Middletown City School District

Five-Year Forecast PresentationKelley Thorpe, Treasurer

Presented May 5, 2014

May 2014 Five-Year Forecast UPDATE

• Still missing some critical and necessary information

• Pieces of the puzzle – Negotiations and programmatic changes

• Forecast is designed to be a fluid document that can be modified with changes in the economic environment

• Does not represent the entire financial picture – only considers the General Fund

Forecast Assumptions

• Revenues: – This forecast assumes small operating revenue

increase for FY15; but not beyond– Increase from ODE is planned– Decrease in property values and real estate taxes

Forecast Assumptions

• Expenditures:– This forecast assumes a slight decrease in

expenses• All budget managers given a 2% reduction for FY15• Increase in severance due to retirements (STRS

Changes) • Have Included a 12% increase for health insurance for

FY15 and 15% increase for outlying years

Revenue Details

  Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year  2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Revenues

General Property Tax (Real Estate)

27,586,034

27,406,695

27,456,695

27,561,158

27,763,566

Tangible Personal Property Tax

(0)

0

(0)

(0)

0

Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid

25,792,965

27,158,516

27,158,516

27,158,516

27,158,516

Restricted State Grants-in-Aid

4,131,791

4,131,791

4,131,791

4,131,791

4,131,791

Property Tax Allocation

8,109,964

7,900,136

7,750,136

7,612,203

7,486,437

All Other Revenues

3,932,332

1,532,332

1,532,332

1,532,332

1,532,332

Total Revenues

69,553,086

68,129,469

68,029,469

67,995,999

68,072,642

Revenue Details

40%

37%

6%

12%

6%

Operating Revenues

General Property Tax (Real Estate)Unrestricted State Grants-in-AidRestricted State Grants-in-AidProperty Tax AllocationAll Other Revenues

Expenditure Details  Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year  2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Expenditures          

Personal Services

29,197,574

29,400,568

28,824,070

28,896,130

28,968,370

Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits

11,544,685

11,324,410

12,051,189

13,221,135

14,622,915

Purchased Services

23,841,580

23,742,989

24,338,409

24,792,918

25,256,518

Supplies and Materials

1,176,343

1,352,816

1,393,400

1,435,202

1,478,258

Capital Outlay

1,600,000

-

-

-

-

Principal-HB 264 Loans

160,580

210,082

214,802

219,750

229,939

Interest and Fiscal Charges

77,395

84,323

75,407

66,262

56,802

Other Objects

705,227

691,122

698,034

705,014

712,064

Total Expenditures

68,303,384

66,806,310

67,595,311

69,336,412

71,324,867

Expenditure Details

43%

17%

35%

2%

2%

0%

1%

Operating Expenditures

Personal ServicesEmployees' Retirement/In-surance BenefitsPurchased ServicesSupplies and MaterialsCapital OutlayDebt Service:Other Objects

Comparison to October

Oct FY14 May FY14 Difference Reason

General Property Tax (Real Estate) 27,592,794 27,586,034 (6,760)

Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid 29,674,192 25,792,965 (3,881,227) Split with RestrictedRestricted State Grants-in-Aid 150,000 4,131,791 3,981,791

Property Tax Allocation 8,314,033 8,109,964 (204,069)

All Other Revenues 1,532,332 1,468,332 (64,000) Without Borrowing Included

Total Revenues 67,263,351 67,089,086 (174,265)

-

Personal Services 28,997,574 29,197,574 200,000 More retirees than predicted

Retirement/Insurance Benefits 11,670,361 11,544,685 (125,676)

Purchased Services 22,716,580 23,841,580 1,125,000 More students to charter/community schools

Supplies and Materials 1,016,870 1,176,343 159,473

Capital Outlay 1,600,000 1,600,000 -

Debt Service: 219,701 237,975 18,274

Other Objects 705,227 705,227 -

Total Expenses 66,926,313 68,303,384 1,377,071

Cash Balance 2,760,258 2,072,921 (687,337)

Bottom Line

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cash Balance 2,072,921 2,696,080 2,430,238 389,825 (3,562,400)

Important Puzzle Pieces:1. In negotiations with MTA; no increases to base salary included in

this forecast2. Tomorrow’s election; if fail – will need to increase expenses for

maintenance/repairs3. Programmatic changes – know we need to do something

different with alternative education due to Union Day closing – but decisions have not yet been finalized

Questions