharp as that recelved from an alrcr"afL. Speedsof these returns reportedly rangc from zero t :o farr l ,asblc ratesThe ' robJectst ' a lso appcar to niove ln alL dir .cct lorrs Sr"rch s i -ght-lngs have resr.rltcd 1n nratiy frr.rlt less i l i tr:rt:r. if j t efforts.

Bear lng out the theory of tempcrature lnversion ref lect lon lsan lncldent wi t lch occurred ln Janr-rary .195I near Oakr ldge, Terrnes-se c r ' I t ' . ro A1r" Force alrcraf t at tenrpted to lnterccl . r t an unldent l f ledI 'ot :Ject t t

.a. I rd actual ly cs1"ab]1shed a radar "Lock" -on

thc obJcct.Thein al t l tude at the t lnre was 71000 feet. ' I 'he r-rr i ldent l f led ob:Ject, accordl . r rg bo thelr radar, appeared to be at an elcvat lon of10 to 25 clegrecs. ' Ihrcc pas$es wcre made trr an at tcmpt to cLoseon bhe obJect. In each lnstance the pl lots reporter l that thelrradar 1cd them f l rst upvrard and then dovrn toward a specl f lc poLnto1 t f re gror. tnd. (One sclent l f 1c thcory holds t l rat f fgtr t can ,beslmlIar l 'y ref lectud from a layer of warm alr aboye the earth; r fth is proves to.bc col ' rcct , many vlsual n lght s lgtr 'u i r rgs courd beaccoun'ued for. )

There are a small numberof unexprla,lncd reports whlch lnvolvea comblnatton of seelng the obJe.ct ,and detect lng i t on radarsi-nul tarreotts ly. In each case the obJcct appeaFecl at n lght t i rne.and had the appearanoe of s i rnple l lghbs,

Ionlzeci clorrrls have proi-r,ably causcd some unlclentlf led radar"returns. Thunderstonns are tdent l f table i . ,y radar, and radatr 1susecl aboard som? blr i raf t ancl shlps fo avcl ld th i r rn. t taclar yutur lshave also been rceelved fr .onr i : l r 'ds, lce format lons ln the air ,bal loons, ground ref lcct lons, f requenclr lnterfercrrr :e betwecn ptnerradar stal f919, ancl wlndbonre obJects.- Oi ;v1ousIy such returr isar"e- vcry 'd l f f ' lcul t to J-denLl fy, espec; la l ly when i ; l iey bccur dur,1n65darkness.

As, sbated ear"11er, the dl f f lcr-r l .by of e.valuat lng reporbs ofaJ.1 types 1s based largeJy upon the lack of baslc data surror;rrdlngthe slght lng. I t 1s f c l t that the dctaJ. led quest lor inaire w111rcmedy the sl tuat l -on 1n part .

In addl t lou, speclal photographlc equlpment has been developeclfor c l ls t r lbut lon to selected a1r 'base. control towers and.AlrDefense Cornmand radar s1tes. Thls equlpmcnt conslsts gf .a c lJ- f f rac:t lon grat l r ig camera whlctr separabes 11ght lnto l ts compone-nt ,pants(spcctrunt) and rcglstcrs . thern on f11m. The pr inc. :1ple l r rvolv,ed J.sthat used by' astrorlomers ln detennlnlng the composltlotr of thestars. Tn thls manner Alr F 'orce sclent lsts rnay be able to dcter-mlne the source of unldent l f ied } lghts. As Vet, no photographsfrorrr th ls carrrcra have. been ' recelved.

There have been sorne mlsconcept lons concernlng the A1r Forcehandl l t rg of t ' f ly1ng saulccrt t reports. Qne of these=rnlsconcept lons1s that the Alr Forcc 1s el ther vr l thholdlng " f1y1ng saucer"- lnfor-mat lon f rom the publ lc or c loaklng l t bcr ieath a secur l ty c lassl f l -cat lon, ThJ.s ls ur l tn le.

-3- MOTiE

( A 1+The names of the persons lnvolved 1n thc s lght lngs are.wl th-

held 1n respect of their pr lvacy. They are f reer- howeVer, to Saywhat they piease.- I ieport i whlch dlvul le the capabl l l t les of ouralrcraf t l i 'aair , ;and blectronlc equlpmeri t are cLassl f led forobvlous reasons. Af f othcr lnforniat lon wl th r"espect to s lghf lngs1s a matter df publ i -c record.

Another mlsconcept lon eenters about photographs of t ' f ly l r tg

saucer.s". The Alr Force does not possess photographs whlch provethe exlstence of t ' f ly tng saucersrt . Because st l l ] photographs, canbc so eas1ly faked, 6t t [er by uslng a mock-up or model 'agalnst a1eg1t|nate Lackground, or by- retouchlng the negablye', they arepr ict leal ly worthless as evidence. Innumerabl .e obJects, f rom ash-trays to wlsh baslns, have been photographed wh1]e sal l lng throughthe- alr. Many such :6trotos have been publistred wlthout ieveallngthe true, ldent l ty of the obJccts "

More at tent lor"r ls g lven to movlng plctures of unldent l f ledf ly1ng obJects s lnce they are more dl f f lcul t to fa lce, However,oniy a very few movle-type f1lns have beetl recel,ved by the AIIForle and they reveal on:.y plnpolnts of J-lghb mo'rlng aeross thesky. The A1r Force has been unable to irlentlfy the solrrce ofth6se l lghts, The lmages are' too smal l to analyze proper ly. Slnceownershlp of these f1lms remalns wlth the persons taklng them theA1r Force ls not 1n a posl t lon to Elvc t t renr out. The owner$ maydo wlth them as they please.

Al though hoaXes compnlse b 'ut a sma]} percentage of totalreports, sofi le of btrem prove to be the rnost scrrsatJ.onal and themost publ lc lzed. However, to lnsure that the Aln Force w1'11- notembarass 1nd1v1duals orr groups who are s lncere ln thelr bel le. fs orwho may be vlctlms of such hoaxes, the facts brought out 1n thelnvest lgat ions of these false reportg ane general ly not made publ1cUnfortrrnately, thls pollcy has often glven the 'erroneous ltnpresslonthat the A1r Force 1s del lberately denylng or wl thholdlng lnfonma-t lon whlch, l f reveaLed, would pr.ove the exlstence of "sauccrs".

i ft." Alr Force has stated 1n the pa't, and reafflrrns at the

I pr"r*it 'tf.ti l r- th;t unexpf ifned aerla]- phenomgna--aTe not a secretI weap.x, rnlssite, Or alrbraft , developr:cl by the United States.I i i;;;";i ;h; trrn6e mltltary: d*ipartrnents nor anv other agcncv 1n t

J A;; ;d*""t- ls conductlng 6xpei lrnents,- clapslf led ot ' otherwlse,| "itrt-

flyhg 6U jecis *r,f6rt cbuld be a basls for tho reported phe-

I nomena.r-

a, 'm., tnkon - rrrr at t l - ,hent '1c r nce has beertIJy the same tolcen, 1'ro authentlc physlcal evlderecelved est inf fshlng l f te exlstence of space shlps f rom otherplanets.

END

-4-

1rlv

DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCEOff lce of Publ lc Informat len

Washlngton 25t D. C.

U. S, Alr Fcree Summary of Eqents and . Informat lonConcernlng the Unldent l f led F1ylng ObJect Program

The A1r Force feels a very dof ln l le obl lgat lon to ldent l fy andanalyze thlngs that happen 1n t f re alr that may have 1n them menace tothe Unlted States anc1, beeause of that feel lng of obl lgat lon and Pur.-sul t of that lnterest , the Alr Force establ lshed an act lv l - ty known asthe Unldent l f led Fly lng ObJect Program.

Thls program was establ lshed 1n 1947 when unldent l f lecl fLylntsobJects were belng reported ln.var lous parts of the Unl ted States.Th; reports of sfehtfhgs reached a pealr of 1,70q In 1952 and droppedto a tbtaf of 429-1n f913. Dur lne the f l rst n lne rnonlhs of 1954 only254 slght lngs werd reported,

From a survey of the volume of s lght lngs recelved by the Alr .Force, 1t has been determlned that qvqr'-gggg-!-ce-eLare explalnable asbe1ngknownobJecrs.Gener,airy i i i r ,co-r , i recaie-gory of l bal loons, alrerat t , astronomlcal bodles, atmospher lc ref lec-t1ons, ancl b l rds. A11 r 'eports of unldent l f led f ly lng obiects resul tf rom el ther radar or v lsual s lght lngs.

Explanat lons pertalnlng to s lght l .ngs reported frcm ml l l tary andc1.v111an radar fac111t les aCe as fo l lows:

1. Temperature lnverslon ref lect lons can glve a return on aradar scopa that 1s ag Bharp as that recelved. f roni an alrcraf t .Speed,s of . these returns reportedly range froni 'zero to fantast lc rates,The t 'obJect$r ' a lso appear to move 1n a'11 dlrect lons. Such. s lghLingshave resul te 'd 1n many frul t less lntercep! ef for ts.

To posslbly bear out the theory of temperature lnverslonref leet lon 1s an lncldent whlch occurred ln January l -95I near Oakr ldge,Tennessee.. TWo A1r Force alrcraf t at tempted to lntercept an unldent l*f lorr r rn l r ioot t t 'and aCtual ly eStab] lshed a fadar t t lgCktt on the object .rh; ; '

" i i i i "o"; ; ; ; ;1f f i6 * i . ' T,oob-iu*t .--rr 'e unicientrr led obJect,

accordlng to tLrelr radar, appeared to be at an elevat lon of 10 to 25degrees from thls al t1tude, Three passes were made 1n an abNempt toclose on the ob,Ject. fn each lnstance the p11ots reporbed that thelrradar 1ed them f l rst upward and then down toward a specl f ld polnt onthe ground. (One sclent l f le theory holc ls that l1ght can be ,s1m1lar lyref lected from a layer of warm a1r above the earth. I f th ls provesto be correct , many vlsual n lght s lght lngs could be accounded for. )

2. fonlzed elouds have caused some unldent l f led radar returns.Ttruf lderstorms are ldent l f lab1e by radar and radar returns have alsobeen recelved from 1ce format lons 1n the &1r, bal loons, ground ref lec-t1ons, f requency lnterferenee between other radar stat lons, and wlnd-born obJects, Obvlor. ls ly, euch returns are very dl f f ,1cul t to ldent1fy,

1pec1a11y when t t rey oecur dur lng darkness.

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ISSUED ABOUTocToBER, 1964

MORE

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A1F,// \ L u3,

The radar screen has Plckedf lock of ducks. F11ght lntercepblons

up blrds and 1n one case aproved these Phenomena'

An explanat lon of known types of v lsual s lght lngs are as

fol lows:

1. Present-day Jet al rcraf t , f ly lng at -great. speeds and hlgh

al t l tudes, ai .e of ten i r ls taken for-unknowfi obJects by the untralned

observer, . Sunl lght ref lect lons f rom the poI ls!9d-st ' r r faces of a1r-craf t can be s"" i p la ln1y even when the alrcraf t l tsel f ls too d1s-

tant to be vis lb le. The exhaust of Jet a l reraf t 9p1ts a t ra1l and

often thls 1s seen rather than the alrcraf t l tse1f.

Z. Weather bal loons account for a substant la] number of s lght-

1ngs. These bal loonsp Sent to al t l tudes of 4OTOOO feet and i i lgher 'are launched from vlr tuaLly every a1rf1eld ln the country ' - They are

macle of rubber or potyethyiene, ivrel ] as they galn aLt l tude, have;; ;y good ref lect lve qual i t fes, carry smal1 l1ghts when I 'aunchedafter:dark, ancl can be seen at very hlgh al t l tudes.

3. In addl t lon bo the ordLnary weather ba11oon, huge 9o-footbal loons, whlch Sometlmes dr l f t f rom coast to coas' t , are used forupper a1r researeh. These bal ]oons also have a hlghly ref lect '1vesirr face and are ' r1s1bld at extrenre al t l tudes.

l+. Frequent ly, unr isua]Iy br lght meteors and planets wl11 cause'a f ' l r r r r -w of neport i , somet lmes froni re lat lvely exper lenced observers.q

., " '

A , t certaln t lmbs of the year, Ventts, for lnstance, 13 low-on lhuhor lzon and w1]1 app.ar Lo change color and move errat lcal ly due tohazy atmospher lc cbndl t lons. Slnce the gtars are chanted and mostof t f retr character lst lcs known, many cases are t raced to them'Meteors on the other h6nd are 6g rai fe s lngle-dlrect lon movement and

are. only v ls lb le for a few seeonds. Meteor act lv l ty ls rnore commonat certaln t lmes of the year, than others, ancl reports of UFOts haveshown a tendeney to lncrease dur lng these per lods.

5, Some cases ar lse whlch, on the basls of fnformat lon recelvecare of a welrd and pecr- i l lar nature. The objects dlsqlay errat lc. .movementS and phenomenal Speeds. Slnee maneuvers and speeds of th lsklnd eannot be traced dlrect ly ' to alrcraf t , bal loons, or known astro 'nomlcal sources, l t ls Oel leveci ' that they are ref lect lons f rom ob-

Jects rather than belng obJects bhemselves' For example: supposewe wor. t ld hold a mlrror- ln t iand under a l lght , causlng a ref lect lonon the ce1L1ng. Only a sI lght , qulck movement of the hand wouJdresul t tn err l t lc movements-and fhenomenal speeds of tLre ref lectedbeam, Ref lect lons may be proJected to c louds and haze both f rom theground and alr . Many thln-gs whlch are common to the .sky have h1ghlyief lect j ,ve quai t t t , :s l such as. bal loons, alxeraf t , and clouds. Accu-rate speeds are also dl f f lcul t to determlne due to the 1nabl1l tyof the reporter to Judge dletance, angles, and t lme

6, Bi ,1 l l "1ant f lashlng l lgnts that somet lnres appear red andwhlte in color have b'een repor-ed by observers. Thls type hu.g beentraced to a new 1lght lng sy-stem of bommerclal a l r11nes and m111Earyalrcraf t . Atop th; ta l f sect lon of these alrcraf t h lghly ref lect lvered and whlte f lasher type l lghts have been lnstal led and are manyt lmes mlslnterpreted by the ground observer.

MORE

In the analysls and lnvest lgat lon of the radar and vlsual - A Is lght lngg descr lbed, there are some yardst lcks whlch have been

n lestabl lshed from exper lence and trends to rneasure and at tempt todetermlne the source of UFOts. Some of . these are general 1n natureand are bubJect to change as new sclent l f lc and factual lnfonmatlon1s recelved. I t shoufd be remembered that any obJect 'v lewed from agreat dlstance appears to be round. Near ly *a11 the slght lngs reportedare descr lbed as round and would tend to lndlcate that most of theobJects are at a gre&ter 'd lstance from the observer than 1s general lyest lmated.

Anothen mlsconcept lon centers about photographs of unldent l f ledf Iy lng obJects. At best the maJor l ty of photographs have provennon-concluslve as evldence.to th ls program rnalnly due to type camerasused. Also, t t rn lght be ment loned that because st1I l photographs canbe so east ly faked, €1then by uslng a rnock-up or model agalnst alegl t lmate background, or by retouchlng the negat lve, they are worth-Jess as evldence. Innumdrable obJects, f rom ashtrays to wash baslns,have been photographed wh!.1e sa1l1ng through the a1r. Many suchphotos have been publ t rghe$'wl thout reveal lng the t rue ldent l ty of theobJec.ts.

More at tent lon 1s glven to mo'r lng plctures of unldent l f led f ly-lng obJects stnce they are more d1ff1cul t to retouch. However, onlya very few movle-type f1lms have been recelved by the A1r Force andthey reveal only plnpolnts of l1ghb movlng across the sky. The AlrForce has been unable to ldent l fy the source of these l lghts becausethe lmages are too smal-l to analyze properly, strnce ownershlp ofthese f1lms remalns wl th the persons taklng them, thre A1r Force 1snow 1n a posl t lon to glve them out.

The dl f f lcul ty of evaluat lng reports of a l l types ls basedlargel-y upon the lack of baslc data suruoundlng the slght lngs. Thedrop 1n slght lngs dur '1ng 1953 1s largely due to the lncreased. accuracSrand the completeness of reports belng recelvedn To be of va1ue, areport should lnclude such baslc data as s1ze, shape, composl t lon,speed, a1t1tude, dlrect lon, and the maneuver pattern of the obJects.Wlthout such lnformat lon, t t 1s almost lmposslble to establ lsh theldent l ty of the obJect s lghted. In add1t1on, a recent study has showna dlrect correlat lon between the number of s lght lngs reporteO anO thepubl lc l ty glven to nsaucersn by the nat lonrs press.

The A1r Force took a fur ther step 1n ear ly lg53 by procur lngvldeon cameras for the purpose of photographlng thls phenomena. fhesecameras were dlstr lbuted to var lous nr111tary 1nstal lat1ons. Thls type:amera has two l -enses, one of whlch takes an ordlnary photograph, andbhe other has a dl f f ract lon grat lng whleh separates i r l r r t rnto- r iscomponent par" ts, Thls alds 1n determlnlng the composl t lon of the ob-Ject photographed. A smal l number of photographs i rave been recelvedfrom thls camera; however, only l lght spots of no deta1l have beenlndlcated 1n the photos to date. As moie photographs are taken bythese observers, 1t 1s be]1eved that a grebt oeir br the mystery i r r r rbe l lfted from the program.

7

f rheI 'ecelvedi .oserved

l__oulect or

Alr Force would 11ke to state that no evldence has been - i

whlch would tend to lndlcate that the unl ted states 1s oelng iby rnachlnes from outen gpace or a forelgn government, No - ipart lc le of an unlcnown substance has been-recelved and :

-3- MORE

,A1E

no photographs of detal l have been produccd. Thc photographs on

franb arel at best , only large and smal l b lobs of l1ght wh1chl ln

most cases, are exP1a1nab1e.

I t nay be concluded from the above and from past exper lence thatno new stgnl f lcant t rends have devcloped out of thesc cases. , ' Iherewas an lncreaie in pub1lc lnterest whlch occurred slmultaneously wl th

the publ lcat lon of var lous books and art lc les on the subJect i however 'th ls t rend has been noted several t lmes pneviously.

In order to overcome the lack of baslc data, and to standardlzeal l reports, a detal led quest lonnalre 1s now sr-rbmlt ted to each,personreport ing'an unldent l f led ae.r la] obJect. I t 1s fe l t that the lnfor-mat lon thus obtalned w111 lcwer st f l l rnore the number of unexplaincdslght lngs.

For observers who wlsh to report unloent l f led aer1a1 obJect$ethe Alr Force would vrelcome , the lnformat lon. Attached to thr ls report1s a br lef baslc summary form. I t would be appreclated 1f observerswould send the completed form to t l re nearest Al i 'Force Base.

I f and when new developments turn up 1n thls progran, the A1rForce w111 keep the publ lc lnformed.

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nar flrst preparoal t\ 1952 at the rcqucrt of the CIA by A1r Forc. contlactorsancl the ProJcct Blue Book staff, for pros.ltatloa to a panel of sclontlsts earlyln 1953. (Sco E.J.Ruppeltrs book [The Report on Unldentlfled F1ylng obJcctsrr,Doubleday, fl.rst edltloar .sp. pp. 293-2}.t for the background of thls Panef.)In Junc, 1p66, one of thc Pancl nenbers, appearlJlg on e CBg TV Speclal Report,pubJ.lcly naneil the CfA at ths rsgercyr (unaened by Ruppclt) vhlch had palrl forthe Pancl,! s actlvltles.

gthough th€ BlEc Book Report No. 1l+ yas nad6 pubHa lu Octobvr 1955 .secpage D5), tbe Palel-rs r.port (page 82) ua! kept secret unt11 glven to MaJ. D.E.Keyhoe 1! early J.tl8, for usc ln a racllo lntervlcy, I ther vrote to the CIA toget the nat-_rlal., anal (BGC l€tter on p. 82) thc Pane1 rcport ras glrren to ne onilprll 91 1918, f6t dlstrlbutlon. I then vrotc to oaoh Pa"n61 nenb6r, antt to otherr.to try to clarlfl th6 purpose aril neanlng of tbclr r.port. Selectlons fron thersplles vhlch I rocclved ar€ r€produced otr pag€r 83 to 35.

Note tbat the na{n purposc of tbl's Panel study, lnsofar es the CIA vas con-oc!!etl, spparegtl.y vrs to prepsro for e tcst program to se6 rrhy peopls reactealstrolgly to trflylEg laucerr slghtjrgs. (Scveral polnts ln the letters touchlngoB tbls ar€ ln(llceted by narglnal notes rrSee Pagc Bl.n) hon thls, the CIA nlghtbave rrisbetl to derlvc aon€ ulofuL psychologlcal. rrarfarc tecbnlques.

- .Ibe slCllqg r-eport_quotett by MaJ. Keyhoc 1n h1s book nFlylng Saucers--Top9ectetrr pp. 18-201 ba6 all the samarks of a crA rfieLal evaluatloin of such a'psycbologlcal warfare glmlcl. S-eE nI conoegts on tbl.s 1n ny artlcle (on p. 5O)" l l t open Letter to saucer-Rcs-carchersn, 1n the nagazlnGrrFrylng saucer i r , . i , Iarch.1p62 (lssue Fs-2lr) publ-lshed by nay-iainer, tnh;;;i; wis";;;i"; 5b\o6.-

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1hc lctter reproctgced belou sho$s that the nornal cha:nel for sci€ntlfiestudy of govertrlttelt rroblens, the Natlonal Academy of Sclences. (vtrich would notlrave.accepted..such gi1 ngutat;nce" ;-.srraplng rts iui"r i ; i ; -hJ'n;; besr lnvltedto stualy the rrsaucern slgbtlngs, at thc iand tine tilt-tft bJl'ffi"n"r of scien_tlsts $as set-up. Thus one 1iy'be Justlfleal fn aouliini-irr"t'^tir"'u-s.co""r"r"nt:h99lg1y uantetl an inpartlal sclenilflc lnvestigatlon 5r tne liivrne s"u""rjnin 1953. Tbls ls rurther shown by th6 Governnenl,s fallure to aa6pt or to oub-I1sh the recomendatlons glven by tbe pa.nel ln pat.e"upl 3-oi-tir"i'r'r6po"icil"s2),

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A lcttcr fron r gcientlrt, not on tb'Panclr sho vrotc to PaneL nenbors ho

kaorr'acking about thc Rcport, tn 1958'

May 20, 1958

Mr. Leon Davidson64 Prospect StreetWhite Plains, N.Y.

Dear Mr. Davidson:

I received one verbal and one wri t ten anawer to

my query. Tbe wri t ten anawer wae qui te def in i te ' The releage

had been wri t ten in i lgovernmenteseI Purpoaely, but i t was not

expected that there would be any release' There was to be no

further statement from the group. A gecond man told rne rnore

definitely that he was agtonished at the wording of the docurnent

that he had, presurnably signed. He agreed with rne about its

indefiniteness and thought that it would do harm' But then he

pointed out that no matter what you said the flying saucer people

would get you sornehow or other.

If I ha.r of anything more o{ interest I wiil keep

you informed, I f ind Ruppelt 's let ter interest ing and certainly

it throws iight on some of the activities of that agency' In rny

opinion it further verifies Ruppeldincornpetence for the job tlat

he was given. I mean this not as a cr i t ic iarn, becauge one can-

not alwaye control the assignrnent and doubtless he did the beet

he could. But I 've never seen a project worse handled than the

ear ly stages of the f ly ing saucer Program' I had one of thoee

"br i ; f ing sessiord' and part icular ly recal l one incident '

a In my emphasie that these were natural phenomena'

f sav mirages for exarnple, one of the men said i lsuppose that we

F - ( s.at t .d f l r a moment, that you are correct ' Doesnrt)€e

\ i , o. . t " to you that we rnight be able to use this inJormat ion in

Pace .1 reverse?"t I - - l r rYou mean as a counter rneasuref " I agked'

Qt Is | | "Exact ly l

, '

\\ "You mean you would l ike to uge thig phenornenon'

6ay, to produce an image of Chr ist over the krernl in?r '

"Yee that 'e an excel lent example, " he said '

I 'Absolute nonsense I " I repl ied' I then went on to

state emphatically that I waa not goirig to be muzzled by any con-

siderat ions of secur i ty or secrecy in th is develoPrnent ' As I recal l '

General Sanlord was present at these rneet ings'

Ae a resul t , they agreed to oPen up the Blue Book f i les

to me. In fact Ruppel t wae requested to br ing thern to rne

so that I could study thern. Well, not only did Ruppelt never

corne, but he further irnmediately mowed in to classify the fi les and

I was not Perrni t ted, as Keyhoe and others have indicated' to get

this informat ion. On one occasion' however, I was told to corne

over and see al l of the f i les and they would throw them open'

I went over to the Pentagon where the scient iat in

charge of this bureau irnrnediately pulled out great drawers of these

thing-s and said "now here you can See for yoursel f exact ly what is

in thern. " He said " I know you have secur i ty c learance. ' '

I asked him i f the f i les were c lassi f ied and that i f

anything that I happen to see in those fi les and wanted to quote it

would be sirni lar ly c lassi f ied. He said yes that I was not permit ted

to quote. I said I 'no thank youl t ' and thus avoided what rnight con-

ceivably have been a t raP to muzzle me.

Sincerely yours,

CIParb Cr The Current (f966) Air Force Reloase on Project Blue Book

Pagcs C-l thro-rgh C-8 coryrisc the coqplete tert of the doeumentlssued b5r the Alr Force in Febmary 1966 as its cument frpress

releasefr for ttre public. Tho only doletions (made necessary byl-inLtations of space) are a frsrrggested. Reading Listrr of books onastronory, atrnospheric phenomenar ete., whieh oonstituted page 6,and a Elreball Report Form which fonned page J.0. If desiredtthese mlsslng pages rnay be obtained fron the publLsher (see backcover for add.ress) at a nomina} charge to cover reprod.uction andhandLing expenses.

The cover letter fron the Air Force whieh aeconpanied this docu-rnent is reproduced on page C-4, occupying t^rhat was a large blankspace in thc or{.glnal- document. Pages 4 and 5 of the originai-doeurent, whieh were eaeh half-blanh, have been combined onpage C-J. Pages 6 and 10 have been ornitted, as stated above.

PROJ ECT

BLUEBOOK

I FEBRUARY 1966

C?

PROJECT BLUE BOOK

The United States Air Force has the responsibility under the Department of Defense for theinvestigation of unidentified flying objects (UFOs). The name of this program, which has been inoperation since 1948, is Project Blue Book. It has been identified in the past as Project Sign andProject Grudge.

Air Force interest in unidentified flying objects is related directly to the Air Force responsi-bility for the air defense of the United States. Procedures for conducting this program are estab-lished by Air Force Regulation 200-2.

The objectives of Project Blue Book are two-fold: first, to determine whether UFOs pose athreat to the security of the United States; and, second, to determine whether UFOs exhibit anyunique scientific information or advanced technology which could contribute to scientific or technicalresearch. In the course of accomplishing these objectives, Project Blue Book strives to identifyand explain all UFO sightings reported to the Air Force.

HOW THE PROGRAM IS CONDUCTED

The program is conducted in three phases. The first phase includes receipt of UFO reportsand initial investigation of the reports. The Air Force base nearest the location of a reported sight-ing is charged with the responsibility of investigating the sighting and forwarding the information tothe Project Blue Book Office at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio.

If the initial investigation does not reveal a positive identification or explanation, a secondphase of more intensive analysis is conducted by the Project Blue Book Office. Each case is objec-tively and scientifically analyzed, and, if necessary, all of the scientific facilities available to theAir Force can be used to assist in arriving at an identification or explanation. All personnel asso-ciated with the investigation, analysis, and evaluation efforts of the project view each report witha scientific approach and an open mind.

The third phase of the program is dissemination of information concerning UFO sightings,evaluations, and statistics. This is accomplished by the Secretary of the Air Force, Office of In-formation.

The Air Force defines an unidentified flying object as any aerial object which the observer isunable to identify.

Reports of unfamiliar objects in the sky are submitted to the Air Force from many sources.These sources include military and civilian pilots, weather observers, amateur astronomers,business and professional men and women, and housewives, etc.

Frequently such objects as missiles, balloclns, birds, kites, searchlights, aircraft navigationand anticollision beacons, jet engine exhaust, condensation trails, astronomical bodies and meteor-ological phenomena are mistakenly reported as unidentified flying objects.

The Air Force groups its evaluationsof UF'Oreports under three general headings: (1) identified,(2) insufficient data, and (3) unidentified.

C3Identified reports are those for which sufficient specific information has been accumulated and

evaluated to permit a positive identification or explanation of the object.

Reports categorized as Insufficient Data are those for which one or more elements of informa-tion essential for evaluation-?Te-mGFilflSome examples are the omission of the duration of thesighting, date, time, location, position in the sky, weather conditions, and the manner of appearanceor disappearance. If an element is missing and there is an indication that the sighting may be of asecurity' scientific, technical, or public interest value, the Project Blue Book Office conducts anadcl-itionaf investigation and every attempt is made to obtain the information necessary for identifi-cation. However, in some instances, essential inforrnation cannot be obtained. and no further actioncan be taken.

The third and by far the smallest group of evaluations is categorized as Unidentified. A sight-ing is considered unidentified when a report apparently contains att pertirGnt d[Tlffiessary tosuggest a valid hypothesis concerning the cause or explanation of the report but the description ofthe object or its motion cannot be correlated with any known object or phenomena.

IYPES OF UFO IDENTIFICATIONS AND EVALUATIONS

Therearevar ioustypesofUF0sight ings.Mostcommonarereportsof"@whichincludebr ightStarS,planets,comets, f i rebal Is,meteors,auroralstrea@-tial bodies. when observed through haze, l ight fog, moving clouds, or other obscurations or unusualconditions, the planets, including venus, Jupiter, and Mars have been reported as unidentif ied flyingobjects. Stellar mirages are also a source of reports.

Satell i tes are another major source of UFO reports. An increase in satell i tes reported as UFOstras co66aUout because of two factors. The first is the increase of interest on the part of the public;the second is the increasing numberof satell i tesin the skies. Positive knowledge of the location of allsatell i tes at all t imes enables rapid identif ication of satell i te sightings. reeping track of man-madeobjects in orbit about the earth is the responsibil i ty of the North American Air Defense CommandSpace Detection and Tracking System. This sophisticated electronic system gathers complex spacetraJfic data instantly from tracking stations all over the world.

Other space surveil lance activit ies include theuseof ball istic tracking and large telescopic cam-eras. ECHO schedules are prepared by theNASAGoddardSpace Flight Center at Greenbelt, Maryland,and schedules of the South/North equator crossings are prepared by the Smithsonian Institution atCambridge, Massachusetts. From the data produced bytheseagencies, satell i tes mistakenly reportedas UFOs can be quickly identif ied. Some of these are visible to the naked eye.

AircraJt account for another major source of UFo reports, particularly during adverse weatherconail i6iSShen observed at hiqhaltitudesandatsome distance, aircraft can have appearances rang-ing from disc to rocket shapes duetothe reflection of the sun on their bright surfaces. vapor or con-densation trails from jet aircraft wil l sometimes appear to glow fiery red or orange when reflectingsunlight. Afterburners from jet aircraftareoftenreforteaas uFos since they can be seen from greatdistances when the aircraft cannot be seen.

The Project Blue Book office has direct contact with all .elements of the Air Force and the Fed-eral Aviation Agency civil air control centers. All aerial refueling operations and special trainingflights can be checked immediately. Air traJficof commercial airlinel and flights of military aireraftare checked witlt the nearest control center, enabling an immediate evaluation of aircraft nii"trt*ivreported as uF]Js. However, since manylocalfl ights are not carried, these fl ights are probable causesof some reports.

C+JBalloons continue to be reported as UFOs. Severalthousandballoons are released each day from

mititffid civilian airports, weather stations, and research activities. There are several types ofballoons - weather balloons, rawinsondes, radiosondes, and the large research balloons which havediameters up to 300 feet. At night, balloons carry running lights which cause an unusual appearancewhen observed. Reflection of the sun onballoons at dawn and sunset sometimes produce strange ef-fects. This usually occurs when theballoon,becauseof its altitudes, is exposed to the sun. Large bal-loons can move at speeds of over 100 miles per hour when moving in high altitude jet windstreams.These balloons sometimes appear to be flattened on top. At other times, they appear to be saucer-shaped and to have lights mounted inside the bag itseU due to the sun's rays reflecting through thematerial of the balloon. The Balloon Control Centerat Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, main-tains a plot on all Military Upper Air Research Balloons.

Another category of UFO evaluatlons labeled Other includes missiles, reflections, mirages,searchlights, birds, kites, spurlous radar indications, hoaxes, fireworks, and flares.

Aircraft, satellites, balloons, and the like should NOT be reported since they do not fall withinthe definition of an unidentified flying obJect.

DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCEWASHINGTON

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY

Dcar lr[r. Ibvldro:

ELue Book Spclal Rcpor{ #flr vaa a onc t1nhavc no pJrna to rcplacc or narrirc ltr

I ar lnclootng tb. sturcnt rcDorg on P:loJcctJrour l.nfol:latloDo lotr nlLL nota fr6 tbla ncportanc ce.cntlaf\y tb. ran af tboe€ Eadc 1D Spoolal

Slnccrrly,

? ' ), //

. . r . /

JUt{ - 3 1966

rportr and, rc

BIur Eook fortbrt tb. conclutlonrmport, #Ill.

I AtebProJect BIue Eook

l,lro Leon Davldaon4+ nrospcct Strt{bltc Pla:Lna, l{cr lork

' / / ,

'ro,li:t'. .t/r&,:K7!t Cotonel, USAy'^tr-^ - /Chlef, Q/vi l BlanchCorrnunl4y Relattons Dlvlston

/ Off lce of Informatlon

TC5

CONCLUSIONS

To date, the firm conclusions of ProjectBlueBook are: (1) no unidentified flying object reported,investigated, and evaluated by the Air Force has ever given any indication of threat to our nationalsecurityl (2) there has been no evidence submitted to or discovered by the Air Force that sightingscategorized as unidentified represent technological developments or principles beyond the range ofpresent day scientific knowledge; and (3) therehasbeen no evidence indicating that sightings categor-ized as unidentified are extraterrestrial vehicles.

The Air Force willcontinuetoinvestigateallreports of unusual aerial phenomena over the UnitedStates. The services of qualified scientists and technicians will continue to be used to investigate andanalyze these reports, and periodic reports on the subject will be made.

The Air Force does not deny the possibility that some form of life may exist on other planets inthe universe. However, to date, the Air Forcehas neither received nor discovered any evidence whichproves theexistence and intra-space mobility of extraterrestriallife. The Air Force continues to ex-tend an open invitation to anyonewhofeelsthat he possesses any evidence of extraterrestrial vehiclesoperating within the earth's near space envelope to submit his evidence for analysis. Initial contactfor this purpose is through the following address:

PROJECT BLUE BOOK INFORMATION OFFICESATOIWASHINGTON, D C 20330

Anyone observing what he considers to be an unidentified flying object should report it to thenearest Air Force Base. Persons submitting a UFO report to the Air Force are free to discuss anyaspect of the report with anyone. The Air Force does not seek to limit discussion on such reports anddoes not withhold or censor any information pertaining to this unclassified program.

The Jollowing items are for internal use only and are not available fordlstribution to the public. These concern internal managemenTTnd proceduresfor forwarding UFO reports to the appropriate agency:

1. Air Force Regulation 200-2

2. JANAP 146

The Air Force has no films, photographs, maps, charts, or graphs of un-identified flying objects. Photographs that have been submitted for evaluationin conjunction with UFO reports have been determined to be a misinterpreta-tion of natural or conventional objects. These objects have a posltive identifi-cation.

The Air Force no longer possesses, and thus does not have for distribu-tion, outdated reports on Project Sign, Project Grudge, Blue Book SpecialReport No. 14, and outdated Project Blue Book press releases. Non-militaryUFO publications should be requested fromthepublisher, not the Air Force.

The Air Force willcontinuetoinvestigateallreports of unusual aerial phenomena over the United

415

TOTAL UFO (OBJECT) SIGHTINGS

YEARTOTAL

SIGHTINGS I.JNIDENTIFIED

(Compi led 1T Jan 66)

SOIIRCE

Case Fi lesCase Fi IesBIue Book, page 108Case Fi lesCase Fi lesBlue Book, page 108Case Fi lesCase FilesCase Fi lesCase Fi lesCase Fi lesCase FilesCase FilesCase Fi lesCase FilesCase FilesCase FiIesCase FilesCase Fi les

1 9471 948I 9491 9501 9511 9521 9531 9541 9551 9561 95?1 9581 9591 960I 9611 9621 9631 9641965

1221561862L0169

1 ,5015094875456?0

1,006627390DD'{

591474399562886

frw

t2I

222722

303424624l4t410t2t4l315t41916

646

C1

TOTAL CASES BY CATE@RY

AstronomicalAircra-ttBalloonInsufficient DataOtherSatelliteUnidentilied

TOTAL

ASTRONOMICAL SIGHTINGS

MeteorsStars and PlaretsOther

TOTAL

OTHER CASES

Hoaxes, Hallucinations,Unreliable neports andPsychologica-l CausesMissi les and nocketsR eflectionsFlares and Fireworksl"{ i rases md lnversionssearch and Groundl ightsClouds and ContrailsC ha-ffBrrdsRadar AnalysisPhoto Ana-lysisPhysical SpecimensSatel l i te DecayOther

TOTAL

STATISTICAL DATA FOR YEARS I953-1964

(Compi led I Nov 65)

1953 1954 1955 1956 195? 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 TOTAL

175 13? 135 222 341 23t 144 235 203 136 85 r23 216773 80 124 148 2' .8 106 63 66 17 68 73 7t 116??8 63 toz 93 114 58 31 22 3? 19 28 20 665?9 103 95 132 191 111 65 105 115 S4 59 99 124862 58 65 61 tzo 93 ?5 94 11 65 58 88 916000081802L691' : -82t424t7

42 46 24 t4 14 10 t2 14 13 15 14 19 23750e

'4f7 525 6?0- 1006 m 3eb EE? 5et Tti 3ee 562- 6dil

70 92 ?9 88 1?9 168 100 18? 119 95 57 61 12s5101 44 52 131 t44 56 40 45 ?8 36 23 55 805

4 1 4 3 18 7 4 3 6 5 5 7 67m m tu5- m -mT TSi TTA TTs m i36 -T5 m nm

15 6 18 16 37 29 t4 13 t7 11 16 3427132614721391374 6 4 3 2 7 11 I 3 3 0 2t4868357433,132415245630296149r28561326632t95345450020126143521412611032224

15 7 1 I 27 3 8 6 I 0 I 21124774632361 6 5 3 5 10 3 ? 4 15 3 8000001093343174095334246

-A sB- ib- -TT _lZb

ig- ?5 -eA -,n

ib- -86 -86

226835459

81472734874070ZJ

48=_vto

EE

STATISITICS FOR I9O5

(Compiled l8 Jan 1966)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JI'N JUL AUG SEP ocT NOV DEC TOTAL

ASTRONOMICALAIRCNAFTBALLOONINSUFFICIENT DATAOTHERSATELLITEUNIDENTIFIEDPENDING

TOTAL

ASTRONOMICAL CASES

10811 83254

11 8451000

45 35

1ll4I,

o2I

T3

41l

a

4Ic

I0

5-

210278230271473261201303?62742162415556942 19

1554241243102440000226

aI $ I3b m, lb4 10

101135

9tIr

OCT NOV DEC

69520131lf00

nno

41426135105516lc 3d le la

lonE2m

22l402

l l014

DC

t2 2455 2lO2361853 1263 t52016217

,6 Bn

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Meteors66822StarsandPlanets 3 I 3 2 0Other la lb 0 0 0

rorAl I0 I l l 1 2

(a) Solar Image (b) Moon (c) Sun (d) Reflected Moonlight, Parhelia, Moon (e) Reflected Moonlight (f) comet lkeya-Seki

OTHER CATEGORY

JAN FEB MAR APB MAY JUN JUL AUG

Hoaxes, Hallucinations,Unreliable Reports and

Psychologicalcauses 5 3 4 1 2 |

Miisiles affl Rockets I

Retlections I

Flares and Fireworks I

Mlrages and InversionsSearchandGroundLights 2 | 0 I 0 0

Clouds and Contrails 1

ChaffBirds | 2 2

Phvsical Specimens lc

Radar Analysis le lg

Photo Analysis zdl ld l i

Satel l i teDecay O I I I 0 1

Miscellaneous 2^b ?bt lh

TOTALlIE'856

t2a

2

a

2I

3lr

3gmn5x24sbbb

42

31I

0I

(a) Tracer Bullets (b) Misinterpretatlon of Conventional Objects (c) Metal Ball (d) Developer Smear (e) Anomalous Propagatron

it) fit"" (g) Electronic Counter Meaaures (h) Debris in Wind (J) No Image on.Fllm (k) Poor Photo Process (l) Free Falling Object

(m) False Targets (n) weather Returns (p) dmulsion Flaws (r) Ptastic Bags (s) Man on Ground (t) Lightnine (u) chemical Trails

from Research Rocket (v) Missile Launch Activity (rv) Gourd

TOTAL

SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL

3410

4

9

Ill

6t28

131ze

0

II

l l l1w

lm1j0101

th 3tuvteu5

2

IIt

1

2kj0

I

I

part D: Analysis of Project Blue Book speclal Report No. 1/r

lbis scction includes the fulI text of the First Editionr which con-

taincd certain press releases lszued in L955 at the tlne thatSpecial Report No. 1/" was alrnounced to the public. The materialw-hich appeared on the inslde covers and outsld.e back cover of theSecond inttion has been omitted., as being outdated and non-eubstantive.

flre Atr'R pff,-z docutrent (pages X-I to X-/r) which ie bound ln at thecentcr fold of thls edition was not lncluded in the first tt'ro cdl-tJ.ons, and should be ignored in arqr roferences to page nur:oberl.rt arfd not form part of tho contents of the orig:inal spoelal ReportNo. 1/*.-l[4d.itlonal single copi.es of the Afn 200-2 document may beroquested, free of charge, by wrd.ting to the publlsher at the ad-d.ress sholln on the back cover of thls book, enclosing a long self-add^ressed envolope bearing flrst-class postage. Give your ZIP-Code'

OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

WASHINGTON 25, D. C.

Dcoernbcr 7, 3956

I-EG ISLAT IVEAND PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Dear Dt. Davldeoa:

Refercnac your lettcr of llovubet 7l t I prcnmethat yur heve rccelvod a loaa oopy of tbe Bl.uc Bookfron the Nclt lork Offloe of Infornatloa Sctrlccs.lhat offloc $ar verbally lngt,ntctcal to Dall a aogfto you.

Rcgarflng ropnductlon of the ELue Book, tbcDcpartmnt of D'Efensc consldors thls to be your onrprtvate effalr ard nelt'ber dmlcg or approeca yourplan.

I tnrst thls satlsfaotorlly aartnrs yotrr qlrortlons.

Stncerely T-",

-.-,--, **xJa [*. "0..t-*.*r.-.-Pblllp K. AlLcn

Dopfiy, hrbllc Affalru

!b. Iao Davldson64 hospect Strcctlfblto Elrrnsr l{cv lork

I, j

rIIIn!IiI'j

ii

hrblisherts Statement

The letter on paPe D-3 frorn Gen. Kinney indicates that'the U.S.Air

Force has not d.lstrlbuted the full- 316-page ProJect Blue Book Special Re-

port No. I/+ because the cost would. have been prohibltlve. A letter from

A.F.Su"""tary Donald A. Quarles, dated July 51 L956, statest rr l t has been

estimated. that the cost of nrintlng enough copies for distribution to the

public thr.ough such outlets; as libraries and academlc institutlons would

be between $tO and $l-5 per copY. tl

This privately fLnanced. editlon of the Blue Book report is being ls-

sued. as a public ser,ric.. Through the careful eliminatlon of the bulk of

tho tables in the orlginal report, the slzo has been reduced to about 8O

pages, without loss oi a single wonl of the main text. The full Tables of

borrt"rrtr of the origlnal report have been retained, so that the reader may

know exactly what has been onr:itted. The only pulpose ln the omissicns

has been to bring the cost d.olrn to a reasonable level, So that widespread

distribution could be establi-shed.

It ls guaranteed that there has been no change, alteration, or edit-

ing of' ttre material on any page of the Report }io. 14 which is reproduced

heieln. Each page has bebn- reprod.uced photographlcally exactly as it is

ln the origlnal Air Force ed.ition. Every single page of the rnain text

has been rJproduced. No part of the text has been ornitted.

No authorr s name appeared on the orlginal edition, an{ tle title

page HaS exactly as shom on page I below. AnSr errors or faults of

io!i", etc., in the main bod.y oi ttre Repcrt No. 14 are those of the

origlnal Air Force author or authors'

The only ways in which the page arrangement of this copy differs from

the original Air frorce edition are as follol'rst

tr] The chl square tables on pages 62-67 and'^7O-75 of the original re-

pcrt were urrurrg"a one tatle per page. For oconorqy, these have been

ptacea two per page in this edit ion'

tZl Page 76 of the original editicn has been reoroduced in two parts, as

pBges +l ati--lO ("ip"t nage nurnbers) of this eCition, to emphasize

the dlvision betweln sections and avoid sn1lt-up of the text by the

Chl Square tables.

tl] The case numbers have been written in on the sketches of the twelve

nsood ,INKi'td;N';iciiiiNcs- (pages 52 to 6t ?! tlis ed'ition) ' The orlg-

iial ed.ition did not put such numbers on the sketches.

t+] The hea,]ing at the top of pa,ge 69 (this editj-cn) originally accounted

for two pr!u" of the rupo,{, and was incorn.rtted at the top of nage

69 tor econolryo

please note: The original- report assigned double nage numbers to sorae

pages, as is usual Goiernment practise when a blank prrre fo1-1ows a orinted

page.This isthecaseonpages2ofthlsedi t ion,whichwaslabeledpo["t n295 and' 296't Ln the original edition'

DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCEWASHINGTON

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY

7"3

15 November 1955

I t rust th is serves to rnake clear the posi t ion of the Air Force.

Dear Mr" Davidson:

I know that dur ing the past several rnonths you have hadconsiderdble correspondence with the Air Force and the DefenseDepartrnent regarding special Report #14, the Air Force projectBlue Book. The intent of this let ter is to inform you of our posi-t ion on the Blue Book as def ined by the secretary of the Air

-Force.

we distr ibuted a press release and a sum*ary at th€ t i rnethe report was of f ic ia l ly re leased. we rnade the ful l report avai l -able in the Inforrnat ion off ices of this Headquartere and in the AirForce Informat ion of f ices in New york and Los Angeres. The reportis st i l l avai lable at these placeso we did not distr ibute the reportr tsel f because the cost was prohibi t ive.

whi le the Air Force has never denied anyone access to theabove-ment ioned rocat ions for the purposes of e i ther reading orcopying the report , we have not fel t just i f ied to expend publ ic fundsto assist in cornmercial reproduct ion of the report .

Since rely,

&v*ANDRE \ry/J. KTNNEY IBrigadie'r General , USnlfDirector of Informat ion Services

Mr. Leon Davidson54 Prospect Streetl l rh i te Plains, New york

Analvsis of the ProJect Blue Bogk Reporb 19. 14

W Dr. Leon Davidson

II\tt

tI

ItI

The Blue Book Report No. 14 ls roproduced ln tbe pages followingthis analysls. The press release on page D-5 (which when lssued was [email protected] by the Surnrnary of the HLue Book Reoort, pages vil to lx ofthe orlsinal text) glves the background of the ALr Force's lnvestigatlonswhlch led. to the wrtting of Report No. 14 and lts release on October 25t

t955.

A good. history of the earLier Air Force lnvestigations of the nsau-

cersrf (iftf"tr hcfuae ProJect SIGN in L947-48 and Project GRUDGE in I9t+*5O)Ls given ln the book rrThe Report on Unldentifled Flying Objectsn by EdwardJ. Rupnelt (Doubleday and Co., ffub., Nent York, 1956).

It will probably be evident to careftrl readers of the Report No. 1/rreven in its fql-1 origLnal ed.ition, that the Air Force ilanalyslstr will notbear careful scnrtlny. fhroughout its frlnvestlgationsn, the ALr Force has

withheld lnfomatior fmm the public. As a result, Lt is ilposslbLe forinterested members of the general nublic to find out all that has been re-ported about flying saucers. Ttre publ-ic has not had acoess to al-l- thepirotogr""hs anil other evldence l.rnith the Air Force has anassed. on the zub-ject. Under these conditions, the public has not been abl-e to draw the

iorrect conclusions about the nature of the ilsaucersrr'

At the end of this analysls, before the body of the Bl-ue Book Report,

will be found. several paragraphs head'ed trsuggestion to the Readerrr'Thoughtful persons who rdsfi to learrr the facts about flylng saucers nay

llnd these suggestions of interest.

The analysis below willbe in questiorand-answer fom.

tf] What pereentage of the gaucer sighting cases rernaln trUnlorownil?

The nress release on the fsClng pase, and the sumary fron the reportt

were the bnty rnaterial nede readily avallab1e to the publle by-ProJect

Blue Book. ihe ful1 text of the report was essentially u:ravailable to

the pqblic, as shown in the Fecord' of Hearings of the House Subconrnlttee

olr ,Sovern*ent rrrfo"t"ii"" (Rep. John E. Moss, Chairman) for Nov' L5, ]..956'

Cne mlght wonder whether the Alr Force had octually wanted to keep the

fu11 report from the pubIlc, and lf so, why{

lhe answer may be fcr:nd. by reading tho text and' tables of the reportt

arr.ii. ecmparing 't,hls ',ith

the Sururoaryrdl;tdUlte$ publicly with tbe press re-

Iease. Tthe key to the ansr,rer is cbnta:ned in Flg. I (or1S. p..2d) and

T.,bles L7, A2, u"A lj-(orig. pp. 10? and 108). Flg. I sho*s that unknown

:,iohtin,,s'"o"ititute 33.f,, of-aff the object sightines-f9l wnign the re-

1..ir,:rji 'ity of iire sighl:."/ f" consi'dered nExcellentrt. Tables A1--43 ag3ee

,,j.rrr ,,,hi-si even if sigtrtings of lesser reliability are inglud'ed, the-pen'

(.-.,,ii1.:t,,-: sf U:-rl;rr:.'r.rn silfrtinls j-s not less than about 204' Note that tbe

i::-:'c,rriat,icn in Llie nain body of the report covers the years I9l+7-'L952'

ianalysis continues on Page f?)

IMMEDIATE RELEASE ocToBER 25, tg55 LT

AIR FORCE RELEASES STUDY ONUNIDEI{TTETED AERJ.AL.,0EJEOTS

NO. to53-555-6T00, Exr T5r3L

I

tAr[ilL.

The results of an lnvestlgatlon begun by the Alr Force in 1947lnto the f le ld of Unldent l f led-Aer la l o65ect l t ""-"aired fry ine--saucers) were rel-eased by bhe Alr Force ioday. '

No evldence of the exlstenee of the popularly-termed. ,,f lylngsaucers ' was found.

Th: report was based on study and analysls by a privatescient l f lc group under the supervls lon of t le elr"Technical_ Intel-l lgence center at Dayton; oh1o. s lnce the rnsCigat ion or the 1n-vestlgatlon more than seven ygars ogo, rnethods i i lo p"o"edures havebeen so reflned thai; of the i:f srg[ti.ngs reported durlng the flrstfour months of 1955 only three per-cent were ]lsted as n[mrow".--(nsunmary of the report ls at tached.)

! ̂ -commentlng on this report, rf lg-q^q-etary of the gtr Fg-r_ce Donald A,' -Qgeqles -e_al$: "on the basls oi.irrrS. sirroy:w

-i'.ifa""- ;il; ;;"*'*objects such'as those popurar ly descr lbed as rry in[

"urr"u*s haveoverflown the unlted.:States. I reet eertaln th;t 5r".r the unknown

!"!f$*e-p9,r-. q*eJr,,*t-*.9ou1d have been exprirned. as "orrJ..ritonat

phenomenaor l lruslons 1f more complete observatlonal data had ueen avallable.

"However, we are now enterlng a perlod of avlation technologyln whlch alrcraft of unusual conrfg;ri iro" and fl lght characterls-t lcs w1l l begln to appear.

"The A1r Force and the other Armed servlces have under develop-ment several vertlcal-rls1nsr hlgh p."io"*unce alrcraft, and asear ly as fast-year a propelr6r oirvbn-vertr"ar-" is in[ arrcraf t wasf lown- The A1r Force wi l t f1y the r i rs i Jet-powered vert lcal-r ls lng alrplane 1n a matter oi oays.-- ! ' r ; have-another proJect undercontract wlth-AVRO Ltd., of Canadi, wfricfr could result ln disc-shaped alreraft.gorgo*hr! srmrrar i5 irr"-poprrlar concept of a flylngsaucer. An aval labld plcture, whire only an art lstsr goncept lon,couLd l l lustrate such an obJecg.. (plglgEt"; i i G"i i i i raur. arPictoriar Branch, Room zD7B6; nit j-7ffJir."rnthlle some of these may take novel forms, sueh as the AVROproJectr- they are dlrect- l lne d.escendents of convent lonaL alrcraf tand should not be regarded as supra-naturar or mysterlous. we ex_pect to develop atrplanes that- wi i r i ry-rgster, h lgher and perhapsfarther than present designs,_bgt tGt"wtr l st i r i -EuJy natunat lawsand lf manned, they w1ri-Jtr1l be manired by normal terrestrlat aj-r-men. other than reducing runway requlrements we do not expectvert lcal-r ls lng alrcraf t - to hav6 more-ortstandlng ml l l tary charac-ter lst lcs than convent lonaL types.

i

i ;j j

rl / -6

"Vert lcal-r is lng alrcraf t capable of t ransl t ion to suPersonlchorlzontal f l ight wfif be a new phenomenon ln o.rr sl{ies, and undercertaln condl t ions couLd glve the 1l Iuslon of the so-called f ly lngsaucer. The Department oi Defense w111 make every effort wlthlnbounds of s""rr*iby to keep the pubIlc lnformed of these developmentsso they can be relcogoized for what -they are.' l

Mr. O;rarles added: "I thlnk we must tecognLze that othercountr ies also have the capabi l l ty of developlng vert lcal-r ls lngaircraft, perhaps of unconventlonal shapes. However we are satls-fGa-;t €ni" t lme that none of the slghtlngs of so-calfed rflylng

saueers t reported in thls country were ln fact alrcraft of forelgnor ig ln, "

END

Attaehment

-2-

{D-7

Slnce the Sdnnaly glrres flgqres of Yl for the Unlsrown cases lnL95T-I954, md onLv fi for the Udmown cases Ln 1955 (up to I'{ay 5), ttls evltlent that persons not harrlng the firl-l reporb avallable would notIorou that fl. to M. of the cases had been left as Unlcrown in the nalnstudy. The fuimary absolutely fail-s to quote gII nurerical results forL9/v7--I952. Orne may surrise that the Alr Force did not want the pubIlcto licrow that such a hlgh percentage of the reports rernained Unlrror,m, andthat this was one reason for nsking the fu11 repor'u unavailable, for allpractlcal pur-Doses, to the pub1lc.

tZl What ls the 'neanlng and purpose of the Chl Square test (pages &'-76of the orlginal ed.ltion) ?

The paragraph at the bottom of page 6O and top of page 61 (orig. ed.)explaJ.ns the purpose of the rrChi Squaren test, and the statlstlcal theorylnvolvod ls d.escribed on page 61. The reason for maklng thj-s test wasslrnply thisr The author(s) of the report felt that lt mtght be possibleto show by thls test that the Unknolrn cases were realIy Just llke theKnorna eases, after all. If this could be shomr, it would then have beenslryIe to say that the Urrlrror,rns had been essentlally the same.'obJects asthe Knorms, and there would bave been no residual tfunknowntt t)pe of obJect(tlftying saucertf) to talk about.

As lt turned. out, the author(s) naa to adnLt, at top of p. 68 (orlg.)

Se!"Jhem"-uee_ y_enr*11-!t-1s--p*ebqF-iUtu.*tbq!*!-L_-*uabe[ps*r{eril!be*q,_q{e-_"asthe Knomrs. Btrt they refused to adrnlt that this meant that rrsaucersrlcould[ be a real t5rpe of novel obJect. Notice how they ear"y on the ctrtggleto prove that the Unlsrowrrs are the same as the Knornos, until at the endof the rr0hl Square Testrr sectton, they admit that the results are incon-eluslvo.

------*-

IZJ What ls the deflnition of {Flylng Saucern used ln the Blue Book Report?

0n p. 1 of the orlglnal terb, thlrd paragraph, a definltlon ls givenwhleh is used by the author(s) of the report. It lnrplles that some rsecret

military weaponil may be involved., by use of the worrls trFree World'r andnintmder alrrraft[.. There is no mention of frinterplanetary vehic]-esrleither from terrestrial or extra-terrestrial sources.

Also on page 1, ln the second paragraph, is a fscetious deflnition ofnflying saucer'r r.rhlch, lf adopted, would prevent any ldentification orerylanation of flying saucers, by its very worrling.

Unfortunately, the author(s) of the report, when refer"rlng to thedeflnition of rtfl-yin6' saucern, (as for lnstance in their Conelusions, orig.p. 9t, fourbh paragraph), nerely refer to ntflying saucersr(as definedon Page 1) il. This leayes somssrhat confused the questlon of which of thetwo deflnitions on page 1 they are refer"ring to.

r8

t

i!

"J

, lii

L+) Hor,; dld the author(s) arrive at the conclusion, qiven at the end ofthe flrst fu11 paragraph on orig. page 91, that tr...it ls still impos-sible to develop a plcture of what a rflylng saucerr l-s. n?

Persons trained ln science and engineerlng, and thoss educated in thefields of 1aw, accounting, business, medecine, or other disciplines inwhich logical ttr:inkins is a requislte, should be able to unravel the utternonsense eontalned Lb',the section of the report called rt The I I'lylngSaueerr Modeln, on orlg. pages 76--94. It should be sufficient to callattentlon to several faets:

(a) The author(s) founa only twelve cases reported, in enough detail tomerit conslderatlon. Anyone who has fol1or^red the subJect knows ofnaqy other cases of detailed sightlngs which would selrre as we11r orbetter, than the dozen selected for the Blue Book analysi-s.

(U) In d.iscussing these twelve detailed cases, the report ornits detall-ssuch as the names of the localities and other identifylng informationwhich there is absclutlly no reason to r.,rithhold. The reason for thlsmay be to try to hinder readers who rnlght want to compare other ver-sions of those same eases r,rith the versl-ons presented @ the report.

(") The sketches of the obJects ln the fuport have a certaln studiedawlorardness about then, as lf the arbist had been lnstrlcted to nakethe obJects look as different as posslble and as queer as possible.For exarryle, the sketch of Case III resembles two frankfurters lyingone across the otber. The arbist ls certainly a skllled draftsman;the shading v€ry clearly shows the cyllndrlcal- shapes of the franlc-furters. Yet the descriptlon given by the pilots in Case III speci-fles nan afuplane with a ciga:s-shaped body and stralgbt wingsn.T?ris sketch ls absurd as an illustratlon of that. Llko'dse, thestuange whlte narkings or openings on the Case IX sketches have norelation to tbe accoryarying tert.

(a) The failure to place the sketches of Case V-I and Case \IJII on thesame psge hid.es a very remarkable resemblsrtc@o

(") The key to the situatlon is forrnd ln the extra conditions throrm lnat the mid.dl-e of page 9t (or18.). Presrunably all- trrel-ve cases hadfulfilled such conditions or they wouId not have surrlved the weed.ing-out process. (See p. ??, orig.).- The prlze example is paragrapb (6)

on page $2. By throwlng case trl-I out at thls golnt, the author(s)wer-. {hen able to throw out Case I|JII ln par. (8), slnee the nateh be-tween these tnro sketches had been lost by ellninating Caso fl. Like-wlse, Case III uas ellmlnated because Case II hail been thrown out.

Tf

V

ve k"

tsl were the author(s) just i f ied on page 93 (or lg.) in sayingthe following?

ItIt may be that some roi)orts represent observaticns of not one butseveral elasses of objects that mkht have been rtflylng saucersrl how-everr the lack of erridence to confi:rn even one class l+"',.rtd seeln io nalcethis possibllity remoie. rl

This appears to be another ercamnle of faulty toglc. The author$s)had just thror,rn out cases because they did not rLsenrble (supposed.ly)'.nyother eases. This should be consldered evldence that there- naJr be morethan one class of t r f ly ing saucersrr. rn fact, at the top cf page 91 (or ig.)the author(s) list four categories of shapes, wirlch nrigirt be clnsid,:redto def ine four rrclasgesn of saucers.

The logical erzor here may be seen ln the paranhrase cf thequotation: rr l.Ie found many different ty,oes of saucers. l.ie couldjust one class. We could not f ind even cne class. I 'herefcre, wenot flnd rnore than one class. n rhis type of reasoning, in wirichauthor(s) of the Blue Book report indulged, is utterly'absurli.

t5] what are the l rnportant polnts in tho trconclusionsn on p. 9r+ (or lg.)?

The author(s) adn:it in the first sentence that they cannot }rrcve thattrflying saucersrt d.o not e>dst. In the last sentenee, they Jo not d.enythat saucers corrld. be novel governmgntal devices, ncw existing. \iowhereis there any discussion as to whether or not there is evidence to prove ordisprove that saucers nlght be erbraterrestrlal objects or devieee.

Lll t,lhat vitally inrportant technical aspect was cnitted from thr: nna'l'nsi sby the Blue Book Project?

At the botton of page 6 (or ig.) , i t is erqglained that, af ter the studywas well under way, lt v.ras found that there was a [...rr€ed for the defini-t ion of a new factor relat ing to the naneuvers of the object or objects. . . r l[Maneuvers rvould inelude the well-knovrn characteristics of hovering, verysharp turns, rapld speod changes, wobbly f11ght, swinging llke a pendulurn,etc.J The last paragraph of page 5 (or lg.) stetes tr . . .8t the t ine thatthe maneuver factor was deterrnined to be cri-tical, it was physically inr-pnaatLGable to.rrro€vs'luate the original data. Therefore, no eod.e formaneuverability has been included...rl

t8] l^lhat sigrificant change was mad.e in the categories provlded for finalldentifications, before the final report r^ras rritten and issued Qr the AirForce?

On page 12 (orig) the categorles ilfnsufficient Inforrnationrr and. rTJn-

lcnornmn are e>qplai.ned. The whole report ls written on the basls oi thosetwo categorles and the others 1lsted on page 10 (orif.). Hovtrever, a nostinteresting ehange may be obsenred on .trage 85 Grj,g.) which is page 82of this editi.on.

\a oove ----t

not f ind I{c:u-l-C I

xthe l

I/

D-1_O

It r"rttt be seen, ln the cod.es for Flnal ldentiflcation, that thecategory or{.ginally called ilRoekets and }4iss11es[, ln the early workof the ana\rsis, was changed to be call-ed ilfnsuffLclent Infomatlonfr.Llkewise, the final category of t?tlnknomn had orlginally been cal-lednElectrornagnetic Phenomenontr. (The typerrrltten strlkeovers and ehangeson page 295 (orig.) appear that way in the origlnal Air Force Edltlon,and-this editlon ls a trre photo-copy of that page.)

It ls lnteretting to specrrlate oa the roason for changing the narnesof these eategorles. Note that the obJects flnally rridentifled'f as lnthe nUnknowntr category lnclude almost all of the cases whlch would seemto be aetual "flytng laucerstr as the pubi-lc rrnd.erstands the tenn. There-fore, the fact that the ALr Force or{.ginally called this category trelectro-

rnagnetic phenomenonrr nay indlcate that the BLue Book lnvestlgatlve staffhad reason to b611eve that objects l-ike the typlcal- nflying saucern ntgbtbe electronagnetically pr"ope11ed. Thls ls of more than casual lnterestbecause of tho perslstent storles that circuJ-ate, which indleate thatnsaueers[ nake use of some system of electronagnetic prtpulsl6n'

Sussestlon to the Reader

After read.ing the BIue Book Report r"rhich starts on the next page, lfyou feel a desira to see the coryJ-ete set of tables and graphs (onlttedhere for reasons of cost) r Iotr nright try to bortour a coplt of the full-report fron the Air Foree. Wr{.te to the Secretaqy of the Ai-r Force,Pentagon Bu:llding, Washington 25, D.C., and ask for one of the loan copiesof Blue Book Special- Reporb No. I{.

If, after readlng the report as glven here, you feeJ- that the AlrForce should be able to glve a definite an$.ter to such specific questlonsas rfDo flrving objects of-(such and^ such) shape e>dst?', ioo ntght wr{.teto your Congnessm"n or Senator, or to the President of the United States,and ask hLs asstbance ln obtalning the answer to your specl-flo questionfrom the Alr Force.

On page 37 of the official transoript of the press conferenee ofMaj. Gen. John A. Samfonl at the Pentagon, July 291 7952, a questionwas askeC of the Gcneralt rrls Lt some very highly secret nsst weaponthat welre workJ.ng on thatrs causlng these flying saueer reporbs?tlThe General anshter€dl rWe have nothing that has no nass and unlimitedpowert n The tranocQt lndicates [Laughter] at that point, and. well ltrnight. If yor belleve that a more meanlngful antl definlte angwer Ls iaord.er from the Alr Foncer Xou ruight rrite to arry of the officials nen-tioned above for a speelfic answer to the specific question quoted inthls paragraph.

The publisher of thls edltion would be very happy to learn of anyresponses which nright be obtained b5r readers f&llorring any of thesesuggestions. A1so, ar{r conments from readers would be welcore.

/t

',."- 1'$liii5."ii ";'1;1""'' oo'* .rr;i1",'S,*rk"$r tt" BooK,"n to$','i*SJ;.: "lo.t' st'''r"

rut,5. !j"'+o-rtbreh.l REpoRT No. 14n ,:". foa"^rotf i,. Alj'-"

l; "1^;3i.I,gh"eh'r.ilroof*y rt '|,o*fori. 11 '

so{ -

'r"- , o.Q,r { '1 ' " ^ 'U' ^ T '

(ANALY$S OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBTECTS)

PROJECT NO. I OO73

5 MAY r955

AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE CENTERWRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR F'ORCE BASE

OHIO

No copyslght mat.r la l la contelncd ln th l r publ lc. t lon.

aL

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ORIGIN AND NATURE Or. DATA

REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECIIANIZED COMPUTATION FORM

Quest ionnaire . .

Coding System and Work Sheet

Ident i f icat ion of Working Papers.

Evaluation of Individual Reports . .

ANALYSIS OF THE DATA .

Frequency and Percentage Distr ibut ions by Character ist ics

Graphical Presentat ion . .

Advanced Study of the Data

Stat ist ical Chi Square Test

The "Fly ing Saucer" Model

Posi t ion of the Sun Relat ive to the Observer .

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

CONCLUSIONS

APPENDIX A. TABULATION OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE

DISTRIBUTIONS B Y CTIARAC TERISTICS

APPENDIX B. WORKING PAPER FORMS

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

Frequency o{ Sight ings by Year for Object , Uni t , and A1I Sight ings

Distri.bution of Evaluations of Object, Unit, and AU Sightings for All Years

Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings by Evaluat ion for Al l Years With ComParisons

vi i

I

3

4

4

67

IO

l4

la

lo

l6l660ao

94

255

l7

l8

r9

z0

zl

zz

z3

z5

Zt)

z7

z8

70

of Each Year for Each Evaluat ion Croup . '

F igure 4 Distr ibut ion oI Object Sight ings by Evaluat ion for Al l Years and Each Year

Figure5Distr ibut ionofobjectSight ingsbyEvaluat ionl t / i th inMonthsforAl lYears

Fieure 6 Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings by Certain and Doubtful Evaluat ions for

Al l Years and Each Year .

Frequer,cy of Object Sightings and Unknom Object Evaluations by

Months, 1947-1952

Distributi.on of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliabil ity Groups With

Evaluat ion Distr ibut ions for Each Group '

Distribution of Object Sightings Among the Four Sighting Reliabil ity

Croups for Al l Years and Each Year . .

Distr ibut ion of AI I Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups, Segregated

by Mi l i tary and Civi l ian Observers, With Evaluat ion Distr ibut ion

{or Each Segregat ion

Figure I I Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings by Reported Colors of Object(s) With

Evaluat ion Distr ibut ion for Each Color Group . '

F igure I

l ' igure 2

Figure 3

! ' igure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure l0

Figure l2

Figure l3

Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings by Number of Objects Seen per Sight ing

With Evaluat ion Distr ibut ion for Each Group

Distribution of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting With Evaluation

Distribution for Each Duration Group .

111

&'

Figure l4

F igure I5

Figure l6

Figure I7

18

t9

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS(Cont inued)

Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings by Months Among the Eight Drrrat ionGroups for A11 Years

Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings by Shape of Object(s) Reported WithEvaluat ion Distr ibut ion for Each Shape Croup .

Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings by Reported Speed of Object(s) WithEvaluat ion Distr ibut ion for Each Speed Group .

Distr ibut ion of AI I Sight ings by Observer Locat ion for AII Years and Each year . .

Comparison of Known and Unknom Object Sight ings by Colcr , 1947-1952

Page

30

3t

35

36

37

38

39

40

4t

4Z

43

45

46

48

49

50

5I

5Z

53

3Z

33

34

Comparison of Known and Unknom Object Sight ings by Number of Objectsper Sight ing, 1947-1952

Figure Z0 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sight ings by Speed, 1947-1952

Figure Zl Comparison o{ Known and Unknown Object Sight ings by Durat ion, l94T-1952

Figure 22 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sight ings by Shape, L947-1952

Figure 23 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sight ings by Light Br ightness, 1947-L952

Figure 24 Comparison of Monthly Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings Evaluated as AstronomicalVersus Total Object Sight ings Less Astronomical .

Figure Z5 Comparison of Monthly Distr ibut ion o{ Object Sight ings Evaluated as Aircraf tVersus Total Object Sight ings Less Aircraf t

Figure 26 Comparison of Monthly Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings Evaluated as Bal loonVersus Total Object Sight ings Less Bal loon,

Figure Z7 Comparison of Monthly Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings Evaluated as Insu-f f ic ientInformat ion Vdrsus Total Object Sight ings Less Insuff ic ient Informat ion .

Figure 28 Comparison oI Monthly Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings Evaluated as OtherVersus Total Object Sight ings Less Other

Figure 2p Comparison of Monthly Distr ibut ion of ObjectVersus Total Object Sight ings Less Unknown

Sightings Evaluated as Unknom

Figure 30 Character ist ics Pro{ i les of Object Sight ings by Total Sample, Known Evaluat ions,and Individual Known Evaluations, Wi.th Unknom Evaluations Supe rimpos ed . .

Figure 3l Frequency of Object , Uni t , and Al l Sight ings Within the g. S. , 1947-t952, bySubdivisions of One Degree of Latitude and Longitude

Figure 32 Distr ibut ion of Object Sight ings by Evaluat ion for the TweLve Regional Areas ofthe U, S., With the Strategic Areas Located .

Figure 33 comparison of Evaluat ion of object s ight ings in the strategic Areas of theCentral East Region

Figure 34 comparison of Evaluat ion of object s ight ings in the strategic Areas of theCentral Mi.dwest Region

Figure 35 comparison of Evaluation o{ object sightings in the strategic Areae of theCentral Farwest Region

Figure 36 comparison of Evaluation of object sightitrgs in the strategic Areas of theSouth Midwest Region , .

Figure 37 comparison of Evaluation of object sightings in the strategic Areas of theSouth WeBt Region .

1\/

/

Page

Figure 38 Comparieon of Evaluation of object sightinga in the strategic Areae of the

Figure 39

Figure 40

r rgure ar

Table I

Table I I

Table UI

Table IV

Table V

Table VI

Table VII

Table VIII

Table IX

Table X

Table XI

South Farwe8t Region , .

Diagram of a Celeet ia l Sphere.

Frequency of Object Sightinge by Angle of Elevation of the Sun, Intervals

of l0 Degrees of Angle.

Object Sightings

chi square Test of Revised Knoms Versus Unknoms on the Bagia of Number.

Duration of Obeervation .

54

)b

57

59Frequency of Object Sightings by Local Sun Tlme, Intervals of One Hour

Chi Square Test of Knoms Vereus Unknoms on the Basis of Color

Chi Square Test of Knoms Vereus Unknome-on the Basis of Number

60

6z

63

64

of

b6

bI

Chi Square Test of Knoms Veraua Unknoms on t] le Basis of Shape

Chi Square Test of Knoms Versus Unknoms on the Baeie of Duration of Observation .

Chi Square Test of Knoms Versus Unknoms on the Baeis of SPeed

chi square Test of Knoms vergus unknoms on the Basie of Light Brightness

chi square Test of Revised Knoms vergus unknoms on the Basig of color

ChiSquareTeetofRevieedKnomgVereusUn}nomeontheBasisofShape

ChiSouareTestofRevisedKnomsVergugUnknomsont l reBaeiaof

70

7l

7Z

73

74

75

Table XII Chi Square Test of Revised Knoms Versue

Table XIII Chi Squre Test o{ Revised Knoms Versus

Unknoms on the Baeig of SPeed

Unknoms on the Basis of Light Brightneas. .

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

I

SUIVIMARY

Reports of unident i f ied aer ia l objects (popular ly terrned " f ly ing6aucers ' r or " f ly ing discs") have been received by the U.S. Air Forcesince rnid-I947 frorn rnany and diverse sources. Al though there was noevidence that the unexplained reports of unident i f ied objects const i tuteda threat to the secur i ty of the U.S., the Air Force deterrnined that al lreports of unident i f ied aer ia l objects should be invest igated and evaluatedto deterrnine i f r r f ly ing saucers ' r represented technological developrnentsnot known to this country.

In order to discover any pert inent t rend or pattern inherent in thedata, and to evaluate or explain any trend or pattern found, appropriaternethods of reducing these data frorn reports of unident i f ied aerial objectsto a forrn arnenable to scient i f ic appraisal were ernployed. In general , theor ig inal data upon which this study was based consisted of i rnpressions andinterpretat ions of apparent ly unexplainable events, and seldorn containedrel iable rrreasurernents of physical at tr ibutes. T_;fs_*subject iv i ty of the datapresented a rnajor lirnitation to the drawing of ffi-ftmfeamfiiSiffi'";-6"t-"did not inval idate the appl icat ion of scient i f ic rnethods of study.

The reports received by the U.S. Air Force on unident i f ied aer ia lobJects were reduced to IBM punched-card abstracts of the data by meansof logical ly developed forrns and standardized evaluat ion procedures.Evaluat ion of s ight ing reports, a crucial step in the preparat ion of the datafor stat lst ical t reatrnent, consisted of an appraisal of the re.ports and thesubsequent categor izat ion of the object or objects descr ibed in each report .A detai led descr ipt ion of th is phase of the study stresses the carefulatternpt to rnaintain cornplete object iv i ty and consistency.

Analysis of the ref ined and evaluated data derived frorn the or iginalreports of s ight ings consisted of ( t ) a systemat ic at ternpt to ferret out anydist inguishing chaiacter ist ics inherent in the data of any of their segrnents,(Z)

^ concentrated study of any trend or pattern found, and (3) an atternpt

to deterrnine the probabi l i ty that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observa-t ions of technologic-al developrnents not known to this country.

The f i rst step in the analysis of the data revealed the existence ofcertain apparent s i rn i lar i t ies between cases of objects def in i te ly ident i f iedand those not ident i f ied. Stat ist ical rnethods of test ing when appl ied indicateda low probabi l i ty that these apparent sirni lar i t ies were signi f icant. Anatternpt to deterrnine the probabi l i ty that any of the UNKNOWNS representedobservat ions of technological developrnents not known to th is country necessi-tated a thorough re-exarninat ion and re-evaluat ion of the cases of objects notor iginal ly ident i f ied; this led to the conclusion that this probabi l i ty was verysrnal l .

The special study which resul ted in th is report (Analysis of Reportsof Unident i f ied Aer ia l Objects, 5 May 1955) started in 1953. To provide thestudy group with a cornplete set of f i les, the inforrnat ion cut-off date wasestablished as of thgg5[*9.f*125.A*-".k will accordingly be noted that thestat ist ics containJd in al l charts and tables in this report are terrninated

v11

with the year L952. In these charts , 3ZOL cases have been used.

As the study progressed, a constant prograrn was rnaintained for

the purpose of rnaklng cornparisons between the current cases received

after I January 1953, and those being used for the report . This was done

in order that any change or signi f icant trend which rnight ar ise- frorn

current developrnents iould be incorporated in the surnrnary of thie report .

The I953 and L954 cases show a general and expected trend of

increasing percentages in the f inal ly ident i f ied categor ies. -Jhey

also show

decreasin! p. . ."r t tages in categories where there was insuff ic ient inforrna-

t ion and those wherJthe phenornena could not be explained. This trend had

been ant ic ipated in the l ight of i rnproved report ing and invest igat ing pro-

cedures "

Off ic ia l reports on hand at the end of 1954 totaled 4834. Of these,

425 were ptoduced in I953 and 429 in 1954' These 1953 and 1954 indi-

v idual reports (a total of 854), were evaluated on the sarne basis as were

those received. before the end of" L952. The resul ts are as fo l lows:

'16loBal loons

Aircraf t

Astronornical

Other

Insu{f ic ient Info

Unknown

20To

2SYu

- 13%

As the study of the current cases progress.ed, i t became increasingly

obvious that i f report ing and invest igat ing procedures could be further i rnproved,

the percentages of those cases which contained insuff ic ient inforrnat ion and

those rernaining unexplained would be great ly reduced. The key to a hlgher

percentage of "olnt ion"

appeared to be in rapid I 'on the spottr invest igat ions

Ly trainJd personnel . On t f te basis of th is, a revised program was estab-

f is f rea by AF Reg. ZOO-Z Subject : I 'Unident i f ied Fly ing Objects Report ing"(Short Ti t t re: UFOB) dated 1Z August 1954.

This new prograrn, which had begun to show rnarked results before

January 1955, providlea pr irnar i ly that the 4602d Air Intel l igence Service

Squadron (Air Oefense Cornrnand) would carry out al l f ie ld invest igat ions.

This squad.ron has suff ic ient uni ts and is so deployed as to be able to arr iveI ton the spotr twi th in a very short t i rne af ter a report is rece, ived- After

treatrneni Uy t f , . 4602d AISS, al l inforrnat ion is suppl ied to the Air Technical

Intel l igence Center for f inal evaluat ion. This cooperat ive prograrn has re-

sul tedi s ince I January I955, in reducing the insuff ic ient inforrnat ion cases

to 77c and the unknown cases to 3lo, of the totals

The per iocl I January 1955 to 5 May 1955 accounted for l3 l unident i f ied

aer ia l objeci reports received- Evaluat ion percentages of these are as fo l lows:

v111

ril:

Bal loons

Aircraf t

- 26To

- ZT'IO

Astronornical - 237o

Other - Z0%

Insufficient Info - 77o

Unknown - 3Yo

A11 avai lable data were included in this study which was prepared bya panel of scient ists both in and out of the Air Force. On the basis of this

- .*-q4v-it. is belieygd thst .1!1 ,thg u4identified..aerial o-Hse.€-*c6!:1d'htt*;'t-.'e'n- 9l-n_llingd if rno:9, co+pLete,,obs,s,r.v1!iena_l.da$a. ha.4 beg{r. qvqilablp., . .Insofar

as the reported aerial objects which st i l l rernain unexpiairred are conc-rned,there exists l i t t le inforrnat ion other than the i rnpressions and interpretat ionsof their observers. As these i rnpressions and interpretat ions havs beenreplaced b-y the use of i rnproved rnethods of invest igat ion and report ing, andby scient i f ic analysis, the nurnber of unexplained cises has decieased-""pidlytowards the vanishing point.

Therefore' on the basis of this evaluat ion of the inforrnat ion, i t iscousidered to be highly i rnprobable that reports of unident i f ied aerial obJectsexamined ln this study represent observat ions of technological developrnentsoutside of the range of present-day scient i f ic knowledge. t t is enrphai izedthat there has been a complete lack of any val id evidence of physical rnatterin any case of a reported unident i f ied aerial object.

x ,no,

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XHIBIT B8

F AN IBM CARD

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Finql Elcvol ion Or i cnlofion

Di roppooroncc Boor ing lni l lo l Elcvof ion

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In i t io l Ecor ing

Light Br ightnorr: l - € i . in . r ) . r i r ( ' r i lo i

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Numbcr.I o l j -NIJo+Jrt@;F6:;oU Spcod

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oi: t - Nl j lo v:1 6 o! j r - a i io) ;How Observcd

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Group

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oi ; - N:;o sr ;6 ngF !o! ' r , : :

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o : ; F cJ lEl v l ;6 (o i ; r c.r l r 'o i :

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t l . : .5 q 1-.D

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:a r ce : ' , cr ; I Hundrcdrh g

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o:1.- &:J l im e" j rn

d) i j ur

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d i Minuis

T d; : Hours

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Incidont Ssr iq l Numbcr

L1Sighr ing ldent i f icqr ion

Subrcr io l Numbcr

Scr io l Numbcr

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N., o s , qt n. , F . , . . tn. ; li lNo

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315 and 316

INTRODUC TIONxol, I?*5, !{Frcu oF r},rFoRMATro}t sERvrcs,l!ubi i ; f rf , , . . , . :rt lu. 'r i l i . , , l" ion

In .Tune PffglVi KounbfhvA)r,'nglg-ija'"npipp. Idaho, bus ine s s rnan andp r iv ate prl oq*iffi UlfgiF:'iepd'4e a i'nf [iJ*+'"]i 3[

" " i ghtin g of a c h a i n l i k e

forrnat ion of dIJcj"sl fa/ 'do{B$eBtt tcnear Mount Rainieir , 'Washington. Result-

ing newspaper publ . ic i ty of . th is incident caught the publ ic interest , and,short ly thereafter, a rash of reports of unident i f ied aer ia l objects spawnedthe terrntr f ly ing saucersrr . Dur ing the years s ince 194V, rnany reports ofunident i f ied aer ia l objects have been received by the Air Force frorn rnanyand diverse sources,

The unfortunate terrn I ' f ly ing saucerrr , or t r f ly ing discrt , because ofi ts widespread and indiscr i rn inate use, requires def in i t ion. Many def in i -t ions have been of fered, one of the best being that or ig inated by Dr. J.Al t ren Hynek, Director of the Ernerson McMil l in Observatory of The OhioState Universi ty, who has taken a scienJi f ic interest in the problern ofunident i f ied aer ia l objects s ince 1949. Dr. Hynekts def in i t ion of the terrnisrrany aer ia l phenornenon or s ight ing that rernains unexplained to theviewer at least long enough for hirn to wr i te a report about i1"( 1) . Dr. Hynek,elaborat ing on his def in i t ion, says, r rEach f ly ing saucer, so def ined, hasassociated with i t a prebable l i fet i rne. I t wanders in the f ie ld of publ ic in-spect ion l ike an electron in a f ie ld of ions, unt i l I capturedt by an explana-t ion which puts an end to i ts existence as'a ! f ly ing saucerrrr( l ) .

This def in i t ion would be appl icable to any and al l of the s ight ingswhich rernained unident i . f ied throughout this study. However, the terrnrr f ly ing saucers" shal l be used hereafter in th is report to rnean a noveI,airborne phenomenon, a rnani festat ion that is not a part of or readi ly ex-plainable by the fund of scient i f ic knowledge known to be possessed by theFree World. This would include such i terns as natural phenomena that arenot yet cornpletely understood, psychological phenornena, or intruder air-craf t of a type that rnay be possessed by sorrre source in large enoughnurnbers so that t r lore than one independent rnission rnay have been f lownand reported. Thus, these phenornena are of the type which should havebeen observed and reported rrrore than once.

Since 1947, publ ic interest in the subject of unident i f ied aer ia l objectsf luctuated tr lore or Iess wi th in reasonable l i rn i ts unt i l the surnrner of 1952,when the frequency of reports of s ight ings reached a peak, possibly st i rnu-lated by several ar t ic les on the subject in leading popular rnagazines.

Ear ly in 1952, the Air Forcet s curnulat ive study and analysis ofreported sight ings indicated that t t re rnajor i ty of reports could be accountedfor as rnis interpretat ions of , known objects (such as rneteors, baI Ioons, oraircraf t ) , a few as the resul t of rn i ld hyster ia, and a very few as the resul tof unfarni l iar rneteorological phenornena and I ight aberrat ions. However,

(l) Hynek, I . A., " Unusual Aerial Phenomena", Iournal of rhe Optical Sociery of America, 4g (4),pp 311-314, Apr i l , 1953.

l0

77

a signi f icent r ts bv rel iable obser

rnained unexplaiqgsl Al though no evidence existed that unexplained reports

of s ight ings const i tuted a , rhysical threat to the secur i ty of the U. S. ' in

March, 1952, the Air Force decided that al l reports of unident i f ied

aer ia l objects should be invest igated and evaluated to deterrnine i f ' r f ly ingsaucerst t represented technological developrnents not known to th is country.

Original ly, the problern involved the preparat ion and analysis of about

1r 300 reports accurnulated by the Air Force between 1947 and the-"end of

March, 1952. Dur ing the course of the work, the nurnber of reports sub-

rni t ted for analysis and evaluat ion rnore than tr ip led, the resul t of the un-

precedented increase in observat ions dur ing 1952. Accordingly, th is study

is based on a nurnber of reports considered to be large enough for a pre-

l i rn inary stat ist ical analysis, approxirnately 41 000 reports.

This study was undertaken pr i rnar i ly to categor ize the avai lable

reports of s ight ings and to deterrnine the probabi l i ty that any of the reports

of unident i f ied aer ia l objects represented observat ions of " f ly ing saucers".

With fu l l cognizance of the qual i ty of the data avai lable for study, yet wi th

an awareness of the proport ions th is subject has assurned at t i rnes in the

publ ic rnind, th is work was undertaken with al l the ser iousness accorded

to a straightforward scient i f ic invest igat ion. In order to establ ish the

probabi i i ty that any of the reports of unident i f ied aer ia l objects represented

observat ions of t t f ly ing saucersrr , i t was necessary to rnake an at ternpt to

answer the quest ion ' rWhat is a t f ly ing saucert ? r t . However, i t rnust be

ernphasized that th is was only incidental to the pr i rnary purpose of the

study, the deterrninat ion of the probabi l i ty that any of the reports of un-

ident i f ied aer ia l objects tep{esented observat ions of " f ly ing saucersrr , as

de{ ined on Page I .

The basic technique for th is study consi .sted of reducing the avai lable

data to a forrn sui table fpr rnechanical rnanipulat ion, a prerequis i te for the

appl icat ion of prel i rn inary stat ist ical rnethods. One of Internat ional

Business Machine Corporat i .onl s systerns was chosen as the best avai lable

rnechanic aI equiprnent.

The reduct ion of data contained in s ight ing reports into a forrn sui t -

able for t ransfer to IBM punched cards was extrernely di f f icul t and t i rne

consurning.

For th is study a panel of consul tants was forrned, consist ing of both

experts wi th in and outside ATIC. Dur ing the course of the work, guidance

and advice were received frorn the panel . The professional exper ience

avai lable f rorn the panel covered rnajor scient i f ic f ie lds and nurnerous

s pe c ia l ize d f ie Id s .

Al l records and working papers of th is study have been careful ly

preserved in an ofder ly fashion sui table for ready reference. These

t lrecords include

IBM cards used

condensat ions of a l l

in var ious phases of

indiv idual s ight ing reports,

the study.

and the

ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DATA

Reports of s ight ings were received by the U. S. Air Force frorn arepresentat ive cross sect ion of the populat ion o{ the U. S., and var iedwidely in cornpleteness and qual i ty.

"Jry]yded, W.g,Ig - lgpof ts- { ro lTr reputabie

scient ists, housgyiy. .- ,qr. . . { l I*9I ."r . . .gt" .4. ! . t9. : .g.d . t" . . t i r i i - i f fy ' i t " i ""d . . ' . . . ' -"6; i t of- ' the Ai . r red fo.ces. Reports var ied in Iength f rorn a few sentences

stat ing that a " f ly ing saucer i l had been sighted, to those containing thou-

sands of words, including descr ipt ion, speculat ion, and advice on how to

handle the ' rproblern of the r f iy ing saucersr". " , .9-g", l l " ! .S.fSPg.f lF ' .yg..r"e-,p.{ .Lt igh . .

".*qy--""l.]ly,r'-.c.ol:.:,:-v.,.3ti-t-g,.-.e1d..19;1"9,"TP*ls,l,g.g"l.."l"tte.observer could rnake thern;

j_-i.et_-i"i.1'-g :,t"i_g'-i-T.e:. .p.e_"e-ri;.s*;-;ii#;.6 m,;;-ffi-i;e_!i._-,r.ii-brF:- "* ""::*i-,c al. .-g*.*P:r?"-ti-"-.n-*q{--!,bs,.,*P-o--li.?thern was subrni t ted by ser ious. .peo"ol"e.r . .gt_.y-sJi i i : "9,"hy,Xla! . t - t teV,nad seen and

Three pr incipal sources of reports were noted in the prel i rn inary

review of the data. The bulk of the data arr ived at ATIC through regular

rni l i tary channels, f rorn June, 1947, unt i l the rniddle of I952.

A second type of data consisted of iet ters report ing s ight ings sent by

civ i l ian observers direct ly to ATIC. Most of these direct cornrnunicatrons

were dated subsequent to Apr i l 30, 1952, and are bel ieved to be the resul t

of a suggest ion by a popular rnagazine that future reports be directed to the

Air Technical Intel l igence Center. As could be expected, a Iarge nurnbcr

of let ters was received fol lowing this publ ic i ty.

A thi rd type of data was that contained in quest ionnaire forrns corr l -

p leted by the observer hirnsel f . A quest ionnaire forrn, developed dur ing

the course of th is study, was rnai led by ATIC to a selected group of wr i ters

of d i rect let ters wi th the request that the forrn be cornpleted and returned.

Approxirnateiy I , 000 responses were received by ATIC.

In general , the data were subject ive, consist ing of qual i f ied est i rnates

of physical character ist ics rather than of precise t r reasurernents. Further-

rnore, rnost of the reports were not reduced to wr i t ten forrn i rnrnediately.

The t i rne between sight ing and report var ied f rorn one day to several years.

Both of these factors introduced an elernent of doubt concerning the val id i ty

of the or ig inal data, and increased i ts subject iv i ty. This was intensi f ied by

the recognized inabi l i ty of the average indiv idual to est i rnate speeds, dis-

tances, and sizes of objects in the air wi th any degree of accuracy. In

spi te of these l i rn i tat ions, rnethods of stat ist ical analysis of such reports rn

su{f ic ient ly large groups are val id. The danger l ies in the possibi l i ty of

...1 : l

, i_

3

-/

IZforgett ing the subject iv i ty of the data at the t i rne that conclusions are

drawn frorn the analysis. I t rnust be ernphasized, again and again, that any

conclusions contained in th is report are based NOT on facts, but on what

many observers thought and est i rnated the true facts to be.

Al together, the data f or th is study consisted of approxirnately 4, 000

reports of s ight ings of unident i f ied aer ia l objects. The rnajor i ty were re-

ceived through rni l i tary channels or in the forrn of observer-cornpleted

quest ionnaires; a few were a. :cepted in the forrn of d i rect let ters f rom un-

quest ionably rel iable sources. Sight ings rnade between June, L947 , and

Decernber, L952, were considered for th is study. Sight ings al leged to have

occurred pr ior to 1947 were not considered, s ince they were not reported

to of f ic ia l sources unt i l af ter publ ic interest in " f ly ing saucers" ha{ been

st i rnulated by the poPular Press.

REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECFIANIZED COMPUTATION FORM

A s received by the Air Technical Intel l igence Center, the s ight ing

reports were not in a forrn sui table for even a quasi-scient i f ic study. A

prel i rn inary review of the data indicated the need for standardized interro-

gat ion procedures and supplernental forrns for the reduct ion of current ly

held and subsequent ly acquired data to a forrn arnenable to scient i f ic

apprais al .

The plan for reduct ion of the data to usable forrn consisted of a pro-

grarr l of developrnent cornpr is ing four rnajor stepsr ( l ) a systernat ic l is t ing

of the factors necessary to evaluate the observer and his report , and to

ident i fy the unknown object observed; (Z) a standard scherne for the t rans-

fer of data to a rnechanized cornputat ion systern; (3) an order ly rneans of

relat ing the or ig inal data to al l subsequent forrns; and (a) "

consistent pro-

cedure for the ident i f icat ion of the phenornenon descr ibed by' the or ig inal

data.

Que s t ionnaire

The f i rst reports received by 4T.Ic var ied widely in cornplet \eness

and qual i ty. Air Force Letter 200-5(Z) and Air Force Forrn l lZ\r i were

atternpts to f ix responsibi l i ty for and i rnprove the qual i ty of the reports of

s ight ings. To coordinate past ef for ts and to provide standardizat ion for the

(1) A modif ied Air Force Form 112

sighting.

pert inent questions to be answered in regard to an unidertt i f icd-objcct

(2) Air Force Letter 200-5 places responsibi l i ry with the Air Force

analysis of unidenti f ied aerial objects. This letter is dated 29

for dre invest igat ion, report iug, and

Apri l 1952.

/3future, i t was i rnperat ive to develop a quest ionnaire forrn l is t ing the factorsnecessary for evaluat ion of the observer and his report , and ident i f icat ionof the unknown objects. In addi t ion, i t was decided that such a quest ionnaireshould be designed to serve as an interrogatorrs guide, and as a forrn forthe observer hirnsel f to cornplete when personal interrogat ion was not possi-ble or pract icable.

Ideal ly, a quest ionnaire for the purposes required should containquest ions pertaining to al l technical detaiLs considered to be essent ia l forthe stat ist ical approach, and should serve to obtain a rnaxirnurn of inforrna-t ion frorn the average individual who had rnade a sight ing in the past orwould be l ikely to be report ing s ight ings in the future. Besides these dis-crete facts, an integrated wri t ten descr ipt ion of a s ight ing would be re-quired, thus enabl ing the reported facts of the s ight ing to be corroborated.Also, a narrat ive descr ipt ion rnight al low subt le quest ions to be answeredconcerning the observert s abi l i ty , such as indirect quest ions that wouldreveal h is reasoning abi l i ty , suggest ib i l i ty , and general rnental at t i tude,As a whole, then, the inforrnat ion contained in a quest ionnaire should rnakepossible the c lassi f icat ion and evaluat ion of the s ight ing, the rat ing of theobserver, the probabi l i ty of accuracy of reported facts, and the ident i f ica-t ion of what was reported by the observer as unident i f ied.

Dur ing the course of th is project , three quest ionnaire forrns were

developed, each intended to be an i rnproved revis ion of the one preceding.

The irnprovernents were suggested and conf irrned by rnernbers of the panel

of consul tants connected with th is project"

The or ig inal forrn was evolved by the panel of consul tants as theirf i rst work on this project . I t was intended to al low the start of the reduc-

t ion of reports to dis.crete data, and was i rnrnediately subjected to exten-

sive review and revis i .on by the panel . The revised (second) forrn was

subjected to a t r ia l test before adopt ion, ATIC sent a copy to observers

report ing sight ings, with the request that the forrn be cornpleted and re-

turned. Of the f i rst 300 quest ionnaires returned dur ing July and August,

1952, 168 were analyzed by a consul t ing psychologist . On the basis of th is

analysis, p lus the exper ience gained in working with past reports, the f inal

forrn of the quest ionnaire - the U. S. Air Force Technical Inforrnat ion

Sheet - was evolved. Copies of the three forrns of the quest ionnaire, in

the order of their developrnent, are shown as Exhibi ts BL, 82, and B3 in

Appendix B.

In order to i rnplernent the transcr ipt ion of data frorn past s ight ing

reports, each succeeding forrn was put to use as soon as i t was developed

and approved. Accordingly, exper ience was obtained with each forrn in

relat ion to past data, an i rnportant factor in the i rnprovernent of the qual i ty

and cornpleteness of the later reports included in this study.

l t ll ' r t/

Coding Systern and Work Sheet

The reduct ion of non-nurner icai data to nurner ical forrn is rnandatory

in the rnachine handl ing of data. Thus, the select ion of the IBM punched-

card systern for analysis of data forced the adopt ion of a rnaster coding

plan. Since i t was i rnpract icable to t ransfer detai led data of an exact

nature f rorn the quest ionnaire to the IBM card, an interrnediate t ransfer

forrn, coordinated with the rnaster code, was necessary.

The rnaster coding plan was evolved dur ing the ear ly stages of the

prel i rn inary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consul tants

before use. I t was recognized that th is systern of coding would be the

heart of the analysis, that is , the cornpleteness o{ the faci l i ty for t rans-

lat ion of data could rnake or break the study. Accordingly, every conceiv-

able factor that rnight inf luence the ident i f icat ion of unident i f ied aerial

objects was included, together wi th a wide range of var iat ions wi th in each

factor. The or ig inal coding systern (wi th rninor correct ions) was used

throughout the translat ion of the or iginal data with rnarked success. A copy

of th is systern, cal led CODES, is enclosed as Exhibi t B4, Appendix B.

To faci l i tate the preparat ion of the punched-card abstract , an inter-

rnediate forrn cal led the VfORK SHEET ( later, t t re C.A'RO BIBLE) was

<ieveloped. Referenced to both the data f rorn the quest ionnaire and the sys-

tern of report ident i f icat ion, the WORK SHEET perrni t ted an orderly

transcr ipt ion of data s i rnul taneously by several people. In conjunct ion

with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used dur ing the reduct ion of the

or ig inal data to code forrn necessary for t ransfer to punched cards' A

sarnple is included as Exhibi t B5, Appendix B.

After the analysis was under wayr i t becarne apParent that the rne-

chanics of rnachine processing could be i rnproved by incorporat ing in the

IBM card systern grouP classi f icat ions of certain factors requir ing rnore

than one colurnn for discrete expression. In addi t ion, the inclusion of

certain data relat ing to the evaluat ion and bear ing of the sun with respect

to the observer was considered necessary. Final ly, a cr i t ical exarninat ion

of certain segrnents of the data indicated the need for the def ini t ion of a

new factor relat ing to the rnaneuvers of the object or objects s ighted'

Pr ior to the start of the analyt ical study, i t had been assurned that a corn-

binat ion of stated factors would, by inference, def ine the rnaneuver pattern '

AII these addi t ions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES

and CARD BIBLE that are i l lustrated as Exhibi ts 85 and B7, Appendix B.

However, at the t i rne that the l r laneuver factor was deterrnined to be cr i t i -

cal , i t was physical ly i rnpract icable to rnake the required def ini t ions and

re-evaluate the or ig inal data. Therefore, no code for rnaneuverabi l i ty has

been included in the coDES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.

/ \

Ident i f icat ion of Working Papers

The actual reduct ion of data to IBM punched-card forrn presented aproblern of rnass t ransfer of f igures by several workers. Recogniz ing thatan order ly systern of re lat ing the or ig inal data to the quest ionnaire, theWORK SHEET, and the IBM card was i rnperat ive, a scherne of SERIALNUMBERS was developed to answer th is need.

The f i rst data consisted of a ser ies of let ter- f i le fo lders ident i f ied bythe year and locat ion of the s ight ing or s ight ings they contained. The nurn-ber of reports of s ight ings in a s ingle fo lder var ied f rorn I to over 2O.Under these condi t ions, there was a great possibi l i ty for incorrect t ran-scr ipt ion of data, dupl icat ion of t ranscr ipt ion, or rn isplacernent of inter-rnediate forrns. Further, i t was considered desirable to relate al l s ight ingsof the sarrre object or objects to one another. The concept of a four-digi tser ia l nurnber (rnajor) , fo l lowed by a two-digi t subser ia l nurnber (rninor) ,was adequate to fu l f i l l these requirernents.

To expedi te i 'andl ing of the data, ternporary ser ia l nurnbers wereassigned unt i l each report had been evaluated and the phenornenon had beenplaced in a category of ident i f icat ion. The use of ternporar j r ser ia l nurr . -bers perrni t ted the consol idat ion of dupl icate reports f rorn apparent lydiverse sources, such.as a te letype rnessage and an Air Force Forrn I lZ.However, th is consol idat ion was rnade ONLY when i t could be proved con-clusively that the sources of the two docurnents were one and the sarne.Factors of the observerts locat ion, date and t i rne of observat ion, descr ip-t ion of the phenorr lenon, and f inal ly, the narne of the observer were con-sidered. In th is rr lanner, the assignrnent of rnajor ser ia l and rninor sub-ser ia l nurnbers in cont inuous ser ies was rnade only to the reports acceptedfor the stat ist ical study. I t is bel ieved that the reports accepted representunique and undupl icated instances of s ight ings.

In the establ ishrnent of the ser ia l -nurnber systern, i t was necessaryto def ine certain terrns, so that a standard interpretat ion could be achieved.The terrns and corresponding def in i t ions were:

OBSERVER - Any witness report ing to a proper author i ty thathe had seen unident i f ied aer ia l objects.

SIGHTING - The report or group of reports of the sarrreobserved phenornenon that rernained unident i 'f ied to the observer or observers, at leastunt i l reported.

/ frn\

+ rufTne

w 5s.)

t6SINGLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consist ing of a s ingle

report f rorn ( l ) one OBSERVER with no knowledge

of addit ional OBSERVERS of the sarrre phenorn-

enon, or (Z) a group of wi tnesses of the sarne

phenornenon, each cognizant of the others. The

witness who rnade the report is cal led a SINGLE

OBSERVER.

MULTIPLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consist ing of

several rePorts f rorn OBSERVERS of the sarne

phenorrrenon who were cognizant of each other.

The witnesses who rnade reports are cal led'

MULTIPLE OBSERVERS.

ALL SIGHTINGS - ( l ) The group of reports consist ing of one

report for each OBSERVER' including both

SINGLE and MULTIPLE OBSERVERS' (Z) The

quest ionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card

represent i . tg t t tg-:S-Porf f rorn each OBSERVER -in other words, the representat ion of each report

accepted for the stat ist ical . study.

UNIT SIGHTINGS - ( l ) The grouP of reports consist ing of one

report for each SIGHTING' including al l the

reports of SINGLE OBSERVATIONS and the one

rnost rePresentat ive report f rorn each MULTIPLE

OBSERVATION. (Z) The quest ionnaire, work

sheet, and IBM card rePresent ing the report for

each SIGHTING accepted for the stat ist ical study.

A rnajor ser ia lsegregat ing the Yearf oI lows:

nurnber ( four digi ts) was assigned to each sight ing,

of occurrence by select ion of l i rn i ts for each yeart

0001 to 0500 reserved f .or 19470501 to 1000 reserved for 1948l00I to I500 reserved f .or 1949

I501 to 2000 reserved for 1950

Z00l to 2500 reserved for 195l

2501 to 4900 reserved f .or l95Z

as

Whi le th is scherne would serve to ident i fy any indiv idual s ight ing, ident i f i -

cat ion of each report and i ts subsequent forrns was necessary. The rninor

subser ia l nurnbers ( two digi ts) fu l f i i led th is requirernent. For al l SINGLE

OBSERVATIONS, a rnajor ser ia l nurnber fo l lowed by two (Z) zeros, for

exarnple, 2759.00, was suff ic ient ident i f icat ion. For MULTIPLE OBSER-

VATIONS, the rnajor ser ia l nurnber fo l lowed by a ser ies of two-digi t nurrr-

bers ranging frorn 00 to 99 was used to ident i fy the indiv idual reports. In

general , the rnost cornplete report f rorn the rnost rel iable observer of that

{ i

MULTIPLE OBSERVATION was ident i f ied wi th t t re .00 subser ia l nurnberAs an exarnple, a MULTIPLE OBSERVATION consist ing of s ix s ight ingreports would have the fol lowing ser ia l nurnbers:

/7

lI3Z"00 represent ingl l3Z.0l represent ingL L3Z.0 Z repre sent i .ngLl3Z.03 represent ingLL3Z.04 represent ingl l3Z.05 represent ing

the best report and observer

an addi t ional observer





During the course of the t ranscr ipt ion of the data to rnachine card

forrn, i t becarne obvious that certain reports could have been independent

observat ions of the sarne phenornenon. So, i f the presentat ion of an

analysis based on one report for each sight ing was val id ( the concept of

UNIT SIGHTINGS), a presentat ion of an analysis based on one report for

each phengnlsnen should be val id also. Further, the exarninat ion of data

relat ing to the actual nurnber of phenorrrena was considered to be the proper

basis for assessing the probabi l i ty of technological developrnents outside

the range o{ present-day scient i f ic knowledge. Therefore, a designat ion of

OBJECT SIGHTINGS was establ ished, wi th the fo l lowing def in i t ion:

OBJECT SIGHTING - ( l ) The group of reports consist ing ofone report for each phenornenon. (2) Thequest ionnaire, work sheet, and IBM cardrepresent ing a report for each phenornenonaccepted for the stat ist ical study.

In br ief review, ALL SIGHTINGS referrefer to actual s ight ings, and OBJECTnurnber of phenorr lena.

to aI l reports, UNIT SIGHTINGSSIGHTINGS refer to the assurned

It rnust be recognized that the process of ident i fy ing OBJECTSIGHTINGS was deduct ive, whi le that for UNIT SIGHTINGS was def in i t ive.A conservat ive approach was adopted in the deterrninat ion of OBJECTSIGHTINGS, using the factors of date and t i rne of observat ions, locat ionof ob'servers, durat ion of observat ions, and range, bear ing, t rack direc-t ion, and ident i f icat ion of the phenornena. Any error of select ion of OBJECTSIGHTINGS wi l l tend to be in the direct ion of reducing the actual nurnber ofphenornena observed (several instances of UNtrT SIGHTINGS that rnight beone OBJECT SIGHTING were noted, but the evidence was not conclusiveenough to just i fy consol idat ion of the reports) .

Fol lowing the deterrninat ion of oBJECT SIGHTINGS, a ser ies ofser ia l nurnbers, cal ied the INCIDENT SERIAL NUMBERS, was establ ishedto faci t r i tate any future study of a speci f ic object s ight ing. Each reportedsight ing that re lates to an OBJECT SIGHTING received the sarr le incidentser ia l nurnber, a four-digi t code paral le l ing the rnajor ser ia l nurnberser ies.

9

/

lg /For rnachine rnanipulat ion, i t was desirable to be able to select the

sarnple of cards (al l reports, a l l s ight ings, or al l phenornena) to be in-

c luded in a part icular study. The concept of a SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION

NUMBER was evolved to f i l l th is desire. Using one colurr ln of the IBM

card, and the correlated working papers, the code for th is funct ion was

developed. Mult ip le punching el i rn inated the need to use several colurnns

for discrete expression of the var iat ions. Select ion of the proper nurnber

in th is colurnn thus perrni t ted select ion of the desired sample of cards.

Evaluat ion of Indiv idual RePorts

Evaluat ion of s ight ing reports was recognized as a crucial step in the

preparat ion of data for stat ist ical t reatrnent; inconsistent evaluat ions would

have inval idated any conclusions to be der ived frorn th is study. A rnethod

of evaluat ion was, therefore, deterrnined sirnuLtaneously wi th. the develop-

rnent of the quest ionnaire, the coding systern, and the work sheet. I t is

ernphasized that al l phases of evaluat ion, even including the tedious prep-

arat ion of the or ig inal data for stat ist ical t reatrnent, were entrusted only

to selected, special ly qual i f ied scient ists and engineers.

Evaluat ion consisted of a standardized procedure to be fol lowed for:

( t ) tne deduct ion of d iscrete facts f rorn data which depended on hurnan i rn-

pressions rather than scient i f ic r r reasurerrrents, (Z) t f re rat ing of the ob-

server and his report as deterrnined frorn avai lable inforrnat ion, and (3) the

deterrninat ion of . the probable ident i f icat ion of the phenorr lenon observed.

Categor ies of ident i f icat ion, establ ished upon the basis of previous exper i -

ence, were as {ol lows:

B aI loon

A stronornical

Airc raf t

L ight phenornenon

Bird s

Clouds, dust, etc.

Insuff ic ient informat ion

P syc holo gic al rnani fe s tat ions

Unknown

Othe r

The f i rst step in evaluat ion, the deduct ion of d iscrete facts f rorn

subject ive data, required certain calculat ions based on the informat ion

avai lable in the s ight ing report . An exarnple was the f inding of the approxi-

rnate angular veloci ty and accelerat ion of the object or objects s ighted.

Care was taken dur ing th is phase of the work to insure against the deduc-

t ion of d iscrete facts not warranted by the or ig inal data. Thus, even

though there was a cornplete lack of any val id evidence consist ing of

i

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t?physical rnat ter in any case of a reported unident i f ied aer ia l object , th is

was not assurned to be pr i rna facie evidence thattr f ly ing saucersrrdid not

exist .

In those cases in which an atternpt to reduce the inforrnat ion to a

factual level fa i led cornpletely, the report was el i rn inated frorn fur ther con-

siderat ion, and thus not included in the stat ist ical analysis. About 800

reports of s ight ings were el i rn inated or rejected in th is rnanner. Most of

these reports 'were rejected because they were extrernely nebulous; the

rest were rejected'because they contained highly conf l ic t ing staternents.

The second step in evaluat ion, the rat ing of the observer and his

report , Iogical ly fo l lowed the f i rst step, the reduct ion of the data to usable

forrn. Ratinss were assipoed on the basis of tk;[g[ry;-+g""lggJp-*:.**91.*._:_.-_*-**-e,w

forrnat iSn, considered in relat ion to one another:**T;;;;;;;;;;;;;fr.rnhis

doccupat ion, aget and training;

(Z) The consistency arr long the separate port ions of ' the

descr ipt ion of the s ight ing;

(3) The general qual i ty and cornpleteness of the report ; *f

(4) Considerat ion of the observerr s fact-report ing abi l i tyand at t i tude, as disclosed by his rnanner of descr ib ingthe sight ing.

In cases in which insuff ic ient inforrnat ion was avai lable to rnake a judgrnent

of the observer or report , none was rnade, but the report was accepted for

the stat ist ical study.

The third step in the process of evaluatior, jbg*g3lSmp.f*gA"|gg_-{tl.l_{-i*c_.gL;

- t :3"-g{! ! 'e.objectorobjectssie.h!sgf f i * - - f i rstbytheindiv idua1who rnade the franscr ipt ion of the data ( the prel i rn inary ident i f icat ion), and

Iater (the final identification) [*"jrgg!*g:g_l*c5*"gfJ*o_;+'{_.pgg_q-,g-.*€, two repre-

sentat ives f rorn ATIC and two frorn the panel of consul tants. Al thoughrepresentat ives of ATIC part ic ipated in rnaking the f inal ident i f icat ions, i t

rnust be ernphasized that,anJ*pjgyrp"J*"9*.*Lgg_t].Ilf":.g,e"t"Lo*l_Sl_*_',","lg.3jing rnade by

ATIC was not introduced or referred to in any way.

In the coding systern, the choices provided for f inal ident i f icat ions

were based onATICt s previous exper ience in analysis of the data. Theyhad found that the rnajor i ty of s ight ings could be classi f ied as rnis interpre-

tat ions of cornrnon objects or natural phenornena. Accordingly, categor ies

for objects rnost f requent ly present in the air were provided. Bal loons,

aircraf t , astronornical bodies (such as rneteors), b i rds, and clouds or dust

were recognized as rnajor categor ies. The less f requent, but cornrnon

objects, such as k i tes, f i reworks, f lares, rockets, contrai ls, and

l l

7Crneteorological phenornena l ike srnal l tornadoesr were col lected into a

category . . t i "a OTHER. A separate category for the uncornrnon natural

phenornena associated with l ight ref lect ions or refract ions' such as rnirages'

sun dogs, inversion- layer i rnages, and distort ions caused by airborne ice'

was establ ished with the t i t le of LIGHT PHENOMENON. categor ies for

INSUFFICIENTINFORMATIoN'PSYCHoLOGICALMANIFESTATIONS'andUNKNOWN were provided for the s ight ings that could not be f i t ted into the

preceding ident i f icat ions. An expLanat ion of their use fol lows:

INSUFFICIENTINFORMATIoN-This ident i f icat ioncategorywas assrgned to a report when, uPon f inal con-

siderat ion, there was sorne essent ia l i tern of

inforrnat ion rnissing, or there was enough

doubtaboutwhatdatawereavai labletodisal lowident i f icat ion as a cornrr lon object or sorne

natural phenornenon. I t is ernphasized that this

categgry of ident i f icat ion was not used as a

convenient way to dispose of what rnight be

cal led "poor un-knowns'r , but as a category for

reports that , perhaps, could have been one of

several known objects or natural phenornena'

Noreports ident i f iedasINSUFFICIENTINFoRMA-TION contain authent icated facts or i rnpressions

concerning the sight ing that would prevent i ts

being ident i f ied as a known object or phenorr lenon;

PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS - ThiS idCNti f iCAt iON

,'hycategory was assigned to a report when,

al though i t was wel l establ ished that the ob-

server had seen sornething, i t was also

obvious that the descr ipt ion of the s ight ing

had been overdrawn. Rel ig ious fanat ic isrnt a

desire for publ ic i ty, or an over-act ive i rnagi-

nat ion were the rnost cornlr lon rnental aber-

rat ions causing this type of report ;

This designat ion in the ident i f icat ion code was

assigned to those reports of s ight ings wherein

the descr ipt ion of the object and i ts rnaneuvers

could not be f i t ted to the pattern of any known

object or Phenornenon.

For the purposes of th is study, two groups of ident i f icat ions were

recognized, tne f<NOWNS ( including al l ident i f icat ion categor ies except the

UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS.

Al lpossibleident i f icat ionsprovidedinthecodesystern,exceptINSUFFICIENT INFORMATION and UNKNOWN, could be assigned accord-

ing to two degrees of certainty, designated ' rcertain ' t and "Doubtful ' r '

UNKNOWN -

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AIR FORCE REGUI,ATION INO. 20G-2 |

l. Purpoee and Scope. This Regulation es-tablishes

^procedures fdr reporting lnformationand evidence pertaining to unidentified flyingobjects and scts forth the responsibility of AirForce activities in this regard. It applies to allAir Force activities.

2. Definitiong:

a. Unidentified Flyins Objects (UFOB)-Relates to any airborne object which by perform-ance, aerodynamic charaeteristics, or unusualfeatures does not conform to any presently knownaircraft or missile type, or which cannot bepositively identified as a familiar object.

b. Familiar Objects-Include balloons, as-tronomical bodies, birds, and so forth.

3. Objectivee. Air Force interest in unidenti-fied flying objects is twofold: First as a possiblethreat to the security of the United States andits forees, and secondly, to determine technicalaspects involved.

a. Air Defense. To date, the flying objectsreported have imposed no threat to the securityof the United States and its Possessions. How-ever, the possibility that new air vehicles, hostileaircraft or missiles may first be regarded as flyingobjects by the initial observer is real. This re-quires that sighiings be reported rapidly and ascbmpletely as information permits.

b. Technical. Analysis thus far has failedto provide a satisiaetory explanation for a num-bef of sightings reported. The Air Foree willeontinue to collect and analyze reports unti l allsightings can be satisfactori ly explained, bearingin mind that:

(1) To me&sure scientif ic advances, theAir Force must be informed on experi-ment.ation and development of newair vehicles.

INTELLIGENCE

Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting (Short Title: UFOB)

Po,ragraph

Purpose and Scope--- IDefinit ions ------------- 2Objectives 3Reiponsibility 4Guidance ------- - - - - - - 5ZI Collection 6Reporting 7EvidencJ---- 8Release of Facts------ I

See Note at Botton of Page Xl+. x1 *AtrIR 2O(L2l-5

DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCEWASHINGTON. 12 AUGUST 1964

(2) The possibil i tv exists that an air ve-hicle- of revoiutionary configurationmay be developed.

(3) The reporting of all pertinent faetorsrvill have a direct bearing on the suc-cess of the technical analysis.

4. Responsibility:

a. Reporting. Commanders of Air Forceactivities will report all information and evideneethat may eome to their attention, including thatreceived- from adjacent commands of the otherservices and from civilians.

b. Inuestigation. Air Defense Commandwill conduct all field investigations within theZI, to determine the identity of any UFOB.

e. Analusis. The Air Teehnical IntelligenceCenter (ATIC), 'Wright-Patterson Air ForceBase, Ohio, wil l analyze and evaluate: All in-formation and evidence reported within lhe Zlafter the Air Defense Command has exhaustedall efforts to identify the UFOB; and all informa-tion and evidence eollected in oversea areas.

d. Cooperation. All activities will cooperatewith Air Defense Command representatives toinsure the economical and prompt success of aninvestigation, ineluding the furnishing of air andground transporiation, when feasible.

5. Guidanee. The thoroughness and qualityof a renort or investigation into incidents of un-identifled flying objects are limited only by theresourcefulness and imagination of the personresponsible for preparing the report. Guidanceset forth below is based on experience and hasbeen found helpful in evaluating incidents:

a. Theodolite measurements of changes ofazimut,h anrl clevation and angular size.

b. Interception, identif ication, or air search

+Tlris Regularion supereedes AFR 2OO-2,26 August 1953, including Change 200-2A, 2 NovemLer 1953.

AFR 2fi)-2J-l

XZaction. These actions may be taken if appro-priate and within the scope of existing air defenseregulations.

c. Contact with local aircraft control andwarning (AC&W) units, ground observation corps(GOC) posts and fi l ter centers, pilots and crewsof aircraft aloft at the time and place of sightingwhenever feasible, and any other persons or or-ganizations whieh may have factual data bearing6n the UFOB or may-be able to offer corroborat-ing evidence, electronic or otherwise"

d. Consultation with military or civil ianweather forecasters to obtain data on: Tracksof rveather balloons released in the area, sincethese often 6rs ls."ponsible for sightings; and anyunusuai meteorological activity which may havea bearing on the UFOB.

e. Consultation with astronomers in the areato determine s'hether any astronomical body ornhenomenon would account for or have a bearingbn the observation.

f. Contact with military and civilian toweroperators, air operations offices, and so-forth, tod^etermine whether the sighting could be theresult of rnisidentifieation of known aircraft.

g. Contact with persons who might haveknowiedee of experimental aircraft of unusrralconfiguration, roiket and guided missile firings,and so forth, in the area.

6. ZI Collection. The Air Defense Commanclhas a direct interest in the facts pertaining toUFOB's reported within lhe Zl and has, in the4602d Air Intell igence Service Squadron (AISS),the capabii ity to investigate these reports. The4602d AISS is composed 6f specialists lrained forfie1d collection and investigation of matters ofair intellisence interest which oecur within theZI. This iquarlron is highly mobile and deployedthroughout the ZI as follows: Flights are at-tachecl to air defense divisions, detachments areattached to each of the defense fotces, and thesouadron headquarters is located at PetersonFicld, Colorado, adjacent to Headquarters, AirDefense Command. Air Force activities, there-fore, should establish and maintain liaison withthe nearest element of this squadron. This canbe accomplished by contacting the appropriateechelon of the Air Defense Command as outlinedabove.

a. All Air Force activities are authorized toconduct such preliminary investigation as maybe required for reporting purposes; however, in-vestigations should not be earried beyond thispoint, unless such action is requested by the+ooza ltss.

b. On occasions-after initial reports are

{l

submitted-additional data is required whichcan be developed more economically by thenearest Air Force activity, srlch as: narrativestatements, sketches, rnarked maps, charts, andso forth. Under such circumstances, appropriatecommanders will be contacted by the 4602d AISS.

c. Direct communication between echelonsof the 4602d AISS and Air Force acfivities isauthorized.

7. Reporting. All information relating toUFOB's will be reported promptly. The method(electrical or written) and priority of dispatchwill be selected in accordance with the apparentintelligence value of the information. In mostinstances, reports will be made by electricalmeans: Information over 24 hours old will begiven a "deferred" precedence. Reports over 3days old will be made by written report preparedon AF Form 112, Air Intelligence InformationReport, and AF Form 1"12a, Supplement to AFForm 112.

a. Addressees:(l) Electrical Reports. All electrical re-

ports will be multiple addressed to:(a) Commander, Air Defense Com-

mand, Ent Air Force Base, Colo-rado Springs, Colorado.

(b) Nearest Air Division (Defense).(For ZI only.)

(c) Commander, Air Technical Intelli-gence Center, Wright-Patterson AirForce Base, Ohio.

(d) Director of Intelligence, Headquar-ters USAF, Washington 25,D. C.

(2) Written Reports:(a) Within lhe ZI, reports will be sub-

mitted direct to the Air DefenseCommand. Air Defense Commandwill reproduce the report and dis-tribute it to interested ZI intelli-gence agencies. The original rcporttogether with notation of the dis-tribution effected then will be for-warded to the Director of Intelli-gence, Headquarters USAF, Wash-ington 25, D. C.

(b) Outside lhe ZI, reports will be sub-mitted direct to Director of Intelli-gence, Headquarters USAF, Wash-ington 25, D. C. as prescribed in"fnteliigence Collection fnstruc-tions" GCI), June 7954.

b. Sltort Title. "IIFOB" will appear at thebeginning of the text of electrieai messagcs andin the subject of written reports.

c. Negatiue Data. The word "negative"

II

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in reply to any numbered item of the reportforrnat \a' i l l indicate that all loeical leads weredevelope-d without success. The phrase "notapplicable" (N/A) s' i l l indicate that the questiondoes not apply to the sighting being investigated.

d. Report Format. Reports wil l include thefollowing numtrered items:

(1) Descr ipt ion of the object(s) :(a) Shape.(b) Size compared to a known object

(use one of the foilowing terms:Head of a pin, pea, dirne, nickel,quarter, half dollar, silver doilar,baseball, grapefruit, or basketball)held in the'hand at about armslength.

(c) Coior,(d) Number.(e) Formation, if more than one.(f) Any discernible features or details.(g) Tail, trail, or exhaust, inciuding

size of same compared to size ofobj ect (s) .

(h) Sound. If heard, describe sound.(i) Other pertinent or unusual features.

.2) Descr ipt ion of course of object(s) :(a) What first called the attention of

observer(s) to the object(s)?(b) Angle of elevation and azimuth of

the object(s) when first observed.(c) Angle of elevation and azimuth of

object(s) upon disappearance.(d) Description of flight path and

maneuvers of object(s) .(e) Manner of disappearance of ob-

j ect (s) .(f) Lengih of t ime in sight.

(3) Manner of observation:(a) Use one or any cornbination of the

following items: Ground-visual,ground-electronic, a i r -e lectronic.(If electronic, specify type ofradar. )

(b) Statement as to optical aids (tele-scopes, binoculars, and so fofth)used and description thereof.

(c) If the sighting is made while air-borne, give type aircraft, ideirtifi-

, cation nurnber, altitude, heading,speed, and home station.

(4) Time and date of sighting:(a) Zulu time-date group of sighting.(b) T,ieht conditions (use one of the

following terms): Night, d*y,dawn, dusk.

v?/\ J AF.R 200-2a{

(5) Locations of obsen'er(s). Exact iati-tude and Iongitude of each observer,or Georef position, or position withreference to a known landmark.

(6) Identifying information of all ob-SCIVCI{SI:

(a) Civil ian-Name, age, mail ing ad-dress, occupation.

(b) Military-Name, grade, organiza-tion, duty, and estimate of reli-abil ity.

(7) Weather and winds-aloft conditionsat t ime and place of sighlings:

(a) Observer(s) account of weatherconditions.

(b) Report from nearest AWS or U. S.Weather Bureau Office of winddirection and velocity in degreesand knots at surface, 6,000', 10,000',16,000" 20,000,, 30,000,, 50,000,,and 80,000', if available.

(c) Ceil ing.(d) Visibil i ty.(e) Amount of cloud cover.(f) T.'hunderstorms in area and quad-

rant in which located.(8) Any other unusual activity or condi-

tion, meteorological, astrononiical, orotherwise, which might account forthe sighting.

(9) Interception or identif ication actiontaken (such action may be takenwhenever feasible, cornplying withexisting air defense directives).

(10) Location of any air traffic in the areaat time of sighting.

(11) Position tit le and comments of thepreparing officer, including his pre-lirninary analysis of the possible causeof the sighting(s).

(12) Existence of physical evidence, suchas materials and photographs.

e. Seutrity. Reports should be unclassifiedunless inclusion of data required bv d abovenecessitates a higher classification. -

8. Evidence. The existence of physical evi-dence (photographs or materiei) wil l be prornptlyreported.

a. Photographic:(l) Visu,al. The negative and two prints

wil l be forrvarded, all originai f i lm,including u,herever possible boihirrints ancl negalives, wil l be tit led orotherwi.qe properly iclentified as toplace, t ime, and date of the incident

ilil

AFR 2fi)-28-9

x t*(see "Intelligence Collection Instruc-tions" (ICI), June 1954).

(2) Radar. Two copies of each print willbe forwarded. Prints of radarscopephotography will be titled in accord-ance with AFR 95-7 and forwardedin compliance with AFR 95-6.

b. X[ateriel. Suspected or actual items ofmateriel which come into possession of any AirForce echelon will be safeguarded in such man-ner as to prevent any defacing or alterationwhich might reduce its value for inteliigenceexamination and analysis.

Bv Onopn oF THE Sscnnrenv oF THE Arn Foncp:

Orrrcre.r,:

K. E. THIEBAUDColonel, USAFAii Adjutant General

DISTRIBUTON:S; X:

ONI, Department of the Navy 200G-2, Department of the Army 10

9. Releaee of Facte. Headquarters USAF willrelease summaries of evaluated data which willinform the public on this subject. In responseto local inquiries, it is permissible to inform newsmedia representatives on UFOB's rvhen theobject is positively identified as a familiar object(see paragraph 2b), except that the followingtype of data warrants protection and sirould notbe revealed: Names of principles, intercept andinvestigation procedures, and classified radardata. For those objects which are not ex-plainabie, only the fact that ATIC wil l analyzethe data is worthly of release, due to the manyunknowns involved.

N. F. TWININGChief ol Stafi, United States Air Force

Thle docunent (AI'R 200-2) has besn rcproduced as

a pubLlc sorries for digtribution rlith the Thlrdnaitfot of the book TELYING SAUCERS: An Analysls

of the ALr Force PmJect BIuc Book Spocia3' nepgrtNo. 14tr. Slngle copics of thle AER S0-2 nay b€

requeited, frco of charg€r W tt+ttng to the pub-

irirtot at the add,ress s[own bn the baek cover oftbe Thftd Edltlon of that book, eneLosl'ng a long

self-addresssd cnveJ.ope bearing *[rst-c]asspostago. Glvo Your ZIP-Code.

* u. s, eoyERxlEf l r pRttr l to oFr lc l r le!a

l l

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? /A t 'Certainrr ident i f icat ion indicated a rninirnurn arnount of doubt regarding

the val id i ty of the evaluat ion. By ' r r :u le-of- thurnbrt reasoning, the proba-

bi l i ty of the i .dent i f icat j ,on being correct was better than 95 per cent" Ai 'Doubtful ' ! ident i f icat ion indicated that the choice was less posi t ive, but

that there was a better than even chance of being correct .

I_-t 1*1_ernpftep,f f-q g ? Bgin. !!at, a s..wg p . true. f o1 .q.!h" 1. pha.9.e s of e valua -. *__= ?T=

t1,91r plg,nrltrng,"y.'-"rq. fina1. f aerrtificafion- .,'y-"q,..ttg" jiea only to sCietttisls

a-na engi*.e s whor-. , !n, addlt ign. t9. t t rei . r . br9,4d scient i f ic.ba.ckground, had

fecei .ved instruct i .on, where necessary, in special ized subjects. The panel

of consultants provided background inf ,orrnat ion for this instruct ion. Many

of the cases represent ing unusual features or rnaneuvers were subrni t ted to

and discussed with var ious rnernbers of the panel of consul tants pr ior to the

f inal ident i f icat ion.

Consistency in the appl icat ion of the knowledge necessary for rnaking

ident i f icat ions was rnaintained by f requent colLaborat ion arnong the person-

nel involved,, and systernat ic spot checks of the work. In addit ion to the

generatr fund of knowi,edge required to id.ent i fy sat isfactor i ly a reported

unident i f ied aer ia l object , an at terrpt was rnade to correlate speci f ic data

such as f l ight p lans of a i . rcraf t , records of bal loon releases, weather con-

drt ions, and aze astronorni .catr alrrranac with the reported sight ing"

The procedure fo l lowed in rzraking f inal i .dent i f icat ions deserves ex-

planat ion because cf the i rnportance assurned by the ident i f icat ion as a ' basis

for stat ist ical t reatrnent" As was rnent ioned, a corr ference of four qual i f ied

persons, two frsrn ATIC and two frorn the pa.nel of celnsul tants, decided

upon the f inal ident i f icat ion for each sight ing report . This work was done

at ATIC, per i ,odica, t r ly , as reports becarne ready.

J*y.?.1,-g-,.+"g,1..4,q'Jifigq.ti-9,n-c9l]fe1en;e, 3ach sighting report was first

st"d;"a, ' " ' f ; ; ; "$;- ; ; ig1*. i -a i t l , by 'o"e'peison" I f that person arr ived at a

decis ion, i t was checked against the prel i rn inary ident i f icat ion; i f the two

ident i f icat ions were the sarne, the report was apPropr iately rnarked and

considered f in ished. I f the two ident i f icat ions did not agree' the report

was considered later by everyone part ic ipat ing in the conference unt i " l a

group decis ion could be rnade.

I f an evaluator was unable to categorize the report as one of the

corntTron objects or as a natural phenornenon, and his opinion was that the

sight ing should be recorded as UNKNOWN, a group decis ion was also re-

quired on that report before i t was considered { in ished. a.grogp de.c- is ion.

*w.as...De--c.egq.?-TJ.,o.Il"eU Lgp.,glts linally lecorded as UNKNOy*' rEg.gfdless of

"-"ghgl-"1-b_-.-_q,5ei i* inatV ldent i f icet |qqtrad.!9er i . . In cases where a graup

decis ion was not rnade within a reasonable t i rne, the report was put aside

and Later subrni t ted to certain rnernbers of the panel of consultants for their

opinions. I f , af ter this, disagreernent cont inued to exist , the report of , the

sight ing was ident i f ied as UNKNOWN.._"

xflrlr l i ,

,ll,I

4nLL

Upon cornplet ion of f inal ident i f icat ions,

IBM cards, preParatory to analysis.

ANALYSIS OF THE DATA

al l data were t ransferred to

Broadly stated, the problern at th is point consisted of the judic ious

appl icat ion of scient i f ic rnethods of categoriz ing and analyzing the sub-

ject ive data in reports of s ight ings of unident i f ied aer ia l objects. I t was

recog.r ized that an approach to th is problern could best be rnade by a sys-

ternat ic sort ing and tabulat ion Prograln to give frequency and percentage

distr ibut ions of the i rnportant character ist ics of s ight ings. A suggest ion

that an atternpt be rnade to ant ic ipate al l quest ions that rnight be asked in

the future about a sight ing or a group of s ight ings, and to provide answers'

was rejected. The systernat ic approach also rnade i t possible to develop

a detai led reference rnanual of the attr ibutes of the sight ings included in

this studY.

Thus, at the beginning of the analysis, a detai led plan was developed

for sort ing, count ing, and tabulat ing the inforrnat ion frorn the punched-card

abstracts of reports of s ight ings. I t was bel ieved at the t i rne, and later

substant iated, that the results of the Prograrn for sort ing'and tabulat ing

would serve as a guide for the rnore sophist icated treatrnent involving

stat ist ical rnethods.

Also, i twasant ic ipatedthatanypatternsortrendsthatrnightbefound could be subjected to concentrated study in the hope of discovering

signi f icant inforrnat ion relat ing to the character ist ics of t t f ly ing saucers" '

Further, i t was bel ieved that these trends could serve as certain of the

cr i ter ia of val idi ty for any concepts (rnodels) developed in the atternpt to

discover a c lass of t t f ly ing saucers ' r '

The three parts of this study ( t) t t re sort ing and tabulat ion prograrn,

(Z) the advancedltoay of the results of that prograrn, and (f) t f re invest iga-

t ion of the possibi l i ty of conceiv ing a rnodel of a I ' f ly ing saucerrr f rorn

descr ipt ions reported, are discussed in sect ions ent i t led t rFrequency and

Percentage Disir ibut ions by Character ist icsr ' , I 'Advanced Study of the Datarr '

and rrThe tFly ing Sauce'r t Modelr t '

The or iginal concept ion of this study assurned the avai labi l i ty of

suff ic ient data to descr ibe adequately the physical appearancer trraneuver

character ist ics, range, direct ion, and probable path of the object or

objects observed. H-owe',ret , f" t r i l iar i ty with the data, acquired during the

Percenta Distr ibut ions Characte r is t ic s

l4

t ranslat ion and transcr ipt ion frorn reports to punched cards, indicated thatthere would be relat ively few specif ic var iables or factors that would yieldrneaningful correlation studie s. ***hSg-*Ue*oJ.igf**?1..4_-+_1"1-lt"*t*g*1*r,.g**"**!j*e;:

.3iJtu^.-.os-th€*i,!a#.g]p]"9:"e_::::. .ot ".1hS.*.q*igi_m], :Sp___q"-rJs",rv.-p...s1d""F""e",Ll-e"!rsJ:--r*e*{g9 ethe sarnple of a specif ic*Variable.

Prel i rninary tabulat ions of var ious sort ings substant iated the i rn-possibi l i ty of der iv ing stat ist ical resul ts f rorn certain var iables, such asrnoverr lent of the observer during the sight ing, sound, shape pararneter,s ize, angular veloci ty and accelerat ion, appearance and disappearancebearing, in i t ia l and f inal elevat ion, al t i tude, and or ientat ion of the object.The stat ist ical ly usable var iables presented in th is study include the date,tirne, location, duration, reliability, and rnet\g5[*qf obserY*afion of thesighting, and the pf,lsical attrffites of nurnber, co*lor, sp*9g.-9, shape, lightbrig-htne ss, and identi5cation of thgp$s.cts*s"i"ghted.

The presentat ion of f requency and percentage distr ibut ions of any ofthe var iables rnust be interpreted in the l ight of the sarnple of incidentsrepresented. For exarnple, the analysis of the reported colors of the

objects s ighted, based on ALL SIGHTINGS, could lead to rnisrepresenta-t ion of the distr ibut ion of the reported color of the objects, because of the

rnult ip l ic i ty of reports on sorne of the phenornena. On the other hand, the

percentage distr ibut ion of the l ight br ightness reported by each observer

is rnore l ikely to be correct than a distr ibut ion based on one report for

each phenornenon. To assure that the rnost near ly correct Presentat ionwas rnade, and to avoid the possibi l i ty of fa i lure to uncover any pattern or

trend inherent in the data, the var iables were studied on f ive di f ferent

bases or sarnples. These sarnples, and their nurner ical re lat ion to each

other, were as fo l lows:

ALL SIGHTINGS (al l reports) 3r?0l cards

UNIT SIGHTINGS' al l observers 2r554 cards

UNIT SIGHTINGS, s ingle observer ZrZ3Z cards

UNIT SIGHTINGS, rnul t ip le observers - 322 cards

OBJECT SIGHTINGS 2,I99 cards

The prel i rninary tabDlaqions indicated that the sarnples based on UNIT

SIGHTINGS, s ingle observer, and UNIT SIGHTINGS, rnul t ip le observers '

would not add rnater ia l ly to th is study. Accordingly, a l though the fre-

quency distr ibut ions were recorded and are avai lable for study, they are

not presented in th is report .

The bases of ALL SIGHTINGS, UNIT SIGHTINGS (referr ing to al l

observers), and OBJECT SIGHTINGS are presented in Appendix A as

Tables Al through A240. A cr i t ical study of these tabulat ions reveals that

there is no apparent change in the distr ibut ion of any var iable f rorn one

basis to another, and that no rnarked patterns or t rends exist in any sarnple.

z3

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G raphical Pre sentat ion

Graphical representat ion of the i rnportant inforrnat ion contained in

the tables is presented in Figures I through 38. These f igures present the

distr ibut ions of the i rnportant var iables only by the total nurnber of cases

in each ident i f icat ion category, s ince no signi f icant di f ferences were found

between the distr ibut ions of r tCertainrt and trDoubtful t t ident i f icat ions of

objects wi th respect to the var iables. A chronological study of these

f igures wi l l af ford a broad picture of the tabulated inforrnat ion, without the

necessi ty of a detai led study of the tables.

A cr i t ical exarninat ion of the f igures wi l l -ehow that no trendst Patternst

or cor ielat ions are to bC--fog *i t t r t t t . except ion of Figures I8 through 3

Tfr- +p;rent sirni lari ty of the distr ibutions shown by these rnirror graphs'

Figures I8 throug]n 23, was teqted by statist ical rnFthods wlr3]l ihoYed that

there was a low Probabi l i ty S and

UNKNOWNS b ELi l " . t "" ist ics were the sarne. These tests and their

owing sect ion' For purposes of th is

study, the strategic areas, shown in Figures 3Z through 38, and Tables

1-zz3 through lz io, Appendix A, were designated on the basis of concen-

trat ion of reports of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in an area. No other interpre-

tat ion of the tables or rernaining charts was deerned necessary.

Advanced Study of the Data

I t was recognized that the lack of any patterns or t rends, as shown by

the tabulat ions.rrd gr.phs, provided an insecure basis for drawing def in i te

conclusions. Accordingly, short ly before the sort ing and tabulat ion pro-

grarrr was concluded, a prograrr l of study of the data was developed to

ut i l ize stat ist ical and other rnathernat ical rnethods, which could lead to a

rr lore concrete interpretat ion of the problern'

Posi t ion of the Sun Relat ive to the Observer

The f i rst th ing that was done was to calculate the angle of e levat ion of

the sun above the hor izon and i ts bear ing f rorn t rue north as seen by the

observer at the t i rne of each sight ing. \Mith th is inforrnat ion, i t could then

be deterrnined whether there was a possibi l i ty that the reported object

could have been i l lurninated by l ight f rorn the sun. In addi t ion, i t could be

deterrnined whether an object could be a rnock sun (sun dog) or whether

there was a possibi l i ty of specular ref lect ion f rorn an aircraf t at the posi-

t ion of the object , which would give the appearance of a ' r f ly ing disc ' r '

Aprograrnofcornputat ionwassetupandcarr iedouttoobtaintheangle of e levat ion and the bear ing of the sun for each sight ing' A11 inforrna-

t ion needed for th is calculat ion was avai lable on the deck of IBM cards'

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s{This inforrnat ion consisted of:

( l ) Tirne and date of observat ion in Greenwich Civi l T i rne

(Zl Lat i tude and longitude of the observer at the t i rne ofobservat ion.

Figure 39 shows a celest ia l sphere on which Z represents the ob-

serverr s zeni th, s represents the sun, and N represents the north celest ia lpole.

Using the date and t i rne of the observat ion, the longitude and decl ina-

t ion (S) of the sun were obtained frorn an epherneris of the sun and correctedfor the equat ion of t i rne. The di f ference between the longitudes of the sunand the observer was taken, and cal led the hour angle (F{A on Figu}e 39).

Then, using the decl inat ion of the sun (S), the lat i tude of the observer( tat) , and the hour angle (EA), the angle (Zg) U.t*een the observerts zeni th

and the sun can be calculated frorn the law of cosines of spherical t r igo-

nornetry. Thus, cos ZS = cos (90 - lat) cos (90 - S) + s in (90 - lat) s in(go - s) cos (FIA).

Since the angle ZS is rneasured frorn the observerr s zeni th, the angle

of elevat ion of the sun above the horizon for dayt i rne sight ings was found by

taking gO -re. When the sun was below the hor izon, the angle of depres-

sion of the sun below the horizon was found by taking B - gO.

Having found the angle ZS, t t .e bearing of the sun (angle B) was ob-

tained frorn the forrnula:

s in (B) _sin (90 - S)

A11 of the above calculat ions were rnade with IBM equiprnent. Sines,

cosines, and their inverses were obtained frorn a deck of 9r 000 IBM cards

on which seven-place Petert s tables of the s ines, cosines, and tangents of

angles had been punched for each 0.01 of a degree frorn 0 to 90 degrees.

Upon cornplet ion of these calculat ions, the cards represent ing OBJECT

SIGHTINGS were sorted on the sign of the sine of the bearing angle. This

separated the cards into two groups: (1) s ight ings which occurred between

noon and rnidnight, for which the sine of the bearing angle was posit ive; and

(Z) sight ings between rnidnight and noon, for which the sine of the bearing

angle was negat ive. Then each of these groups was sorted into groups for

intervals of 10" in angle of e levat ion of the sun frorn -90" to +90". A count

was rnade of the nurnber of cards in each group and frorn this a histograrn

was constructed (Figure 40). The UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS were

then sorted out, counted in the same rr lanner, and a histogram was rnade

(again see Figure 40).

36

Fior izon

FIGURE 3 9 DIAGRAM OF A CE LESTIAL SPHERE

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3guThe fol lowing points should be careful ly noted about these histograrns:

( l ) The negl igible nurnber of s ight ings when the sun is withinI0" of the zenith and nadir (angle of elevat ion of the sun =

*90") of the observer is due to the fact that the southern-rnost lat i tude of the U. S. is greater than the decl inat ionof the sun at the surnrner solst ice, so that i t would be irn-possible for the sun to reach the zenith or nadir of anyobserver in the U. S. (where rnost of the s ight ings werernade).

(Z) The t i rne of day at which a part icular angle of elevat ionof the sun occurs does not rernain f ixed but var ies frorn

day to day. Consider, for exarnple, the var iat ion in

sunr ise and sunset t i rnes over the course of a year.

Thus, there are only two inferences to be rnade frorn this histograrn:( t ) t t re high peak of s ight ings soon af ter sunset, and (2) the lack of increase

in the UNKNOWNS relat ive to the KNOWNS near ei ther sunset or sunrise.

This would seern to discount the possibi l i ty that atrnospheric phenornena

such as rnock suns were the pr irnary cause of the unknown reports, s ince

such phenornena usual ly occur when the sun is near the horizon.

The Local Sun Tirne was cornputed as a step in the calculat ion of the

angle of elevat ion of the sun. I t is related to the hour anglg by the equat ion:

Local Sun Tirne (r- .s.T.) = I lA/15 + 12.00, where L.S-T. is in hours and

FIA in degrees.

The cards were grouped on the basis of L.S.T. in intervals of one

houri and the nurnber of cards in each interval was counted. Again the

UNKNOWNS were sorted out and sirni lar ly t reated. Histograrns were con-

structed with the re'sul ts of these tabulat ions of OBJECT SIGHTINGS

(Figure 4l) . Here, again, there is a peak in the ear ly evening hours.

The cards were then broken up into seven

angle of elevat ion of the sun, as fol lows:

groups on the basis of the

sun was rnore than

sun was between 0"

sun was between 0"

Group I -

Group 2 -

Group 3 -

Group 4 -

Dayl ight s ight ings for which the

I0" above the hor izon.

Sunset sight ings for which the

and 10" above the horizon.

Sunset sight ings for which the

and 10" below the horizon.

Evening sight ings for which the

10" and 40" below the hor izon.sun was between

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4o'Group 5 - Night s ight ings for which the sun was Inore than l0 '

below the hor izon and which were not included in

GrouP 4.

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and 10" below the hor izon.

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and l0o above the hor izon.

These grouP nurnbers were punched on the cards and incorporated

into the coding systern. The nurnber of oBJECT SIGHTINGS in each grouP

for each ident i f icat ion was then tabulated and is given in Table I .

TABLE I OBJECT SIGHTINGS

A eof Elevat ion Grou

Ident i f ic at ion

B al loonA s tr onornic alA i rc r af tLight phenornenaInsuff ic ie nt inf orrnat ionUNKNOWNOther

TotaI 673 82 r87 764 375 25 24

According to th is table, a large rnajor i ty of the KNowN oBJECT

SIGHTINGS in Group I (343 out of 457) were ei ther aircraf t or bal loons. In

Groups 4 and 5 cornbined, a large rrrajor i ty (681 out of 899) were ei ther

bal loons, aircraf t , or astronornical . Accordinglyr a re-evaluat ion of the

UNKNOWNS in these three groups was planned with the object ive of deter-

rnining which of the UNKNOWNS in Group I rnight possibly be aircraft or

bal loons and which of the UNKNOWNS in Groups 4 and 5 rnight possibly be

bal loons, aircraf t , or astronornical objects. More wi l l be said of th is

project later.

Stat ist ical Chi Square Test

In the rneant irne, rnirror graphs had been constructed frorn the fre-

quency tabulat ions which seerned to show that, when the KNOWNS (total less

UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS were grouped according to one of s ix

character ist ics, the percentage of KNOWNS and the percentage of

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T /UNKNOWNS in each character ist ic group showed the sarne general t rend.

In other words, on the basis of these graphs, i t looked as though there was

a good possibi l i ty that the UNKNOWNS were no di f ferent f rorn the KNOWNS,

" l l . "" t in the aggregate. I t was decided to invest igate th is by the use of a

stat ist ical procedure cal led the | tChi Square Testrr .

The Chi Square Test is a stat ist ical test of the l ikel ihood that two

distr ibut ions corne frorn the sarne populat ion, that is , i t g ives the proba-

bi l i ty that there is no di f ference in the rnake-up of the two distr ibut ions

being rr leasured.

The rnethod is outLined as fo l lows:

( l ) Adjust the distr ibut ions by rnul t ip ly ing the KNOWNS in each

character ist ic group by the rat io of the total nurnber of

UI{KNOWNS to the total nurnber of KNOWNS. ( t t re Ctr i

Square Test is appl icable only to distr ibut ions which have

the sarne total nurnber of e lernents. )

(z) Take the di f ference between the nurnber of UNKNOWNS and

the adjusted nurnber of KNOWNS in each character ist ic

grouP.

(3) Square the rernainder f rorn Step Z.

(4) Div ide the resul t of Step 3 by the correspondi .ng nurnber of

adjusted KNOWNS.

This is the chi square for the part icular group. Surnrning the indi-

v iduatr chi squares over the groups of a character ist ic gives the chi square

for that character ist ic" This nurnber i .s then cornpared with a table o{ the

distr ibut ion of chi square which can be found in rnany texts on elernentary

stat ist ics"

I t wi l l be noted that chi square is tabulated in terrns of degrees of

f reedorn which in th is case is one less than the nurnber of groups of s ight-

ings for each character ist ic.

The tabulat ions of KNO\I /NS and UNKNOWNS against the s ix char-

acter ist ics and the Chi Square Test as i t was appl ied are shown in Tables

I I through VII" In each case, the nurnber of degrees of f reedorn is givent

as is the value of chi squares corresponding to probabi l i t ies of 5 per cent

and I per cent that two distr ibut ions wi th th is nurnber of degrees of f reedorn

corne frorn the sarne populat ion. Srnce the greater the value of chi square

the srnal ler the probabi l i ty of hornogenei ty of two distr ibut ions, a calculated

value of chi square greater than ei ther the 5 per cent or I per cent ' ra lueswi l l i ld icate a probabi l i ty less than 5 per cent or I per cent, respect ively,

that the two distr ibut ions are hornogeneous" The terrn hornogenei ty is used

here to indicate that two distr i .but ions could have corr le f rorn the sarne

populat i .on" 6 i

sk+Z. rn {!,g o{ Ih.g sitgrsgs,*}-be- glqPali\1ly-is lsrl tran I Per-:-g9l*thfl

-jL. uio.t".tooJto se' Light Brightness' the

classi f icat io, 's f f is tobeofrealvalue.However, thesetestsdo not necessar i ly rnean that the UNKNOWNS are pr i rnar i ly " f ly ing saucersr l

and not aircraft , bal loons, or other known objects or natural phenornena'

The UNKNOWN6 rnight st i l l be unident i f ied KNOWNS i f ei ther of the fol low-

ing cases occurred:

( I )Thecharacter ist icswhichwereobservedfortheUNKNoWNSweredi f ferentfrornthoseobservedfortheKNowNsbecauseof the psychological rnake-up of the observer or because of

atrnoslheric distort ion. This assurnes the distr ibut ion of

objects in KNOlffNS and UNKNOWNS is the same'

(2)TheUNKNoWNSrnaybeknownobjects indi f ferentpropor-t ions than the group ident i f ied as KNOIi INS' (That ' is ' a

,greater percentage of the UNKNOWNS could be aircraft

than the percentage of aircraft in the ic lent i f ied KNowNS')

The second case is the Inore probable one. In this connect ion, i t is

interest ing to note the factors which contr ibuted to a large chi square

result in the tests rnade above:

( l ) Color

The rnajor contribution to chi square in color is frorn the

color green. There is a large excess-:- f -green sight ings

among the KNOWNS over the UNKNOWNS' Of the 130

known objects in this classi f icat ion' 98 areLstronornical '

and are due rnost ly to the green f i rebal ls reported frorn

the Southwest U. S.

Nurnber

The large chi square is due to a greater proport ion of

UNKNOWNS in the rnultiple objeci classification. Apparently

these are harder to ident i fY'

Shape

ln this caser there is a higher Percentage of UNKNOWNS

in the rocket-aircraft-shape classi f icat ion' These rnight

be farni l iar objects for which unusual rnaneuvers were

reported.

There is a higher Percentage of KNOWNS in the f larne

and in the rneteo"-^ o" come-t-shape category' which in

both cases aPpears to result rnainly frorn excesses of

astronornical s ight ings'

(z l

(3)

68

t/ +3(4) Durat ion of observat ion

Here there is an excess of KNOWNS irr the less-than-5-second group. Again, the major i ty o{ KNOWNS inthis group are astronornical . The greater proport ion

of UNKNOWNS in the 3l- to 60-second and 6I-secondto 5-rninute groups cannot be explained.

(5) Speed

The rnajor contr ibut ion to chi square for this char-acter ist ic is due to a large excess of UNKNOWNS inthe over 400-rnph class. I t can be assurned that sorneof the excessive speeds are inaccuracies in est i rnatesby observers. However, solne radar s ight ings, whichare pract ical ly i rnpossible to ident i fy, show objectswith speeds of 1r000 to 2r 000 rnph and over, and thesereports account for a nurnber of these UNKNOWNS.

(6) Light br ightness

Since this chi square was not s igni f icant, i t is notnecessary to discuss i t here.

An exarninat ion of these discrepancies thus br ings up a very interest-

ing point . In every case for which there is a s igni f icant excess of KNOWNS

over UNKNOWNS, the excess can be at t r ibuted to an excess of ident i f iableastronornical phenornena. This would seern to lead to the conclusion thatastronornical phenorrrena are easy to ident i fy and there are very few lef t inthe UNKNOWNS. Accordingly, the astronornical object s ight ings weredeleted frorn the KNOWN object s ight ings and the Chi Square Test was againappl ied. The resul ts are shown in Tables VII I through XII I , where in th iscase the KNOWNS do not contain astronornical s ight ings.

I t wi l l be noted that sorne groups were cornbined when the adjusted

nurnber of KNOWNS was ten or less, except for the case for which the

nurnber of objects per s ight ing was the character ist ic studied. These were

borderl ine cases, and no good cornbinat ion of groups existed.

I t is apparent that the delet ion of astronornical s ight ings gives a better

f i t , a l though the decis ion is not c lear cut , s ince for two cases ( l ight br ight '

ness and speed), the chi square increased. However, i t can again be pointed

out that the report ing of these two character ist ics is highly subject ive and is

open to quest ion. The est i rnat ion of speed is especial ly open to quest ion

because of the i rnpossibi l i ty of accurately deterrnining i t v isual ly.

li

;

,ri

69

4+

Another interest ingasPectof thesenewtestsisthatthereareonly

twolargediscrepanciesinal lof thegrouPs.Theseareforthel lormoregroups in the classi f icat ion by numbe-r of object3 P€r sight ing and for the

over40o-mPhandmeteor- l ikegrouPfortheclassi f icat ionbyspeed.Thef i rst was relat ively unchangea [y aetet ion of the astronomical s ight ingr

pr incipal ly because of the Joncentrat ion of s ight ings in the s inglc-object

catesory.Thesecondwassl ight ly increasedbytheremovalof thcactro-nomical s ight ings f rom the meieor- l ike c lassi f icat ion' However ' the main

discrepancy,thatof thee*. .""ofUNKNowNsintheover-40O-mPhclasl 'was l i t t le changed'

/ - r r . .^-a rc lusive s ince they nei ther conf i rm

tr t "", o.:;",ff;ll:" -m;lT':":T"i::i:n,

unidentiriea xisowNS, arthough!li they<loindicatethatrelat ivelyferrrof theUNKNowNsareactual lyastro-

i I nomical Phenomena'

I + 'ed to i ts logical7* l t was clecic led that th is process would not be carrr

conclusron(th:r t is , thedeterminat ionofal inearcombinat ionofKNoWNSthatwotr ldgivcirnegl ig ib lechi"q ' .ore.whencomparedwiththeUNKNoWNS)'s ince i t was fel t that the inaccuracies in the reports would give a distorted

;r t rc l nre;rningless resul t '

+L/ L TABLE II CHI SOUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUSUNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF COLOR

y' t , /+ -+ , ' ,

l/e( '

Adjusted ,*Ili'Color

Nurnber ofKNOWNS

Nurnber ofKNOWNS (K)

Nurnber ofUNKNoWNS (n)

rffhite

Metal l icNot statedOrangeRedYel lowGreenBlueOther

Total

405313zo9t7zL46l2813067

195

100775l4Z363l3Zt748

l l2766z49t33ll4z63l

t .440. 0l2.37l . 17o. 25

010. l34.766. 02

Degreee of f reedom

L765 434 434 26. t5

8

r5.520. I

5%r%

TABLE UI CHI SOUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUSUNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF NUMBER

Number ofObjects Per

AdjustedNumber of Nurnber of Nurnber of

x2,(K-nP

KSighting KNOWNS KNOWNS (K) UNKNOWNS (n)

Iz

3- l0I I or moreNot stated

Total

Degrees of f reedorn

I 3391591854l4l

3293946l0l0

29737?0z5

5

3. l r0. l0

tz.5222.502. s0

5TolTo

r 76s 434 434 40. ?3

4

9.513. 3

6z 63

*3 a*

zo=FOs6-t lrl=8,i1t j--U'tL LtJo=

6TU)r(EO

f (t'

> lrJOF(JF

l!o

etrJEo\6C)T6<UJ

'<E,Fa

Lrj:trFzCN(9

=FII(nFc)lr,

-clol!o

FroLdgc)(9

l!

oS:qoN<tq

ESbq:ai

oE=oE-

.96

i9eocr

6-oolo

oo.E

cI.9 .9ED'-o-EO

l

-EOOO9

3g

E

Jo(t,

ooocood)

: *!o90

.:No; lrq

{g

is3c!|r)

5N i5oaq

' +sTABLE ry CHI SOUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUSUNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SHAPE

AdjuatedNurnber of Number of Number of itu

Kshape KNowNs KNOWNS (K) UNKNOWNS (n)

El l ipt icalRocket and aircraf t

Meteor or cornetTea rdrop, lent icular,

or conicalFlarneOtherNot stated

Total

Degrees of f reedom

8388055

103

96193400

zo6zol4z5

z44798

195334

z2

l054

l l6

0. 598.457.140.36

8. l?l . 043. 30

5%r%

17 65 434 434 29.05

6

12.6r6.8

TABLE V CHI SOUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS

ON THE BASIS OF DURATION OF OBSERVATION

Adjusted YZ, ^

Durat ion of Nurnber of Nurnber of Nurnber of (K-n)c

Observat ion KNOWNS KNOWNS (K UNKNOWNS

5 sec or less6-10 secI l -30 sec3l-60 sec6l sec-5 rnin6-30 rninOver 30 rninNot stated

Total

Degrees ef f reedorn

5Tor%

25992

153r08269305135444

64z338z6667533

t09

zvzl334Z997L37

104

21.390. l70. 659.85

16.500. 2l0. 48o. 23

1765 434 434 49.49

7

14. I18. 5

64 65

46TABLE VI CHI SOUARE TEST OT' KNOWNS \IERSUS

UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED

Speed

StationarYLess than 100 mPh100 to 400 rnphOver 400 rnphMeteor-l ikcNot stated

Total


KNOWNS UNKNOWNS

434 434

Number ofKNOWNS

249154l8l40383

69s

1765

AdjustcdNumber of Numbcr of

53z658

145l6

136

6r384599zo

t?t

l . 053.793. ?6

2t.370.807. l6

37.93

5

I l .15.

II

sshtsh

TABLE VII CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS

ON THE BASIS OF LIGHT BRIGHTNESS

Adjusted , , ! - , , ,Nurnber of Nurnber of Nurnber of (5-t t ) '

KNowNs KNOWNS (K) UNKNO1f,NS (n) K

Sunl ight on mirrorSunl ight on aluminumSunl ight on plaster,

stone, or soi lBr ighter than rr loonLike rnoon or dul ler

than rnoonNot stated

TotaI


l4z8l6

6lzz

l l37l9

67t7

47t5l76

27368

293

0.82z. 19o.47

0. 551.47

0.35l150 283

5Tollo

1765 434 434 s. 85

5

l l . l15. I

6766

r7TABLE VII I CHI SOUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS

UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF COLOR

x2,

Color KNOWNS KNOWNS (K) UNKNOWNS (n)Nurnber of (ry-")2

KNr-lrnber of

AdjustedNumber of

WhiteMetal l icNot statedOrangeRedYel lowG reenBlq.le

Other

Totat

z8t298189l l7929032z9

158

95l0l64393l30l ll053

l lz766249333tt4261

I3rJ

3. 046. 190.062. 560. l30.030.82

o.57


r 286 434 434 13. 40

1t

14. I18. 5

\YolVo

TABLE IX CHI SQU"&RE TtrST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUSUNKNOWNS ON THE tsASIS OF NUMBER

Nurnber ofObjects Per Nurnber of

KNOI,VNS

AdjustedNurnber of Number of

x2,(K-")z

KSisht in

Iz

3- l r )I I or r r lore

Not stated

Total

KNOWI"IS (K UNKNOWNS (n

913t42168

34z9

3084E57l l10

2973770z5

5

0. 392. 522.96

r5.362,.50

Degrees o{ fneedorrr

5Voj fn

r a86 434 434 23.73

4

9"5l? a

iI t At /4 g, TABLE X CHI SCIUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VIRSUS

' ut uNKNowNS oN THE BAsIs oF 'HAPE

AdjustedNurnber of Numbcr of

X2,(K-niz

KKNOWNS (K UNKNOWNSSha

El l ipt icalRocket or ai rcraf t

Meteor or comet

FlArneTeardroP, lent iculart

or cdnicalOthe r

N ot sta ted

Total


5Tollo

Number ofKNOWNS

6327Z

94779

l5l296

l 286

zl3z4

3l627

5l100

19533

,l)zz

54r l6

l . 523. 3?

l . 32

0.93

l . 762.56

r1.46

t

I t . rt5. r

414 414

TABLE XI CHI SQUARE TEST

ON THE BASIS OFOF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS

DURATION OF OBSERVATION

AdjustedNurnber of Nurnber of (K-")z

Durat ion of

Observat ion

5 sec or less

6-10 sec

I l -30 sec

3l-60 sec5l sec-5 rnin

6 min-30 min

Over 30 rnin

Not stated

Total


5ToLTo

Nurnber of

KNOWNS

9Z47

l l89Z

25z2599l

335

r 286

KNOWNS (K UNKNOWNS

3ll6403I85873l

l t3

z72l334Z997l37

104

0.52r . 56t. 233.90z.3r2.94l . r6o.7 z

434 434 14. 34

7

14. I18.5

13 7Z

,./

+9TABLE XII CHI SOUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS

UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED

AdjustedNurnber of Nurnber of

Speed KNOWNS KNOWNS (K)Nurnber of

UNKNOWNS (n)

urzAt

(K-nizK

Stat ionaryLess than 100 rnph100 to 400 rnphOver 400 mphMeteor- l ikeNot stated

Total

Degrees of t reedom

5ToIto

196l2815529rz4

49r

66435t98

8166

532658

t45l6

136

2.566.7 29.47

28.54

5. 42)

l 286 434 434 43.7 |

4

9.513. 3

' I 'AI}LE XII I CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUSUNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF LIGHT BRIGHTNESS

AdjustedNurnber of Nurnber of

L- ight I l r ightncss KNOWNS KNOWNS (K)Number of

UNKNowNS (n)

Yz, ̂(K-n)a

K

Sunl ight on nr i r ror

Sunl ight on alurninum

Sunl ight on plaster,

stotr t : , or soi l

I l r ightc r than rrroon

Like rnoon or dul ler

th;r r r nroon

Not st ; r ted

'l ' t-r t; r I

l ) r :gr t 'c s <-r I f rcedonr

5TolTo

z413663

14342

878

8462t

48l5

296

6lzz

293

z. 67

l . rg

3.523.27

0.03

t* I28 1l6

I 286 434 4J4 10.68

4

9.13.3

74 75

tc,,/

The "Fly ing Saucerrr Model

The irnportance of the problern dictated a second approach, should the

stat ist ical resul ts prove inconclusive. I t was decided that an at ternpt

would be rnade to descr ibe the physical appearance, f l ight character ist ics,

and other at t r ibutes ( that is , construct a rnodel) of a c lass or c lasses of

" f ly ing saucersr! .

Preparatory to this atternpt, a re-evaluat ion of the UNKNOWNS was

necessary. This re-evaluat ion was accornpl ished by a panel cornposed only

of persons previously associated with the work. Using al l the UNKNOWNS

reports avai lable at ATIC, the panel rnade a careful study of the reports for_--f f i f f iKNOWN SlCtt f t IGS in angle<f-sun<Ievat ion Groups I , Z, 3, 5, and

7 - those groups f ior which the sun was ei ther above the horizon or less than

l0 ' in elevat ion bdlow the hor izon.

This study had two purposes. The f i rst was to deterrnine, wi th

addit ional inforrnat ion such as the angle of elevat ion of the sun, how rnany

of the UNKNOWNS rnight be ascr ibed to known phenornena. The second was

to obtain those UNKNOWNS which were descr ibed in suf f ic ient detai l that

they rnight be used to construct a rnodel or rnodels of " f ly ing saucerstr .

I t was decided to put any of the UNKNOWNS which rnight be known

phenornena into a ' rpossible KNOWN" category to denote the s l ight ly lower

conf idence level which could be ascr ibed to these new evaluat ions. The

TO

{ /

,UNKNOWNS *it\ p:"f{',. i.'tly g "*,i1" d d:',

" ".'gti,"+It. b:

:i}}e d'' good

. UNKNOWNI', whilEffiE-E?ffiinder would sirn .One hundred sixty- four fo lders of a total of 186 OBJECT SIGHTINGS inGroups 1, Z, 3, 6, and 7 were exarnined. The:e were 18 possible aircraf t ,20possib1eba1loons,7goodUNKNowNS,l00UNKNowNs@ffid EFTEing posETSle KNOWNS of various types. It isinterest ing to note that two of these were establ ished as rnock suns on thebasis of the angle of sun elevat ion and the sun bear ing angle, together wi ththe direct ion of the object f rorn the observer. In addi t ion, the UNKNOWNSin angle-of-sun-elevat ion Groups 4 and 5 (nightt i rne sight ings) were scanned

with no at ternpt at ident i f icat ion, but to f ind any possible rrgood UNKNOWNSTIThere were f ive s ight ings that could be put into th is category.

e th were approxirnatel Z0 sisht inss that were

obser in such a wav that thev should have been recognized eas

had been farni l iar objects, that is, there was l i t t le ssibi l i ty that lr

sha as seenlcould have been distorted suff ic ient l one cause ora render thern u There were a verv l/{/1d

have been

ident i f ied

ident i f ied as guided rnissi les or rockets, butbecause of the geographical locat ion in which

that were not so

they were seen.

A11 of the rernaining UNKNOWNS were classi f ied as such solely be-

cause they were reported to have perforrned rnaneuvers that could not be

ascr ibed to any known objects. In these cases, the shape rnight have been

unrecognizable also, but i t was fel t that th is was because of d istort ion and

distance, or because of darkness.

This is a very i rnportant point . To put i t d i f ferent ly, i f these

UNKNOWNS, which represent al l but about 40 of the UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS

were reported to have perforrned rnaneuvers which could be ascr ibed to

known phenornena, they would probably have been ident i f ied as KNOWNS.

With the except ion of sorne radar s ight ings, a l l of these rnaneuvers were

observed visual ly. The possibi l i t ies for inaccuracies are great because

of the inabi l i ty of an observer to est i rnate v isual ly s ize, d istance, and

speed"

Reports of s ight ings by radar usual ly were of h igh-speed objects,

sorne at extrernely high al t i tudes. Sorne were ident i f ied as UNKNOWNS

because there was no object to be seen visual ly at the point indicated by the

radar set" I t cannot be said wi th any assurance what these radar s ight ings

rr tean, but the rnost logical explanat ion is that they are ground targets re-

f lected by an atrnospher ic ternperature inversion layer. The val id i ty of th is

staternent cannot be establ ished. I t is fe l t that radar s ight ings in th is study

are of no s igni f icance whatsoev"t L

rs rnaoe.

Taken in conjunct ion wi th the Chi Square Tests discussed ear l ier ,the resul ts of the re-evaluat ion of reports ident i f ied as UNKNOWNSIGHTINGS would seerr l to indicate that the rnajor i ty of thern could easi ly

77

t/

5zhave been farni l iar objects. However, the resolut ion of this quest ion withany degree of certainty appears to be i rnpossible.

Thus, out of the 434 OBJECT SIGHTINGS that were ident i f ied as.UNKNOWNS by the data reduct ion process, there were only lZ thatweredescribed with suff ic ient detai l that they could be used in an atternpt toder ivearnode1@Thefo11owingisasurnInaryoftheIZg""d UNKNOWN StCnriNCS;

I rvCase-I (Ser ia l 0573. 00)

Two rnen ernployed by a rug-cleaning f i r rn were dr iv ing across abr idge at 0955 hours or-r July 29, 1948, when they saw an object g l ide across

seen for only a few seconds and apparent ly went down in a wooded area,although no trace of it was found.

6' to 8'

the road a few hundred feet in front of thern. It was shiny and rnetallic inconstruct ion, about 6 to 8 feet lorg eldZ {u"t :ry id. . I t was in a f lat gl idepath at an altitud"

"?T6liffi.t and in a rnoderate turn to the left. It was

M16;; r_,r.i,

l - l /2 'x2'

These ore round cups which protrude Case - f

Case I I (Ser ia l 4508.00)

A naval aviat ion student, his wife, and several others were at a

dr ive- inrnoviefrornZl I5toZ24ohoutson@duringwhicht i rne they saw several groups of objects f ly over. There were frorn two to

nine objects in a group and there were about 20 groups. The groups of

78

IvI

objects f lew in a straight l ine except for sorne changes in direct ionaccornpl ished in a rrranner l ike any standard aircraf t turn.

{3y'tit,,*- ,' ,

P{ r t'.i{'""

The objects were shaped l ike convent ional a i rcraf t . The unaccount-abte GElu-ie-i i f in6 o"bj;; i ;- ;aJ'thit . i fach;"1i i l ;- ; ; ;r;*-;;rrounding it andwas glowing i tsel f , a l though i t was a c loudless night.

Light glow

^-C.ase T

Case I I I (Ser ia l 2013.00, 20L4.00, and 20f 4. 0t)

Two towel ogeratgrs s ighted a l ight over a c i ty airport at Z0ZO hours

"%{i-Ju;;y2d' , 125' l Sincd

" .o.rr .rrurcial plane was taking off at this

t i rne, the pi lots were asked to invest igate th is l ight . They observed i t at2026 hours. According to thern, i t f lew abreast of thern at a greaterradius as they rnade their c l i rnbing turn, dur ing which t ime i t bl inked so1.ael ights which looked l ike running l ights. Whi le the observing plane was st i l lin i ts c l i rnbing turn, the object rnade a turn toward the plane and f lew acrossi ts nose. As the two rnen turned their heads to watch i t , i t instant lyappeared on their other side f ly ing in the sarne direct ion as they weref ly ing, and then in z or 3 seconds i t s l ipped under thern, and they did notsee i t again. Tota1 t i rne of the observat ion was not stated. In appearance,i t was l ike an airplandwith a cigar-shaped body and strarght wings, sorne-what larger than a B-2,9. No engine nacel les were observed on the wings.

)i t ht l r ' ' - i.1 C

79

* E',.,,,

5+

&(Jn e l tT €r r A' : ' ,'1 a

a '

Case IV (Ser ia l 4599.00)

A part- t i rne farrner and a hired hand were cu: ing tobacco at rnidnight

on July I9, 1952, when they looked up and saw twot igar-shaped objects.

Cese I fll, l

/s Tn{. pt t lut( 0t

] i *vrr a. ' i l i ,e

One hovered whi le the other rnoved to the east and carne back, at which

t inre both ascended unt i l out of s ight. Durat ion of observat ion was 3 to 4

rninutes. Both had an exhaust at one end, and neither had project ions of any

kind. I t was stated that they appeared to be transparent and i l lurninated

frorn the inside.

,) ! : , ,

_ -h( l i t> Oo. ' r ;l

* f i "/r- I t l

' : - l! t ' { . -

f

o i : l "c j , i

1" , , , :6{ f Lnlon,o:

a.c l JoE: . ,o j sf"cr , ' f r ' ' ; r

ont o

J, I/ cit o i

ho1,,:-

,e " jc.)

Exhou st

r: , ._ 0h '* ,1f f ia.7

80

l/V (Ser ia l

(<

Case 0565.00 to 0565.03)

A pi lot and copi lot were f ly ing a DC -3 at 0340 hours on JuIaZ4, 1948,whentheysawanobjectcorningtowardthern. I tpassedt" t f f islightly above thern, at which time it went rmto 4__eltegll climb and was lostfrorn sight in sorne clouds. Potrtseconds. One passenger was able to catch a f lash of l ight as the objectpassed. The object seerned powered by rocket or jet rnotors shoot ing atrai l of f i re sorne 50 feet to the rear of the object. The object had no wingsor other protrusion and had two rows of l ighted windows.

P i lor

Casef

Copilor

Windows withwhi ie l ighr

8 l

{r"Case Vt (Ser iaL 48ZZ.0O)

An instrurnent technician, whi le dr iv ing frorn a Large ci ty toward an

Air Force base on Decernbet 22, 1952, saw an object f rorn his car at 1930

hours. He stoppeff i t suddenly rnoved up toward the

zenith in spurts frorn r ight to lef t atan angle of about 45". I t then rnoved

off in level f l ight at a high rate of speed, during which rnaneuver i t appeared

white rnost of the t i rne, but apparent ly rol led three t i rnes showing a red

side. About halfway througb i ts ro11 i t showed no l ight at al l . I t f inal ly

assurned a posit ion to the south of the planet Jupiter at a high al t i tude' at

which posit ion i t darted back and forth, lef t and r ight al ternately. Total

t i rne of the observat ion was 15 rninutes. Apparent ly, the observer just

stopped watching the objeff-

*L igrf oFFrcE oF rr{tr,onMarrolt#:i l :

rnfornation Dj.vj sion

*F,kt,irur"t*i^7,1m

Cascf

\II

Deep red

82

t/-

s7Case VII (Ser ia l Z7Z8.OO)

A Fl ight sergeant saw an object over an Air Force base in Korea ato84z hours o" Jryjr-s. l3. The object f lew in a ser ies of spi inning andturnbl ing act iSi?. r t *" i r . r an errat ic course, f i rst f ry ing lever, thenstopping rnornentar i ly, shoot ing straight up, f ly ing lever and again turnbl ing,then changing course and disaplear ing into the sun. r t reappeared and wasseen f ly ing back and forth across the sun. At one t ime an F-g5 passedbetween the observer and the object . He pointed i t out to another rnan whosaw i t as i t maneuvered near th. "orr .

Block l ines evenly spocedProportion 7 to I

(Dimensions ore osshown in observer 'sor ig inol drowing)

Rotoii

\

/

,n\

\I

Case W

vtuCase vUt (Ser ia1 0576.00)

An electr ic ian was standing by the bathroorn window of his horne,

facing west, " t

OSZS_H""r . I " t

J" ly hen he f i rst s ighted an object .

He ran to his ki tchen where he pointed out the object to his wife. Total

t i rne in sight was approxirnately l0 seconds, dur ing which the object f lew

on a straight and level course frorn horizon to horizon, west to east.

Case Wt(Rotio opprox. 3:l)

84

- f?Case (Ser ia l 0066.00)

A farrner and his two sons, aged 8 and 10, were at h is { ishing carrrp

olAugugt I3, 1947: At about I300 hours, he went to look for the boys,having sent thern to the r iver for sorne tape frorn his boat. He not iced anobject sorne 3. 00 fget gwa_y, 75 _feet above t le grouqd. He saw i t againstthe background o-f the canygn walt which was 400 {e9t hfg]1 at this point. I twas hedge hopping, fol lowing the contour of the ground, was sky blue,about ZA f .eet in diarneter and 10 feet th ick, and had pods on the side f rornwhich f larnes were shoot i .ng out. I t rnade a swishing sound. The observerstated that the t rees were highly agi tated by the craf t as i t passed over.His two sons also observed the object . No one saw the object for rnorethan a few seconds.

Side view

r -f--LasL IL

End view

85

(cCase X (Ser ia l 1I19. 00)

An ernployee in the supersonic laboratory of an aeronaut ical lab-

oratory and sorne other ernployees of th is lab, were by a r iver, Z- l /Z

rni les f rorn i ts rnouth, when they saw an object . The t i rne was about I700

hours onMay 24, 1949. .The object was ref lect ing sunl i .ght whe,n observed

by naked""y. . However, he then looked at i t wi th B-power binoculars, at

which t i rne there was no glare. (Did glasses have f i l ter?) I t was of

rnetal l ic construct ion and was seen with good enough resolut ion to show

that the skin was dir ty. I t rnoved of f in hor izontal f l ight at a gradual ly in-

creasing rate of speed, unt i l i t seerned to approach the speed of a jet

before i t d isappeared. No propuls ion was apparent. Tirne of observat ion

w..1s Z- t f Z to 3 rninutes. "

-

Tt?

L aseA

Rough ond wrinkledin reor

Something equivolent

to o polch

ce oppeored dirtyond spotty in color

Smoother infronf

86

( /

Case XI (Ser ia l 1550.00)

On March ?O, 1950_l a Reserve Air Force Captain and an air l ines

Captain were f ly ing a cornrnercial a i r l ines f l ight . A, t ZL:.26, the air l ine

Captain directed the at tent ion of the Reserve Air Force Captain to an object

which apparent ly was f ly ing at h igh speed, approaching the air l iner f rorn

the south on a nol : th heading. The Reserve Air Force Captain focused his

at tent ion on the object . Both crew rnernbers watched i t as i t passed in f ront

of thern and went out of s ight to the r ight . The observat ion, which Iasted

about 25 to 35 seconds, occurred about I5 rni les north of a rnediurn-sized

ci ty. When the object passed in f ront of the air) . iner, i t was not rnore than

.t , f Z rnt te dlstant and at an al t i tude of about I000 feet higher than the air l iner.

The object appeared to be circular, wi th a diarneter of approxirnately

100 feet and with a vert ical height considerably less than the diarneter,

giv ing the object a disc- l ike shape. In the top center was a l ight which was

bl inking at an est i rnated 3 f lashes per second. , l !1" l ight wag, so br i l l iant

that i t would have been i rnpossible to look at i ! 9onl lnqously."had i .3 not been. _...:... .,"b i inking.

This l ight coutd'be' le in only when the object was approaching

and af ter i t had passed the air l iner. When the object passed in f ront of theobservers, the bottorn s ide was vis ib le. Ihe bottorn s ide appeared to have

9 to IZ syrnrnetr ical oval or c j . rcular portholes t rocated in a c i rc le approxi-rnately l /+ of the distance frorn the center to the outer edge. Through theseportholes carrre a sof t purple t ight about the shade of a i rcraf t f luorescentl ights. The object was travel ing in a straight l ine wi thout spinning.

" .Con-., s ider ing t le vis ibi l i ty, the length of t i rne the object was in sight, and the

=distance fryorn the object , the Reserve Air Force Captain est i rnates the-speed

to be in excess of l00O rnph

87

Ca,se- W

Portholes

.f6

Case XII (Ser ia l 3601.00)

At 0535 on the rnorning of August 25, L952, a rnusic ian for a radiostat ionwasdr iv ingtoworkf 'of f inot icedanobjecthover ing about l0 feet above a f ie ld near the road aLong which he wasdr iv ing. As he carne abreast of the object , he stopped his car and got outto watch. Having an art i f ic ia l leg, he could not leave the road, s ince thesurrounding terrain was rough. However, he was within about 100 yardsof i t at the point he was standing on the road. The object was not absolutelyst i l l , but seerned to rock s l ight ly as i t hovered. When he turned of f thernotor of h is car, he could hear a deep throbbing sound coming frorn theobject . As he got out of the c-ar, the object began a vert ical ascent wi th asound sirni lar torra large covey of quai l start ing to f ly at one t i rnert . Theobject ascended vert ical ly through broken clouds unt i l out of s ight . Hisview was not obscured by c louds. The observer states that the vegetat ionwas blown about by the object when i t was near the ground.

Descr ipt ion of the object is as fo l lows:

I t was about 75 feet long, 45 f .eeI wide, and l5 feet th ick, shaped l iketwo oval rneat plat ters placed together. I t was a dul l a lurninurn color, andhad a srnooth surface. A rnediurn$lue cont inuous l ight shone through theone window in the f ront sect ion. The head a

rnot ionless, facins the forward edqe of the obiect , were v is ib le. In the

rnidsect ion of the object were several windows extendingTft f f i - the top to therear edge of the object ; the rnidsect ion of the ship had a blue l ight which

gradual ly changed to di f ferent shades. There was a large arnount of act iv i ty

and rnovernent in the rnidsect ion that could not be ident i f ied as ei ther hurnan

or rnechanical , a l though i t d id not have a regular pattern of rnovernent.

There were no windows, doors or portholes, vents, searrrs, etc- , v is ib le

to the observer in the rear sect ion of the object or under the object (v iewed

at t i rne of ascent) . Another ident i f iable feature was a ser ies of prope. l lers

6 to l2 inches in diarneter spaced closely together along the outer edge of

the object . These propel lers were rnounted on a bracket so that they

revolved in a hor izontal p lane along the edge of the object . The propel lers

were revolv ing at a high rate of speed.

Inve s ion of the area soon af terward showed sorrre evidence of

vesetat ion beins blown around.----_taken indicated nothing unusual .

good.-f-

An exarninat ion of grass and soi l sarnples

Rel iabi l i ty of the observer was considered

B9

Approximorely75' long

Case, ffi

/etThese IZ s ight ings can be classed into four categor ies on the basis

their shapes, as fo l lows:

(1) Propel ler shape - Case I

(Z) Aircraf t shape - Cases I I and I I I

( : ) Cigar shape - Cases IV and V

(4) El l ipt ical or d isc shape - Cases VI to XII

The cr i ter ion for choosing the above sight ings was that their descr ip-t ions were given in enough detai l to perrni t diagrarns of the objects to bedrawn. I t rn ight be noted here that in al l but one of these cases (Case XI)the observer had already drawn a diagrarn of what he had seen.

The object ive of this sect ion of the study was the conceiving of arnodel , or rnodels. The requirernent that the descr ipt ion be detai led is anirnportant one, and was the easiest to deterrnine in the re-evaluat ion pro-grarrr . However, a good rnodel ought to sat isfy the fol lowing condit ions aswe l l :

( l ) The general shape of the object and the rnaneuvers i tperforrned should f i t the reports of rnany of the UNKNOWNSand thus explain therri.

(Z) The observer and the report should be rel iable.

(3) The report should contain elernents which should havebeen cbserved with accuracy, and which el i rn inate thepossibi l i ty that the s ight ing could be ascr ibed to afarni l iar object or to a known natural phenornenon.

of

(4) The rnodel should be derived frorn twoUNKNOWNS between which there is no

or rnore good

essent ia l conf l ic t .

I t can be shown that i t is not possible to deduce a rnodel f rorn the lZcases that wi l l sat isfy al l of these condi t ions. The fol lowing case-by-casediscussion of the l2 good UNKNOWNS wi l l i l lustrate th is point :

( l ) case I does not sat isfy condi t ions I and 4. The reportedshape of this object is not dupl icated in any of the otherUNKNOWNS -

(2) Case I I does not sat isfy Condi t ions I and 3. There arevery few UNKNOWNS in the aircraf t shape classi f icat ion.In addi t ion, the unusual character ist ic of th is s ight ing( i . . . , the red glow) could have been ref lect ion of thel ights of Fl int f rorn the objects i f they were ei ther birdsor aircraf t .

9 l

(6(3) Case I I I does not sat isfy Condi t ion l . I t a lso does not

sat isfy condit ion 4 when case I I is el i rninated as a

good UNKNOWN.

(4) Case IV does not sat isfy Condi t ions I or Z. There are

few cigar-shaped or rocket-shaped objects reported in

the l i terature. In addi t ion, th is observer is not con-

sidered to be wel l -qual i f ied technical ly '

(5) Case V does not sat isfy Condi t ion I . I t a lso does not

sat isfy condi t ion 4 when case IV is el i rn inated as a

good UNKNOWN.

(6) Case VI does not sat isfy Condi t ion Z. In the descr ipt ion'

of the object, i t was stated that at certain t i rnes there

was no l ight seen frorn the object. Apparent ly, thei lband of no l ight ' r , as diagrarnrned by the observer, was

an at ternpt to explain th is. However, i f the object were

constructed as shown in the diagrarn, l ight should have

been seen at a l l t i rnes. Because of th is conf l ic t the

drawing is not considered rel iable, and without the draw-

ing, there is not enough detai l in the descript ion to rnake

i t useful for th is studY.

(?) Case VII v io lates Condi t ions I and 4. Al though the shape

is disc- l ike, the rnaneuvers perforrned by the object are

unique both arnong the UNKNOWNS and arr long the good

UNKNOWNS.

cases vI I I to XII sat isfy Condi t ions I through 3, but they do not

sat isfy Condi t ion 4. The features which rnake thern di f ferent f rorn each

other are as fo l lows:

(8) Case VII I . The object is srnooth, wi th no protrusions

or other detai ls.

I t rnight be argued here that

have shapes simi lar to these good

that each of these f ive cases does

t ions.

(9) caseside

( I0) Case

rrrany of the UNKNOWNS rnight actually

UNKNOWNS. I t wi l l be noted, however,

not sat isfy one of the other three condi-

IX. The object had rocket or jet pods on each

that were shoot ing out f larnes.

X. The object had a f in or rudder.

( l I ) Case XI. The object had a ser ies of portholes, or

windows. on i ts under s ide.

9Z

&/"-.qt

i ts top and frontset of propel lers

/-b/

( lZ) Case XII . The object had windowsand i ts top rnidsect ion. I t a lso hadaround i ts waist .

1n

a

**-f:"*9el--P-e"-s's"i.hle*"*rh^s-&e"{or"ea-J.e"$-9.,5*fi"-e.""?--.-v-*if-i.-e..d-.m.,o-d"q1- 9J 3,. jlllying*_g9_R*-.c*n**J#"aar^th.",e_-_d".+l+"*t"h?"!"".h*y,e-.'been.ge,$_ef""_eA"tg.d_elg-. This point is 'irn:'

portant enough to ernphasize. Out of about 4,000 people who said they sawa !r f ly ing saucerrr , suf f ic ient ly detai led descr ipt ions were given in only I Zcases. Having cul led the crearn of the crop, i t is st i l l i rnpossible to developa picture of what a rr f ly ing saucerrr is .

In addit ion to this study of the good UNKNOWNS, an atternpt was rnadeto f ind groups of UNKNOWNS for which the observed character ist ics werethe sarne. No such groups were found.

On the basis of th is evidence, therefore, there is a low probabi l i tythat any of the UNKNOWNS represent qLs€ryaH"gItS*_e*{_""*gJeS"""*,"91*:*Xi"*Ssaucersrr . I t rnay be that sorne teports represent observat ions of not- .oneff i i*L" ' [ ' . i le.al c lasses of objects that rnight have been I ' f ly ing saucersrr;

, however, the lack of evidence to conf i r rn even one class would seern to rnake

.[ ^[ttV

this possibility rernote. jl5g"_i.::lS_g_."g.*.!._-tt''**1.F."9*T*e*e[Jb.,__"sgep,p*,eJ_F_-N_o.._w=1$F,.nIF 1

T .' .' *b-grsrg*-'-*$$99'?J"i-?,k*-.*np*grs*a. {","-Uy- "? e. "h.r*?"e*.r.e,.e-F.*"*"*x"".ei*t}e---.le*s+,.*.F*e..,.94jit$. -ggt-d*UNKN9-#*NS***u4-,.*"ur"fas'.".s,.9.*gj.e"-v,S..p-"".e-.,E.s-*"L*--q.".sd..r.s"""1.-b...e,"sJe"-s- q . sf " gf_ -"-aUNKNOWNS had i t not been possible to establ ish their ident i ty.

I +rS

nred"| j "n ' This is, of course, contrary to the bulk of the publ ic i ty that has been

' ' +4pi l - given to this problern. The reason for the nature of this publ ic i ty was

l i ln. ; ' - c lear ly brought out dur ing the re-evaluat ion study. I t is a def in i te fact thatdt f uPon reading a few reports, the reader becornes convinced that " f ly ing

saucersrrare real and are sotrre forrn of s in ister contr ivance. This react ionis independent of the t ra in ing of the reader or of h is at t i tude toward theproblern pr ior to the in i t ia l contact . I t is unfortunate that pract ical ly al l ofthe art ic les, books, and news stor ies deal ing wi th the phenornenon of therr f ly ing saucerrr were wr i t ten by rnen who were in th is category, that is ,rnen who had read only a few selected reports. This is accentuated by thefact that , as a rule, only the rnore lur id-sounding reports are c i ted in thesepublications - *[9-a.q;-t**gj"{gr.-lbrs---9€m**9-.-q*"p-g-ys,tr-gl9d.if.gtis.*."qs-t*.-y.-,"1e,,.bs-,"*g*qr**sgAx,lhs__ll*y.:_t9"*"o*.1_l._i!*.Lp*_p__o".::_1.9]_9.".-1h*"j' *_".J_"*e*hle.$_.e!*!"t'i:"_l_q**j..9-xe*".q-s:::-l:

are read, the feel ing thatI tsaucerst tare real fades, and is replaced by afeel ing of skept ic isrn regarding their existeuce. The reader eventual lyreaches a pg_int of satu-13j* |gt , af ter which the reports contain no new infor-rnation

"t "fi*""ild1;;;"6&"" of any intere"t. *LH.:.f*.gl_i"_+_g.gt;y^T-{_g_lly*,

universal arnong the per-s--q4rn,gl who worked on this r i io jei t , a.ra ib"f i " , i "* i fv

:*i;.;"itai"ed;-c";,-,,iioo;;i;;; on'ttJir:p;';r*t;;;i;t.i;il ';;it-:-::"--::^-*:' '

7I

4

]iIfIt

III!

I

r!lls;t,d@l

J The react ion, rnent ioned above, that af ter reading a few reports, theJ

f reader is convinced thatt t f ly ing saucersrrare real and are sorne forrn ofI

s in ister contr ivancer is very rnis leading. As rnore and rnore of the reports

93

/1/r<

CONC LUSIONS

It can never be absolutely proven that t t f ly ing saucersrrdo not exist .

This would be true i f the data obtained were to include cornplete scient i f ic

lneasurerr lents of the at t r ibutes of each sight ing, as wel l as cornplete and

detai led descr ipt ions of the objects s ighted. I t rn ight be possible to dernon-

strate the existence of " f ly ing saucersrrwi th data of th is type, IF they were

to exist .

Al though the reports considered in th is study usual ly did not contain

scient i f ic rneasurernents of the at t r ibutes of each sight ing, i t was possible

to establ ish certain val id conclusions by the appl icat ion of stat ist ical

rnethods in the t reatrnent of the data. Scient i f ical ly evaluated and arranged,

the data as a whole did not show any rnarked patterns or t rends. The in-

accuracies inherent in th is type of data. in addi t ion to the incornpleteness of

a large proport ion of the reportsr may have obscured any patterns or t rends

that otherwise would have been evident. This absence of indicat ive relat ion-

ships necessi tated an exhaust ive study of selected facets of the data in order

to draw any val id conclusions.

A cr i t ical exarninat ion of the distr ibut ions of the i rnportant char-

acter ist ics of s ight ings, p lus an intensive study of the s ight ings evaluated

as UNKNOWN, Ied to the conclusion that a cornbinat ion of factors, pr in-

c ipal ty the reported rnaneuvelrs of the objects and the unavai labi l i ty of

supplernental data such as aircraf t f l ight p lans or bal loon- launching records,

resul ted in the fa i lure to ident i fy as KNOWNS rnost of the reports of objects

classi f ied as UNKNOWNS.

An intensive study, ai rned at f inding a ver i f ied exarnple of arr f ly ing

saucer l ' or at der iv ing a ver i f ied rnodel or rnodels of ' t f ly ing saucers" (as

def ined on Page l ) , led to the conclusion that nei ther goal could be at ta ined

using the present data.

I t is ernphasized that there was a cornplete lack of any val id evidence

consist ing of physical rnat ter in any case of a reported unident i f ied aer ia l

object .

Thus, the probabi l i ty that any of the UNKNOWNS considered in th is

study are ' t f ly ing saucersrr is concluded to be extrernely srnal l , s ince the

rnost cornplete and rel iable reports f rorn the present data, when isolated

and studied, conclusively fa i led to reveal even a rough rnodel , and since

the data as a whole fa i led to reveal any rnarked patterns or t rends.

Therefore, on the basis of th is evaluat ion of the inforrnat ion, i t is

considered to be highly i rnprobable that any of the reports of unident i f ied

aer ia l objects exarnined in th is study represent observat ions of technologi-

cal developrnents outside the range of present-day scient i f ic knowledge.

94

APPENDIX A

TABULATIONS OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGEDISTRIBUTIONS BY CHARACTERISTICS

INDEX OF TABLES

Page

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings by Years 107

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Years 107

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Years 108

Evaluat ion of A11 Sight ings by Month of Year, Al l Years ' 109

69

Table A I .

Table AZ.

Table A3.

Table A4.

Table A5,

Table A6.

Table A7,

Table A8,

Table .A9.

Table AI0.

Table A I I .

Table AlZ.

Table AI3.

Table A 14,

Table AI5.

Table A16.

Table Al?.

Table Al8.

Table AI9.

Table A20.

Table A2I.

Table AZ2.

Table A23.

Table A24.

Table A25.

Table A26.

Table 427.

Table A28.

Table A29.

Table A30.

Table A3I.

Table 432,

Table A33.

Evaluat ion of Al1 Sight ings by Month of Yeat, L947

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings by Month of Year, 1948

Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of. Y ear, L949

Evaluat ion o{ At l Sight ings by Month of Year, I950

Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings by Month of Year ' I95l

Evaluation of All Sightings by Mouth of \ ear, L .45?

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month ol Year, All Yeals

Evaluatim of Unit Sightings by Month of. Year, L947 .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Month oI Year, 1948 .

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Y eat , 1949 .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Month of Year, I950 .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Month of Year ' I95l .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Month of Year, 1952

II I

Lrz

II3

t t4

l l5

r l6

I I7

I l8

r l9

LZ0

tzl

tz2

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Month of Year, Al l Years tz3

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Month of Year, I94? lZ4

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Month of Year, 1948 lZ5

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Month of Year, 1949 126

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Month of Year; 1950 lZ7

Evaluat i .on of Object Sight ings by Month of Year, l95l tz8

Evaluat ion o{ Object Sight ings by Month ol ' {ear, L95Z LZg

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty GrouPs' A1I Years I30

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings by Sight i .ng Rel iabi l i ty Groups, 1947 130

Evaluat ion of A1I Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty GrouPs' 1948 130

Evaluat ion o{ Al l Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups, 1949 I30

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups, 1950 . l3 l

Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups, 1951 l3 l

Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups, 1952 . l3 l

Evaluat ion oI Uni t Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups, Al l Years . 132

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups, 1947 . l3Z

95 and 96 97

7o

Table A34.

Table A35.

Table A36.

Table A3?.

Table A38.

Table A39.

Table A40.

Table A4l .

Table A42,

Table A43.

Table A44.

Table A45.

Table A46.

Table A47.

INDEX OF TABLES(Continued)

Page

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliabil ity Groups, 1948 . I3Z

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliabil ity Groupe, 1949 . L3Z

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliabil ity Groups, 1950 . 133

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Retiabil ity Groupe, l95l . 133

Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliabil ity Groupsr 1952 . 133

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Rcliabil ity Groups, All Years 134

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliabil ity Groupsr 194? . 134

Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliabil ity Groups, 1948 . 134



Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Grougs, l95I . 135

Evaluat ion of Object Sigbt ings by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groupa, 1952 . 135

Evaluatioo of AII Sightings for AII Years by Sighting Reliabil ity Groups,

Mi l i tary Observers 136

Evaluation of A11 Sightings for AII Years by Sighting Reliabil ity Groupir,

Civ i l iau Observers

Table A48. Evaluation of All SightiMi l i tary Observers

Table A49. Evaluat ion of AI I Sight iCiv i l ian Observers

I JO

r36:r".t": ' :ot.or.tt:o.':r.*":*:"t:" : '":n:' .

ngs for 194? by Sigbting Reliabil ity Groups,

Table A50. Evaluat iou of AI I Sight ings for 1948 by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups,Mi l i tary Observers

Table A5l . Evaluation of All Sightings for 1948 by Sighting Reliabil ity Groups,Civi l ian Observers

Table A52. Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings tot L949 by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups,Mi l i tary Observers

Table A53. Evaluation of All Sightings for 1949 by Sighting Reliabil ity Groups,Civi l ian Observers

Table A54. Evaluation of All Sigtrtings for I950 by Sighting Reliabil ity croups,Mit i tary Observers

Table A55. Evaluation of A1l Sightings for 1950 by Sighting Reliabil ity Groups,Civi l ian Observers

Table A56. Evaluat ion o{ AII Sight ings for 195l by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups,Mi l i tary Observers

Table A5?. Evaluation of AII Sightings for l95l by Sighting Reliabil ity croups,Civi l ian Observers

Table A58. Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for l95Z by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups,Mi l i tary Observers

I3?

t37

138

138

139

98

Tabte A59.

Table A60.

Table A6l .

Table A52.

Table A63.

Table A54.

Table A55.

Table 4 '66.

Table A67.

Table A68.

Table A59.

Table A?0.

Table A7l .

Table A72.

Table A73.

Table A74.

Table A75.

Table A76.

Table A77.

Table A78.

Table 'A79.

Table A80.

Table A8l .

Table A8Z.

TNDEX OF. TABLES(Cont inued)

Evaluat ion of A11 Sight ings for 1952 by Sight ing Rel iabi l i ty Groups,Civi l ian Observers

Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, Al l Sight ings

Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, Uni t Sight ings

Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, Object Sight ings

Evaluat ion of Al i Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported

ALl Years . .

140

140

t41

L42

Evaluat ion oI Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported . .

Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings foq Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,One Object

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Two Objects . .

Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Three to Ten Objects . .

Evaluat ion of A1I Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Eleven or More Objects .

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Number of Objects Not Stated . .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,One Object

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Two Objects . .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Three to Ten Objects . .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Eleven or More Objects . .

Evaluat ion of .Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Number of Objects Not Stated . .

Evaluat ion of object s ight ings for AII years by Number of objects per s ight ing,One Object

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sightrng,Two Objects . .

'Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al1 Years by Number of Objects per Sightrng,Three to Ten Objects . .

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l years by Number of Objects per Sightrng,Eleven or More Qbjects . .

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l years by Number of Objects per Sight ing,Number o( Objects Not Stated . .

143

t44

144

145

145

t46

147

t5z

153

141

I48

t48

t49

150

Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting,

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings by Durat ion o{ Sight ing, r947 t53

99

1 l

Page

I ao

140

7L

Table A83.

Table A84.

Table A85,

Table .A'86.

Table A8?,

Table A88.

Table A89.

Table A90.

Table A9l .

Table 492.

Table A93.

Table A94.

Table A'95.

Table , {96.

Table A97.

Table A98.

Table A99.

Table A I 00.

Table AI0l .

Table Ai02.

Table AI03.

INDEX OF TABLES(C ontinued)

Evaluat ion of Al1 Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, 1948

Evaluat ion of AI I Sight lngs by Durat ion of Sight ing, 1949

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, l95I

Evaluat ion of AI t Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, I95Z

Page

t54

t54

I55

r55

rto

t57

r59

t59

r50

l6l

161

Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings by Durat ion o{ Sight ing' I950

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Durat ion of SiSht ing' Al l Years

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, Ig47 ' L57

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight lngs by Durat ion of Sight ing, Ig48 ' 158

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, 1949 ' I58

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, f950

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing' I95I

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing' I952 '

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing' Al l Years ' '

Evaluat ion o{ Object Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, 194?

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, 1948 f6Z

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, 1949 16Z

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Dur.at ion of Sight ing' 1950 lb J

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ings' I95l

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings by Durat ion of Sight ing, I952

Evaluat ion of A11 Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

o{ Year, Five Seconds or Less . .

Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

168

163

154

o{ Year, Six to Ten Seconds . .

Table dl04. Evaluat ion of A11 Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing {or Months

of Year, Eleven to Tbi . r tY Seconds .

Table AI05. Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for AII Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

of Year, Thir ty One to Sixty Seconds

Table AtO5. Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for AII Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

of Year, Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes . .

Table A10?. Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for AII Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

of Year, Six to Thir ty Minutes

Table A108. Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

of Year, Over Thir ty Minutes

Table A109. Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

of Year, Durat ion Not Stated . .

167

169

t70

t72

r00

-l

ItI

175

Table Al l3, Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion bf Sight ing for Monthso{ Year, Thir ty One to Six iy Seconds

Table Al14, Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Monthsof Year, Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes . ,

Table AI l5. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Monthsof Year, Six to Thir ty Minutes

Table AII6. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Monthsof Year, Over Thir ty Minutes

Table Al l7. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Monthsof Year, Durat ion Not Stated . .

Table Al18. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for A11 Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Monthsof Year, Five Seconds or Less

Table Al l9. Evaluat ion o{ Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing {or Mouthsof Year. Six to Ten Seconds . .

178

Tabte A120. Evaluat ionof Year,

Table AlZl . Evaluat ionof Year,

Table A122. Evaluat ion

of Year,

Tabie A123. Evaluat ionof Year,

Table AlZ6.

Table AlZ7.

Table A128.

Table AlZ9.

Table A I 30.

Table Al3I ,

Table A132.

of Object Sight ings for A11 Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

Eleven to Tbir ty Seconds .

L8Z

I83

184

186

lo a

r88

189

r89

r90

Table AI24. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

of Year, Over Thir ty Minutes

Table Al25, Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ioo of Sight ing for Months

of Year, Durat ion Not Stated . .

of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Montbs

Thir ty One to Sixty Seconds

of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Durat ioo of Sight ing for Months

Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes . .

of Object Sightings for A11 Years by Duration of Sighting for Months

Six to Thir ty Minutes

Evaluation of All Sightings for A1l Years by Shape o{ Qbject, Ell iptical

Evaluation of AII Sightings for A11 Years by Shape of Object' Rocket and Aircra{t

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for AII Years by Shape of Object ' Meteor or Comet

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for AII Years by Shape of Object ' Lent icular, Conical ,

or Teardrop

Evaluation of A1l Sightings for A11 Years by Shape of Object, Flame

Evaluation of AII Sightings for AII Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes

Evaluat ion of A11 Sight ings for Al l Years by Shape of Object , Shape Not Stated

190

l9l

L9Z

t9l

-73

l?9

INDEX OF TABLES(C ontinued)

j less

i fable Al I0. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years, by Durat ion of Sight ing for Monthsof Year, Five Seconds or Less . . L73

Table Al l I . Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings {or Al1 Years by Durat ion of Sight i r \g {or Months: of Year, Six to Ten Seconds 174

Table Al IZ. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al lo{ Year, Eleven to Thir ty Seconds

Years by Durat ion of Sight ing for Months

l0I

7+Table A133.

Table A I 34.

Table A135.

Tabte A136.

Table A137.

Table A I 38.

' r 'able 4139.

Table A140.

Table A14l .

Table A 142.

Table A I43.

Table A 144.

Tabie AI45.

Table A 146.

Table A I47.

Table A148.

INDEX OF TABLES(G ontinued)

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Shape of Object , El l ipt ical - .

I

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Shape of Object , Rocket and Aircraf t

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Shape of Object , Meteor or Comet

Evaluat ion of Uai t Sight ings for AI l Years by Shape of Object ' Lent icular,

Conical , or Teardrop

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al1 Years by Shape of Object , Flame .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Shape of Object ' Other Shapes. .

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Shape of Object , Shape Not Stated

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for A11 Years by Shape of Object , El l iPt ical . .

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Shape of Object , Rocket and Aircraf t

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Shape of Object , Meteor or Comet

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for A11 Years by Shape of Object , Lent icular '

Conical , or Teardrop

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Shape of Object , Flame

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for AII Years by Shape of Object , Other Shapes

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for AII Years by Shape of Object , Shape Not Stated

Evaluat ion of A11 Sight ings for Al l Years by Reported speeds of objects, stat ionary , .

Evaluat ion of AI I Sight i r igs for AII Years by RePorted Speeds of Objectsr Less

Page

193

lqa

t94

L"

to(

195

I97

r97

198

r98

r99

r99

200

z0l

z0l

zoz

zoz

203

203

204

zo4

zo5

zo5

206

206

Than One Hundred Mi les Per Hour .

Tabte A149. Evaluat ion of Al l s ight ings for A11 Years by Reported speeds of Qbjects, one

Hundred to Four Hundred Mi les per Hour

TabIe A150. Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings for AII Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over

Four Hundred Mi les per Hour

Table AI5I . Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings for AII Years by Reported Speeds of Objects '

Meteor-Like Speeds .

Table A152. Evaluat ion of AI I s ight ings Ior AII Years by RePorted speeds of objects '

Speed Not Stated .

Table AI53, Evaluat ion of uni t s ight ings for Al l Years by Reported speeds of objects, stat ionary. .

Table A154. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Reported Speede of Objects, Less Than

One Hundred Mi les per Hour .

Table AI55. Evaluat ion of uni t s ight ings for AI l Years by Reported speeds of objects, one Hundred

to Four Hundred Mi les Per Hour

Table AI55. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for A11

Four Hundred Mi les Per Hour

Table Al5?. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sigtr t ings for Al l

Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over

Years by RePorted Speeds of Objectst

Meteor-Like Speeds .

Table AI58. Evaluat ion of Uui t Sight ings {or Al l Years

Speed Not Stated .

by Reported Speeds of Objects,

roz

Four Hundred Mi les per Hour.

Table AI63. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by RePorted Speeds of Objects '

Meteor-Like Speeds ,

Table AI64. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for AII Years by RePorted Speeds of Objects '

Speed Not Stated .

Table A159.

Table A160.

Table AI6l ,

Table AI62.

Table A165.

Table AI66.

Table A I6?.

Table A168.

Table AI69.

Table AI?0.

Table Al?I .

Table Al?2.

Table AI73.

Table A I74.

Table Al?5.

Table A176.

Table Al?7.

INDEX OF TABLES(Continued)

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings Ior AII Years by Reported Speeds of Objects ' Stat ionary

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for A11 Years by Reported Speeds of Objects ' Less

Than One Hundred Mi les Per Hour .

Elevat ion of Object Sight ings {or Al} Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, One.

Hundred to Four Hundred Mi les per Hour.

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for AII Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for Al l Years by Light Br ightness.

Evaluat ion o{ Uni t Sight ings for AI l Years by Light Br ightness

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Light Br ightness

Locat ion of Observers Dur ing Sight ing by Months fo! AU Sight ings, AII Years .

Locat ion of Observers Dur ing Sight ing by Months for A11 Sight ings, 1947

Locat ion of Observers Dur ing Sight ing by Monttrs for AI I Sight ings, 1948

Locat ion of Observers Dur ing Sight ing by Months {or AII Sight ings' 1949

Locat ion of Observers Dur ing Sight ing by Months for Al l Sight ings' 1950

Locat ion o{ Observer Dur ing Sight ing by Months for AII Sight ings, 195l .

Locat ion of Observers Dur ing Sight ing by Months for At l Sight ings' I95Z

Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings for A11 Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, White or Glowing Wbite Objects . .

Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Metal l ic Obje. ts . . ; .

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors RePorted for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Object Color Not Stated

Table A178. Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for AII Years

oI Sight ing, Orange or.Glowing Orange

Table AI?9. Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings for AII Years

Table A183. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by

of Sight ing, White or Glowing White Objects

by Colors RePorted for Durat ion

Objects . . ZZI

by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sightingr Red or Glowing Red Objects . .

Table A I80, Evaluat ion of A1l Sight ings for AII Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

o{ Sight ing, Green or Glowing Green Objects

Table Al8l . Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

oI Sight ing, Yel low or Glowing Yel low Objects .

Table A182. Evaluat ion of .Al l Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Objects of Other Colors

7S

Page

zo'7

zo7

208

208

zo9

209

2I0

zt l

zrz

zr3

zl,4

zI5

zr6

zt7

zLa

7lq

zzo

zz0

zzl

zzz

zzz

z23

zz3

Colors Reported for Durat ion

' zz4

103

"76TNDEX OF TABLES

(Cont inued)

Table AI84. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

Page

of Sight ing, Metal l ic Objects . . ZZ4

Table AI85. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors RePo!ted for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Object Color Not Stated zz5

Table A186. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Orange or Glowing Oraoge Objects . .

Table A18?. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings {or Al l Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Red or Glowing Red Objects .

Table AI88. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Green or Glowing Green Objects

Table A189. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Ye11ow or Glowing Yel low Objects .

Table A190. Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for A11 Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion


Table A19I. Evaluat i .on of Object Sight ings for AII Years by Golo!s Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, White or Glowing White Objects . .

Table AI9Z. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ing. for AI I Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Metal l ic Objects . .

Table A193. Evaluat ion oI Object Sight ings for AI l Years by Colors RePorted for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Object Color Not Stated

Table A194. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for AII Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight i .ngr Qrange or Glowing Orange Objects . .

Table A195, Eyaluat ion oI Object Sight ings {or A1l Years by Colors RePorted for Durat ion

of Sight ing' Red or Glowing Red Objects . .

TabIe A196. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, Gyeen or Glowing Green Objects. .

Table AI97. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Colors Reported for Durat ion

of Sight ing, YeIIow or Glowing Yel low Objects .

Table AI98. Evaluat ion of object s ight ings for Al l Years by colors Reported for Durat ion


Tabte AI99, Evaluat ion of Al l s ight ings for Al l Years by Number of objects per s ight ing

for Durat ion o{ Sight ingr One Object

Table A200. Evaluat ion of Al l s ight ings for Al l Years by Number of objects Per s ight ing

for Durat ion of Sight ing, Two Objects . .

Table AZ0l. Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects Per Sight ing

for Durat ion of Sight ing, Three to Ten Objects . .

Table A202. Evaluat ion of AI I Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of objects Per s ight ing

for Durat ion of SiSht ing, Eleven or More Objects . .

TabIe A203. Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects Per Sight ing

for Durat ion of Sight ing, Number of Objects Not Stated .

Table A204. Evaluat ion of uni t s ight ings for A11 Years by Number of objects per s ight ing

for Durat ion of Sight ing, Oue Object

Table A205. Evaluat ion of Uni t Srght ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects Per Sight ing

for Durat ion of Sight ing, Two Objects .

zz5

zz7

zz8

zz7

zz8

))a

?2q

230

230

23r

23t

z3z

z3z

233

233

234

235

235

104

Table A206.

Table A20?.

Table A208.

Table A209.

Table A,210.

Table AZII .

Table AZIZ.

Table AZ I3.

Table A214.

Table A2I 5.

Table AZI6.

Table AZ l7.

Table AZI8.

Table A219.

Table A220.

Table AZZI.

Ta6le AZ?2.

Table 4,223.

Table 4,224.

Table A?25.

Table A226.

Table L227.

Table 4,228.

Table A229.

Table A230.

Table A23I.

" ta6le AZ3Z.

INDEX OF TABLES(Cont inued)

Page

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ing{or Durat ion o{ Sight ing, Three to Ten Objects , . 236

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ingfor Durat iou of Sight ing, Eleven or More Objects . . 236

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ingfor Durat ion of Sight ing, Number of Objects Not Stated . . 237

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ingfor Durat ion of Sight ing, One Object 238

I

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for AII Years by Number of Objects per Sight ingfor Durat ion of Sight ing, Two Objects . , 238

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ingfor Durat ion of Sight ing, Three to Ten Objects . . 239

Evaluat ion o{ Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ingfor Durat ion ol Sight ing, Eleven or More Objects . . 239

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Number of Objects per Sight ingfor Durat ion of Sight ing, Number of Objects Not Stated . . Z4O

77

24L

24l

z4z

243

243

244

245

246

247

248

248

248

249

249

249

250

250

250

25l

Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings for Al l Years by Geographic Locat ion

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings for Al l Years by Geographic Locat ion . .

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings for Al l Years by Geographic Locat ion . .

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings for AII Years by Nortb American Locat ion,

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by North American Location

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings Ior Al l Years by North American Locat ion

Evaluation o{ All Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location

Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location

EvalEtion of Object Sightings for All Yearg by United States Regional Location

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings in t t re Strategic Areas of the Central East Region

Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region .

Evaluat ion of AU Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region .

Evaluat ion of A1I Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region . .

Evaluat ion of Al l Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region

Evaluat ion of A1l Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region .

Evaluation o{ Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region '

Evaluat ion-o{ Uni t Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the Central . Midwest Region

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region ,

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings io the Strategic Areas of t t re South Midwest Region

105

1B

Table A233.

Table , {234.

Table A235.

Table A235.

Table A23?.

INDEX OF TABLES(Gout inued)

Evaluat ion of Uni t Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region

Evaluat ion of uni t s ight ings in the strategic Areas of the south Farwest Region

Evaluat ion of object s ight ings in the strategi .c Areas of the central East Region

Evaluat ion of object s ight ings in tbe strategic Areas of the central Midwest Regi .on

Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region

Pa ge

z5l

25l

z5z

252

z5z

Table A238. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region

Table A239. Evaluat ion of Qbject Sight ings in the Strategic A!eas of the South West Region .

Table A240. Evaluat ion of Object Sight ings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region .

253

z6i

253

7g

Pdlloirtrr

4,,

C6l

EI

y'LJ ./€t?< /9y'7 / rr'( /Q:.Q

Enlda.h!! Ps Crl Itd.r Pr Cat Itid Pd Cal lumbt Pd Crl

)da. TfrI nn Id trl W IU hm tou ;mn w0n DouUn ToU :ffi. buto

.BJld ?rq t t t /t/1 q ,,2 ND 12 /q ?t t4 /1a //7 '3 /-I

,llt l l t t l t t tnA ,<t /9 44 tt ?t ,71 2t t7 5t / t1 /4.L t4f ?4 to ??. t 1L2/2.'l-^irdl ? t74 //.1 ?.2 ,t.t r'- 2 , t 42 /t 4 /, q< 2/" 't L / t /2 2'

FU|ltnrd. 12 2l <2 n9 4t t . / t/t 4t t , t 2t /) t , t , t ,.tliib ,e 23 t5 /).t] ,4 /) o /) ,f tn ,A 2 t r ' ,o 2 3 t. t 44

'Clrdt, lllt ae /o nt t,.t o.t 2 t /) t.t t.a nt D 2t a, t . t t a , , / n

/4t;lolfic h. alLt 2L/ D1 t.D tAz t IL /rt tn /r.1 a |, f o .o ?? /) ?tl /4 tnrPvtblodcl .a 45 t1 174 t.t ? 2 r ?/ , / t2 2 ,7 to 2a t o ? /. t t / ){lbr 49t 4?7 tel 1' .41 24 t 2t 24t to 4//, ta t, D5 ?? 2? /42{}L ?,1 t2 a1 n u1 /t f) lL1 t 4 2/- ( 42 b o L 2.5 /rt

Yd ,7 ,44 7t I 29.1 tm. t( tt 91 (y'r /t.4 'oo c9 E tEl la4 ?<? tm /4t 9/- r'aL F' 4a2 I toD

/lsa /ts,/ /tt?,

Ei|-E Pr Cdl E' P€ Cal ]hc Pd C6t t5.i I P! Cd

m tu il m tor Toti

lrh 22 5 ,t A1 t .4 ttt ) t 3 t2 t t 2.2 (t /z< t?o 1t4 1L v5 17tLldldrJ //4. t? It , t l fL ,1 th ?1 /t1 2 4t4 424 /D, ?.1t /2t t? n4

!{isi ?z /r/ I t . t tct /z t ,e / t t t.t n4 y'/ ltt 40t t t1 l /6 l r9

'LiflPt- o n , , l t t /6 / .7 ?.2 4a t0'E.lt /) a o 2Z It ltl t t t t / 5 0.6 r1 -9 111

{|..qH,tt 2 o a) , . ,t n.z 2 2 a'L

/7D a1. /t 7 ,t , t lr4'L;H[eI. 2Z o 2a /2t t t l t1 t /tJ t l t / t2 ,14 o /80 tr, ,o 92

.Fla.a 2 2 lL td . ra td 2 ,7 2t /./ ?L z at t6 , . t / .s

.uh 42 2 4t //1 / 2D ,t1 at at 31 ?11 1a ,47 ?1/4 ,2t to tt ,

IF I 5 4t t . / 13 ? a ? <t ,/) <3 tt /b t I 2b tg ?t

T-l frt tt ed, 1/t /11 'dr. ta4 t - , tr7 tt4 t-:t 4ttr i l7 at. t ta.

I07

8offi batetr statt

108

' l

Exhibi t B I .

Exhibi t BZ.

Exhibi t I }3.

Exhibi t 84.

E., ; i r ib i t 85.

Exhibi t 86.

Exhibi t 87.

Exhibi t 88.

INDEX OF FORMS

Tentat ive Observers Data Sheet

Tentat ive Obse rvers Quest ionnaire

U. S. Air Force Technical Inforrnat ion Sheet

Codes for Work Sheet

Work Sheet

Codes for Card Bible.

Card Bible

Exarnpl.e of an IBM Card

Page

259

267

277

z89

297

301

309

313

257 and 258

8L

copE 6? nANr EQurvArp{!

X Offlcer XYY0 Lt. 2nd 0I Lt. lst 12 Capt. 23 MaJ. 3L Lt . Co}, l ,5 Col . 56 Brlg. Gen. 67 MaJ. Gen. 78 Lt. Gen. I9 General 9

CODE ?6 EI/AIUATION OF OBSER\TER RELIABIIITY

PrlvatePrlvateo let Cls.Corp.Serg.S. T. Serg.M. Serg.tlarrant Off.Chlef Warrant

ConpleteSrlteFalrDorbtfirlPoorNot

Canrt be Judged

xI012?l+567I9

coLE ?? Er/AruATroN 0F REBORT RELTABTLITY CoDE ?B pREtIMINAnv IDEMIFICATI9U

xY0I23l+56n

I

89

CompleteQulteFatrDoubtfulPoorNot

Canrt be Judged

X Posslbtr"yY0 BalloonI Astrononleal2 Aircraft3 Light phenonenonI Blrds5 Clouds, dust, ete.6 Rocket or rolsslle7 Psychological nanlfestatlonsI El.ectromagnetlc phenonenon9 0ther

CODE ?9-80 FINAL IDEIYIIFICATION

Probably

BalloonAstrononlcalAircrafttlght PhenomenonBlrdsClouds, dust, etc.Reeket-er-n*ee*1e Insuff lctent inforaatlonPsychological nanife statlonsEleetrenegnet*e-pbeneEeRen Unknown0ther

xYoI23t,567I9

295 and 296

t3

Variable

Zeto, V ' constantfncreasing slowlYDecreasing slow1YIncreasing fastDecreasing fastIncreasing verY fastDecreasing verY fast

coDE 69 DrsifPErENqE BE48SS

x Disappearedtit$3*fttt{0N ssRqrc6

IHT.t"h?:illT'';; D ivis ion::. ; :* tFF:. : ' : : t ' ' ' ; ' - " ; the Air Foro'

.?t^t^if' ',i l '..lo n:' 45th street

,fi3i X"'o;tt' New Yo'k

5 srd6w?NWIIJ

Vasi"able

+gCIo t0 6,00+ii00 to 30c"i rtilo "t.ll -!.ce.u,iO b i;o e,')C:Jr)e i;o -1"0o-L0s tc -30s*30$ io -600-6os to -9oo

OODE ?2 OBJHCT ONffi1{TATIO}'IApparent. i.nei-ination sf prineipa3"--Iiis-of

oUiggt'grorn lrorizontai eoDE ?3 *lJtl'IEmIERS e0DE ?[* 0B$i;riVFlfi' 90CUPATIOU-:- "-- ' - i .1. .

Civil-:lan r'.1*';'*Pation rsb statedianaYp 'nil"i ':*,tYNav3l', rra,l-1",r,4,rYPl*"ri;:lc', 1., ;l, '...{;;+.T"YAir ta:r"cee .,iiiiitas3'$o asrL stl'&*ru;r writrl-tanYStersbranb mi*rine, militarYCIornnrereial air, eivil1anCAlrr civiJ.lanGovernnont contractor, clvilinnCivillan, other

CODE 6? AhIGUfuA ACCETERATION(Change in angular velocitY) COD!] 68 APPEARIJ'ICE BEARINC

CODE ?0.71 ELEVATIONIlirTH RESPECT TO oRoUND' DIGREES

Initlal

xYONlNE2E3SEl+s5s} l6l . ;7 N!'lIY

xT0I4L

?

l+

57I

xYUI4I.t

I.+

{

vA

.L

012

ll

"?!

f,

Variable

0-9r0-1920-2930-39ho-l+950-5e6o-697a-798c-89

Variable

0-g10-r.920-293a-39h0-l+95a-5960-697a-?980*Ep

vE

fl,

I

4:"

JI '

oU

I

Y1r

I

.,4,

1l ,

Ia

KY,t1

3T'

5tt*

{II

307

l i

DE 75 EVALU,.TIOII OF OB@ CODE 76 EVAI,UATION OF RT^PORT RELIABILITY

xT0123l+567B9

xY

tI

3L

67B

CompleteQuiteFairDoubtfulPoorNot

Cannot be judged

CornpleteQuiteFairDoubtfulPoorNot

Cannot be judged

CODE 7? RELIABITITY GROUP CTASSIFICJ.TION(Based on observer and .report ratings)

Excellent (Observer O or I and Reoort 0 or 1)Good (Observer 0 or 1, Report 22 3t or l+;

Observer 2, 31 or lr, Report 0 or 11 Observer2, Report 2)

OouUtfui (Observer 0 or I, Report 5 or 9iObserver 2, Report 3, b, 5t or 91 Observer

3 or lre Report 2, ), \ t 5, or.9; Observer 5ot 9, Report 0, 1, 2t 3t or I+)

poo" (our""tut 5', 9', or fr 'Report 5, 9, or I)

copE 38 FIlrAr rpENrrTrcATIoN

X ProbablyY0 Balloon1 Astronomieal2 Aircraft3 Light phenomenonL Birds5 Clouds, dust, etc.6 Insufficlent lnfornatlonf Psychological manifestationsB Unknown! Other

3C6

FV

Hr

(Wot tor general dtstr lbutlon)

DEPAXTI'IENT OF DEFENSE

MIMJTES OF PBESS CONFENENCE EEI,D BY

I\{AJOB GENEBAL JCHN A. SAlvlFORD

DISECTCn 0F IMELLTGENCn, U. S. Am FoRCE

29 July I9r2 - 4:00 p. n. - Room 3E-859, The Pentergon

Parttclpattng: lviaJor Gencral Roger M. RaneyDlrector of Cperatlons, IJSAF

Colonel ,Donald. L. Bower, Technlcal AnalystsDrvtsion, Alr Technlcal Intcl l igunce Center

gap'talo R,cy L. James, Eleetronics Rranch,Alr Tecr-,nl .enl Inte1l l$ence Center

Captaln Edwa,rd. J. F.uppclt, Aerl;r.I PhenomenonBranch, Air Tech-n1ca1 Intelllgence Center

l'{r. Fu::goyne L. Gr1-ffir'.9, Electronlcs Branch,A1r Tecnnlcrl In'telll-Rcnce Center

ilB. SCHQOLEY: Ladles and. gentlenen, let me renlndthe mllttarf t'h.r.it, whlle they arc welcome h.ere, thls 1s apresg confer*nce r.r.rd. letrs be sure that tbe press ls aIlseated before the coir ference beglns.

Let me lntrcduce General Samford, Alr Foree Dlrectorof intell-tgenco, nnd General Raney, D!.rcctor of Operatlons.Oenerc,l Sntnford.

MA,IC8 CENmAt $Al'lFCRDl f tbhk the plan ls to havevery bflef, opentng renerks and, then r,sk for such questlons asyou ufry vant to put to w for dlseusslon nnd &ns$rer, In sofor as openlir,g ren0,rks ls coneernetl, I Just nant to str:,te ourfecrson for conoern about th1s.

The Alr Force f,eels a very d.eflntte obllgatlon totdentlfy and anaiyze thtngs that hoppen 1n the alr tbat mrybsve ln them nen::,ce to the Unlteti State.g and., because of thatfeellng of obllgatlon ona our. pursult of that lnterest, sinccL947 , we have an activtty thri.t was lcrown one timp as proJectSaueer ond now, &$ irart of anothcr trore stable and lntegrated.organlzrtlon, bnve urdertaken to analyze betveen a thousand.

I f interested in gett ing a fu i lcopy of th is 39-page documenttsee inslde front cover of book.

.fu'

Ramsey-\Wallace CorporationPUBLISHERS

A8 WEST MAIN STREETRAMSEY' NEW .JERSEY

07446

$4.OO PER COPY

Prinfed in rhe U.S.A. bv The Ronrsey Pr int Shoppe

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