flexibilisation of employment in the globalized and ... · median survival in newly entered jobs by...

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KulturwissenschaftlichesInstitut

Institut Arbeit und Technik

WissenschaftszentrumNordrhein-Westfalen

Wuppertal Institut fürKlima, Umwelt, Energie

Flexibilisation of Employment in the Globalized and Knowledge-Based Economy?

1st Global Labour Forum �Globalisation, Technological Change and

Decent Work�Seoul, June 26

Matthias KnuthInstitute for Work and TechnologyGelsenkirchen, Germany

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�High Velocity Labour Market�

�Das bisherige Prinzip, nach dem alle Beschäftigung auf relativer Sicherheit und langfristiger Kalkulierbarkeit beruht, gehört der Vergangenheit an. Auch im Zentrum der Erwerbsgesellschaft reagiert heute das Risikoregime.�(Ulrich Beck, Arbeit ist ein bewegliches Ziel; in: Die Zeit 7/2002)

�The principle of all employment being based on relative security and long-term expectability is now a thing of the past. Today, the risk regime is reigning in the very centre of industrial society.�

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Good reasons to expect a �high velocity labour market�� globalisation ⇒ increased competition ⇒

shorter innovation cycles ⇒ shorter �time to market�

� increased volatility of markets� flexible firm ⇒ flexible employment� downsizing + startups ⇒ smaller

establishments ⇒ fewer degrees of organisational freedom

� individualisation� increasing pluralism of life styles

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�Restructuring of the German Labour Market�*) � Hypotheses

� increasing mobility ⇒ higherlabour turnover rates

� declining job stability⇒decreasing survival in jobs

� experience of unemploymentbecoming more widespread

� changes between occupationsbecoming more frequent

*) Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG � German Research Council);statistical analysis by Marcel Erlinghagen

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Data: IAB Employment Sample 1975 � 1995� 1 per cent sample of German social

insurance registers⇒ 80 per cent of total employment is liable

to social insurance contributions� supplemented with data from

unemployment benefit registers⇒employment & unemployment history

data on daily basis� East German data only available from

1991 ⇒ excluded

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Entry, exit & labour turnover rates, West Germany

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

36%

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1999 2001

Entry

, Exi

t & L

abou

r Tur

nove

r Rat

es

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Em

ploy

men

t (m

illio

ns)

Employment JuneEntry RateExit RateLabour Turnover RateLinear (Labour Turnover Rate)

Sources: IAB Employment Sample 1975�1995; Federal Employment AgencyEmployee Panel 1997�2001; own calculations

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Survival rates of pooled entry cohorts (EK) 1976 �1980 and 1986 �1990

Source: IAB Employment Sample 1975�1995; own calculations

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Median survival in newly entered jobs 1977 � 1993 (total sample)

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

year of entering job

med

ian

surv

ival

(in

days

)


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Median survival in newly entered jobs by establishment size, 1977 �1993

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

year of entering job

med

ian

surv

ival

(in

days

)

>=500 employees

100-499 employees

20-99 employees

1-19 employees


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Median survival in newly entered jobs by level of vocational education, 1977 � 1993

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

med

ian

surv

ival

(in

days

)

academic degree

certified vocational qualification

without vocational qualification


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Survival rates in industriesshaping public opinion

Political Parties, Independent Charities,

Non-profit Organisations

Churches, Religious and PhilosophicalOrganisations

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Dimensions of firms� flexibility

� networking� hiring and firing� layoffs and recalls� fixed-term contracts� temporary agency

work

external

� distribution of workingtime

� redeployment and retraining

� multi-skilling /-tasking� delegation of

responsibilities

� working time� intensity of work

internal

qualitative(functional)

quantitative (numerical)

high performancework organisation

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Most fundamental changes occurring �inside�, not �outside� � tendency towards shorter hours reversed,

most markedly for the highly skilled� boundaries between �work� and �private life�

blurring� increasing complexity, responsibility and

simultaneousness� contingency of the labour contract shifted on

workers� shoulders� mental stress and disorders on the rise� �stable� employment ≠ feeling �secure�⇒ insider efficiency has its price, too

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Concept of �decent work� to be expanded: � sustainability (physical, mental, moral)

� throughout the lifetime a given society considers and frames as �employable age�

� �work-life-balance�: ability to act as a responsible � partner/spouse� parent� citizen

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�Decent work challenge� in the globalised and ageing knowledge society

� traditional concepts of regulationand collective representationdifficult to apply

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Thank You forYour Attention!

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flexibilisation of employment in the globalized and ... · median survival in newly entered jobs by...

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