fire research is about people ... and so is economics
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Fire research is about people ... and so is economics. inFIRE Conference Presentation Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist BERL 01 March 2012. Agenda. introduction question overview of some research examples review. NZFS Commission. statutory duty promote fire safety - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Fire research is about people
... and so is economicsinFIRE Conference Presentation
Dr Ganesh NanaChief Economist
BERL
01 March 2012
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 2
Agenda• introduction• question• overview of some research examples• review
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 3
NZFS Commission• statutory duty
* promote fire safety* better work practices* effective rural fire management
• Contestable Research Fund (CRF)* supports research into better methods and
practices of fire safety
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 4
BERL• independent private business and
economic consultancy• have undertaken CRF research related
to* promoting fire safety* improving NZFS operations* establishing costs of fires
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 5
Research Methods• quantitative
* statistics, regressions, modelling• practical
* interviews, case studies, recommendations• strategic
* review and analysis of public policy, strategies, regulations and legislation
• theoretical* literature reviews, metadata analysis
Is this a useful division for fire research?
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 6
To promote fire safetye.g. alcohol and fire research
Approach• literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?• consult – what are others doing?• assess• recommend
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 7
Living research e.g. alcohol and fire
• US – alcohol impairment contributing factor in home fire deaths
• UK – unintentional dwelling fires identified alcohol and intoxication as a risk factor
• Scotland – the Fire and Rescue Service recognised alcohol as a major social problem
• NZ – drinking patterns a major problem
AND many agencies sending messages aimed at reducing alcohol harm
don't drink and fry video
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 8
Outcomee.g. alcohol and fire
Recommend NZFS consider its messages and efforts/role in areas
• technical* smoke detectors, alarms, built environment
• environmental* when fire occurs, in what setting, causes
• behavioural* education, advertising, government policy
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 9
To promote fire safetye.g. the influence of demographics
Approach• review issues and establish questions to be
addressed• extract data – NZFS and Statistics NZ - what
can data tell us, and what does it not tell us?• assess, analyse and evaluate• select case study areas for closer inspection• confirm findings
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 10
Living researche.g. the influence of demographics
• group rather than single factor• regression (data) analysis
* increase – density, gas as fuel, qualifications* decrease – separate dwellings, age (45-64)
• case studies
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 11
Outcomee.g. the influence of demographics
Recommend NZFS tailor fire safety messages considering impacts of
• urban v rural population growth• increasing urban density• apartments v separate dwellings• gas as heating fuel• age and qualification characteristics of popn
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 12
To improve NZFS operationse.g. composite performance measure
Approach• review – what happens now?• consult – what performance needs
measurement?• extract and analyse data – what can data tell
us, and what does it not tell us?• construct additional measures• propose
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 13
Living research e.g. composite performance measure
• performance of NZFS assessed on outcomes
• state of capability and readiness not incorporated in current performance measures
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 14
Outcome e.g. composite performance measure
NZFS consider modified composite performance measure* to combine measures of outputs measures
and of capability and readiness* is critical if appropriate level of capability
and readiness is to be encouraged (and funded)
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 15
To improve NZFS operationse.g. metadata analysis of CRF studiesApproach• establish assessment framework• categorise studies and links to CRF purpose• identify links to NZFS strategic priority areas
and operational responsibilities• investigate outcomes of studies• determine contribution of CRF
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 16
Living researche.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies• over 100 research projects between
1998-2010• common themes recurring through the
years• clear alignment
* with CRF purpose* with NZFS strategic priority areas* with NZFS operation responsibilities
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 17
Outcomee.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies
evidence that NZFS use CRF studies to improve fire outcomes
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 18
To establish costs of fires e.g. costs of industrial fires
Approach• literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?• agree costing method• extract data – NZFS and Insurance Council
data• construct estimation model and populate• report results
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 19
Living research e.g. costs of industrial fires
• impact on business activity* direct economic interruption* indirect impact on suppliers* effect on wider community
• impact on fire service* cost of operational readiness
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 20
Outcomee.g. costs of industrial fires
evidence that improving fire outcomes closely related to operational readiness of NZFS
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 21
To establish costs of fires e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)
Approach• literature scan – what is happening elsewhere?• explore costing options• devise survey questions• undertake survey and assess responses• impute VoSL from responses• report results
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 22
Living research e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)
• is VoSL from fire event different VoSL from road accident event?
• perceptions of risk and of ‘personal control’ lie at heart of different values
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 23
Outcomee.g. value of statistical life (VoSL)
NZFS consider adopting appropriate VoSL for Regulatory Impact Statements and relative assessments
inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012slide 24
Quantitative, Practical, Theoretical or Strategic?Project Area Q P S T
alcohol and fire promote fire safety
demographics promote fire safety
comp perf measure improve operations
metadata improve operations
VoSL fire costs
industrial fires fire costs