five years in …. five years on? powerpoints/ron storey - wa crop upda… · imagine 2018-19!! 4...

© Copyright NZX Ltd. 20141

Five Years In …. Five Years On?

2008/9 - 2013/14 - 2018/19

“The Changing Australian Grain Market Place”

Ron Storey

Head, NZX Agribusiness Australia

AGENDA

1.Peek at 2018-19?

2.What has changed in 2008 – 2013?

3.Grower Marketing Changes 2008 – 2013

4.Conclusions: 5 Years On?


Declaration -- NZX Limited

NZX in Australia NZX Stock Exchange

IMAGINE

2018-19!!

16/03/20144

Weekly Grain Market Report

•RADIO 8GIWA … 24 February 2019

•Nathan Cattle of Profarmer reporting ......

•Webinar, podcast, chat room…7 pm

5

WA WHEAT BALANCE SHEET, February 2019

MMT

CARRY-IN 2.0

PRODUCTION 10.0

TOTAL SUPPLY 12.0

DOM USAGE 1.0

CONTAINERS 1.0

EXPORTS 9.0

CARRY-OUT 1.0

6

IF YOU ARE STILL HOLDING GRAIN…..?

Grade GER KWI ALB BUN ESP TOTAL

AH 0.100 - - - - 0.100

APWN 0.150 0.300 0.050 - 0.500

ASW 0.050 0.100 0.050 0.050 0.150 0.400

Total 0.300 0.400 0.050 0.100 0.150 1.000

In Store?

BHCs 0.250 0.300 0.050 0.050 0.100 0.750

OFS 0.050 0.100 - 0.050 0.050 0.2007

WILL THIS DREAM WORK – IN AN INFORMATION SHUTDOWN?

2008-09 2013-14 2018-19

PRODUCTION Yes

EXPORTS Yes Yes

BHC STOCKS Yes

ON FARM STORAGE Yes

DOMESTIC USAGE Yes

BY GRADE

8

2. What has changed – 2008 – 2013?

• What we GROW?

• How it is USED?

• WHERE it goes?

• SPEED of sale?

• WHO buys & exports it?

16/03/20149

What we grow?.... Slight shift to canola


-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08*

2008/09 2009/10* 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Pulse SORGHUM CANOLA BARLEY WHEAT (including Durum)

7 August 2013 © Copyright NZX Ltd. 201311

BUYER 2008-09 2013-14 COMMENT

Indonesia 2.5 – 3.0 4.0 ++ GROWTH

Japan 1.0 1.2 STEADY

Sth Korea 1.0 1.0 + STEADY (Feed?)

Iraq-Iran 0.5 -2.5 0.5 – 2.5 VARIABLE

Vietnam 1.0 1.5 – 2.0 GROWTH

Malaysia 0.8 0.9 STEADY

Sudan 0.7 0.7 STEADY

China 0.3 0.7 + VARIABLE + GTH

WHERE Aust Wheat goes?

Buyers of Aust Barley?

BUYER 2008 - 09 2013 - 14 COMMENT

Saudi 1.5 1.5 STEADY

China 0.7 – 1.0 1.2 – 2.0 GROWTH & VARIABLE


UAE/Gulf 0.2 – 0.3 0.2 – 0.3 STEADY

Sth Korea 0.1 0.2 GROWTH

Vietnam 0.1 0.15 GROWTH

Thailand 0.1 0.15 GROWTH


Buyers of Aust Canola?


…


EU 0.2 - 0.6 1.5 + ??

China -0- 0.7 + GROWTH


Pakistan 0.2 0.4 VARIABLE

UAE 0.05 0.1 – 0.4 VARIABLE ??

Buyers of Aust Sorghum?


…


Japan 0.1 – 1.0 0.7 – 0.8 ??

China -0- 0.7 + GROWTH (Alcohol)

WHEAT – The Big 5


0%

3%

19%

19%

2%

10%

1%

20%

11%

3%

2%

1%2%

3%

1%

3%

National Wheat Market ShareBulk exports 2012/13

BUAA Bunge

Cargill CBH

Dreyfus Emerald

Gavilon Glencore

Graincorp Mitsui

Noble Pentag

Plum Grove QCOT

Riverina Toepfer

CARGILL

CBH

SUMITOMO

GNC

GLENCORE

BARLEY EXPORTS – Big 5 - 6


0%

2%

8%

32%

7%2%

20%

11%

3%

1%1%

1%12%

National Barley Market ShareBulk exports 2012/13

Barret Burston

Bunge

Cargill

CBH

Emerald

Gavilon

Glencore

Graincorp

Joe White M

Noble

Pentag

QCOT

Toepfer

CARGILL

CBH

SUMITOMO

GLENCORE

GNC

TOEPFER

CANOLA EXPORTS – Big 5


11%

27%

4%

4%

29%

7%

1%

16%

1%

National Canola Market ShareBulk exports 2012/13

Cargill

CBH

Emerald

Gavilon

Glencore

Graincorp

Noble

Toepfer

Touton

CARGILL

CBH

GLENCORE

GNC

TOEPFER

BUT, THE “BLACK NICKS” EFFECT……WHEAT

EXPORTER National “Black Nicks”

GNC 11% 47%

GLENCORE 20% 45%

CBH 19% 36%

SUMITOMO 10% 25% (Vic/NSW)

CARGILL 19% 38% (Vic/NSW)


BUT, THE “BLACK NICKS” EFFECT……BARLEY


GNC 11% 100%

GLENCORE 20% 46%

CBH 32% 67%




BUT, THE “BLACK NICKS” EFFECT…CANOLA


GNC 7% 23%

GLENCORE 29% 43%

CBH 27% 66%




What has changed? - SUMMARY

• What we grow, How it is used, Where it goes, Speed of

sale, etc

• >> evolving in response to market – Market Driven

• The Supply Chain and Who Exports – consolidated to

top 4 or 5, esp BHCs.

• >> evolving according to supply chain ownership – Asset

and Info-Power Driven

• Some evidence of grower power/influence in

timing/speed of sale ($300 the magic wheat number?, $500

for canola?

• Grain Quality? – jury is out.


3.Grower Marketing – Changes 2008 – 2013?

• Explosion in grower brokers, advisers,

consultants

>> Price finders… or Advisers??

>> Agronomic … but now Marketing

• Cashflow Mix of Pools, Pre-Harvest, Cash

(Harvest & Post-Harvest), Online


GROWER MARKETING >> Pools, Cash, etc??

2008-9 2013-14 2018-19

POOLS 30-40% 10-15% 10%

PRE-

HARVEST

10% 15-30% 15-30%

CASH 60% 65% 60%

ONLINE - <5% 10%


4. CONCLUSIONS

• Adapting well to market forces: what we grow, where it goes,

speed of sale, etc

• Supply Chain and Who Exports:

> increased infrastructure investment and competition

> resolving “information shutdown”, further consolidation, less choice

• Grower marketing

> shift from price finding to deeper advisory (business management &

risk)

> technology will play a greater part in price discovery and contract

execution

> shift from “cost of inputs” focus to whole of business return on capital

(debate about land ownership and equity)


WILL THIS DREAM WORK – IN AN INFORMATION SHUTDOWN?

2008-09 2013-14 2018-19

PRODUCTION Yes

EXPORTS Yes Yes

BHC STOCKS Yes

ON FARM STORAGE Yes

DOMESTIC USAGE Yes

BY GRADE

25

QUESTIONS?

Thank You

26

five years in …. five years on? powerpoints/ron storey - wa crop upda… · imagine 2018-19!! 4...

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