Flood the Sugar Cane Farms Now to Flood the Sugar Cane Farms Now to Save the Estuaries: Is This Feasible ?Save the Estuaries: Is This Feasible ?

Water Resources Advisory CommissionJanuary 5, 2006 Meeting

Flood the Sugar Cane Farms Now to Save Flood the Sugar Cane Farms Now to Save the Estuaries: Is This Feasible ?the Estuaries: Is This Feasible ?

Numerous IssuesNumerous Issues Water quantity and qualityWater quantity and quality Socio-economic consequencesSocio-economic consequences Financial, legal and engineering Financial, legal and engineering

questionsquestions

Do Benefits outweigh Costs?Do Benefits outweigh Costs? Will it help the Lake, the Estuaries or Will it help the Lake, the Estuaries or

the Everglades ?the Everglades ? What will it cost ?What will it cost ?

A key component of the CERP is “more storage”A key component of the CERP is “more storage” Governor’s Commission for a Sustainable South Florida Governor’s Commission for a Sustainable South Florida

(1996)(1996) C&SF Project Restudy (1999)C&SF Project Restudy (1999)

Storage in the EAA has been extensively analyzedStorage in the EAA has been extensively analyzed Reservoir sizes determined in the RestudyReservoir sizes determined in the Restudy based on multiple performance and cost considerationsbased on multiple performance and cost considerations not as simple as “more is better”not as simple as “more is better”

15 years of Progress on Everglades water quantity 15 years of Progress on Everglades water quantity and quality.and quality.

Previous Studies of Storage in the EAAPrevious Studies of Storage in the EAA

Previous Studies of Storage in the EAAPrevious Studies of Storage in the EAA

The RestudyThe Restudy ““More modeling was done concerning EAA storage More modeling was done concerning EAA storage

than any other component in the screening phase” than any other component in the screening phase” (Yellow Book, p. B-25) (Yellow Book, p. B-25)

Screening model looked at sizes up to 200,000 acres.Screening model looked at sizes up to 200,000 acres. Detailed analysis of 20,000 to 80,000 acre reservoirs.Detailed analysis of 20,000 to 80,000 acre reservoirs. The selected plan specified a maximum of 360,000 The selected plan specified a maximum of 360,000

acre feet of storage. acre feet of storage. Increasing the size of the reservoir had negative Increasing the size of the reservoir had negative

environmental and economic impacts.environmental and economic impacts. Acceler8 now proceeding with first phase of the EAA Acceler8 now proceeding with first phase of the EAA

Reservoir to store 190,000 acre-feet.Reservoir to store 190,000 acre-feet.

Question:Question:Why have Lake Okeechobee discharges been so high in Why have Lake Okeechobee discharges been so high in recent years?recent years?

Answer:Answer:Climate indicators suggest a wet regime has returned to Climate indicators suggest a wet regime has returned to south Florida.south Florida.

Rainfall during the 2004 & 2005 wet seasons produced Rainfall during the 2004 & 2005 wet seasons produced very large inflows to Lake Okeechobeevery large inflows to Lake Okeechobee

Rainfall 13.5” above normal in Upper Kissimmee 2004 & 2005Rainfall 13.5” above normal in Upper Kissimmee 2004 & 2005 Inflows 8Inflows 8thth & 9 & 9thth highest since 1914 highest since 1914 7 higher years include 1928 & 19477 higher years include 1928 & 1947

By design, large releases from Lake Okeechobee to the By design, large releases from Lake Okeechobee to the estuaries have been required for the last 100 years.estuaries have been required for the last 100 years.

Water Quantity IssuesWater Quantity Issues

Wet Season: June-October

Question:Question:How much excess water was discharged from How much excess water was discharged from Lake O. during 2003 - 2005?Lake O. during 2003 - 2005?

Water Quantity Issues (continued)Water Quantity Issues (continued)

Discharge from Lake O

To SLE To CE Total Equiv Depth

2003 501 1241 1742 3.7 ft

2004 529 1024 1553 3.3 ft

2005 825 2136 2960 6.3 ft

Provisional discharge estimates in thousand acre-feet

Question:Question:How much excess water was discharged to the How much excess water was discharged to the estuaries during 2003 - 2005?estuaries during 2003 - 2005?

Water Quantity Issues (continued)Water Quantity Issues (continued)

Discharge to SLE from: Discharge to CE from:

C44Basin Lake O Total C43Basin Lake O Total

2003 123 (20%)

501 (80%)

624 1371 (52%)

1241 (48%)

2611

2004 143 (21%)

529 (79%)

672 827 (45%)

1024 (55%)

1851

2005 364 (31%)

825 (69%)

1188 1602 (43%)

2136 (57%)

3738

Provisional discharge estimates in thousand acre-feet

Note: These estimates do not include inflows to the estuaries from tributaries downstream of S-79 or S-80.

Question:Question:Assuming 400,000 acres could be flooded, Assuming 400,000 acres could be flooded, would there still be damaging discharges to the would there still be damaging discharges to the Estuaries?Estuaries?

Answer: Answer: Yes, particularly during wet years like 2005.Yes, particularly during wet years like 2005.

Modeling the 36 year period of record for Modeling the 36 year period of record for today’s system and operation shows:today’s system and operation shows: In 17 of 36 years there was no regulatory dischargeIn 17 of 36 years there was no regulatory discharge In 27 of 36 years discharge was < 600,000 ac-ft/yearIn 27 of 36 years discharge was < 600,000 ac-ft/year In 6 of 36 years discharge was greater than In 6 of 36 years discharge was greater than

1,000,000 ac-ft/year1,000,000 ac-ft/year

Water Quantity Issues (continued)Water Quantity Issues (continued)

Question:Question:Would the EAA be flooded every year?Would the EAA be flooded every year?

Answer: Answer: No. Regulatory releases follow the climate cycles. No. Regulatory releases follow the climate cycles. Storage areas would be inactive during dry years for Storage areas would be inactive during dry years for

75% of the years that were simulated.75% of the years that were simulated. Restudy analysis could not justify cost of buying land Restudy analysis could not justify cost of buying land

and building a huge reservoir that is underutilized in and building a huge reservoir that is underutilized in most years.most years.

Regulatory discharges often happen in Regulatory discharges often happen in consecutive yearsconsecutive years Storage areas would be full after first wet year and not Storage areas would be full after first wet year and not

available during successive wet years.available during successive wet years.

Water Quantity Issues (continued)Water Quantity Issues (continued)

Estimated Total Regulatory Discharge from Estimated Total Regulatory Discharge from Lake Okeechobee (million ac-ft)Lake Okeechobee (million ac-ft)

3.0

Simulated flow for 1965-2000with today’s system & operation

Actual flow for 2003-2005

We have spent the last 15 years implementing the We have spent the last 15 years implementing the Everglades Construction Project and other elements of Everglades Construction Project and other elements of the EFA.the EFA.

Flooding the EAA farms raises numerous issues in the Flooding the EAA farms raises numerous issues in the context of the EFA and the Federal Consent Decree that context of the EFA and the Federal Consent Decree that could threaten the progress to date.could threaten the progress to date.

Rainfall on flooded fields would produce a much different timing, Rainfall on flooded fields would produce a much different timing, quality and quantity of runoff to the STAs.quality and quantity of runoff to the STAs.

The initial flooding is likely to mobilize high levels of soil The initial flooding is likely to mobilize high levels of soil phosphorus.phosphorus.

Drying and re-wetting will cause continuing water quality issues Drying and re-wetting will cause continuing water quality issues and problems with exotic species.and problems with exotic species.

Muck fires on the former farm land will pose a significant riskMuck fires on the former farm land will pose a significant risk SFWMD would have to operate the farm water management SFWMD would have to operate the farm water management

systems to continue to provide flow to the Everglades during the systems to continue to provide flow to the Everglades during the many years without Lake releases. many years without Lake releases.

Everglades IssuesEverglades Issues

Everglades Agricultural AreaEverglades Agricultural Area Existing and Proposed STAs & Storage AreasExisting and Proposed STAs & Storage Areas

Estimated CostsEstimated CostsTemporary use of the land is not an option. Flooding Temporary use of the land is not an option. Flooding

the cane and vegetable farms would eliminate the the cane and vegetable farms would eliminate the Florida sugar industry and most vegetable farms.Florida sugar industry and most vegetable farms. 400,000 acres of sugar cane land would cost between 400,000 acres of sugar cane land would cost between

$4 billion - $8 billion.$4 billion - $8 billion. Must also add the costs of mills, refineries, distribution Must also add the costs of mills, refineries, distribution

centers, railroads, farms and future income, which centers, railroads, farms and future income, which would have to be paid to the current owners.would have to be paid to the current owners.

Costs associated with the new infrastructure necessary Costs associated with the new infrastructure necessary to safely store 1 to 2 feet of water on most of the EAA to safely store 1 to 2 feet of water on most of the EAA are unknown, but are likely to be very high. are unknown, but are likely to be very high.

Reduction in Florida employment (including multiplier Reduction in Florida employment (including multiplier impacts) = 19,800 jobs (~1 job lost in Florida per every impacts) = 19,800 jobs (~1 job lost in Florida per every 20 acres taken out of production).20 acres taken out of production).

Does not include social or economic impacts to Does not include social or economic impacts to communities around the Lake.communities around the Lake.

Flooding the EAA - SummaryFlooding the EAA - Summary

Lake O. is not savedLake O. is not saved EAA is less than 3% of the Lake’s inflow and P-load since 2001EAA is less than 3% of the Lake’s inflow and P-load since 2001 Flooding the EAA does not help Lake water quality Flooding the EAA does not help Lake water quality To control exotics and prevent muck fires on the former farm To control exotics and prevent muck fires on the former farm

land, larger supplies from the Lake will be needed during dry land, larger supplies from the Lake will be needed during dry periodsperiods

Estuaries are not savedEstuaries are not saved There would still be years when large discharges to the estuaries There would still be years when large discharges to the estuaries

would be required (e.g. 2005)would be required (e.g. 2005) Much of the damaging flow and poor water quality to the Much of the damaging flow and poor water quality to the

estuaries is from development in the local basinsestuaries is from development in the local basins

Everglades WCAs cannot accept more inflowEverglades WCAs cannot accept more inflow Already stressed by high water during wet yearsAlready stressed by high water during wet years P-load limitations per the EFA & Federal Consent DecreeP-load limitations per the EFA & Federal Consent Decree

Flooding the EAA - SummaryFlooding the EAA - Summary An extremely expensive undertaking.An extremely expensive undertaking.

$4 billion - $8 billion for 400,000 acres of productive cane land $4 billion - $8 billion for 400,000 acres of productive cane land Billions more to reimburse the investment in plant and equipmentBillions more to reimburse the investment in plant and equipment Additional costs to construct and operate water control facilities Additional costs to construct and operate water control facilities

needed to flood the propertyneeded to flood the property

Social costs would be enormousSocial costs would be enormous Thousands of jobs lost immediatelyThousands of jobs lost immediately Rural communities around the Lake destroyedRural communities around the Lake destroyed

Bottom Line: Bottom Line: Huge Social and Economic Cost – Minimal BenefitsHuge Social and Economic Cost – Minimal Benefits

So what is the solution? So what is the solution? Implement LOER and Acceler8 Projects. Evaluate additional ideas for Implement LOER and Acceler8 Projects. Evaluate additional ideas for

storage and treatment north of the Lake and in the Caloosahatchee storage and treatment north of the Lake and in the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie watersheds.and St. Lucie watersheds.