final - university of the west indies · for disaster management and ... national office of...

1

Final

Needs Assessment for Capacity Building in Risk Management and Vulnerability Reduction in the Caribbean Islands of Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Cuba, Dominica, and

Grenada

Prepared By

Al Binger

For

United Nations Development Programme Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean

July 24, 2004

2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgements List of Abbreviations and Acronyms List of Tables and Figures Appendices CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Assessment Report - Terms of Reference (TOR) 1.2 Methodology CHAPTER 2 - GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE/IMPACTS & IMPLICATIONS FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND PREPARDNESS 2.0 Projected Climate Change Impacts on Caribbean SIDS 2.1 Vulnerability of Caribbean SIDS to Climate Change 2.2 Capacity Development to Reduce Vulnerability 2.3 Implications for National Disaster Management 2.4 Disaster/Risk Management CHAPTER 3 - SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS OF ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 3.0 Introduction 3.1 Terms of Reference: Output 1

3.1.1 Review of Current/Planned Programmes and/or Initiatives for Reducing Vulnerabilities in Climate Change and Disaster Management

3.1.2 Regional Programmes –Systemic, Institutional & Individual Capacities: Antigua & Barbuda; Dominica; Barbados; Grenada; Cuba

3.1.3 Identification of Gaps and Needs (Capacity, Institutional, Policy and Technical) associated with Programme Implementation

3.1.4 Addressing Capacity Development Gaps 3.2 Terms of Reference: Output 2 3.3 Terms of Reference: Outputs 3 & 4 CHAPTER 4 - CONCLUSION 4.0 Introduction 4.1 Resource Limitations and Capacity Development 4.2 Capacity Requirements at the National Level 4.3 The Imperative for Changing the Development Paradigm 4.4 Increased Efficiency in the Use of Limited Financial Resources 4.5 Convergence at the Institutional Level: Institutional Integration 4.6 The Need: Regional Foreign Policy to Address Climate Change

3

APPENDICES

4

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my colleagues: Mr. Brian Challenger of Antigua and Barbuda; Dr.

Leonard Nurse and Mr. Rawleston Moore of Barbados; Mr. Abel Centel of Cuba, and

Mr. Leon Charles of Grenada, for their contribution to the preparation of this report. I

would also like to thank Ms. Christine F. Neves Duncan of Jamaica, for editing the Final

Draft.

5

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ACCC – Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean APF – Adaptation Policy Framework BDD - British Development Division BPOA – Barbados Program of Action CARICOM – Caribbean Community CCCCC – Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre CDB – Caribbean Development Bank CDERA – Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency CDM – Comprehensive Disaster Management CEOC – Community Emergency Operations Centre CERO - Central Emergency Relief Organization CHAMP – Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Program CIDA – Canadian International Development Agency CPACC – Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change CIMH - Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology CSO – Central Statistical Office CWES - Centre for World Economy Studies DCA - Development Control Authority DEOC – District Emergency Operations Centre DMC – Disaster Management Cycle

6

DOWASCO – Dominica Water and Sewage Company DPA - Dominica Port Authority EAG - Environment Awareness Group ECCB – Eastern Caribbean Central Bank EC$ - Eastern Caribbean Dollar EEZ - Exclusive Economic Zone EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment EOC – Emergency Operations Centre EU – European Union GDP – Gross Domestic Product GEF – Global Environment Facility GIS – Global Information System GDP – Gross Domestic Product GNP – Gross National Product GoCD – Government of Commonwealth of Dominica GTZ - German Technical Assistance Cooperation Agency Ha – Hectares IAGDO – Inter-Agency Group of Development Organisations HCD - Headquarter of Civil Defence IACC - Institute of Civil Aeronautics of Cuba IDNDR - UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction IMF – International Monetary Fund

7

INRH - National Institute of Water Resources IPCC – Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change ISMET - Institute of Meteorology MACC – Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change MCWH – Ministry of Communications and Works MCWPU – Ministry of Communications, Works and Public Utilities MDG – Millennium Development Goals NCD – National Civil Defense NCSP – National Communication Support Program NDC – National Disaster Coordinator NDO – National Disaster Office NEEC – National Emergency Executive Committee NEPO – National Emergency Planning Organisation NERO - National Emergency Relief Organisation NGCC - National Group on Climate Change NHMC – National Hazard Mitigation Council NGO – Non-Governmental Organisation NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NODS - National Office of Disaster Services NSTP - National Science and Technology Programme ODM – Office of Disaster Management

8

OAS – Organisation of American States OECS – Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States PAD – Project Appraisal Document PAHO – Pan American Health Organisation SLR – Sea Level Rise SLS – Severe Local Storms SMCD - System of Measures for Civil Defence TAR – Third Assessment Report (of the IPCC) TC – Tropical Cyclones TOR – Terms of Reference UNDP – United Nations Development Program UNDP/CDI – United Nations Development Program/Capacity Development Initiative UNEP – United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNGA – United Nations General Assembly US SOUTHCOM – US Southern Command UWI – The University of the West Indies VANDACLIM - Climate modelling software distributed by UNDP/NCSP WMO - World Meteorological Organization

9

TABLES AND FIGURES

TABLES Table 2.0 Indicative Climate Change Adaptation Responses Table 3.0: Likely Impacts of Projected Changes in Extreme Climate Events Table 3.1: Adaptation (Vulnerability Reduction/Resilience Strengthening) Goals Table A.1 Antigua and Barbuda Sectoral Composition of Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) 1985 & 2000 Table A.2 Select Socio-Economic Indicators – Antigua and Barbuda Table A.3 Select Socio-Economic Indicators – Antigua and Barbuda Table A.4 Impact of Major Hurricanes on Antigua and Barbuda 1989-99 Table A.5 Antigua and Barbuda - Percentage Contribution of Gross Value Added by

Economic Activity in Constant Prices (hotel and restaurant, and air transport sectors)

Table A.6 Antigua and Barbuda - Select Economic Indicators 1994-2001 Table A.7 Antigua Water Production 1996-2003 (millions of gallons) Table A.8 Antigua Water Production January – July 2003 (millions of gallons) Table A.9 Likely Impacts of Projected Changes in Extreme Climate Events of

Relevance to Antigua and Barbuda Table A.10 Adaptation Goals for Antigua and Barbuda Table B.1 Dominica - Estimated Values of Non Banana Crop Losses from Hurricane

Lenny Table B.2 DOWASCO Estimated Costs after Hurricane Lenny Table B.3 Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Dominica Table C.1 Effects of IPCC Projections on the Water Supply of Barbados

10

Table C.2 Category 4&5 Hurricanes in Atlantic/Caribbean Region (Headley 2000) Table C.3 Selected Adaptation Options Identified During Cross-sectoral

Consultation During the CPACC Project (Adapted from Barbados National Communications)

Table C.4 Barbados - Impacts of Select Rainfall and Wind Events 1955 – 2000 Table D.1 Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Grenada Table D.2 Climate Change Programming in Grenada Table E.1 Gross Domestic Product at constant 1981 Prices (Million Cuban Pesos) Table E.2 Impacts of Selected Hurricanes on Cuba Table E.3 Summary of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Different Sectors FIGURES Figure 1.0 Disaster Losses, Total and as Share of GDP (1985-1999) Figure A.1 Monthly & Yearly Rainfall Totals For the Meteorological Office – V.C.

Bird International Airport Antigua And Barbuda Figure C.1 Barbados Gross Domestic Product (1996-2001) ($BDSM) Figure D.1 Grenada - Organisational Chart - National Emergency Relief Organisation

(NERO) Figure E.1 Hurricanes of Category 4 and 5 Affecting Cuba (1890- 1995) Figure E.2 Annual mean minimum temperature anomalies regarding 1961-90 average Figure E.3 Consecutive Months of Drought Conditions up to April 2004 Figure E. 4 Costal Flooding in Havana During the Winter of 1993 Figure E. 5 Current erosion problems could be exacerbated with future sea level rise

11

Figure E.6 Flowchart Showing the Functional Organization of Civil Defence in Cuba Figure E.7 Example of the Flow of Information During Occurrence of El Niño Events Figure E.8 Weather Meteorological Station Network of INSMET Figure E.9 Structure of National Climate Change Group in Cuba Figure E.10 Graphic Representation of Project Relationships and Interactions to

Maximize Utility of Results

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A Country Report – Antigua and Barbuda APPENDIX B Country Report - Dominica APPENDIX C Country Report - Barbados APPENDIX D Country Report - Grenada APPENDIX E Country Report - Cuba APPENDIX F Terms of Reference

“Caribbean Risk Management/Vulnerability Reduction Initiative Needs Assessment for Capacity Building in Risk Management and Vulnerability Reduction”

APPENDIX G Documentary Sources APPENDIX H Persons Consulted APPENDIX I Rainfall Data for Antigua and Barbuda

12

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.0 INTRODUCTION There is growing international concern that the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere is resulting in long-term changes to the global climate system. Recent reports from the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1 indicate that the process of climate change is already underway with likely significant adverse impacts for many regions and countries. Among the most vulnerable group of countries are small island countries that, while contributing miniscule amounts of greenhouse gases, are expected to be at particularly high risk to the climatic, environmental, and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Among the group of island States projected to be most at risk to the adverse effects of climate change are those of the Caribbean, where existing climatic hazards and environmental stresses already impact adversely upon attempts to achieve sustainable development. Seen from the perspective of economic impact, in constant monetary terms, the losses during disasters throughout the world during the 1990s were nine times superior to those sustained during the 1960s, and six times superior to those during the 1970s. This can be explained in terms of the increased exposure of population, infrastructure and production, increases in the value of assets and increases in human vulnerability to hazard events. Figure 1.0 Disaster Losses, Total and as Share of GDP (1985-1999)

Disaster Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, 1985-99

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

RichestCountries

PoorestCountries

Los

ses U

S$ B

illio

n

0

5

10

15

20

% G

NP

(nom

inal

)

TotalEconomic Losses

Losses asShare ofGDP

Although economic losses tend to be higher in absolute terms in the developed countries, the overall impact of disaster events is far higher in developing countries where over 90 per cent of human losses occur in any one year. The small island developing states of the

1 “Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change: Third Assessment Report.” 2001, IPCC

13

Pacific, Indian Ocean and Caribbean are particularly hard hit due to the very small size of their economies and the highly vulnerable nature of their economic base2. The Third Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change3 has indicated that the process of a changing climate is already underway. While the emissions of greenhouse gases from small island states are minuscule, the emissions from developed countries continue to increase and thus the countries most at risk to the environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change are not responsible for the problem. Projections for global climate change indicate the likelihood of increased incidents of extreme events associated with disasters – droughts, floods, storms – in Small Island States such as Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Cuba, Dominica, and Grenada, which are the subset of Caribbean Small Island Developing Countries (hereafter collectively referred to as Caribbean SIDS) reviewed in this report 1.1 Assessment Report - Terms of Reference (TOR) This assessment aims to build on previous work which has been done in the Caribbean region on adaptation to climate change and disaster risk assessment by conducting needs assessments aimed at identifying gaps in capacities related to adaptation to disaster risk. The report will address the linkages between adaptation needs for climate change and existing documented experiences in disaster risk management at the national and regional levels. Secondly, the project seeks to review the state of disaster management (prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response) to identify the strengths and weaknesses and existing capacity versus what is considered necessary to minimize vulnerability to increased risk of natural disasters projected to accompany climate change. This assessment looks at the likely impacts of global climate change on disaster management in the Caribbean, by examining a sub-set of countries, and the identifying possibilities for strengthening capacities of national institutions involved in various aspects of disaster and risk management to enable them to adapt, to effectively and efficiently address the likely consequences of national vulnerability to global climate change. Specific Terms of Reference are to:

• Review current or planned programmes and/or initiatives for reducing vulnerabilities in both areas (climate change, and disaster management), and identify gaps and needs (capacity, institutional, policy and technical) associated with their implementation.

2 A Climate Risk Management Approach to Disaster Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change: Final Report UNDP Expert Group Meeting: Integrating Disaster Reduction with Adaptation to Climate Change: Havana, June 19-21, 2002 3 Reference above

14

• Identify opportunities for strengthening of appropriate capacity building efforts focused on risk management associated with climate change and disaster risk management and response.

• Recommend, where possible, strategies and policies for the region, with a particular focus on sectoral areas that have not been adequately considered within existing and planned projects.

• Identify opportunities for cooperation and collaboration within the region, in particular efforts to operationalise such opportunities (e.g., training, application of best practices and the implementation of the regional Climate Change Centre).

1.2 Methodology The principal focus of the assessment is on those agencies in the sub-set of Caribbean SIDS that can be regarded as primarily involved on a day-to-day basis with the management of extreme weather events consisting essentially of the national disaster management and meteorological agencies. This involves adopting a necessarily restricted view of disasters in the context of climate change science since projections for temperature increases and other changes in climatic parameters by 2100, suggest that these conditions could be considered disastrous in any sense of the word and would require emergency type measures across the range of socio-economic activity. This more restricted focus is, however, aimed at highlighting the specific adaptation needs and circumstances of the disaster management community in relation to the likely effects of climate change on natural disasters. As outlined in the Terms of Reference for the Assessment (Appendix F), the methodology utilized for preparation of the report consisted of consultations with stakeholders involved in aspects of disaster risk management including disaster response, public health, insurance, development control, economic planning, environmental, and meteorological sectors; and comprehensive reviews of the available literature. The consultations were to ascertain from practitioners, on the ground, an understanding of existing capabilities and constraints as well as expectations, if any, of the likely impact of projected changes in global climate for their particular sectoral responsibilities and capabilities. The listing of individuals consulted is provided in Appendix H. Literature review includes material available from sources in the sub-set of countries, information produced by various regional and international agencies involved in disaster risk management, and information available on the Internet of relevance to the issue. A list of sources is provided at Appendix G of the report.

15

CHAPTER 2

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE/IMPACTS & IMPLICATIONS FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND PREPARDNESS

2.0 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CARIBBEAN SIDS The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emissions is now incontestable. It is equally well accepted that climate change will alter the severity, frequency and spatial distribution of climate related hazards. However, even while modelling of the linkages between global climate change and particular extreme climate events becomes increasingly sophisticated, it is still not possible to predict with any degree of confidence how particular climate events, in specific locations, will behave in the future. Even with regular and much better understood climate phenomenon like ENSO, considerable regional and temporal variations in impacts are observed from event to event. The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) projections, as well as information from a range of climate models, portray an increase in global average temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Centigrade, by the year 2100. Based on available paleo-climate data, this extent of warming is without precedent on Earth within the last 10,000 years. Changes of this magnitude will produce dramatic effects on the various elements of the climate system. While globally, precipitation is expected to increase with climate change, there will be substantial regional variations, with some models suggesting that the Caribbean could see an overall reduction in rainfall. Under IPCC scenarios, global sea level is projected to increase by 0.09 to 0.88 m between 1990 and 2100. As far as hurricane and tropical storm activity is concerned, there is less certainty as to the effects of warming and other climatic changes on the development and movement of tropical storms and hurricanes. It is expected, however, that warmer seas will provide additional energy for storm formation resulting in a likely intensification in the strength of storm systems. On the other hand, projections for more El Niňo type conditions would suggest a reduction in hurricane and storm activity. There is concern, however, that the process of intensified storm formation has already begun with the 1995-2001 period being the most active on record with 93 named storms, 57 hurricanes, and 27 major hurricanes. The latter include hurricanes Mitch (1998) and Isabelle (2003), both of which were extremely strong category five hurricanes. The IPCC TAR indicates that during the 20th Century, the Caribbean has seen an increase in temperature of about 0.6 degrees. Gray (1993)4 notes that there is also evidence of a drying tendency at various stations in the insular Caribbean. This is reflected in a significant increase in rainfall variability with some stations in Jamaica, Trinidad, and the eastern Caribbean showing moderately declining trends from the 1960s.

4 Calvin Gray, “ Regional Meteorology and Hurricanes” in “Climatic Change in the Inter Americas Sea”, ed. G Maul, UNEP, 1993

16

Models project that global climate change will result in changes in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events such as more hot days, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events. There are already concerns that changes to the global climate are producing increasing incidents of disasters. Although the number of people killed by disasters has fallen over the past three decades, the number of people affected by disasters - a definition that includes being injured or made homeless - has grown enormously. According to the World Disasters Report 2001, published by the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, these figures are up from 740 million in the 1970s to more than two billion in the 1990s. Reported economic losses, calculated at current values, have risen from $131bn in the 1970s to $629bn in the 1990s. Actual losses are likely to be greater5. The growth in these figures represents the global trend towards increased risk as a result of such factors as more development in vulnerable areas (flood plains, coastal areas etc.) and the perception that hazards, especially meteorological events, are increasing in severity and frequency. The IPCC --TAR concludes that Small Island States would be significantly impacted by climate change in a number of ways, viz:

Sea Level Rise (SLR) leading to land and infrastructure losses, beach erosion, storm surge, floods and inundation.

Increase in extreme weather events such as intensity and frequency of tropical

cyclones.

More extreme events leading to increased droughts, floods, and forest fires.

Health-related impacts, e.g., heat stress and increased vector mobility and activity.

Many of the projected impacts of global climate change on extreme weather events are of direct relevance to the Caribbean SIDS, and would likely lead to increased damage and mortality from hurricanes, increased likelihood of flooding and droughts and predominantly adverse effects on ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. 2.1 Vulnerability of Caribbean SIDS to Climate Change The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability.” Vulnerability to climate change has been defined by the IPCC as, “the degree to which a system is vulnerable to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change

5 Quoted in “Disasters waiting to happen: The social and economic costs of global warming will block all progress in the developing world”. Andrew Simms. Guardian. Wednesday June 19, 2002

17

including climate variability and extremes”6. Another definition of vulnerability is provided by Maskrey, who defines vulnerability as “the capacity of a household, community, business or country to absorb losses and damage and recover from them.” When vulnerability is low it may be possible to absorb losses, without a crisis or disaster occurring. Conversely, when vulnerability is high, even a small loss may provoke a disaster for the household or community concerned”7. This definition recognizes vulnerabilities relating to economic, environmental, and social factors and is particularly relevant for SIDS studies in this report. In these countries, limited human and natural resources result in dependence on external sources for vital inputs to economic activity. Such small communities also demonstrate the close linkage between the various elements of vulnerability, as the effects of disruptions in the natural resource base, due to environmental and/or climatic stresses, are rapidly translated into economic and social disruptions. With the exception of Dominica, and to a lesser extent Cuba, there is high dependence on tourism and this implies that damage to beaches and other tourism attractions from hurricanes will directly lead to significant adverse economic and social effects. The term mitigation as used in this assessment, except where the context otherwise indicates, refers to efforts for reducing the impact of natural disasters8. Adaptation to climate change has been defined by the IPCC as an “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”9. Adaptation to climate change therefore involves the attempt to cope with the effects of climate change by making the necessary adjustments allowing human activity to proceed, where possible, in a sustainable manner. It is important that adaptation to climate change be viewed as a process of incorporating knowledge relating to climate change into ongoing policies and measures rather than as a separate or distinct activity or set of activities. Given the all embracing nature of the physical and socio-economic impacts likely as a result of climate change, adaptation to climate change will need to occur within the framework of other ongoing attempts to secure economic, social, and political advancement. Article 4.7 of the UNFCCC recognizes that accelerating social and economic progress remain the first priority of developing countries. The uncertainties associated with climate change also make it incumbent that actions taken for adaptation be consistent with addressing existing development problems and concerns. Consequently, efforts by developing countries for responding to the challenges of climate change should be complementary to efforts at

6 Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation And Vulnerability. Report Of Working Group Two to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC. Cambridge University Press 7 Andrew Maskrey. “Disaster Early Warning Systems in Antigua and Barbuda: An Assessment of Disaster Early Warning Systems in Antigua and Barbuda and an Action Plan for Enhancing Capabilities”. GTZ. 1997. Unpublished. 8 This differs from the IPCC where mitigation is defined as “an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases”. 9 See IPCC above.

18

advancing the development agenda in such areas as economic growth, environmental protection, and promotion of social equity. Against this background, the IPCC has identified two inter-related objectives that provide a general framework for climate change adaptation. These are:

• Sustainable development, and • Reducing vulnerability.

The chart below provides a framework for assessing adaptation in the context of Caribbean SIDS utilizing the adaptation goals identified by the IPCC, and provides a tool for understanding the wider policy and socio-economic circumstances relating to adaptation.

Table 2.0 Indicative Climate Change Adaptation Responses Climate Change

Manifestation

Infrastructure/ Human

Settlements Agriculture Tourism Health Water Supply Ecosystems

Temperature Increase

Building guidelines

Urban planning

Irrigation Research into

drought resistant varieties

Diversification

Product diversification

Improved environmental health

Air conditioning

Better water conservation measures

Sea Level Rise Coastal Defences

Building setbacks

Building Codes

Land use zoning

Relocation Planning

Desalination Use of salt

tolerant varieties

Coastal defences

Product diversification

Desalination Desalination Coastal defences

Precipitation - More intense

Better land conservation practices

Land use zoning

Building codes


Land use zoning


Land use zoning Building codes

Improved environmental health practices

Increased consumer awareness

Better conserva-tion measures

19

Climate Change

Manifestation

Infrastructure/ Human

Settlements Agriculture Tourism Health Water Supply Ecosystems

Precipitation - Reduced volume

Soil erosion control measures

Research into drought resistant varieties

Crop rotation Integrated pest

management Improved

irrigation

Improved environmental health practices

Better Water conservation practices

Better monitoring of stream flows

Water storage

Tropical Cyclones

Building codes

Coastal setbacks

Relocation planning

Insurance

Soil conservation practices

Crop insurance

Building codes Coastal setbacks Relocation

planning Insurance

Better conserva-tion practices

In terms of an operational framework for adaptation, one approach being developed under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) National Communications Support Program, begins with a review of recent weather variability and extremes and the experiences in vulnerability and adaptation associated with these extremes, as a starting point for developing adaptive responses. This approach seeks to provide a development driven framework where adaptation to climate change, especially extreme events, is viewed as an ongoing process based on available experiences and best practices10. 2.2 Capacity Development to Reduce Vulnerability It should be recognized that, “the climate change community has not yet been able to move beyond fairly theoretical formulations of vulnerability and adaptation, towards concrete plans and programmes of action”11. The problems of uncertainty surrounding the modelling of the impact of climate change in particular locations, together with the difficulties of mobilizing political will and support to adapt to uncertain future events, have been constraints to development and implementation of adaptation strategies. Strengthening national and local capacities to manage climate related risks, as they can currently be assessed, is therefore likely to be the most practical strategy to manage climate risk in the future. Medium- and long-term adaptation should, therefore, be centred on efforts to improve present risk management and adaptation initiatives. This

10 National Communications Support Programme Adaptation Policy Framework: A Guide For Policies To Facilitate Adaptation To Climate Change. UNDP/GEF. New York. 2003. 11 UNDP Expert Group Meeting on Integrating Disaster Reduction with Adaptation to Climate Change, Havana, June 19-21, 2002:DRAFT SUMMARY .A Risk Management Approach to Disaster Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change. Alan Lavell. Editor. UNDP. Havana. 2002.

20

reflects the uncertainties that remain concerning climate change and the opportunity provided for evolutionary responses as climatic and socio-economic changes take place. The term “Capacity” refers to, “the ability of individuals and institutions to make and implement decisions and perform functions in an effective, efficient and sustainable manner”12. This process occurs at three distinct but inter-related levels: individual, institutional, and systemic. Systemic capacity refers to overall capacity available at the systemic level (national, regional or international). Institutional capacity refers to the existing and future capacity of organizations, while individual capacity relates to the quantity and quality of existing and/or future staff and human resources needed to address these issues. The term capacity development emphasizes “the overall policy framework within which individuals and organizations operate and interact with the external environment, as well as formal and informal relationships of institutions”13. An understanding of capacity development needs requires analysis of various factors. At the national level, these include the adequacy of the overall policy framework, the legal/regulatory framework in existence, systems of management responsibility and accountability, availability of financial resources, and the effectiveness and efficiency of the market economy. At the institutional level, critical concerns relate to the clarity of institutional roles and processes, organizational culture and norms, and the adequacy and availability of financial and human resources. Finally, at the individual level, concerns include the availability and adequacy of training, possibilities for career progression, access to information, and levels of accountability and ethics. It should be noted that there is substantial integration and overlap within and between these concerns/issues so that developments at one level, particularly at the national level, will have feedbacks both within and across other levels and issues. Capacity needs are dependent on what the capacity is intended for and therefore cannot be assessed independently of some substantive objective14. In this assessment, the emphasis is on identifying the type of impacts of climate change likely to affect disaster risk in these countries; the adaptation measures that will be required to best respond to the intensity or other disaster risks arising from climate change; and consequently, the related capacity development needs required for enabling the Caribbean SIDS to meet the challenges posed in this area of response to global climate change. 2.3 Implications for National Disaster Management With regard to climate change, it is estimated that 14 of the 20 hottest years on record during the 20th Century occurred between 1980 and 2000, and the hottest year to date was 1998. This same year also broke records in the cost of destruction and disruption caused by disaster, with some US$98 billion in damages and 32,000 casualties due to climatic phenomena, a 50 per cent difference as compared to the previous year. Overall, disaster

12 See Albert Binger “Capacity Development Initiative. Country Capacity Development Needs and Priorities: Report for Small Island States”. GEF/UNDP. September 2000. 13Binger Ibid. 14 Binger, Op Cit

21

occurrences and losses associated with extreme and increasingly not so extreme climatic events have increased dramatically in recent years and particularly since 1996. While the number of reported disasters associated with geophysical events such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes remained remarkably constant, those associated with hydro-meteorological events such as floods, drought, forest fires and storms have demonstrated a curve of exponential growth. The number of reported hydro-meteorological disasters in 2001 was approximately double the figure reported in 1996. While many of the emerging patterns of disaster risk are associated with natural hazards that show no tendency to increases in magnitude and recurrence, human interventions in the natural environment are generating new socio-natural hazards, mainly associated with climate events. In many incidences of new flooding, landslide, drought, forest fire and coastal erosion, environmental degradation has transformed natural resources into new hazards. At the same time, the social, economic, territorial, physical and political vulnerability of populations in many developing countries continues to worsen, weakening their capacity to absorb the impact of, and recover from, extreme climate events. 15 The impacts projected by the TAR have significant implications for traditional national disaster management, which has tended to focus on the physical impacts of sudden onset events like hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and the like. The implications include:

Their ability to cope with more intense hurricanes, with attendant impacts related to storm surges.

Their ability to cope with more frequent floods and landslides caused by extreme

precipitation. It also brings disaster and risk management into the realm of traditional socio-economic sectors, including, inter alia:

The Water sector vis-vis its ability to respond to water shortages. The Agricultural sector vis-vis its ability to respond to drought, floods and

landslides. The Health sector vis-vis its ability to respond to heat stress and increased vector

activity inter alia. The above implications mean that the application of the key processes of disaster/risk management – vulnerability analysis, prevention, preparedness, mitigation, response, recovery and restoration - have to be strengthened within the traditional disaster management context and extended to the non-traditional context.

15UNDP Expert Group Meeting: Integrating Disaster Reduction with Adaptation to Climate Change Havana, June 19-21, 2002

22

This has been recognized at the regional level by CDERA, which has adopted a Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) strategy to assist the region to address its vulnerability16. CDM is the basis for integrated management of all natural and human-induced hazards, involving management through all phases of the Disaster Management Cycle (prevention, preparedness, mitigation, response, recovery and restoration). CDM is intended to engage the public and private sectors, civil society, urban and rural communities, and the general population in hazard prone areas. CDM is therefore multi-hazard and multi-sectoral in its application and is concerned primarily with integrating vulnerability assessment and risk reduction into development planning and management. In this CDM paradigm, disaster management has to become “a comprehensive integrated approach to natural hazard risk management”17 and has to be “integrated into the development processes of CDERA member states”18. CDM implementation is expected to contribute to vulnerability reduction of the Caribbean region to hazard impacts through building a ‘culture of safety’ amongst all strategic partners. 2.4 Disaster/Risk Management The contemporary approach to disaster management treats it as a cycle of activities covering prevention, preparedness, mitigation, response, recovery and restoration (the Disaster Management Cycle) 19. These activities are normally carried out in distinct phases in relation to the occurrence of a disaster20, viz:

Before the Disaster – when the emphasis should be on prevention, preparedness and mitigation;

During the Disaster – when the event is actually occurring and the range of

response activities will be determined by the nature of the event; and After the Disaster – when the emphasis should be on response, recovery and

restoration. It is also possible to initiate mitigation activities during this phase. It is also generally recognized that, “In planning for emergencies and disasters, the stage before an adverse event is the most important”21. Implicit in this conceptualisation of the Disaster Management Cycle, is the need to conduct preliminary assessments to inform the activities to be carried out during the management cycle. The main activities required in this regard are the conduct of vulnerability analyses and hazard mapping. Such analyses would identify the hazards to 16 Excerpted from Matrix of Disaster Management Strategies for CDERA Participating States, 2001 – 2005 17 CDERA, Background to Seminar on Climate Change and severe weather events in Asia and the Caribbean 18 CDERA, Ibid 19 CDERA 20 PAHO, Emergencies and Disasters in Drinking Water Supply and Sewerage Systems: Guidelines for Effective Response 21 PAHO, pg. 14

23

which the country or region is exposed and assess the ability of the country or region to cope with each of the potential hazards. The gaps or weaknesses identified in this process would then be used to inform the types of prevention, mitigation and preparedness activities that have to be focused upon by the disaster management personnel. This need for preliminary analysis to inform the activities in the Disaster Management Cycle is treated explicitly in the Risk Management approach to climate change being promoted under the ACCC project22. That approach has two (2) main components23, viz:

Risk Assessment – which seeks to evaluate the degree of exposure (vulnerability) to an event and offers a range of options for risk reduction. This is an objective, technical process.

Risk Management - refers to the selection and implementation of an option or

options for building resilience to the identified vulnerabilities.

The Risk Assessment stage, which MUST be done before a disaster, also requires the conduct of vulnerability analyses to assess the degree to which elements are exposed to specific hazards and the ability of these elements to cope with these hazards. These vulnerability analyses should be accompanied by hazard mapping to clearly establish the parts of the country or region that are vulnerable to each of the specific hazards. The Risk Management stage requires the development of options for building resilience. These are applicable to every stage of the disaster cycle – before, during, after – and include prevention options, mitigation options or preparedness options done before the disaster occurs, or response, recovery and restoration options done after the disaster has impacted. This combination of the disaster management cycle/risk management construct will be used as the conceptual framework within which to analyse the current or planned programmes and/or initiatives for reducing vulnerabilities in climate change and disaster management in Caribbean SIDS. The framework will use the explicit approach to risk assessment contained in the risk management approach as the first stage of the process and will use the various stages of the disaster management cycle to elaborate the options that are available for responding to a hazard/disaster (the risk management stage of the process).

22 ACCC (Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean) is a regional project funded by CIDA with an emphasis on (a) capacity-building in support of vulnerability assessments to socio-economic sectors: health, water resources, and agriculture; and (b) public education and outreach 23 Excerpted from “Risk Management and Climate Change” – presented by Dr. Neville Trotz to a Seminar on Climate Change and Severe Weather Events in Asia and the Caribbean, Grand Barbados Beach Resort, Carlisle Bay, Barbados, 24–25 July 2003

24

CHAPTER 3

SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS OF ASSESSMENT FINDINGS 3.0 INTRODUCTION The assessment for capacity in risk management and vulnerability reduction for the sub-set of Caribbean countries, undertaken between August-December 2003, identified a number of limitations and weaknesses in national and regional capacities. The current situation with regards to existing capacity is in general very weak, requiring significant attention and regional cooperation if the region is to have the requisite capacity at the individual, institutional and systemic levels to address, in an effective and efficient manner, the growing cost of conventional disasters and the increases that is expected to accompany global climate change in the longer term. A summary of the findings, according to the four outputs in the Terms of Reference, is as follows: 3.2 Terms Of Reference: Output 1 Review current or planned programmes and/or initiatives for reducing vulnerabilities in both areas (climate change and disaster management), and identify gaps and needs (capacity, institutional, policy and technical) associated with their implementation. 3.2.1 Review of Current/Planned Programmes and/or Initiatives for Reducing

Vulnerabilities in Climate Change and Disaster Management The following is a summary of these initiatives in the sub-set of countries studied that are developing capacity. All of the programmes identified below possess capacity building components although the level of resources and other factors vary. These programmes should be seen as representing important elements of the overall capacity framework for adaptation to climate change related disaster risk. The activities are presented by countries and are disaggregated into the three classes of capacity development as defined by the Capacity Development Initiative of the UNDP/CDI, namely systemic, institutional and individual. Each initiative is therefore assessed as to the level at which it would have the most significant impact, of course, recognizing that there will always be synergistic linkages, in cases where there is a significant second degree impact. These initiatives are also listed under that level of capacity building. Utilizing this method of classification will also assist in identifying gaps. 3.2.2 Regional Programmes – Systemic, Institutional & Individual Capacities: Antigua & Barbuda; Dominica; Barbados; Grenada; Cuba ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Systemic Capacity • NCSP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) The Adaptation Policy Framework project is an approach to developing adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to advance adaptation in the face of climate variability

25

and climate change. The APF aims to link climate change adaptation to sustainable development and other global environmental issues and to build on the initial experience of climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies, and complement existing adaptation methodological guidance developed by IPCC and UNEP. The APF is intended to enable near-term action on adaptation particularly in relation to assisting developing countries in incorporating identification of adaptation priorities into their national communications processes. The APF places particular attention on recent experiences with climate variability and extreme events as a guide for assessing vulnerability and adaptation responses to the likely impacts of global climate change. The APF process is intended to result in a set of adaptation strategies, policies and measures that a country can readily implement. However, the project is also proposed to reduce the potential negative impacts and exploit the opportunities of climate variability and change, and to enhance the capacity to adapt. The project is operationalised through a series of global technical workshops, the development of technical papers, a users guidebook, and via electronic and hard copy distribution of materials intended to strengthen capacities for adaptation at the implementation level. The project is administered from UNDP headquarters in New York. • Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Programme (CHAMP) The CHAMP is intended to allow Caribbean countries to develop comprehensive natural hazard vulnerability reduction initiatives through development of national hazard mitigation policies, creation of appropriate policy implementation programmes through comprehensive hazard mitigation frameworks and the development and implementation of safer building training and certification programmes. The project seeks the integration of hazard concerns into development planning and includes components designed to allow for capacity development at systemic, institutional, and individual levels through activities relating to policy development, data collection, development of management plans, hazard mapping and vulnerability assessment, and training and certification programmes. Outputs expected from CHAMP include:

Assisting countries to develop a Hazard Mitigation Policy. Presentation packages targeting political leadership in the region in support of

comprehensive vulnerability reduction; Assessment of the legislative, fiscal and technical capabilities and constraints for

implementing hazard mitigation activities in pilot countries;

Atlases of hazard maps and assessments of the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in each of the target countries; and

26

Implementation of project responsibilities rests with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) in conjunction with the Organization of American States (OAS) with funding of Can$2.3M provided primarily by the government of Canada.

Institutional Capacity • Climate Change Enabling Activity These activities are intended to equip Antigua and Barbuda with the technical resources and capabilities for fulfilling its reporting responsibilities under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This includes preparation of an inventory of greenhouse gases, undertaking vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and an indication of steps being taken to fulfill obligations under the UNFCCC. Most significant for adaptation is that at present, these activities constitute the principal mechanism for transfer of methodologies and tools for vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The country has already submitted its initial national communications report and is expected to begin the process for preparation of the second national communications shortly. In addition to the immediate reporting requirements of the UNFCCC, the enabling activities can be seen as assisting in raising national capabilities through training and information exchange. In terms of capacity building, the programme utilises primarily local resource persons with oversight and guidance provided by international experts. There has also been provision, on a limited scale, of information and communications technologies. A national workshop on climate modelling using the VANDACLIM software distributed by UNDP/NCSP has been conducted to expose local resource persons to vulnerability methodologies. Some limited public awareness activities have also been conducted. Training is also envisaged for the start of the second national communication. Funding has been provided by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and UNDP, to the amount of US$261,000, over five years. Plans are underway for hosting of the climate change website on the Met Office’s website. • Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) The MACC Project is the successor to the Caribbean Project for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) that was successfully concluded in December 2001. MACC is a US$10.9m Project that will be financed by the Global Environment Facility ($5m); the participating Governments (in kind) to a value of $3.1m; the Government of Canada ($2m); and the Government of the United States of America through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in kind, to a value of $0.8m. The project’s objective is to create the capacity and the environment within CARICOM countries to implement adaptation measures to minimise the adverse impact of climate change. The main elements of the project include expanding and strengthening the

27

technical and information capacity to assess vulnerability and the risks associated with global climate change to build the capacity to formulate adaptation policy options to reduce vulnerability; to support specific adaptation measures or (demonstration projects); to encourage regional positions on adaptation; and the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change in national development planning and public and private sector development strategies. The predecessor CPACC project has played a pivotal role in creating awareness of concerns for climate change among Caribbean governments, developing initial climate change databases, and contributing to technical capacity on climate change in the Caribbean. Significantly, the MACC is aimed at the establishment of a permanent regional institutional capability, under the CARICOM framework, for ensuring sustained attention to climate change adaptation issues. Some attention has already been played through the CPACC/MACC modalities for involving disaster management practitioners in various workshops and consultations pertaining to climate change. Administrative arrangements for the establishment of the MACC are presently underway. • Comprehensive Approach for Disaster Management in the Caribbean This two-year US$ 210,000 project is intended to provide Caribbean countries with guidance as to the process for integrating comprehensive disaster management into development planning through development of a regional strategy, strengthening CDERA’s capacities in this area, and building national level support for the strategy. In terms of capacity development, this project targets development of system-wide policy relevant processes and strategies aimed at reducing vulnerability and risks. Project activities concluded in 2003, and were administered by CDERA. Funding for the project has come primarily from UNDP and the government of the USA. • Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Project The overall goal of this project is to mitigate damages in CDERA member states particularly for the flood hazard. The emphasis on this hazard is in keeping with the findings of the Status of Disaster Preparedness in CDERA Participating States conducted in May 2001, which identified floods as the most common event - occurring in 90 per cent of CDERA Participating States in the last five years. However, in contrast, only 25 per cent of these countries have any plans in place to guide disaster management activities for this hazard. The project intends to train, through model works, professionals for hazard mapping and disaster management planning in CDERA, and develop institutional capacity to enable the preparation of hazard maps and disaster management plans for hazard vulnerable areas in the CDERA community. The project’s objectives include strengthening and establishing a system for flood hazard mapping, enhancing the capability for community disaster management, improvement of the capacity of CDERA as a disaster information warehouse/clearing house, enhanced recognition of the importance and usefulness of hazard maps and disaster management

28

plans among member states, provision of equipment for information technology and reinforcement of the database and communication networks, and the delivery of training courses on hazard mapping and community disaster management. Actual project implementation will be on the basis of pilot activities in select countries, with these experiences being shared through training and other technical products with other Caribbean countries. The project activities aim to allow for capacity development at systemic, institutional, and individual levels. These are embodied in management tools at the national level, provision of needed capital inputs for information and communications technologies, and efforts to upgrade skills among personnel involved in community and technical levels. The project is being implemented in Barbados, St. Vincent & the Grenadines and Trinidad & Tobago, and will benefit from formal collaboration being established with regional institutions such as the University of the West Indies (UWI) and the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH). The outputs of the project will be shared with all participating states for adoption and adaptation where appropriate. The project will aid in the preparation of flood hazard maps for the model sites, and prepare a manual for flood hazard mapping. There will also be an assessment of the current status of Community Disaster Management, the preparation of Community Disaster Management plans incorporating the hazard maps prepared by the model project, and the preparation of a manual for Community Disaster Management planning as it relates to flooding. The efforts to achieve integration of this disaster project is implemented by CDERA and funded by the government of Japan at a cost of US$3m. Individual Capacity The MACC Project is the successor to the Caribbean Project for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC). This project will help to develop individual capacity through a number of workshops that will be held as part of the implementation as well as by increasing availability and access to information and analytical tools. The CPACC helped to strengthen individual capacity in a number of Caribbean SIDS, and also laid the foundation for the current Graduate programme at the UWI in Climate Change Management. DOMINICA Systemic • Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Programme (CHAMP) This project is described above.

29

Institutional • Climate Change Enabling Activity These activities are intended to assist Dominica with the technical resources and capabilities for fulfilling its reporting responsibilities under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The major activities and links to capacity development were outlined earlier. • Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) The MACC project is described above. • Comprehensive Approach for Disaster Management in the Caribbean This two-year US$ 210,000 project was described earlier. Individual The MACC project is described above. BARBADOS Systemic Capacity • Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Project This project is described above. • Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Programme (CHAMP) As described above, this project is seeking to enhance regional capacity to reduce vulnerability to the effects of natural hazards. This will be done through the development of national hazard mitigation policies and implementation programmes, the promotion of the wider use of hazard information in development decisions and the strengthening of safe building practices building training and certification. While Barbados is not a pilot country for this activity, Barbados will benefit by examining the lessons that are learned from the project. • Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) The MACC project is described above. Institutional • Climate Change Enabling Activity (National Communications) This activity was designed in order to help Barbados in fulfilling its responsibilities under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. While the project included the preparation of a national greenhouse gas inventory, there were some initial vulnerability and adaptation assessments and some training and capacity building for local experts with regards to vulnerability and adaptation. Barbados is currently in phase two of their initial national communications project, and

30

under this phase, Barbados will continue to raise awareness as it relates to climate change adaptation. The project is worth around US$289,000. Individual No activities have been identified at this level. GRENADA Systemic Capacity • Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Programme (CHAMP) This project is described above. Institutional • Climate Change Enabling Activity These activities are intended to assist Grenada with the technical resources and capabilities for fulfilling its reporting responsibilities under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The major activities and links to capacity development were outlined earlier. • Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) The MACC Project was described earlier. Individual The MACC Project was described earlier. CUBA Systemic Capacity LOCATE IN THE annex E Institutional CC:TRAIN The support received from international programs and projects such as CC:TRAIN was crucial in the development of Cuba’s technical capacities for the conduct of various studies and evaluations. Under CC:TRAIN, the National Group on Climate Change (NGCC) was created. The NGCC integrated more than a dozen experts from different organisations and institutions. The Group is being supported by three technical teams that are responsible for carrying out national studies. These technical teams are integrated by specialists from different academic, scientific and technical research institutions, as well as the productive sectors. Under the NGCC, several projects have been implemented and others are ongoing. These

31

projects have facilitated the execution of many research and capacity building activities that are enabling Cuba to fulfil its commitment under the UNFCCC. • Climate Change Enabling Activity (National Communications) In 2001 Cuba submitted its First National Communication to UNFCCC and the process for preparing the second National Communication report is underway. The enabling activity project has served to improve the work of the NGCC and its associated technical team, under the leadership of INSMET. • IPCC WGIII Outreach Programme This project made an important contribution towards the dissemination and explanation of the findings of the IPCC Technical Assessment Reports and related Summary Reports, particularly those related to Working Group III (Mitigation) to key stakeholders (policy makers, industry representatives, academic experts and NGOs). The objectives of the outreach programme were to:

- Improve the understanding among key stakeholders (policy-makers, industry representatives, NGOs and academic experts) in Cuba by disseminating and explaining the main findings of the Technical Assessment Reports (particularly WG III Reports) and related Summary Reports.

- Discuss the impact of the IPCC findings on national climate change response strategies with selected stakeholders

• The CIDA-CCCDF Project This project was designed to build capacity and the transfer of technical knowledge that would ultimately augment Cuba’s ability to adapt and respond to the risks presented by climate change, reduce poverty and pursue sustainable development. The University of Toronto, IndEco Consultant and INSMET jointly execute the project. Among others, the objectives of this collaborative effort are to collaborate with Cuban officials to:

(i) design and deliver, strategic planning exercises and computer-based training, education, and adaptation modules in response to Cuban technical, institutional and policy needs and priorities relating to climate change;

(ii) identify key industries and/or sectors contributing to, or at risk from climate change, and facilitate Cuba’s efforts to integrate them into a strategic national climate change response initiative through workshops, education and technology transfer; and

(iii) support Cuban efforts to integrate climate change into its broader institutional, policy and national goals of sustainable development.

The experiences from this project are indeed a good example of North-South cooperation, where technical teams from each country engage in mutual exchange of knowledge.

32

Technology is transferred through methods and tools, computing equipment is provided, and best practices exchanged. The major lesson learned was the test of a very well conceived approach to facilitate the development of sectoral climate change strategies. Individual

NATIONAL PROGRAMMES

Antigua and Barbuda Currently there are no national programmes ongoing and neither are there any in the planning stages.

Barbados CHECK FOR NATIONAL PROGRAMMES Cuba • “METEORO” Through the Ministry of Defence, to which is attached the Headquarters of Civil Defence (HCD), HCD organizes training exercises to improve disaster preparation and response at different levels of the society. Perhaps the most recognized exercise is the well-known “METEORO” that is carried out annually in preparation for the TC season. In each METEORO exercise, all provinces, municipalities and territories activate their mechanisms against catastrophe, and make a test and revision of the existing institutional plans. METEORO exercises include the participation of all people in Cuba, focussing on a broad range of simulations and activities in different areas. These include evacuation of people in high-risk zones, first aid training, street and drainage cleaning as well as others. All METEORO exercises are monitored and corrective measures applied to improve the actions and outcomes.

Dominica Currently, there are no ongoing programmes at the national level, and based on the discussions, there are no planned programmes. This can easily be explained given the current dire economic conditions that the country is currently experiencing.

Grenada • Grenada Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Project Funded by the World Bank, the project has two components. The first component of the project, therefore, will be called Strengthening Disaster Management Capacity and will include four sub-components: 1) strengthening the National Emergency Relief Organization (NERO), including inter alia rehabilitating the Emergency Operations

33

Center (EOC), strengthening its human resource capacity, elaborating/revising emergency procedures (including protection/evacuation plans and emergency procedures), procuring emergency equipment, rescue tools and supplies, and preparing a comprehensive disaster management training program open to other agencies and communities; 2) developing a country-wide early warning and emergency communications system, including technical assistance and procuring specialized equipment; 3) implementing a shelter program, including training and retrofitting selected public buildings; and 4) capacity-building measures for the Ministry of Works, including training and procuring stocks of prefabricated metallic bridges and gabions.”24 3.2.3 Identification of Gaps and Needs (Capacity, Institutional, Policy and

Technical) associated with Programme Implementation Capacity Needs Analyses of these ongoing programmes, the national history with disasters, the TAR report of likely impacts of climate change, and assessing the current institutional structures, provide the basis for identifying the capacity needs. Institutional Responsibilities Institutional responsibilities for management of disaster situations, pertaining to the various hazards that these countries experienced, rests with a number of agencies. At the centre of civil emergency and disaster response is a government agency or office. This entity will have overall responsibility for coordination of various aspects of disaster response and management, and will also be responsible for provision of support and logistical services during disasters, working in collaboration with various line agencies and organizations such as the Police, Ministry of Health, Meteorological Office, Public Works, Defence Force, and non-governmental organizations such as the Red Cross and churches. This disaster relief entity will usually also work through a system of local committees with the responsibility for facilitating relief and information dissemination at the community level. Among the key information resource capacity of this entity will be mapping of flood prone areas, as well as mapping of possible storm surge scenarios. The assessment exercise identified that these entities face considerable challenges in promoting mitigation activities for natural disasters. At the macro level, policy directives for disaster risk tend to be articulated only during or after disaster events or periods, and relate primarily to crisis management measures. In fact, very frequently, development policy in these countries is leading to increased vulnerability to disaster risk by the failure to adopt hazard or environmental evaluation tools or approaches. This is seen, for example, in the generally unplanned and arbitrary allocation of land for residential and commercial development with only limited attention placed on land capability and level of exposure to disaster risks and hazards.

24 Ibid, pg.11

34

While in some countries (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados and Cuba) legislation and policies have been introduced to provide for the coordinating and management role of the disaster response entity, regulations now need to be developed and resources made available for enforcement. It should, however, be noted that in Dominica and Grenada, there are weak institutional frameworks, characterised by inadequate legislative provisions and absence of national disaster policies focusing on all phases of the disaster management cycle. There is also the need to ensure that technical resources at these disaster response entities, including risk assessment data and other information relevant to mitigation against disasters, are utilized in relation to decision-making on developments in disaster prone areas. At present, technical capabilities of these entities are primarily directed towards the management and coordination of disaster events with only limited resources for addressing longer-term disaster mitigation efforts. Given the long-term likely impacts of climate change, this situation has to be changed. In terms of weather/climate related disasters and hazards, another key agency is the national meteorological service that is responsible for the collection, analysis, communication, and storage of data relating to meteorological and climatic information. Basic capacity of the meteorological service should include meteorology, climatology, and engineering, but, as pointed in the country reports, the majority of the agencies do not currently have such capacity. Dominica and Grenada have very weak agencies. In many countries across the region, representatives of the meteorological service are actively involved in various aspects of work pertaining to climate change, including participation in the work of the IPCC, and in the international negotiations under the UNFCC. This makes the meteorological service a key agency in getting climate change consideration integrated in the national disaster policy. The meteorological service is also the principal source of early warning information in relation to hydro-meteorological conditions, wind, oceanic, cyclonic and all other atmospheric conditions and activity. Well-developed and tested protocols exist for communication of meteorological information to the public and disaster relief agencies. However, data gaps still exist as a result of lack of equipment and other constraints and this restricts the availability of information for more precise analysis of local conditions. This is especially acute in the case of Dominica, and to a lesser extent Grenada, where there is virtually no early warning capacity, and very limited communication capacity. In all the countries, there is, in general, need for additional measurements of temperature, precipitation, oceanic conditions and other parameters so as to provide a more comprehensive understanding of present conditions and changes in climate. Regional cooperation also forms an important responsibility of the meteorological service including through the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, and the regional meetings of the World Meteorological Organization. As noted above other key agencies involved in weather related civil disaster response including the Police, the military, health sector, and community and NGO organizations

35

and voluntary agencies, have very limited capacity and need focused efforts to strengthen capacity. Additionally, there is virtually no awareness about the potential impact of climate change among these actors. These activities can be seen as operating at two levels. Firstly, there is the disaster response phase, largely coordinated through the disaster relief entity aimed at providing relief and emergency response during and immediately after a weather related disaster. Actions at this level are to be based on the national disaster plan comprising sectoral and organisational roles and responsibilities. The second, and perhaps more complex level involves more long-term disaster mitigation activities such as public awareness, enforcement of building construction standards, public health, and improved coordination between agencies. Once again, the likely impacts of climate change make this an extremely important gap that needs to be addressed. The experiences associated with recent hurricanes in the region are instructive from a number of perspectives relevant to discussion of the capacity building needs required for adapting to extreme weather events related to global climate change. First, the physical impacts of the storm in terms of the strength and duration of the event are perhaps indicative of the type of storm activity that can be expected as a consequence of climate change. Second, the impact of hurricanes has highlighted awareness at all levels of the need to address certain types of problems associated with extreme weather events – such as building standards and design, and strengthening of meteorological and disaster response agencies. In countries that suffer frequent hurricanes, such as Antigua and Barbuda and Cuba, these experiences have been internalised into the disaster preparation planning and hence, the degree of destruction and other losses from other damaging weather events have been significantly reduced. This lesson should be more effectively shared within the region. The experiences of the latter half of the 1990s, have therefore resulted in certain advances in capacity for managing existing extreme weather events at the systemic, institutional, and individual levels in these countries. These are reflected in such aspects as a more favourable policy environment in relation to ensuring compliance with relevant building codes, strengthening and updating of the legal authority and role of disaster management entities, and more clearly defined functional responsibilities among the various actors involved in response and management of the impact of extreme weather events. At the individual level, training continues to be a priority for agencies involved in disaster response. There has also been strengthening of management at critical agencies, and some improvements in equipment and technical resources. Nevertheless, major deficiencies in capacity development remain at all levels. To some extent, this reflects the critical nature of government financing as discussed earlier, but it is also reflective of the need for advancing the integration of concerns for disaster reduction and climate change into the mainstream of development planning. There are, however, certain inherent difficulties in developing the systemic capacity

36

required for dealing with complex issues like adaptation to extreme weather events. These include those difficulties arising from the structure of the economy as reflected in the economic information detailed in the country assessment report. Difficulties also reflect the cultural norms and administrative systems that exist. In many instances official/legal bureaucratic stipulations are replaced by systems of informal communication, while rigidities embodied in bureaucratic procedure frustrate efforts for information networking and coordination of action that are required for strengthening of disaster response. Political influence on administrative and technical level decision making also impacts on enforcement at administrative levels, while inadequate understanding at the political level of the significance of the tasks involved has resulted in inadequate attention to equipment and other requirements related to strengthening of the institutional and individual level resource capabilities for disaster management. Perhaps the most serious constraint, however, has been the steady deterioration in government’s ability to provide the level of financial resources needed for implementing and maintaining administrative and operational capabilities in relation to various services. Financial constraints imperil capacity for disaster response in many ways, including in terms of the quality of personnel, logistical, and communications resources. Such difficulties and constraints are even more important in the context of projected intensification in extreme weather events resulting from climate change.

Climate Change Capacity Attempting successful adaptation in Caribbean SIDS, to the increased risks of weather disasters as a result of global climate change, will require strengthening and development at various levels of the capacity development framework. Given the uncertainties surrounding the pace and nature of climate change, adaptation measures should be based on best available scientific knowledge and be directed towards measures that also address existing non-climatic development concerns. In order to do this, it is necessary to integrate existing knowledge of climate change into ongoing development planning and control measures as well as into community stewardship norms. Generally, the challenge is to establish an enabling environment supportive of the types of initiatives that will allow institutions and individuals to adapt to the heightened disaster risks resulting from climate change by developing the necessary skills and taking the necessary actions for reducing vulnerability and enhancing sustainability. Table 3.0 below provides an indication of impacts of climate change on extreme events likely to be of relevance to Caribbean SIDS:

37

Table 3.0: Likely Impacts of Projected Changes in Extreme Climate Events Projected Changes during 21st Century

in extreme climate phenomena and their likelihood

Representative examples of projected impacts

Simple Extremes Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days (very likely)

• Increased incidence of death and illness in high risk groups (cardiovascular patients, elderly, infants)

• Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife

Increasing minimum temperatures • Extended range and improved habitats for some pests and disease vectors

More intense precipitation events • Increased flood, landslide, and mudslide damage

• Increased soil erosion • Increased pressure on government

and private flood insurance systems and disaster relief

Complex Extremes Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, mean and peak precipitation intensities

• Increased risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics, and many other risks

• Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure

• Increased damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves

Intensified droughts and floods associated with El Niňo events

• Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought and flood prone areas

• Health impacts associated with droughts and flood events

• Decreased crop yields • Decreased water resource quality

and quantity • Increased risk of forest and bush

fires Adapted from IPCC, 2001

38

As discussed in Chapter 2, the projections for climate change for the Caribbean SIDS for the next 50 to 100 years, as identified by the IPCC, point to increasingly warmer temperatures including less variation between day-time and night-time temperatures, greater variability in rainfall but with an overall trend towards drier conditions, continuing sea-level rise some of which (based on historical experience), is likely to be above the global average, and the likelihood of stronger, and possibly more frequent, hurricane/tropical storm activity. If no adaptive measures are adopted, the hazards associated with these conditions can be expected to undermine progress in achieving sustainable development. More frequent drought conditions will, for example, exacerbate processes of land degradation already underway in all countries across the region. Increased incidents of heavy precipitation (particularly in conjunction with more prevalent drought conditions) will increase flooding, landslides and damage to sensitive coastal habitats such as coral reefs. Advances achieved across the region in health and human settlements could be reversed by the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change particularly from the impacts of extreme weather events. Table 3.1: Adaptation (Vulnerability Reduction/Resilience Strengthening) Goals Overall goal Specific objective Evaluation criteria

• Sustainable development

• Economic growth and development

• Environmental

protection

• Equity

• National income • Employment • Government finance • Environmental health • Coastal zone

management • Watershed protection • Social mobility • Access to social

services • Quality of life

indicators • Reduced

vulnerability • Minimized risks

• Minimize economic

losses

• Increase institutional capability

• Population at risk • Response capability • Personal losses • Insured losses • Public losses • Planning and

implementation • Legal authorization

Adapted from IPCC 1994

39

The difficulties surrounding attempting to achieve that stage of capacity development for climate change adaptation in the countries in the region include the lack of an overall public policy approach to sustainable development issues despite the commitment to the BPOA, and arising from this, the existing weakness of economic and development planning and control mechanisms, in addition to financial and institutional constraints. At the same time, the experiences with the increased frequency and cost of disasters during the 1990s has facilitated awareness of the importance of certain types of disaster vulnerability and risk reduction measures across the region. At the implementation level, adaptation to climate change is likely to be based on past experiences, especially the most recent experiences and on efforts to reduce existing vulnerabilities and risks, while incorporating understanding of future climate scenarios and associated vulnerabilities and risks. However, as documented in the country assessment reports, the present level of awareness about climate change in the countries is very limited, and with the exception of Grenada that has established a National Climate Change Committee, the other countries position is to treat it as an externally funded activity. Despite the success of the regional CPACC project, which resulted in the establishment of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) and the new regional project, MACC, the threat posed by climate change is understood by only a few in these countries. The ideas generated by CPACC and other externally funded initiatives focused on building awareness and capacity at the national level, remains unimplemented. This represents a formidable challenge for the region as minimizing vulnerability to climate change will require including consideration about its impacts in every aspect of public policy. Based on the present situation, there is a long way to go. Seen from this perspective, there is a great demand for capacity development, however, the five most critical areas for capacity development in relation to reducing-vulnerability/resilience-strengthening to likely disaster events associated with climate change at this time are:

Public Awareness and Education. Risk Identification and Forecasting to Understand and Identify Vulnerability and

Disaster Risk. Disaster Preparedness to Enhance Readiness to Cope Promptly and Effectively

With a Disaster Emergency. Disaster Mitigation to Address Structural Sources of Disaster Risk and

Vulnerability Including Insurance. There is no hierarchy among these, however, public awareness, and education in particular, is urgently necessary to establish an enabling environment that will allow the others to be addressed. The extent to which capacities exist for enabling the realization of these goals will be

40

critical to determining the level of success of minimizing the damages from weather related hazards that will be enhanced by global climate change. As can be deduced from the summary of ongoing and planned activities, while there are activities targeted to some of these capacity needs at the various levels, this is very limited, and much more is required. Additionally, with few exceptions, the capacity building components of these activities have no linkages with each other so the capacity that is being developed is predominately uncoordinated. 3.2.4 Addressing Capacity Development Gaps This section analyses the extent to which capabilities already exist with regards to those identified above and makes a preliminary identification of the areas where further capacity development is required in order to strengthen capacity for the prevention and mitigation of disasters to the greatest extent possible within the context of ongoing and projected changes in the global climate. Public Awareness and Education The first essential component of efforts to address climate change is increasing awareness and education of the phenomenon, at all levels, in the nations in the region. The importance of awareness and education stems from climate change being a phenomenon that will affect virtually every aspect of life. It is therefore necessary for the population to understand actions that may assist them in adaptation, either through mitigating the adverse impacts or by enhancing any positive effects that might emerge. Given the complex nature of climate change, what is required at this stage is that key personnel are aware of relevant information and can transmit this to the public in an appropriate manner. In the context of efforts to reduce the expected adverse effects of climate change on disaster risk, it becomes necessary to ensure that persons involved in disaster response, meteorology, public health and other agencies on the front-line of disaster response have an understanding of the main features of climate change. Activities such as those by the CPACC/MACC project to increase collaboration with the disaster response community are therefore vital. In view of the significance of climate change to increasing the risk of disasters, this type of sensitisation will be essential to encouraging professionals in disaster management to incorporate climate change related concerns into disaster mitigation programmes and plans. The ultimate aim here is to ensure that personnel involved in measures for managing risk are aware of the likely effects of climate change on hazards associated with disaster response and are in a position to incorporate these concerns into their work and planning. Initial efforts should include participation in regional climate change seminars and workshops. At the national level, efforts should continue to involve the agency in the ongoing efforts to meet the requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

41

At a wider community level it will be important that there is some understanding of climate change so that households, communities, businesses, and decision-makers at all levels are aware of actions that enhance disaster risk and vulnerability and those that promote adaptation. Wide ranging public education and awareness will be crucial to attempts to promote adaptive responses to climate change impacts on natural disasters. At the national level, disaster awareness activities and programmes being implemented by disaster management entities and other front-line disaster agencies should incorporate knowledge of ongoing and projected changes in climate. If these goals are to be realized, system level resources, particularly financial and human resources must be made available for development and implementation. Following this, an appropriate institutional structure will have to be established and personnel hired and trained. This in itself requires recognition at the policy formulation level of the importance of the issues and commitment to allocation of scarce resources towards this goal. At present, some limited public awareness of climate change has been undertaken utilising external funding and local technical resources. However, a major impediment is the absence of an entity specifically charged with the mandate and resources for climate change, including public awareness, on a sustained basis in the majority of countries. However, in Grenada and Cuba, national committees have been established, this represents a first step, but this will not be sufficient to achieve the goal. As noted previously, there is also lack of a transparent, comprehensive or consistent national planning framework for sustainable development. A major reflection of this is the ongoing preparation for the International Meeting to review the BPOA. Despite commitment at very high levels to the BPOA, which has climate change as the number one priority, there is no county in the region that has developed a comprehensive national strategy with associated policy and implementation mechanisms. Consequently, there is an absence of any overall policy for sustainable development that unfortunately is interpreted in nearly all countries as being equivalent to environmental protection. The absence of an overall policy framework for sustainable development reduces the likelihood for the type of inter-agency coordination and networking required for stakeholder participation and ownership, as well as reducing the likelihood of effective implementation and monitoring. Public awareness and education is itself critical to overcoming these constraints by creating constituencies of support for capacity development to address climate change, a subject that remains comparatively new on the development agenda. In this context, the role of regional and international agencies also assumes greater significance as agents for articulating and increasing awareness of climate change as a primary development concern that should be integrated into ongoing and future development activities. Risk Identification and Forecasting Forecast changes in global climate can be expected to adversely impact risk levels

42

associated with such events as floods and storm surge. The risk identification process involves an understanding of a country’s natural hazards, assessing the level of vulnerability to them, and the preparation of risk identification studies for disaster mitigation activities. Important elements of the risk identification process include hazard monitoring and forecasting. A study by the Association of Caribbean States (ACS)25 indicates that Antigua and Barbuda is one of the Caribbean territories that have done the most work in identifying a number of the principal meteorological hazards that affect the region; other countries need to follow this example. This work includes GIS mapping of flood prone areas as well as storm surge modelling. These tools allow disaster managers to assess the risks associated with particular locations based on available weather information, and to issue warnings26. A principal challenge facing all countries is in getting the information pertaining to flood and other risks incorporated into the development control and management process. At present, public sector agencies with responsibility for approving development projects are not required to coordinate or consult with disaster management entities. Given the anticipated intensification in extreme weather events, there is need for legislation to ensure that this happens. Another challenge is to maintain and update the available risk mapping data. There is need for capacity within the disaster management entity to produce this type of information and not be dependent on other agencies for this information, given the importance of this type of data to disaster mitigation and response and the likely increase in weather related disaster events as a result of climate change. These challenges and circumstances indicate capacity development needs at systemic, institutional and individual levels. At the macro policy level, the need exists for stronger commitment to development control and the integration of climate change concerns (e.g., sea-level rise and warmer temperatures) into the development approval process. Particular attention should also be given to training of personnel to enable them to more effectively implement legislative and regulatory standards. Stakeholder involvement and consultation are also necessary to ensure the appropriateness of any new standards or requirements, and to foster public support and enforcement at the agency level. Disaster Preparedness Anticipated intensification in extreme weather events particularly high winds, floods and landslides, and destruction of infrastructure and shelter, will require an increased capability to cope with the increased risk of death and injury from these events. Notwithstanding the important strides in disaster management during the decade of the 1990’s, Caribbean SIDS will need to further improve national readiness to respond

25 Survey of the Strengths, Weaknesses and Projects for Disaster management in ACS countries, Association of Caribbean States: Port-of-Spain, Trinidad. November 2000. 26 One area where additional risk identification needs to be done is in relation to bush and forest fires as projections for drier conditions mean that the likelihood of these events, already a threat to ecology and property, can be expected to increase.

43

rapidly and effectively to save lives, reduce suffering and enhance recovery in the event of disaster. Measures required in this regard include strengthening early warning and communications systems; preparation of contingency plans by utility companies and other providers of basic services; and enhancement of emergency shelters. The national meteorological office should have the capacity to provide high quality meteorological forecasts, a factor believed to have contributed substantially to the low fatality figures of recent years. Communications systems utilised for disaster preparedness range from the news media for public information to closed circuit communications between key agencies. In terms of strengthening early warning and communications systems, financial constraints have militated against the purchase of Doppler radar facilities that would provide real time full coverage of wind speeds and other critical parameters at the national level. Arising from the experiences of the previous intense hurricanes, some utility companies have in place disaster management plans. The same applies to a greater and lesser extent to other providers of basic and essential services such as the airport and hospital. In some cases, lack of technical capacity hinders the process of development and testing of emergency plans and this presents a serious obstacle to overall efforts at strengthening disaster response capabilities. The projected impacts of global climate change means that shelters must increasingly be purpose-built to function as emergency shelters in addition to their other normal uses. Engineering and architectural expertise must therefore be utilized to ensure that emergency shelters are available at the required standard for use. Climate change will mean heightened demands on shelter facilities that will increasingly require trained shelter managers for fulfilling these responsibilities. Actions for development of adaptive capacity for disaster preparedness in a context of climate change will therefore require action by a range of stakeholders. This points to the importance of further strengthening of those institutions with key disaster response administration and coordination capabilities and the necessity for those agencies to be able to provide technical support on adaptive measures to stakeholders in public and private sectors. These institutions will require clear legal mandates and the technical and administrative ability to fulfil the functions above. At all three levels of the capacity development paradigm, there is need for action to enable reduction in vulnerability to extreme events that can likely be expected from climate change. Policy level commitment is required to ensure that serious efforts are devoted to the preparation and testing of emergency management procedures and that the skills are imparted, at public and private sector levels, for the development and implementation of these procedures. Community action and mobilisation are essential for disaster preparedness and financial and human resources need to be allocated to strengthening this level of adaptive action in the context of the challenges arising from climate change. This requires system level commitment in terms of financial resources, a

44

supportive policy environment, and commitment to ensuring capacities at the agency level. Additionally, pursuit of such measures will require that institutional level resources are available in terms of an effectively structured, staffed and financed entity capable of meeting the expanding scope of responsibilities it is likely to face as a result of the increase in weather related hazards associated with climate change. Finally, at the level of the individual, issues such as adequacy of training, motivation, and reward are likely to be crucial considerations in light of generally low indicators on these parameters in the public service.

Given the existing weaknesses at the national level, there is the need for strengthening ongoing efforts by CDERA and others to support national level disaster management agencies through technical assistance, best practice guidance, and development of technical specifications in areas such as standards for shelter facilities. Present activities by CDERA needs to be expanded. Disaster Mitigation Disaster mitigation refers to attempts to reduce the long-term risk from natural hazards to people, property and development processes. Mitigation activities range from the design of engineering works such as retrofitting of buildings to environmental measures such as controlling the movement of soil. Non-structural mitigation measures include the design and application of building codes and standards, land use planning, and community awareness and education campaigns. A number of Caribbean SIDS (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, and Grenada) already have in place a modern building code incorporating measures for hurricane and earthquake resistance. The major problems relate to low level or lack of enforcement of these standards. This primarily stems from limited manpower attributable to limited financial resources as discussed previously. There is need for greater awareness as to the types of structural measures that reduce property risks, and insurance companies should be called upon to play a major role in promoting adoption of structural standards for buildings. There is also need for awareness to promote proactive management of the environment for reducing the threats to persons and property from disaster risks, particularly aimed at mitigating landslides in heavy rains and coastal erosion in beach-front areas One major gap in the context of efforts to reduce disaster risk is the absence of any legal requirement for conduct of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for particular categories of development. Although EIAs have been conducted on a few projects, primarily tourism, it is not clear what criteria are used for final decision making on the scope or nature of the development. It should also be said that EIAs are usually done in the final stages of the planning and under tremendous political pressure for positive outcomes. In many instances, lack of understanding of disaster risk processes has

45

resulted in such environmental and disaster risk features as development in hazard prone areas such as dry stream courses. More importantly, for disaster risk reduction, the EIA can provide a scientific and transparent tool for incorporating concerns about disaster mitigation into development and would be an important step in getting concerns for disaster risk reduction incorporated into development planning. In addition to regulatory efforts, opportunities exist for promoting climate change adaptation through disaster mitigation efforts involving financial incentives27. Insurance companies in Antigua and Barbuda are already using financial measures to promote adoption of hurricane resistant techniques in building construction and have re-appraised premiums on coastal properties considered to be particularly at risk to storm surge. Such policies on the part of insurance companies reflects concern, at regional and international corporate levels, of risks associated with global climate change and it is likely that there is still comparatively limited appreciation within the insurance industry in the Caribbean of the risk management issues relevant to climate change. Insurance companies should develop capacity to introduce a programme for premium reductions based on the types of mitigation measures (such as hurricane shutters) being used by the policyholder. Where professional engineering expertise is utilised in the design and construction stages of the property, reductions in premiums should be realised. There is need for greater awareness at the level of civil society of the factors contributing to the types of disaster risks that can be expected to worsen as a result of climate change, and of the actions that should be taken to address these problems. Opportunities for advancing disaster mitigation concerns in a context of climate change will be dependent on the availability of national institutions with sufficient technical and other capacities for promoting adaptation. As with the other priority areas above, the existence of a favourable policy environment will be essential in providing the platform for the development of functional agencies with the legal mandate, technical capabilities, and fiscal resources able to facilitate adaptation to future extreme weather events. The existing constraints to capacity development in this area suggests the utility of regional approaches particularly given the commonalities among technical and capacity needs within the Caribbean28. 3.3 Terms of Reference: Output 2 Recommend, where possible, strategies and policies for the region, with a particular focus on sectoral areas that have not been adequately considered within existing and planned projects. Arising from a set of circumstances that include small size and geographical location in the Atlantic hurricane zone, Caribbean SIDS are already at risk from the physical and socio-economic consequences of traditional extreme weather events and economic globalisation. The potentially devastating impacts of global climate change, and in

27 Antigua and Barbuda participated in a pilot activity on economic instruments under the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACCC) project. 28 See ACS, “Survey of Strengths, Weaknesses and Projects for Disaster Management in ACS Countries”.

46

particular the effect that this could have on the nature of extreme weather events such as hurricanes and droughts, makes future development prospects of Caribbean SIDS more daunting. As pointed out by the IPCC in its Third Assessment Report (TAR), it noted that while adaptation to measured changes in climate could possibly be adapted to, the prospect of rapid adverse trends in extreme weather events will be much more difficult to cope with: in fact, many communities in the region have difficulties coping with present day weather extremes. Minimizing future destruction from natural hazards will be determined by two principal factors: the level of preparedness and the type of development philosophy followed. If this premise is accepted, the two critical capacity development strategies and associated policies that the region must adopt are:

1. Capacity for Sustainable Development Planning and Integrated Policy Formulation

2. Capacity for Integrated Climate Risk Management Strategies • Capacity for Sustainable Development Planning and Integrated Policy

Formulation The UNCED Conference of 1992, the Barbados Conference of 1994, and the WSSD of 2002, all confirmed that a sustainable development strategy is the most appropriate and desirable philosophy to guide the development of SIDS. Despite this, however, Caribbean SIDS, aided by international organisations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in the majority of cases, continue to receive advice from these international organisations to adopt conventional economic growth policies. These are policies which continually fail as a result of the uniqueness of SIDS, as laid out in the BPOA. At the national level, lack of capacity to plan and formulate policy consistent with sustainable development results in governments continuing to set policies that are aimed at growing the gross domestic product. In the majority of cases, economic development planning agencies and senior government decision-makers associate the term sustainable development with only the environmental dimension, neglecting to recognize its social and economic dimensions. Among Caribbean SIDS, there has been no meaningful progress in implementing the BPOA, consequently, there has been no meaningful progress of the economic and social pillars of sustainable development. This lack of progress has made these countries more vulnerable to external events, a major one being global climate change and sea level rise. As pointed in the report, Vulnerability of Small Islands Developing States, 29 these countries’ overall vulnerability continues to increase as a result of international development and the guiding philosophy of national development. This increasing vulnerability will mean greater destruction from natural hazards regardless of the level of preparedness and supporting capacity.

29 Vulnerability of Small Islands Developing States in UNDP Development Policy Journal Volume 1 August 2002.

47

According to the UN Secretary General, the major reasons behind the limited progress of SIDS in implementing the BPOA, as pointed out in his report to UNGA, in September 1999, at the five-year review of the BPOA, were capacity limitations and limited financial resources. This diagnosis was validated by the some 400 unsolicited proposals prepared by SIDS, seeking to mobilize financial resources at the September 1999 meeting. Of approximately 400 proposals prepared, greater than 90 per cent were for support with capacity building. The institutionalisation of sustainable development as the philosophy for development would significantly change the national perspective. For example, under the conventional paradigm of economic growth, the national situation in Caribbean SIDS can be summarized as being characterized by:

o Sectoral compartmentalisation and conflicts in planning and implementation.

o Significant inefficiency in public sector investment. o Lack of synergy between portfolios. o Absence of human resources development strategy and ever increasing

dependence upon external expertise, and technology. o Short-term planning horizons. o Limited enforcement of land use. o Very limited transparency, accountability, and access to information. o Limited participation of civil society groups; and o Political polarization.

Adaptation of the sustainable development paradigm based on its basic principles of integration, information and participation would bring about the following changes:

o Longer-term planning horizons. o Sectoral integration that would increase synergy and the efficiency that

limited resources are invested to provide for future well-being. o Allow for greater participation of all citizens, improving transparency and

accountability. o Significantly reduce political polarisation as the issue is no longer about

who has better plans, as planning is a collective efforts of all citizens who wish to participate, but about governance (management).

o Rationale approach to human resources development. This difference can best be illustrated for the case of energy, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, and to a lesser extent Barbados. Caribbean SIDS depend on importation of petroleum for all commercial and industrial energy needs. However, the largest natural resource that these countries have is renewable sources of energy (biomass, solar, wind, and ocean), yet there is no active regional plan for the development of this resource to minimize dependence on imports. Despite the changing terms of trade

48

for the last three decades, relative to the goods and services that these countries export in order to purchase petroleum, and the negative economic, social and environmental impact that arises from the highly volatile nature of this commodity on the global market, opportunities to provide energy in the form of electricity and transportation fuel from the agricultural sector to displace imports remain unexploited. Opportunities to convert waste into electricity to displaced imported petroleum likewise remain untapped, while at the same time many countries seek loans to build waste disposal facilities, and suffer unintended consequences such as pollution of coastal areas and fresh water resource as a result of inappropriate disposal. Sewage, instead of being resources with potential to provide water and inputs into the agricultural sector, is a major environmental problem and public health threat. While at the same time, agencies responsible for water resources management seek to build desalination facilities, which require high levels of energy provided from imported petroleum to function, to meet increasing demand. Ironically, it is the emission from the consumption of petroleum that are responsible for more that seventy-five percent of the so called greenhouse gases that are responsible for global climate change and sea level rise that threaten Caribbean SIDS, with increased destruction from hydro-meteorological events. If survival of the rural population depends on farmers using systems that steep slopes bare of vegetation, and thereby leaving them exposed to severe erosion during heavy rains, which then results in lowland flooding and destruction of infrastructure and degradation of marine environment, then this will only have one consequence - increased vulnerability. These are but a few examples of how the conventional sectoral based system of governance, focused on short-term economic policy, continues to make the Caribbean SIDS more vulnerable to external forces. The sooner the leadership of the region make commitments to develop the capacity to plan and implement sustainable development, and so address the structural weakness that make damage from natural events, is the sooner they will begin minimising the potential damage from natural disasters. The first requirement is developing the requisite individual and institutional capacity and to accomplish this they need collective action, as no single country in the region has the available resources to put in place the facilities to develop such capacity. • Capacity for Integrated Climate Risk Management Different approaches to manage and reduce climate related risks have been attempted by the humanitarian, development, environmental and climate change communities. Since the 1970’s, the discourse within the broader disaster risk management community has undergone a gradual paradigm shift from response to improved response preparedness; to hazard mitigation to vulnerability reduction; to integrated disaster risk management. The risk conscious development community has also attempted to promote more integrated schemes where risk considerations are factored into development programmes. The environmental community has increasingly seen the relevance of environmental

49

management and good resource use for hazard control and reduction. However, despite the awareness raised by the UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) in the 1990’s, disaster risks have continued to accumulate. Most national and international efforts continue to be fundamentally preparedness and response focused. A large number of successful experiences, however, in Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa, in which different risk management approaches were piloted, have built up a substantial body of knowledge on the theory and practice of risk management. These experiences provide a glimpse into the future of risk management, if they were to be mainstreamed and applied as part of an integrated programme. In parallel, the scientists and organizations examining the problem of global climate change have gradually expanded their approach from an initial concern with the causes of climate change, through a concern with modelling its potential effects. For example, in terms of sea level rise and desertification, towards a concern with how societies and economies can adapt to changing climatic conditions. In programme terms, this has led, on the one hand, to international efforts, through the UNFCCC, to mitigate climate change through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and on the other hand to the assessment of countries’ vulnerabilities to climate change and the design of adaptation strategies. In recent years, there has been an increasing commitment to and emphasis on adaptation rather than just mitigation. In the same way, however, as the disaster risk management community within the Caribbean has failed in practice to substantially move beyond response and preparedness, the climate change community has not yet been able to move beyond fairly theoretical formulations of vulnerability and adaptation, towards concrete plans and programmes of action. As noted in the country assessment section of this report, all these countries have totally separate institutional systems that exist for promoting adaptation to climate change on the one hand, and disaster risk management on the other hand even though in some cases (e.g., Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados), through representation on the disaster management agency oversight and planning committee, professionals with responsibility for climate change are involved in the work of the disaster management agency. The efforts to design strategies to adapt societies to the effects of climate change and national efforts to manage the disaster risks associated with extreme climate events remain fundamentally divorced. Integrated climate risk management, as a national strategy for Caribbean SIDS, would address both the hazards and vulnerabilities which configure particular risk scenarios and would range in scale from actions to manage the local manifestations of global climate risk, through to global measures to reduce hazard (for example, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and to reduce vulnerability (by increasing the social and economic

50

resilience of vulnerable Caribbean SIDS as proposed in the UNDP Vulnerability Team report30). Integrated climate risk management would need to include elements of anticipatory risk management (ensuring that future development reduces rather than increases risk), compensatory risk management (actions to mitigate the losses associated with existing risk) and reactive risk management (ensuring that risk is not reconstructed after disaster events). The strategy of integrated climate risk management take into account both potential impacts on socio-economic and environmental systems, and therefore provides the framework for the disaster community to move beyond the still dominant focus on preparedness and response and for the climate change community to move beyond the design of hypothetical future adaptation strategies. Such a framework starts from a clear concept that climate related risk is one of the central development issues of our time, and the achievement of the UN Millennium Goals will not be possible unless climate related risks are significantly managed and reduced. At the national level, integrated climate risk management strategies, plans and programmes would be developed on the dispersed institutional and administrative mechanisms, projects, human and financial resources currently applied to disaster risk management as well as adaptation to climate change and other related areas such as land degradation, and water resources, energy and waste management. Risk is manifested and losses occur at the local level, and it is at this level that national and international support to integrated climate risk management has to be realised and capacities strengthened. Ultimately, integrated climate risk management needs to take root at the local level as most climate related disaster events are small to medium scale and have spatially delimited local impacts. Climate related risk, aggravated by processes of global economic and climatic change, poses a central unresolved development issue for Caribbean SIDS. Current approaches towards managing disaster risk and adaptation to climate change fail to address the issue for different reasons as so vividly demonstrated by the case of Dominica. The first is still predominantly focused on response to disaster events and fails to address the configuration of hazards, vulnerabilities and risks. There is a growing urgent need to bring risk management and sustainable development concerns and practices together. The second focuses on the impact of future climate change on risk, but fails to make the connection with currently existing climate related risk events and patterns. At the same time, both approaches are divorced both in concept and in terms of the institutional arrangements and programming mechanisms at the national levels within Caribbean SIDS. If development is to be protected and advanced in countries affected by climate risks, an integrated approach to climate risk management needs to be promoted, building on successful approaches piloted by the disaster risk management community but

30 Vulnerability and Small Island States, UNDP Journal

51

mainstreamed into national strategies and programmes. Addressing and managing climate risk as it is manifested in extreme events and impacts in the here and now, is the most appropriate way of strengthening capacities to deal with changing climate in the future. Achievement of the MDGS goals is difficult, if not impossible, if integral human security and sustainability are not enhanced and guaranteed. Disaster risk levels and losses in society have shown such progressive growth over the last forty years, that they now comprise a serious threat to sustainability and development. A very significant part of this loss is associated with hydro-meteorological events. 3.4 Terms of Reference: Outputs 3 & 4 Identify opportunities for strengthening of appropriate capacity building efforts focused on risk management associated with climate change and disasters risk management and response.

Identify opportunities for cooperation and collaboration within the region, in particular efforts that operationalise such opportunities (e.g., training, application of best practices, and the implementation of the regional Climate Change Centre). As noted above four primarily technical areas: public awareness and education; disaster mitigation; risk identification and forecasting; and disaster preparedness, have been identified by virtue of the country assessment exercise, and needing capacity strengthening initiatives across the region. Additionally, two major areas for capacity development have been identified: Capacity for Sustainable Development Planning and Integrated Policy Formulation; and Capacity for Integrated Climate Risk Management. The country assessment reports showed that at the national level, only Cuba and Grenada were presently undertaking any significant, organized programme of capacity development in the area of disaster management and there was no significant focus being given to inclusion of the likely impacts of climate change. The assessment also showed that at the regional level, the initiatives in disaster management being undertaken did not include climate change, and typical of the donor sponsored initiatives, had short- to medium-term time frames, and were of varying scales and targeted only a limited number of countries, as well as only incorporated minimal amounts of training. Like the majority of donor-assisted activities, there is no sustainability, both in terms of the continuity of the effort as well as the retention of the professionals who get trained. One possible opportunity to address a number of these limitations would be through effective involvement of the tertiary institutions across the region. Given the continual migration of skilled professionals out of the region, long-term capacity at the individual level must therefore be based on institutionalisation within the formal educational systems of the countries. While some of the initiatives like the Caribbean Disaster Management Project will involve the University of the West Indies (UWI), there will be

52

no significant capacity built within the institution to allow it to continue developing capacity after the project ends. With the establishment of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) and Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Agency (CDERA), new approachs to disaster management under which the institutions now approach disaster management in an integrated manner (education, prevention, preparedness, and mitigation) as opposed to post-disaster management, the region has in place the basic institutional infrastructure that in conjunction with the tertiary institutions could be effectively utilized to institutionalise the development of the capacity needs identified previously over the longer term. The UWI, despite being one of the three major regional institutions and the principal regional training institution, has been, at best, marginally involved in training and research in the areas of disaster risk management, or in helping to address the region’s vulnerability to climate change. For example, there is no energy management or renewable energy technological capacity being built within the institution. The proposed establishment by the UWI of the School for Environment and Development would be an ideal compliment to CDERA and CCCCC, with the UWI providing the institutional base to provide the fundamental academic training and undertake research in the areas of integrated disaster risk management including climate change, allowing CDERA and CCCCC to focus on the professional level training in disseminating best practices and providing technical support to complement national level capacity as, and where needed. Ongoing initiatives and planned initiatives would become part of the foundation on which regional capacity development is built. In this regard, the senior inter-governmental organization, the Caribbean Community Secretariat (CARICOM) through its regional implementation machinery, should ensure that the Caribbean Heads of State with responsibility for Human Resource Development address this as a matter of urgency with the new leadership of the UWI. There is an essential need for CDERA and the CCCCC to engage in cooperative efforts with the tertiary educational institutions across the region, in order to develop a new education curriculum that will ensure that all graduates from these institutions have the essential knowledge about the most serious threats to the region’s long-term viability. Similarly, teacher-training institutions need to reorganize their curriculum for primary and secondary education to make its graduates and the teachers of the future fully equipped to teach the basics of sustainable development, and integrated natural disaster management and their role in national survival. The major constraint to realising these opportunities, from expansion and in coverage and incorporation of climate change risk, is the availability of financial resources. The lack of capacity to manage and adapt to climate related risks is, and will be the major development issue for Caribbean SIDS. The weaknesses in capacity to respond to the risks associated with current climate variability and with already occurring extreme climate events can be expected to also restrict adaptive capacity to extreme events in the

53

future if no action is taken to address these core concerns. Strengthening regional, national and local capacities to manage climate related risks, as currently exists, is necessary in order to be able to manage the more intense climate risks in the future. Medium and long-term vulnerability-reduction/resilience-strengthening to climate change must, therefore, involve efforts to improve current risk management and adaptation initiatives and activities. This will need to be based on best practices arising from past experiences particularly extreme events, relating to vulnerability and adaptation/strengthening of resilience One of the unique characteristics of SIDS is the problem with economies of scale, and this will not go away. One of the most effective means of countering constraints resulting from economies of scale is through cooperation. It is therefore important that a collaborative approach between government, private sector, and NGOs underpin strategies to mobilize the resources necessary to develop individual and institutional capacities for the region. Regional and international cooperation in disaster response and management is an important element of the disaster management portfolio. Given the domestic financial constraints facing these countries, external assistance is critical to implementation for training, provision of equipment, and other support. CARICOM is well positioned to coordinate with the national governments and the regional organisations to mobilise additional resources to increase coverage as well as broadening the focus of ongoing and planned activities in disaster management, and begin the process of institutionalising capacity development to address risk of historical disasters as well as those anticipated from global climate change and sea level rise. Potential sources that could be explored for additional resources by CARICOM directly, or through the national governments are:

o UNDP’s Natural Disaster Type II Partnership o UNDP/GEF Capacity Development Initiative o UNDP Capacity 2015 Programme o Millennium Development Goals o National Government and Private Sector Partnerships (particularly those most

vulnerable like tourism, and insurance) o Civil society groups such as Churches, Trade Unions, Pension Funds. o Development Banks including the Inter-America and Caribbean Development

Banks. o Canadian Climate Change Fund. o Global Environmental Facility o European Union o Government of Japan.

Additionally, CARICOM needs to make the leadership of the region, at the highest level, aware of the increasing cost of disasters, and that those national actions while absolutely

54

necessary, given the nature of SIDS, will not be adequate. These leaders need to be made aware that, in constant monetary terms, the losses during disasters throughout the world during the 1990s were nine times those sustained during the 1960s and six times those during the 1970s. This can be explained in terms of the increased exposure of population, infrastructure and production, increases in the value of assets and increases in human vulnerability to hazard events. Although economic losses tend to be higher in absolute terms in the developed countries, the overall impact of disaster events is far higher in developing countries where over 90% of human losses occur in any one year, and that the Caribbean SIDS have been particularly hard hit due to the very small size of their economies and the highly vulnerable nature of their economic base, as shown by the country assessment reports. Ministries of Foreign Affairs in particular, need to be made aware of the situation so they can project what is going to be the likely consequence from climate change, a condition that is not of the region’s making, as the region is a net sink for greenhouse gases not a net emitter. Resources to help develop capacity to reduce vulnerability to climate change in the future by developing capacity in the present should become the major focus of the foreign policy of all Caribbean SIDS.

55

CHAPTER 4

CONCLUSION

4.0 INTRODUCTION Despite increasing concern about the more frequent devastation due to severe hydro-meteorological events and the resulting setback to national development, there is still, with the notable exception of Cuba, no meaningful capacity development programmes in place to develop the requisite individual or institutional capacity needed to provide the countries with the skilled professionals and institutions needed to reverse the ever increasing cost of disasters associated with severe hydro-meteorological events. The capacity development activities that are ongoing, and described earlier in the report, are predominately externally driven, again with Cuba being the exception, and therefore questions of sustainability and long-term impact arises. Additionally, implementations of these activities are highly dependent upon external professionals reflecting the limited capacity within the region. The major regional institution, the University of the West Indies, responsible for producing professionals with the requisite skill sets and tools based on its current offerings, is not performing anywhere near the level that is required in order to redress the capacity weakness that now exist. Initiatives have been taken, such as developing a graduate programme in climate change management, however, this is in its embryonic stage and sustainability is a major concern. Managing risk from natural disasters directly related to hydro-meteorological events (drought, floods, high winds, tidal surge) will inevitably become a major societal concern for Caribbean SIDS as a result of climate change. The level of concern will far exceed the present level of attention and priority given such events, based on the IPCC TAR. This will be the direct result of the intensification and frequency of these events as climate change impacts begin to be felt across the region. Six major areas of capacity development have been identified for Caribbean SIDS to develop effective capacity:

o Public Awareness and Education o Risk Identification and Forecasting o Disaster Preparedness o Disaster Mitigation o Capacity for Sustainable Development Planning and Integrated Policy

Formulation o Capacity Integrated Climate Risk Management Strategies

The longer the region takes to develop capacity in these areas the greater will be the damages that are experienced.

56

The region’s ongoing economic difficulties as discussed below, act as a major constraint to providing the necessary resource to begin the process of preparation. However, early investment would minimise the present cost of damages, as the assessment shows, that are now being experienced, providing a positive cost benefit over the very long-term. Despite the positive cost and benefits that would directly accrue to the national economy and other stakeholders from reduction in the loss of assets, and indirectly from the cost of mitigation, public sector decision makers, based on the country assessment reports, have not made the needed investment. As pointed out, fundamental investment in public awareness, early warning and communications systems are needed. Beyond these fundamental investment in comprehensive disaster management, as advocated by CDERA, there is need for investment in capacity development for planning and enforcement, which are not considered as priorities by national governments. A major challenge for the national disaster management and the climate change agencies as well as CDERA and the CCCCC in getting the concept of comprehensive disaster risk management mainstreamed in national development planning, and consequently the allocation of adequate financial resources, is hard evidence that there is positive cost benefits. National disaster management agencies, CDERA and the CCCCC, need to cooperate in developing the hard evidence, utilising the ongoing regional and national level projects in mainstreaming adaptation to climate change and disaster management. Significant base data, as reflected in the national assessment, exist for the economic costs of disasters during the decade of the 1990s for some countries. In the case of Grenada, where there is very limited recent data, the current project should provide a base for effective monitoring and data gathering over the next few years. These agencies will also need to evaluate innovative partnerships from institutional stakeholders who will be the principal beneficiaries from effective implementation of comprehensive disaster risk management, such as insurance and tourism companies. 4.1 Resource Limitations and Capacity Development The major contributing factor to the problems of capacity development, as reflected in the assessment reports, in both the national and regional institutions, is the limited financial resources available. Difficulties with management of the national economy arising from factors such as economic globalisation, coupled with international political development over the last decade, which has resulted in the region experiencing significant reduction in external support, have resulted in significant reduction in government revenue. Consequently, the senior decision makers in government continually face tough decisions almost daily, in this ever tightening financial resource environment, and accordingly, it is very difficult to get decision-makers to address new issues, or even more difficult, to focus on issues that are projected to manifest in the long-term such as climate change and the associated increases in disaster threats. In the absence of effective public awareness and education, it is likely that these decision makers will change their current perspective only in the face of major catastrophic events. Attitude of countries like the US, who at the

57

international level dispute the scientific evidence that there is indeed change in the climate resulting from the ongoing emission of greenhouse gases, does not help in getting senior decision makers to pay attention to the issues. Likewise, international development agencies like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), that continue to stress economic growth rather than sustainable development, further serve to make senior decision makers in the region even more reluctant to give any degree of priority to the issues of developing effective national capacity that would lead to climate change or comprehensive disaster management becoming focal issues. It should be pointed out that based on the approach used by the senior decision makers in government to establish priorities, that if the economic situation was much better there is no indication that the resources for capacity development in this area would be considered a priority. At present, most public expenditure is devoted to recurrent expenditure and repayment of loans. This severely constrains the extent of resources devoted to risk management and other medium to long-term development concerns. Implementation of sustainable financing mechanisms will be critical for development of capacity at all levels of the capacity development framework but will likely be dependent on socio-economic and international factors affecting national economic performance, especially the fiscal performance of government. Seen from this perspective, it is understandable why the vast majority of ongoing programmes/initiatives in capacity development are regional, and usually externally funded. However, as these activities are seldom implemented in all the countries across the region, as shown in the sub-set of countries selected for this review, the two countries where capacities are most limited - Dominica and Grenada - are not participating to any significant extent in the ongoing disaster management capacity building initiatives at the regional level. Additionally, the design of these regional projects, resulting from resource limitation, are such that frequently the entire set of activities covered by the project is not implemented in all the participating countries. It can be safely concluded that all Caribbean SIDS lack the financial resources to implement the capacity development actions that would significantly reduce their vulnerability to climate change in the future and reduce damages in the near-term from natural disasters. 4.2 Capacity Requirements at the National Level At the national and institutional levels, the cross-sectoral nature of climate change means that a number of agencies and organisations are likely to be directly involved in managing the impacts and adaptations associated with this phenomenon, as illustrated by the Grenada climate change committee. This will require that the mandates, functions, and structures of these agencies incorporate the ability to provide the information, scientific, and administrative roles that will need to be pursued for enabling the type of adaptive priorities identified for the various countries. Crucial to the efforts at the

58

institutional level to integrate concerns for climate change into the disaster risk reduction and management effort will be the establishment of a national authority for climate change. Among the responsibilities of this agency will be to liaise with disaster response agencies in providing technical support and coordination. Given the limited number of persons with expertise in climate change related issues in the region, significant capacity development at the individual level is required to expand the number of persons with technical and scientific understanding of climate change including the relationship with extreme weather events and the possibilities for disaster vulnerability and risk reduction. As seen, based on the listing of capacity development initiatives, there are only limited activities. Particular attention therefore needs to focus on developing individual capacities in the priority thematic areas discussed above. Efforts should include training and public awareness for fostering community and civil society participation. Ongoing and planned regional disaster management and climate change projects should be re-evaluated in order to ensure that they will provide important opportunities for enhancing capacity at the level of the individual. As in most small island communities, the issue of preventing the drain of technical capacity at the institutional level is a challenge. In response to the influence of macro-economic and institutional features that constrain adaptation to climate change, efforts need to be made to facilitate efficiency and professionalism at the institutional level if there is to be adequacy of technical resources in this regard. Existing and planned regional and international programmes for climate change and disaster response provide important opportunities for strengthening adaptive capacity in areas where national resources are limited. As identified above, concerns for some form of capacity building are an integral focus of most of the project activities for climate change and disaster management. The results of these external initiatives will, however, be dependent on the existence of a favourable enabling environment at the level of public policy. This will determine the extent to which other elements of the capacity development framework such as legislation, public awareness, and training will be successful. This should encompass adaptation measures for reducing present and projected vulnerability and risk to climate processes and events. A clearly articulated policy framework will also allow for the definition of mandates and strengthening of climate change related institutions. 4.3 The Imperative for Changing the Current Development Paradigm The major implication of the results for the national assessments is the need for national commitment to the sustainable development paradigm, and de-emphasis on the economic growth at any cost approach, as advanced by development banks. Sustainable development as elaborated in the BPOA, must become the focus of public policy, if these countries are to have any chance of withstanding the projected disastrous impacts of

59

climate change. Short of developing the kind of definitive evidence that investment in capacity for comprehensive disaster management is a positive cost benefit, in the sense that the monetary returns to government coffers exceeds that taken out, there is unlikely to be the sort of policy change at the national level that will provide the required level of resources. However, implementation of a sustainable development paradigm as pointed out earlier would make issues of climate change and disaster management mainstream and thereby subject to funding priority. 4.4 Increased Efficiency in the Use of Limited Financial Resources National development programmes and projects planned for the future will be affected by climate change. Additionally, activities now being undertaken will, themselves, affect the natural resource base, and therefore its potential for responding to any adverse impacts of climate change. It is therefore crucial that policy makers take early actions to begin to integrate climate change considerations into their development planning. 4.5 Convergence at the Institutional Level: Institutional Integration Despite this general context, reality shows that the risk and disaster management communities are not monolithic blocks. Efforts and movement that attempt to change the status quo, promoting more integral visions as regards risk management, and pushing practice more in favour of risk reduction and risk control areas (as opposed to traditional and dominant response concerns) have been prevalent over the last decade. Nowadays, risk management tends to be progressively seen as a cross cutting, integrative and cross sectorial practice covering concerns that go from disaster prevention and mitigation through response to reconstruction. Decentralization and community and local participation are seen as essential components of this practice. Moreover, the dominant tendency to see disaster prevention and mitigation as something that attempts to reduce existing risk levels in society and thus “prevent disasters” has been gradually eroded giving way to a vision that also incorporates prospective considerations. Corrective or compensatory risk reduction operating on existing levels of risk has been complimented with a move in favour of prospective risk management that attempts to foresee and control future risk. This can be seen with the insistence that risk management should be an integral component of development and project planning cycles. New developments must be analysed and considered in the light of potential new risk factors. For its part, the Adaptation to Climate Change community is also not a monolithic block as regards thought and practice, despite the relatively youthful nature of these concerns. This community may have commenced development of ideas, thinking in terms of adaptation under conditions of uncertainty and in long time periods using the complimentary notions of “spontaneous” and “planned,” or “independent” or “formally planned” adaptation to climate change. Further, this may have been done basically ignoring present hazard scenarios associated with normal climatic variability. However, today, this is not always the case, and some current thought favours more incremental approaches, building on current patterns of risk, introducing incentives to increased

60

resilience and adaptation under current conditions as a basis for longer term adaptation. The notions of “no regret” and “win-win” policies and practice reflect this current train of thought. That is to say, many adaptation strategies are consistent with sound environmental practice and wise resource use today, and are appropriate responses to natural hazards and climate variability and to the threat of creation of new socio-natural hazards. No regret adaptation strategies are seen to be beneficial and cost-effective even in the absence of climate change. Win-win strategies have their rationale in ecosystem maintenance, improved resilience and enhanced livelihoods. Finally, current thought also tends to support the idea that long-term planned adaptation will not really be feasible in many instances, although government incentives and support for adaptation must exist. Spontaneous or independent adaptation is already happening in many hundreds of diffuse, incremental actions by many stakeholders. In sum, it is clear that despite the still de-linked nature of the two scientific and practitioner communities the points of convergence between them far outweigh the differences in emphasis and approach. A common problem related to risk in society and uncertainty as to future impacts and the social and territorial distribution of these, is a concern for the relations between society and environment, and a flux between short and long term considerations typifies both. Moreover, it is also very clear that the basic point of departure for both communities is the notion of sustainable development and livelihoods. Despite the similarities in the climate risk management and adaptation problematic, the evidence shows that present national and international efforts to design strategies to adapt societies and their economies to the effects of climate change, and national and international efforts to manage the disaster risks associated with extreme climate events remain fundamentally divorced. In many, if not most developing countries, totally separate and parallel institutional systems and programming mechanisms exist for promoting adaptation to climate change on the one hand, and disaster risk management on the other hand. This divorce between the adaptation to global climate change and the disaster risk management communities is unproductive and even absurd if it is accepted that both are addressing the same issue of climate related risks, but from apparently different viewpoints. This includes supposed differences related to the time period under consideration. Risk managers are seen to deal with current and short-term risk and climate adaptation specialists with longer-term changes and risk. But this is essentially a false separation. Risk, by definition, refers to the probability of certain events occurring in the future. The uncertainty surrounding the specific impacts of future climate change in particular space-time coordinates, is therefore an intrinsic characteristic of existing risk and which has to be dealt with by risk management in the here and now.

61

4.6 The Need: Regional Foreign Policy to Address Climate Change While heroic measures must be made to ensure survival and promote development in the face of this unprecedented challenge to Caribbean SIDS, ultimately, efforts must also run in parallel to address the issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions if the objectives of the UNFCCC are to be realized. The lack of capacity to manage and adapt to climate related risks is already a central development issue in many developing countries, particularly in SIDS. From this perspective, the lack of capacity to manage the risks associated with current climate variability and with already occurring extreme climate events is the same lack of capacity that will inhibit countries from addressing the future increases in the complexity and uncertainty of risk due to global climate change. Strengthening national and local capacities to manage climate related risks, as they can currently be assessed, is the best strategy to manage more complex climate risk in the future. At the same time, it is more feasible to mobilise national and international political and financial resources to manage an existing risk scenario than to address a hypothetical future scenario. Medium and long-term adaptation must begin today with efforts to improve current risk management and adaptation initiatives and contexts. Further, lessons from current practices along with the notion that learning comes from doing are of critical importance. Current trends and forecasts would suggest that the social distribution of risk and loss could become one of the dominating concerns of the Caribbean SIDS, as the impacts of climate change begin to be physically manifested. The sooner these countries begin to redress the current situation in which insufficient resources and priority is paid to sustainable development, including integrated risk management, the more resilient they will be to the threat of climate change and its impact on the frequency and intensity of natural hydro-meteorological hazards. Short-term attention to existing and recurrent problems must be complimented with, and seen in the light of medium and long-term changes and impacts. This is a major challenge for the leadership of the Caribbean SIDS. Also relevant in this regard will be the development of an economic framework that facilitates risk reduction and advances adaptive measures. This would include the private sector (e.g., insurance) and public sector resources. Again international cooperation is likely to play an important role in providing technical support, networking and equipment that can assist in overcoming some of the constraints at the institutional level, including confronting the development of the necessary adaptive capacity for extreme weather events.

62

APPENDIX A

COUNTRY REPORT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

A. OVERVIEW Antigua and Barbuda is located in the North Eastern Caribbean at 17° N and 43° W. The islands comprise 440 km2 of land space. The 2001 population estimate for Antigua and Barbuda31 is 75,74132 people, with 59 per cent of the population residing in the parish of St. John’s. The population is estimated to have grown by 16 per cent since the last census in 1991. The combination of small population and small land area makes Antigua and Barbuda the second smallest country in the western hemisphere33 and one of the smallest countries in the world. Topographically, the islands of Antigua and Barbuda consist primarily of low-lying coral and limestone landscapes. The country’s flat topography enables road access to virtually all areas, facilitating the fairly even distribution of settlements and industry. A major exception to this is Barbuda, where, for historical and cultural reasons, most human settlement is confined to one area. Despite their small size, the islands contain extensive biodiversity resources including a number of endemic and threatened species. Most of Antigua’s land cover consists of secondary growth with a few areas of original vegetative cover. Barbuda on the other hand retains much of its original forest and is primarily covered by evergreen bush. Soils are generally quite fertile. The country’s indented bays, sandy beaches and other coastal attractions form the basis for much of the important tourism industry. Among the features of the coastal environment are sandy beaches, mangroves, coral reefs, and rocky shorelines. Running along the western side of Barbuda, is the largest lagoon in the eastern Caribbean, separated from the sea by a narrow spit of land and which is a significant ecological resource for the island and the region. In terms of climate, Antigua and Barbuda can be characterized as tropical maritime, reflecting the major meteorological and climatic influences of the ocean. Temperatures remain fairly consistent throughout the year ranging from around 29 degrees C during the summer and 24 degrees C during the winter months. In contrast, precipitation amounts may vary considerably on an annual and seasonal basis. Average annual rainfall for Antigua is 1,041.3 mm (40.98 inches). The average annual rainfall for Barbuda is between 1,965 and 2,000 (34.74 inches). Historically, precipitation is highest during the months of August to December (wet season) and lowest between January and April (dry

31 Antigua and Barbuda Preliminary Census Report 2001, Department of Statistics, Ministry of Planning and Implementation. Antigua 32 This figure is based on estimated resident population, as determined by the results of the 2001 census. 33 The neighbouring State of St Kitts and Nevis is the smallest nation in the western hemisphere.

63

season). Low precipitation however constitutes an integral characteristic of both islands. Data on rainfall totals for the principal station in Antigua is provided at Figure A.1 and highlights the variability that exists in terms of annual and monthly rainfall totals, ranging from a low of 637mm (25 inches) in 1968, to 1,709mm (65 inches) in 1979. The country’s economy is based primarily on tourism and other services. Table A.1 provides an indication of sectoral composition of gross domestic product (GDP) for 1985 and 2000. Since the 1960s, agriculture has made a relatively minor contribution to the national economy with half of the output of the agricultural sector now emanating from fisheries. Development of the manufacturing sector continues to be constrained by high production costs and the easy availability of low cost imports. One interesting feature is the growth and importance of the construction sector.

Antigua and Barbuda Percentage Contribution of Gross Domestic

Product by Economic Activity at Factor Cost in Constant Prices Sector 1985 2000 2003 Agriculture 3.98 3.47 3.28 Mining and Quarrying

0.81 1.89 1.89

Manufacturing 3.95 2.48 2.52 Electricity and Water 3.32 3.86 3.63 Construction 7.28 13.40 14.06 Wholesale and Retail 10.09 9.60 8.56 Hotels and Restaurants

18.83 12.74 12.09

Transport 11.13 11.47 10.77 Communications 4.71 10.78 10.67 Banks and Insurance 5.28 10.73 10.56 Real Estate and Housing

8.75 7.22 7.24

Government Services

19.25 16.09 17.44

Other Services 7.78 6.53 6.34 Less Imputed Service Charges

5.14 10.24 9.05

TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank The 2003 UN Human Development Report places Antigua and Barbuda at the top of the Medium Human Development category,34 and despite the difficulties arising from small

34 UNDP 2003. Antigua and Barbuda is ranked at number 56.

64

size, there have been notable socio-economic achievements in health care delivery, access to public utilities and nutrition. Tables A.2 and A.3 provide some social and other statistical indicators. Table A.2 Select Socio-Economic Indicators Life Expectancy at Birth

Infant mortality rate 2001 (per 1000 live births)

Population with access to improved sanitation (2000)

Population with access to improved water

73.9 years 12 95% 91% Source: OECS Human Development Report 2002. OECS Secretariat, St. Lucia 2002.

Table A.3: Select Socio-Economic Indicators GDP per capita (US$) 2001

Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 2001

Public expenditure on Health (% of GDP)

Public expenditure on Education (% of GDP)

Telephone mainlines (per 1000 people) 2001

Cellular subscribers (per 1000 persons) 2001

Internet access (per 1000 persons)

$9,961 79 3.3 3.2 491 323 90.4 Source: OECS Human Development Report 2002. OECS Secretariat, St. Lucia 2002.

Despite progress in many areas of socio-economic development, as reflected in the indicators above, as small islands, Antigua and Barbuda remains vulnerable to a variety of climate related hazards. These arise from, among other circumstances: (a) their small size which means that natural disasters tend to affect the entire national territory; (b) the high per capita costs associated with re-establishment of essential public services following disruptions by natural disasters; and (c) dependence on a single natural resource based economic sector (tourism) that is itself highly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather events. . With respect to capacity development for adapting to extreme weather events associated with global climate change, Antigua and Barbuda’s national circumstances, especially it’s small population, pattern of economic development, its political evolution, and its limited financial resources have resulted in little attention being placed on many of the systemic, institutional, and human development concerns that are likely to figure highly in efforts to meaningfully respond to the type of long-term development issues associated with adaptation to climate change. The next section provides an overview of existing disaster risks in Antigua and Barbuda, with particular emphasis on recent experiences with weather extremes; and as a guide to understanding the context for capacity development needs.

65

A.1 Types and Historical Impacts of Hazards/Disasters Disasters can be seen as events involving accidents or injuries to persons, damage or destruction to property, economic losses to affected persons, and/or involving disruptions to the natural environment that adversely affect natural biological and physical processes. In Antigua and Barbuda, such incidents in many instances originate from extreme events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, droughts, and volcanic activity. During the period 1983-2003 Antigua and Barbuda experienced a number of weather related disasters. The principal natural disaster affecting Antigua and Barbuda in terms of physical and socio-economic impacts are hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June to November of each year, and during that period, some of the tropical waves originating on the west coast of Africa, and in the Caribbean Sea, have developed into tropical storms and hurricanes. These storms have the potential for significant loss of life, damage to property, and disruptions to the natural environment. Hazards associated with hurricanes are generally flooding and other water damage, and damage caused from strong winds. Following a period of 39 years, during which the islands did not experience any direct hit from hurricanes, the period between 1989 and 1999 was characterized by an increase in storm and hurricane activity. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 resulted in deaths and injuries to persons as well as damage to public and private buildings; hurricane Luis in 1995 caused widespread damage to property as well as some deaths; and hurricane Lenny in 1999 saw flooding and associated damage. Tables A.4, A.5 and A.6 provide an overview of some of the impacts of storms and hurricanes on Antigua and Barbuda during the period 1989 - 1999. Table A.4: Impact of Major Hurricanes on Antigua and Barbuda 1989-99 Hurricane(s) Date Category35 Deaths Injuries Economic

costs (EC$)36 Shelters

Hugo 29/9/89 3 2 400 180,000,000.00 2,000 Luis37 4-5/9/95 4 400 461,484,105.00 11,272 Georges 29/10/98 2 2 34 200,000,000.00 3,489 Jose and Lenny38

19/10/99 20/12/99

2 1

1 13 147,429,000.00 4,217

Source: National Office of Disaster Services, Antigua and Barbuda The figures above demonstrate the impact that a single extreme weather event has had on small islands. For example, while the number of fatalities is low, the number of persons in shelters during the 1995 hurricane season is over ten percent of the population of the 35 This relates to the strength of the hurricane at the time that it affected Antigua and Barbuda as defined in the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane Lenny for example was a category 5 Hurricane. 36 US$1.00 = EC$2.70. Figure does not include environmental costs. 37 In I995 two tropical storms (Iris and Sebastian) and two hurricanes (Luis and Marilyn) affected Antigua and Barbuda between 27th August and 23rd October 1995. 38 Information on these hurricanes is not reported separately

66

country: a tremendous burden for any economy but particularly so for an economy of such limited financial and natural resources. Similarly, the economic costs associated with the 1995 season resulted in a decline in economic activity as large numbers of persons were displaced from the hard hit tourism and other jobs. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) estimates job losses during the last quarter of 1995 at between 4,000 and 7,000 or approximately 15% - 25% of the workforce39. Tables A.5 and A.6, however, point towards even more long-term impacts associated with the passage of the hurricanes. The tourism industry, especially non-cruise sectors, has been affected as reflected in declines in stay-over visitors compared to the years prior to the hurricanes, and in terms of the overall percentage contribution of the hotel and restaurant sub-sectors to the economy. As the ECCB has pointed out, central government expenditure also increased substantially as a result of hurricane related reconstruction and the granting of relief to disadvantaged groups. While the costs arising from the hurricanes have certainly not been the principal cause of the climbing national external debt, these events have certainly contributed to the growth of the debt as government has borrowed for reconstruction and to compensate for reductions in expected revenues from the tourism sector. Table A.5: Percentage Contribution of Gross Value Added by Economic Activity

in Constant Prices (hotel and restaurant, and air transport sectors) Economic Activity

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Hotels and restaurants

16.42 17.60 14.61 14.54 14.57 13.57 13.28 12.84 11.76

Air transport

5.10 5.10 4.73 4.71 4.69 4.30 4.15 4.02 3.76

Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank 2002

Table A.6: Select Economic Indicators 1994-2001 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Government recurrent expenditure EC$m

275.42

290.62

314.58

324.06

357.58

375.08

383.32

410.31

Stay-over Visitors (‘000)

254.71

211.66

220.48

270.48

232.14

231.71

230.01

214.79

39 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. 2002.

67

Cruise passenger arrivals (‘000)

246.27

238.63

280.01

290.07

347.10

339.79

429.41

408.81

Electricity consumption (000 kwh)

105,693

97,271

108,451

115,261

118,075

136,780

152,231

160,169

Total External Debt (EC$m)

749.60

774.28

745.27

939.01

1,073.60

1,134.49

1,153.79

1,097.81

Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank 2002

The country’s small and primarily artisanal agricultural sector is also vulnerable to the impacts of hurricanes. Figures from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate, for example, that the damage to crops from Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn, in September 1995, was approximately EC$2,288,699 and EC$464,215 in damage to livestock, particularly poultry which saw losses of 12,175 birds. These figures are significant given the small scale of agricultural production in Antigua and Barbuda, the generally undercapitalised nature of the sector, and the consequent difficulties in restarting production and returning to previous levels of productivity. Such weaknesses in the agricultural sector have forced Government to provide limited emergency relief to farmers after major hurricanes. Table A.7 below indicates the impact of hurricanes George, Jose, and Lenny, on the also largely artisanal fisheries sub-sector. Apart from these direct costs, Joseph et al40 note that a substantial impact of hurricanes on the fisheries sector is that stormy seas both prior to and after hurricanes greatly reduce the amount of time that fishermen are able to spend at sea and therefore their ability to harvest. TableA.7 Hurricane Impacts on Fisheries (1998-1999) Hurricane Vessel Gear Infrastructure Processing

plants Total

George (1998)

$1,500,000.00 $1,773,930.00

$40,000.00 $3,313,930.00

Jose (1999)

$58,000.00 $998,571 $50,000.00 $20,000.00 $1,126,571.00

Lenny (1999)

$34,000.00 92,390.00 $126,390.00

Source: Fisheries Department, Ministry of Agriculture Another indicator of the impact of hurricanes relates to the insurance industry. In 1989, the average cost of homeowner insurance premiums in Antigua and Barbuda and other North Eastern Caribbean islands was EC$4.50 per foot2. By 2003, the rate had increased to EC$20.50 per foot2, driven primarily by the costs and perceptions of risk associated

40 D. Joseph, E Royer, R Mahon. “ Effects of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations in the Fisheries Sector in Antigua and Barbuda”. Ministry of Planning/UNEP. 1996.

68

with hurricane activity in the North-eastern Caribbean41. Similar increases have also been passed on to commercial properties including hotels, further increasing costs in an already price-sensitive tourism based economy. Notwithstanding these increases in premiums, there has been only marginal movement away from insurance due to the conditions imposed by commercial lending institutions as well as by perceptions of the need for coverage against weather related risks. In addition to increased costs of coverage, some coastal properties have been forced to adopt modified building practices in order to qualify for insurance coverage. In a few instances, coastal properties viewed as being at high risk to storm surge and coastal erosion, particularly in the Runaway Bay area, have been unable to acquire insurance coverage. Table A.8 below presents estimates from 1992 for costs of protection of coastal areas in Antigua from sea-level rise associated with climate change, with figures ranging from EC$13.75 million for an increase in sea-level of 0.3 metre to EC$131.18 million for beach nourishment required for a 1.0 metre increase in sea-level. These costs would have since increased dramatically driven by additional development in coastal areas and by inflationary pressures. Table A.8 (EC $ millions) Protection Strategy Base 0.3m sea-level rise 1.0 m sea-level rise Sea wall/revetments

• Length (km) • Cost

2.5 5.25

5.5 13.75

7.5 30.00

Breakwaters • Length • Cost

3.0 27.00

4.5 40.50

Beach nourishment • Length of

beach (km) • Cost

2.25 11.9

8.25 87.45

8.25 131.18

Source: G. Cambers. Assessment of the Vulnerability of Coastal Areas of Antigua and Nevis to Sea Level Rise. 1992. While hurricanes clearly represent dramatic and possibly catastrophic impacts, the type of weather extreme that Antigua and Barbuda has had most often to deal with is drought. Jackson notes that based on various classifications of drought as used by the national meteorological service, Antigua and Barbuda can be regarded as having experienced some form of drought for half of the years between 1960 and 200042. These include the drought of 1983 - 85, which seriously affected both tourism and agriculture, caused the need to import water from Dominica and Guadeloupe, and led to the adoption of desalinisation technology for the supply of water.

41 These are said to compare with rates of EC$8.50 per sq. ft. in St Lucia, Grenada etc and Bds $5.50 per sq. ft. in Barbados. 42 Ivor Jackson, “Drought Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Antigua and Barbuda”. Ivor Jackson and Associates. OAS/USAID. April 2001.

69

Although statistical information on the impacts of the 1984 drought is limited, Jackson indicates significant declines in production after 1984 for some crops, such as bananas (685,000 lbs in 1984 and 185,000 lbs in 1988), pineapples (448,000 lbs in 1984, and 278,000 lbs in 1988), and sweet potatoes (1,076,000 lbs in 1984; 482,000 lbs in 1988), notwithstanding fairly good rainfall in subsequent years. This suggests that in addition to the direct effects of the drought on production, one more long-term effect may have been to reduce the amount of investment and effort in the sector as farmers sought more secure livelihoods in other sectors. Table A.9 below provides water production figures for Antigua from 1996 to July 2003. The data indicates the dominant role of desalinisation in the water supply. Table A.10, on monthly water production for Antigua, demonstrates the critical nature of surface production during the first seven months of 2003, the almost total dependence on desalinisation during the period, points to the consequent decision to move towards desalinisation to supply 100% of demand. Table A.9: Antigua Water Production 1996-2003 (millions of gallons) Surface

water Groundwater Desalinisation Total

Production1996 305.069 118.792 927.529 1,351.390 1997 313.971 237.108 740.078 1,291.157 1998 332.5 211.831 801.736 1,346.067 1999 246.472 219.724 951.047 1,417.666 2000 316.585 191.722 990.189 1,498.496 2001 307.072 250.123 962.604 1,520.447 2002 149.145 255.534 1056.132 1,460.811 200343 7.514 133.923 609.435 780.872 Source: Antigua Public Utilities Authority

Table A.10: Antigua Water Production January – July 2003 (millions of gallons) Jan 5.119 19.394 92.035 116.548 Feb 2.395 18.459 76.371 97.225 March 0 17.237 89.65 106.887 April 0 21.644 88.164 109.808 May 0 22.96 89.04 112.000 June 0 18.104 86.72 104.824 July 0 16.125 87.455 103.580 Total 7.514 133.923 609.435 750.872 Source: Antigua Public Utilities Authority

Extreme water shortages, such as those that occurred in periods of the 1983-84 drought, impact hygiene and sanitation which in turn affect health. This is particularly pertinent to

43 January to July 2003.

70

Barbuda where inadequate treatment of pipe-borne water has meant recurrent outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease. The adoption of desalinisation as the primary source of water has in many ways reduced the level of vulnerability to drought. However, prolonged dry conditions such as prevailed in 2002-2003 has led to water rationing for virtually all communities, impacted heavily on agricultural production, increased tourism operating costs, and in some instances led to forced closure of schools and offices. • Following a period of prolonged drought, it was announced in October 2003 that

Antigua and Barbuda would move to secure 100 per cent of its water demand from desalinisation so as to overcome the uncertainties associated with dependence on rain-fed water supply44. This measure will go a long way to reduce the health risks and other adverse effects associated with lack of adequate supplies of water. However, given the costs of desalinisation, the agriculture sector will continue to need access to lower cost alternatives if the sector is to be economically viable. Additionally, the cost of desalination water remains a concern for the tourism sector where per capita usage tends to be high. According to Jackson (2001) the estimated costs for production of water in Antigua and Barbuda from various sources is as follows: Ground water: US$2.50 per cu. meter Surface water: US$3.00 per cu. Meter Desalinated water: US$4.70 per cu. Meter

In addition to weather related vulnerabilities, the country is also at risk from seismic activity. The most significant of these are earthquakes and tremors that are a result of Antigua and Barbuda’s presence along the geologically and seismically active Caribbean archipelago. In 1974, an earthquake of 6.4 magnitude on the Richter scale caused extensive damage to property and infrastructure. While earthquakes continue to occur, 1974 represented the last event causing major economic loss. The historical record does, however, indicate that these events have resulted in significant loss of life and damage to property. Since 1995, an active volcano on the neighbouring island of Montserrat has resulted in periodic ash falls on Antigua and Barbuda, as well as the temporary and permanent displacement of large segments of the Montserrat population to Antigua as a result of the physical and economic devastation caused by the volcano. Along with the hazards associated with natural phenomenon such as hurricanes, floods, drought and earthquakes, there is increasing recognition that a number of anthropogenic activities are adversely impacting on disaster risk and vulnerability in Antigua and Barbuda. For example, removal of coastal vegetation along with the draining and destruction of wetlands is reducing the natural ability of coastal areas to adapt to the effects of high tides, storm surge and rising sea levels. In inland areas the impact of over-grazing by animals, particularly goats, is having an increasingly devastating effect on soil

44 Antigua Public Utility Authority Plan to improve St. Johns water supply. Antigua Sun Thursday 9 October 2003

71

stability. Indeed, overgrazing may have been a main contributing factor in many of the landslides and land slippage experienced during the torrential rains associated with Hurricane Lenny in 1999. Residential development in flood prone areas and disruption of watercourses for development purposes has also increased vulnerability to hazards associated with present day extreme weather events. Expansion of invasive lemon-grass/citronella grasses into watershed areas also poses hazards in terms of biodiversity loss, productivity of agricultural lands, watershed management, and bush fires. Many of these activities also serve to heighten vulnerability to adverse effects of climate change. A.2 Current Capacity - Institutional Structure Institutional responsibilities for the management of disaster situations such as those noted previously rest with a number of agencies. At the centre of civil emergency and disaster response is the National Office of Disaster Services (NODS). This agency has overall responsibility for coordination of various aspects of disaster response and management. NODS is also responsible for provision of support and logistical services during disasters, working in collaboration with various line agencies and organizations such as the Police, Ministry of Health, Met Office, Public Works, Defence Force, and non-governmental organizations such as the Red Cross and churches. NODS also works through a system of community-based committees with responsibility for facilitating relief and information dissemination at the community level. NODS serves as the secretariat and executive arm of the national Emergency Operations Committee (EOC) which is commissioned at the time of a national disaster and which comprises inter-ministerial and inter-agency representation headed by the Prime Minister. Information available includes mapping of flood prone areas, as well as mapping of possible storm surge scenarios. Regional and international cooperation in disaster response and management is an important element of the disaster management portfolio and NODS has participated in various cooperation programmes and activities. Given the domestic financial constraints facing NODS, external assistance is critical to implementation for training, provision of equipment, and other support. Ongoing activities include construction of a regional emergency stores warehouse being financed by US SOUTHCOM. Other cooperation partners include OAS, GTZ, PAHO and the EU. The principal regional centre for cooperation in disaster management is the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Relief Agency (CDERA) that provides coordinating, technical support, and advocacy roles for English speaking Caribbean countries and territories. In relation to issues pertaining to climate change, NODS personnel have participated in various internationally supported regional workshops aimed at increasing understanding

72

within the disaster community as to the likely effects of global climate change on disaster risk. The NODS nevertheless faces considerable challenges in promoting mitigation activities for natural disasters in Antigua and Barbuda. Institutionally, while possessing a cadre of skilled disaster managers, limited numbers of technical personnel necessarily restricts NODS ability to respond to the multiplicity of tasks associated with disaster management. In 2003 NODS had a full time staff of thirteen employees and an annual expenditure of approximately EC$ 400,000 most of which was for personnel and administrative costs45. At the macro level, policy directives for disaster risk tend to be articulated only during or after disaster events, and relate primarily to crisis management measures. In fact, development policy in Antigua and Barbuda has in some instances enhanced vulnerability to disaster risk by the failure to adopt hazard or environmental evaluation tools or approaches. This is seen for example in the generally unplanned and arbitrary allocation of land for residential and commercial development with only limited attention placed on land capability and level of exposure to disaster risks and hazards. While legislation has been introduced to provide for the coordination and management role of NODS, regulations now need to be developed for further implementation of activities. There is also the need to ensure that technical resources at NODS including risk assessment data and other information relevant to mitigation against disasters are utilized in relation to decision-making on developments in disaster prone areas. At present, technical capabilities of NODS are primarily directed towards the management and coordination of disaster events with only limited resources for addressing longer-term disaster mitigation efforts. In terms of weather/climate related disasters and hazards, another key agency is the national meteorological service or Met Office. The Met Office is responsible for the collection, analysis, communication, and storage of data relating to meteorological and climatic information for Antigua and Barbuda. The department is located at the V.C. Bird International Airport and also has responsibility under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for providing meteorological information to a number of other eastern Caribbean countries. Technical expertise at the Met Office includes meteorology, climatology, and engineering. Representatives from the Met Office are actively involved in various aspects of work pertaining to climate change including participation in the work of the IPCC. The Meteorological Office is the principal source of early warning information in relation to precipitation, wind, oceanic, cyclonic and all other atmospheric conditions and activity. Well-developed and tested protocols exist for communication of meteorological information to the public and with agencies such as NODS. Data gaps still exist as a

45 This represents a reduction from actual expenditures of over EC$500,000 in 2002 reflecting greater fiscal austerity facing the NODS and other government agencies during 2003.

73

result of equipment and other constraints and this restricts the availability of information for more precise analysis of local conditions. In particular, information from Barbuda continues to be provided on a voluntary basis and with limited coverage. However, even on Antigua, there is the need for additional measurements of temperature, precipitation, oceanic conditions and other parameters so as to provide a more comprehensive understanding of present conditions and changes in climate. Cooperation with the US National Hurricane Centre, meteorological authorities in Guadeloupe, and other sources, provide real time data and information on storms and other weather. Regional cooperation also forms an important responsibility of the meteorological service including through the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, and the regional meetings of the World Meteorological Organization. As noted above, other key agencies involved in weather related civil disaster response include the Police, the military, health sector, and community and NGO organizations and agencies. These activities can be seen as operating at two levels. Firstly, there is the disaster response phase, largely coordinated through the NODS, and directed by the EOC, and aimed at providing relief and emergency response during and immediately after a hurricane, flood or other weather related disaster. Actions at this level are expected to be based on the national disaster plan comprising sectoral and organizational roles and responsibilities. The second, and perhaps more complex level involves more long-term disaster mitigation activities such as public awareness, enforcement of building construction standards, public health, and improved coordination between agencies. The experiences associated with Hurricane Luis are instructive from a number of perspectives relevant to discussion of the capacity building needs required for adapting to extreme weather events related to global climate change. Firstly, the physical impacts of the storm in terms of the strength and duration of the event are perhaps indicative of the type of storm activity that can be expected as a consequence of climate change. Secondly, the hurricane’s impact has highlighted awareness at all levels, of the need to address certain types of problems associated with extreme weather events – such as building standards and design, and strengthening of meteorological and disaster response agencies. These experiences have been useful to subsequent hurricanes and have likely reduced the extent of damage and other losses. The experiences of the latter half of the 1990s have therefore resulted in certain advances in capacity for managing existing extreme weather events at the systemic, institutional, and individual levels. These are reflected in such aspects as a more favourable policy environment in relation to ensuring compliance with relevant building codes, strengthening and updating of the legal authority and role of NODS, and more clearly defined functional responsibilities among the various actors involved in response and management of the impact of extreme weather events. At the individual level, training continues to be a priority for agencies involved in disaster response. There has also been strengthening of management at critical agencies, and some improvements in equipment

74

and technical resources. Nevertheless, major deficiencies in capacity development remain at all levels. To some extent, this reflects the critical nature of government financing but it is also reflective of the need for advancing the integration of concerns for disaster reduction and climate change into the mainstream of development planning. Antigua and Barbuda, however, faces certain inherent difficulties in developing the systemic capacity required for dealing with complex issues like adaptation to extreme weather events. These include those difficulties arising from the structure of the economy as reflected in the economic vulnerabilities noted above. Difficulties also reflect the cultural norms and administrative systems that exist. In many instances, official/legal bureaucratic stipulations are replaced by systems of informal communication, while rigidities in bureaucratic procedure frustrate efforts for information exchange and coordination of action that are required for strengthening of disaster response. Political influence on administrative and technical level decision making also impacts on enforcement at administrative levels, while inadequate understanding at the political level of the significance of the tasks involved has resulted in inadequate attention to equipment and other requirements related to strengthening of the institutional and individual level resource capabilities for disaster management. Perhaps the most serious constraint, however, has been the steady deterioration in government’s ability to provide the level of financial resources needed for implementing and maintaining administrative and operational capabilities in relation to various services. Financial constraints imperil capacity for disaster response in many ways including in terms of the quality of personnel, logistical, and communications resources. Such difficulties and constraints are even more important in the context of projected intensification in extreme weather events resulting from climate change. A.3 Climate Change Capacity Attempting successful adaptation in Antigua and Barbuda, to the increased risks of weather disasters as a result of global climate change, will require strengthening and development at various levels of the capacity development framework. Given the uncertainties surrounding the pace and nature of climate change, adaptation measures should be based on best available scientific knowledge and be directed towards measures that also address existing non climatic development concerns. In order to do this, it is necessary to integrate existing knowledge of climate change into ongoing development.

75

Generally, the challenge is to establish an enabling environment supportive of the types of initiatives that will allow institutions and individuals to adapt to the heightened disaster risks resulting from climate change by developing the necessary skills and taking the necessary actions for reducing vulnerability and enhancing sustainability. Table A.11 below provides an indication of impacts of climate change on extreme events likely to be of relevance to Antigua and Barbuda. The projections for climate change for the Caribbean for the next 50 to 100 years, as identified by the IPCC, point to increasingly warmer temperatures including less variation between day-time and night-time temperatures, greater variability in rainfall but with an overall trend towards drier conditions, continuing sea-level rise some of which (based on historical experience) is likely to be above the global average, and the likelihood of stronger, and possibly more frequent, hurricane/tropical storm activity. If no adaptive measures are adopted the hazards associated with these conditions can be expected to undermine progress in achieving sustainable development.

Table A.11: Likely Impacts of Projected Changes in Extreme Climate Events of Relevance to Antigua and Barbuda

Projected Changes during 21st Century in extreme climate phenomena and their likelihood

Representative examples of projected impacts

Simple Extremes Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days (very likely)

• Increased incidence of death and illness in high risk groups (cardiovascular patients, elderly, infants)

• Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife

Increasing minimum temperatures • Extended range and improved habitats for some pests and disease vectors

More intense precipitation events • Increased flood, landslide, and mudslide damage

• Increased soil erosion, • Increased pressure on government

and private flood insurance systems and disaster relief

76

Complex Extremes Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, mean and peak precipitation intensities

• Increased risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics, and many other risks

• Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure

• Increased damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves

Intensified droughts and floods associated with El Niňo events

• Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought and flood prone areas

• Health impacts associated with droughts and flood events

• Decreased crop yields • Decreased water resource quality

and quantity • Increased risk of forest and bush

fires Adapted from IPCC, 2001

More frequent drought conditions will, for example, exacerbate processes of land degradation already underway in Antigua and Barbuda. Increased incidents of heavy precipitation (particularly in conjunction with more prevalent drought conditions) will increase flooding, landslides and damage to sensitive coastal habitats such as coral reefs. Advances achieved in Antigua and Barbuda in health and human settlements could be reversed by the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change particularly from the impacts of extreme weather events. The difficulties surrounding attempting to achieve that stage of capacity development for climate change adaptation in Antigua and Barbuda, include the lack of an overall public policy approach to sustainable development issues and arising from this, the existing weakness of economic and development planning and control mechanisms, in addition to financial and institutional constraints. At the same time, the experiences of the 1990s have facilitated awareness of the importance of certain types of disaster vulnerability and risk reduction measures. Present arrangements for coordination of climate change are managed through the Office of the Prime Minister and activities centre around implementation of reporting requirements under the UNFCCC, with one professional involved on a full-time basis with implementation of this aspect of the climate change portfolio. A critical need for

77

advancing integration of climate change adaptation into disaster management and other activities is the further institutionalisation of climate change portfolios within various key agencies particularly the Meteorological Department and the Environment Division of the Ministry of Tourism and the Environment. Staff members within both agencies have already participated in a number of climate change programmes and activities. Continued strengthening of the legal and coordinating capacity of existing technical committees relating to climate change and environmental management will also be an important step in achieving the integration of climate change adaptation concerns into wider development activities. Table A.12: Adaptation Goals for Antigua and Barbuda Overall goal Specific objective Evaluation criteria

• Sustainable development

• Economic growth and development

• Environmental

protection

• Equity

• National income • Employment • Government finance

• Environmental

health • Coastal zone

management • Watershed

protection

• Social mobility • Access to social

services • Quality of life

indicators • Reduced

vulnerability • Minimized risks

• Minimize economic losses

• Increase institutional capability

• Population at risk • Response capability

• Personal losses • Insured losses • Public losses

• Planning and

implementation • Legal authorization

Adapted from IPCC 1994 At the implementation level, adaptation to climate change is likely to be based on past experiences, especially the most recent experiences and on efforts to reduce existing

78

vulnerabilities and risks, while incorporating understanding of future climate scenarios and associated vulnerabilities and risks. Critical areas in Antigua and Barbuda for the development of capacity in relation to adaptation to disaster events associated with climate change are:

Enhanced awareness. Risk identification and forecasting to understand and identify vulnerability and

disaster risk. Disaster preparedness to enhance readiness to cope promptly and effectively with

a disaster emergency. Disaster mitigation to address structural sources of disaster risk and vulnerability

including insurance. In particular, it becomes necessary to establish an enabling environment that will allow the concerns above to be addressed. The extent to which capacities exist for enabling the realization of these goals will be critical to determining the level of success of adaptation to many of the weather related hazards that will be enhanced by global climate change. The following sections will evaluate the extent to which capabilities already exist in these fields and attempt to indicate areas in which capacities in these fields can be enhanced. The overall objective of these efforts should be to strengthen capacity for the prevention and mitigation of disasters to the greatest extent possible within the context of ongoing and projected changes in the global climate. A.4 Public Awareness The first essential component of efforts to address climate change is increasing awareness of the phenomenon at the required levels. The importance of awareness stems from climate change being a process that will affect virtually every aspect of life. It is therefore necessary for the population to understand actions that may assist them in adaptation either through mitigating the adverse impacts or by enhancing any positive effects that might emerge. Given the complex nature of climate change, what is required at this stage is that key personnel are aware of relevant information and can transmit this to the public in an appropriate manner. In the context of efforts to reduce the expected adverse effects of climate change on disaster risk in Antigua and Barbuda it becomes necessary to ensure that persons involved in disaster response, meteorology, public health and other agencies on the front-line of disaster response have an understanding of the main features of climate change. Activities such as those by the CPACC/MACC project to increase collaboration with the disaster response community are therefore vital. In view of the significance of climate change to increasing the risk of disasters, this type of sensitisation will be essential to encouraging professionals in disaster management to incorporate climate change related concerns into disaster mitigation programmes and plans.

79

The ultimate aim here is to ensure that personnel involved in measures for managing risk are aware of the likely effects of climate change on hazards associated with disaster response and are in a position to incorporate these concerns into their work and planning. Initial efforts should include participation in regional climate change seminars and workshops. At the national level efforts should continue to involve the agency in the ongoing efforts to meet the requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At a wider community level it will be important that there is some understanding of climate change so that households, communities, businesses, and decision-makers are aware of actions that enhance disaster risk and vulnerability and those that promote adaptation. Wide ranging public education and awareness will be crucial to attempts to promote adaptive responses to climate change impacts on natural disasters. At the national level disaster awareness activities and programmes being implemented by NODS and other front-line disaster agencies should incorporate knowledge of ongoing and projected changes in climate. If these goals are to be realized system level resources, particularly financial and human resources, must be made available for development and implementation. Following this, an appropriate institutional structure will have to be established and personnel hired and trained. This, in itself, requires recognition at the policy formulation level of the importance of the issues and commitment to allocation of scarce resources towards this goal. At present some limited public awareness of climate change has been undertaken utilizing external funding and local technical resources. However, a major impediment is the absence of an agency specifically charged with the mandate and resources for climate change, including public awareness, on a sustained basis, although planned changes to the legal framework for the environment division should go some way in this regard. As noted above, also critical is the lack of a transparent, comprehensive or consistent national planning framework for sustainable development. The absence of an overall policy framework for sustainable development reduces the likelihood for the type of inter-agency coordination and networking required for stakeholder participation and ownership, as well as reducing the likelihood of effective implementation and monitoring. Public awareness is itself critical to overcoming these constraints by creating constituencies of support for adaptation to climate change, a subject that remains comparatively new on the development agenda. In this context the role of regional and international agencies also assumes greater significance as agents for articulating and increasing awareness of climate change as a primary development concern that should be integrated into ongoing and future development activities. At the sub-regional level the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) provides an existing institutional capacity for assisting in implementation of programmes for capacity building as well as

80

providing a forum for articulating and coordinating concerns for discussion of climate change at the wider regional and international levels. A.5 Risk Identification and Forecasting Forecast changes in global climate can be expected to adversely impact risk levels associated with events such as floods and storm surge. The risk identification process involves an understanding of a country’s natural hazards, assessing the level of vulnerability to them, and the preparation of risk identification studies for disaster mitigation activities. Important elements of the risk identification process include hazard monitoring and forecasting. A study by the Association of Caribbean States (ACS)46 indicates that Antigua and Barbuda is one of the Caribbean territories that has completed a significant amount of technical work in identifying a number of the principal meteorological hazards that affect the country. This work includes GIS mapping of flood prone areas as well as storm surge modelling. These tools allow disaster managers to assess the risks associated with particular locations based on available weather information and to issue warnings47. In Antigua and Barbuda, a principal challenge is in getting the information pertaining to flood and other risks incorporated into the development control and management process. At present, development approvals are the responsibility of the Development Control Authority (DCA) that is not required to coordinate or consult with NODS although such consultations do occur. Given the anticipated intensification in extreme weather events, the need now exists that a formalized mechanism be put into place to involve NODS in the decision making on certain types of projects (for example in high risk areas) that come for approval to the DCA. Another challenge is to maintain and update the available risk mapping data. At present NODS is without the in-house capability to produce this type of information and is therefore dependent on other agencies for this information. Given the importance of this type of data to disaster mitigation and response and the likely increase in weather related disaster events as a result of climate change, efforts to strengthen NODS should include developing an in-house capability for work in this field. Such capabilities would also be of significant assistance to NODS activities in the relief and rehabilitation phases of the disaster. These challenges and circumstances indicate capacity development needs at systemic, institutional and individual levels. At the macro policy level the need exists for stronger commitment to development control and the integration of climate change concerns (e.g., sea-level rise and warmer temperatures) into the development approval process. This will itself require a number of measures including the strengthening of NODS, the DCA

46 Survey of the Strengths, Weaknesses and Projects for Disaster management in ACS countries”. Association of Caribbean States. Port-of-Spain, Trinidad. November 2000. 47 One area where additional risk identification needs to be done is in relation to bush and forest fires as projections for drier conditions mean that the likelihood of these events, already a threat to ecology and property, can be expected to increase.

81

and other agencies in terms of technical capabilities and mandates, and even the improvement of the DCA’s physical plant. Particular attention should also be given to training of personnel to enable them to more effectively implement legislative and regulatory standards. Stakeholder involvement and consultation are also necessary to ensure the appropriateness of any new standards or requirements, and to foster public support and enforcement at the agency level. A.6 Disaster Preparedness Anticipated intensification in extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes and storms in the case of Antigua and Barbuda, will require an increased capability to cope with the increased risk of death and injury from these events. Notwithstanding the important strides in disaster management since 1995, climate change will mean that Antigua and Barbuda will need to further improve the country’s readiness to respond rapidly and effectively to save lives, reduce suffering, and enhance recovery in the event of disaster. Measures required in this regard include strengthening early warning and communications systems; preparation of contingency plans by utility companies and other providers of basic services; and enhancement of emergency shelters. The Met Office is able to provide high quality meteorological forecasts, a factor believed to have contributed substantially to the low fatality figures of recent hurricanes. Communications systems utilized for disaster preparedness range from the news media for public information to closed circuit communications between key agencies. Antigua and Barbuda’s high level of penetration of Internet use also opens the possibility for increased use of that media for providing official information to the public on disaster risks and hazards. In terms of strengthening early warning and communications systems, financial constraints have militated against the purchase of Doppler radar facilities that would provide real time full coverage of wind speeds and other critical parameters for Antigua and Barbuda. However, features of the service are provided via telephone linkage with meteorological authorities in Guadeloupe, although with less detailed coverage than if the system was installed in Antigua and Barbuda. Arising from the experiences of the 1995-99 hurricane seasons, the various utility companies have in place disaster management plans. The same applies to a greater and lesser extent to other providers of basic and essential services such as the airport and hospital. In some cases, lack of technical capacity hinders the process of development and testing of emergency plans and this presents a serious obstacle to overall efforts at strengthening disaster response capabilities. The projected impacts of global climate change can be expected to result in more intense, and possibly more frequent hurricanes and tropical storm activity. This will increase the demand for emergency shelters, both before and after the storm. Stronger winds mean that shelters must increasingly be purpose-built to function as emergency shelters in addition to their other normal uses. Engineering and architectural expertise must therefore

82

be utilized to ensure that emergency shelters are available at the required standard for use. Similar attention must be placed by NODS and other officials as to the arrangements in place for management of the shelters. Actions for development of adaptive capacity for disaster preparedness in a context of climate change will therefore require interventions by a range of stakeholders. This points to the importance of further strengthening those institutions with key disaster response administration and coordination capabilities and the necessity for those agencies to be able to provide technical support on adaptive measures to stakeholders in public and private sectors. These institutions will require clear legal mandates and the technical and administrative ability to fulfil the functions above. At all three levels of the capacity development paradigm, there is need for action to enable adaptation to extreme events that can likely be expected from climate change. Policy level commitment is required to ensure that serious efforts are devoted to the preparation and testing of emergency management procedures and that the skills are imparted, at public and private sector levels, for the development and implementation of these procedures. Community action and mobilization are essential for disaster preparedness and financial and human resources need to be allocated to strengthening this level of adaptive action in the context of the challenges arising from climate change. This requires system level commitment in terms of financial resources, a supportive policy environment, and commitment to ensuring capacities at the agency level. Additionally, pursuit of such measures will require that institutional level resources are available in terms of an effectively structured, staffed and financed entity capable of meeting the expanding scope of responsibilities it is likely to face as a result of the increase in weather related hazards associated with climate change. Finally, at the level of the individual, issues such as adequacy of training, motivation and reward are likely to be crucial considerations in light of generally low indicators on these parameters in the public service.

Given the existing weaknesses at the national level there is the need for strengthening ongoing efforts by CDERA and others to support national level agencies like NODS through technical assistance, best practice guidance, and development of technical specifications in areas such as standards for shelter facilities to Antigua and Barbuda and other vulnerable Caribbean communities. A.7 Disaster Mitigation Disaster mitigation refers to attempts to reduce the long-term risk from natural hazards to people, property and development processes. Mitigation activities range from the design of engineering works such as retrofitting of buildings to environmental measures such as soil conservation. Non-structural mitigation measures include the design and application of building codes and standards, land use planning, and community awareness

83

campaigns. Antigua and Barbuda already has in place a modern building code incorporating measures for hurricane and earthquake resistance. Problems relate to enforcement of these standards since the DCA is without the manpower resources that would allow it to effectively monitor and control all building activity in Antigua and Barbuda. Since the 1995 hurricane season, however, there is greater interest on the part of property owners to comply with storm related mitigation measures as well as widespread awareness of the types of structural measures that reduce property risks. Insurance companies have also played a major role in promoting adoption of structural standards for buildings. With technical support from agencies like the Environment Division of the Ministry of Tourism and the Environment and the Environment Awareness Group (EAG), there is also emerging awareness of the need for proactive management of the environment for reducing the threats to persons and property from disaster risks. This is demonstrated in recent efforts by the Crabbe Hill community to initiate a reforestation project aimed at mitigating landslides in heavy rains and coastal erosion in beachfront areas of the community48. This is significant since Crabbe Hill has been a community particularly hard hit by hurricanes during the 1990s. Another community concern has been the problem of stray goats in the English Harbour/Falmouth area as recognition grows regarding their impact on soil erosion and destruction of vegetation. Within the private sector, at least one leading insurance company has introduced a programme of reductions for premiums based on the types of mitigation measures (such as hurricane shutters) being used by the policyholder. Where professional engineering expertise is utilized in the design and construction stages of the property, estimated reductions in premiums of up to 40% have been realized. However, such initiatives are generally rare and there is the need for greater awareness at the level of civil society of the factors contributing to the types of disaster risks that can be expected to worsen as a result of climate change, and of the actions that should be taken to address these problems. One major gap in the context of efforts to reduce disaster risk is the absence of any legal requirement for conduct of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for particular categories of development. Although EIAs have been conducted on a few, primarily tourism projects, it is not clear what criteria are used for final decision making on the scope or nature of the development. In many instances, lack of understanding of disaster risk processes has resulted in such environmental and disaster risk features as development in hazard prone areas such as dry stream courses. More importantly for disaster risk reduction, the EIA can provide a scientific and transparent tool for incorporating concerns about disaster mitigation into development and would be an important step in getting concerns for disaster risk reduction incorporated into development planning. As noted above, some mechanism should also be put into place to

48 See “ Reforestation project to begin in Crabbe Hill”. Antigua Sun. Thursday 9 0ctober 2003

84

facilitate formalised technical input from NODS into the decision making of development activities that may enhance vulnerability to disaster events. In addition to regulatory efforts, opportunities exist for promoting climate change adaptation through disaster mitigation actions involving financial incentives49. Insurance companies in Antigua and Barbuda are already using financial measures to promote adoption of hurricane resistant techniques in building construction and have re-appraised premiums on coastal properties considered to be particularly at risk to storm surge. Such policies on the part of insurance companies reflects concern at regional and international corporate levels of risks associated with global climate change and it is likely that there is still comparatively limited appreciation within the insurance industry in Antigua and Barbuda of the risk management issues relevant to climate change in the Caribbean. Opportunities for advancing disaster mitigation concerns in a context of climate change will be dependent on the availability of national institutions with sufficient technical and other capacities for promoting adaptation. As with the other priority areas above, the existence of a favourable policy environment will be essential in providing the platform for the development of functional agencies with the legal mandate, technical capabilities, and fiscal resources able to facilitate adaptation to future extreme weather events. The existing constraints to capacity development in this area suggests the utility of regional approaches particularly given the commonalities among technical and capacity needs within the Caribbean50. A.8 Planned and Ongoing Projects The increasing concerns as to the devastation and set-backs to sustainable development caused by hydro-meteorological disasters and the increasing awareness of the Earth’s changing climate has led to various efforts to address both of these development issues. This section will briefly review some of the principal ongoing and proposed projects intended to build capacity for climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness and mitigation. The section is not intended to provide a comprehensive list of climate change adaptation or disaster mitigation projects but to provide an indication of some of the principal activities ongoing in this field of which Antigua and Barbuda is a participating country, and that relate to capacity development for adaptation to climate change. It should be noted that these activities are in many instances themselves the product of earlier initiatives. For example, in relation to climate change, these activities follow an earlier UNEP pilot project that played an important role in building some initial capacity for climate change. This is even more so for the disaster management community that has experience in cooperation with a number of development agencies in various capacity building activities over the years. All of the programmes identified below possess capacity building components although the level of resources and other factors vary. These programmes should be seen as

49 Antigua and Barbuda participated in a pilot activity on economic instruments under the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACCC) project. 50 See ACS, “Survey of Strengths, Weaknesses and Projects for Disaster Management in ACS Countries”.

85

representing important elements of the overall capacity framework for adaptation to climate change related disaster risk. • Climate Change Enabling Activity These activities are intended to equip Antigua and Barbuda with the technical resources and capabilities for fulfilling its reporting responsibilities under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This includes preparation of an inventory of greenhouse gases, undertaking vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and an indication of steps being taken to fulfil obligations under the UNFCCC. Most significant for adaptation is that at present, these activities constitute the principal mechanism for transfer of methodologies and tools for vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The country has already submitted its initial national communications report and is expected to begin the process for preparation of the second national communications shortly. In addition to the immediate reporting requirements of the UNFCCC, the enabling activities can be seen as assisting in raising national capabilities through training and information exchange. In terms of capacity building, the programme utilises primarily local resource persons with oversight and guidance provided by international experts. A national workshop on climate modelling has been conducted to expose local resource persons to vulnerability methodologies. Some limited public awareness activities have also been conducted. Training is also envisaged for the second national communication. Administrative arrangements for the enabling activity project reside with the Office of the Prime Minister, the national focal point for UNDP activities. Close operational cooperation and coordination exists with the Environment Division and the Met Office. A small multi-sectoral coordinating committee includes the Met Office and NODS. Funding in the amount of US$261,000, over five years, has been provided by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and UNDP. Plans are underway for hosting of the climate change website on the Met Office’s website. • Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) The project’s objective is to create the capacity and the environment within CARICOM countries to implement adaptation measures to minimise the adverse impact of climate change. The main elements of the project include expanding and strengthening the technical and information capacity to assess vulnerability and the risks associated with global climate change to build the capacity to formulate adaptation policy options to reduce vulnerability; to support specific adaptation measures or (demonstration projects); to encourage regional positions on adaptation; and the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change in national development planning and public and private sector development strategies. The predecessor CPACC project has played a pivotal role in creating awareness of

86

concerns for climate change among Caribbean governments, developing initial climate change databases, and contributing to technical capacity on climate change in the Caribbean. Significantly, the MACC is aimed at the establishment of a permanent, regional institutional capability under the CARICOM framework for ensuring sustained attention to climate change adaptation issues. Some attention has already been paid through the CPACC/MACC modalities for involving disaster management practitioners in various workshops and consultations pertaining to climate change. Administrative arrangements for the establishment of the MACC are presently underway. • National Communications Support Programme (NCSP) Adaptation Policy

Framework (APF) The Adaptation Policy Framework project is an approach to developing adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to advance adaptation in the face of climate variability and climate change. The APF aims to link climate change adaptation to sustainable development and other global environmental issues and to build on the initial experience of climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies, and complement existing adaptation methodological guidance developed by the IPCC and UNEP. The APF is intended to enable near-term action on adaptation particularly in relation to assisting developing countries in incorporating identification of adaptation priorities into their national communications processes. The APF places particular attention on recent experiences with climate variability and extreme events as a guide for assessing vulnerability and adaptation responses to the likely impacts of global climate change. The APF process is intended to result in a set of adaptation strategies, policies and measures that a country can readily implement. The project is operationalised through a series of global technical workshops, the development of technical papers, a users guidebook, and via electronic and hard copy distribution of materials intended to strengthen capacities for adaptation at the implementation level. The project is administered from UNDP headquarters in New York. • Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Programme (CHAMP) The CHAMP is intended to allow Caribbean countries to develop comprehensive natural hazard vulnerability reduction initiatives through development of national hazard mitigation policies, creation of appropriate policy implementation programmes through comprehensive hazard mitigation frameworks and the development and implementation of safer building training and certification programmes. The project seeks the integration of hazard concerns into development planning and includes components designed to allow for capacity development at systemic, institutional, and individual levels through activities relating to policy development, data collection, development of management plans, hazard mapping and vulnerability assessment, and training and certification programmes.

87

Implementation of project responsibilities rests with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) in conjunction with the Organization of American States (OAS) with funding of Can$2.3 M provided primarily by the government of Canada. • Comprehensive Approach for Disaster Management in the Caribbean This two-year US$210,000 project is intended to provide Caribbean countries with guidance as to the process for integrating comprehensive disaster management into development planning through development of a regional strategy, strengthening CDERA’s capacities in this area, and building national level support for the strategy. In terms of capacity development, this project targets development of system-wide policy relevant processes and strategies aimed at reducing vulnerability and risks. Project activities concluded in 2003, and were administered by CDERA. Funding for the project has come primarily from UNDP and the government of the USA.

• Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Project The overall goal of this project is to mitigate damage in CDERA member States resulting from weather related, particularly flood hazard, events. The project intends to train professionals in hazard mapping and disaster management planning, in CDERA member States, and equip them to prepare hazard maps and disaster management plans for hazard vulnerable areas. The efforts to achieve integration of the project is implemented by CDERA, and funded by the government of Japan at a cost of US$3m.

The project objectives include strengthening and establishing a system for flood hazard mapping, enhancing the capability for community disaster management, improvement of the capacity of CDERA as a disaster information warehouse/clearing house, enhanced recognition of the importance and usefulness of hazard maps and disaster management plans among member states, provision of equipment for information technology and reinforcement of the database and communication networks, and the delivery of training courses on hazard mapping and community disaster management. Actual project implementation will be on the basis of pilot activities in select countries with these experiences being shared through training and other technical products with other Caribbean countries. The project activities aim to allow for capacity development at systemic, institutional, and individual levels. These are embodied in management tools at the national level, provision of needed capital inputs for information and communications technologies, and efforts to upgrade skills among personnel involved in community and technical levels. A.9 Capacity Development Requirements The lack of capacity to manage and adapt to climate related risks is already a development issue in Antigua and Barbuda. The weaknesses in capacity to respond to the

88

risks associated with current climate variability, and with already occurring extreme climate events, can be expected to also restrict adaptive capacity to extreme events in the future if no action is taken to address these core concerns. Strengthening national and local capacities to manage climate related risks, as currently exists is, therefore, the first step to manage more intense climate risks in the future. Medium and long-term adaptation to climate change must therefore involve efforts to improve current risk management and adaptation initiatives and activities. This will need to be based on best practices arising from past and present experiences of vulnerability and adaptation. As noted above, four principal technical and thematic areas – enhanced awareness, disaster mitigation, risk identification and forecasting, and disaster preparedness –are required for strengthening of capacity in this field. To be successful, all of the thematic areas require participation and involvement of civil society actors so that enhanced capacity is in effect required at the societal/national level. This in turn will be most successful where appropriate policy frameworks, institutional structures, and human resource capabilities are in place. Antigua and Barbuda lacks the financial resources for enabling successful adaptation to climate change. At present most public expenditure is devoted to recurrent expenditure and repayment of loans. This severely constrains the extent of resources devoted to risk management and other medium to long-term development concerns. Implementation of sustainable financing mechanisms will be critical for development of capacity at all levels of the capacity development framework but will likely be dependent on socio-economic and international factors affecting national economic performance, especially the fiscal performance of government. Consequently, and also directly relevant in this regard will be the development of an economic framework that facilitates risk reduction and advances adaptive measures. At the institutional level, the cross-sectoral nature of climate change means that a number of agencies and organizations are likely to be directly involved in managing the impacts and adaptations associated with this phenomenon. This will require that the mandates, functions, and structures of these agencies incorporate the ability to provide the information, scientific, and administrative roles that will need to be pursued for enabling the type of adaptive priorities identified above. As in most small island communities, the issue of preventing the drain of technical capacity at the institutional level is a challenge. In response to the influence of macro-economic and institutional features that constrain adaptation to climate change, efforts need to be made to facilitate efficiency and professionalism at the institutional level if there is to be adequacy of technical resources. Regional cooperation is likely to play an important role in providing technical support, networking and equipment that can assist in overcoming some of the constraints at the institutional level confronting the development of the necessary adaptive capacity for extreme weather events.

89

Crucial to the efforts at the institutional level to integrate concerns for climate change into the disaster risk reduction and management effort will be the establishment of a national authority for climate change. Among the responsibilities of this agency will be to liase with disaster response agencies in providing technical support and coordination. Given the limited number of persons with expertise in climate change related issues in Antigua and Barbuda, capacity building at the individual level is required to expand the number of persons with technical and scientific understanding of climate change including the relationship with extreme weather events and the possibilities for disaster vulnerability and risk reduction. Particular attention should be placed on developing capacities in the four priority thematic areas. Efforts should include training and public awareness for fostering community and civil society participation. Ongoing and planned regional disaster management and climate change projects will provide important opportunities for enhancing capacity at the level of the individual. A.10 Conclusion Adaptation to extreme weather events projected to occur as a result of global climate change are likely to be among the greatest challenges for the world community in responding to the adverse effects of climate change. Arising from a set of circumstances that include small size and geographical position in the Atlantic hurricane zone, Antigua and Barbuda and other small islands in the eastern Caribbean are already at risk from the physical and socio-economic consequences of various existing extreme weather events. The potentially devastating impacts of global climate change, and in particular the effect that this could have on the nature of extreme weather events such as hurricanes and droughts, makes the future development prospects of small island countries such as Antigua and Barbuda even more daunting. The IPCC in its Third Assessment Report (TAR), noted that while adaptation to measured changes in climate could possibly be adapted to, the prospect of rapid adverse trends in extreme weather events will be much more difficult to cope with: in fact many communities have difficulties coping with present day weather extremes. This is particularly important for Antigua and Barbuda where limited resources and high vulnerability across a range of indicators make the right choices for adaptation even more important. National development programmes and projects planned for the future will be affected by climate change. Additionally, activities now being undertaken will themselves affect the natural resource base and therefore its potential for responding to any adverse impacts of climate change. It is, therefore, crucial that policy makers take early actions to begin to integrate climate change considerations into their development planning. IPCC projections for global climate change indicate an increase in air temperatures, more intense drought conditions, and stronger hurricanes likely to enhance risks and vulnerabilities associated with extreme weather events. Limited experience with adaptation to anthropogenic climate change, as well as the

90

uncertainties of the timing and extent of climate change, means that adaptation will need to build on past experiences and best scientific knowledge of future conditions. The assessment above has identified a number of thematic areas for priority attention if Antigua and Barbuda is to adapt as best as possible, to changes in disaster risk brought about by global climate change. These include:

i. Enhanced awareness. ii. Risk identification and forecasting to understand and identify vulnerability and

disaster risk. iii. Disaster preparedness to enhance readiness to cope promptly and effectively with

weather related disaster emergencies, and; iv. Disaster mitigation to address structural sources of disaster risk and vulnerability

including economic and regulatory measures. Implementation of these thematic areas will however be dependent on the existence of systemic, institutional and individual capacities for disaster risk management and for integrating climate change concerns into development planning and community response. Particularly important will be the establishment of a coordinating and management authority for climate change. Existing and planned regional and international programmes for climate change and disaster response provide important opportunities for strengthening adaptive capacity in areas where national resources are limited. As identified above, concerns for some form of capacity building are an integral focus of most of the project activities for climate change and disaster management. The results of these external initiatives will, however, be dependent on the existence of a favourable enabling environment at the level of public policy. This will determine the extent to which other elements of the capacity development framework such as legislation, public awareness, and training will be successful. As a small island community, Antigua and Barbuda will be on the front line of the impacts of global climate change although its contribution to the problem is largely infinitesimal. While heroic measures must be made to ensure survival and promote development in the face of this unprecedented challenge to humanity, ultimately, efforts must also run in parallel to address the issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions if the objectives of the UNFCCC are to be realized.

91

APPENDIX B

DOMINICA B. OVERVIEW The Commonwealth of Dominica (Dominica) is situated in the Caribbean Sea, at 15º12’-15º39’, N Latitude and 61º14’-61º29’ W Longitude. It is the largest of the Windward Islands with a total land area of 750.6 sq. km (290 sq. miles). It is 48 km long, and 24 km wide at its widest point and has a total land area of 79,000 hectares (ha). Dominica is a volcanic island with a series of complex mountain ranges, characterized by very rugged and steep terrain. Flat land is restricted to coastal areas in the northeast, in river valleys and in certain areas in the centre of the island. The topographical diversity has produced a rich array of flora and fauna with extensive rainforests, a multitude of rivers, and cascading waterfalls and this has earned the island the name “The Nature Island of the Caribbean.” Forest dominates the island’s landscape. Sixty-six percent (66%) of the land area (51,752 ha) is covered by vegetation ranging from dry scrub woodland on the coast to lush, tropical forest in the interior. This vegetation consists of approximately 155 families, 672 genera and 1226 species of vascular plants (Nicolson, 1991). Dominica is also host to the most diverse assemblage of wildlife species remaining in the Eastern Caribbean. The greatest diversity of animal life occurs in the rain forest and includes two endemic parrot species Amazona imperialis and Amazona arausiaca that are considered endangered and threatened, respectively, (IUCN Red Data List), and are listed as specially protected birds under Dominican law. Other types of wildlife include reptiles, amphibians, freshwater fish, crustaceans and insects. Its interior contains an extensive network of surface and underground water and is interspersed with rivers, waterfalls and lakes. The island is widely reported to have 365 rivers – one for each day of the year. The ten largest rivers all have average annual flows of 10 million gallons per day. This extensive supply of surface water has provided the island with significant potential for hydro-electricity, some of which has already been tapped, providing up to 56% of gross electricity generated in 1994. Dominica experiences a significant amount of seismic activity. During the period 1998/99 there were recordings of 183 movements in one day, on October 23, 1998. It is estimated that over 90% of the population live within 5 kilometres of a live volcano. Recent eruptions scenarios developed by Sherperd et. al. (2000), indicate that it is more likely than not that Dominica will experience a magmatic eruption in the next one hundred (100) years, with a probability of “1 in 5” that it will occur in the next ten (10) years. The island has a maritime tropical climate, which is influenced by the North East Trade

92

Winds. The island’s rugged topography results in micro-climatic variability within very short distances. The main climatic characteristics are: A relative humidity of about 95% with little seasonal, or diurnal variation.

High rainfall, which makes the country susceptible to landslides, particularly in the

more mountainous regions. This is distributed between a drier season from December - April and a wetter season from June - November.

Average temperatures of 27°C. This varies between a maximum of 33°C along the

coast and 27°C in the mountains during the day, and a minimum of 18°C and to 12°C respectively, during the night.

Dominica is situated in the tropical Atlantic “hurricane belt”, and since 1979, has been impacted by fifteen (15) tropical weather systems, eleven (11) of which were hurricanes. Statistically Dominica averages a direct strike or close range hit (within 60 miles) by a cyclonic storm system every 3.82 years. The frequent hurricanes have had a significant adverse impact on the social and economic development of the country. Dominica is the least populated of the Windward Islands, with a population of 71,727 (2001), at an average density of 96 persons per sq. km. A 1995 Draft Poverty Assessment, by the British Development Division (BDD) estimated the level of poverty in Dominica at 27.6%51. Gross Domestic Product52 in 2001 was US$263.1M, with annual growth rates ranging between 0.7% and 2.8% for the 1997–2000 period. The GDP decreased by 4.6% in 2001. The main sectoral contributors to GDP were Government Services (21.4%), Agriculture (17.2%), Banking and Insurance (11.9%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (11.9%). The performance on some other key macro-economic indicators was: Per Capita Income - GNP per capita was US$3,668 in 2001. Unemployment - Unemployment was 23% in the year 2000. The quality of the labour force remains largely non-technical and untrained for the industrial and service thrust of the economy. Inflation - The inflation rate, measured as the average annual percentage change in the consumer prices index fluctuated between 0.0% and 2.2% for the 1997 to 2001 period. The rate at the end of 2001 was estimated at 1.9%. Exchange Rates - Dominica shares a common currency with the rest of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) – the Eastern Caribbean dollar (EC$). The EC exchange rate is set by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) and has been pegged

51 Poverty was defined as households spending 60% or more of their income on food. 52 GDP at Factor Cost in constant (1990) prices

93

to the United States dollar (US$) at a rate of US$1.00 to EC$2.70, since 1983. Public Debt - The outstanding public external debt was US$174.7 M at the end of 2001, with debt servicing representing 10.6% of the value of domestic exports of goods and services. The 4.6% decline in GDP experienced in 2001 was driven by an 11.4% decline in the agricultural sector and a 14.8% decline in manufacturing. This precipitated an economic crisis and resulted in the Government entering into a standby arrangement with the International Monetary Fund in August 2002. The IMF Report at the end of the first year of the Standby Agreement stated that, “Economic activity continues to decline. Most performance criteria for end-December 2002, and indicative targets for end-March 2003, were not observed and the public sector continued to accumulate arrears. Most structural benchmarks were also not observed, and the program has been off-track since late 2002.”53 Among other things, GDP fell by a further 4.75% in 2002, reflecting lower exports and tourism receipts as well as “an unforeseen sharp decline in public and private investment.”54 Against this background, the authorities have signed a Revised Letter of Intent with the IMF, committing to a strengthened policy framework to be implemented in two (2) stages. In the first stage, expected to last about six months, the budgetary financing crisis is dealt with through a mix of policy adjustment measures and donor financing under an extended Standby Arrangement. In the second phase, expected to commence in early 2004, a more comprehensive reform program to foster growth and ensure debt sustainability is being developed. B.1 Types and Historical Impacts of Hazards/Disasters There is no formal system in place for assessing and recording the impacts of hazards and disasters in Dominica. In such circumstances, it is up to the affected sectors to carry out their own assessments. There are no requirements to submit these assessments to the national disaster authorities, and as a result most are not submitted. There is, therefore, no comprehensive assessment available in Dominica of the historical impact of hazard and disaster losses. However, Dominica was the subject of a World Bank Case Study on “Natural Disasters and Economic Development in a Small Island State55” which sought to quantify the economic impact of natural disasters on Dominica. Highlights from that case study are

53 IMF, First Review under the Standby Arrangement and Requests for Extension of the Agreement and for Waiver of Performance Criteria – pg.2 54 IMF, Ibid, pg.5 55 As part of its efforts to promote disaster prevention and mitigation as an integral part of development activities, the World Bank's Disaster Management Facility (DMF) is undertaking a study on the economic and financial consequences of natural disasters, with the support of the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID). The study entails a state-of-the art review and three country case studies – Dominica, Bangladesh and a drought-sensitive southern African economy.

94

used in this section where noted, with the remainder of the information coming from the Initial National Communication. The main disasters that have occurred in Dominica over the last 30 years have been wrought by tropical cyclones. Dominica is situated in the tropical Atlantic “hurricane belt” and since 1979, has been impacted by fifteen (15) tropical weather systems, eleven (11) of which were hurricanes. These systems included Hurricane David (1979), Allen (1980), Hugo (1989), Tropical Storm Iris, Hurricane Luis and Marilyn in 1995, and Lenny (1999). Statistically, Dominica averages a direct strike or close range hit (within 60 miles) by a cyclonic storm system every 3.82 years. The information available on the impact of these tropical cyclones indicates that they have had a significant adverse impact on the development of the social and economic infrastructure of the country, viz:

Macro-economic impact - In the case of Dominica, natural disasters have clearly had a major impact on economic performance since 1978. The combined impact of Hurricane David in 1979, followed closely by Hurricane Frederick, and then by Hurricane Allen in 1980, was particularly devastating, reflecting both the scale of physical damage and disruption caused, as well as an already weak economy. During the 1970s, economic performance had been relatively poor, in part due to the consequence of the world oil crisis of 1973-1974, and escalating import prices. A further oil crisis occurred in 1979, and there were also mounting political difficulties in the immediate post-Independence period. As a consequence, real GDP plummeted by 17% in 1979, whilst agricultural GDP alone fell by 32% and non-agricultural GDP declined by 8.3%. Despite some recovery in non-agricultural sectors, agricultural GDP fell by a further 2.1% in 1980, so that overall GDP remained 3.3% lower than in 1978 and the visible trade deficit increased to 71% of GDP. Poor economic performance in 1980 reflected the further impact of Hurricane Allen. Hurricane David also resulted in the temporary exodus of almost 20,000 people, equivalent to about a quarter of the pre-disaster (1978) population. This exodus included many school-aged children and there is anecdotal evidence of skill shortages hampering reconstruction. Twenty years later, the population had still not recovered to its 1978 level. These severe multiple shocks also brought intensified budgetary pressures from increasing recurrent expenditure on relief and capital costs of reconstruction56.

Human Settlements - Hurricane David in 1979 left 60 percent of the population

homeless and 39 deaths were reported. Twenty-five deaths due to landslides have been recorded, including eight fatalities in the village of Bagatelle, during heavy rain in 1977.

56 Dominica: National Disasters and Economic Development in a Small Island State, pg. 14

95

Agriculture - In 1995, 100% of Dominica’s economically important banana crop was lost to Hurricanes Luis, Marilyn, and Iris. Dominica also suffered major coastal damage from these hurricanes. Hurricane Lenny also significantly impacted the agriculture sector in 1999. The estimated losses were over US$ 3,860,000. This included damage inflicted to crops (banana and non-banana), losses due to left back bananas on the ports, and infrastructure, for example.

Table B.1: Estimated Values of Non Banana Crop Losses from Hurricane

Lenny CROP ESTIMATED

ACREAGE (HA)

DAMAGE DESCRIPTION

ESTIMATED AFFECTED ACREAGE

TOTAL PRODUCTION

LOSS (US$) Plantain 242.92 Broken Stems 60.73 668,843.30 Tannia 141.70 Topples/damaged trees 7.09 103,171.64 Dasheen 323.89 Erosion/removal by

raging waterways 16.19 149,253.73

Yams 242.92 Drainage failure/removal by raging waterways

4.86 83,731.34

Grapefruit 808.72 Toppling Fruit loss 32.39 29,850.75 Oranges 546.56 Toppling Fruit loss 27.32 100,746.26 Cocoa 101.21 Broken branches 2.02 2,091.42 Avocado 141.70 Broken branches 7.09 32,649.25 Nutmegs 1.62 Fruit loss n.a n.a Vegetables 141.7 Crop loss/drain bed

failure 16.19 298,507.46

Total 2692.94 173.88 1,468,844.90 Source: Commonwealth of Dominica Provisional Assessment Task Force Report to the Ministry of Agriculture

Fisheries - Hurricanes have also had major social and economic impacts on the

fisheries sector. In Hurricane David in 1979, approximately 75% of the boats were destroyed and 25% of engines were lost. Information was not available for losses caused by Hurricane Hugo, but it is known that some losses were sustained. The three storms that affected Dominica in 1995 are estimated to have wrought EC$3.5m in damage. Hurricane Luis alone destroyed 10 fishing boats and set back the completion of the Roseau Fisheries Complex by six months, at an additional cost of EC$2m. In 1999, a fuller assessment for Hurricane Lenny estimates infrastructure and equipment damage at EC$4.9m, including EC$3.4m at the Fisheries Complex in Roseau. The assessment also reports other categories of loss, including employment at EC$0.5m and environmental resource damage to coral reefs and sea grass beds at EC$2.2m (GoCD, 1999c)57.

Eco-tourism - The eco-tourism sector was negatively affected as a result of the

destruction of nature trails (paths, signs, benches), with significant reduction in revenue generation during the Layou/Carholm landslides in 1997 and 1998, in


96

which approximately 16 ha of land were lost. The damage caused by the series of landslides and subsequent flooding has had a significant impact on biodiversity in the lower reaches of the watershed, as well as on marine and coastal ecosystems. The events also caused social disruption and economic damage to farmers and other property owners in the area. The total damage to the agricultural sector (crops, livestock, equipment and infrastructure) was estimated at approximately US$217,000.

Infrastructure – The rehabilitation costs of major storms since 1979 amounted to

around EC$380m (US$140m) in 1999 prices, equivalent to EC$18m per annum, and for key economic infrastructure alone - roads, electricity, water, telecommunications and international transport links – around EC$10m. Buildings, including social infrastructure of schools and hospitals, have accounted for around 45% of total costs and economic infrastructure for 55%. Dominica Port Authority (DPA) assets, including the deep-water port at Woodbridge Bay and at Portsmouth Harbor, have also continued to suffer substantial damage. Telecommunications costs have remained relatively high as well.58

Water Supply – Table B.2 shows the cost to DOWASCO in line repair,

maintenance and relocation after Hurricane Lenny. Most of the damage was sustained on the west coast, which rarely sustains a direct hit by a hurricane.

Table B.2: DOWASCO Estimated Costs after Hurricane Lenny

District Description Cost ($US)

Scott’s Head Material, Labour & Equipment 41,561.00 Colihaut Material, Labour & Equipment 1,798.00 Mahaut Material, Labour & Equipment 1,023.00 St. Aroment Material, Labour & Equipment 6,257.00 Toucarie / Cottage Material, Labour & Equipment 2,138.00 Pipe relocation to other roadside 6,749.00 Dublanc, Coulibistrie, Campbell, Massacre, Canefield/Fond Cole, Lousiville, Bath Estate, Goodwill, Delices, La Plaine, Pte. Michel, Loubiere, Citronie, Newton, Soufriere

Maintenance

18,403.00

Mero Distribution Line Relocation of line from bay to the Main Road

42,402.00

Roseau (Goodwill, Canefield) Sanitation 5,521.000 TOTAL $ 125,852.00

Forestry - Hurricane David, a category 4 Hurricane in 1979, caused severe damage to the forest of Dominica. It is estimated that 60% of the tropical forest was damaged. Unda (1986) reported that most of the trees were de-branched, 42% of the standing volume was damaged, and 11% completely destroyed (broken off or uprooted).


97

Biodiversity - Hurricane David, for example, caused the devastation of feeding

and nesting sites of both of Dominica’s endemic parrots. The populations of these two endangered parrots reached critical levels as low as 60 (A. imperialis) and 200 (A. arausiaca).

B.2 Climate Change Vulnerability Dominica’s Initial National Communication contains an assessment of Dominica’s vulnerability to global climate change based on expert opinion. That approach was used in the absence of relevant models and data with which to assess the local impacts of climate change. The projected major manifestations of climate change, as contained in the Initial National Communication, are:

Increase in temperature; Sea Level rise; Overall reduction in volume of precipitation, but increase in intensity; and, Increased frequency and intensity of extreme events (tropical cyclones, rainfall

and drought). Table B.3 summarises the potential impacts on the various sectors as described in the Initial National Communication.

Table B.3: Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Dominica Climate Change Manifestation

Infrastructure/ Human Settlements

Agriculture Tourism Health Water Supply Ecosystems


Crop stress due to higher evapo-transpiration

Decline in visitor arrivals due to increased competition

Heat Stress

Reduced water supplies

Alteration in range of species

Increase in forests pests and disease

Sea Level Rise Higher storm surges

Coastal flooding

Infrastructure damage

Salinity of ground water aquifers near to coast

Beach erosion

Coral bleach

Salinity of drinking water


Mangrove retreat & loss


Flood damage from more intense rainfall

Landslides

Flood damage

Landslides Pests and

diseases

Damage to eco-tourist sites

Increased exposure to water borne diseases

Decrease in water quality

Damage to supply lines

Damage from soil erosion and landslides

98


Drought Low yields due to reduced rainfall

Increased Gastro-enteritis and Asthma

Decrease in water supplies

Tropical Cyclones

Physical damage from wind, rainfall, storm surges

Physical damage from wind, rainfall

Damage to critical infrastruc-ture, beaches

Physical damage, decrease in water quality, disruption in water availability

Physical damage from wind and landslides

These manifestations are projected to increase the adverse impacts of the hazards discussed in the foregoing sections, namely, tropical cyclones and landslides. The former are expected to become more frequent and intense, while the latter will result from the more intense rainfall that is projected. These climate change manifestations are also likely to increase the frequency and intensity of storm surges, floods and droughts and to create new hazards including heat stress and increased incidence of tropical diseases outbreaks. The impacts resulting from climate change will therefore not be restricted to the physical impacts on infrastructure and human settlements. They are also projected to extend to the major socio-economic sectors like agriculture, tourism, water supply and health, as well as to critical eco-systems like forests, beaches, coral reefs and mangroves.

This conclusion is independently shared by the authors of the World Bank case study who state that, “… a related issue is the environmental damage that may be caused by global climatic change. Rising air and water temperatures may increase the intensity and incidence of tropical storms, bringing wind damage, severe coastal sea conditions and flooding, as well as changes in the hydrological cycle that could lead to both longer drought periods and more intense rainfall”59. B.3 Current Capacity - Institutional Structure Disaster management in Dominica is organized within the Ministry of Communications, Works and Housing (MCWH) through the National Emergency Planning Organisation (NEPO). NEPO is comprised of senior officials from Government, the private sector and the NGO community and has the responsibility for formulating overall disaster management policy and strategy. The National Emergency Executive Committee (NEEC) –a sub-committee of NEPO - manages NEPO programming and day-to-day activities are implemented through the Office of Disaster Management (ODM), a small unit within the MCWH, which is headed by a National Disaster Coordinator and has one (1) staff support person.


99

The Mission Statement of the ODM is: “The ODM seeks to put in place mechanisms to allow the country to prepare for, prevent where possible, mitigate against, respond adequately to the effects of natural or man made hazards and allow for the timely and effective rehabilitation/reconstruction/recovery of the country following such an event.” The stated objectives of the ODM are:

To promote the prevention, control and prediction of natural disasters and to take necessary measures for dealing with manmade disasters. This would include such matters as the following:

a) To keep the population and its property, installations etc., constantly prepared

for emergency arising from a hurricane or other natural phenomena; b) To keep under review and to take all appropriate action on matters likely to

reduce danger and devastation from natural or manmade disasters; c) To supervise generally, the warning system and the organization for dealing

with emergencies; d) To direct and control rescue and relief work; e) To maintain liaison with the press, radio and television and to organize

programmes for public information and education; f) To organise surveys of deaths, injuries and damage after each emergency and

to take action on the lessons learned; and g) To upgrade the national plan from time to time and the development of other

plans to deal with new hazards. The work of the ODM is supported by nine (9) disaster sector sub-committees of the NEEC comprising government ministries, emergency services, and private and voluntary organizations, which plan for and implement the following disaster management functions, viz:

Welfare Food and General Supplies Health Services Environmental Pollution Public Utilities Transport and Equipment Emergency Shelters Public Relations (Information & Education) Telecommunications

In addition, there are District Emergency Committees that carry out NEPO’s mandate at the District level, with District Emergency Operations Centres (DEOC’s) that are

100

activated in times of disaster and Community Emergency Committees that carry out NEPO’s mandate at Community level, with Community Emergency Operations Centres (CEOC’s) that are activated in times of disaster. While this arrangement brings most of the public sector’s disaster mitigation and rehabilitation expenditure and preparedness under one ministry, it gives the role for national coordination to a line ministry and that may not enable disaster management policy issues to receive sufficiently high priority in overall economic planning and budgetary policy or the activities of other ministries60. This contention is independently supported by the Disaster Audit Report61 that strongly recommends that the ODM should be transferred to the Prime Minister’s Ministry, as is the case in most other CARICOM countries. B.4 Disaster Management Policy Framework There is no formal Disaster Management Policy in Dominica, and the basic approach to Disaster Management is response oriented. The only guide to Disaster Management is the National Disaster Plan which was formulated in 1996, and which is focused on disaster preparedness and response. It outlines the duties and responsibilities of various government, civil, and private organisations enabling the country to be in a constant state of preparedness, that necessary precautions can be taken after warning of an imminent hazard, that immediate relief efforts are effective and that post-disaster restoration of essential services is as rapid as possible. The plan does not provide for any hazard mitigation or prevention activities nor does it provide guidance on measures to address the economic impacts of disasters and promote economic recovery after the event. In this context, Dominica has not kept pace with the paradigm shift that has occurred in international disaster management policy over the last decade or so, from being response-oriented, to being equally concerned with prevention, mitigation and preparedness activities, which serve to reduce the vulnerability, impact and cost of response, whenever disaster does occur.62 B.5 Legal Framework NEPO operates under the “Emergency Powers (Disaster) Act” of 1987, which provides for action to be taken AFTER an emergency has occurred. There is no emergency legislation in place that gives legal authority to NEPO for the range of prevention, mitigation and preparedness activities that it must undertake BEFORE a disaster strikes. A draft Act, aimed at redressing these deficiencies has been submitted to Cabinet, but has not yet been passed in the Parliament.

60 Dominica: National Disasters and Economic Development in a Small Island State, pg.80 61 Report on Dominica’s Institutional Capacity for Comprehensive Disaster Management, Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Programme, November 2001 (referred to in Dominica as the Disaster Audit Report) 62 Report on Dominica’s Institutional Capacity for Comprehensive Disaster Management, Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Programme, November 2001, pg. 12

101

B.6 Operational Planning The National Disaster Plan concentrates mainly on procedures to be followed in the event of a hurricane, volcanic eruption and oil spill, but can be adapted to deal with other disasters that may threaten or impact on Dominica. Hazard response sub-plans exist for:

Hurricanes; Oil spills; Volcanic eruption; and Aircraft crashes.

No operational plans have been developed for other potential hazards, viz:

Fires; Floods; Landslides; Earthquakes; Droughts; Epidemic outbreaks; Civil unrest; Tsunami; Major transport (road and marine) accidents; Terrorist activity; Spillage of hazardous materials; National Security; and Economic Collapse63

At the operational level, each Government agency is responsible for drawing up its own internal disaster manual using guidelines provided in the National Disaster Plan. Most agencies have hurricane sub-plans, but refer to national plans for all other emergencies, which are not sufficiently specific or detailed for agency level action. All plans deal primarily with response activities, with no focus on the proactive aspects of disaster management. B.7 Operational Capacity

Staffing – The staffing of the ODM – one NDC and one support staff – is inadequate. There is a need to increase the capacity of the office and the Audit Report made a number of recommendations that addressed areas like number of staff required, role of staff and organisational structure of the ODM and are endorsed by this Report.

Finances – the annual budget of the ODM is EC$500,000 per year and includes

an emergency contingency fund of approximately EC$65,000. This contingency fund, if not used within the financial year, is retained by the government’s

63 Report on Dominica’s Institutional Capacity for Comprehensive Disaster Management, Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Programme, November 2001, pg. 42

102

consolidated fund.

Skill Base – The National Disaster Coordinator has received a wide range of training exposures in Disaster Management. This however, is not the case for most other personnel and there is a critical need for training in Basic Disaster Management, EOC operations and Contingency Planning for disaster managers and task force chairpersons, as a number of these persons and their representatives are required to carry out planning and NEOC duties, but have little or no training or knowledge of these functions64.

Communications and Public Awareness – There is no official Public Information

and education programme for emergencies in Dominica. Alerting and warning signals have not yet been addressed by the ODM. Limited and ad-hoc “awareness” and information segments are carried over the public media from time to time, or by the GIS and NDC whenever an emergency threatens. Some public education is also disseminated through community based disaster education training programmes run by the Red Cross, the ODM and other sectors like the fisheries department that conduct community training for the fishing community …there is a fear among some public officials that to focus the public on disaster issues, could create panic and fear65.

Early Warning Systems – No emergency warning or communications policy or

strategy has been defined for Dominica. Few resources are available to the Met office for weather warning or flood alert systems; consequently most information is taken from the Internet or from the weather channel. There is little coordination on warnings between the agencies concerned with the weather, river flooding and their effect on the environment and on agriculture.66

Discussions with the meteorological office highlighted the fact that the office had been set up to serve the needs of the aviation sector and was thus not fully geared to providing the meteorological services required by the general population, including early warning in the case of emergencies. It was also emphasised that the office was not a formal forecasting station, but was an observing station operating within the jurisdiction managed by the Barbados meteorological services. While it was possible to upgrade to a forecasting station there were cost and sustainability issues that had to be considered.

B.8 Summary of Capacity Gaps and Needs The foregoing discussion has highlighted a number of capacity gaps within the National Disaster Management framework in Dominica.

64 Report on Dominica’s Institutional Capacity for Comprehensive Disaster Management, Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Programme, November 2001, pg. 32 65 Ibid, pg. 58 66 Ibid, pg. 59

103

The most fundamental of these weaknesses is at the policy-making level, where the need for proactive disaster management is not given the level of attention and resources that is required. As a result, disaster management is characterised by a reactive, response-oriented approach with little or no attention to mitigation or prevention activities. This approach is compounded by inadequate legislative provisions and the absence of a National Disaster Management policy focusing on all phases of the Disaster Management Cycle. Disaster management is therefore relegated to an institutional location that does not provide the authority needed to perform effectively and the human and financial resources allocated are inadequate to perform even the limited response-oriented role that has been assigned. In addition, the human resources available within the wider sectoral and community context are inadequate both in terms of personnel numbers and range of skills. B.9 Climate Change Capacity Programming for Climate Change is located within the Ministry of Agriculture and the Environment, with responsibility for day-to-day activities assigned to the Environmental Coordinating Unit. Climate Change activities are assigned to a Climate Change Project Coordinator, whose activities are supported by the general support staff within the Unit. • Climate Change Programming The Unit’s activities related to climate change have been largely project-driven. Since 1999, the focus has been on the GEF-financed Initial Climate Change Enabling Activity and on the local components of the CPACC project. Under the former, the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC was completed in 2001 and a Phase II Enabling Activity aimed at assessing capacity needs in Technology Transfer, Systematic Observation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions was launched in November 2003. The CPACC project activities have ended, but one output that is especially relevant here was the development of a National Climate Change Adaptation Policy that was approved by the Cabinet in 2002. • National Climate Change Adaptation Policy The objectives of the National Climate Change Adaptation Policy include provisions “to foster the development of processes, plans and strategies to avoid, minimize, adapt or mitigate to the negative impacts of climate change on Dominica’s natural environment … on economic activities …to human settlements and infrastructure …on human health …”67 The policy is guided by seventeen (17) Policy Principles, which include:

Integrate climate change development policies, plans and projects and

67 Dominica National Climate Change Adaptation Policy

104

incorporating appropriate adaptive responses; Ensure that adaptive responses are consistent with national social, economic and

environmental development goals; Take adaptive action where State property, resources and services are likely to be

adversely affected by climate change; Ensure that society, at all levels, and in all sectors is adequately informed on

climate change issues and their implications for the nation. It also contains a listing of Policy Directives for a range of socio-economic sectors including Coastal and Marine Resources, Agriculture, Human Settlements, Forestry and Terrestrial Resources, Water Resources, Health, Tourism, and the Financial Sector. The policy is supposed to guide the work of all Governmental, Statutory, Non-governmental and Civil entities which are involved in or which may seek to become involved in addressing Climate Change issues and their impacts in Dominica68. Responsibility for its implementation has been assigned to the Ministry of Agriculture and the Environment through the Environmental Coordinating Unit. The Policy includes provision for a public review to determine its effectiveness, to be conducted on its fifth anniversary. • Progress in Implementing Adaptation Policy To date, there has been no effort made in Dominica to implement the Adaptation Policy. One of the reasons is that there has been a change of personnel within the Environment Coordinating Unit since Cabinet adopted the Policy. A new Climate Change Coordinator was appointed in March 2003. The net result is that there is very little awareness of the policy in critical sectoral ministries and no incorporation of climate change considerations in their programming to date. Senior officials of the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Fisheries and the Physical Planning Unit all indicated that they were aware of climate change but that it was not a consideration in their day-to-day planning decisions. In fact, the Physical Planning Unit indicated that the approval of structures within vulnerable coastal areas was continuing and that “other options” would have to be utilized to protect the people in these communities in the event of a natural disaster. • Resources and Capacities The work of the Climate Change project coordinator is determined by project-related activity as described above and is therefore constrained to focus on activities within the scope of the projects being implemented. There are therefore no specific resources for

68 Dominica National Climate Change Adaptation Policy

105

implementation of the policy, including for public awareness programming. B.10 Strengthening the Capacity The foregoing discussion on the existing capacities for Disaster Management and for Climate Change management indicate that Dominica has significant capacity gaps which have to be addressed if it is proactively to respond to the increase in natural and socio-economic disasters that are projected to accompany climate change. These would have to be done in a context where neither disaster management nor climate change seems to be a pressing priority of the government, and where the economic circumstances of the country places a significant constraint on the resources that are available. At the systemic level, there is need for the creation of an enabling environment within which both climate change and disaster management issues can be addressed in a proactive manner. Key actions to achieve this are:

General Pubic Awareness – This is by far the most pressing issue as perceptions of risk play a major role in determining economic actions. The general public is largely unaware of the full range of risks posed by the various hazards and the potential of climate change to exacerbate these risks and introduce new ones. They are also largely unaware that it is possible to manage many of these risks by taking proactive action that can bring benefits even if these hazards do not eventually occur.

Passage of New Disaster Management Legislation – The new legislation that has

been developed should be given statutory effect as soon as possible thus providing the basis for NEPO to initiate its mitigation efforts.

The Development of a Mitigation Culture – There is an urgent need to develop a

“mitigation culture” at all levels of the society. Specific attention has to be paid to policy makers and senior decision-makers in the public and private sector. The adoption of the full Disaster Management Cycle, based on the conduct of risk assessments, has to become a pressing priority of the NEPO, with the need to respond to climate change impacts being one of the cornerstones on which this mitigation culture is anchored.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Policy – The climate change

adaptation policy, which has already been approved by Cabinet, provides a basis for aggressive action to mainstream climate change. The major constraint here is access to the resources – human, financial and technical – to implement the required programming. This deficiency should be addressed as a matter of priority.

Specific actions are also required at the institutional level, including:

106

Strengthening of Office of Disaster Management – The Disaster Audit Report

contains a number of recommendations for strengthening the Office of Disaster Management. These include:

o Transferring it to the Prime Minister’s Ministry. o Making the position of National Disaster Coordinator a more senior

position within the public service. o Increasing the staff of the office, and restructuring it so that it can

effectively carry out its programming, training and public awareness functions in a proactive way.

The implementation of these recommendations is central to Dominica’s ability to improve its disaster management systems and is endorsed by this Report.

Establishment of Early Warning Systems – The role and rationale of the

meteorological office should be reviewed with a view to developing a service that can serve the meteorological needs of the country, including those of the aviation sector as well as the emergency sector. This can be achieved by combining its activities with that of other meteorological operations in the country e.g. agro-met and hydro-met.

At the individual level, there is the need for the development of the skill base of the technical personnel in both the climate change and disaster management fields. B.11 Specific Recommendations It is therefore recommended that Dominica’s capacity to manage disaster risk in general, and the increased disaster risk posed by climate change be enhanced by the following actions:

1. Restructure and strengthen the Office of Disaster Management as recommended in the Disaster Audit Report.

2. Appointment of a full-time Climate Change Program Officer within the

Environmental Coordinating Unit, with the responsibility for providing technical support to the different sectors in the implementation of the Adaptation Policy. This will include specific outreach activities targeted at each affected sector, the design of adaptation activities and the sourcing of funding for implementation, where possible. It should also address the development of the individual capacities within these sectoral entities to assess the potential impact of climate change and to design response strategies appropriate for their sectors.

3. Adoption by NEPO of the full Disaster Management Cycle, based on a risk

assessment approach, as the basic philosophy guiding Disaster Management in

107

Dominica and restructuring of their operations to effect this change. 4. Passage of the new legislation that would provide the legal basis for proactive

disaster management.

5. Initiation of sustained public awareness programming on disaster management done jointly with the Climate Change process.

6. Development of a National Disaster Mitigation Policy, which will be aggressively

implemented by the revised ODM. The need for adequate risk assessment, as the basis for the development of adaptation/disaster mitigation plans, must be central to these discussions.

7. Initiation of Vulnerability Analyses and Hazard Mapping. These can be started

with an analysis and documentation of vulnerabilities based on historical experience and then expanded to other areas as the skills, technologies and resources become available. The latter is important, because the effects of climate change will mean that past experiences cannot be taken as a guide for the future.

8. Initiation of training programmes for persons involved in Disaster Management at

all levels – including the district and community level committees.

9. Assessment of the requirements for upgrading the current meteorological systems to provide the type of early warning systems required to coping with the projected impacts of climate change.

The implementation of the above recommendations would require a commitment of financial and technical resources. This would be difficult in Dominica’s context given the financial and economic crisis that the country is experiencing. However, the option of doing nothing could be even more costly in the longer run.

108

APPENDIX C

BARBADOS COUNTRY REPORT

C. OVERVIEW The Third Assessment report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated that the process of a changing climate is already underway. The small island states have been identified as countries that are most at risk with a changing climate. While the emissions of greenhouse gases from small island states are minuscule, the emissions from developed countries continue to increase and thus the countries most at risk to the environmental and socio economic impacts of climate change are not responsible for the problem. The changes in the global climate will cause sea level rise, and changes in weather patterns which could have serious consequences for small island states such as Barbados. The possibility of increased drought, and flooding, as well as the possibility of an increase in the number of extreme weather events is of critical concern. This assessment aims to build on previous work which has been done in Barbados and the region on adaptation to climate change and disaster risk assessment by conducting needs assessment aimed at identifying gaps in capacities related to adaptation to disaster risk. This assessment will also identify opportunities for cooperation and collaboration within the region C.1 OVERVIEW OF BARBADOS Barbados is a typical small island developing state and is the most easterly of the islands in the Caribbean, located at 13 degrees north, 59 degrees west; approximately 100 miles from the nearest landmass, against prevailing winds and currents. The island is (34) km long and (23) km wide with a total land area of approximately (432) square kilometres and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 167, 000 square kilometres. The population of Barbados is currently estimated at 268,792 and with a population density of approximately 622 per/ Km2 Barbados is also the 16th most densely populated nation on earth. The climate is classified as dry sub-humid with temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees celsius. There is a distinct dry season from December to May and a wet season from June to November. The average annual rainfall is about 50 inches (1254 mm) in the lower elevations and about 66 inches (1650 mm) in higher elevations. Most locations receive between 56 and 60 inches of rainfall annualy. The total annual water resources of Barbados are estimated at 59.0 million m3 per year in an average year and approximately 45 m3 million per year in a 1:15 year drought. (Klohn Crippen, 1997). There is little surface water on the island, with small surface streams found primarily in the Scotland District region of the island. The island is therefore almost completely dependent on

109

groundwater abstracted from the aquifer underlying the island. The island is divided into two distinct geologic regions. Eighty-six percent of the island is made up of a karst landscape of deeply fractured and gullied limestone laid down in a series of limestone terraces, deeply incised by numerous gullies and underlain by a complex underground cave system. The remaining land area is comprised of the sedimentary deposits of the Scotland Series. These layers are highly folded and faulted and are very susceptible to erosion. Large scale land slippage is common in the Scotland District. Inspite of the above, the island is relatively flat, with the highest point being Mount Hillaby at 336m (1, 104 ft). The 92 km long Barbados coastline has an interesting diversity of land and seascapes and is a unique and irreplaceable asset. The Atlantic coast faces the trade winds. It is continually exposed to high wave energy and contains the most rugged elements of the coastal landscape. Reef development is minimal offshore but there are extensive areas of limestone pavement dominated by sea fans. In contrast, the Caribbean coast, whilst backed by limestone cliffs has a very different aspect. The protected bays and shoreline were the preferred sites for trade, commerce and early settlement. More recently, the sandy beaches, fringing reefs and relatively calm waters have been the focal points for the important tourism industry. Industrial facilities are located along or near to parts of this shoreline.

Figure C.1 Island of Barbados

110

The economy of Barbados is based primarily of tourism and financial services. Traditionally, sugar has been the major earner of foreign exchange for Barbados. However, in the eighties, the tourism industry became the dominant force in the Barbadian economy and sugar, while declining, was still responsible for substantial foreign exchange earnings and contributions to GDP. In Barbados, the tourism industry represents just over 50% of foreign exchange earnings since 1993, and has employed as much as 10% percent of the labour force. The per capita GDP for 2001 was estimated at $BDS 15,700 (US$ 7,850) for the year 2001, a decrease of $300 or 1.9% over 2000. This compares unfavourably to an increase of $500 or 5.4% in 2000 over 1999 (Barbados Economic and Social Report 2001). Figure 2 below show the changes in GDP from 1996-2001.

Barbados Gross Domestic Product (1996-2001) ($BDSM)

800

850

900

950

1000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

GDP

Figure C.2 Barbados GDP While the economy of Barbados has been generally improving, it must be noted that Barbados has a highly open economy as measured by the ratio of exports and imports to GDP and therefore is vulnerable economically to change in the international economic environment. The main foriegn exchange earners are service industries in the form of tourism and international business. The performance of export manufacturing and sugar also contribute to the buoyancy of the economy. This means Barbados, like other SIDS, is relatively more exposed to shocks in the international economy than larger states in Latin America. Barbados has a fixed exchange rate regime tied at BDS $2/US$1. As a result, the central bank has to constantly defend this exchange rate parity by stocking an adequate amount of foriegn exchange reserves cover in the bank. This means that the economy is a foriegn exchange contrained economy and that the external account of the balance of payments is the most critical constraint and policy variable (Mc.Caskie 2003).

111

C.2 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES As with all small island developing states, Barbados is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Third Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC TAR) has highlighred that many small island developing states are already experiencing the effects of current large interannual variations in oceanic and atomosphere conditions. It has also been noted that while there will be regional variations, it is projected that the sea level will rise as much as 5mm yr-1. This could cause increased erosion and coastal flooding, and these potential coastal changes will have a direct impact on the economy as tourism is the main economic earner in Barbados. With the increased warming of the oceans, coral reefs could continue to be adversly affected. Already coral reefs are under stress from anthropogenic sources of pollution, causiing the degradation of the reef. Widespread bleaching is also occuring. The availiability of freshwater resources is of critical concern. Barbados, like many other small islands has few natural rivers and streams, and relies heavily on rain water for its freshwater resources. Sea level rise has the potential to cause salt water inundation into the freshwater lens. In addition the IPCC TAR has noted that annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease, thus there will be concerns of potential drought as well as concerns relating to agriculture and human health. While there is some uncertainty as to whether there will be increases in the number of extreme weather events and tropical cyclones, it is clear that climate change will excerbate the impacts of extreme weather events. There have been some investigations as to the potential impact of climate change in Barbados. Through the CPACC project, there was an initial coastal vunerability analysis of the possible impacts of a changing climate. There was also an identification of some initial adaptation options. An investigation occured as to the possible effects of 0.2m, 0.5m and 1m sea level rise in certain areas in Barbados, and it was found that there would be:

(i) Beach loss of up 30m in some areas, with 1m sea level rise. (ii) 51,100 people at risk on West Coast, with respect to water due to possible

inundation of fresh water aquifers. All the luxurious hotels are located on the west coast.

(iii) Properties valued at BDS$142million at Rockley, BDS$133 million at Spring Garden, and BDS$197 million at Speightstown, at risk due to sea level rise

(iv) 75% of business think that government should protect the shoreline with regards to sea level rise (Moore et al 2002).

The vulnerability assessment for Barbados, while limited in scope, highlighted the fact

112

that Barbados is extremely vunerable to the changes in the climate. Further work is needed however, for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of the IPCC projections (see table C.1) on the water supply on Barbados. What is clear is that the amount of freshwater available will decrease dramatically under these conditions, and Barbados will have to examine alternatives (e.g., expansion of the desalination sector) in order to provide enough freshwater for local use. Table C.1 Ensemble of mean climate change scenarios for small island states in

the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean for 2050 and 2080 from GCM

Annual Mean Temperature Change oC

Annual Mean Precipitation Change (%)

2050 2080 2050 2080

GHG GHG+A

GHG GHG+A

GHG GHG+A

GHG GHG+A

Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean

2.03 (+/-0.43)

1.71 (+/-0.25)

3.06 (+/-0.84)

2.64 (+/-0.61)

-5.2 (+/-11.9)

-1.3 (+/-7.8

-6.8 (+/-15.8)

-0.7(+/-12.3)

Adapted from IPCC 2001 With regards to tropical cyclone activity, the IPCC has concluded in the Third Assessment that there is no consensus regarding the conclusions of studies related to the behaviour of tropical cyclones in a warmer world. In fact, working group one of the IPCC concluded that the current information is insufficient to assess recent trends and confidence in understanding models and inadequate to make firm projections. Some studies have found no significant change in the hurricane frequency or geographical extent for the North Atlantic Ocean. Some individual studies have noted the possibility of a 10-20% increase in intensity of tropical cyclones under enhanced carbon dioxide conditions. Headley (2000) noted that in the past twelve years, there has been an unprecedented increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes in the Caribbean/Atlantic region (Table C.2). According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, 1999), the 1999 season had twelve named tropical cyclones - four tropical storms and eight hurricanes. This compares with the long-term average of 10 named tropical cyclones - 4 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes. Five of these hurricanes were major, all five reached category 4 status (minimum wind speed 131 mph). This is the highest number of category 4 hurricanes in a single season since records began in 1886. The total activity over the years 1995 - 1999 of 41 hurricanes and 20 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale) is also unprecedented. During the 35

113

days between August 19 and September 23, 1998, ten cyclones of different intensities hit land in the Caribbean. On September 25, four hurricanes were active at the same time, a rare event that happened for the first time in the century. While the evidence is not conclusive with regards to the increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes, what is clear is that changes in climate will compound the effects of tropical cyclones. Barbados has started to implement a number of adaptation options. This has mainly occurred as a result of activities related to coastal zone management where climate change considerations have been incorporated with regards to the implementation of set backs and zones for coastal zone buildings, beach nourishment and the construction of groynes, revetments and breakwaters. The coastal zone management unit of the Ministry of Housing Lands and Environment is involved in a number of projects that are designed to protect the coast. With the potential reduction of available water resources in Barbados as a result of a changing climate, a number of potential adaptation options have been considered. These include improved leak detection and control to reduce unaccounted for water, and improved water conservation and water conservation devices. Consumers should be encouraged to utilise water conservation devices such as low water use toilets, however, a major hindrance to the use of many water conservation devices is the price. Government should give incentives for the purchase of low water use and fittings and impose an environmental tariff on high use fittings. There has been the construction of a desalination plant, which is being used to desalinate brackish water to augment the current water supply. Public education is also seen as a critical adaptation activity with regards to adaptation to climate change with respect to water supplies (Barbados National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2001). Table C.2 Category 4&5 Hurricanes in Atlantic/Caribbean Region Year

Name

Maximum Sustained

Wind Speed

Central Pressure

(Millibars)

Category,

Saffir-Simpson

Scale

Selected Damage Estimate

(US$)

knots

mph

kph

1988

Gilbert

160

184

296

888

5

5.0 billion 1988

Hélène

125

144

232

938

4

1988

Joan

125

144

232

932

4

1989

Gabrielle

125

144

232

941

4

1989

Hugo

140

161

259

918

5

3.0 billion

114

Year

Name

Maximum Sustained

Wind Speed

Central Pressure

Category, Saffir-

Simpson

Selected Damage Estimate

knots

mph

kph

1992

Andrew

135

155

249

922

5

26.0 billion

1995

Felix

120

138

222

929

4

1995

Luis

130

150

241

940

4

1995

Opal

130

150

241

919

4

1996

Edouard

125

144

232

933

4

1996

Hortense

120

138

222

935

4

1998

Georges

135

155

249

937

5

0.86 billion

1998

Mitch

155

178

286

905

5

5.9 billion 1999

Bret

122

140

225

944

4

1999

Cindy

122

140

225

944

4

1999

Floyd

134

154

248

927

4

0.5 billion

1999

Gert

131

150

241

930

4

1999

Lenny

135

155

241

933

4

1.0 billion 200

2000

Isaac

120

138

222

943

4

2000

Keith

120

138

222

941

4

2001

Iris

125

144

232

948

4

2001

Michelle

120

138

222

934

2002

Lili

125

144

232

940

4

2003

Fabian

125

144

232

939

4

2003

Isabel

140

161

259

920

4

Through component 4 of the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Projects Barbados has identified a number of preliminary adaptation options and compiled a preliminary policy and strategy for adapting to climate change and reducing vulnerability in various sectors. Table 3 below highlights the various sectors and the possible management interventions and management options which could occur to reduce vulnerability in a changing climate.

115

Table C.3 Selected Adaptation options identified during cross-sectoral consultation during CPACC project (adapted from Barbados National Communications

Sector Climate

Element Likely Impact/Issue

Possible Intervention/Managem

Option

Agriculture

Less

Rain/Drought

o Low Crop Yields

o Reduction in genetic diversity

o Reduced feed for livestock

o Concentration of pollutants

(fertilizer etc.)

o Increases in numbers of

generations of pests

o Wind-induced soil erosion,

with fertility reductions

o Increased susceptibility of

stressed plants to pest and

disease

o Increased irrigation costs

o Increased risk of fire damage

and attendant change in

microbial activity in soil.

o Altered soil fertility and

chemistry

o Research (e.g. Breeding

programmes; pest and soil

studies)

o Inventory and monitoring of

resources

o Shorter rotation of crops to

confound multi-generations o

pests

o Wider applicability of

Integrated Pest Management

o Exploration of options for

wastewater use

o Integrated water resource

management

o Ex situ conservation

o Development of Policy on Foo

Security

o Crop Diversification

116

Sector Climate



Option

o Increased incidence of crop

failure in conditions of drought

o Reduced crop quality

Increase in temperature

o Heat stress and losses of

poultry, livestock

o Reduction in egg and dairy

production

o Increased water demands from

plants and animals

o Salinisation of soils resulting

from irrigation

o Heat stress of workers

o Modification of husbandry

methods (e.g. Ventilation of

coops)

o Use of salt tolerant/drought

resistant crops

o Crop diversification

o Selective breeding of livestoc

o Protective clothing, and flexib

working hours for workers

Coastal Marine

Resources

Less Rain/Drought

o Reduced influx of nutrients

into nearshore

o Increased nearshore salinity

o Enhancement of resilience of

natural systems through

improved pollution control

117

Sector Climate



Option

Increased Flooding

o Increased sediment load to

nearshore (reef stress)

o Increased eutrophication

o Increased environmental

pollutants in nearshore

o Decreased salinity in embayed

areas

o Enhancement of resilience of

natural systems through

improved pollution control

o Implementation of

comprehensive watershed

management system

o Integrated Pest Management

o Improved Coastal resource

management planning

o Upgrading of drainage system

Increase in

temperature

o Increased heat-induced

mortality, particularly for

shallow-water species (e.g.

Corals)

o Sea level rise results in coastal

inundation, with loss/increase

of some coastal ecosystems.

o Research and monitoring

o Natural system replenishmen

o Coastal defence structures

Water Resources

Less Rain/Drought

o Reduced water availability

o Saline intrusion at coast

o Integrated water resource

management

o Leakage control of mains

o Desalination and other

augmentation techniques

118

Sector Climate



Option

Increase in

Temperature

o Increase in evapotranspiration

and reduced aquifer recharge

o Sea level rise results in

salinisation of coastal wells

o Relocation and redesign of w

Human Settlement/

Infrastructure

Less Rain/Drought

o Increase in demand for water

o Adverse effect on food supply

o Integrated Water Resource

Management

o Public awareness

o Research and monitoring

Increased flooding

o Structural damage

o Increased insurance costs

o Incorporation of climate chan

considerations into Building

Codes and coastal planning

Increase in

Temperature

o Increased dependence on air

conditioning etc.

o Sea level rise resulting in

erosion, inundation etc.

o Improved building design to

promote increased natural

ventilation

o Enhanced sea defences

o Relocation of critical

infrastructure where possible

o Enforcement of building set

backs, and restriction of

development in vulnerable

areas.

119

The draft adaptation policy and strategy for planning and adapting to climate change for Barbados has a number of policy principles which include:

• Continue to improve the institutional, administrative and legislative environment which engenders/ supports the effective implementation of climate change adaptation activities;

• Continue to promote and support research and information gathering at the

national, regional and international levels on aspects of climate and its impacts as they pertain to Barbados;

• Ensure that adequate planning (physical, socio-economic etc.) is undertaken on a

continual basis to address the impacts of climate change. Such planning should be undertaken, not in isolation but in the wider context of sustainable development;

• Endeavour to, the extent possible and necessary, develop national, human and

institutional capacity in all aspects of climate change research, response, planning, disaster response management, etc.

In addition, in order to address the impacts of climate change more effectively, the draft adaptation policy comprehensively addresses a variety of sectors and has included policy directives for specific sectors such as the coastal and marine resources sector, terrestrial resources and terrestrial biodiversity, agriculture, human settlements, water resources, tourism, human health and the financial sector. Of note are the proposed directives as they relate to human settlements, which identify the possible damage which could occur as a result of a climate induced extreme event, and suggests the following:

1. Develop and implement a plan (Disaster Management Plan) for the relocation or protection of settlements and infrastructure at risk from the effects of climate change, especially those settlements that are in the ‘high and repeated risk’ areas;

2. Ensure the incorporation of climate change considerations into existing or

proposed national emergency plans;

3. Promote the development and enforcement of a building code which addresses climate change considerations including hurricane resistance; energy/heat efficiency and flood resistance;

4. Ensure that national infrastructure standards (jetties, roads, bridges. etc.) are

120

adequate to withstand the effects of climate change (e.g. building setbacks, building designs and restrictions for development in vulnerable areas).

5. Integrate Climate Change considerations into the physical planning process

including the implementation of Environmental Impact Assessment requirements;

6. Implement fiscal measures where appropriate to encourage the adoption of building codes and other relevant measures;

7. Foster increased public awareness of climate change and its effects on human

settlements, making every effort to empower society to conserve water and food supplies, recycling and reusing materials and in placing a high value on resources; (Barbados’ Policy and Strategy for Planning and Adapting to Climate Change 2002)

Thus the incorporation of natural disasters in adaptation concerns in Barbados is already underway; however, Barbados requires the necessary capacity building and institutional strengthening in order to ensure that the adaptation policy is implemented effectively. C.3 DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN BARBADOS Barbados is prone to a number of natural and man-made hazards. Natural hazards include hurricanes, tropical storms, storm surge, floods, tsunamis and drought. The Central Emergency Relief Organization (CERO) in Barbados is responsible for the disaster management and preparedness in Barbados. CERO has undergone many transformations during its life. Its beginning dates back to the 1940's when the Organisation for Hurricane Relief was formed, and thus CERO has considerable experience in terms of disaster management. Over the years the Organisation has been forced to expand the scope of its responsibility to respond to other emergencies such as flooding and landslides, as well as man-made disasters such as oil spills, industrial fires, aircraft crashes and large scale public service vehicle accidents. Central Emergency Relief Organisation is responsible for promoting and maintaining a comprehensive National Disaster Programme. CERO is also responsible for educating all citizens about the various elements of disaster management, creating appropriate mechanisms which will promote and advance disaster management activities at all levels of the society, promoting and institutionalising the practice of appropriate preventative and mitigation measures for all possible hazards, and promoting the development and maintenance of effective warning, response and recovery plans for all sectors of the society. The organization is currently composed of a national disaster committee, an emergency operations centre, emergency management teams and district emergency organisations. The national disaster committee duties include: to ensure the formulation of agency and sectoral disaster plans, to review and approve national disaster

121

preparedness and response plans for all hazards, to conduct simulations and drills in order to test and upgrade disaster preparedness plans and to promote the study, control and mitigation of disasters and the evaluation of operational research on emergency situations. The national disaster committee is composed of various senior public sector and private sector officials, including the Barbados Red Cross, the chief town planner, the Barbados Chamber of Commerce and the Director of the Coastal Zone Management Unit. The Emergency Operations Centre is the primary location from which the mobilisation and coordination of responses and resources is carried out in the event of a major incident. This centre is located at the CERO Secretariat. The district emergency organisations play a key role in disaster management in Barbados. There are 29 district emergency organisations in Barbados which are identified by the same boundaries as the political constituencies. The function of the disaster emergency organisation is to provide a forum for education and training at the community level, develop a mechanism for initial emergency response, develop a mechanism to facilitate the conduct of damage assessment, needs analysis and relief distribution. The disaster emergency organisations are voluntary organisations which are critical to disaster management in Barbados, by providing the links to the community, thus providing the links to the “ground level” in terms of community preparedness, awareness and response to natural disasters. In the event of a natural disaster such as a tropical cyclone, CERO would be responsible advising government with regards to actions which would be required such as closing government offices, and mobilising the emergency response teams. Decisions taken by CERO, however, are not done in isolation; the Barbados Meteorological Service has a key role to play. The service is responsible for providing forecasts with regard to weather events and informing the general public and with various warnings with regards to possible extreme events. The Barbados Met Service provides the relevant information to CERO on the possible severity of an extreme weather event. CERO in turn would take appropriate action. During the period 1955-2000, there have been 57 severe wind and rainfall events that have affected Barbados. These have ranged from flooding effects from a tropical wave to severe damage from a hurricane. While Hurricane Janet (1955) is generally recognized as the last ‘major’ disaster to have affected the island, significant economic losses have resulted from the impacts of hazards since that year. In many instances, however, there has not been sufficient analysis in order to get an effective estimate of the amount of damage which has occurred. Table C.4 below shows the impact of selected extreme events during the period 1955-2000.

122

Table C.4 Impacts of Select Rainfall and Wind Events 1955 – 2000 Year Type of Event Brief description of damage Damage

Estimate BD$ 1955 Hurricane Janet (not

a direct strike) 35 dead; 8,100 small dwelling houses damaged; 20,000 displaced

Not available

1980 Hurricane Allen (not a direct strike)

67 houses destroyed and 698 damaged; 93 boats damaged and 29 destroyed; 705 houses damaged or destroyed; damage to agricultural sector

1.32M (housing) 2.0 M (poultry) 50K (vegetable crops)

1984 Flood 82 households suffered loss or damage 807 K 1986 TS Danielle 12 households suffered loss or damage 55.8 K 1987 TS Emily 46 houses damaged or destroyed; 1

boat destroyed 600k

1995 Tropical Wave 41 buildings affected, 16 destroyed, 75 persons displaced;

4.8M

1995 TS Iris 22 houses damaged; 8 fishing boats damaged or destroyed; several bridges and roads washed away or made impassable

200K

1995 TS Marilyn 26 houses and 1 boat damaged 500k 1997 Tropical wave 27 homes, 2 commercial building & 1

school damaged; 24 persons dislocated; utility services disrupted

247k

1999 Microburst 6 households destroyed or damaged 110k In more recent time, however, Barbados’s vulnerability to natural disasters has been highlighted even further by the effect of tropical storm Lily in 2002. An estimated BD$1.28 Million dollars in damage was suffered by the housing sector with six hundred and nineteen (619) houses being affected across all eleven parishes (CERO, 2003). In addition, significant damage was suffered by the agricultural sector particularly the poultry industry (CERO, 2003). Since this system at its time of impact contained tropical storm force winds, these statistics not only reveal information about the vulnerability of Barbados to the wind hazard in particular, but also raises questions about possible damage from stronger systems. What is clear from table C.4 is that it does not take a full-scale hurricane to cause significant damage, nor does it take a direct hit in order for significant damage to occur. C. 4 PLANNED AND ONGOING PROJECTS The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency has been one of the main agencies involved in disaster management in the region since its establishment in 1991, and thus

123

has been involved in a number of projects, which have aided in capacity development with regards to managing risk and vulnerability reduction as it relates to natural disaster. Currently, CDERA is implementing the following projects in the Caribbean, which relate to vulnerability reduction and risk management: (i) Caribbean Disaster Management Project The overall goal of this project is to mitigate damages in CDERA member states particularly for the flood hazard. The emphasis on this hazard is in keeping with the findings of the Status of Disaster Preparedness in CDERA Participating States conducted in May 2001, which identified floods as the most common event - occurring in 90 % of CDERA Participating States in the last five years, however, in contrast, only 25% of these countries have any plans in place to guide disaster management activities for this hazard. The project intends to train through model works, professionals for hazard mapping and disaster management planning in CDERA, and equip them to prepare hazard maps and disaster management plans for hazard vulnerable areas in the CDERA community. The project is being implemented in Barbados, St. Vincent & the Grenadines and Trinidad & Tobago, and will benefit from formal collaboration being established with regional institutions such as the University of the West Indies (UWI) and the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH). The outputs of the project will be shared with all participating states for adoption and adaptation where appropriate. The project will aid in the preparation of flood hazard maps for the model sites, and prepare a manual for flood hazard mapping. There will also be an assessment of the current status of Community Disaster Management, the preparation of Community Disaster Management plans incorporating the hazard maps prepared by the model project, and the preparation of a manual for Community Disaster Management planning as it relates to flooding (ii) Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Programme (CHAMP) The Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Programme (CHAMP) is a three-year project funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), implemented by the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) and executed by the Organization of American States (OAS). The project is seeking to enhance regional capacity to reduce vulnerability to the effects of natural hazards. This will be done through the development of national hazard mitigation policies and implementation programmes, the promotion of the wider use of hazard information in development decisions and the strengthening of safe building practices, building training and certification. CHAMP activities will be carried out in the four pilot states of Belize, British Virgin Islands, Grenada and St. Lucia. The project is worth $CDN 2.3 million. While Barbados is not a pilot country for this activity, Barbados will benefit by examining lessons learned from the project.

124

(iii) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) The MACC project is the main follow on project from the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Project, otherwise known as CPACC, which concluded in December 2001. The MACC project is being financed mainly by the Global Environment Facility. The objective of the project is to follow on from CPACC creating capacity in CARICOM countries to implement adaptation efforts so as to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change. The key components of the project include expanding and strengthening the technical information and capacity to assess vulnerability and risks associated withglobal climate change. The project will also aid countries in identifying policies to reduce vulnerability and support specific adaptation measures and the mainstreaming of adaptation measures into national planning (iv) Climate Change Enabling Activity (National Communications) This activity was designed in order to help Barbados in fulfilling its responsibilities under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. While the project included the preparation of a national greenhouse gas inventory, there were some initial vulnerability and adaptation assessments and some training and capacity building for local experts with regards to vulnerability and adaptation. Barbados is currently in phase two of their initial national communications project, and under this phase Barbados will continue to raise awareness as it relates to climate change adaptation. The project is worth around US$289,000. C.5 CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS AND INSTITUTIONAL NEEDS The impact of tropical storm lily in Barbados raised a number of key issues. The first issue relates to public awareness and education, and overall disaster preparedness. As Barbados has not suffered a major hit by a hurricane since Janet in 1955, there seems to be a prevailing ambivalence within the public towards natural disasters. While there are some public awareness activities, it is clear there is a need for more public awareness programmes as it relates to extreme events so as to reduce risk and vulnerability. There is thus a key role for public awareness as a disaster preparedness and vulnerability reduction activity. Best practices in the region with regards to public awareness should be documented and replicated. The regional climate change centre or other regional organisations such CDERA could be responsible for providing on going regional and national public awareness strategies so as to find the best strategies which can be used effectively, not only in Barbados but throughout the region. There are capacity requirements at levels in many institutions in Barbados. There is a need, for example, to sensitise all sectors of government to the issue of climate change and vulnerability reduction. Through the Central Emergency Response Organisation (CERO) in Barbados, emergency plans are quite well developed, however, Tropical Storm Lily demonstrated that there is a need for comprehensive vulnerability and hazard maps to allow for more effective response to any potential disaster. Moreso, the issue of vulnerability and hazard mapping needs to be incorporated into the development planning process.

125

CERO itself is a coordinating agency for emergency and disaster response in Barbados, and is responsible for the local execution and implementation of the Caribbean Disaster Management Project and the Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Programme (CHAMP). CERO is also involved in a Flood Mitigation pilot project with CDERA, which is focusing on producing hazard maps for the area of Speightstown, which traditionally floods. This project, which is being implemented through CDERA, will work with the community with regards to early warning systems. There is a need for effective early warning systems with regards to disaster management throughout Barbados. CERO is also involved in an emergency response search project with CDERA which is examining responses to landslide, and collapsing structures. Currently, CERO has a standing committee which is cross-sectoral to deal with disaster mitigation, and the development of a Hazard Mitigation Plan which is part of the overall Caribbean Mitigation Programme. The Government of Barbados is also currently involved in constructing a comprehensive disaster management plan, involving all sectors and stakeholders. This will involve new legislation and the changing of CERO to the Barbados Emergency Management Agency. The proposed disaster management legislation will put forward the basis for the development of policies for the whole disaster cycle, the delineation of, and special policies for, vulnerable areas. The need to incorporate hazard and vulnerability mapping into the development and planning process needs to be carefully examined in the region. Through CDERA or the regional climate change centre, this issue needs to be effectively handled so the governments will consider vulnerabilities to extreme events and climate change in their planning process. Many governments in the regions have effected legislation with regards to Environmental Impact Assessment; however, there is a need to see how hazard mapping can be incorporated into the planning process effectively. While CERO in Barbados is effective, it is clear there is a need for more capacity development within the organisation and more financial resources to be allocated to the institution responsible for co-ordinating disaster management in Barbados. CERO is dependant on volunteers at the community level to aid it in its efforts with regards to disaster preparedness and mitigation, thus the need for community level management plans cannot be over emphasized. Community disaster management programmes with a view to empowering communities to cope with the impacts of hazards, with particular attention paid to the poor,will need to be developed. It was noticeable in Tropical Storm Lily that those most affected were those who were the poorest in the community. Such community disaster management plans and programmes could be coordinated at the regional level, with pilot schemes developed so as to find the best practice. The issue of building codes also needs to be addressed not only in Barbados, but also throughout the region. There is, in some areas, a political reluctance to look at building

126

codes, however, the application of a building code can reduce vulnerability and such an activity can be examined on a regional level. The building code could be linked to insurance incentives thus providing encouragement for application of the code. Currently, in Barbados, there is a need for many of the schools which function as hurricane shelters to be retrofitted; in addition, there is a need for a vulnerability survey with regards to the housing stock and engineering assessment of and shelters in keys schools key vulnerability areas. The institution of CERO also seriously lacks enough professional personnel in order to carry out its necessary functions The National Meteorological Service of Barbados, not unlike other similar operations worldwide, represents an important part of the national infrastructure that meets the vital needs of this country. Funded and operated by the government, it has responsibility for the installation, operation and maintenance of basic observing, telecommunication, data processing, forecasting and archival systems on which depend the availability and quality of meteorological and related data and products. Among the most important national goals served by its operations are: safety of life and protection of property, reduction of the impacts of meteorological and hydrological disasters and national sustainable development. The main issues facing the met office include the lack of funding for modernization to enhance the provision of services to sectors such as agriculture and tourism. In addition, the met office has a critical role to play in environmental protection and disaster preparedness and a lack of resources affects the capacity of the met office to carry out the required functions The met office in Barbados is small and underdeveloped and has been unable to keep pace with the latest technological and other changes necessary to provide effective meteorological services demanded and expected by the national community. Budgetary constraints and allocations make it difficult to engage in effective long-term planning and growth. The most significant single factor in determining the future efficiency and effectiveness of the met office, and its value to the national community, is the quality and variety of the continuing education and training provided for its staff. The pace of change of information technology, communications, instrumentation and modern forecasting techniques, requires the continuing development and delivery of relevant training for all categories of staff. In addition, there is a need for clear legal instruments to assist in the modernization of the met office and to ensure that its mandate and role is clearly defined. The Met office in Barbados has now begun the process of obtaining a Doppler radar, so that it can improve forecasting and provide better guidance in general as to the possible impacts of any upcoming extreme event. There is still a need for the met service to improve its local monitoring and data collection so that better advice can be given with regards to localised flooding and also to give a better understanding to any short/ mid/long term changes which may be occurring in the climate. The building of capacity

127

to enhance our ability to apply meteorology to weather- and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water resources, environmental protection, leisure and tourism and disaster management sectors is crucial to the derivation of enhanced economic benefits from the application of meteorological data and information. An increasing important influence on the future role and operation of the met office will be its working relationships with the evolving meteorological private sector, the media and academia. There exists an urgent need to build capacity to effectively engage in research, both for the advancement of knowledge and in support of routine operations and services, and work collaboratively with other national, regional and international entities. Currently in Barbados, there is no specific drought management plan, nor is there any forecasting into drought prediction. The capacity of the Barbados Water Authority and the Met Service needs to be effectively enhanced in order to facilitate these activities. Considerable more work also needs to go into flood risk modelling and the modelling of high rainfall events. Currently there is too few weather gauges located in the island and there is a need to increase the number. There is thus a need to improve the overall data collection in key areas especially as it relates to water resources. Water resource management techniques also need to be improved. Currently there is a process metering in Barbados which is aiding in reducing water consumption but there is a need to build capacity and examine options as it relates to water conservation given that Barbados is prone to drought. Consideration should be given to water recycling techniques which would allow the reuse of treated grey water for non-potable purposes. Barbados has advanced considerably with regards to coastal zone management, but there still is a need for further work and capacity building on storm surge modelling, the identification of vulnerable areas to sea level rise, and the placing of appropriate setbacks. Public awareness and education, however, is a key element which needs to be improved on in order for there to be an improvement in the vulnerability reduction capacity in Barbados. Through the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change public awareness and education were identified as key elements in vulnerability reduction or adaptation processes. C.6 CONCLUSIONS Barbados has made considerable progress in building capacity and strengthening institutions with regards to risk management and vulnerability reduction. However, there is still considerable progress which needs to occur to improve the overall capacity with respect to risk management. While there has been progress within CERO with the eventually evolution to the Barbados Emergency Agency, and the proposed development of disaster legislation, there is still a requirement for staffing to ensure that the institution will function effectively. There is still the requirement for improvement in housing stock, and the application of a building code. The current hurricane shelters also need to be upgraded.

128

Considerable capacity and institutional strengthening needs to occur with respect to met offices and the authorities that have responsibility for water management. There is a need to improve the capacity and modernise the relevant offices. The met service requires considerable training and equipment, more so a technological uplift is needed so that the met office can expand its services. Public education and awareness will be a key element for Barbados, and the region, in the area of risk management and vulnerability reduction. If the activities of individuals do not change, then Barbados and the region will not be able to improve their ability to reduce vulnerability. There are many areas of weakness at the local level, and there is thus a need to improve and to continue to strengthen organizations such as the regional climate change centre, and CDERA, to provide countries such as Barbados with the technical assistance which is required so they can effectively reduce vulnerabilities.

129

REFERENCES Economic Planning Division, Ministry of Economic Development (2002) Barbados Economic and Social Report 2001 Government of Barbados Headley (2000). Comparative Costs of Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy in Barbados. Centre for Resources Management and Environmental Studies IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001- Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press Klohn and Crippen (1997) Water Quality Analysis, Water Resources Management and Water Loss Studies. Government of Barbados McCaskie (2003) “Economic Vulnerability”-in Barbados National Report on The Implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action (BPOA) of Small Island Developed States. Ministry of Housing, Lands and Environment Moore 2002 (ed) Barbados Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment-Draft. Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Moore, Wellington (2001) Barbados’ First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Riley (2003).Vulnerability to Natural and Technological Disasters in Barbados National Report on The Implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action (BPOA) of Small Island Developed States. Ministry of Housing, Lands and Environment

130

APPENDIX D

COUNTRY REPORT - GRENADA D. OVERVIEW Grenada consists of the islands of Grenada, Carriacou and Petit Martinique, and is located at 11° 58′ North latitude and 61° 20′ West longitude and lies between Trinidad and Tobago to the south, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the north. It is the southernmost of the Windward Islands. The country is internationally renowned as the Isle of Spice and as the home of the world famous Grand Anse beach. The Island of Grenada is 34 km (21 miles) long and 18km (12 miles) wide and the three islands taken together have a land area of 345 sq. km (133 sq. miles). The country is characterised by mountainous terrain ringed by extensive coral reefs. The highest point, Mt. St. Catherine, lies 833 meters above sea level. The other main peaks are Fedon Camp, 767 meters; Mount Qua Qua, 735 meters; Mount Lebanon 715 meters, and Mount Sinai 701 meters. The highest points in Carriacou, High North and Mount Carre, are both 291 meters. The mountains rise steeply from the West Coast and descend more gently to the East Coast. Carriacou is characterized by a north to southwest mountain ridge. On the islands of Grenada and Carriacou, approximately 77% and over 54% respectively, of the land area has slopes exceeding 20°. Approximately 3% of the land area is at sea level and these include the main towns and many of the key socio-economic facilities. There are a variety of coastal and marine resources in Grenada - coral reefs, sea grass beds and mangrove swamps - which have proven to be of crucial importance in the formation and sustenance of other resources as well as near-shore fisheries. The sea grass beds and mangrove wetlands are highly dependent on the presence of coral reefs (hydrodynamic barriers that dissipate wave energy) as it enhances the structure of the sea grass and mangrove communities. The country is characterized by a humid tropical climate, with relatively constant temperatures throughout the year, averaging 26 degrees centigrade. The mean maximum temperature is 31.4 degrees centigrade while the mean minimum is 24.0 degrees centigrade. Over the last decade, the annual rainfall ranged from 750 to 1400 mm. Two distinct rainfall patterns are evidenced. The dry season typically runs from January to May and the rainy season from June to December. Carriacou and Petit Martinique generally receive lower levels of rainfall and during the dry season can experience severe drought conditions.

131

Grenada lies in the path of the North East Trade Winds and although located south of the hurricane belt, the country is vulnerable to tropical storms, occasional hurricanes and storm surges. The hurricane season runs from June to November and Grenada was last hit by a major hurricane in 1955 (Hurricane Janet), which brought very extensive damage and resulted in the loss of over one hundred (100) lives. In 1999, the first major storm surge, as a consequence of Hurricane Lenny, caused severe infrastructural damage to the West Coast of Grenada and to Carriacou and Petit Martinique. In the intervening years, occasional storm damage has been experienced. The preliminary results of the 2000 Population Census reported a population of 102,000, with a population density of 296 per sq km. Estimates by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) describe the population as being fairly evenly distributed along gender lines, and with approximately 47 percent being less than 20 years old. A 1998 CDB Poverty Survey estimated that 32.1% of the population lived below the poverty line. The official literacy rate is 95% (Central Statistical Office). Gross Domestic Product69 in 2002 was US$250M. The annual growth of GDP averaged 7.1% for the 1998 – 2000 period. This was followed by declines of 3.3% and 0.5% in 2001 and 2002 respectively70. The main sectoral contributors to GDP in 2002 were Transport and Communications (23.8%), Government Services (17.9%), and Banking and Insurance (11.2%). The performance on some other key macro-economic indicators was: Per Capita Income - GNP per capita was US$4040 in 2000. Unemployment - Unemployment was12.2% in the year 2002, down from 16% in 1998. Inflation - The inflation rate, measured as the average annual percentage change in the consumer prices index fluctuated between 1.0% and 3.5% for the 1998 to 2002 period. The rate at the end of 2002 was 3 %. Exchange Rates – Grenada shares a common currency with the rest of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) – the Eastern Caribbean dollar (EC$). The EC exchange rate is set by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) and has been pegged to the United States dollar (US$) at a rate of US$1.00 to EC$2.70, since 1983. Public Debt - The outstanding public external debt in 2002 was 62.4% of GDP – up from 27.2% in 1998. Debt service ratio as a percentage of export of goods and services was 26% - up from 5.5% in 1998. The GDP declines in 2001 and 2002 were driven by declines in crop agriculture (11.5%

69 GDP at Factor Cost in constant (1990) prices 70 Sourced from IMF Country Report 03/26, Grenada: Statistical Appendices

132

in 2001 to 10% in 2002), construction (14.6% in 2001 to 6% in 2002) and wholesale and retail trade (3.2% in 2001 and 10% in 2002). Other sectors which experienced significant declines in 2001, but which recovered in 2002, were hotels and restaurants (4.3% decline) and communications (11.5% decline). D.1 TYPES AND HISTORICAL IMPACTS OF HAZARDS/DISASTERS There is very little data available on the historical impacts of storms and hazards in Grenada, including at the National Emergency Relief Organisation (NERO), the agency responsible for disaster management in Grenada. The only information related to climate-induced disasters that was available from NERO was that four (4) tropical systems had struck Grenada since 1950 – Hurricane Janet in 1955, during which over 100 persons died on the island of Grenada; Hurricane Flora in 1963, Tropical Storm Arthur in 1990, and Tropical Storm Lili in 2002. In addition, Grenada was affected by storm surges from Hurricane Lenny in 1999. Some information was also available in the documentation for the World Bank-financed Grenada Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Project that is currently being implemented. That documentation itself stated that, “Data on damages caused by hurricanes in Grenada specifically is also limited, as is data on the damages caused by the annual storm surges that affect the country.”71 In general, Grenada is very vulnerable to natural disasters stemming from hurricanes, floods and storm surges. During the last century, Grenada was struck by three hurricanes and experienced one major flood, and each year, it is subject to storm surges that batter its coastline. As recently as November 1999, the country was devastated by storm surges caused by Hurricane Lenny. The repercussions of disasters on Grenada and its economy can be severe, evidenced by the hurricane of 1955 which incurred damages of roughly 20% of GDP. The devastation associated with the impact of these hazards also often overwhelms local emergency systems resulting in the need for massive external assistance. In addition, its mountainous terrain and low population densities make the cost of providing, maintaining and repairing economic and social infrastructure high.72 The potential impacts of natural disasters on the key economic sectors include:

Tourism - Natural disasters can have a devastating impact on the tourism industry since tourists are generally wary about visiting a country that has been struck by a hurricane or tropical storm. In addition, it takes time to rehabilitate the infrastructure needed to serve the tourism industry. However, most hotels have protection/evacuation plans and emergency procedures, and are usually the most proactive in repairing their facilities after hurricanes.

71 Project Appraisal Document (PAD), Grenada Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Project, pg. 39 72 Ibid, pg.6

133

Agriculture - Agriculture is also vulnerable to natural hazards because of its dependence on foreign trade and since it continues to play an important role in the island's economic wealth. Although declining in total output, agriculture still represented about 9% of GDP in 1998, and exports from the agricultural industry--particularly nutmeg and mace-are an important source of revenue for Grenada. Roughly 60% of the country's nutmeg exports are processed to the north of Grand Mal Bay on the western side of the island, and the other 40% is processed on the eastern side. The harbour from which the exports are transported is located to the south of Grand Mal Bay, at the capital, St. Georges, and there is only one access road (the western coast road) that connects the agricultural processing zones with the harbour. Any disruptions due to damages to the road would therefore result in serious losses to agricultural producers, especially if damages are severe and repairs are not immediate.

Roads, Transport, and Coastal Areas - The transport and communication networks are increasingly vital to Grenada in terms of transporting both merchandise and people. However, the country's physical infrastructure is particularly vulnerable, as witnessed by the damage caused by the storm surges of Hurricane Lenny, in November 1999. Many populated areas are also vulnerable to recurrent disasters such as landslides and floods, which not only threaten lives, but also have a significant negative impact on road conditions and the road network, thereby causing disruptions in road transport, and eventually hampering economic activities. Selective strengthening of roads and bridges in key sections of the network is needed to help minimize this disruption.

There are three major routes in Grenada that form the backbone of the strategic highway network, namely the Western Coast Main Road, Eastern Coast Main Road and Grand Etang Road. Both the Western and Eastern Coast Main Roads are coastal, over large extents of their length, with the Western having a greater length of road adjacent to the sea. In addition to connecting important production centres with the capital, the western coast road also serves as the only means of access to employment for the population living to the north of St. Georges. To the north of the capital is also located an important fuel depot (the Texaco terminal), which also supplies the airport. This makes this section of the road, between St. Georges and Grand Mal Bay, a critical lifeline for the functioning of the island's economy. The Grand Mal Bay area is also home to roughly 1,300 people, and is also one of the largest fishing villages on the island. Not only is the government's ability to maintain and prevent breakdowns in the physical infrastructure important but also is its ability to repair critical facilities should they be damaged. Storm surges from Hurricane Lenny caused damages to the Western Main Coast Road between St. Georges and Gouyave Bay. Damages, especially caused at Grand Mal Bay/Fontenoy, disrupted transport between the

134

Texaco fuel depot to the north of St. Georges, and the southern parts of the island and resulted in a week-long shortage of gasoline in the gas stations in those areas. As no storage capacity exists at the international airport, air transport services were seriously constrained at this critical time when external aid was also most needed.

Grenada is also susceptible to localized flooding from heavy rains and to landslides and rock falls. The west coast is particularly vulnerable to the latter where one such incident in the mid-1990’s resulted in a bus filled with passengers being crushed by a falling boulder. Nine (9) persons were killed in that incident. D.2 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY Grenada’s vulnerability to climate change impacts was assessed during the preparation of its Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2000. That assessment was based on expert opinion in the absence of relevant models and data with which to assess the local impacts of climate change. Grenada also conducted a pilot vulnerability assessment of three coastal areas as a component of the regional CPACC project that was completed in 2002. The projected major manifestations of climate change, which were examined in the Initial National Communication and the CPACC Vulnerability Analysis, were:

Increase in temperature - temperature rise of 1.0°C to 3.5°C by 2100.

Sea Level rise - sea level rise of 15 cm to 95cm by 2100.

Overall reduction in volume of precipitation, but increase in intensity - wetter wet

seasons and severer and longer droughts during the dry seasons are predicted. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme events (tropical cyclones, rainfall

and drought). Table D.1 summarises the potential impacts on the various sectors as described in the Initial National Communication and the report of the CPACC vulnerability analysis. The table shows that climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods and droughts with attendant increase in adverse impacts. It is also projected to create new hazards including heat stress and increased incidence of tropical diseases outbreaks. The impacts resulting from climate change will therefore not be restricted to the physical impacts on infrastructure and human settlements. They are also projected to extend to the

135

major socio-economic sectors like agriculture, tourism, water supply and health, as well as to critical eco-systems like forests, beaches, coral reefs, sea grasses and mangroves.

Table D.1: Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Grenada Climate Change Manifestation

Infrastructure/ Human Settlements

Agriculture Tourism Health Water Supply Ecosystems


Crop stress due to higher evapo-transpiration

Decline in visitor arrivals due to increased competition

Heat Stress in elderly people and small children

Reduced water supplies

Alteration in range of species

Increase in forests pests and disease

Sea Level Rise Higher storm surges

Coastal flooding

Infrastructure damage

Inundation of significant commercial areas in St. George’s, Grenville and Carriacou


Damage to coastal ecosystem have negative impact on fish production

Significant Beach erosion in major tourist belt

Coral bleaching

Salinity of drinking water

Salinity of ground water aquifers near to coast, especially in Carriacou

Retreat & loss of mangrove and sea grass – important fisheries habitats


Flood damage from more intense rainfall

Landslides Rock Falls

Flood damage

Landslides Rock Falls Pests and

diseases

Damage to eco-tourist sites

Increased exposure to water borne diseases

Decrease in water quality

Damage to supply lines

Damage from soil erosion

Landslides Rock Falls


Drought Low yields due to reduced rainfall

Increased Gastro-enteritis and Asthma

Decrease in water supplies

Tropical Cyclones

Physical damage from wind, rainfall, storm surges

Physical damage from wind, rainfall

Damage to critical infrastructure, beaches

Physical damage, decrease in water quality, disruption in water available

Physical damage from wind and landslides

The World Bank project documentation also made reference to the impacts of climate change stating that, “Key sections of the coastline of the island have been retreating in

136

association with rises in sea level and increasing frequency of storms, trends which are predicted to continue. Because of the inland topography, coastal areas are vital to the country's economy as they are the locus for major population centres and highways.”73 D.3 CURRENT CAPACITY INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE The National Emergency Relief Organisation (NERO) manages disaster management in Grenada. This agency is a functional part of the Office of the Prime Minister, who is the chairperson of NERO. Its stated mission is, “to reduce the loss of life and property within Grenada, Carriacou and Petit Martinique by ensuring that adequate preparedness, response and mitigation measures are in place to deal with the impact of hazards.”74 NERO’s organizational chart is presented in Figure D.1 below.

Source: NERO Figure D.1: Organisational Chart - National Emergency Relief Organisation (NERO) The key components are:

The National Emergency Executive Council – This Council exercises overall policy direction and control of disaster operations. It is not a standing committee and is only activated during an emergency. It members are:

o Prime Minister – Chairman o Permanent Secretary – Office of Prime Minister o National Disaster Coordinator o Director – Government Information Service o Commissioner of Police o Other relevant persons designated by the Prime Minister in keeping with

73 Ibid, pg. 21 74 NERO documentation

CHAIRMAN Prime Minister

DEPUTY CHAIRMAN Permanent Secretary PM Office

National Emergency Executive Council

National Disaster Office National Emergency Advisory Council

National Planning and Implementation Council

Management Committees

District Committees

137

the nature of the emergency.

The National Emergency Advisory Council – comprises representatives from the private and public sectors and from non-governmental and voluntary organisations. It is responsible for:

o Suggesting, reviewing and approving disaster preparedness programs and

plans and ensuring activities are fully coordinated and supported by respective agencies;

o Mobilising resources and coordinating response activities for all disasters

and emergency situations;

o Promoting preparedness and mitigation measures and rapid response techniques by all organisations with disaster management functions; and

o Advising Cabinet on guidelines and administrative policies for disaster

management.

The National Disaster Office – serves as the Secretariat of the Advisory Council and the administrative arm of NERO. The work of the office is supported by fifteen (15) management sub-committees with responsibility for specific aspects of disaster management and sixteen (16) District Disaster Committees assigned to cover the entire state of Grenada. The fifteen (15) management sub-committees are:

o Public Information and Education o Damage Assessment (Statistics) o Transport and Road Clearance o Shelters and Shelter Administration o Health Services o Emergency Telecommunication o Emergency Supplies – Food and General Supplies o Public Utilities o Rehabilitation and Reconstruction o Search and Rescue – Land and Sea o Welfare Services o Voluntary Service o Earthquake and Landslides o Marine Pollution and Oil Spills o Hazardous Materials and Toxic Wastes.

The office is currently staffed by a National Disaster Coordinator, supported by two staff assistants.

138

D.4 DISASTER MANAGEMENT POLICY FRAMEWORK There is no formal, written Disaster Management Policy in Grenada and the current approach is primarily response driven. There are two initiatives underway with the potential to change this. The first is the Grenada Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Project which is premised on a more proactive approach as described in the project document: “The government’s strategy to strengthen disaster management capacity is to adopt and implement institutional measures aimed at improving preparation for and response to disaster emergencies, increase staffing in concerned agencies, implement a comprehensive training program, and put in place sustainable procedures to ensure quick response in case of natural disasters” 75. The main initiatives being undertaken to achieve this are:

Strengthening the human resource capacity of NERO through additional

professional staff financed by Government as permanent positions, and improved disaster planning and operational emergency procedures;

Institutionalising disaster management into mainstream government functions, in

particular through specialized technical training for NERO and all concerned branches of government, as well as other agencies, the private sector and communities;

Sensitising communities to disaster preparedness and mitigation to demonstrate

the effectiveness of properly organized committees representing all sectors of the community such as churches, schools, the business community, etc.;

Establishing a full-fledged National Hazard Mitigation Council (NHMC) to serve

as an inter-ministerial body consisting of a broad representation of concerned ministries and agencies, the private sector, and NGOs;

Increasing investments in mitigation and prevention measures; and

Designating and renovating the NERO building that houses the national

Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) and also serves as the National Disaster Office (NDO).”

Grenada is also participating in a Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Program (CHAMP)76, one component of which is to develop a Hazard Mitigation Policy. 75 Ibid, pg. 8 76 The Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Program (CHAMP) is aimed at strengthening the capability of Governments in the region to incorporate natural hazard vulnerability reduction strategies into development planning. It is a three-year initiative (June 2002 – May 2005), which is being piloted in Belize, BVI, Grenada and St. Lucia. It is managed by CDERA in collaboration with the OAS, with support from CIDA (CHAMP Brochure)

139

A draft policy has already been developed, but has not yet been submitted to Cabinet for approval and adoption. Other outputs expected from CHAMP include:

Presentation packages targeting political leadership in the region in support of comprehensive vulnerability reduction;

Assessment of the legislative, fiscal and technical capabilities and constraints for

implementing hazard mitigation activities in pilot countries;

Atlases of hazard maps and assessments of the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in each of the target countries; and

A hazard mitigation policy implementation program in each pilot country77.

The successful implementation of CHAMP should result in Grenada beginning to develop a mitigation culture and institutionalising a more proactive approach to disaster management. D.5 LEGAL FRAMEWORK There is no Emergency Legislation to provide the authority and context for Disaster Management in Grenada. Work was started on such legislation in the mid-1990’s, as part of the OAS-financed Natural Disaster Mitigation Plan. New legislation has not yet been developed and the entire subject is being revisited under the Grenada Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Project. D.6 OPERATIONAL PLANNING AND CAPACITY Operational planning is guided by the National Disaster Plan, which was developed in 1985. There is also a Volcanic Emergency Plan (1997) and a National Oil Spill Emergency Plan (2001). These plans rely to a great extent on the functioning of the Management Committees and District Disaster Committees for their successful implementation. The World Bank’s project documentation describes the national disaster plan as, “…operationally outdated, and it has no legal authority”78. The implementation structures are very weak at present, with many of the District Disaster Committees not functioning effectively. One of the problems with the District Committees has been the perception that some of the members of these committees are selected on a politically partisan basis. This has created tensions within these committees with the result that some of them have become non-functional. In addition, the District Disaster Committees are purely voluntary and do not coordinate adequately with local level government structures for disaster management (e.g., the local level health disaster team or the coast guard). They are not well trained, have weak mobilization capacity to handle emergencies, and are not properly equipped to effectively

77 CHAMP brochure 78 PAD, pg.7

140

deal with emergency situations. The District Disaster Committees also tend to act as “relief” committees rather than committees that can play an active role in disaster preparedness and mitigation.79 There is a need to restructure these committees, institutionalise them, and facilitate better cooperation between them and local government structures. At the operational level:

There is very little planning for disaster investments and a lack of proactive efforts to improve preparedness measures;

Disaster emergency procedures are not regularly tested;

There is little collaboration between all stakeholders, and for all to be closely

associated with emergency measures (e.g., disaster committees, community leaders and organizations);

There are no real regulations to prepare and/or enforce zoning and the new

building codes; and There is no effective early warning and emergency communications system.80

These capacity weaknesses are all being addressed by the project which supports two types of strategic activities: (i) strengthening disaster management capacity through institutional development and capacity-building measures, including a comprehensive training program available to staff involved with disaster management in all concerned agencies, and support to community involvement in disaster preparedness, mitigation and response; and (ii) preventive physical mitigation. The first component of the project, is called Strengthening Disaster Management Capacity and includes four sub-components: 1) strengthening the National Emergency Relief Organization (NERO), including inter alia rehabilitating the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC), strengthening its human resource capacity, elaborating/revising emergency procedures (including protection/evacuation plans and emergency procedures), procuring emergency equipment, rescue tools and supplies, and preparing a comprehensive disaster management training program open to other agencies and communities; 2) developing a country-wide early warning and emergency communications system, including technical assistance and procuring specialized equipment; 3) implementing a shelter program, including training and retrofitting selected public buildings; and 4) capacity-building measures for the Ministry of Works, including training and procuring stocks of prefabricated metallic bridges and gabions. Institutional reforms and capacity building in the area of disaster preparedness,

79 Ibid, pg.7 80 Ibid, pg.7

141

prevention and mitigation, is being promoted through various capacity-building measures, namely:

i. Enhancing the capacity of NERO to perform its role effectively and in a timely manner, in particular through appropriate staffing and a recognized authority to act;

ii. Ensuring that the National Disaster Plan is updated and related disaster management

procedures are in place;

iii. Formulating a national environmental protection policy and guidelines, and strengthening the institutional capacity, in particular in the Ministry of Works (MCWPU), to preserve the environment; and

iv. Protecting and maintaining infrastructure facilities through increased funding for

maintenance, improved construction standards, better capacity to enforce disaster mitigation regulations, and enhanced MCWPU capacity to quickly react during emergencies. The overall programme will also finance studies and other initiatives to enhance preparedness to manage future emergency situations in the long-term, such as those related to hazard analysis, vulnerability mapping and risk assessment; building legislation; and seismic and volcano monitoring, which would be funded by other donors or under a next phase of the program.

The project is also focusing on further reforms and restructuring actions, in particular regarding staffing and training, awareness and information, including inter alia, to:

(i) Appoint a full-time National Disaster Coordinator (NDC) as a high-level civil servant, with the unique function of bringing diverse groups together to promote disaster mitigation, stimulate preparedness and to coordinate relief operations;

(ii) Staff ODP with professional and permanent civil servants; (iii) Develop an appropriate institutional process to engage/mobilize all parts of

society and stakeholders in disaster preparedness and emergency management;

(iv) Regularly undertake disaster-related training in order to improve emergency management skills;

(v) Draft and support laws and regulations to strengthen national and community disaster awareness and protection;

(vi) Engage business and industry resources to support public projects; (vii) Stimulate the private sector to develop plans to protect their own productive

capacity; and (viii) Improve the degree of preparation of MCWPU to respond to emergency

situations and manage disasters through quick removal of debris and repairs.81 The other project components address physical mitigation through the construction of sea

81 Ibid, pg. 12

142

defences and road rehabilitation, and through the financing of three studies to define programs of preventive disaster mitigation investments with regard to: i) coastal zone management, ii) drainage and flood control, and iii) river training and slope protection. The Terms of References for these studies will be reviewed to include appropriate environmental requirements to be accounted for in the design of the future civil works, and make recommendations as to the type of mitigation measures which should be carried out as part of the proposed investments. The key outcome indicators that have been defined for the project82 are:

Operational emergency procedures and mobilization guidelines in place as per international standards by July 2001.

Improved reporting of weather information by the Meteorological Office to

NERO as per the following--a) with regularity (at least once daily); and b) quality (verified by missions of the Caribbean Meteorological Organization or equivalent institution).

Enhanced ability of NERO to accurately analyse incoming information and data

on emergencies, and serve as a single “clearing house” for early warning information and dissemination (as evidenced by timely decision-making, the triggering of emergency procedures and timely dissemination of warnings by NERO to populations at risk).

Increased number of people serviced by adequate shelters due to the retrofitting

program. No more than one day of interruption to traffic in the Grand Mal Bay area due to

weather conditions. Strengthened capacity in MCWPU to carry out works during emergencies.

National Disaster Coordinator (NDC) position filled by a full-time permanent

civil servant; at least 2 additional professional staff (a Deputy Coordinator and a Technical/Data Specialist) in NERO by December 2000.

National Hazard Mitigation Council (NHMC) with defined membership by

August 2000. Adequately equipped and staffed Meteorological Office with complete early

warning system. At least 72-hour advance warning from Meteorological Office to NERO of

82 Ibid, pg.4

143

impending tropical events. Number of District Disaster Coordinators reached, and reduced response time of

those coordinators to an emergency. At least one training course carried out for high-level officials in managing

emergencies. Number of shelters retrofitted.

Number of shelter managers actually from communities.

At least one shelter manager per shelter trained and in place.

Dedicated unit in MCWPU capable of erecting on-site metallic bridges of a 6m

span in one day. Training for MCWPU in carrying out EIAs and monitoring and managing

mitigation measures. Sea defences constructed and road rehabilitated at Grand Mal Bay.

Recommendations of studies financed by the project reviewed by Government

before the end of 2001, and approved recommendations implemented by the end of 2002.

Project implementation is behind schedule, especially in the critical institutional strengthening of NERO. The detailed work on this component is expected to come on stream in early 2004, and the project completion date has been extended to December 2004, to allow sufficient time for that component to be completed. D.7 SUMMARY OF CURRENT CAPACITY GAPS AND NEEDS Significant capacity gaps currently exist within Grenada’s disaster management framework. However, these gaps have been identified and are being addressed by two projects. Successful implementation of these projects will go a long way towards institutionalising Comprehensive Disaster Management in Grenada. It must be noted, however, that climate change considerations are not an integral part of these projects. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) for the Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Projects specifically states that the technical components of the physical mitigation aspects – sea defence component – were based on mid -1990’s design parameters. The absence of climate change considerations was confirmed by senior

144

project officials. A technical audit of the design parameters is now underway and efforts are being made to get climate change considerations included as part of the new design parameters that will be recommended. The implications of this for the extensive sea defences already constructed are yet to be determined. In the case of CHAMP, the Government has ensured that climate change considerations are brought to bear in the mitigation processes being developed by including the Climate Change Project Coordinator as a member of the project management committee. The draft Climate Change policy includes explicit recognition of the need to respond to climate change impacts.

D.8 CLIMATE CHANGE CAPACITY - INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE Climate Change programming in Grenada is located within the Ministry of Finance in Grenada. It is managed as a project within the Projects Development Unit, with day-to-day activities being assigned to a contracted Project Coordinator, who is supervised by a Climate Change Focal Point. The latter is responsible for a number of other portfolios in addition to climate change. D.9 CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMMING Table D.2 is a summary of the climate change programming to date and illustrates, inter alia, that all the programming that has been initiated, has been largely project-driven and externally funded.

Table D.2: Climate Change Programming in Grenada Program Date Output Funding

Caribbean Program for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC)

1997 – 2001 . Participation in relevant CPACC regional components . Pilot vulnerability assessment for three coastal areas

OAS/World Bank

Initial National Communication Enabling Activity – Phase 1(a)

April 1999 – October 2000

Grenada’s Initial National Communication to UNFCCC

GEF/UNDP

145

Program Date Output Funding Initial National Communication Enabling Activity – Phase 1(b)

July 2001 – June 2002

. Formation and training of National Climate Change Committee . Analysis and recommendations for ratification of Kyoto Protocol . Development of project proposal for funding under Enabling Activity Phase 2 (Top Up) Development of Public Awareness Strategy

GEF/UNDP

Initial National Communication Enabling Activity – Phase 2

May 2003 – December 2003

Implementation of Phase 2 project, viz: Awareness and outreach in

Tourism, Education and Energy sectors

Strengthening capacity of eater sector to monitor stream flows

Strengthening capacity of meteorological and agro-met services to analyse weather data

Vulnerability analysis of northern coastline

GEF/UNDP

Programming was initiated in 1997 as part of Grenada’s participation in the regional CPACC project and was institutionalised in April 1999, to fulfil Grenada’s requirement to the UNFCCC to produce an Initial National Communication on Climate Change. It is important to note that none of the projects to date has included public awareness programming. The information available to the general public in Grenada is therefore limited to what has been available from news broadcasts and the population is largely unaware of the specific risks posed by climate change. D.10 NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE A significant outcome of the process to date has been the formal appointment by Cabinet of a National Climate Change Committee. That Committee was appointed in August 2001, and formally launched in April 2002, with a mandate to “integrate Climate Change considerations into development planning at the sectoral level”. The membership of the Committee was drawn from all sectors identified by the Initial National Communication as having the potential to be affected by climate change, viz:

146

- The Ministry of Finance, Climate Change Focal Point, Chairperson

- Climate Change Project Coordinator, Deputy Chairman

- Land Use Division, Ministry of Agriculture

- National Water and Sewage Authority

- Ministry of Health, Environmental Protection Officer

- Ministry of Education, Education/Curriculum Division

- Grenada Board of Tourism

- Ministry of Works – Energy Unit

- Grenada Meteorological Unit

- Ministry of Finance, Physical Planning Unit

- Ministry of Legal Affairs

- The Inter-Agency Group of Developmental Organisations (IAGDO)

- Grenada Chamber of Commerce

- National Emergency Relief Organisation

- Grenada Ports Authority

- Royal Grenada Police Force

Since its establishment, the Committee’s work has been largely project-driven, i.e., advising on the design of the Phase II (Top UP) project and managing its implementation. In addition, the work of the Climate Change project coordinator has been determined by project-related activity and is therefore constrained to focus on activities within the scope of the projects being implemented. There have been no specific resources allocated for non-project activities and this has constrained the scope of work that has been done by the Committee to date. It is significant to note, however, that the Cabinet has appointed the Project Coordinator as a member of the sub-committee responsible for managing the Hazard Mitigation Project. This was done to ensure that climate change considerations are specifically considered within the Mitigation process.

147

D.11 STRENGTHENING THE CAPACITY Grenada’s capacity needs in the areas of disaster management and climate change span the spectrum of systemic capacity, institutional capacity and individual capacity for both of these focus areas. There is a need for strengthening the enabling environments, for strengthening the institutions and for the development of individual skills in both areas. However, Grenada has already initiated two projects which address the significant capacity gaps in the disaster management area. As a result, the nature and extent of the interventions required in the Grenada context will depend to a large extent on the level of success with which the CHAMP and the Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Projects are managed over the next twelve (12) to eighteen (18) months. If one assumes that these projects will be implemented with a reasonable level of success, then Grenada will be well on the road to strengthening its capacity in disaster management at all three levels. This leaves the incorporation of climate change into the developmental process as the major capacity gap to be addressed. The formal establishment and continued functioning of the National Climate Change Committee is a useful step in that direction. Its membership in the management of the CHAMP process also provides it with a strategic position from which to ensure that climate change is formally incorporated into the national disaster mitigation policy and processes and into the hazard mapping and vulnerability analyses being conducted under the project. But this is not enough. In order to ensure that climate change considerations are incorporated in a practical and ongoing manner, the overall approach to Climate Change has to be become more systematic and the National Climate Change Committee has to move to the stage where it can, on a continuous basis, address what it sees as the priority needs. At the systemic level, this would require the Development and Adoption of a National Policy on Climate Change. Despite the Cabinet-level appointment of a National Climate Change Committee, Grenada does not have a policy framework within which climate change is being addressed. The development of such a policy is a critical next step in mainstreaming the work of the Committee, as it will provide a rational framework within which it can now initiate actions at the national level. At the institutional level, the Committee will have to focus on:

Developing a capacity for working outside of projects. The information in Table

D.2 indicates that the climate change programming has been punctuated by gaps of inactivity between projects – six (6) months between Phase 1(a) and Phase 1(b) and a further eleven (11) months before the start of Phase 2. This reliance on external funding is in part influenced by the knowledge that external funds are available and can therefore be used as an alternative to local funding. While this

148

may be so, the gaps between projects and the narrow focus of the project funding means that the scope of work that could be addressed during any specific period is restricted. It is therefore necessary to move climate change programming on to a more proactive and sustainable basis. In this context, it must be noted that efforts are being made to rationalise national environmental management, which is currently being done by a one-person unit. This may, or may not, result in more specific attention being paid to climate change programming in the long run.

Developing a capacity for conducting ongoing outreach activities and public

education activities. This is critical to achieving the mandate of the committee. Initial outreach activities were included in the Phase 2 project and targeted senior personnel in the tourism sector and teachers in the education sector. This initial outreach was very successful, with the workshop evaluations including statements like “we need more of this kind of training”, and “this needs to be discussed at the highest levels.”

Integration of climate change considerations into the sectoral development process will require more of this kind of in-depth outreach activities, i.e., seminars/workshops tailored for each sector and targeted at the entire senior management personnel of the sectors. This should be supported by community level work, especially with vulnerable coastal communities, in the initial phase.

These outreach activities will have to be focused on the need for adaptation to the potential threats of climate change and on the development of appropriate adaptation responses.

Developing a capacity for conducting vulnerability analyses not conducted under

the CHAMP - The range of vulnerability analyses to be conducted under the CHAMP has not yet been determined. It may be necessary therefore to access support for additional vulnerability analyses that are important from a climate change perspective. These could include the “softer” areas like the impacts on crop yields, water supply and human health.

At the individual level there is a need for Technical Training in Adaptation Processes. The Committee’s work will require the support of technical personnel who can assist the individual sectors in identifying and developing adaptation options for their respective sectors. Support may also be required in developing funding proposals for adaptation projects that their respective sectors may not be able to finance out of their local budgets.

149

D.12 SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS It is therefore recommended that Grenada’s capacity to manage the increased disaster risk posed by climate change be enhanced in the short run by the following actions:

Participatory development of a National Climate Change Policy Framework. Incorporation of a budget line for climate change into the national budget that

will at least provide the National Climate Change Committee with the resources to engage in proactive programming and ensures continuity between projects. The latter could be used to target the more intensive aspects of the climate change programming.

Provision of support to the National Climate Change Committee to initiate and

conduct outreach activities at the sectoral level aimed at raising awareness of the potential impacts of climate change and the need to respond. This support should commence as soon as possible to take advantage of the awareness and opportunities that will be created by the CHAMP process.

Provision of support to the National Climate Change Committee to initiate and

conduct public awareness and outreach activities at the community level aimed at raising awareness of the potential impacts of climate change and the need to respond. This support should commence as soon as possible to take advantage of the awareness and opportunities that will be created by the CHAMP process.

Provision of support for the conduct of vulnerability analyses for the climate

change impacts that will not be addressed by the CHAMP process.

Access to vulnerability and adaptation training and skills development for Grenadian professionals from the various sectoral agencies.

Access to funding for viable adaptation projects.

150

APPENDIX E

CUBA COUNTRY REPORT

OVERVIEW The Republic of Cuba is located in the Caribbean basin, between 19° 49’ 36” and 23° 17’ 09” North latitude, and 74° 07’ 52” and 84° 54’ 57” West longitude. The Cuban Archipelago is the westernmost in the Greater Antilles with a total land area of 110,860 km2. This includes mainland Cuba with total land area of 104,945 km2 and the Isle of Youth with 5,915 km2. In addition, there are 1,600 small islands and Cays. Cuba is long and narrow, extending 1,200 km east-west in length and width ranging from 193 km at its widest point to 32 km at the narrowest point. The total length of the coastline is 6,073 km, comprising of 5,746 km for mainland Cuba and 327 km for the Isle of Youth and other islets and cays. The insular shelf covers more than 50,000 km2. The entire archipelago represents 0.08 per cent of the earth’s land surface, ranking fifteenth among the largest islands in the world.

There are four mountain systems occupying an estimated 19,594 km2 or 18 per cent of the total area of the country. The maximum height is “Pico Real del Turquino” which rises 1,974 m above sea level. The plains represent 82 per cent of the total land area. The lowest areas correspond to marshes and coastal marshes. The agricultural area in Cuba is over 6,000,000 hectares (ha), of which more than 2,000,000 ha are devoted to the permanent cultivation of sugar cane. Almost 3,000,000 ha of the Cuban territory are covered by forest. The State owns 53.7 per cent of the arable land, while the rest (46.3%) belongs to the private sector.

A wide range of soils exists in Cuba, and these have been classified into ten (10) generic groups according to their origins. The red and hydromorphic soils are wide-spread on the plains of western Cuba, while brown less fertile soils are common in the central and eastern sections of the island. Thin, stony, less evolved soils are found in mountainous areas and the bare and partially bare rock karstic plains. The most productive soils are located in the plains of central-western Cuba, and in some areas on plains of the central part of the country. Given the diversity of Cuban soils, they offer diverse potential for the development of the agricultural and forest sectors. The Climate of Cuba and its Variations Cuba’s climate is characterized as tropical and seasonally wet, with marine influence and

151

semi-continental features. The mean annual temperature ranges from 24ºC on the plains to 26ºC and even higher for the eastern coasts. Recorded temperatures for the highest elevations are lower than 20ºC. The most variable element of the Cuban climate is rainfall. Average annual rainfall measures 1,300 mm for most parts of the territory. Two main seasons are recognised: the rainy season from May to October; and not very rainy season from November to April. Approximately 80 per cent of the total annual rainfall is received during May to October. Tropical cyclones (TC) are among the most significant meteorological events affecting Cuba. The significance of TC’s is directly related to their direct impacts as well as their frequency. Figure E.1 shows the frequency of categories four and five hurricanes over the period 1980 to 1995.

Studies of air circulation in the region of the Caribbean Sea have suggested that the structure and influence of the high level pressure system of the Subtropical Atlantic have undergone changes in multi-decadal time scales (Naranjo and Centella, 1997). Such changes have produced a significant trend toward an increase in the influence of the East zonal winds over Cuba. At the end of the decade of the 1970s, a significant warming in the low part of the troposphere was detected in the Caribbean Region, which supports the idea of important changes in the underlying climatic conditions, and this is consistent with significant variations detected in circulation patterns over the North-Pacific sector of the Americas (Trenberth and Shea, 1997).

FIGURE E.1 Hurricanes of Category 4 and 5 Affecting Cuba (1890- 1995)

152

The evidence clearly indicates that the climate of Cuba has become warmer. For instance, during the last four decades the mean annual temperature has increased by about 0.5°C, with the warmest period occurring in the 80s and 90s (See Figure E.2). This increment in temperature was due mainly to the significant increase in minimum temperatures of about 1.4°C. As the trends in maximum temperatures are not significant, the diurnal temperature changes show an important decrease of almost 2°C. Although long time-series precipitation data have not shown significant variation, during the last decades an increment in rainfall was observed during the less rainy season, together with a decrease in the rainfall for the rainy season. Additionally, the frequency of droughts has increased significantly from the 1960s. These variations appear to be related to the possible intensification of the hydrological cycle caused by the heating processes.

With regard to other extreme events such as tornados, hails and heavy rains, the climate in Cuba appears to have become more extreme during the last three decades. Heavy rains reported during the decades of the 80s were more consistent with patterns for the twentieth century, while the tornados and other intense weather events have become more frequent since 1977 (Alfonso 1995). ENSO phenomena play an important role as a forcing agent of climate variability in Cuba. This influence is reflected fundamentally as an increment to both the amount of

-2 .0

-1 .5

-1 .0

-0 .5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

°C

FIGURE E. 2 Annual mean minimum temperature anomalies regarding 1961-90 average.

153

winter precipitations and the frequency of severe events (Cárdenas y Naranjo 1996; Alfonso 1995). However, the influence of the ENSO does not present a regular behaviour. Naranjo and Centella (1997) suggested that the impact ENSO in the Caribbean has been increased since the 1970s, governed by patterns that are associated to the changes in observed underlying climatic conditions during this time period. In summary, the changes observed in the climate of Cuba during the last four decades consistently indicate an important shift since the decade of the 1970s. Additionally, the observed trends are consistent with the IPCC climate change projections (IPCC, 2001).

Population In 1998, the population of Cuba was estimated at 11,139, 900. The mean annual population growth rate is estimated at 4.2 per thousand inhabitants, with a density of 100.5 inhabitants/km2. Also, the average number of children per mother in Cuba is 1.58, which is the lowest in Latin America. About 74.3 per cent of the Cuban population lives in 570 urban settlements (55 classified as cities with populations that vary between 20,000 and more than 1 million inhabitants), while the remaining 25. 7 per cent resides in 6,264 rural settlements or communities. Economy In the early 1990’s, Cuba experienced a significant economic downturn, due, in part, to the abrupt loss of nearly 80 per cent of its foreign trade. This deterioration resulted primarily from the collapse of the socialist system in Europe and the inability to access external credit. These negative developments translated into a fall of almost 35 per cent in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 1989 and 1993. However, in 1994, the Cuban economy experienced growth of 0.7 per cent. The recovery was sustained in 1995 and has continued in subsequent years. In fact, the economy has enjoyed six consecutive year of improvement in GDP, reaffirming the continuity of the recovery process started in 1994. This conclusion is corroborated by data published in the ECLAC (2002) Annual Report. The GDP of Cuban depends fundamentally on the manufacturing and the agricultural sectors. However, recently, the service sector, including tourism and the communal, social and personal services, has contributed significantly in the growth of GDP. Table E.1 shows the GDP by sector for three selected years, based on official data supplied by the National Statistical Office (ONE, 1998). Health According to data of the National Statistical Office (ONE, 1998); the National Health System had 1,783 medical facilities providing services at different levels. Of this total, 281 were hospitals and 442 were clinics covering 100 per cent of the population. This structure ensures 81,500 beds, distributed in the Human Settlements System according to its hierarchical levels. These facilities had a total of 60,129 doctors, or one doctor per 185

154

inhabitants, being dedicated 47 per cent to the primary attention (family doctors). There is also one dentist per 1,200 inhabitants.

TABLE E. 1 Gross Domestic Product at constant 1981 Prices (Million Cuban Pesos).

1993 1995 1997 SECTOR

MCP % MCP % MCP %

Agriculture, hunt, forestry and fishing

924.9 7.2 915.5 6.9 1 073.7 7.4

Mining and Quarrying 96.4 0.9 152.1 1.2 181.9 1.3

Manufacturing 3,103.6 24.3 3,555.2 27.0 4,154.5 28.5

Electricity, gas and water 335.2 2.6 384.2 2.9 421.8 2.9

Construction 385.7 3.0 412.1 3.1 556.0 3.8

Trade, restaurant and hotels 2,936.4 23.0 2,984.8 22.6 3,175.8 21.8

Transport, storage and communications 733.3 5.7 748.4 5.7 845.4 5.8

Financial, property goods and enterprise services 513.4 4.0 483.8 3.7 544.5 3.7

Communal, social and personal services

3,747.8 29.3 3,548.4 26.9 3,618.8 24.8

Total 12,776.7 100.0 13,184.5

100.0 14,572.4 100.0

Education According to the National Statistical Office of Cuba (ONE, 1998), there are 12,235 educational centres offering educational services to 2.2 millions students at different levels of teaching. Of the total number of educational facilities, 9,481 are primary schools, 1,893 are secondary schools, 384 are devoted to adult education, 445 are for special teaching, and 32 offer higher-level education. These educational facilities are distributed throughout the country offering total coverage at all levels. In 1996 the system

155

graduated 383,800 students at all levels. The national literacy rate is estimated at 97.5 per cent. Having provided a synopsis of the physical, social and economic geography of Cuba, the remainder of this report is structured as follows: Section 2 examines the main climate related hazards or disasters with particular emphasis on tropical storms, severe local storms, droughts and ENSO events. The vulnerability of Cuba to climate change events is the subject of Section 3. Here, particular emphasis is devoted to socio-economic impacts. In Section 4, we evaluate the existing capacity for hazard/disaster management, with special emphasis on institutional structures. Finally, Section 5 looks at aspects of climate change capacity building initiatives. E.2 TYPES AND HISTORICAL IMPACTS OF HAZARDS/DISASTERS This section describes the more important climate and weather related hazards/disaster based on available historical information. In several cases, the information regarding the economic, social or environmental impacts is very sparse, thus limiting the quality of the analysis and consequent conclusions. Nonetheless, the evidence clearly highlights the importance of the selected hazards/disasters. The evaluation is focused on tropical cyclones, severe local storms (a Cuban classification of thunderstorm), drought and climate related anomalies of the ENSO events.

Tropical Cyclones Among the severe weather events affecting Cuba, tropical cyclones (TC) are considered the most important. The number of tropical cyclones that annually affect Cuba is extremely variable, with totals ranging from 0 to 5 storms (from 0 to 4 in the case of hurricanes). During the hurricane season, Cuba is visited by an average of one hurricane every 1.9 years, and the western part of the country is generally more affected. In general, the main impacts of TCs are concentrated over coastal areas and are due mainly to heavy rainfall, tornadoes, and flooding caused by rainfall and storm surges. In fact, the two main natural disasters that Cuba has suffered in the last 100 years, were produced by the hurricane of Santa Cruz in 1932, and hurricane Flora in 1963, with more than 3,000 and 1,500 persons loosing their lives, respectively. Table E.2 highlights several other TC that hit Cuba, resulting in important social and economical impacts. Limia et al (2000), estimates the impacts on Cuba, of eight TCs between 1997 and 1998 and concluded that more than 7,500 people died as a result. It is interesting to note that the hurricane at Santa Cruz, and hurricane Flora, accounted for approximately half of the reported deaths.

156

TABLE E 2 Impacts of Selected Hurricanes on Cuba Housing Hurricane(s) Human

Death Economic

costs (M CP) Affected Destroyed Georges 6 - 60,475 3,481 Michelle 5 1, 866 166,515 12,579 Lili & Isidore 1 713 92,291 17,481 Kate (18 November 1985) 4 65,000 Georges (24 September 1998)

5 60,475

Irene (13 October 1999) 4 28,066 Although loss of life was relatively low for the TC indicated in Table E.2, the economic costs were substantial. For example, the area of crops damaged was 944,460, 211,157, and 218,849 ha for Kate, Georges and Irene, respectively. The corresponding number of persons who had to be evacuated was 365,000, 556,672, and 228,067, respectively. Severe Local Storms In Cuba, a thunderstorm is classified as a severe local storm (SLS) when it is associated with tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of more than 90 km/h, hail, and/or waterspouts. Based on a study of 25 El Niño years, only four had no major SLS events. In particular, the number of devastating tornadoes increases during El Niño years. Therefore, in El Niño years, the presence of SLS episodes of extreme force should be expected. Arnaldo Alfonso, a leading Cuban meteorologist, evaluated the effect of SLS on Cuba. He concluded that 53 SLS were responsible for a total of 90 deaths between 1905 and 1985. Alfonso further noted, that because SLS are weather phenomena with very limited spatial dimensions, the reported number of associated deaths is very significant. Alfonso also reported that since the sixties, an estimated 66 persons have died annually in Cuba from lightening strikes. Given the annual deaths associated with lightening, it seems reasonable to infer that SLS are correlated with strong electrostatic activity. Comprehensive data on the economic impacts of SLS are sketchy. However, Alfonso (2000) estimates that the SLS that occurred on 16 February 1983, produced economic losses valued at more than 1.5 million Cuban Pesos. In addition, he estimates that between 1981 and 1985, the economic impact of SLSs is in the order of 10 million Cuban Pesos. Droughts The frequency of years with severe and moderate drought has doubled in the last 30 years, with negative consequences for agriculture production and soil conservation. Cuban soils are experiencing serious signs of salinity and desertification in coastal and semi-arid areas. This is because droughts are usually combined with high evaporation

157

rates, which result in reduced soil moisture and a drop in the groundwater level. Occasionally, when droughts are interrupted by episodes of torrential rains, the interaction between rainfall intensity and dry soils causes an intense erosion process on soils with poor vegetative cover and a high surface drainage. A very important drought related condition is the existence of climatic conditions conducive to forest fires that could produce aggregate damages similar to those caused directly by drought. Although, forest fires are in main started by human actions, the existence of favourable climatic conditions could favour the occurrence of dramatic fire related disaster. Recent analysis of the behaviour of drought in Cuba, shows that the Eastern part of the island is more prone to this event. In fact, over the past five hydrological years, droughts have resulted in serious economic and social dislocations. The impact of droughts on the eastern sections of Cuba are extremely damaging, representing annual rainfall reductions in the order of 400 mm relative to the long-term mean. As depicted in Figure E.3, some provinces of eastern Cuba are currently in an emergency alert due to unavailability of fresh water for agriculture, human consumption and other uses.

Climate Related Anomalies of ENSO Events In Cuba, the influence of El Niño becomes more significant in the second half of the winter. The biggest natural disaster in this season is associated with extratropical cyclone systems that form under El Niño conditions. In summer, the interrelationships between circulations over the Cuban region becomes less evident. In general, no significant relationships have been found in surface circulation. However, changes in upper air

FIGURE E.3 Consecutive Months of Drought Conditions up to April 2004. Source Special Warning Advise, Climate Centre, Institute of Meteorology. http://www.met.inf.cu

158

circulation patterns is expected to bring about an increase in vertical wind shear during El Niño years, establishing a connection between ENSO warm events and an observed decrease of the activity of tropical hurricanes in the Atlantic. Naranjo et al (2001), suggest that this is a positive impact because it reduces the hurricane risk. However, if we consider TC as one of the more important mechanism producing rainfall in the country, then the interpretation of less TC as a positive impact could be questionable. In terms of disasters, the impact of ENSO over Cuba is significant. The most well-known event associated with the 1982-83 El Niño was record number of extra-tropical cyclones that developed in the Gulf of Mexico, producing intense coastal flooding that plagued Havana, a level of flooding not witnessed since the Great Hurricane of 1926. It occurred on March 17, and flooded extensive urban areas of the city of Havana, producing severe damages to its infrastructure (Figure E.4). The impacts on agriculture were particularly significant. More than 40,000 acres of

tobacco were destroyed, while 65 per cent of the tomato crop was severely damaged. More than 1.5 million banana trees were destroyed, reducing production by an estimated 50,000 metric tons. Potato yields were also reduced by an estimated 120,000 metric tons, this translates into a loss of 25 per cent of the total production for this year. In the 1997-98 El Niño event, the social and economical implications were also severe. Again, the impacts on agriculture and other economic sectors were substantial, although they did not exhibit the severity observed during 1982-83 winter. E.3 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC

IMPACTS Climate change projections for Cuba indicate that annual mean air temperature could increase gradually reaching values of between 1.6°C and 2.5°C by the year 2100. In the case of rainfalls, some models predict a reduction in the annual amount, while others

Figure E.4. Coastal Flooding in Havana During Winter of 1993

159

predict increments. Despite uncertainties in model prediction, it is estimated that temperature increase could be substantial. Even in cases where rainfall increments are projected, there could be intensification and expansion of the aridity and drought processes. In the case of sea level, projections indicate increments in the order of 8 to 44 cm by the year 2050, and 20 to 95 cm by the year 2100. Since Cuba is an archipelago, the impacts associated with sea level rise can be considered the most important. Moreover, climate projections point to possible intensification and spatial extension of aridity, as well as a greater frequency of drought processes. In such circumstances, the potential decrease in water resources will constrain demand, delivery, and consequently all the uses of this resource, especially for food production and human consumption. The expansion of arid lands and drought is expected to have important influences in reducing the country’s forest areas, increasing exposure to forest fires and consequent loss of biodiversity. Land losses due to sea level rise, aridity and drought conditions is likely to bring about a need for substantial changes in land and production practices. Marine biotic resources could also be negatively impacted, thereby limiting their employment as a source of food for human population.

Figure E5. Present erosion problems could be exacerbated by sea level rise Sea level rise could also produce increased storm surges associated with hurricanes, leading to greater vulnerability of human settlements, particularly those located in coastal

160

zones. Specifically, human settlements located in the eastern region of the country could be seriously affected. Accordingly, it is conceivable that climate change could force large-scale evacuation or relocation from low-lying areas to higher elevations. Such evacuation or relocation exercises are likely to be very expensive in terms of financial resources, lost production time, disruption to family life, and education of children. This migratory process could also increase the vulnerability of the recipient regions, making the impacts more dramatic. An explicit quantification of the potential impacts of climate change on the Cuban socio-economic system is outside the scope of this report. However, an attempt is made in Table E.3 to summarize its likely impact on different sectors of the Cuban system. TABLE E.3 Summary of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Different Sectors Sector Potential Impacts Water Resources • Deterioration in the quality of groundwater due to the sea level rise

• Reduction in the quantity of fresh surface water Coastal zones and marine resources

• Coral bleaching • Reduction of the country surface area - some keys could be

submerged Agriculture and forestry • Substantial reduction in production, particularly irrigated crops

• Increased occurrence and distribution of crop diseases and pests • Reduction in the density of biomass • Loss in mangrove population

Human settlements and land use

• Sea level rise could increase the risk of coastal flooding in 245 human settlements

• Climate change could affect in a significant way at least 185 human settlements

• Internal migration could increase exposing receiving areas to greater vulnerability

Biodiversity and wildlife • Sea level rise could have severe impacts on already fragile coastal ecosystems

• 14 per cent of the forestry area and its associated biodiversity could be severely affected

• The biodiversity of eastern areas of Cuba could be more severely impacted relative to other areas

Human Health • The prevalence of diseases such as acute respiratory infections, viral hepatitis, acute diarrhoea and others could increase

161

E.4 CURRENT CAPACITY FOR HAZARD/DISASTER MANAGEMENT To evaluate the current capacity for disaster and hazard management in Cuba, it will be necessary to consider the structure of the National Civil Defence (NCD), as well as the organization of the system of measures to manage hazards and disasters. Accordingly, a brief discussion of how the NCD is structured and works, and the role of the Institute of Meteorology is in order. The management of disaster situations in Cuba is the responsibility of the NCD. This mandate is carried out through an instutionalized system of measures and actions. The NCD disaster management system is supported by two important legal instruments. The first is Law No. 75 for National Defence, which took effect in 1994. The second is the complementary Ordinance-Law No. 170, which spells out the System of Measures for Civil Defence (SMCD) that came into force in 1997. Possibly, the most critical element of Law No. 75 is that all the resources and activities of the country could be mobilized by the Government of the Republic of Cuba to satisfy the necessities of the national defence during exceptional situations. This provision of Law No. 75 gives the NCD the authority to command all resources (human and technical) as well as rationalize and prioritise their utilization in responding to hazards/disaster situations. The aim of the SMCD is to be proactive in order to minimize the impacts of any natural disaster or catastrophe that has the potential to cause the country significant human, economic, social and environmental losses. To this end, the SMCD regulate the following:

• The role of all state agencies, economic entities and social institutions to carry out civil defence measures;

• The organization and execution of measures to protect the population and the economy;

• The establishment of different phases of civil defence to protect population and economy; and

• The financing of plans and measures for civil defence. In the context of the SMCD, the term “disaster reduction” means the set of preventive, preparation, response and restoration activities that are deemed necessary to carry out activities designed to protect the population, the economy and the environment against damages caused by natural disasters or other catastrophes. NCD is guided directly by the President of the State Council through the Ministry of Defence, to which is attached the Headquarter of Civil Defence (HCD). The HCD is responsible for the execution of all civil defence measures, including the rules and international agreement related to civil protection, the coordination of international cooperation and support in case of disasters, the organization of the relationships and work of the ministries, organizations and institutions. The responsibilities of HCD also

162

include coordination and promotion of scientific research oriented to improve knowledge about disasters and its reductions. Naranjo, et al (2001) examined Cuba’s response system during the 1997-1998 El Niño disasters. They concluded that the principal factor behind the effective response is the existence of a centralized structure with wide participation at all levels of society. In particular, they observed that the attachment of the NCD to the general plans for military defence of the country ensures a high level of response and availability of resources (See Figure E.6). In terms of regulations, several other legal instruments facilitate preventive actions for disaster management. For example, all national and foreign investments and development plans must be compatible with civil defence (CD) requirements, that is, they do not increase vulnerabilities.

FIGURE E.6 Flowchart Showing the Functional Organization of Civil Defence in Cuba. Source: Adapted from a power presentation available in Caribbean Risk Web page

163

In addition, the HCD organize training exercises to improve disaster preparation and response at different levels of the society. Perhaps the most recognized exercise is the well-known “METEORO” that is carried out annually in preparation for the TC season. In each METEORO exercise, all provinces, municipalities and territories activate their mechanisms against catastrophe, and make a test and revision of the existing institutional plans. METEORO exercises include the participation of all people in Cuba, focussing on a broad range of simulations and activities in different areas. These include evacuation of people in high-risk zones, first aid training, street and drainage cleaning as well as others. All METEORO exercises are monitored and corrective measures applied to improve the actions and outcomes. Another outstanding aspect of the SMCD is the close connection between decision makers and the centres in charge of the country’s monitoring services. For instance, the SMCD is executed through the flow of information that guarantees exchange among different levels of decision-making. Yet another strength of the Cuban response system is the fact that the state assigned to a unique institute the task of “climate and weather monitoring”. This guarantees effective concentration of scientific effort toward the main areas concerned. The role played by the

FIGURE E.7 EXAMPLE OF THE FLOW OF INFORMATION DURING OCCURRENCE OF EL NIÑO EVENTS

164

media in developing clear perceptions about climate, weather and its anomalies, and impacts also constitutes a positive aspect of the system (see Figure E.7). In this regard, a key institution supporting the disaster management work in Cuba is the Institute of Meteorology (ISMET), whose mission is to provide quality information on weather and climate behaviour. ISMET was established in the 1960s, after the dramatic disaster of Hurricane Flora. Its more than 40 years of accumulated experience in scientific and technical work makes it ideally suited for providing high quality information on weather related disasters prevention and preparation. The strategic plan of ISMET combines research and service activities as key components of national development. The Institute has also incorporated training and professional education in its work programme to ensure future availability of human capacities to deal with climate monitoring and research. The Masters degree course in meteorology and the new university career programme in meteorology are good examples of the institutes’ capacity development strategy.

Climate Related Research and Monitoring Capacity In order to guarantee the operation of the meteorological, climate and atmospheric pollution monitoring systems, the INSMET relies on a network of 67 meteorological stations and 11 rain and air quality control stations throughout the Cuban Archipelago (See Figure E.8). These systems are complemented by information provided by the meteorological stations operated by the Institute of Civil Aeronautics of Cuba (IACC), located at airports throughout the country. In addition, meteorological and hydrological stations and rain gauges operated by the National Institute of Water Resources (INRH), the Ministry of Sugar and the Ministry of Agriculture, are integral components of the network. INSMET also operates seven meteorological radars covering the entire country, as well as a Lidar Station for measuring stratospheric aerosols, in Camagüey city.

311

312

314315

316317

318

313

325

373320

322

323375

376

327

328

330

331 332

333

335

326 338

343348

349342

337341

339

345346

347

352

353

351

350354355

357358

371372

365

359

360 379363 364 366

334368

369

321324

309

374340329

336344

378362

370361

377

319356

FIGURE E.8 Weather Meteorological Station Network of INSMET Source: Cuban National Communication to UNFCCC

165

Relative to other Caribbean nations, Cuba has in place a well structured system of research programs covering a wide spectrum of problems, oriented to the economic, technological, intellectual and cultural development of the country. At present, there are seven research programmes that are directly or indirectly related to climate change and which fall within the ambit of the National Science and Technology Programme (NSTP). For instance, there is a program oriented to the study of climate change and the evolution of the Cuban environment. This program includes a sub-program devoted to the study of variability of climate change, and another focussing on atmosphere pollution and chemistry. Other sub-programs study biodiversity, terrestrial ecosystems, agricultural ecosystems and soils, among others. Besides the NSTP, other research activities are underway in the country. These are devoted to studying the relationships between the environment and development, as well as to establish climate forecasting systems and climatic studies applied to different sectors (e.g. agriculture). To maintain the operation of the meteorological service, the government allocates annually approximately 6 MCP (million Cuban Pesos). This financial support has been quite consistent despite the difficulties that the Cuban economy has undergone and continues to undergo. However, serious limitations are being experienced in obtaining foreign currency to maintain the observation and monitoring systems. In this regard, the resources required are significantly greater than is made available and financial limitations continue to threaten the integrity of the monitoring systems, despite the best efforts of the Government. The status of the monitoring and observing systems is made worst by the economic blockade imposed by the US. Cuba’s commitment to develop the meteorological science has resulted in the implementation of several systems and forecast methods. For example, INSMET have operationalized a system for monitoring and forecasting both meteorological as well as agro-meteorological droughts. A long-term climate forecasting system also exists that incorporates predictions for ENSO phenomena. Another important system is also available for predicting the impact of climate on human health. It takes into consideration various types of human diseases and covers different temporal scales (months and seasons). There are also some new initiatives to develop prediction systems using dynamic modelling from General Circulation up to High Resolution Area Models. The availability of human resource could ensure good results in this direction. Capacity Building and Public Awareness There are many factors favouring capacity building and awareness in issues related to climate variability, climate change, and disaster management in Cuba. Prominent among these factors is the human capacity developed by the Government of Cuba since the beginning of the revolution. This human capacity means that people are more able to

166

understand simple or complex issues in environmental policy and management. The high literacy rate of the population facilitates awareness building as well as advanced training to tackle complex implementation issues (e.g., negotiating and complying with treaty obligations). Although climate change is a relatively new and complex topic, modest advances can be observed in Cuba, in the study and understanding of the different technical aspects related to this theme. On the one hand, these advances are the result of national efforts initiated at the beginning of the 1990s. On the other hand, the financial support received from different international projects has certainly enhanced the initially created capacities. However, in spite of the advances in the creation of technical capacities, the elements of education and public awareness require urgent attention. For instance, the relationship between Cuban disaster and climate change communities needs to be improved in terms of developing a common framework, inclusive of concepts, definitions and actions. Development of capacity to achieve this goal is a necessity. It is also important to find synergies with other environmental and socio-economic problems. In that sense, climate related risk management should be placed on the same agenda as sustainable economic and human development A big contribution to build current capacities in the areas of disaster management and climate change is the recent Government programme called University for All83. Under this programme, many persons in Cuba had the opportunity to improve their knowledge of the scientific basis for climate variability and climate change problems and its associated environmental, economic and social impacts. The University for All programmes could be replicated across the country and indeed the region. This innovative programme supports the development of a 42 hour course in meteorology and climatology with various modules of climate change, climate variability and extreme weather events. Another important contribution to build capacities is the aforementioned national METEORO exercise, which covers a wide range of activities and individuals. E.5 CLIMATE CHANGE CAPACITY The support received from international programs and projects such as CC:TRAIN was crucial in the development of Cuba’s technical capacities for the conduct of various studies and evaluations. Under CC:TRAIN, the National Group on Climate Change (NGCC) was created (See Figure E.8). The NGCC integrated more than a dozen experts from different organisations and institutions. The Group is being supported by three technical teams that are responsible for carrying out national studies. These technical teams are integrated by specialists from different academic, scientific and technical research institutions, as well as the productive sectors. Under the NGCC, several projects have been implemented and others are ongoing. These projects have facilitated the execution of many research and capacity building activities

83 An infinite set of TV courses on different disciplines, including environment, biotechnology, Music and art, languages (English, French, Portuguese and others), general geography, and philosophy, among others.

167

that are enabling Cuba to fulfil its commitment with the UNFCCC. The sections below provide a brief overview of some of the climate change related projects in which Cuba is participating.

E.6 ENABLING ACTIVITIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN CUBA Enabling activities have provided Cuba with several opportunities for human and technical capacity development as well as assisting the country to fulfil its UNFCC commitments. Examples include: (a) preparation of reports (Greenhouse gas National Inventory, assessment of potential mitigation options, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and actions taken to fulfil other obligation under the UNFCCC); and (b) training and workshop activities that facilitated the transfer of technology, knowledge and methodologies to carry out technical studies and evaluation. An important technical study that was undertaken is the adaptation to climate change. In 2001, Cuba summited its First National Communication to UNFCCC and the process for preparing the second National Communication report is underway. The enabling activity project has served to improve the work of the NGCC and its associated technical team, under the leadership of INSMET.

FIGURE E.9 Structure of National Climate Change Group in Cuba

168

IPCC WGIII Outreach Programme This project made an important contribution towards the dissemination and explanation of the findings of the IPCC Technical Assessment Reports and related Summary Reports, particularly those related to Working Group III (Mitigation) to key stakeholders (policy makers, industry representatives, academic experts and NGOs). The objectives of the outreach programme were to:

- Improve the understanding among key stakeholders (policy-makers, industry representatives, NGOs and academic experts) in Cuba, by disseminating and explaining the main findings of the Technical Assessment Reports (particularly WG III Reports) and related Summary Reports.

- Discuss the impact of the IPCC findings on national climate change response strategies with selected stakeholders

The outreach workshop organized by the NGCC and the Centre for World Economy Studies (CWES) facilitated the sharing of the results of IPCC GWIII with stakeholders coming from several institutions, organizations and sectors. Although most of the deliberations were focussed on climate change mitigation, the workshop provided ample opportunities for information exchanges relating to the IPCC work and the nexus between mitigation, adaptation and development. CIDA-CCCDF Project

This project was designed to build capacity and the transfer of technical knowledge that would ultimately augment Cuba’s ability to adapt and respond to the risks presented by climate change, reduce poverty and pursue sustainable development. The University of Toronto, IndEco Consultant and INSMET jointly execute the project. Among others, the objectives of this collaborative effort are to collaborate with Cuban officials to:

(iv) design and deliver, strategic planning exercises and computer-based training, education, and adaptation modules in response to Cuban technical, institutional and policy needs and priorities relating to climate change;

(v) identify key industries and/or sectors contributing to, or at risk from climate change, and facilitate Cuba’s efforts to integrate them into a strategic national climate change response initiative through workshops, education and technology transfer; and

(vi) support Cuban efforts to integrate climate change into its broader institutional, policy and national goals of sustainable development.

The experiences from this project are indeed a good example of North-South cooperation, where technical teams from each country engage in mutual exchange of knowledge. Technology is transferred through methods and tools, computing equipment is provided,

169

and best practices exchanged. The major lesson learned was the test of a very well conceived approach to facilitate the development of sectoral climate change strategies. CIDA-UNDP: Strengthen the Linkages Between Development and Climate Change

This CIDA-UNDP regional project is expected to provide a focussed evaluation of adaptation measures that could be employed in three Caribbean countries to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and extremes. To ensure that results are concrete and manageable with available resources, the evaluation will focus on the rural sector of the economy, in particular, rural agricultural communities (human settlements). The methodology developed in the UNDP-GEF Adaptation Policy Framework will be applied, supplemented by scientific analyses to better understand and articulate the climate-related risks. In this case, the initiative could be seen as South-South cooperation, incorporating the development of relationship with Spanish Caribbean speaking countries, working on CPACC or MACC projects. It is expected that the Dominican Republic will benefit from the Cuban experience and research capacity, while developing a knowledge exchange with MACC countries. In fact, Cuba is undertaking a very well conceived training program to improve the expertise of Dominican meteorologist to conduct climatic analyses and to design a monitoring system for meteorological and agro-meteorological droughts. It is expected that at the end of the project both countries could have a mapping system of the risk associated with droughts. Through this project a training course on Regional Climate Modelling was organized in Havana, Cuba for Caribbean and Central American countries. This workshop allowed participating countries to develop competency in using the PRECIS Regional Climate Model. PRECIS is a new and highly scientific tool for making projections of climate variability and vulnerability. Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba Central America, Mexico and Cuba will serve as the pilot region for elaborating and applying an Adaptation Policy Framework for preparing adaptation strategies, policies and measures. The application of this framework will demonstrate how policy for adaptation can be integrated into national sustainable development for at least three human systems: water resources, agriculture and human health. This demonstration project will build upon the Stage I Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments of the Initial National Communications of the eight participating countries of the region. In this regard, the project will prepare these countries to move onto Stage III Adaptation. As other countries meet the conditions for participation, they can adapt the framework initially developed for this region, thereby engaging in their own regionally focused initiative. The outputs of the full project will also contribute to the Second National

170

Communications to the UNFCC.

This GEF-UNPD project is now being executed in eight countries focusing on different climate hazards and economic sectors. In the case of Cuba, drought is the main hazard that will be addressed. The current and projected drought impact in eastern Cuba is the main justification for the selection.

The project will be based upon the application and adaptation of the Adaptation Policy Framework. This framework was initiated by the NCSP to assist non-Annex I Parties develop Stage II Adaptation in response to a growing need, as reported in several of UNFCCC84 and NCSP reports85. The framework will build upon the results of conventional impact studies and will draw heavily upon the experiential knowledge of countries in regard to adaptation to climate variation. It will provide a methodology for preparing the next generation of vulnerability and adaptation studies for potential inclusion into the Second National Communications of non-Annex I Parties. Key innovations of the framework are listed in the following Box E.1. *The framework recognises that systems change over time, and that current experiences need to be adjusted accordingly. **A maladaptive action is one that is contrary to adaptation; it refers to actions that tend to increase vulnerability to climate change. A maladaptive action is often adopted because it solves an immediate and urgent problem.

84 See Preliminary Report of the Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention (FCCC/SBI/2001/8)(July, 2001); Report of the Inter-regional Workshop of the Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention (FCCC/SBI/2001/INF.1)(June, 2001). 85 See NCSP thematic workshop reports on vulnerability and adaptation in 6 sub-regions (1999, 2000), www.undp.org/cc/workshop1.htm

Box E.1 Key innovations of the UNDP-GEF Adaptation Policy Framework • Greater attention to current climate vulnerability and adaptation as a departure point for the

baseline analysis; • Explicit inclusion of adaptation to climate variability and extreme events, as well as longer-

term average climate change*; • Development, testing and application of an analytical framework for strengthening adaptive

capacity to assess vulnerability and to prepare for adaptation; • Specific examination of current development activities, especially those activities that

increase vulnerability to climate variability and change, or which are maladaptive**; • Integration of adaptive strategies, policies and measures into development plans and

activities.

171

Combining some elements of this project is likely to maximize the utility of the derived results and make a better use of the available funds. This is only possible when good coordination exists and there is clear prioritisation of the activities to be implemented. In fact, the existing institutional network for climate change issues in Cuba and the well-established NGCC makes it possible to integrate the last three above-mentioned projects into the same strategy. Figure E.10 illustrates the links between the project as a format for sharing results and integrating North-South and South-South experiences. Potential Strategies for Adapting to Identified Vulnerabilities Studies carried out by several technical groups have assessed the potential impacts of climate change; these were described in previous sections. These studies also identified a number of adaptation measures for climate change and current climate variability. Most

FIGURE E.10 Graphic Representation of Project Relationships and Interactions to Maximize Utility of Results

172

of the assessments conclude that it is of paramount importance that Cuba deepens its knowledge regarding elements of climate variability, extreme events, and the magnitude of their impacts. In fact, the measures of adaptation to climate variability (are synonymous to climate related disaster management) have focused on the continuous strengthening of the institutional capacity to prevent and to act in a proactive mode. The cumulative experience demonstrates that preparedness is an appropriate strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of climate variability. The importance of capacity building was clearly demonstrated when the impacts of hurricane Flora in 1963, and of the ENSO event in 1982-83 are compared with those of hurricane Lili in 1996, and of the ENSO event in 1997-98, respectively. In the case of hurricane Flora (one of the greatest natural disasters that occurred in Cuba), the capacity to prevent and to act was very limited. However, during Lili, the level of preparedness and response was much higher and the impacts were notably less. Similar conclusions can be reached for the two ENSO events. Based on a thorough evaluation of the potential impacts of climate change in Cuba, and the possible increase of weather related disaster, several adaptation options have been determined. These adaptation options must be considered as integral components of the overall development programme of the country. The optimum adaptation strategies for Cuba should guarantee:

• Rational use and protection of water resources;

• Conservation and protection of beaches and mangrove swamp areas;

• Improvement of Cuban agriculture and the conservation and protection of forest resources;

• Appropriate employment of territorial ordering in the human settlement and land use system;

• Protection of biodiversity and wildlife and;

• Continuous improvement of the Cuban health system.

It should not come as a surprise to anyone that these strategy goals are explicitly considered within the national strategies for natural resource conservation and protection, as well as in the legislations. In fact, climate change is one, but not the only problem associated with the environment. Indeed, they are critical elements to the overall social and economic development of the country. The commitment to ensure the social and economic advancement of the population has provided the impetus for strengthening the development of several institutions directly or indirectly involved in adaptation to climate change. Additionally, given the complexity

173

and interrelationship of the strategic objectives, continuous research is required as an integral component of capacity building. In this context, the use of accumulated experience and new methods of scientific analysis is indispensable. An extremely important component of the mix is financial support for research from multilateral or bilateral mechanisms. In general, it is strategic to develop actions directed to: • Strengthen the observation systems of the different environment components,

especially those related to climatic, hydrological and oceanic variables. • Carry out new research to evaluate the impact of climate variability. The continued

development, testing and validation of climate prediction systems covering different temporal and spatial scales indispensable elements towards the elaboration of a precise and realistic early adaptation strategy for each sector.

• Continue developing the research related to climate change impact, using the new

scientific evidences on their characteristics and employing more sophisticated methods of analysis to facilitate more integrated evaluations.

E.7 CAPACITY NEEDS FOR IMPLEMENTING IDENTIFIED STRATEGIES Despite the progress recorded in issues related to climate change and disaster management in Cuba, substantial limitations remain that must be overcome before the identified strategies can be successfully implemented. In this regard, existing capacity needs to be maintained and new capacity created in the following areas to overcome the existing gaps.

• Climate Monitoring, observing and telecommunications systems improvements • Strengthening of the scientific knowledge by research activities on climate change

and climate variability • Increasing the activities relating to public education and awareness

Improving national and local capacities to obtain a reliable, efficient and sustainable climate monitoring and observing system is a paramount objective, towards improved understanding of several processes related to climate induced disasters. This in turn reinforces the activities oriented to improve preparedness before disasters. Improvement of the observing systems means that the society will be more prepared to respond now, and in the future, to extreme climatic events. The lack of financial resources for the modernization of weather stations and meteorological radars severely constrains our response capacity to Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes and other severe weather events. Another area of capacity building is improvement in telecommunications capacity, to ensure that the information generated can be effectively and promptly communicated in the form of actions to those who need it to make informed decisions prior to extreme

174

events. The strengthening of the scientific knowledge by research activities pertaining to climate change and climate variability is also important as a way to reach the best scientific knowledge of future climatic conditions. The existence of this knowledge, together with an adequate understanding of current climate behaviour, can permit a better selection and prioritisation of adaptation options, including those from past experiences. It should be noted that adaptation to climate change is a continuous process, where the best practices are utilized to improve future practices. Future and current international and regional initiatives and programmes focused on climate change, global changes and disaster mitigation offer the opportunity to develop regional activities. The best approach is to develop a regional framework, where the regional capacity could be built starting with the strengthened capacity of each country. This idea promotes the unification of technical country capacities in order to find common solutions. Addressing the issue of awareness and capacity building, several specific actions have been identified to increase and improve adaptation capacity. In a general sense, the actions could be summarized as the need for a capacity building and awareness programme covering the following objectives: • Strengthen the work linkages with different mass media to develop environmental

education and popularisation programmes for achieving greater public awareness. • Promote and address the themes on climate change issues and their effects within the

educational programmes of the national education system. • Continue incorporating the topics related to climate change within the branch

programs on science and technology. • Elaborate didactic, scientific and technical materials, and others of a popular sort, that

bring the topic of climate change closer to daily reality. • Strengthen the institutional capacities that improve the management of environmental

education with regard to these topics. • Establish a network of centres that guarantee public access to the information on the

topic of climate change and its effects, the mitigation options and other types of information relating to the UNFCCC implementation process at global, regional or national levels.

• Foster and promote the development of educational projects, propitiating the exchange of national and international experiences related to climate change.

• Strengthen and widen exchanges with NGOs that are related to the environment. • Organise systematic workshops with the objective of informing or updating decision-

makers, mass media and other sectors of the Cuban society on the national results, as well as on the current and future UNFCCC implementation process in the country.

175

• Organise national public awareness campaigns oriented to different sectors.

REFERENCES Alfonso, A., (1995): Tormentas Locales severas: Tendencias recientes. Instituto de Meteorología, Cuba, 12 pp.

Alfonso, A., (2000): Climatología de las Tormentas Locales Severas, Ediotial Academia, La Habana, Cuba.

Cárdenas, P. A. y L. R. Naranjo, (1996): Eventos El Niño-Oscilación del Sur: Impactos sobre los elementos climáticos y del tiempo. Instituto de Meteorología, Cuba, 37 pp. Centella A., L. Naranjo, L. Paz, P. Cárdenas, B. Lapinel, M. Ballester, R. Pérez, A. Alfonso, C. González, M. Limia, M. Sosa, (1997): Variaciones y cambios del clima en Cuba. Informe Técnico. Centro Nacional del Clima, Instituto de Meteorología. La Habana, Cuba, 58 pp. IPCC, (2001): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. dai, K. Maskel and C. A. Johnson (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp. Limia M., R. Vega, R. Perez and J. Durand, (2000): Climatología de los ciclones tropicales que han afectado a Cuba (1799-1998), Reporte Científico, Instituto de Meteorología, La Habana, Cuba, 36 pp. Naranjo L. y A. Centella, (1997): Variaciones Interanuales de los Campos Meteorológicos en el Mar Caribe y el Golfo de Mexico. 1ra Parte: Presión a nivel del Mar y alturas en 500 hPa. Instituto de Meteorología 52 pp. Naranjo, L., P. Cárdenas, A. Centella, O. Solano, Y. Rodríguez, A. Pérez, (2001):

176

Country case study: Impacts and responses to the 1997-98 El Niño event pages 67-77, in Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons learned from the 1997-98 El Niño. Michael H. Glantz (ed). New York, USA. ONE, (1998): Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1996, 334 pp. Trenberth K.E. and D. J. Shea, (1997): Atmospheric Circulation Changes and links to change in rainfall and drought. A.M.S. Seventh Conference on Climate Variations, Long Beach C.A.

1

APPENDIX F

TERMS OF REFERENCE

CARIBBEAN RISK MANAGEMENT/VULNERABILITY REDUCTION INITIATIVE

NEEDS ASSESSMENT FOR CAPACITY BUILDING IN

RISK MANAGEMENT AND VULNERABILITY REDUCTION

Background and Context: Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal states of the Caribbean region are “front line” states vulnerable to the adverse risks and effects of global climate change and climate variability. Additionally, these countries are vulnerable to natural hazards like tropical storms, hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic activity, as well as manmade hazards such as flooding. Climate change that scientists attribute to the ongoing emission of certain gases into the atmosphere is anticipated, based on computer models, to have serious negative impacts on the region. These states, according to the (IPCC 2001), would suffer most from the adverse effects of global climate change and environmentally related natural disasters such as sea-level rise and coastal zone inundation which threaten their very existence. Paradoxically, these states are among the lowest contributors to the problem in terms of low per-capita and aggregate greenhouse gas emissions. The region’s high level of vulnerability is based on its geographic location, the relatively small size of the islands, the nature of the economy, and a high level of external dependence for food and energy. Reducing vulnerability (or, based on the UNFCC language, Adaptation) to climate change is a very important issue for Caribbean countries. It is important to acknowledge, at the outset, the work done by the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Project (CPACC) that was funded and implemented by the GEF-World Bank, and executed by the OAS in partnership with UWICED. As a follow up to CPACC, the countries of the region submitted a project proposal to the GEF for further work on adaptation. This led to the development of the project entitled “ Caribbean – Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change,” the PDF-B version of which is currently being implemented. The full-scale project, which was subsequently approved by the GEF Council in December 2001, will be implemented during the period July 2002-2007. Over the decade of the 1990’s, natural disasters across the region in the form of hurricanes, tropical storms, volcanic activity and flooding, drove property insurance to new heights where many middle-class working families can no longer afford property insurance. The cost of natural disasters, which has been increasing over the decade of the 90’s, represents a significant obstacle to socio-economic development. Oftentimes, funds earmarked for social investments have to be diverted to supplement loan funds to address mitigation. The servicing of these debts also represents future detour of investment funds, and therefore, seen in this perspective, a lot more attention needs to be focused on disaster risk management.

2

As documented in the IPCC (2001) report, the physical manifestation of climate change will be more frequent with stronger hurricanes and tropical storms and greater incidences of floods. It means that governments, as part of their disaster prevention and management policies, need to include climate change in the planning process. Current Proposal: This project seeks, first, to build on the work done in the region on adaptation to climate change and disaster risk assessment by conducting a needs assessment aimed at identifying gaps and strengthening capacities related to adaptation to disaster risk. The project will address the linkages between adaptation needs for climate change and existing documented experiences in disaster risk management in the region at the national and regional levels. It will take into account relevant existing projects of the GEF and those managed by UNDP (such as CAR/02/002), the draft UNDP/GEF Adaptation Policy Framework, which will be tested in selected countries of the Central American region. Secondly, the project seeks to review the state of disaster preparedness (prevention, response and mitigation) to identify the strengths and weaknesses and existing capacity versus what is considered necessary to minimize vulnerability to increased risk of natural disasters projected to accompany climate change. In this regard, sources of information for this aspect of the project will be obtained from relevant international, regional and national organizations, project documents, established literature reviews and the views of relevant regional and national experts in the field of adaptation to climate change. This project will focus on the following countries: Antigua and Barbuda, Cuba, Dominica, and Grenada. Main Activities: The principal output of the project will be the preparation of a Needs Assessment Report detailing capacity building needs for reducing vulnerability to existing natural hazards as well as those hazards projected to accompany climate change and sea level rise in the countries listed above. The Assessment will: • Review current or planned programmes and/or initiatives for reducing

vulnerabilities in both areas (climate change, and disaster management), and identify gaps and needs (capacity, institutional, policy and technical) associated with their implementation.

• Identify opportunities for strengthening of appropriate capacity building efforts focused on risk management associated with climate change and disasters risk management and response.

• Recommend, where possible, strategies and policies for the region, with a particular focus on sectoral areas that have not been adequately considered within existing and planned projects.

• Identify opportunities for cooperation and collaboration within the region, in particular efforts that operationalise such opportunities (e.g., training, application of best practices, and the implementation of the regional climate change centre).

3

APPENDIX G

DOCUMENTARY SOURCES Antigua and Barbuda Initial National Communications to the UNFCCC. Office of the

Prime Minister. 2001. Antigua and Barbuda Preliminary Census Report 2001, Department of Statistics,

Ministry of Planning and Implementation. Antigua Binger, Albert, “Capacity Development Initiative. Country Capacity Development

Needs and Priorities: Report for Small Island States”. GEF/UNDP. September 2000.

Human Development Report 2003. Millennium Development Goals: A Compact

Among Nations to End Human Poverty. UNDP. New York. Oxford University Press 2003

Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) (2003). Background to

Seminar on Climate Change and Severe Weather Events in Asia and the Caribbean, Grand Barbados Beach Resort, Carlisle Bay, Barbados, 24-25 July, 2003.

Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA). Status of Disaster

Management in the Caribbean. Presentation to UNDP Caribbean Regional Seminar on the use of Information Technology in Comprehensive Disaster Management, May 29-31, Ocho Rios, Jamaica.

Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) (Updated September 2002)

Matrix of Disaster Management Strategies for CDERA Participating States (2001 – 2005).

Caribbean Hazard Mitigation Capacity Building Program (CHAMP). Various project

documentation. Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment.

Government of Antigua and Barbuda Ministry of Planning/UNEP. 1997. Disaster Management Facility, World Bank. Disaster Risk Management Working Paper

Series No. 2 (2001). Dominica: National Disasters and Economic Development in a Small Island State.

Disaster Prevention Sector Facility. Inter-American Development Bank. February 2001. Dominica Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Programme (2001). Report

on Dominica’s Institutional Capacity for Comprehensive Disaster Management. Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. Economic and Financial Review. Volume 22. Number

3. September 2002

4

Government of Dominica (2001). Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Government of Dominica (2002). Dominica National Climate Change Adaptation

Policy. Government of Dominica (1996). National Disaster Plan Government of Grenada (2000). First National Communication on Climate Change. Gray, Calvin, “ Regional Meteorology and Hurricanes” in “Climatic Change in the Inter

Americas Sea”, ed. G Maul, UNEP, 1993 Survey of the Strengths, Weaknesses and Projects for Disaster management in ACS

countries”. Association of Caribbean States. Port-of-Spain, Trinidad. November 2000.

Grenada Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Project (2000). Project

Appraisal Document. Grenada National Emergency Relief Organisation – Various Documentation Inter-

governmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press. UK. 2001.

Inter-governmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC). Climate Change 2001: Synthesis.

R T Watson (editor). 2001. IPCC Secretariat. Geneva. International Monetary Fund (2003). First Review under the Standby Arrangement and

Requests for Extension of the Agreement and for Waiver of Performance Criteria, Government of Dominica.

International Monetary Fund (2002). IMF Country Report 02/224, Dominica: Statistical

Appendix. International Monetary Fund (2003). IMF Country Report 03/26, Grenada: Statistical

Appendix. Jackson, Ivor. Drought Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Antigua and Barbuda:

Post-Georges Disaster Mitigation Project in Antigua & Barbuda and St. Kitts & Nevis. April 2001.OAS.Washington

Maskrey, Andrew. “Disaster Early Warning Systems in Antigua and Barbuda: An

Assessment of Disaster Early Warning Systems in Antigua and Barbuda and an Action Plan for Enhancing Capabilities”. GTZ 1997. Unpublished.

National Communications Support Programme Adaptation Policy Framework: A Guide For Policies To Facilitate Adaptation To Climate Change. UNDP/GEF.New York. 2003. OECS Human Development Report 2002: Building competitiveness in the face of

vulnerability. OECS Secretariat, St. Lucia. 2002.

5

Pan American Health Organisation (2002). Emergencies and Disasters in Drinking Water Supply and Sewerage Systems: Guidelines for Effective Response.

Riley, Liz (2003). Climate Change and Disaster Management. Presentation to Seminar

on Climate Change and Severe Weather Events in Asia and the Caribbean, Grand Barbados Beach Resort, Carlisle Bay, Barbados, 24-25 July, 2003.

Trotz, Neville (Dr.) (2003). Risk Management and Climate Change 1. Presentation to


Trotz, Neville (Dr.) (2003). Risk Management and Climate Change 2. Presentation to


United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Strengthening National Capacities for

Disaster Reduction and Recovery – the role of UNDP. UNDP Expert Group Meeting on Integrating Disaster Reduction with Adaptation to

Climate Change, Havana, June 19-21, 2002:DRAFT SUMMARY .A Risk Management Approach to Disaster Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change. Alan Lavell. Editor. UNDP, Havana. 2002.

6

APPENDIX H

PERSONS CONSULTED ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Mr. Brian Challenger Mr Philmore Mullins Deputy Director, National Office of Disaster Services Mr Lionel Michael Chief Environmental Health Officer, Ministry of Health Ambassador Daven Joseph Director Of Planning. Ministry of Planning and

Implementation Diann Black-Layne Chief Environment Officer, Environment Division,

Ministry of Tourism and Environment Patrick Jeremiah Director of Meteorological Services, VC Bird

International Airport Yvo Watkins Insurance Agent, Anjo Insurance Agency

DOMINICA Etienne, Cheryl Meteorological Officer Guiste, Collin National Climate Change Coordinator Magloire, Andrew Chief Fisheries Officer Magloire, Winston Technical officer, Projects and Services, Ministry of

Agriculture Pascall, Fitzroy Senior Meteorological Officer (Ag.) Shillingford, Cecil National Disaster Coordinator Shillingford-Tonge, Juliet Senior Physical Planner BARBADOS Layne Chester Director Meteorological Services Thomas Judi Director Central Emergency relief organisation Mwansa John Barbados Water Authority Riley Liz Carribbean Disater and Relife Agency (CDERA) GRENADA

7

John, Nigel Assistant Project Coordinator, Grenada Emergency

Recovery and Disaster Management Project McBarnette, Francis Director, Organisation of American States Office in

Grenada McIntrye, Sylvan National Disaster Coordinator Peters, John Manager, Meteorological Office, Grenada Airport

Authority CUBA

8

APPENDIX I

MONTHLY & YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE – V.C. BIRD INTERNATIONAL

AIRPORT ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

MONTHLY AND YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR

THE METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE V . C. BIRD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

YEARJAN FEB MARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPTOCT NOVDECTOTALTOTAL MM

1960 2.43 2.86 1.76 0.85 1.09 1.574.063.04 4.15 2.79 3.86 4.66 33.12 841.2

1961 1.01 2.42 1.28 1.38 1.85 3.673.233.53 1.18 4.19 5.50 3.73 32.97 837.4

1962 6.29 0.97 0.91 4.34 3.88 4.732.798.17 7.94 1.87 5.07 1.42 48.38 1228.9

1963 3.85 0.94 0.91 1.28 3.37 2.299.613.24 3.88 7.76 6.24 1.47 44.84 1138.9

1964 1.89 1.31 1.02 6.32 4.95 1.303.223.57 3.89 2.17 1.74 2.27 33.65 854.7

1965 4.38 0.54 1.22 1.00 4.35 1.833.302.54 3.87 2.42 7.74 3.18 36.37 923.8

1966 0.82 0.86 1.19 1.83 1.74 0.585.342.00 3.10 3.80 3.14 3.12 27.52 699.0

1967 1.56 0.91 4.27 0.96 1.52 2.194.351.34 3.49 5.74 1.15 1.66 29.14 740.2

1968 1.44 0.44 0.68 2.40 2.21 2.310.992.14 1.14 2.01 4.32 5.01 25.09 637.3

1969 2.99 1.13 1.16 3.72 14.01 1.965.132.68 3.69 6.75 5.54 1.03 49.79 1264.7

1970 1.10 0.61 0.57 3.57 15.19 7.606.914.43 1.74 7.12 7.18 8.70 64.72 1643.9

1971 2.86 2.73 1.00 2.43 3.52 0.642.194.81 5.57 5.32 1.53 8.59 41.19 1046.2

1972 2.75 1.21 5.26 3.01 2.18 1.422.664.00 2.96 7.04 1.84 4.90 38.83 986.3

1973 1.64 1.39 0.85 0.65 0.97 1.411.654.01 6.55 3.74 1.50 1.62 25.98 659.9

1974 4.49 0.98 1.28 0.91 1.88 0.230.566.92 11.196.60 15.511.78 52.33 1329.2

1975 3.57 0.51 0.78 1.26 2.99 0.791.393.45 5.71 4.84 5.63 5.57 36.49 926.8

1976 1.76 3.03 2.11 0.73 0.89 1.340.755.37 5.23 6.26 5.87 2.44 36.78 934.2

1977 0.80 0.97 0.91 1.69 1.44 0.951.107.21 5.32 6.52 9.36 2.09 38.44 976.4

1978 1.07 1.20 2.98 4.65 6.99 1.454.255.64 1.09 14.063.28 2.63 49.29 1252.0

1979 1.88 0.54 1.95 2.63 13.30 3.384.463.15 14.286.74 9.97 5.28 67.29 1709.2

1980 1.91 1.97 0.65 0.48 1.63 2.743.912.76 3.05 7.30 1.93 3.82 32.15 816.6

1981 1.81 2.84 2.31 7.82 5.48 1.966.123.08 7.87 5.34 5.55 6.94 57.12 1450.8

9

1982 2.49 4.35 1.13 4.19 4.96 0.984.283.18 1.89 5.92 7.21 4.36 43.24 1098.3

1983 1.22 0.39 1.13 0.78 3.36 1.782.523.56 2.85 2.15 0.89 1.68 22.31 566.7

1984 2.98 1.12 2.38 0.84 2.90 1.912.011.34 8.54 8.10 9.74 3.00 45.86 1164.8

1985 1.62 1.75 7.05 3.58 0.96 0.313.703.69 7.34 6.98 7.43 2.23 46.64 1184.7

1986 1.38 0.79 1.82 4.76 4.42 0.844.062.10 1.87 0.76 9.77 2.55 35.12 892.0

1987 1.70 0.72 2.24 1.02 18.10 2.711.973.22 5.98 5.31 9.67 3.59 56.23 1428.2

1988 2.65 1.88 3.77 1.64 2.44 1.326.9510.957.67 4.54 3.55 4.46 51.82 1316.2

1989 2.09 1.85 1.98 1.54 1.20 3.041.635.28 11.646.11 4.22 1.54 43.32 1100.3

1990 1.69 1.80 2.20 5.78 2.94 2.802.312.56 1.83 9.42 3.52 3.61 40.46 1027.7

1991 1.76 3.10 0.64 2.63 2.24 2.223.512.13 4.59 0.49 5.66 1.52 30.49 774.4

1992 2.69 1.13 1.55 6.80 6.16 1.632.963.67 4.38 4.21 7.11 4.93 47.22 1199.4

1993 2.54 0.51 1.38 4.24 12.79 1.915.501.94 2.23 2.38 1.47 2.81 39.70 1008.4

1994 1.72 1.20 1.46 0.59 1.18 1.671.741.41 9.64 2.78 4.73 2.37 30.49 774.4

1995 0.79 2.23 1.48 3.12 2.32 0.611.9310.3616.156.30 2.61 2.37 50.27 1276.9

1996 2.06 1.66 0.87 1.23 2.00 4.215.273.81 2.60 3.44 3.18 5.71 36.04 915.4

1997 2.92 2.10 0.91 1.65 2.21 1.642.472.54 3.37 3.23 1.69 1.78 25.51 698.8

1998 5.60 1.72 1.81 3.14 1.97 2.542.326.07 7.84 6.91 4.55 6.20 50.67 1287.0

1999 2.85 1.78 0.30 3.27 3.10 4.944.112.44 4.45 8.54 23.152.98 62.01 1575.1

2000 2.59 1.59 0.82 4.20 1.51 0.871.623.11 8.19 1.10 3.62 1.75 30.97 786.6

AVG. 2.34 1.53 1.79 2.61 4.25 2.013.403.97 5.32 5.11 5.14 3.53 41.00 1041.3

final - university of the west indies · for disaster management and ... national office of...

Documents