financial analysis - national oilwell varco inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components...

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21.02.2013 Ticker: National Oilwell Varco Inc Benchmark: Currency: New York: NOV, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) Sector: Energy Industry: Energy Equipment & Services Year: Telephone 713-346-7500 Revenue (M) Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.nov.com No of Employees Rig Technology 10107 United States 1 Address 7909 Parkwood Circle Drive Houston, TX 77036 United States Petroleum Services & Supplies 6967 Other Share Price Performance in USD Distribution Services 3927 South Korea Price 67.84 1M Return -6.8% Elimination -960 Canada 52 Week High 89.08 6M Return -12.9% Singapore 52 Week Low 58.87 52 Wk Return -19.3% Norway 52 Wk Beta 1.47 YTD Return -0.7% United Kingdom Credit Ratings Bloomberg IG5 S&P A Date 25.04.2012 Outlook STABLE Moody's A2 Date - Outlook STABLE Fitch - Date - Outlook - Valuation Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E P/E 11.3x 16.6x 14.3x 11.6x 11.4x 10.0x 9.0x EV/EBIT 6.8x 10.6x 8.8x 8.2x - - - EV/EBITDA 5.7x 8.8x 7.4x - 6.4x 5.7x 5.3x P/S 1.4x 2.3x 2.0x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x P/B 1.3x 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x Div Yield 2.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Gross Margin 29.8 31.5 30.7 27.0 27.4 28.7 29.3 EBITDA Margin 23.2 24.3 23.8 - 20.0 20.9 21.4 Operating Margin 19.4 20.1 20.0 17.7 16.7 17.9 18.3 Profit Margin 11.6 13.7 13.6 12.4 11.2 12.0 12.5 Return on Assets 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.7 11.1 11.5 - Return on Equity 11.0 11.2 12.0 13.2 12.0 12.4 12.1 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.8 Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 423.9 EBIT/Interest 46.5 48.9 73.4 73.9 Market Capitalization (M) 28961.3 Tot Debt/Capital 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Cash and ST Investments (M) 3319.0 Tot Debt/Equity 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 Total Debt (M) 3149.0 Eff Tax Rate % 33.3 30.8 32.1 29.2 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 117.0 Enterprise Value (M) 28908.3 #N/A N/A National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry. NOV UN 20'041 Company Analysis - Overview 46% 32% 18% 4% Rig Technology Petroleum Services & Supplies Distribution Services Elimination 100% United States Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

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Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

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Page 1: Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

21.02.2013

Ticker: National Oilwell Varco Inc Benchmark:

Currency: New York: NOV, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)

Sector: Energy Industry: Energy Equipment & Services Year:

Telephone 713-346-7500 Revenue (M) Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M)

Website www.nov.com No of Employees Rig Technology 10107 United States 1

Address 7909 Parkwood Circle Drive Houston, TX 77036 United States Petroleum Services & Supplies 6967 Other

Share Price Performance in USD Distribution Services 3927 South Korea

Price 67.84 1M Return -6.8% Elimination -960 Canada

52 Week High 89.08 6M Return -12.9% Singapore

52 Week Low 58.87 52 Wk Return -19.3% Norway

52 Wk Beta 1.47 YTD Return -0.7% United Kingdom

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg IG5

S&P A Date 25.04.2012 Outlook STABLE

Moody's A2 Date - Outlook STABLE

Fitch - Date - Outlook -

Valuation Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

P/E 11.3x 16.6x 14.3x 11.6x 11.4x 10.0x 9.0x

EV/EBIT 6.8x 10.6x 8.8x 8.2x - - -

EV/EBITDA 5.7x 8.8x 7.4x - 6.4x 5.7x 5.3x

P/S 1.4x 2.3x 2.0x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x

P/B 1.3x 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x

Div Yield 2.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%

Profitability Ratios %

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Gross Margin 29.8 31.5 30.7 27.0 27.4 28.7 29.3

EBITDA Margin 23.2 24.3 23.8 - 20.0 20.9 21.4

Operating Margin 19.4 20.1 20.0 17.7 16.7 17.9 18.3

Profit Margin 11.6 13.7 13.6 12.4 11.2 12.0 12.5

Return on Assets 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.7 11.1 11.5 -

Return on Equity 11.0 11.2 12.0 13.2 12.0 12.4 12.1

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12

Current Ratio 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.8 Current Capitalization in USD

Quick Ratio 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 423.9

EBIT/Interest 46.5 48.9 73.4 73.9 Market Capitalization (M) 28961.3

Tot Debt/Capital 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Cash and ST Investments (M) 3319.0

Tot Debt/Equity 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 Total Debt (M) 3149.0

Eff Tax Rate % 33.3 30.8 32.1 29.2 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 117.0

Enterprise Value (M) 28908.3

#N/A N/A

National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components

used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply

chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.

NOV UN

20'041

Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 2: Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

National Oilwell Varco Inc

Target price in USD

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Page 3: Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

21.02.2013

National Oilwell Varco Inc

Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 423.9 United States 84.56%

Float 99.7% Britain 4.70%

Short Interest (M) 4.3 Canada 1.91%

Short Interest as % of Float 1.02% Japan 1.50%

Days to Cover Shorts 1.43 France 1.06%

Institutional Ownership 102.26% Germany 1.00%

Retail Ownership -2.52% Switzerland 0.90%

Insider Ownership 0.26% Others 4.37%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Investment Advisor 86.98%

Hedge Fund Manager 4.73%

Pension Fund (Erisa) 2.46%

Mutual Fund Manager 1.93%

Pricing data is in USD Others 3.90%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

BLACKROCK 30'642'899 0 2'078'814'268 7.18% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

VANGUARD GROUP INC 19'278'074 138'815 1'307'824'540 4.52% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

STATE STREET 18'479'141 561'297 1'253'624'925 4.33% 19.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

FMR LLC 18'049'001 -5'431'601 1'224'444'228 4.23% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

SANDS CAPITAL MANAGE 9'422'878 335'621 639'248'044 2.21% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

OPPENHEIMERFUNDS INC 8'339'871 1'475'345 565'776'849 1.95% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

NORTHERN TRUST CORPO 8'217'551 -143'556 557'478'660 1.92% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

BANK OF NEW YORK MEL 7'646'149 284'855 518'714'748 1.79% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

MASSACHUSETTS FINANC 7'267'860 1'344'474 493'051'622 1.70% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

JP MORGAN 6'813'302 864'892 462'214'408 1.60% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG

WADDELL & REED FINAN 5'457'809 -646'995 370'257'763 1.28% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL 5'444'048 -1'845'531 369'324'216 1.28% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY I 5'294'800 1'108'000 359'199'232 1.24% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

CLEARBRIDGE INVESTME 5'260'359 -55'991 356'862'755 1.23% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

HARRIS ASSOCIATES LP 5'205'684 527'011 353'153'603 1.22% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN 5'199'627 -603'509 352'742'696 1.22% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

MARSICO CAPITAL MANA 5'020'360 -1'307'778 340'581'222 1.18% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN 4'932'898 -1'209'184 334'647'800 1.16% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

JANUS CAPITAL MANAGE 4'611'502 1'102'310 312'844'296 1.08% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 3'863'917 445'416 262'128'129 0.91% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

MILLER JR MERRILL A 535'904 -2'500 36'355'727 0.13% 30.11.2012 Form 4

WILLIAMS CLAY C 162'879 21'000 11'049'711 0.04% 15.02.2013 Form 4

RETTIG DWIGHT W 61'754 13'000 4'189'391 0.01% 15.02.2013 Form 4

THIGPEN JEREMY D 50'638 16'000 3'435'282 0.01% 15.02.2013 Form 4

MATTSON ERIC L 48'600 2'594 3'297'024 0.01% 16.05.2012 Form 4

Company Analysis - Ownership

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 4: Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

National Oilwell Varco Inc

Financial information is in USD (M)

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Income Statement

Revenue 1'522 2'005 2'318 4'645 7'026 9'789 13'431 12'712 12'156 14'658 20'041 22'613 24'187 25'290

- Cost of Goods Sold 1'160 1'541 1'822 3'657 5'265 6'959 9'360 8'928 8'324 10'161 14'628

Gross Income 362 464 496 987 1'761 2'830 4'072 3'784 3'832 4'497 5'413 6'193 6'946 7'418

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 228 305 328 479 642 786 1'154 1'322 1'385 1'560 1'868

(Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income 134 159 169 509 1'119 2'044 2'918 2'462 2'447 2'937 3'545 3'778 4'320 4'620

- Interest Expense 27 39 38 53 49 50 67 53 50 40 48

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -6 3 -1 26 21 -35 -111 201 0 -25 -8

Pretax Income 113 117 132 430 1'049 2'029 2'961 2'208 2'397 2'922 3'505 3'713 4'224 4'583

- Income Tax Expense 39 34 19 139 356 676 993 735 738 937 1'022

Income Before XO Items 74 83 112 291 694 1'353 1'969 1'473 1'659 1'985 2'483

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests 1 6 2 4 10 16 17 4 -8 -9 -8

Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.45 0.45 0.64 0.91 1.94 3.76 4.90 3.52 3.98 4.70 5.83

Net Income Adjusted* 73 84 95 308 684 1'337 2'024 1'621 1'696 2'021 2'520 2'534 2'902 3'154

EPS Adjusted 0.45 0.49 0.55 0.98 1.94 3.76 5.08 3.88 4.09 4.77 5.91 5.96 6.81 7.51

Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.41 0.45 0.49 0.51 0.53 0.54

Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.3 10.3 9.6 8.4 0.08 0.08 0.07

Total Shares Outstanding 162 170 172 349 351 357 417 418 421 424 424

Diluted Shares Outstanding 163 170 173 317 354 355 399 417 419 424 427

EBITDA 159 198 213 623 1'280 2'259 3'319 2'952 2'954 3'492 4'533 5'044 5'412

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 5: Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets 1123.634 1246.4 1537.4 2998.2 4965.6 7593.8 9657.2 9598 10535 12110 15678

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 118 74 143 209 957 1'842 1'543 2'622 3'333 3'535 3'319

+ Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 428 461 480 1'139 1'615 2'100 3'136 2'187 2'425 3'291 4'320

+ Inventories 524 654 884 1'540 2'138 3'218 4'425 4'230 4'203 4'623 7'116

+ Other Current Assets 53 57 31 109 256 434 554 559 574 661 923

Total Long-Term Assets 854 996 1'061 3'680 4'054 4'521 11'822 11'934 12'515 13'405 15'806

+ Long Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gross Fixed Assets 368 450 506 1'167 1'396 1'710 2'329 2'701 2'903 3'660

Accumulated Depreciation 160 197 251 290 374 513 653 865 1'063 1'215

+ Net Fixed Assets 208 252 255 878 1'022 1'197 1'677 1'836 1'840 2'445 2'945

+ Other Long Term Assets 645 744 806 2'803 3'032 3'324 10'145 10'098 10'675 10'960 12'861

Total Current Liabilities 355 452 800 1'187 2'665 4'027 5'624 4'174 4'536 5'416 5'649

+ Accounts Payable 169 229 408 568 505 604 852 584 628 901 1'200

+ Short Term Borrowings 15 150 6 6 153 4 7 373 351 1

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 186 209 243 613 2'154 3'270 4'767 3'583 3'535 4'164 4'448

Total Long Term Liabilities 679 684 484 1'273 1'295 1'364 3'132 3'130 2'652 2'371 5'479

+ Long Term Borrowings 595 594 350 836 835 738 870 876 514 159 3'148

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 85 90 134 437 460 626 2'262 2'254 2'138 2'212 2'331

Total Liabilities 1'034 1'137 1'285 2'460 3'960 5'391 8'755 7'304 7'188 7'787 11'128

+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 10 16 18 25 36 63 96 115 114 109 117

+ Share Capital & APIC 596 676 694 3'403 3'464 3'621 7'993 8'218 8'357 8'539 8'747

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 338 415 603 792 1'560 3'041 4'634 5'895 7'391 9'080 11'492

Total Shareholders Equity 943 1'106 1'314 4'219 5'059 6'724 12'724 14'228 15'862 17'728 20'356

Total Liabilities & Equity 1'977 2'243 2'599 6'679 9'019 12'115 21'479 21'532 23'050 25'515 31'484

Book Value Per Share 5.76 6.40 7.54 12.03 14.31 18.67 30.26 33.73 37.39 41.56 47.74 52.82 59.04 66.33

Tangible Book Value Per Share 2.17 2.49 3.29 4.20 5.91 9.65 7.43 10.93 13.91 17.45 19.64

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 6: Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Cash Flows

Net Income 73 77 110 287 684 1'337 1'952 1'469 1'667 1'994 2'491 2'524 2'867 3'063

+ Depreciation & Amortization 25 39 44 115 161 214 402 490 507 555

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments -43 12 41 162 1'130 422 94 166 87 144

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital 49 -97 -29 -486 -758 -785 -154 -30 -719 -550

Cash From Operating Activities 104 31 166 78 1'217 1'188 2'294 2'095 1'542 2'143

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 8 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Capital Expenditures -25 -32 -39 -105 -200 -252 -379 -250 -232 -483 -586 -560 -611

+ Increase in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Decrease in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Other Investing Activities -201 -78 -3 143 -330 -323 -2'095 -302 -511 -975

Cash From Investing Activities -225 -102 -6 38 -530 -575 -2'473 -552 -743 -1'458

+ Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 -460 -172 -191

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings -8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 199 455 522 419 30 47 2'731 7 3 0

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -439 -632 -571 -35 -12 -2'920 -47 -16 -391

+ Increase in Capital Stocks 2 10 15 112 46 114 115 9 83 118

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Other Financing Activities 3 2 4 -8 20 122 -46 27 14 -19

Cash From Financing Activities 196 27 -92 -49 61 271 -120 -464 -88 -483

Net Changes in Cash 75 -44 69 67 748 884 -299 1'079 711 202

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 80 -1 127 -28 1'016 936 1'916 1'845 1'310 1'660 2'509 2'919 2'981

Free Cash Flow To Firm 97 26 160 8 1'048 970 1'960 1'880 1'345 1'687

Free Cash Flow To Equity 53 -180 1'011 972 1'727 1'805 1'297 1'269

Free Cash Flow per Share 0.49 -0.01 0.74 -0.09 2.90 2.64 4.82 4.44 3.14 3.93

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 7: Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 24.5x 22.8x 32.1x 32.2x 15.7x 19.5x 4.8x 11.3x 16.6x 14.3x 11.6x 11.4x 10.0x 9.0x

EV to EBIT 16.8x 15.4x 20.2x 22.8x 9.5x 12.4x 3.3x 6.8x 10.6x 8.8x 8.2x

EV to EBITDA 14.2x 12.4x 16.0x 18.6x 8.3x 11.2x 2.9x 5.7x 8.8x 7.4x 6.4x 5.7x 5.3x

Price to Sales 1.2x 0.9x 1.3x 2.1x 1.5x 2.7x 0.7x 1.4x 2.3x 2.0x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x

Price to Book 1.9x 1.7x 2.3x 2.6x 2.1x 3.9x 0.8x 1.3x 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x

Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin 23.8% 23.2% 21.4% 21.3% 25.1% 28.9% 30.3% 29.8% 31.5% 30.7% 27.0% 27.4% 28.7% 29.3%

EBITDA Margin 10.5% 9.9% 9.2% 13.4% 18.2% 23.1% 24.7% 23.2% 24.3% 23.8% 20.0% 20.9% 21.4%

Operating Margin 8.8% 7.9% 7.3% 10.9% 15.9% 20.9% 21.7% 19.4% 20.1% 20.0% 17.7% 16.7% 17.9% 18.3%

Profit Margin 4.8% 3.8% 4.8% 6.2% 9.7% 13.7% 14.5% 11.6% 13.7% 13.6% 12.4% 11.2% 12.0% 12.5%

Return on Assets 4.2% 3.6% 4.6% 6.2% 8.7% 12.7% 11.6% 6.8% 7.5% 8.2% 8.7% 11.1% 11.5%

Return on Equity 8.1% 7.6% 9.2% 10.5% 14.8% 22.9% 20.2% 11.0% 11.2% 12.0% 13.2% 12.0% 12.4% 12.1%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio 3.17 2.76 1.92 2.53 1.86 1.89 1.72 2.30 2.32 2.24 2.78

Quick Ratio 1.54 1.18 0.78 1.14 0.97 0.98 0.83 1.15 1.27 1.26 1.35

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 4.92 4.08 4.39 9.61 22.98 40.64 43.35 46.45 48.94 73.43 73.85

Tot Debt/Capital 0.39 0.36 0.28 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.13

Tot Debt/Equity 0.63 0.55 0.38 0.20 0.17 0.13 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.15

Others

Asset Turnover 0.88 0.95 0.96 1.00 0.90 0.93 0.80 0.59 0.55 0.60 0.70

Accounts Receivable Turnover 3.76 4.51 4.93 5.74 5.10 5.27 5.13 4.78 5.27 5.13 5.27

Accounts Payable Turnover 7.45 8.42 6.45 8.84 10.92 14.50 14.52 12.16 13.69 13.84 16.30

Inventory Turnover 2.37 2.62 2.37 3.02 2.86 2.60 2.45 2.06 1.97 2.30 2.49

Effective Tax Rate 34.8% 28.9% 14.6% 32.3% 33.9% 33.3% 33.5% 33.3% 30.8% 32.1% 29.2%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Page 8: Financial Analysis - National Oilwell Varco Inc. is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services

NATL OILWELL

VARHALLIBURTON CO

WEATHERFORD

INTL

CAMERON

INTERNAT

SCHLUMBERGER

LTD

BAKER HUGHES

INC

FMC

TECHNOLOGIESNOBLE CORP

AKER SOLUTIONS

ATRANSOCEAN LTD NABORS INDS LTD ENSCO PLC-CL A

DIAMOND

OFFSHORE

ROWAN

COMPANIE-AMCDERMOTT INTL

12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011

89.25 43.96 17.75 66.14 82.00 52.93 53.18 41.56 124.60 59.50 22.73 65.82 76.08 39.40 15.35

18.09.2012 14.02.2013 16.03.2012 05.02.2013 14.02.2013 22.02.2012 19.02.2013 16.03.2012 25.01.2013 14.02.2013 24.02.2012 14.02.2013 15.02.2013 27.02.2012 01.03.2012

59.07 26.28 8.84 38.38 59.12 37.08 36.89 28.73 72.20 39.32 12.40 41.63 54.07 28.62 9.04

26.06.2012 26.06.2012 15.11.2012 25.06.2012 26.06.2012 26.06.2012 26.06.2012 25.06.2012 26.06.2012 04.06.2012 26.06.2012 04.06.2012 26.06.2012 25.06.2012 04.06.2012

982'606 15'695'675 5'937'274 1'988'924 6'397'047 4'753'262 2'730'672 5'740'118 757'884 3'819'082 10'750'374 3'417'275 1'638'594 1'296'138 3'826'510

67.84 41.62 12.72 64.28 78.53 46.08 51.45 37.84 108.30 54.32 16.67 63.25 73.05 35.69 12.79

-24.0% -5.3% -28.3% -2.8% -4.2% -12.9% -3.3% -8.9% -13.1% -8.7% -26.7% -3.9% -4.0% -9.4% -16.7%

14.8% 58.4% 43.9% 67.5% 32.8% 24.3% 39.5% 31.7% 50.0% 38.1% 34.4% 51.9% 35.1% 24.7% 41.5%

423.9 929.0 749.0 246.7 1'328.0 441.0 237.7 252.7 270.5 349.8 290.4 235.9 139.0 123.6 235.1

28'961.3 38'622.8 10'679.8 15'858.8 104'307.9 20'358.5 12'231.2 9'562.9 29'674.2 20'306.5 4'840.7 14'688.9 10'156.2 4'432.5 3'016.4

3'149.0 4'820.0 7'606.0 2'076.2 11'630.0 4'916.0 1'640.8 4'634.4 7'691.0 13'536.0 4'379.7 5'050.1 1'496.1 1'134.4 93.7

- - - - - - - - - - 69.2 - - - -

117.0 25.0 21.0 - 107.0 199.0 16.3 765.1 157.0 106.0 12.2 5.2 - - 74.1

3'319.0 2'484.0 371.0 1'702.8 6'274.0 1'015.0 342.1 282.1 1'214.0 4'017.0 778.2 430.7 1'485.6 438.9 680.4

28'908.3 40'983.8 19'253.8 16'232.2 109'770.9 24'458.5 13'546.2 14'680.3 36'308.2 28'415.5 8'523.6 19'406.3 10'166.6 5'497.3 2'523.2

LFY 20'041.0 28'503.0 12'990.0 8'502.1 42'149.0 21'361.0 6'151.4 3'547.0 44'922.0 9'142.0 6'989.6 4'300.7 2'986.5 939.2 3'445.1

LTM 20'041.0 28'503.0 14'874.4 8'502.1 42'841.0 21'361.0 6'151.4 3'547.0 44'922.0 9'768.0 6'989.6 4'307.5 2'986.5 1'313.5 3'461.8

CY+1 22'612.8 29'769.0 15'070.5 9'573.1 46'176.7 21'482.0 6'803.4 4'438.4 49'190.0 9'667.9 6'751.0 5'087.7 3'057.8 1'391.2 3'615.1

CY+2 24'187.4 32'970.3 16'220.1 10'933.3 51'872.0 23'530.8 7'833.1 5'405.3 54'738.2 10'171.3 7'254.2 5'686.3 3'973.8 1'557.4 3'126.9

LFY 1.4x 1.2x 1.5x 1.7x 2.3x 1.0x 1.9x 3.9x 0.8x 2.7x 1.1x 4.0x 3.2x 5.6x 0.7x

LTM 1.4x 1.2x 1.3x 1.7x 2.3x 1.0x 1.9x 3.9x 0.8x 2.5x 1.1x 4.1x 3.2x 4.0x 0.7x

CY+1 1.2x 1.4x 1.3x 1.7x 2.3x 1.1x 1.9x 3.5x 0.7x 2.9x 1.3x 3.7x 3.8x 4.0x 0.7x

CY+2 1.1x 1.2x 1.2x 1.4x 2.0x 1.0x 1.5x 2.9x 0.6x 2.8x 1.1x 3.2x 3.0x 3.9x 0.8x

LFY 3'492.0 5'787.0 2'459.0 1'316.6 11'020.0 3'760.0 774.0 1'529.6 4'739.0 1'853.0 1'842.4 1'170.8 1'336.9 363.9 335.1

LTM 4'106.0 5'787.0 2'548.7 1'316.6 11'055.0 3'760.0 749.6 1'529.6 4'701.0 1'748.0 2'076.8 1'932.3 1'335.9 494.2 404.4

CY+1 4'532.7 6'184.6 2'747.3 1'635.5 12'404.7 3'847.0 965.7 2'128.7 5'332.1 3'406.5 1'903.3 2'590.5 1'289.8 538.4 416.5

CY+2 5'044.2 7'544.0 3'229.7 2'030.0 14'531.9 4'719.8 1'222.7 2'779.6 6'490.9 4'051.5 2'122.0 2'944.5 1'960.7 646.1 400.9

LFY 8.3x 6.0x 7.8x 10.9x 8.8x 5.9x 14.9x 9.1x 7.8x 13.1x 4.3x 14.9x 7.1x 14.5x 7.1x

LTM 8.3x 6.0x 7.5x 10.9x 8.8x 5.9x 15.3x 9.1x 7.9x 13.9x 4.0x 9.0x 7.1x 10.6x 5.9x

CY+1 6.2x 6.6x 7.0x 9.7x 8.7x 6.3x 13.1x 7.4x 6.6x 8.3x 4.5x 7.3x 9.1x 10.2x 6.0x

CY+2 5.1x 5.2x 5.9x 7.5x 7.1x 5.0x 9.7x 5.6x 5.3x 6.9x 3.7x 6.2x 6.2x 9.5x 6.2x

LFY 5.91 3.02 0.40 3.13 4.16 3.21 1.95 2.04 8.30 -5.78 0.82 5.23 5.09 1.17 0.63

LTM 5.90 3.08 -0.10 3.13 4.19 3.21 1.89 2.02 8.25 -3.92 1.92 5.41 5.08 1.70 0.73

CY+1 5.96 3.02 0.64 3.88 4.74 3.07 2.20 3.28 9.69 3.50 1.26 6.94 4.58 1.83 0.91

CY+2 6.81 3.96 1.03 5.08 5.83 4.22 2.95 4.88 12.77 4.74 1.69 8.12 7.50 2.42 0.88

LFY 11.5x 13.5x - 20.5x 18.7x 14.4x 27.2x 18.7x 13.1x - 8.7x 11.7x 14.4x 21.0x 17.5x

LTM 11.5x 13.5x - 20.5x 18.7x 14.4x 27.2x 18.7x 13.2x - 8.7x 11.7x 14.4x 21.0x 17.5x

CY+1 11.4x 13.8x 20.0x 16.6x 16.6x 15.0x 23.4x 11.5x 11.2x 15.5x 13.2x 9.1x 16.0x 19.5x 14.1x

CY+2 10.0x 10.5x 12.4x 12.7x 13.5x 10.9x 17.5x 7.8x 8.5x 11.5x 9.9x 7.8x 9.7x 14.7x 14.6x

1 Year 36.7% 14.8% 27.1% 22.2% 14.0% 7.7% 20.6% 31.6% 25.9% (3.4%) 15.3% 51.3% (10.1%) (7.7%) 43.3%

5 Year 18.9% 14.5% 15.5% 12.9% 14.7% 19.5% 12.5% 5.3% 3.1% 17.3% 10.1% 26.9% 3.6% (2.1%) (0.8%)

1 Year - (5.1%) 34.4% 17.6% 12.5% (11.2%) 15.5% 35.6% 36.8% (54.2%) - - (18.9%) (36.2%) (20.4%)

5 Year 22.2% 7.5% 6.0% 9.2% 5.5% 6.1% 12.1% (3.0%) 3.9% 2.5% 0.6% (0.5%) (1.6%) (8.8%) (4.9%)

LTM 22.1% 20.3% 17.1% 15.5% 25.8% 17.6% 12.2% 43.1% 10.5% 17.9% 29.1% 45.8% 44.7% 37.6% 11.7%

CY+1 20.0% 20.8% 18.2% 17.1% 26.9% 17.9% 14.2% 48.0% 10.8% 35.2% 28.2% 50.9% 42.2% 38.7% 11.5%

CY+2 20.9% 22.9% 19.9% 18.6% 28.0% 20.1% 15.6% 51.4% 11.9% 39.8% 29.3% 51.8% 49.3% 41.5% 12.8%

Total Debt / Equity % 15.6% 30.6% 79.8% 37.3% 33.5% 28.8% 89.3% 60.0% 65.1% 86.2% 73.7% 46.4% 32.7% 26.2% 5.6%

Total Debt / Capital % 13.4% 23.4% 44.3% 27.2% 25.0% 22.2% 47.0% 35.3% 39.1% 46.1% 42.1% 31.7% 24.6% 20.8% 5.1%

Total Debt / EBITDA 0.372x 0.833x 3.494x 1.577x 1.052x 1.307x 2.189x 3.030x 1.636x 8.081x 2.253x 2.521x 1.120x 2.819x 0.268x

Net Debt / EBITDA -0.042x 0.404x 3.351x 0.284x 0.484x 1.038x 1.733x 2.845x 1.378x 4.648x 1.955x 2.438x 0.008x 2.155x -1.383x

EBITDA / Int. Expense 87.300x 19.419x 5.428x 14.564x 32.412x 17.905x 29.098x 17.835x 10.132x 2.808x 6.565x 6.648x 28.927x 4.879x 35.921x

S&P LT Credit Rating A A BBB- BBB+ A+ A BBB BBB+ - - - BBB+ A- - BB

S&P LT Credit Rating Date 25.04.2012 20.08.2007 21.12.2012 18.05.2005 11.12.2002 05.05.2006 08.08.2002 08.12.2011 - - - 03.06.2011 27.07.2004 - 30.03.2010

Moody's LT Credit Rating A2 A2 - Baa1 A1 A2 - Baa1 - - - Baa1 A3 WR -

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date 14.05.2012 01.05.2007 - 07.05.1998 03.06.2003 25.01.1995 - 23.05.2006 - - - 08.03.2011 28.06.2012 03.12.1997 -

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (2/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision

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