financial risk assessment - erp method (1)
TRANSCRIPT
ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN
UNCERTAINTY ENVIRONMENTS
COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH
BASED ON:
RISK RATIO (RR)
STRUCTURAL OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS (SOA)
CREDIT OFFICER ASSESSMENT (COA)
NEGATIVE CREDIT RECORD (NCR)
CONCEPTS
ESTIMATED LOSS PROBABILITY (ELP)
ESTIMATED RECOVERY PROBABILITY (ERP)
ESTIMATED LOSSPROBABILITY
ELP = 1 – ERP
Estimated Recovery
Probability
ESTIMATED RECOVERYPROBABILITY
ERP = CI [ α (RR) + β(SOA) + φ (COA) ] - [NCR]
Risk Ratio
Structural Operational
Analysis
CreditOfficer
Assessment
Negative CreditRecordCorrect Index
α, β, γ= Weighting level
RISK RATIO (RR)
VARIABLES
• Economic feasibility
• Indebtedness
• Equity
• Cash Amount Ratio
• Loan Regular Payments
4 YEARS FORECAST
STRUCTURAL OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS (SOA)
VARIABLES
Owner’s abilities and skills
Product concept
Knowledge of customer’s need
Potential customers
Cash amount ratio
Business plan
Break-even point
Information network of partners
Motivation and recruitment of employees
Level of ICT use
CREDIT OFFICER ASSESSMENT (COA)
VARIABLES
Project feasibility
Evolution of the sector
Project state of development
Knowledge and experience of the entrepreneur
Preset agreements with customers
NEGATIVE CREDIT RECORD (NCR)
Risk assessment
Credit Records assessment(CIRBE)
+
NCR
EXAMPLE OF PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION
CEEI-BURGOS MICROFINANCE FACILITY
Micro credits
• No guarantees/No collaterals• 4/5 years
• 6 months grace period (Optional)
• 3-1,5% of interest rate• No fees
INDICATORS OF PERFORMANCE
Period: 01/01/2013 – 20/05/2015
Aplications: 59Approved: 21Denied: 22Study: 16
59
21 22
16
INDICATORS OF PERFORMANCE
Total budget (Microfinance fund) 375.000 €
Current amortization 82.395,12€
Total leveraged investment (approved applications)
1.012.051,51€
Total loans granted 358.234,15€
Jobs created 27
Default rate 0%
Survival projects/companies ratio 100%
