fireline overview ca iso workshop as · verisk insurance solutions | iso air worldwide xactware |...
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Arindam Samanta PhD
FireLine™Overview
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Arindam Samanta PhDDirector, Product Management and Innovation
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The Wildfire Peril
• Fire seasons have grown longer, and the frequency, size,
and severity of wildland fires has increased
• By 2010, the Wildland Urban Interface covers 10% of the
contiguous 48 states and includes approximately 1 in 3
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homes
• The US Forest Service cost for wildfire suppression has
topped $1billion per year for the last 5 years
• In late August 2015, the cost of wildfire suppression
reached a record $243 million in a one week period
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The Wildfire Peril
• One of the costliest catastrophe peril in US
• Over $4 billion in losses during the past 10 years in US
• The record setting 2015 fire season included 68,151
wildfires which burned 10,125,149 acres
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• 2016 Ft. McMurray fire in Alberta, Canada
– The largest insured natural catastrophe in Canadian history
– Entire population of about 90,000 evacuated
– 1,600 buildings destroyed
– Losses of approximately $3.6 billion.
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The Wildfire Peril
$3,000,000,000
$3,500,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$4,500,000,000
California Wildfire Losses
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$0
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's To Date
California Wildfire Losses
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Catastrophe Pricing Challenges
• Non-diversifiable exposure
• Expanded development in CAT prone areas
• Climate change
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• Estimating future losses without data
• Price commensurate with exposure
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FireLine History
Oakland/Berkeley ‘Tunnel Fire’ of 1991 caused about $1.7 billion dollars in insured losses
1993 Fires in Oakland and Orange counties
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1993 Fires in Oakland and Orange counties caused an additional $700 million in insured losses
ISO was approached by several insurers about the possibility of developing improved wildfire hazard rating using satellite imaging techniques
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FireLine backed by diverse expertise
• Multi-disciplinary experts participated in development and involved in ongoing maintenance:
– Forestry/wildland science – PhD scientists
– Remote Sensing – PhD Scientists
– Computer Science – Masters Degrees
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– Computer Science – Masters Degrees
– Insurance – PhD level
– Community fire protection
– State and local authorities – CA Dept. of Forestry
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FireLine Coverage
• Integrates known risk factors
• Objective scoring system
– Numerical scores (0-30)
OR
WA
ID
NVUT CO
MT
WY
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– Numerical scores (0-30)
– Descriptive assessments
(negligible, low, moderate,
high, and extreme)
CA
TX
AZ NMOK
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Wildfire Hazard Assessment
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Identified by the NFPA as critical components for the wildfire hazard rating calculation
Vegetative Fuels Terrain Road Access
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Fuels beyond the property boundaries are essential in wildfire risk assessment
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Special Hazard Interface Area
This picture, taken in November 2003, shows a view of a southern-facing area of San Bernardino. The destroyed properties were located outside traditional wildfire fuels areas, but inside FireLine’s Special Hazard Interface Area.
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Topography
Vegetation
Verisk
TechnologyAnalytics Risk
Assessment
Remote Sensing
Individual FireLine
Scalability
Statewide Wildfire Risk
Leading Science and Technology used in FireLine
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Topography
Road Network
Weather
Sensing Technology
Digital Mapping
Technology
FireLine Score
Wildfire Risk
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FireLine™ has been highlighted by NASA and the USGS
FireLine is highlighted as an outstanding commercial application that uses Landsat data at the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) pre-launch press conference.
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FireLine: California Distribution
8694997
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
Estim
ated Number of Households
Neglible
Low
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State Risk Map State Exposure Distribution
1266006
1664721
1897685
1566710
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
Estim
ated Number of Households
Low
Moderate
High
Extreme
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Summary: Station Fire, CA
FireLine™ Highlights:�Over 100 damaged / destroyed properties
�Percentage of damaged / destroyed properties identified as exposed to the wildfire hazard: 95%
�Percentage of damaged / destroyed
A High Percentage of the Losses Occurred in the Wildland-Urban Interface
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Station Fire, CA, Oct. 2009: Fuels analyzed in FireLine™ are shown in map colors.
�Percentage of damaged / destroyed properties located in the Special Hazard Interface Area: 83%
47%
41%
1%
4%7%
Distribution of FireLine™ Hazard Category
Source: CALFIRE (http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=377)
ExtremeNegligibleLow
Moderate
High
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Summary: Butte Fire, CA (2015)
FireLine™ Highlights:�Almost 600 damaged / destroyed properties
�Percentage of damaged / destroyed properties identified as exposed to the wildfire hazard: 98.6%
�Percentage of damaged / destroyed
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Butte Fire, CA, September 2015: Fuels analyzed in FireLine™ are shown in map colors.
�Percentage of damaged / destroyed properties located in moderate to high/extreme risk areas: 97%
Distribution of FireLine™ Hazard Category
83%
2%
1%
2%12%
ExtremeNegligibleLow
Moderate
High
Source: GEOMAC(http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/outgoing/GeoMAC/current_year_fire_data/California/Butte)
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Thank you for your time!
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Thank you for your time!
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