five year financial forecast may 2015 1 cleveland municipal school district
TRANSCRIPT
1
Five Year Financial Forecast
May 2015
Cleveland Municipal School District
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Five Year Forecast - Contents
• Major Assumptions• General Fund Revenues• General Fund Expenditures• Five Year Forecast Summary
3
Cleveland Municipal School District
• Major Assumptions
4
Major AssumptionsRevenue:• Property Tax Collection Rate - The forecast assumes the collection rate will remain at
same level as 2014 or 87%. A 1% change in the collection rate represents $2.6 million.
• Assessed valuation will increase 2.2% to $5.1 billion in calendar year 2016.• Cuyahoga County will complete it’s triennial update in 2015. All property values will
be updated for the 2016 collection year. No change is anticipated.• On 11/6/12 residents passed a 4 year 15 mill levy with collection beginning January
2013. The forecast assumes the levy will expire December 31, 2016. • State Funding – The district is assuming the House’s proposal for state aid. Under the
House’s proposal the district would move from being on the guarantee in FY 15 to the formula in FY 16-19. The biennial budget most likely will not be determined till the end of June.
• Enrollment – The forecast assumes a 2% annual decline in enrollment.
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Major Assumptions continuedExpenditures:• Staffing assumptions:
• Forecast assumes movement from differentiated compensation based on projections.• Forecast assumes all union agreements as currently defined - 1% increase in FY16, 0% in FY17-
FY19• Forecast assumes 250 separations in FY16 and 230 separations in FY17-19• Healthcare rates are forecasted to increase an average of 9.5% in FY16 - FY19.• Forecast assumes $3.6 million of strategic investments per year.• Forecast assumes a loss of $2.5 million of Title IIA which shifts 27 teachers to the General Fund
in FY 16-19• Forecast assumes additional dollars for new schools/school improvements. $7.0 million FY15,
$8.5 million FY16-19. • Forecast assumes $10 million of continued aggressive fiscal management to gain efficiencies
per year in FY16-19.• Forecast assumes no change in charter enrollment.
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19G F 5,116 5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147
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Cleveland Municipal School District
• General Fund Revenues
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictFY 2014-2015
Local Taxes; 29.3%
State; 60.8%
State of Ohio Reim-
bursements, 4.6%
Advance In; 0.5%
Other; 4.8%
Where the Money Comes From
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictLocal Taxes – Property Tax Revenue
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019100.0
125.0
150.0
175.0
200.0
225.0
144.4
175.6
198.3 204.2 205.9
180.1
153.4 155.3
Property Taxes
Property TaxesFiscal Year
R e v e n u e ( I n M i l l i o n s )
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Taxes – Current Collection Rate
75.076.077.078.079.080.081.082.083.084.085.086.087.088.089.090.091.092.093.094.095.096.097.0 96.0
95.9
82.6
80.3Cu
rre
nt
Co
lle
cti
on
Ra
te
Calendar Year
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Taxes – Total Collection Rate
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
201475.00
77.00
79.00
81.00
83.00
85.00
87.00
89.00
91.00
93.00
95.00
97.00
99.00
101.00
96
80.3
4.5
6.7
Current Collection Rate Delinquencies
Cu
rre
nt
Co
lle
cti
on
Ra
te
Calendar Year
87.0%
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictState Foundation Revenue
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$400
$410
$420
$430
$440
$450
$460
414.6 418.1 416.9 415.2
432.5 434.6 436.0 437.38.28.1 5.7 6.9
6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9
Core Aid Other
Rev
enu
e (I
n M
illi
on
s)
Fiscal Year
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictEducation Jobs
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$0$2$4$6$8
$10$12$14$16$18
17.7
Education Jobs
R e v e n u e ( I n M i l l i o n s )
Fiscal Year
13
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Tax Allocation – State Hold Harmless Reimbursements
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
12.215.2
18.3 18.3 18.215.3
12.3 12.4
26.9
13.9
13.9 13.9
7.3
0.70.0 0.0
Property Tax Reimbursements TPP Reimbursements
R e v e n u e ( I n M i l l i o n s )
Fiscal Year
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictOther Revenue
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
16.3 13.8 12.215.6 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.3
7.77.6 9.9
11.3 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
0.60.4
0.6
0.60.7 0.8 0.8 0.92.2
2.0
7.64.4
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.53.5
10 3.74 4 4 4
2.0
1.91.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
Other Other Taxes/Rebate InterestCasino Medicaid Advance In
Fiscal Year
Reve
nue
(In M
illio
ns)
15
General Fund Revenue
2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*600.0
620.0
640.0
660.0
680.0
700.0
720.0
740.0
650.7 656.3
687.6694.2
703.0
669.7
640.7 643.9650.7 656.3
687.6694.2
703.0 701.2 703.9 707.6
Total Revenue Total Revenue - Levy Extended
*Projected – Excluding Advances
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Cleveland Municipal School District
• General Fund Expenditures
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictWhere the Money Goes
Salaries $304,854,306,
43.3%
Benefits, $11,9028,169, 16.9%
Charter School Pass-
Through; 143860084;
20.5%
All Other, $135,703,59
5, 19.3%
FY 2014-2015
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictSalaries
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$250
$260
$270
$280
$290
$300
$310
309.3
282.1
295.3
304.9 306.9 303.5 305.1 304.8
Salaries
Fiscal Year
E x p e n d i t u r e s ( I n M i l l i o n s )
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictFringe Benefits
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
44.7 41.1 42.5 44.6 45.4 44.9 45.1 45.1
57.7 56.2 55.462.0 68.6 75.7 83.4 92.0
4.03.8 4.1
4.14.1
4.14.1
4.1
4.53.2 3.7
3.83.9
3.93.9
3.9
8.38.2 9.0
4.54.0
3.33.3
3.3
STRS/SERS Employee Insurance Benefits MedicareWorkers Compensation Other
Fiscal Year
E x p e n d i t u r e s ( I n M i l l i o n s )
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictPurchased Services
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
12.7 12.5 12.9 12.6 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.210.3 10.1 13.1 14.0 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1
57.0 58.5 65.1 76.5101.4 103.7 104.1 105.1
117.0 127.1141.1
143.9
146.1 148.3 150.5 152.7
Utilities Student Transportation (Contract)Other Purchased Services Charter School Pass-Through
Fiscal Year
Expe
nditu
res
(In M
illio
ns)
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictSupplies, Textbooks, Equipment, and Other Expenditures
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
10.0 10.7 11.2 11.8 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1
1.0 1.0 1.24.4
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.71.7
8.4 7.5
8.18.1 7.5 6.5 6.5
4.2
10.66.0
8.37.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
Supplies and Textbooks Equipment Other Expense Transfers/Advances
E x p e n d i t u r e s ( I n M i l l i o n s )
Fiscal Year
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General Fund Expenditures
2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*450.0
500.0
550.0
600.0
650.0
700.0
750.0
800.0
642.5 633.6
668.2699.4
731.3 738.0 749.6 760.4
Total Expenditures
*Projected – Excluding Advances
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Cleveland Municipal School District
• Five-Year Forecast Summary
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictMay 2015 Five-Year Forecast
(in millions of dollars)
Beginning Cash Balance $34.8 $46.6 $69.3 $98.5 $93.1 $64.8 ($3.5) ($112.4)
Total Revenues 654.3 656.3 697.3 698.0 707.0 673.7 644.7 647.9
Total Expenses 642.5 633.6 668.1 703.4 735.3 742.0 753.6 765.4
Revenue over Expenses 11.8 22.7 29.2 (5.4) (28.3) (68.3) (108.9) (117.5)
Ending Cash Balance 46.6 69.3 98.5 93.1 64.8 (3.5) (112.4) (229.9)
Encumbrances/Reserves 11.0 12.9 17.7 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Unencumbered Balance $35.6 $56.4 $80.8 $73.1 $44.8 ($23.5) ($132.4) ($249.9)
FY 2019FY 2018FY 2016 FY 2017FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
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Cleveland Municipal School District
• Governor’s Proposal
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictFive-Year Forecast Adjusted for Governor’s Proposal
(in millions of dollars)
Beginning Cash Balance $34.8 $46.6 $69.3 $98.5 $93.1 $53.0 ($26.7) ($144.7)
Total Revenues 654.3 656.3 697.3 698.0 695.2 662.3 635.6 641.4
Total Expenses 642.5 633.6 668.1 703.4 735.3 742.0 753.6 765.4
Revenue over Expenses 11.8 22.7 29.2 (5.4) (40.1) (79.7) (118.0) (124.0)
Ending Cash Balance 46.6 69.3 98.5 93.1 53.0 (26.7) (144.7) (268.7)
Encumbrances/Reserves 11.0 12.9 17.7 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Unencumbered Balance $35.6 $56.4 $80.8 $73.1 $33.0 ($46.7) ($164.7) ($288.7)
FY 2019FY 2018FY 2016 FY 2017FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictFive-Year Forecast Adjusted for State’s New Funding Formula May #2
(in millions of dollars)
Beginning Cash Balance $34.8 $46.6 $69.3 $98.5 $91.7 $59.9 ($15.6) ($122.2)
Total Revenues 654.3 656.3 697.3 695.5 703.5 666.5 647.0 655.7
Total Expenses 642.5 633.6 668.1 702.3 735.3 742.0 753.6 765.4
Revenue over Expenses 11.8 22.7 29.2 (6.8) (31.8) (75.5) (106.6) (109.7)
Ending Cash Balance 46.6 69.3 98.5 91.7 59.9 (15.6) (122.2) (231.9)
Encumbrances/Reserves 11.0 12.9 17.7 15.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Unencumbered Balance $35.6 $56.4 $80.8 $76.3 $39.9 ($35.6) ($142.2) ($251.9)
FY 2019FY 2018FY 2016 FY 2017FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictMay 2015- Five-Year Forecast Adjusted for State’s New Funding Formula June #2 Enrollment
(in millions of dollars)
Beginning Cash Balance $34.8 $46.6 $69.3 $98.5 $88.8 $57.0 ($26.4) ($143.8)
Total Revenues 654.3 656.3 697.3 695.4 703.5 658.6 636.2 646.3
Total Expenses 642.5 633.6 668.1 705.1 735.3 742.0 753.6 765.4
Revenue over Expenses 11.8 22.7 29.2 (9.7) (31.8) (83.4) (117.4) (119.1)
Ending Cash Balance 46.6 69.3 98.5 88.8 57.0 (26.4) (143.8) (262.9)
Encumbrances/Reserves 11.0 12.9 17.7 15.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Unencumbered Balance $35.6 $56.4 $80.8 $73.4 $37.0 ($46.4) ($163.8) ($282.9)
FY 2019FY 2018FY 2016 FY 2017FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictFive-Year Forecast Adjusted for Governor’s Proposal – No change in Enrollment
(in millions of dollars)
Beginning Cash Balance $34.8 $46.6 $69.3 $98.5 $93.1 $58.5 ($10.1) ($111.2)
Total Revenues 654.3 656.3 697.3 698.0 700.7 673.4 652.5 664.2
Total Expenses 642.5 633.6 668.1 703.4 735.3 742.0 753.6 765.4
Revenue over Expenses 11.8 22.7 29.2 (5.4) (34.6) (68.6) (101.1) (101.2)
Ending Cash Balance 46.6 69.3 98.5 93.1 58.5 (10.1) (111.2) (212.4)
Encumbrances/Reserves 11.0 12.9 17.7 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Unencumbered Balance $35.6 $56.4 $80.8 $73.1 $38.5 ($30.1) ($131.2) ($232.4)
FY 2019FY 2018FY 2016 FY 2017FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
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Questions
Cleveland Municipal School District