flexible & printed electronics pe presentation v2.pdf · manufacturing process can include...
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© 2013
Copyrights © Yole Développement SARL. All rights reserved.
Flexible & Printed
Electronics
© 2012 • 2
Fields of Expertise
• Yole Developpement is a market, technology and strategy consulting company, founded in 1998. We operate in the following areas:
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• 30 full time analysts with technical and marketing degrees
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& Med Tech
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© 2012 • 3
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© 2012 • 4
4 Business Models • Custom Analysis:
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© 2012 • 5
Our Global Activity
Yole Inc.
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30% of our business is
in North America
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in Asia
40% of our business is
in EU Countries
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S+C
© 2012 • 6
Some of Our Customers
Financial investors
& industry advocates
R&D Organizations
Suppliers (equipment,
wafers, materials)
Component
manufacturers
Integrators, system
suppliers & end users
© 2013• 7
Definitions
• In the following slides, we use the following definitions:
– Flexible electronics: Partly or completely flexible electronic devices.
Manufacturing process can include evaporation, MOCVD, solution printing etc.
– Printed electronics: Electronic devices using solution-based manufacturing
processes (screen printing, roll-to-roll, inkjet etc.)
– Polytronics: Formerly “Polymer Electronics”. They are devices mixing printed
electronics, flexible electronics, and inorganic electronics (standard Si ICs, thin
film technologies and so on… )
© 2013• 8
APPLICATION LANDSCAPE
© 2013• 9
Application landscape (1/3)
Flexible
Application enabling / Function
enabling
Printed
(Potentially) Large volumes / Low
cost
Large OLED
Displays
TV
Small OLED
Displays
Mobile phones /
tablets
Conformable
Organic PV
Energy
harvesting
Large / high
volume
Organic PV
PV farms /
grid
electricity
OLED
Lighting
General
lighting
Systems on foil
Smart systems,
polytronics
Conformable
OLED Lighting
Automotive /
luxury lighting
Gas sensors
Wireless
sensors
Electronic
paper
e-readers
© 2013• 10
Application landscape (2/3)
• Market drivers for flexible and printed electronics are different, even though
manufacturing processes and end applications share similarities
• Main market drivers for flexible electronics are:
– The possibility to add new functionalities:
• Conformability for OLED lighting (for the automotive industry),
• Conformability for OPV (energy harvesting)
• Robustness for small OLED displays (for smart phones & tablets)
– The possibility to create new applications:
• wearable electronics.
– Flexible electronics is NOT meant to be low-cost, and usually uses expensive processes
(MOCVD, evaporation)
• The main market driver for printed electronics is:
– Cost reduction thanks to high volume (Roll-to-roll) manufacturing or to the fewer use of
expensive manufacturing processes (MOCVD, evaporation):
• potentially lower cost OLED TVs can be built if solution based manufacturing is mastered, potentially
low cost OPV can appear if technical challenges are leveraged
© 2013• 11
Application landscape (3/3)
Technology Application Development
driver Manufacturing focus
Displays
Small OLED
Display
Smart phone & tablets
displays; PMP displays etc. Robustness
Flexible substrate &
encapsulation
Large OLED
Display TV screens Lowering costs
Large volume (R2R)
solution printing
Electronic
paper
E-readers; auxiliary screen
for cellphones
Low power
consumption
Standard evaporation /
solution processes
Lighting
Conformable
OLED lighting
Automotive indoor lighting;
luxury lighting Conformability
Flexible substrates &
encapsulation: flexible
material layers
Large panel
OLED lighting General lighting
Lighting
homogeneity
Standard evaporation /
solution processes
OPV
Conformable
OPV
Energy harvesting;
conformable solar panels Conformability Inkjet printing
Large volume
OPV
Solar farms; building
powering Lowering costs
Large volume (R2R)
solution printing
Sensing
Printed sensors Chemical sensing; printed
touchscreens Lowering costs
Any manufacturing
process
Systems on foil
/ Smart sensors
RFID sensing; medical,
cosmetic, packaging, etc…
Enabling the
“Internet of
Things”; low cost
smart systems
Polytronics
© 2013• 12
Players landscape (1/3)
Flexible
Application enabling / Function
enabling
Printed
(Potentially) Large volumes / Low
cost
Large OLED
Displays
Small OLED
Displays Conformable
Organic PV
Large / high
volume Organic
PV OLED Lighting
Systems on foil /
polytronics
Conformable
OLED Lighting
Gas sensors
Electronic
paper
© 2013• 13
Players landscape (2/3) Main Equipment Supplier Map
Printed electronics and Flexible electronics share most of their manufacturing processes
© 2013• 14
Players landscape (3/3) Main Material Supplier Map
Printed electronics and Flexible electronics share the same manufacturing materials
© 2013• 15
Each Printed Electronics Segment Has Very
Complex Supply Chains
Example of ThinFilm Electronics NVRAM supply chain Unique to ThinFilm
If you want to play in
Printed Electronics, you
have to put your own
infrastructure together!
© 2013• 16
PRINTED ELECTRONICS APPLICATIONS
© 2013• 17
Printed Electronics Applications
© 2013• 18
Former YOLE Printed Electronics Forecast
by Application
peLMS = Logic, memory & sensors and includes 50+ applications
“pe” represents “printed
electronics”
Must use traditional "printing"
manufacturing techniques
Must be "electronic" and not
simply electrical
These two definitions separate
out new and interesting
technological advancements
from simply old technologies
that may be flexible or use
organic polymers
Substrates may be flexible or
not , transparent or not ,
organic or inorganic
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
peLMS $18 $33 $59 $107 $194 $351
peSolar $25 $29 $34 $40 $47 $55
peLighting $4 $16 $70 $200 $448 $810
peDisplay (peOLEDs &ePapers)
$153 $266 $430 $518 $665 $765
$0
$500
$1 000
$1 500
$2 000
$2 500
Re
ve
nu
es
$ m
illi
on
US
D
Printed Electronics By Applications
© 2013• 19
Technology needs always more time to
come to the market…
peLMS = Logic, memory & sensors and includes 50+ applications
“pe” represents “printed
electronics”
Must use traditional "printing"
manufacturing techniques
Must be "electronic" and not
simply electrical
These two definitions separate
out new and interesting
technological advancements
from simply old technologies
that may be flexible or use
organic polymers
Substrates may be flexible or
not , transparent or not ,
organic or inorganic
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
peLMS $18 $33 $59 $107 $194 $351
peSolar $25 $29 $34 $40 $47 $55
peLighting $4 $16 $70 $200 $448 $810
peDisplay (peOLEDs &ePapers)
$153 $266 $430 $518 $665 $765
$0
$500
$1 000
$1 500
$2 000
$2 500
Re
ve
nu
es
$ m
illi
on
US
D
Printed Electronics By Applications
© 2013• 20
Flexible Printed Electronics Market
Forecast in US$M by application
• Printed & flexible electronics market will grow from below $200M in 2013
to ~$960M in 2020.
© Yole Développement 2013
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Smart devices $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 01 $ 02 $ 05
RFID $ 00 $ 00 $ 01 $ 02 $ 03 $ 06 $ 09 $ 15
Sensors $ 01 $ 05 $ 09 $ 15 $ 22 $ 30 $ 45 $ 55
Printed & Flexible PV $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 01 $ 01
Flexible PV $ 04 $ 03 $ 04 $ 10 $ 12 $ 14 $ 16 $ 17
Printed PV $ 04 $ 02 $ 01 $ 01 $ 01 $ 01 $ 01 $ 02
Printed & Flexible OLED lighting $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 17 $ 41
Flexible OLED lighting $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 02 $ 06 $ 18 $ 33 $ 58
Printed OLED lighting $ 00 $ 00 $ 03 $ 15 $ 31 $ 81 $ 134 $ 210
E readers $ 133 $ 129 $ 126 $ 123 $ 119 $ 105 $ 110 $ 115
Printed & Flexible OLED displays $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 00 $ 97 $ 118 $ 142
Printed OLED display large size $ 00 $ 00 $ 02 $ 07 $ 23 $ 69 $ 169 $ 276
Flexible OLED displays small size $ 34 $ 42 $ 42 $ 82 $ 120 $ 112 $ 95 $ 22
$ 00
$ 200
$ 400
$ 600
$ 800
$ 1,000
$ 1,200
Mar
ket
Val
ue
(U
S$M
)
2013-2020 Printed & Flexible Electronics Market Forecast in US$M
CAGR
123,61%
71,88%
77,27%
79,71%
22,28%
-10,78%
146,94%
111,84%
89,64%
-1,99%
21,05%
169,84%
-6,13%
© 2013• 21
Printed & Flexible Electronics 2013-2020 forecast:
Print vs. Flex vs. Print/Flex in US$M
© Yole Développement 2013
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Printed & Flexible $ 01 $ 05 $ 10 $ 17 $ 25 $ 134 $ 192 $ 259
Flexible $ 39 $ 46 $ 46 $ 94 $ 139 $ 144 $ 143 $ 97
Printed $ 136 $ 131 $ 132 $ 146 $ 174 $ 256 $ 414 $ 602
$ 00
$ 200
$ 400
$ 600
$ 800
$ 1,000
$ 1,200
Mar
ket
valu
e (
US$
M)
Printed vs. Flexible vs. Printed&Flexible 2013-2020 Forecast in processed surface (US$M)
CAGR
38,94%
15,96%
23,65%
© 2013• 22
PRINTED ELECTRONICS CHALLENGES:
TECHNICAL LIMITATIONS
© 2013• 23
Technical limitations
• Materials performances
– High-performance materials are required for most
applications such as OLED displays for example.
– Solution materials have to keep from mixing with each other
– They have to stay contained in a pixels area for displays
– Etc…
• Appropriate equipment
– Appropriate printing equipment must be developed and
affordable.
– Printed electronics requires smaller pitches than what can
offer current printing pieces of equipment: graphic industry
does not need a precision under 40 µm
• High Volumes!
– For printed solutions to become affordable, high volumes
have to be reached, and this will not be the case at short / mid
term
In OLED Displays for example,
high intra-pixel uniformity is
required, which is not yet
attainable with current solutions.
Source: DuPont
© 2013• 24
Aerosol Coatings1,6%
Curing Tools0,8%
Displays (device)29,4%
Inks8,1%
LMS (device)0,1%Polymers
0,6%
Printing Tools3,1%
RFID (device)4,2%
Solar Cells (device)51,6%
Not Defined0,5%
Amount Raised - Applicative BreakdownTOTAL US$1,35B
Dow Jones Venture Source
Application Breakdown
• Solar cells lead the raised amounts in printed electronics, even though they will not be the first to
reach actual volumes, if-ever they can reach high volumes…
© 2013• 25
FLEXIBLE ELECTRONICS CHALLENGES:
TECHNICAL LIMITATIONS
© 2013• 26
Challenges for Flexible Electronics
• Flexible barriers
– The main challenge is on materials for encapsulation
– Current technologies are not so good when used on flexible devices
– Current options such as flexible glass or multi-layer technologies are expensive
– Active materials are required for higher performance applications such as OPV
or flexible OLED. No such material yet exists
• Some companies start to build production lines for flexible OPV in 2016+.
Nevertheless these companies are betting on the hope that a suitable
barrier material will exist by the time the line is operational.
© 2013• 27
PRINTED ELECTRONICS CHALLENGES:
FINANCIAL INCOHERENCE
© 2013• 28
2013 Financial analysis • In last report, we tracked 24 companies for a total of US$1.35B raised over 2000-2010 (we did not
get the information for 3 companies).
• Two years later, 1 companies out of the 3 that had raised > $100M did bankrupt:
– Konarka (photovoltaics).
– Nanosolar starts layoffs in February 2013
– And PlasticLogic is currently trying to find new applications outside the e-readers market!
$422
$372
$180
$61 $59 $57$36 $34 $29 $25 $21 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $4 $3 $3 $3 $2
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Am
ou
t ra
ise
d (
US
$)
Total amount raised over 2000-2011(USD)Dow Jones Venture Source
? ?
© 2013• 29
POLYTRONICS
© 2013• 30
Polytronics definition
• Polytronics (Polymer Electronics) is the “evolution” of printed & flexible electronics.
We assimilate it to the also called “hybrid printed electronics”, it is the integration on
a flexible foil of different technologies:
– Printed devices (printed sensors, OPV)
– Si ICs
– Thin film technologies
– Etc…
• The main purpose of Polytronics is to develop smart systems with a potential low
cost, thus enabling larger visions such as “the Internet of Things” and even more.
• The global interest in polytronics is born from the difficulties faced by the flexible &
printed electronics industry. It is an alternate way to come to similar results while
trying to avoid some of the main challenges.
© 2013• 31
Time for disillusion:
- No killer applications
- Huge technical
challenges
- Low market pull
- Restructuration of the
market (companies
close)
Printed electronics
promises:
- Only a few potential
applications (OLED
displays, touchscreens)
Flexible electronics
promises:
- Not flexibility, but
robustness and
conformability.
Beginning of the Hype for
polytronics
Printed electronics, Flexible electronics &
Polytronics history
80’s 90’s 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s
Highly conductive
polymers start to be
investigated.
Printed electronics
promises:
- New applications
(Kodak’s first diode)
Beginning of the hype
Printed electronics
promises:
- New applications
- Low costs
Flexible electronics is
being investigated
In the hype!
Tremendous amounts
of money are being
invested. First
working prototypes
are demonstrated.
Start-ups are
popping-out
Printed electronics
promises:
- New applications
- Low costs
- Infinite potential
Beginning of the hype
for flexible electronics
Polytronics starts to
be investigated
First high volumes
in printed & flexible
electronics, in a few
applications only
Actual polytronics
challenges are
being revealed
Legend:
Printed electronics
Flexible electronics
Polytronics
© 2013• 32
Several building blocks are being investigated by polytronics. Some building block already exist,
but most of them must exist to build a marketable devices.
Some companies have already developed commercial products, but are now in “advance of
phase” and are techno-pushing
- Projects: Interflex, Chip2Foil, SmartEC, PRIAM etc…
- Bosch
- NXP
- VTT
- Fraunhofer
- CEA LITEN
- Etc…
- EnFuCell,
Infinite Power
Solutions, etc…
- Disasolar,
Eight 19,
Armor,
(Heliatek),
etc…
- KWJ
Engineering
- NXP
- Prelonic
technologies
- DuPont Teijin
- Agfa
- Heraeus
- Etc…
Polytronics main focus: Smart Systems
Thin film battery Energy
harvesting
Small/thin
inorganic
electronics
Printed sensors Printed antennas Materials
© 2013• 33
The 2009-2012 Pasteur project aims at creating a printed RFID – wireless sensor tag for which
enables monitoring the environmental conditions of perishables in the cold chain.
Many industrials and research centers are involved in this project: NVC, Inkoa, KUL,
WageningenUP, Verhaert, Philips, TU/e, NXP, Prelonic, TU Delft, CNM, IMEC, NTC, TNO, Catrene,
Boschman.
RFID – wireless sensor tag demonstrators: RFID – Wireless sensor tag structure
Example: Pasteur EU project
RFID – Sensor tag
© 2013• 34
Polytronics current stage
• Pilot facilities are being developed, mixing roll-to-roll processes and pick & place for
inorganic components: VTT, Fraunhofer Institute, CEA LITEN, etc…
• Prototypes and start-ups start to appear:
– VTT and EnFuCell : biosensor coupled with electronics for cosmetic applications like
monitoring lotion penetration into the skin
– Fraunhofer EMFT: polytronics based Lab-on-a-chip
BUT
• Only niche applications have been identified. The only killer application could be
RFID if costs manage to go lower than Si-based RFID
• The technology is still at basic development stage
• Practical questions start to arise:
– Smart packages: How to recycle it? It cannot go into standard recycle bins…
– Smart clothing: Will it be trend-dependent and never last more than one season?
– Smart sensing: Is there an health issue if my kid tries to eat the sensor I put in my
refrigerator?
© 2013• 35
Surfing on the hype
1990 2000 2010 2020
Late 90’s: beginning of
the hype for printed
electronics
Start-ups start to be
created
2005-2008: In the hype for
printed electronics
Large investments in R&D
/ large investments in
start ups
2000’s: beginning of the
hype for flexible
electronics
Start-ups start to be
created
2012: End of the hype for
printed electronics
Industry restructuration /
companies start to close
2010’s: In the hype for
flexible electronics
Large investments in R&D
/ large investments in
start ups
2013: beginning of the
hype for polytronics
Start-ups start to be
created
Legend:
Printed electronics
Flexible electronics
Polytronics
Interest and investments
© 2011 • 36
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.- Printed Electronics Report June 2011
PE “At-a-glance”
• Yole defines Printed Electronics as using some kind of printing technology AND
requiring a “semiconductor effect” such as “electron donor acceptor” or
“electron-hole” type activity
Yole sees the printed electronics segment as very different from printed wires and other
electrical devices
The semiconductor junction effect separates printed electronics from printed wires (e.g.
RFID antennas) and printed batteries etc.
• The industry is highly fragmented and needs to coalesce around 1-2
manufacturing techniques in each application or the efficiencies of industry will
not lower prices for equipment and material supply channels to make many
applications economical.
This is however not the case today as many manufacturing techniques can be used for
different applications.
pe transistors can be printed by various means: Inkjet, Gravure, Roll-to-roll,
Flexography, Nano-imprint, Screen printing, Spin coating
Overall the printed electronics industry need more “killer applications” (none today) and
“manufacture-able prototypes” to kick-start the markets
© 2012 • 37
DISCUSSION