finding growth in reinvented retail · 2018-11-20 · finding growth in reinvented retail 10...

Finding growth in reinvented retail10 elements to win omnichannel

Stéphane Roger, Global Shopper & Retail Director

2

500 000 continuous panelists

Shopping behaviour

Fast Moving Consumer Good (FMCG)

Fresh Food focus

All channels

27 countries

3 years back data and forecast 2020

01Big growth is

over

Growth in FMCG is harder than ever, 2017 is slightly better

Growth in percentage over the previous years

4Source: Kantar Worldpanel, IMF

3.5% 3.4%3.5% 3.4%

3.2%3.7%

6.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.3%

1.9%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Global Real GDP (IMF) Global FMCG

95

89 89

79 79

68

6158

4238

35 35 34 34 32 32 32 30

22

17 15 14 13 12 12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CHI GE CAM PT FR UK SP KE PO TW IT KSA ECU MAL AR TH SKO MX COL JAP BR PH CN PE VI

CHI GE CAM PT FR UK SP KE PO TW IT KSA ECU MAL AR TH SKO MX COL JAP BR PH CN PE VI

Retailers would have more appetite to generate more alliances & be price competitive.

% value Share of market of TOP 5 Retailers in 2016 -

5

Average

43,5%

Source Kantar Worldpanel

More buying alliances

More concentration

More movements of concentration in Europe / Asia

6

02Invest on

convenience

and value for

money models

8

Understanding what shoppers need

SAVE TIME & STRESS FREE VALUE FOR MONEY PROXIMITY

E-COMMERCE DISCOUNT – C&C CONVENIENCE

Growth is fragmented and new drivers have emerged

FMCG Global value annual growth 2017/ 2016

Source: Kantar Worldpanel 9

+0.8%

HYPER/

SUPER

+1.9%

TOTAL

+2.0%

TRADITIONAL +2.0%

CONVENIENCE

+4.4%

CASH&CARRY

+5.2%

DISCOUNTERS

+15.0%

E-COMMERCE

03Change the

way you

observe your

performance

The read of performance in Hyper and supermarkets is not enough anymore

% value contribution to 2017 FMCG growth

11

76% of FMCG value

growth comes from

outside HM/SM

24%

5%

13%

28%

10%11%

10%

Hypermarket &Supermarket

Convenience Discounters e-commerce Cash&carry Traditional Others

50.8%

18.5%

13.3%

4.8% 5.1% 5.4%

1.3%

49.8%

18.6%

13.2%

5.4% 5.2% 5.5%

1.6%

49.2%

18.4%

13.1%

5.8% 5.3% 5.5%

1.8%

48.4%

18.4%

12.5%

7.2% 6.0% 5.8%

2.1%

Hypermarket &Supermarket

Tradional trade Others E-commerce Discounters Convenience Cash&carry

2015 2016 2017 Forecast 2020

Acceleration of retail changes

% global value share by channel


04Drive growth

activating the

right levers

Western Europe improves value performance in 2017 mainly due to inflation in the UK

FMCG annual value growth 2017 & (2016)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel, Intage 14

+7.3%(+13.0%)

+0.5%(+0.4%)

+8.8%(+5.2%)

+2.2%(+0.3%)

+4.3%(+3.1%)

ASIA

LATIN AMERICAAFRICA

WESTERN

EUROPEUSA

+3.9%(+3.6%)

EASTERN EUROPE

+1.9%(+1.3%)

GLOBAL

36.2% 35.8% 35.4%

63.8% 64.2% 64.6%

2015 2016 2017

Global Brands Local Brands

Local brand continue to chip away at global brand spend

Share of spend – Global vs Local ($%)

Source Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel

15

Drive growth reaching the right target by format

% value share of market by format and most important share by target in Western Europe


HIPER

MARKET

25.4%35-44

33.2%DISCOUNT

11.0%35-44

11.6%

TRADITIONAL

& OTHERS

10.5%+65

12.8%E-COMMERCE

5.6%< 35

9.8%CONVENIENCE

6.0%+65

24.2%

SUPER

MARKET

40,5%45-64

45.5%

05Answering to

shopper’s price

orientation

Private label has a great future still eveywhere

Growing globally but largely due to the US and discounter increase

11.3%

13.9%

30.8%

34.7%

2.8%

7.0%

16.2%

22.0%

1.2%1.2%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Global Western Europe Eastern Europe USA Latam

Private Label FMCG Value Shares

Source: Global and regional totals are the ‘barometer’ countries in this report: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK, Poland, Russia, US, Brazil, Mexico, China and Japan 18

Discounters continue to grow share due to specific countries

UK, Poland, Russia, and booming in Latam

4.8%

7.0%

13.9%

16.4%

13.0%

27.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Global Western Europe Eastern Europe

19© Europanel 2015 powered by GfK and Kantar Worldpanel. Global and regional totals are the ‘barometer’ countries in this report: France, Germany, Italy,

NL, Spain, UK, Poland, Russia, USA, Brazil, Mexico, China and Japan.

Latam

Discounter FMCG Value Shares

Lidl renovating the concept of discount

PRIVATE LABEL EXCELLENCE

PLEASANT SHOPPING

MASSIVE MEDIA INVESTMENT

20

New concepts are rising in Colombia after D1 boom: Justo & bueno - Ara

70 shops in 2 years, 500 sqm with a promise of proximity and great prices

21

Incumbent retailers reacting

Opening Price oriented stores (Tesco UK) or activating more omnichannel options (Leclerc France)

22

06Adapted to a

world of

constrasts

E-commerce, Asia is dominant.

2017 Online value share in FMCG E- Commerce

24

FAST GROWING

2017 value growth

+15.0%

ALREADY

SIGNIFICANT

% Value share

of ecommerce

in FMCG market

5.8%

BRANDED

% Value share

Brands: 79.9%

Private label: 20.1%

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.10.1

0.1

0.10.1

5.4

7.6

1.91.0

8.0

0.1

0.1

7.616.7

1.5

0.11.1

6.4

0.5

1.7

0.5

2.0

0.9

2.3

1.9

0.1

2.6

2.2

3.21.7

0,6

0.90.1

1.1

1.8

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel, Intage, US commerce department – MAT December 2017

From 1.0% share to 5

From 0% share to 1%

Above 5% share

Pure players go faster

% value share of market Pure Players vs Bricks – 52 w/e June 2018

25

84.5%

Korea

98,9% China

58.3%

World

16.0%

UK

Pure

Players

(+31%)

Bricks

(+2,3%)

21%

Spain

4,4%

Argentina

Malaysia

Fuente: Kantar Worldpanel

67,5%

Taiwan

Megacities, at the heart of online winning strategy

Source: Kantar Worldpanel – MAT June 2018 – share of market in value –

26

22,4SEOUL

12,4SHANGHAI

BANGKOKLISBON

TAIPEI LONDON

PARIS MADRID

9,4 8

3,6 3,6 2,8 2,7

Playing where it is relevantCategory and country contrasts in FMCG

Global E- Commerce share by macro Category


4.3% 6.3%

17.0%

30.6%

France UK China South Korea

2017 Value Share of Beauty products online

5.9% 6.2% 8.4%

31.1%

France China UK South Korea

2017 Value Share of Homecare online

5.8%

10.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Total FMCG Food Beverages Homecare Dairy Health &Beauty

2015 2016 2017

07Hypermarket is

not dead

Hypermarkets no longer the #1 choice of shopper on purchase drivers

Source: Kantar Retail analysis 29

Metric Choice of Channel (1990s) Choice of Channel (2017)

Assortment

Price

Events

Hypermarkets (e.g. Auchan)~ 60,000 SKUs

Hypermarkets (e.g. Walmart)Every day low price proposition

Hypermarkets (e.g. Tesco)Seasonal events, Treasure hunts

E-commerce (Amazon.com)~480 million SKUs

Discounters (Aldi, Lidl)Every day low price proposition

E-commerce (e.g. Alibaba)Singles Day event

30

Carrefour China

Fmart (Yonghui) China

Local players leverage their understanding of local needs and couple it with best-in-class execution

Better options as global players outperformed by local players

Source: Kantar Retail store visits

New Carrefour HM in Sao Paulo

Large space dedicated to fresh food at the entrance

31

08Winning

strategy is

about

generating

traffic first

38.6

-20.8

26.2

-19.1

9.0

-8.1

Top 15% Next 15% Other winners Other losers Next 15% Bottom 15%

Category value % chg

Category penetration % chg

Category frequency % chg

©Europanel | Based on median values for 1422 categories in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy Netherlands, Portugal,, Spain, Sweden, UK, Czech R,

Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia,, USA,, Brazil, India and China – 2015 vs 2010

Declining categoriesGrowing categories

2015 vs 2010

Asia is dominating e-commerce because attracting 60% of the population vs 30% in Europe

E-Commerce, Total FMCG – 52 w/e shopper measures – Last 6 years ending Dec 2017


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Fre

quency

PenetrationSpain

GB

China

Japan

South Korea

France

Attract new shoppers in providing complete online + offline experience


Walmart acquired

Jet.comAugust 2016

Asda & Sainsbury’s

Alliance UKMay 2018

Google- Carrefour

France June 2018

Walmart-Flipkart India May 2018

Amazon aquired Whole

FoodsJune 2017

Walmart & Google

allianceAugust 2017

Carrefour announced

agreement with Tencent

& YonghuiJanuary 2018

Amazon Go in Seatle

launchedJanuary 2018

Alibaba partnership with

Bailian groupFebruary2017

Walmart & JD.com

AllianceFebruary 2017

Alibaba deployed Hema

Fresh July 2017

Alibaba / Sun Art and

Auchan allianceNovember 2017

JD launched 7

freshNovember 2017

Prepare ground in emerging markets

36

IndonesiaMexico Brazil

Colombia

More evidence of direct to consumer

Subscription mode with Undies, Alliances of brands in Shobr Danemark or INS platform

37

Technology disrupting shopping behaviour

Source: Kantar Worldpanel & Kantar Retail

Amazon Echo Google Home

Amazon has a

80% share of the

emerging voice-

controlled speaker

market

(US/FR/UK)

38

7%

US5,5%

GB4,8%

IT

4,1%

F3,2%

D2%

SP % penetration of voice device

2017- Comtech Kantar Worldpanel

09Build

incremental

propositions

+6,5

+0,8

Online adopters Online Repeaters

+8,9

+2,7

Online adopters Online repeaters

+6,3

+3,5

Online Adopters Online repeaters

UK: +1.5% SOUTH KOREA : +1.9%CHINA: +3.1%

Differentiated ranging & new brands to avoid cannibalisation

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

% evolution on + off spend in FMCG - 52 w/e March 2017 vs 2016 – benchmarked with control group -

40

10A great

opportunity for

Fresh Food

42

116107

39

Fresh Food Annual Purchase Frequency 2017

USD 130BN potential for the US if reaching global fair share

28.712.6 22.1

56.3

71.387.4 77.9

43.7

GLOBAL US EUROPE CHINA

OTHER FMCG

FRESH FOOD

% Value of Fresh Food vs total FMCG

EUROPE: UK + SPAIN + FRANCE + GERMANY

FRESH FOOD: MEAT + SEAFOOD + FISH + VEGETABLES + FRUITS

43

28.7

22.1

12.6

56.3

31.327.9

13.1

60.1

GLOBAL EUROPE USA CHINA

Total 65+

% Value of Fresh Food vs T. FMCG & in Senior HHs

Seniors purchase more Fresh Food globally

Fresh Food (Meat, Fish&Seafood, Fruit&Veg)

Source Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel

% Value growth in the last year

UK, US, FR, GE, SP

44

+11%avocado

+4%broccoli

+4%spinach

+8%berries

Health is growing globally

% Average Growth in Value vs 2014

0.0

1.0

4.0

1.6

26

6.2

10.1

8.7

Spain

France

Germany

UK

FRESH FOOD ORGANIC FRESH FOOD

*

EUROPE

USA

CHINA

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

% P

eo

ple

with

Ob

esity

% Fresh Food vs Total FMCG

45Source OMS & Kantar Worldpanel

The higher the impact of Fresh Food, less people suffering from obesity in the region

* Fast moving consumer goods

2017 – %Share of Online in Fresh Food

46

GERMANY

0,5%

FRANCE

1,9%

CHINA

1,3%

UK

6,7%

e-commerce growth is a big challenge for fresh food categories

SPAIN

0,5%

Amazon: still small but fast growing and driven by young urban affluent shopper

Shopper profile Index Amazon vs E- Com Channel

4,8% 1% 3,3%

+20,3% +52%

Mat June 2018 - USD -

Value share of market - 100% online FMCG

% value change vs last year

Frequency of purchase (number of visits per year)

Spend per trip Amazon

Spend per trip HM

Spend per trip Total e-com

MILLENIALS SPAIN 154

HIGH INCOME UK/FR 107

Source Kantar Worldpanel

+22,5%

2,8 3,4 3,7

23 25 29

150

45 32 27

73 74 40

Fresh is a door for online grocery

48

49

Big growth is over for FMCG

New era of retail concentration

Tougher negotiations for brands

Price war to win share

Build within a fragmented growth

E-commerce + proximity + value for money

Meet local needs

Segment to find new shoppers and occasions

E-commerce is a must have

Megacities first

Incremental proposition

O+O

Emerging markets

4 Take outs to engage your growth strategy

Greater opportunities for Fresh

Fresh becomes more relevant as population

getting older

Healthy products at the centre

Support specialist & convenience stores

E-commerce, new playground

finding growth in reinvented retail · 2018-11-20 · finding growth in reinvented retail 10...

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