first glance 12l (3q15) · first glance 12l (3q15) banking conditions improved despite slowdown...

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First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis, Kenneth Wang Editors: Cynthia Course, David Doyle, Alex Lightfoot, Bronwen Macro, Gary Palmer, Daniel Phillips, Mark Snyder, Wally Young This report is based upon preliminary data from 3Q2015 and prior Condition & Income Reports as well as other examination and economic sources. Data has been prepared primarily for bank supervisors and bankers. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Opinions are intended only for informational purposes, and are not formal opinions of, nor binding on, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Data Inquiries: please contact [email protected] Press Inquiries: please contact Media Relations at http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/ First Glance 12L: http://www.frbsf.org/banking/publications/first-glance-12l/ Financial Performance of Banks in the 12th Federal Reserve District (“12L”)

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Page 1: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

First Glance 12L (3Q15)

Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown AbroadNovember 23, 2015

Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis, Kenneth Wang

Editors: Cynthia Course, David Doyle, Alex Lightfoot, Bronwen Macro, Gary Palmer, Daniel Phillips, Mark Snyder, Wally Young

This report is based upon preliminary data from 3Q2015 and prior Condition & Income Reports as well as other examination andeconomic sources. Data has been prepared primarily for bank supervisors and bankers. The opinions expressed in this publication arethose of the authors. Opinions are intended only for informational purposes, and are not formal opinions of, nor binding on, the FederalReserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Data Inquiries: please contact [email protected] Inquiries: please contact Media Relations at http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/

First Glance 12L: http://www.frbsf.org/banking/publications/first-glance-12l/

Financial Performance of Banks in the 12th Federal Reserve District (“12L”)

Page 2: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

Table of ContentsHighlights: 12th District Overview and Hot Topics 3 – 6

Section 1: Economic ConditionsDistrict Remained Strong; Some Slowing Abroad 7 – 15

Section 2: Commercial Bank Performance

EarningsOverhead Ratio Declines Led Improvement; Margins Still Weak

Provisions and Loan Loss ReservesHalf of Banks Still Reported No or Negative Provisions

Loan Growth and UnderwritingGrowth Outpaced the Nation; Signs of Modest Tightening in Pockets

Credit QualityDelinquencies and Losses Very Low; Drought Impacts Limited

Liquidity and Interest Rate RiskNon-Maturity Deposit Reliance Increased; Assets Lengthened Further

CapitalStill Strong with Modest Slippage Among Risk-Based Measures

16

17 – 22

23 – 24

25 – 29

30 – 34

35 – 39

40

Section 3: Commercial Bank Regulatory Ratings and Trends 41 – 45

Appendix 1/2: Summary of Institutions / Technical Information 46 – 47

Page 3: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

1-Year Sep-15

NV 6.7

AK 6.4

AZ 6.3

OR 6.2

CA 5.9

WA 5.2

ID 4.2

UT 3.6

HI 3.4

Nation 5.1

Seasonally-AdjustedUnemployment Rate (%)

12th District year-over-year job growth continued at a healthy clip of nearly 3.0%, outpacing thenational rate of 2.0%. As a result, the District’s aggregate unemployment rate improved to 5.7% bySeptember 2015, down from a year-earlier figure of 6.8%, but still above a nationwide rate of 5.1%.State-level joblessness lingered above 6.0% in Nevada, Alaska, Arizona, and Oregon, worseningrecently in the latter two states (see table at right). California and Washington reportedunemployment rates towards the middle of the pack with California’s unemployment rate dippingbelow 6.0% for the first time since November 2011. Jobless rates in Idaho and Utah were low butmay have bottomed out, and remained low and declining in Hawaii.

Demand for residential and commercial real estate remained strong. Home prices increased in theupper-single digits year-over-year in most District states. Appreciation rates accelerated in thePacific Northwest and Mountain states especially. Price traction stimulated additional residentialconstruction. Commercial real estate (CRE) vacancies and rents remained stable-to-improving.Foreign capital and ample credit availability kept capitalization rates low and buoyed commercialproperty values. Still, current and expected commercial construction could weigh on vacanciesand/or rents in some sectors and markets.

Global trade challenges continued in the third quarter. Economic weakness abroad and dollarstrength vis-à-vis trade partners’ currencies weighed mildly on net exports and trimmed 3 basispoints from third quarter growth in gross domestic product (seasonally-adjusted annual rate). Duringthe third quarter, the aggregate value of 12th District exports declined 2.5% year-over-year.

12th District Overview“Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad”

3.64% 3.25%

0.66%0.06%

1.16% 0.82%

3.62%3.13%

0.63%0.04%

1.31% 0.89%

0.00%1.00%

2.00%3.00%4.00%

Net InterestIncome (TE)

NoninterestExpense

NoninterestIncome

ProvisionExpense

Pretax NetIncome

Net Income

Sep-14 Sep-15

Average* Year-to-Date Annualized, % of Average Assets - 12th District

3FRB-SF *Trimmed Means

Page 4: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

% of Banks with Component or Composite Rating 3, 4, 5

Bank earnings performance strengthened modestly. The District’s average year-to-dateannualized return on average assets (ROAA) increased to 0.89%, up 6 basis points year-over-year, led by continued declines in overhead ratios and historically low provisionexpenses (see chart, prior page). On a quarterly basis, the average net interest margindipped 2 basis points after having a small seasonal lift in second quarter.

Loan growth and performance indicators continued to improve. The average 1-year netloan growth rate accelerated to 12.3% districtwide, with each of the District’s statesexceeding a national average growth rate of 7.2%. As with prior quarters, construction andland development (C&LD) and multifamily were often the fastest-growing credit segmentsat community banks, but larger loan categories (such as nonfarm-nonresidential andcommercial and industrial) accounted for most loan growth in dollar terms. Meanwhile, thelevel of problem loans compared favorably to the nation (see chart at left) and credit losseswere at historically low levels.

According to the Federal Reserve’s October 2015 Senior Loan Officer Survey, a small netfraction of lenders tightened standards modestly across commercial-related loan categoriesduring the quarter. There was a notable shift in standards among commercial and industrial(C&I) loans to mid- to large-sized firms. For those borrowers, lenders reported sometightening of premiums on riskier loans, primarily in response to a less favorable economicoutlook, industry-specific problems, and/or decreased liquidity in the secondary market.However, C&I loan size, maturity, pricing, and collateral requirements were somewhatlooser on net.

Banks remained somewhat vulnerable to rising short-term interest rates, in particular ifaccompanied by a flattening yield curve. Compared with the last rate tightening cycle(2004-2006), banks reported higher exposures to longer-dated loans and securities,potentially delaying asset repricing. Meanwhile, non-maturity deposits remained elevated.Although this funding source was relatively cheap, depositors in these categories maydisintermediate or shift to pricier time deposit products as rates rise.

Safety and soundness and consumer compliance ratings trends reflected the overallimprovement in bank financial performance. Roughly 82% of District banks were ratedsatisfactory or strong for safety and soundness (see chart at left); 97% or more were ratedsatisfactory or better for consumer compliance and/or community reinvestment.

12th District Overview, Continued

Average* Nonperforming Assets / Total Assets (%)

0.69

%

0.65

%

0.65

%

0.68

%

0.85

%0.00%

0.40%

0.80%

1.20%

12thDist.Small

(<$10B)

12thDist.Mid-

Sized($10-$50B)

NationLarge

(>$50B)

12thDist.Total

NationTotal

Sep-14 Jun-15 Sep-15

4

17.6%

10.0%

10.6%

32.4%

20.0%

16.4%

11.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Composite

Sensitivity

Liquidity

Earnings

Management

Asset Quality

Capital

Nation12th Dist.

*Trimmed Means

FRB-SF

Page 5: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

The following have been identified as areas of High or Elevated concern among 12th

District-based, Federal Reserve-supervised institutions:

• Cyberthreats. Attacks continue to evolve in both complexity and frequency andexpose institutions to operational, reputational, legal, and compliance risks. Forinstitutions outsourcing core banking operations and/or security administration,vendor management programs remain critical to managing and mitigatingcyberthreats. Inherent risks increase with system complexity.

• Bank Secrecy Act (BSA)/Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance. Although most banks in the District have satisfactory BSA compliance programs, the District’s geographic, demographic, and political characteristics, coupled with the institutional mix, continue to make BSA/AML a significant “hot topic”. BSA/AML-related criticisms noted at bank examinations most often relate to internal controls (e.g., institutional risk assessments, customer due diligence—including customer risk assessments, and suspicious activity monitoring programs). Concerns related to scarce compliance resources and ineffective independent tests are also emerging as examination themes.

• Quality of loan growth. The District’s average annual net loan growth has outpacedthe nation’s for several years (see chart at right). While the expanding economy haslikely fueled much of the growth, various banker surveys suggest some relaxation ofunderwriting standards and potentially aggressive loan pricing. Prior credit cycleshave proven that the worst loans are underwritten during the best economic times.

• Lengthening asset maturities. In part because of the steep yield curve, institutionshave increased their holdings of longer-dated assets over the past few years (seechart at right). In a rising interest rate environment, higher concentrations in longer-dated assets could delay asset repricing and margin expansion and/or lead to mis-matches in rate-sensitive assets and liabilities if not appropriately managed.

Hot Topics: Areas We are Monitoring Most Closely

Avg. Loans & Securities Repricing > 3 Yrs. / Assets*

FRB-SF 5*Trimmed means.

Avg. Year-Over-YearNet Loan Growth (%)*

12.3%

7.2%

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

12th Dist. Nation

27%

43%

31%

46%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Sep-01

Sep-08

Sep-15

12th Dist. Nation

Page 6: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

Additionally, these areas pose “Moderate” but increasing concern:• Nonmaturity Deposit (NMD) reliance. NMDs (traditionally viewed as “core” deposits) have

become an increasingly important source of funding for most institutions. While these productshave proven inexpensive in the current low-rate environment, there is a concern that asignificant amount of these funds may disintermediate or transition to higher-cost depositproducts in a rising interest rate environment. During the last rate tightening cycle (2004-2006),the mix of bank funding shifted away from NMDs and towards higher-cost time deposits andborrowings.

• Overhead expense ratios. Asset growth has led to some economies of scale and improvedefficiency ratios have helped boost profitability. Still, some banks may not be devoting resourcesto back-office operations, internal controls, and compliance programs commensurate with theirincreasing size and complexity (see chart below).

• Commercial real estate (CRE) lending concentrations. Concentrations of CRE loans (i.e.,nonfarm-nonresidential, multifamily, construction, and CRE-purpose loans) relative to capitalhave declined from pre-crisis peaks, especially for construction and land development (C&LD)credits. Nonetheless, average concentrations in most District states exceeded the nation’s andgrowth in some CRE-related categories, such as multifamily, have been relatively strong insome parts of the District (see table at right). During the Financial Crisis, high CRE exposures,especially C&LD, led to severe credit problems and bank failures. The increasing pipeline of newcommercial construction and rising interest rates may hamper debt service coverage ratios onvariable-rate commercial mortgages, and pressure capitalization rates.

$4.7

$5.7

$4.0$4.6

$3.0$3.5$4.0$4.5$5.0$5.5$6.0

Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15

12th District Nation

Avg. Assets per Employee ($ Millions)*

6*Trimmed Means; **excludescredit card and zero-loan banks.

5-Years Sep-15

AK 9.2

AZ 17.5

CA 33.5

HI 26.7

ID 10.7

NV** 17.4

OR 37.1

UT 9.5

WA 32.0

Nation 12.1

Avg. Multifamily Loans/ Total Capital (%)*

Hot Topics: Areas We are Monitoring Most Closely

FRB-SF

Page 7: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

7

Fundamentals:

Job Growth

Housing Market Metrics

Commercial Real Estate Market Conditions

Global Developments & Currencies

Section 1 - Economic Conditions

Page 8: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

8

3.6%

-1.7%

3.1%

-6.7%

3.0%2.8%

2.1%

-4.9%

2.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Sep-

95

Sep-

96

Sep-

97

Sep-

98

Sep-

99

Sep-

00

Sep-

01

Sep-

02

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

District Nation

Year-Over-Year Nonfarm Job Growth

Based on average nonfarm payroll levels over trailing three months; Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.

District Job Growth Held at a Steady, Strong Pace

FRB-SF

9

Home Price Appreciation Accelerated in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain States, but Slowed in California

Source: Core Logic (for market level data maps, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/home-price-index/)

Year-Over-Year % Change in Home Prices

FRB-SF

2.3%

5.5%5.8% 6.1%

6.8% 7.1%

8.9% 9.1%

10.0%

6.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

AK AZ ID CA UT HI NV OR WA Nation

Sep-14 Jun-15 Sep-15

449

103

161

85

17

107

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sep-

94

Sep-

95

Sep-

96

Sep-

97

Sep-

98

Sep-

99

Sep-

00

Sep-

01

Sep-

02

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

Single Family 2+ Family

10

Average Trailing 12-Mo. Housing Starts - West (Thousands Of Units, SAAR)

SAAR=seasonally adjusted annual rate; West=12th District plus CO, MT, NM, and WY; Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

Housing Starts in the West Climbed Higher, but Single-Family Construction Remained Well Below Historical Average

FRB-SF

11

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Sep-

00Se

p-01

Sep-

02Se

p-03

Sep-

04Se

p-05

Sep-

06Se

p-07

Sep-

08Se

p-09

Sep-

10Se

p-11

Sep-

12Se

p-13

Sep-

14Se

p-15

Nation—Apartments: 120Nation—Office: 112Nation—Retail: 106Nation—Industrial: 101

Commercial Real Estate Prices (Indexed, 2Q 2007 = 100)

Underlying properties are institutionally held, mainly investment-grade; Source: NCREIF CRE Transaction-Based Price Indices

Commercial Real Estate Prices Fully Recovered to Pre-Crisis Peaks; Apartment Resurgence Especially Strong

FRB-SF

Improving job markets, ample credit availability, and strong foreign and domestic capital flows have pushed property prices higher. Should supply-demand imbalances develop or investor/lender preferences shift, capitalization rates may rise, pressuring property values.

Page 9: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

13.0

%

7.1%

10.1

%

4.3%

12.8

%

7.2% 8.

4%

4.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Sep-

13Se

p-14

Sep-

15Se

p-16

Sep-

17

Sep-

13Se

p-14

Sep-

15Se

p-16

Sep-

17

Sep-

13Se

p-14

Sep-

15Se

p-16

Sep-

17

Sep-

13Se

p-14

Sep-

15Se

p-16

Sep-

17

Office Industrial Retail Apartment

Actual Forecast

Vacancy or Availability Rate – 12th District

12

According to Third-Party Forecasts, Vacancy Rates May Drift Higher in Apartment and Industrial Properties

FRB-SF

Based on aggregates across 15-16 large metropolitan areas; apartment data based upon number of units; other property types based upon square footage; Source: CBRE-Econometric Advisors

-15.0%

-12.0%

-9.0%

-6.0%

-3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

Sep-

02

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

Sep-

16

13

Average Annual Rent Growth – 12th District

FRB-SF

Third-Party Forecasts Suggest Rent Growth in the District’s Major Markets May Moderate for All But Retail Properties

Office

Industrial

RetailApartment

Annual 12 month rolling rent average across 15-16 large metropolitan areas; Source: CBRE-Econometric Advisors

Forecast

13%

18%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

US$ vs. OITP Currencies

US$ vs. Major Currencies

-2.5%

14

Major: Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden; OITP (Other Important Trading Partners): Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia; export data based on origin of movement series; GSP =Gross State Product; Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Federal Reserve, and WISER Trade via Haver Analytics

Year-Over-Year Change

12th District Export Volumes Dipped in Response to a Continued Strong U.S. Dollar and Economic Slowing Abroad

FRB-SF

Exports from12th Dist. States

AK 9.0% -8.0%AZ 7.4% 6.3%CA 7.4% -3.6%HI 1.9% 85.6%ID 8.0% -11.1%NV 5.8% 16.5%OR 9.7% -6.7%UT 8.6% 12.4%WA 21.2% -5.6%

Nation 9.3% -7.9%

StateExports/

GSP (2014)

Yr/Yr % Change in

Exports (3Q15)

Export Activtyby State

7.3%

3.3%

2.1% 2.

4%

-0.1

%

6.8%

2.7%

2.3%

1.0%

0.6%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

China South Korea Mexico Canda Japan

Actual Forecast

Annual Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

15

Economic Slowing or Weakness Among Several Key Trade Partners Has Weighed on 12th District Export Activity

FRB-SF

GDP figures based on constant prices. Data for 2015 and 2016 are projections by International Monetary Fund; trade shares are based on 2014 figures; Sources: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Database (October 2015), US Census Bureau: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services

China 31% 14%

S. Korea 10% 11%

Canada 10% 11%

Japan 10% 7%

Mexico 4% 4%

Country

Share of 12th

Dist. Imports

Share of 12th

Dist. Exports

Top 5 12th DistrictTrade Partners

Page 10: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

16

Earnings

Provisions and Loan Loss Reserves

Loan Growth and Underwriting

Credit Quality

Drought Risk and Impacts

Liquidity and Interest Rate Risk

Capital

See also “Banks at a Glance,” Bank Profiles by State:http://www.frbsf.org/banking/publications/banks-at-a-glance/

Section 2 Commercial Bank Performance

Note: Bank size groups are defined as small (<$10B), mid-sized ($10B-$50B), and large (>$50B) banks. The large bank group covers nationwide banks (a larger statistical population), while the other two groups cover 12th District banks.

Page 11: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

17

2.13%

-1.20%

1.17% 1.16%

1.31%1.58%

0.59%

1.20% 1.23%1.27%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

District

Nation

Earnings: Average District Pretax ROAA Outpaced Prior Year and National Levels but Still Trailed Pre-Crisis Performance

FRB-SF

Annualized Pretax Return on Average Assets (ROAA) (TE)

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; year-to-date annualized trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; for comparability, Pretax ROAAs are adjusted on a tax-equivalent (TE) basis to assume taxes are paid on income from tax-free municipal loans and securities 18

1.85%

1.48%1.34% 1.31% 1.29% 1.28%

1.13% 1.10% 1.04%

1.31% 1.27%

0.00%

0.30%

0.60%

0.90%

1.20%

1.50%

1.80%

UT AK CA NV* OR HI AZ ID WA 12thDist.

Nation

Sep-14 Sep-15

Annualized Pretax Return on Average Assets (ROAA) (TE) by State

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; year-to-date annualized trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; for comparability, Pretax ROAAs are adjusted on a tax-equivalent (TE) basis to assume taxes are paid on income from tax-free municipal loans and securities; *NV: excludes credit card and zero-loan banks

Earnings Improved Among All States in the District

FRB-SF

Year-to-Date Net Interest Income Margins Slightly Trailed 2014

19

5.08% 5.21%

3.87% 3.86% 3.85%4.33% 4.26%

3.76% 3.75% 3.74%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

Dec

-01

Dec

-02

Dec

-03

Dec

-04

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

District

Nation

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; year-to-date annualized trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; for comparability, net interest income is adjusted on a tax-equivalent (TE) basis to assume taxes are paid on income from tax-free municipal loans and securities

Net Interest Income (TE) / Average Earning Assets

FRB-SF

Quarterly Yields and Margins Remained Well Below Historical Norm With Slight Seasonal Fluctuations

Based on 12th District commercial banks, excluding De Novos; quarterly annualized trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; data are presented on a tax-equivalent (TE) basis; average 3-month constant maturity U.S. Treasury Rate from Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics

5.8%

8.0%

4.2%

4.8% 5.0%

3.9%

1.0%

3.0%

0.3%0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Sep-

01

Sep-

02

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

Avg. 3-Month U.S. Treasury Rate Interest Income / Avg. Earn. Assets Net Interest Income / Avg. Earn. Assets Interest Expense / Avg. Earn. Assets

Avg. Quarterly Annualized Rate (%)– 12th District

20

FRB-SF

Page 12: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

0.77%

0.66%0.63%0.73%

0.60%0.60%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Sep

-14

Sep

-15

District

Nation

Declines during the crisis were partially due to net

losses on the sale of foreclosed real estate

21Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; year-to-date annualized trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data

Noninterest Income / Average Assets

Noninterest Income Ratios Slipped; Lower Noninterest Expense Ratios Drove Earnings Improvement at Most Banks

FRB-SF

3.35%

3.53%

3.25%

3.13%

3.01%

3.09%

2.88%2.84%

2.70%

2.80%

2.90%

3.00%

3.10%

3.20%

3.30%

3.40%

3.50%

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Sep

-14

Sep

-15

District

Nation

Noninterest Expense / Average Assets

FRB-SF

Noninterest Expense Growth Has Been Contained; But Are Internal Controls Keeping Pace with Growth?

Based on 12th District commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; FTE = full-time equivalent

6.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Sep

-05

Sep

-06

Sep

-07

Sep

-08

Sep

-09

Sep

-10

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Sep

-15

Total Assets Total Nonint. Expense

Year-Over-Year Growth – 12th District

10.3%

22

FRB-SF

80

100

120

140

160

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Sep

-05

Sep

-06

Sep

-07

Sep

-08

Sep

-09

Sep

-10

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Sep

-15

Avg. Assets (Left, $ Mils) Avg. FTE Staff (Right, #)

Avg. Staff & Assets – 12th District

FRB-SF

25%31% 30%

21%17% 20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Sep

-14

Sep

-15

Negative Zero

Percent of 12th District Banks with Year-to-Date Provision Expense of:

23Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; year-to-date; preliminary 9/30/15 data; *Nevada excludes credit card and zero-loan banks

Loan Loss Reserves: Half of District Banks Avoided Provisions or Released Reserves Versus One-Third Nationally

FRB-SF

AK 50% 25%

AZ 29% 39%

CA 51% 51%

HI 83% 80%

ID 42% 64%

NV* 50% 73%

OR 56% 50%

UT 45% 37%

WA 44% 50%

Nation 34% 33%

State Sep-15 Sep-15

% of Banks with YTD Zero or

Negative Provision Expenses

1.5%1.3%

2.6%

1.6%

3.6X

7.1X

0.6X

3.4X

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

1.6%

2.0%

2.4%

2.8%

Sep

-03

Sep

-04

Sep

-05

Sep

-06

Sep

-07

Sep

-08

Sep

-09

Sep

-10

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Sep

-15

ALLL / Loans not HFS (Left) ALLL / Noncurrent Loans (Right)

24Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; ALLL = allowance for loan and lease losses; HFS = held for sale

ALLL / Total Loans not HFS (%)

Low Provisioning and Strong Loan Growth ReducedALLL-to-Loan Ratios

FRB-SF

ALLL / Noncurrent Loans (X)

Page 13: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

25

12.3%9.5%

-2.5%

7.2%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Sep-

02

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

District Nation

18.6%

-6.5%

Year-Over-Year Average Net Loan Growth

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means (not merger adjusted); preliminary 9/30/15 data

Loan Growth: District Loan Growth AcceleratedWhile National Loan Growth Flattened

FRB-SF

26

14.4

%

11.9

%

11.0

%

10.6

%

10.4

%

9.9%

8.6%

8.1%

8.1%

12.3

%

7.2%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

CA UT AZ NV* OR ID WA AK HI 12thDist.

Nation

Sep-14 Jun-15 Sep-15

Year-Over-Year Average Net Loan Growth by State

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means (not merger adjusted); preliminary 9/30/15 data; *NV: excludes credit card and zero-loan banks

Average Net Loan Growth Continued toOutpace the National Average in All District States

FRB-SF

27

Multifamily, C&LD, and Specialty Segment Growth Rates Were High but Were Not Primary Drivers of Overall Loan Growth

Based on a panel of commercial banks, excluding De Novos and banks with extreme growth (likely merger-related); preliminary 9/30/15 data; *includes leases as well as loans collateralized by securities (margin loans), loans extended to governments and to depository and non-depository institutions, and all other

FRB-SFFRB-SF Banks < $10 Billion Banks $10-$200 Billion

Segment Level Year-Over-Year

Growth Rate

% Point Contribution

toLoan

Growth% of Total

Loans

Segment Level Year-Over-Year

Growth Rate

% Point Contribution

toLoan

Growth% of Total

LoansNonfarm Nonresidential 11.0% 4.4% 39.7% 4.9% 0.9% 17.4%Commercial & Industrial 10.0% 1.7% 17.0% 6.1% 1.4% 21.8%Consumer Loans 13.8% 1.5% 11.2% 17.3% 2.4% 15.2%Closed-End 1-4 First Liens 11.4% 1.3% 11.5% 3.9% 1.0% 23.5%Multifamily 21.0% 1.3% 6.5% 5.6% 0.3% 5.2%Construction & Land Dev. 22.3% 1.0% 4.7% 22.7% 0.6% 2.9%Other Loans* 14.5% 0.3% 2.4% 12.4% 0.9% 7.2%Agricultural and Farmland 12.3% 0.4% 3.4% 8.7% 0.2% 2.7%HELOC + Closed-End 1-4 Jr. Liens 5.0% 0.2% 3.7% 6.5% 0.3% 4.1%

Total Loans 12.2% 8.0%

Composition of Aggregate Loan Growth - 12th District Banks

Loan Segment

FRB‐SF

(20%)(15%)(10%)(5%)

0%5%

10%15%20%25%

Apr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5

Apr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5

Apr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5

Apr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5

Comm'l. &Indust.

CommercialReal Estate (CRE)

1-4 FamilyMortgages*

Consumer

Small Borrowers

Non-Traditional/Non QM-Jumbo*

Nonfarm-Nonresid.

Multifamily C&LD

Large Borrowers Credit CardPrime/GSE

Eligible*

Auto

Net Percentage Reporting Tightening (Loosening) Standards During 3 Mos.

28

On Net, Lenders Reported Modest Tightening of Standards on Commercial & Industrial and Commercial Real Estate Loans

FRB-SFBased on a sample of loan officers at 70+/- domestic banks (number varies by period and loan type); *beginning January 2015, two categories were replaced with six based on GSE eligibility, qualifying mortgage (QM) status, and size (making comparisons imperfect); C&LD = construction and land development; Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/snloansurvey/)

Page 14: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

*Supervisory commercial real estate (CRE) thresholds include construction and land development loans (C&LD)=> 100% of total capital or total CRE loans=>300% of total capital and total CRE loan growth of=>50% during the prior 3 years. Total CRE loans include C&LD, multifamily, owner-occupied nonfarm-nonresidential mortgages and CRE purpose loans not secured by real estate. 29

Percentage of Banks Exceeding Supervisory Commercial Real Estate Concentration Thresholds* Ticked Up

FRB-SF

58%

7%

15%

31%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

District

Nation

Percentage Exceeding Supervisory CRE Concentration Thresholds*

FRB-SF

30Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; nonperforming assets = loans 90+ days past due or on nonaccrual plus other real estate owned

5.8%

38.9%

5.4%

6.3%

19.0%

7.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Sep-

02

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

District

Nation

Credit Quality: Nonperforming Assets Dipped FurtherRelative to Capital and Reserves

Average Texas Ratio (%)

Bank Size Sep-2009

Sep-2015

District Small(<$10B) 39.7% 5.5%

District Mid-Sized

($10B-$50B)31.2% 5.0%

Nation Large(>$50B) 19.7% 4.9%

FRB-SF

Problem assets relative to capital and reserves are again well-below the national average.

Nonperforming Assets / Capital + ALLL (a/k/a “Texas Ratio”)

31

11.4

%

7.7%

7.5%

6.7%

6.7%

5.5%

4.4%

4.0%

3.2%

5.4%

7.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

AZ ID WA UT NV* OR AK CA HI 12thDist.

Nation

Sep-14 Sep-15

Nonperforming Assets / Capital + ALLL (a/k/a “Texas Ratio”) by State

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; *NV: excludes credit card and zero-loan banks; nonperforming assets = loans 90+ days past due or on nonaccrual plus other real estate owned

Average Texas Ratios in Arizona, Idaho, and Washington Continued to Exceed the National Average

FRB-SF

While California, Nevada, and So. Oregon have been grappling with dry conditions for awhile, drought in much of the Pacific Northwest has intensified in the past 12 months.

32Sources: U.S. Drought Monitor (Nat’l. Drought Mitigation Center at the Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln/U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-NOAA), as of November 3, 2015

Extreme Drought Remained Ongoing in Several States; Severe Drought More Recent in Parts of Pacific Northwest

FRB-SF

DroughtMagnitude

1- AbnormallyDry

2 - Moderate Drought

3 - Severe Drought

4 - Extreme Drought

5 - ExceptionalDrought

1-Year Change in Drought

Classification Level

Downgraded 5

Downgraded 4

Downgraded 3

Downgraded 2

Downgraded 1

No Change

Improved 1

Improved 2

Improved 3

Improved 4

Improved 5

1-Year ChangeNovember 3, 2015

Page 15: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

CA Drought/Ag Banks* All CA Banks**FRB-SF

33

Loans Past-Due 30+ Days or Nonaccrual, %

California’s More Drought and/or Agriculture-Exposed Banks* Reported Declining Delinquencies, but Worsening Earnings

0.60%

0.65%

0.70%

0.75%

0.80%

0.85%

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

Year-to-Date Net Income / Avg. Assets, %

*Includes 43 California-based banks with at least 25% of deposits from counties in the San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Valley, or other top agricultural producing areas (i.e., Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Imperial, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Monterey, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Solano, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Ventura, Yolo, and/or Yuba counties); **based on all California-based commercial banks excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; CRE = nonfarm-nonresidential + multifamily + construction; ORE = other real estate owned

Ag.-Related Loans / Total Capital

44.0% 7.8%

CRE Loans / Total Capital 310.3% 358.1%

1-Year Asset Growth 10.4% 12.5%

Noncurrent Lns. + ORE / Lns. + ORE

1.1% 0.8%

Ratio

CA Drought/

Ag Banks*

All CA Banks**

Comparative Statistics

Overhead ratios declined but not enough to offset

net interest margin compression

34

0.06%

2.15%

0.18%0.06% 0.06%

0.01%

0.72%

0.00%

0.40%

0.80%

1.20%

1.60%

2.00%

2.40%

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

District

Nation

Net Chargeoffs / Average Loans and Leases

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; year-to-date annualized trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; *Nevada excludes credit card and zero-loan banks

Average District Net Chargeoff Rate Was Near Zero; Banks in California and Arizona Reported Net Recoveries

FRB-SF

AK -0.02% 0.03%

AZ 0.53% 0.00%

CA 0.01% -0.02%

HI 0.00% 0.03%

ID 0.09% 0.01%

NV* 0.08% 0.09%

OR 0.04% 0.01%

UT 0.16% 0.12%

WA 0.12% 0.03%

Nation 0.11% 0.08%

State Sep-14 Sep-15

Average NetChargeoff Rate

by State

69%

77%

64%

67%

64%

67%

63%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

Sep-

04Se

p-05

Sep-

06Se

p-07

Sep-

08Se

p-09

Sep-

10Se

p-11

Sep-

12Se

p-13

Sep-

14Se

p-15

District Nation

FRB-SF

35

Net Loans and Leases / Assets

Liquidity: Net Loans Increased as a Share of Assets;Short-Term Investments Held Steady

7%

5%

13%12%

5%

5%

9%

7%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Sep-

04Se

p-05

Sep-

06Se

p-07

Sep-

08Se

p-09

Sep-

10Se

p-11

Sep-

12Se

p-13

Sep-

14Se

p-15

District Nation

Short-Term Investments / Assets

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; Short-Term Investments: interest-bearing bank balances, Federal funds sold & securities purchased under agreements to resell, and <1-year debt securities

12%

25%

6%2%

-4%

11%

20%

12%

2%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

District >$100K District >$250K Nation >$100K Nation >$250K

Net Noncore Funds Dependence Ratio

36

Net noncore funding ratio turns negative if CDs between $100K and $250K are excluded.

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; *Net noncore funding is sum of borrowed funds, foreign and brokered deposits, large CDs (previously defined as > $100K—green bars, now defined as > $250K—blue bars) less short-term investments divided by long-term assets

Average Net NoncoreFunds Dependence

by Bank Size (Using CDs > $100K)

Bank Size Sep-2014

Sep-2015

District Small(<$10B) 7.0% 5.6%

District Mid-Sized

($10B-$50B)16.0% 11.6%

Nation Large(>$50B) 14.3% 17.1%

Reliance on Noncore Funding Remained Moderate,Especially Among Small Banks

FRB-SF

Page 16: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

Interest Rate Risk: Long-Term Interest Rates May Not Risein Lockstep with Short Term Rates (a la 2004-2006)

*Constant maturity basis; Sources: Federal Reserve and National Bureau of Economic Research via HaverAnalytics 37

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Sep-

88

Sep-

91

Sep-

94

Sep-

97

Sep-

00

Sep-

03

Sep-

06

Sep-

09

Sep-

12

Sep-

15

Recession 3-Month Bill 10-Year Bond

End-of-Period U.S. Treasury Yields*, Annualized (%)

FRB-SF

The current steep yield curve has provided financial incentive to fund short-term and lend long-term. All else equal, a flattening yield curve could pressure net interest margins among banks that have developed significant re-pricing imbalances. During the last major rate tightening cycle (2004-2006), many banks increased concentrations in short-term, high-yielding C&LD loans to help offset rising funding costs. However, that increased credit risk, especially during the subsequent recession.

Current Yield

curve is relatively

steep

Inverted yield curve typically precedes

recessions

The Recent Dip in Long-Term Interest Rates BuoyedInvestment Portfolio Values and AOCI

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; accumulated other comprehensive income* is comprised mainly of net unrealized gains and losses on available-for-salesecurities; Constant Maturity (CM) Treasury Rate from Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics

-1.59%

1.53%

0.31%

5.15%

1.65%

2.06%

1.00%

1.60%

2.20%

2.80%

3.40%

4.00%

4.60%

5.20%

5.80%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

Sep-

04M

ar-0

5Se

p-05

Mar

-06

Sep-

06M

ar-0

7Se

p-07

Mar

-08

Sep-

08M

ar-0

9Se

p-09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10M

ar-1

1Se

p-11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12M

ar-1

3Se

p-13

Mar

-14

Sep-

14M

ar-1

5Se

p-15

AOCI (Left Axis) 10-Yr. UST Rate (Right Axis)

Accumulated Other ComprehensiveIncome (AOCI)* / Tier 1 Cap. – 12th District

End-of-Period 10-YearU.S. CM Treasury Rate

38

FRB-SF

Non-Maturity DepositsCould Ebb as Rates Rise (as in 2004-2006)

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; non-maturity includes demand, money market, and savings; Constant Maturity (CM) Treasury Rate from Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics 39

0.93%

5.12%

0.04%0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Sep-

02

Sep-

03

Sep-

04

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

Non-Maturity Deposits (Left Axis)

3-Mo. UST Rate (Right Axis)

56%

42%

65%

Non-Maturity Deposits / Total Assets12th District Banks

Qtly. Avg. 3-Month U.S. CM Treasury Rate

FRB-SF

Based on commercial banks, excluding De Novos; trimmed means; preliminary 9/30/15 data; new risk-based capital reporting became effective March 2014 for advanced approach adopters and March 2015 for others 40

13.5%

15.9%

12.3%

14.7%

9.8%

11.0%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Sep-

05

Sep-

06

Sep-

07

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

Total Risk-Based

Tier 1 Risk-Based

Tier 1 Leverage

Average Regulatory Capital Ratios – 12th District

Risk-Based Capital Ratios Eased as Assets Shifted andBasel III’s Higher Risk-Weight Buckets Were Implemented

FRB-SF

Average TotalRisk-Based Capital

Ratiosby Bank Size

Bank Size Sep-2014

Sep-2015

District Small

(<$10B)16.8% 16.0%

District Mid-Sized

($10B-$50B)

15.3% 14.3%

Nation Large

(>$50B)14.8% 14.1%

Page 17: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

41

Section 3 – Regulatory Ratings and Trends

Focusing on trends in examination (CAMELS) ratings

assigned by regulatory agencies among commercial

banks headquartered within the

12th Federal Reserve District.

Page 18: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

12%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

Sep-

14

Mar

-15

Sep-

15

% Upgrades

% Downgrades

42

Percent of 12th District Exams that Resulted in CAMELS Composite Rating Upgrade or Downgrade (downgrades shown as negative percentages)

Includes any change in composite CAMELS rating for commercial banks; quarterly data based on examination completion dates (mail dates); preliminary third quarter 2015 data updated through 11/16/15

Regulatory Ratings: Upgrades Continued to Outpace Downgrades in Third Quarter

FRB-SF

60%

3%

24%

32%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sep-

91Se

p-92

Sep-

93Se

p-94

Sep-

95Se

p-96

Sep-

97Se

p-98

Sep-

99Se

p-00

Sep-

01Se

p-02

Sep-

03Se

p-04

Sep-

05Se

p-06

Sep-

07Se

p-08

Sep-

09Se

p-10

Sep-

11Se

p-12

Sep-

13Se

p-14

Sep-

15

12th Dist. - Composite "3"

12th Dist. - Composite "4"

12th Dist. - Composite "5"

Nation - Composite "3", "4", "5"

61%

18%

39%

Share of Banks Rated Composite 3, 4, or 5

43Trends for all commercial banks based on examination completion dates (mail dates); preliminary third quarter 2015 data updated through 11/16/15

FRB-SF

The Share of District Banks with CAMELS CompositeRatings of 3, 4, or 5 Moderated Further

2.7

2.0

3.2

2.1

3.4

2.42.32.5

1.8

2.9

2.2

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Sep-

07

Mar

-08

Sep-

08

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar

-12

Sep-

12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13

Mar

-14

Sep-

14

Mar

-15

Sep-

15

Average CAMELS Component Ratings for 12th District Banks (1: strong; 2: satisfactory; 3-5: less-than-satisfactory)

Recession

Earnings

Asset QualityCapitalSensitivity*Liquidity

Earnings and Management often garnered weaker ratings compared with other component areas—even before the Financial Crisis

44Trends for all commercial banks based on examination completion dates (mail dates); preliminary third quarter 2015 data updated through 11/16/15; *Sensitivity to Market Risk

Earnings and Management Remained Weakest Components

FRB-SF

Management

45Trends for all commercial banks based on examination completion dates (mail dates); CRA = Community Reinvestment Act; preliminary third quarter 2015 data updated through 11/16/15

27%

13%

3%

14%

2%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-

91

Sep-

93

Sep-

95

Sep-

97

Sep-

99

Sep-

01

Sep-

03

Sep-

05

Sep-

07

Sep-

09

Sep-

11

Sep-

13

Sep-

15

Percent of 12th District Banks with Less-than-Satisfactory Ratings

Consumer

CRA

Consumer Compliance Ratings Improved WhileWhile CRA Ratings Remained Steady

FRB-SF

Page 19: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

1. Summary of Institutions

2. Technical Information

Appendices

46

Page 20: First Glance 12L (3Q15) · First Glance 12L (3Q15) Banking Conditions Improved Despite Slowdown Abroad November 23, 2015 Authors: Judy Plock, Colin Perez, Martin Karpuk, Michael Nimis,

This report focuses on the financial trends and performance of commercial banks headquartered within the 12th Federal Reserve District (“12L”). 12L includes 9 western states: AK, AZ, CA, HI, ID, NV, OR, UT, and WA, as well as Guam. Industrial banks and savings institutions, which have different operating characteristics, are excluded from graphics (other than the table to the left).

De Novos: Many of the charts exclude “De Novo” banks, or banks less than five years old.

Groups by Asset Size: “Small”, and “Mid-Sized” bank groups are based on 12th District community banks (<$10B) and regional banks ($10B-$50B), respectively. The “Large” bank group is based on nationwide banks with assets >$50B because a larger statistical population was needed to construct trimmed means.

Trimmed Mean (also referred to as “average”): Many of the charts present trends in ratio averages, adjusted for outliers. The method used is to eliminate or “trim” out the highest 10% and the lowest 10% of ratio values and average the remaining values.

Aggregate: In some cases, the trimmed mean method is not appropriate (e.g., when many banks have zero values for a particular ratio or for some growth rates where there may be many highly positive and highly negative values). In these cases, District aggregates sometimes are computed (i.e., summing numerator values across all District banks and dividing by the sum of all denominator values), as opposed to averaging individual bank ratios. When an aggregate is used, it is indicated on the chart.

47

Area Commercial Banks(De Novos)

Industrial Banks

(De Novos)

Savings Institutions (De Novos)

Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-14 Sep-15

AK 4 (0) 4 (0) - - 1 (0) 1 (0)

AZ 21 (0) 18 (0) - - 1 (0) 1 (0)

CA 196 (1) 183 (0) 5 (0) 3 (0) 14 (0) 12 (0)

GU 2 (0) 2 (0) - - 1 (0) 1 (0)

HI 6 (0) 5 (0) 1 (0) 1 (0) 2 (0) 2 (0)

ID 12 (0) 11 (0) - - 1 (0) 1 (0)

NV 12 (0) 12 (0) 4 (0) 4 (0) 2 (0) 2 (0)

OR 25 (0) 22 (0) - - 3 (0) 3 (0)

UT 31 (0) 30 (0) 18 (0) 16 (0) 4 (0) 4 (0)

WA 48 (0) 44 (0) - - 12 (0) 12 (0)

12L 357 (1) 331 (0) 28 (0) 24 (0) 41 (0) 39 (0)

US 5,637 (14) 5,381 (7) 30 (0) 26 (0) 919 (2) 860 (1)

based on preliminary 9/30/15 data.

Appendix 1: Summary of Institutions

Appendix 2: Technical Information