flexibilizing the brazilian power sector: moving …electricity consumption: 1970 to 2013 0 5 10 15...
TRANSCRIPT
Flexibilizing the Brazilian Power Sector: moving beyond large hydroplants with new technologies and
energy efficiency
Gilberto M Jannuzzi
University of Campinas
Content
• The context: the recent past and challenges
• Areas of current research
– Energy planning and policy
– Technology foresight studies
– Residential end-uses surveys and measurements
The energy scene
• Total energy demand is increasing faster thanGDP (2012-13: GDP growth 2.3% x Energy 4.5%)
• Power sector: historically hydro-dependent(70-80% annual consumption supplied byhydroelectricty)
• Climate changes: recurrent drought andchanging river flow
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
PR
IMA
Y E
NER
GY
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N (
Mte
p)
YEAR
Non-Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy
Total Primary Energy Production
PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION: 1970 to 2013
4Fonte: Balanço Energético Nacional – BEN (2014). Série Históricas Completas 1970 a 2013.
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION: 1970 to 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
ELEC
TRIC
ITY
CO
NSU
MP
TIO
N (
Mte
p)
5
2013(44,40 Mtep) ou 516,3 TWh
Fonte: Balanço Energético Nacional – BEN (2014). Série Históricas Completas 1970 a 2013.
Power sector: Evolution of installed capacity MW: 1963 a 2014
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
100.000
110.000
120.000
130.000
140.000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CA
PA
CID
AD
E EL
ÉTR
ICA
INST
ALA
DA
[M
W]
ANO
6
Fonte: Balanço Energético Nacional – BEN (2014); Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica – ANEEL (2014)
Fonte: Balanço Energético Nacional – BEN (2014)
COMPOSIÇÃO DA MATRIZ ELÉTRICA BRASILEIRA - 2013
7
72,2 %
11,6 %
7,8 %
4,5 %
2,7 %
2,5 % 1,1 %
HIDRÁULICA + IMPORTAÇÃO
GÁS NATURAL
BIOMASSA (BAGAÇO DE CANA E MADEIRA)
DERIVADOS DE PETRÓLEO
CARVÃO MINERAL
NUCLEAR
EÓLICA
ENERGIA ARMAZENADA EM RESERVATÓRIOS: 2000 a 2014
Fonte: Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico – ONS (2014) 8
0
25.000
50.000
75.000
100.000
125.000
150.000
175.000
200.000
225.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ener
gia
Híd
rica
méd
ia A
rmaz
enad
a [M
W/a
no
]
ANO
SIN
SE/CO
S
N
NE
8%
69%
18% 5% S
SE/CO
NE
N
9
Evolution of the energy stored in water resevoirs 2013-2022 (PNE 2030)
Fonte: Plano Nacional de Energia – PNE 2030
Analisando a previsão de capacidade de armazenamento dos reservatórios ao final do ano de 2022, percebe-se que, em termos percentuais, a elevação de 2% é bem inferior ao aumento da capacidade instalada de usinas hidrelétricas, de 40%.
Recent trends: official responses
• Diversification of the electricity supply base
– Suport mechanisms to disseminate
• Wind, Small Hydro, Biomass
• Solar PV only very recently
• Big hydro: limited storage capacity in plantsbuilt after 2003. Trend: build more runnoff-type hydroplants (to ensure “firm energy”)
• More reliance on thermal generation
Our approach
Renewable Energy Energy
Efficiency
Energy policies
Climate policies
Socio-economic delopment
policies
Science, Technology
and Innovation
policies
DSM, consumer behaviour
DEMAND-SIDE RESOURCES
End-use efficiency
Demand-response
Materials, Storage
technologies
INTERFACE TECHNOLOGIES
Smart appliances,
grids, meters
Energy sources
(primary and secndary)
SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCESSupply side efficiency
Our studies
1. Energy future outlook studies: Modelling policies todisseminate distributed RE generation technologiesand energy efficiency. Market transformationpotentials and policies.
2. Energy technology assessment needs for mitigationand adaptation (including new storage technologies ). Domestic capability and technology transfer issues.
3. Residential consumer behaviour: end-use meteringand surveys (refrigerator, lighting and water heating). Low income energy efficiency programmes. Smartgrids in the residential sector
Jannuzzi, Gilberto de Martino, and Conrado Augustus de Melo. 2013. “Grid-ConnectedPhotovoltaic in Brazil: Policies and Potential Impacts for 2030.” Energy for SustainableDevelopment 17 (1): 40–46. doi:10.1016/j.esd.2012.10.010.
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Overview
Description
Table of Contents
Author Information
Reviews and Awards
Energy Poverty
Global Challenges and Local Solutions
Edited by Antoine Halff, Benjamin K. Sovacool, and
Jon Rozhon
A one-stop treatment of energy poverty, an issue
whose pivotal role in the fight for human
development and against poverty is only now being
recognised
A practical guide and reference work for
policymakers and practitioners in the field
Provides a fresh perspective on tomorrow's energy
challenges
Brings together diverse viewpoints and includes
contributions from experts and practitioners from
all over the world, including China, India, Brazil,
sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East
Includes chapters from authors at the cutting edge
of research: Fatih Birol, chief economist of the
International Energy Agency, Han Wenke, head of
China's Energy Research Institute, Nigel Bruce of
the World Health Organisation, and Jason Bordoff,
former senior advisor on energy to President
Barack Obama
Description
Table of Contents
Keyword, Author, ISBN, Tit le Search Advanced Search
Arts & Hum anit ies Dict ionaries & Reference Law Medicine & Health Science & Mathem at ics Social Sciences JournalsHigher
Educat ion
This edited volume looks at energy poverty, an issue whose pivotal role in the fight for
human development is only now being recognised by policymakers. Nearly one quarter of
humanity still lacks access to electricity. Close to one third rely on traditional fuels like
firewood and cow dung for cooking, at great cost to their health and welfare. While most
prevalent in parts of Africa and Asia, energy poverty is a global problem which concerns us
all. This book, which brings together economists, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and other
practitioners from all over the world, is dedicated to a single goal: finding a solution to this
haunting problem. It is part history, part economics, part political analysis, part business
case review, and part field handbook. Part One focuses on defining and measuring the
problem and benchmarking progress in solving it, an obvious prerequisite to any successful
energy-access policy. Part Two reviews past and current energy access programs, with an
eye towards finding out what worked and what didn't and what can be replicated elsewhere.
These case reviews are told as seen on the ground - China's experience by top Chinese
officials and Africa's by African regulators and scholars. Based in part on those cases, the
book's last, more forward-looking section aims to present practitioners with a tool kit, a
menu of options to speed up their efforts. The energy access agenda is gaining traction at a
time of rising concerns about climate change and resource constraints. This book shows that
bringing modern energy to those who lack it not just a moral imperative, but will likely
benefit the world as a whole without harming the environment or unduly stretching finite
resources.
Part I : Tak ing Stock of Energy Poverty
Introduction: The End of Energy Poverty: Pathways to Development, Antoine Halff, Benjam in
Sovacool, and Jon Rozhon
1. Achieving Energy For All Will Not Cost The Earth, Fat ih Birol
2. Defining, Measuring, and Tackling Energy Poverty, Benjam in Sovacool
3. The Development Impact of Energy Access, Douglas F. Barnes, Hussain Sam ad, Cesar
Calderon, and Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee
De Melo, Conrado Augustus, Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi, and Aline Ferreira Tripodi. 2013. “Evaluating Public Policy Mechanisms for Climate Change Mitigation in Brazilian Buildings Sector.” Energy Policy 61 (October): 1200–1211. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.056.
Jannuzzi, G. M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2009. Integração de Agenda Mudanças Climáticas: Energia E Desenvolvimento. Brasília: CGEE -Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos.
Jannuzzi, Gilberto M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2008. Energias Do Futuro. Brasília: CGEE - Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos. http://gilbertomartino.wordpress.com/2009/07/15/energias-do-futuro-relatorio-final/.
Jannuzzi, G. M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2010. Oportunidades Para a Difusão de Tecnologias de Energia Limpas: Subsídios Para a Participação Nacional Na Conferência de Mudança Do Clima. Brasília: CGEE - Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos.
Energy Technology Foresight, Needsand Domestic Capability Status
Fonte: IEA 2008
Gilberto M Jannuzzi, and Marcelo K Poppe. 2011. “Desenvolvimento, Cooperação e Transferência de Tecnologias Energéticas de Baixa Emissão.” In “Mudança do clima no Brasil: aspectos econômicos, sociais e regulatórios“, 195-210. Brasília: IPEA. Also in English: Development, ” Climate Change in Brazil: Economic, Social and Regulatory Aspects“, Editors: Seroa da Motta, R., Hargrave, J.; Luedemann, G.; and Gutierrez, B. S., Brasília, Ipea, 2011
Submitted to Energy Policy 2014Nonconventional renewable energy governance in Brazil: lessons to learn from the German experience
*Conrado Augustus de Melo a, Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi b, Sergio Valdir Bajay c
a State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), School of Mechanical Engineering (FEM), P.O. box 6122, Campinas, SP, 13083-860, Brazilb State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) and International Energy Initiative (IEI-LA), P.O. box 6122, Campinas, SP, 13083-970, Brazilc State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Interdisciplinary Center for Energy Planning (NIPE), P.O. box 6166, Campinas, SP, 13083-896, Brazil
Our studies
1. Energy future outlook studies: Modelling policies todisseminate distributed RE generation technologiesand energy efficiency. Market transformationpotentials and policies.
2. Energy technology assessment needs for mitigationand adaptation (including new storage technologies ). Domestic capability and technology transfer issues.
3. Residential consumer behaviour: end-use meteringand surveys (refrigerator, lighting and water heating). Low income energy efficiency programmes. Smartgrids in the residential sector
Researchers involved
• UNICAMP– G. M Jannuzzi, S. Bajay, A. Furtado, E. Camilo, A. Causo
• CGEE– M. Poppe
• University of Bochum– Prof. C. Pielow, I. Heitmann
• International Energy Initiative– R. Gomes, C. Melo, J Paccola, P Santana
• Former Master student initiated a Solar PV installationStartUp in the University StartUp Incubator
THANK YOU
NOPA PROGRAM
Supporters
sources
26
1. Balanço Energético Nacional 2014 - BEN (2014). “Ano-base 2013”.
2. Empresa de Pesquisa Energética - EPE: Séries Históricas Completas – Capítulo 1 Análise Energética e Dados Agregados 1970 a 2013.
3. Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2022. EPE e MME, 2013.
4. Plano Nacional de Energia 2030. EPE e MME, 2007.
5. Estudos de Demanda de Energia: Nota Técnica DEA 13/14 – Demanda 2050. EPE e MME, 2014.
6. Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica: Consulta ao Banco de Dados de Geração. ANEEL, 2014.
7. Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico: Consulta ao Banco de Dados de Operação. ONS, 2014.