final draft duerr

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The Trump Card: How Donald Trump Rose to, and Has Remained at, the Top of the GOP Polls

Brandon Gerard

Dr. Glen Duerr

Research in Political Science

14 April 2016

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Introduction

As Donald Trump descended the stairs from his plane onto the tarmac, the sounds of

Midnight Odyssey’s “Secrets & Solitude” blared over the speaker system. When the music

finally died down, he was greeted with the same cheers and chants one generally thinks as

reserved for rock stars or championship-winning sports teams. Devoid of context, the idea that

this raucous scene would be a part of the political process does not seem feasible. The American

political process is generally seen as a calm and respectable, if slow, process.

The presidential candidacy of Donald Trump has coincided with a tumultuous time in the

Republican Party. He announced his candidacy on June 16, 2015, and by July 20, Trump was

leading in the GOP polls. According to polling aggregation by RealClearPolitics, from July 20,

Trump only relinquished control of the top spot in the polls for three days at the beginning of

November to Ben Carson, who has now dropped out of the race (RealClearPolitics - Election

2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination.). As of this writing, Trump has won 19 of the

32 primaries and leads the field with 746 delegates, compared to Cruz and Kasich, who have

538J delegates and 145 delegates, respectively (“2016 Election Center”).

How has Trump been so overwhelmingly successful in the Republican presidential

nomination process? There are three basic ideas that try to explain Trump’s rise. The framework

closely follows the work done by Nate Silver in his article “Three Theories of Donald Trump’s

Rise.” The first school of thought is that the success is a result of Trump having reached a large

but widely ignored segment of the population with his rhetoric. The second school is that his

overwhelming percentage of media coverage has lead to his lead in the polls. Finally, there is the

theory that his success has arisen from a lack of consensus among the elites in the party as to

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which candidate to endorse, creating a power vacuum. This paper argues that Donald Trump’s

success cannot be attributed to only one of these schools of thought, but that his rise is a result of

an overlap between all three schools.

Literature Review

The campaign of Donald Trump has been a topic that has given pundits and political

commentators much to discuss. From the beginning of his campaign, almost every political

expert claimed that his campaign would not be successful long-term and that his poll numbers

would drop drastically. In a USA Today article written the day after Trump announced he was

running, Nathan Gonzalez, editor of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, said "It's a big

headache for the Republican Party . . . Donald Trump is not going to be the Republican nominee

for president. Any time that he consumes on the debate stage and in the media is time he's taking

away from a legitimate contender” (Page, 2015). However, Trump has been at or near the top of

the Republican polls from very early on in his candidacy. The work done by scholars,

statisticians, and reporters reveals three main schools of thought as to how Trump has managed

to have such overwhelming success to this point.

I. Trump’s Support Is Based on His Popularity Among Voters

One school of thought surrounding Trump’s success is that there is a shift in the voting

block of the Republican party towards a candidate like Trump, who exudes “populism, nativism

and anti-elite resentment,” or a “populist revolt” (Silver, "Three Theories", 2016). As Nate Silver,

statistician and founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, says, “this view underlies most of

the mainstream coverage of Trump’s campaign. (It’s almost never stated as a theory; instead, it’s

usually taken to be self-evident that Trump’s polls are evidence of his profound popularity

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among Republicans.)” (Silver, “Three Theories”, 2016). As such, most of the literature that exists

on the issue surrounds this idea.

The aspects of this populist revolt Silver mentions are “an aroused ‘radical center’

alienated from ‘politics as usual’; [and] economic anxiety” (Tannenhaus, 2016). This harkens

back to the time of Joseph McCarthy, wherein he became the leader of an “unrecognized third

party” with “fear of ‘enemies within,’ hatred of foreign nations and their governments, the belief

that the American military can dominate singly with its missiles and bombers” (Tannenhaus,

2016). There was a feeling of betrayal from the leader of the Republican party at the time,

President Eisenhower, for not rolling the New Deal back. As Tannanhaus says, “Liberals might

be the originators of these offenses, but the GOP had failed to stop them and so was

complicit” (2016). This unrecognized “third party” is one of the forces driving the success of

Trump.

Trump has been able to speak to many of the fears of working class voters. His positions

on how to handle some of the crises that many on the right view to be the biggest issues of this

election seem to resonate very well with a portion of Republican voters. His proposal to

temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States, for example, garnered support from

nearly 60% of Republicans in a mid-December survey from ABC News and the Washington Post

(Gass, 2015). Additionally, a mid-August survey from Rasmussen Reports showed that 70% of

Republican voters supported Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the Mexican border to

combat illegal immigration (“Voters Want To Build A Wall” 2015).

Another fear of conservatives that Trump has addressed recently is the national debt.

According to a poll done by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 92% of Republicans believe that

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candidates should make the debt a larger part of their platforms (“Poll: Voters Want,” 2016).

Trump has discussed the national debt, making the claim that he would be able to completely

erase the nation’s debt in two terms. Trump, in his usual fashion, did not give much detail. He

said that he would renegotiate trade deals that would facilitate economic growth, specifically

with the Chinese, that would garner the United States $505 billion in trade this year. (Diamond,

2016)

Republican voters seem to be increasingly against an establishment candidate. According

to an Associated Press/GfK survey from October 2015, 77% of Republican voters supported an

outsider candidate over someone with Washington experience. The same survey showed that

Republicans preferred a candidate with “private sector leadership experience over experience

holding elected office,” with 76% of respondents stating that preference (Peoples and Swanson,

2015).

Additionally, this school of thought covers the theories that Trump’s support is coming

from middle-class white men who are upset with what they perceive to be their declining place in

society, those who perceive a sort of “reverse discrimination,” and those who may simply be

racists. While it can be debated whether Trump is explicitly attempting to appeal to racists, it is

clear that he is the candidate that racists find the most attractive (Bartlett, 2016). In addition to

Trump’s calls to ban Muslims and to build a wall of the Mexican border, he has also questioned

President Obama’s citizenship, as well as attacking Ted Cruz based on his Canadian birth

(Bartlett, 2016). It is unlikely that most of the white people who feel they are being discriminated

against are actually racists, but rather that they think they are “victims of a system that does not

care about their concerns” (Bartlett, 2016).

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For this group of middle class white men, they see “competing demographic groups as

the agents of their economic insecurity . . . Trump did not ‘convert’ their economic anxiety into

xenophobia and racial resentment. Rather, from their perspective, he correctly identified the roots

of their economic anxiety” (Roberts, 2015). As Bernie Sanders said,

Many of Trump's supporters are working-class people and they're angry, and

they're angry because they're working longer hours for lower wages, they're angry

because their jobs have left this country and gone to China or other low-wage

countries, they're angry because they can't afford to send their kids to college so

they can't retire with dignity. What Trump has done with some success is taken

that anger, taken those fears which are legitimate and converted them into anger

against Mexicans, anger against Muslims . . .” (Roberts, 2015).

These people are not worried about losing their economic and cultural power, but rather they fear

that the America they know is being replaced by one in which they do not belong. ( R o b e r t s ,

2015)

Trump has been able to succeed despite saying many things that would decimate the

candidacy of almost any other candidate. Some examples of these outlandish statement include

his comments about Mexican immigrants, calling some “rapists” and accusing other of bringing

drugs and crime(“Trump Stands By Statements,” 2015); his comments about women, using the

terms “fat pig,” “dog,” and “slob” (Farley, 2015); his mocking of a disabled reporter (DelReal,

2015); or avoiding discussions on topics that most conservative voters feel are crucial to a

candidacy, such as talking about freedom and liberty or defending the Constitution (Tannenhaus,

2016; Lowry and Ponnuru, 2015). One aspect of his success is that voters perceive that the

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culture of political correctness does not hold sway over him. Another aspect of his dismissal of

political correctness is the topic of immigration. Trump talking about immigration exudes a

certain “braggadocio” that makes him seem less like most politicians, and thus more credible and

plausible (Lowry and Ponnuru, 2015).

In many ways, Trump can be seen as the antithesis of the establishment. He is the

opposite of Mitch McConnell. McConnell is “the ultimate insider and an institutionalist . . .

circumspect, thoughtful, well informed . . . and a quiet man.” Trump, on the other hand is the

opposite, but “his contempt for every political piety, his ignorance of the political process and

policy, and his impolitic statements are a powerful credential. They certainly beat having

successfully governed anything” (Lowry and Ponnuru, 2015). Trump’s supporters see him as the

quintessential outsider and a man who is honest with them.

II. Trump’s Success Reflects an Overwhelming Media Presence

Another theory from Nate Silver is that Trump’s standings in the polls are simply

reflective of the media coverage he is receiving (“Three Theories”, 2016). The idea here is that

there is a positive correlation between a candidate’s share of the media coverage and their

success in the polls. This has, historically, been almost a one-to-one ratio, wherein a candidate

would poll at roughly the same number as the percentage of media coverage that candidate was

receiving (Silver, “Trump Boom”, 2016). However if this theory holds true, there is a risk for a

candidate like Trump who relies on media coverage to begin to struggle in the polls if their

media coverage begins to die down. (Silver, “Trump Boom”, 2016)

One way Donald Trump has been able to dominate media coverage so overwhelmingly is

through his inflammatory and controversial statements. Trump is what is colloquially known as a

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“troll,” which can be defined as “a person who sows discord … by starting arguments or

upsetting people … with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or

of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion” (Silver, “Donald Trump”, 2015). To trolls,

any attention, even negative attention, is better than no attention at all. Another way to phrase

this is the saying “there is no such thing as bad press.” In fact, negative attention that these kinds

of people receive can be used by them to create a narrative that people are out to get them and

that they are a victim.

Trump has exemplified this description many times, potentially the worst time being his

insulting of John McCain by calling into question his war hero status. Trump stated at the time

that McCain was only considered a war hero because he was captured, following that statement

by saying, “I like people who weren’t captured.” After the event, Trump denied making that

statement, telling members of the press, “If somebody’s a prisoner, I consider them a war hero.”

This attack specifically had the potential to upset and divide those on his own side, as opposed to

many of his other attacks wherein people may have gotten upset, but not been divided amongst

themselves. When Trump originally made this claim at the Family Leadership Summit, he was

met with a smattering of boos, followed by tweets from other presidential candidates calling him

out and even calling for him to drop out of the race completely. (Schreckinger, 2015)

A more recent example of Trump’s divisive comments would be his comments on

abortion near the end of March. When asked if there should be some sort of punishment to go

along with a law outlawing abortion, Trump agreed. When further pressed if there should be

punishment for the the woman who has the abortion, Trump answered in the affirmative, saying

“There has to be some form.” This comment elicited criticism from both sides of the political

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spectrum. On the conservative side, Jeanne Mancini, the president of the March for Life

Education and Defense Fund, spoke out, saying, “Mr. Trump’s comment today is completely out

of touch with the pro-life movement and even more with women who have chosen such a sad

thing as abortion . . . No pro-lifer would ever want to punish a woman who has chosen abortion.”

From the liberal side of the political spectrum, NARAL Pro-Choice America issued a statement

saying, “Not only is this an unhinged position far from where the American people are, but it is

sure to endanger women were he to become president.” While Trump has since attempted to

rectify the issue by releasing a new statement that he does not believe that women who have

abortions should ever be punished, the news cycle nonetheless used the comments as fodder.

(Hafner and Johnson, 2016)

Trolls are adept at exploitation of media processes, and Trump is no different. One way

Trump can exploit the media is by forcing a feedback loop. The media takes reporting cues from

who the public is interested in, which is influenced by how much the media reports on different

candidates. Trump uses this loop with his statements that, while inflammatory, contain just

enough truth to keep up his image “as genuine and honest, one of the few politicians who don’t

lie to them, even if his comments are not fully true” (Schwartzman and Johnson, 2015). These

are the statements that cause a media uproar, wherein it is predicted his campaign is over, yet

Trump refuses to back down.

As long as Trump can keep this feedback loop continuing, his polling success in the

primary season seems likely to continue. This is based largely on the concept that polling

numbers largely can be predicted by the share of media coverage a particular candidate enjoys in

a particular election cycle. However, due to the historical failures of media-driven candidates

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combined with the high unfavorable ratings Trump possesses, either a plateau or a drop in poll

numbers are to be expected (Silver, “Donald Trump”, 2015). The general election, however, is

significantly different. According to polling aggregation by RealClearPolitics, Trump would

struggle against both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, wherein Trump trails the Democratic

candidate by 10.6 and 16.5 points, respectively (“Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs.

Clinton”, “Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Sanders”). This problem is exacerbated if

exit polls after the Wisconsin primary are at all indicative of sentiment around the country. When

voters were asked how they would vote in November if Trump was the Republican nominee,

only 61% of respondents said they would vote for him. The rest of the responses were split

between 18% saying they would vote for a third party, 10% saying they would cast a vote for

Clinton, and 8% saying they simply would not vote (“1 in 3 GOP Voters,” 2016).

One aspect of the Trump media campaign is the excess media coverage over the polling

numbers. As of mid-December, Trump’s share of the media coverage was 54%, whereas his poll

numbers were roughly 32%. This gave him a 22% media coverage excess. Historically, this has

not been good for candidates. Republican Rick Perry in 2012 and Douglas Wilder, 1991

Democratic candidate, are two candidates whose campaigns suffered in spite of this media

excess. However, Howard Dean, Democratic candidate in 2004, also fell victim to media excess.

He had a 19% media excess as he stood out from a “bland field” of Democratic candidates, but

his numbers faltered going into Iowa, where he finished third. Afterwards, the media turned on

his campaign, greatly hurting his national stock. (Silver, “Trump Boom”, 2015)

This is not to say that excess media is necessarily destructive. Regression analyses show

that the total effect of media coverage is overall neutral when controlling for percentage of

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primary vote. However, excess media coverage can be indicative of a volatile candidate that may

be difficult to predict when voting does happen. In other words, “a higher share of media

coverage is correlated with a higher error in predicting a candidate’s eventual vote

share.” (Silver, “Trump Boom”, 2015)

One interesting aspect of media coverage and poll ratings is how they interact with

favorability ratings. If a candidate is able to increase their media coverage, even at the cost of

favorability ratings, their poll numbers may rise. This was shown during the first half of

December with Trump, as he proposed banning Muslims from entering the United States, his

share of media coverage jumped from 54% to 70% of the coverage. According to a linear

regression that uses favorability ratings and media coverage to predict a candidate’s poll

numbers, that jump in media coverage was worth around eight percentage points in the polls,

which is almost exactly how far Trump jumped from the beginning of December to the middle of

December. (Silver, “Trump Boom”, 2015)

The major question surrounding this theory is whether it is possible to sustain such

success moving forward, as the field narrows and candidates, by sheer force of necessity due to

Trump’s overwhelming media presence, begin to gain ground in the percentage of media

coverage (Silver, “Trump Boom”, 2015). Trump is well versed in the media and may very well

be able to continue his dominance in the media and the polls. As Trump said in his book The Art

of the Deal, “. . . [the press] is alway hungry for a good story, and the more sensational the

better” (Manheim, 2015). He ensures his newsworthiness with his brashness and unpredictability.

What may help him the most in his quest for media coverage is that he is almost entirely self-

funding his campaign, and as such, does not have to worry about pleasing those who contribute

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to his campaign. Additionally, what might be one of his biggest assets moving forward, Trump

has said that as the race progresses and the field narrows, he will “become less

divisive” (Manhein, 2015).

While the percentage of Trump’s media coverage as compared to other candidates is

impressive, his percentage of all political coverage since his announcement is even more

spectacular. Using the news aggregator website memeorandum.com and a spreadsheet organized

by FiveThirtyEight using information that they had compiled through memeorandum, a

frequency table was organized of the news coverage from June 16, 2015, through April 9, 2016

(Silver “How Trump,” Memeorandum). This was done by taking the top political news story of

each day at noon of that day and categorizing it as non-campaign, a Trump-related story, about

the other GOP candidates, or about the Democratic campaign.

Astonishingly, Donald Trump was the focus of approximately 37% of the top political

media coverage over that course of time. To phrase it another way, Trump was the lead story for

112 of the 302 days covered over this course of time. Noted by Silver in his assessment, not only

Top Story Frequency Relative Frequency As a Percent

Non-campaign 92 30.36%

Trump 112 36.96%

GOP Campaign 50 16.5%

Democratic Campaign 49 16.17%

Total 303 100%

http://memeorandum.com

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is the percentage of Trump coverage noteworthy, the timeline of when he was covered is also

unique. Trump’s coverage is able to be broken down into three major categories, largely

coinciding with the seasons. In the summer, his coverage largely dealt with his polling success in

spite of his inflammatory comments. In the fall, Trump’s coverage subsided appreciably. During

this time he was largely restrained in debates and his public appearances. However, he thrust

himself back into the limelight with anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant rhetoric following the San

Bernardino and Paris terror attacks. Finally, this winter, and thus far spring, his coverage has

become “manic,” to use Silver’s term. He has dominated the media’s focus almost incessantly,

but without one story lasting more beyond one or two days. (Silver, “How Trump”)

III. Trump’s Success Reflects a Republican Power Vacuum

Silver also discusses the idea that Trump has filled a power vacuum that has been created

in the Republican party (Silver, "Three Theories", 2016). He comes to this conclusion based

largely on “The Party Decides” theory of political nomination, which states, in a nutshell, that

the elites in the party decide who is given the nomination (Marx 2011). U.S. News and World

Report published an article in October 2015 titled “Who Speaks for the GOP,” and while one of

the examples they give is out of date (the question of Paul Ryan taking the speakership of the

House), the overall message stands. The party is deeply divided and there is no one who speaks

for the party. As Bill Flores of Texas, the Chairman of the House Republican Study Committee,

said, "At this point in time, we don't have one single person who speaks for the party. We've got a

variety of people . . . We’ve made it crystal clear to the American people what we're against. We

need to talk about a couple of other things – what are we for? What is that vision, and what are

the [issues] that put together that vision?” (Milligan, 2015)

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Usually, the party’s past presidential nominee has served as the spokesman, however,

until recently when he gave a speech against Trump, Mitt Romney has hardly contributed to the

debate. George W. Bush has also avoided the discussion, whether seeking to save Jeb Bush from

being associated with his record or from deference to the office of the President. As the party

moves forward, unless the excitement for Trump begins to lessen, he will continue to to emerge

as the new leader of the Republican party.

Campus Poll

In an effort to gain more understanding as to why individuals support Trump, I decided to

do some primary research. While the initial idea was to conduct a survey among people living in

Michigan and Ohio, it was determined that there were too many obstacles to an effective survey

in two different areas that would result in enough responses to make the survey significant or

reliable. Once it was determined that the original concept for the survey was not going to be

effective or possible, a new method was chosen. It was decided that a survey would still be

useful and beneficial but the location and people surveyed would have to be different than the

original scope.

A poll was done on the campus of Cedarville University to determine why people support

Trump. The survey was conducted online through an optional response model wherein the

request was sent through email. The email asked for people who had voted or planned to vote for

Donald Trump in the primary elections. Even with this specific request, there was a problem with

people responding to the survey without meeting the qualifications. These people were filtered

out through the survey to avoid having to sift through answers that were not in support of Trump.

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While there were steps taken to avoid bias or other issues with the survey, this poll cannot

be construed to address every issue. First, this survey was sent to, and responded to by, college

students, the views of whom may not be representative of the population. Second, this survey

does suffer from respondent bias, as people chose whether they wanted to answer the survey or

not. The survey questions and responses were as follows:

Have you voted for, or do you plan to vote for, Donald Trump?Yes 34

No 310

What is Your Gender?Male 151

Female 180

Prefer Not to Answer 3

What is your age?18-24 250

25-34 16

35-44 15

45-54 21

55-64 23

65 or Older 6

Prefer Not To Answer 1

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These were the questions that all respondents were presented with, along with the

answers they provided. Respondents who answered “No” to supporting Trump saw the survey

What Ethnicity Best Describes You?American Indian/Alaskan Native 1

Asian/Pacific Islander 6

Black or African American 4

Hispanic 5

White/Caucasian 302

Multiple Ethnicity/Other 10

What is Your Yearly Household Income Before Taxes?

Less than $19,999 72

$20,000 to $29,999 16

$30,000 to $39,999 24

$40,000 to $49,999 14

$50,000 to $59,999 24

$60,000 to $74,999 24

$75,000 to $99,999 28

$100,000 to $149,999 44

$150,000 or more 21


How Would You Describe Where You Live?Urban 26

Suburban 167

Rural 125


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questions in the order presented above. For those who answered “Yes” to supporting Trump, they

were taken to a question asking them to state why they support Trump. Within this group of 27

respondents who typed out answers, only 13 were serious answers that dealt with the primary

elections, as opposed to the general election. These answers ranged from a single typed letter to

statements saying the person in question would vote for Trump in the general election if he was

the nominee, but not support him in the primaries. The demographics for this group of serious

respondents, followed by the exact text of their responses to why they support Trump is as

follows:

What is Your Gender?Male 4

Female 9

What is Your Age?18-24 7

25-34 0

35-44 1

45-54 2

55-64 2

65 or Older 1

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What Ethnicity Best Describes You?

American Indian/Alaskan Native 0

Asian/Pacific Islander 0

Black or African American 0

Hispanic 1

White/Caucasian 12

Multiple Ethnicity/Other 0

What is Your Yearly Household Income Before Taxes?Less than $19,999 3

$20,000 to $29,999 1

$30,000 to $39,999 2

$40,000 to $49,999 0

$50,000 to $59,999 0

$60,000 to $74,999 1

$75,000 to $99,999 3

$100,000 to $149,999 1

$150,000 or more 0


How Would You Describe Where You Live?Urban 1

Suburban 7

Rural 4


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In seeking to understand how these responses fit into the three schools of thought

discussed above, these responses were then analyzed to determine what school of thought most

closely fit the reasoning. The school of thought arguing for Trump’s success to be attributed to

his popularity with voters was interpreted loosely, as many responses were deemed close enough

to fit into the school without the exact reasoning having been discussed in the school’s respective

section earlier in this paper.

What is your main reason for supporting Trump? Or, if you had to limit your reason to one sentence what would it be?He is an outsider....I think he can bring the economy around.

He is unconventional and has no political background.

He doesn't mince words.

Negotiating experience and absence of monetary claims from lobbyists

He is not a politician and brings a fresh feel to the stale state of politics.I think trump has a lot of knowledge in business and I believe that he loves america enough that he will do his best to get things done.He is going to make America great again

He stands for more biblical principles than the others.

I think he is the only one who can defeat Hillary Clinton.

I feel he can get the USA financially stable.He is self financing his campaign, he is not afraid to voice his opinion, he is not taking donations from super PACs, he is focused on America and making it great by keeping jobs here and keeping our borders strong while also not supporting the Iraq war. He also is big on women's rights and is the best candidate for the Republicans to win the general election.I think that America needs a person in charge who is not a politician and who can make decisions that will affect the countryHe is aligned with my personal beliefs, and he will have advisors when he is president to advise him on foreign and domestic policy.

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Analysis of these responses reveals that the concept of Trump being an outsider filters

through the responses, playing a role in six of the responses. This fits into the school of thought

Stated Reason For Support School of ThoughtHe is an outsider....I think he can bring the economy around.

Popularity with Voters - Outsider

He is unconventional and has no political background.


He doesn't mince words. Popularity with Voters - Anti-Political Correctness

Negotiating experience and absence of monetary claims from lobbyists


He is not a politician and brings a fresh feel to the stale state of politics.


I think trump has a lot of knowledge in business and I believe that he loves america enough that he will do his best to get things done.

Popularity with Voters - Business Leadership Experience

He is going to make America great again Popularity with Voters - TrustworthyHe stands for more biblical principles than the others.

Popularity with Voters - Individual Values

I think he is the only one who can defeat Hillary Clinton.

No Corresponding School - Practicality

I feel he can get the USA financially stable. Popularity with Voters - Conservative FearsHe is self financing his campaign, he is not afraid to voice his opinion, he is not taking donations from super PACs, he is focused on America and making it great by keeping jobs here and keeping our borders strong while also not supporting the Iraq war. He also is big on women's rights and is the best candidate for the Republicans to win the general election.


I think that America needs a person in charge who is not a politician and who can make decisions that will affect the country


He is aligned with my personal beliefs, and he will have advisors when he is president to advise him on foreign and domestic policy.

Popularity with Voters - Individual Values

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that Trump has been successful based on his popularity among voters. Also fitting into this

school of thought is the idea that he “doesn’t mince words” and “has a lot of knowledge in

business.” Trump’s lack of self-censorship sets him apart from the cautious and well-spoken

establishment, and his business knowledge points to extra-political leadership and experience

being more important than experience in elected office. It is not surprising that the school of

thought that explains Trump’s success by his popularity is the most well-represented here, as it is

the only school that explains the success by a metric that people would discuss or mention in a

survey. That a person would claim their support of Trump is due to the frequency with which

Trump is in the news or that there is a power vacuum in the Republican Party is unlikely. These

options are simply not options that the average voter would likely discuss. They are more likely

to talk about the aspects of Trump that appeal to them, such as his status as an outsider or his

leadership experience outside of elected office.

There are also those who support Trump because his values align with their own views.

This is evidenced by the person who said “He stands for more biblical [sic] views than the

others,” as well as the one who said “He is aligned with my personal beliefs.” These responses,

while slightly less related, are still rooted in the concept that Trump has been successful because

of his appeal to voters. While it is difficult to tell what beliefs the second person holds that align

with Trump’s, due to the fact that the survey was done on the campus of a Christian University,

There is the person who is basing his or her support in the primaries on the general

election, seeing Trump as the one who has the best chance to beat Hilary moving forward in the

election process. This supposedly practical thought process is not supported by actual polling

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numbers, as referenced earlier in this paper, where it was shown that Trump would struggle

greatly against either of the two Democratic candidates he will face if he wins the nomination.

Finally, there are those who are holding onto Trump’s campaign promise to “Make

America great again” and the belief that he will “make the US financially stable.” This holds to

the thread that Trump will deliver on his promises, even without any proof or solidified plan as to

how he will achieve these ends. This answer, once again, falls under the school of thought that

Trump’s success is driven by his popularity among voters. Specifically, this speaks to the fact

that people believe that Trump is more trustworthy than politicians and will be able to do what he

promises he will accomplish.

Dayton Trump Rally

In addition to the primary research done through the poll, I also attended a rally for

Donald Trump at the airport in Vandalia, Ohio. I was able to talk to some of his supporters, and

while people were not very willing to talk to someone doing research, I was able to gain some

interesting insight into those who support Trump, as well as experience the atmosphere that

surrounds his rallies and his supporters.

When I first arrived at the rally, it appeared that there would be only a small crowd there

to see Trump, due to the parking lot being mostly empty. However, as I approached the hangar in

which the rally was to be held, I realized that there was a great deal more people than I originally

thought there would be. While it took some time to get into the hangar, once I did, I was

surprised at the sheer amount of people who were packed into that hangar. People kept streaming

in while we waited for Trump to arrive. Eventually, the hangar got so crowded that Trump’s

campaign manager here in Ohio had to request people to actually move further out onto the

Gerard !23

tarmac. Later, he claimed that the hangar was at capacity, that people were still lined up outside

the hangar, and that there was cars lined up to the nearby highway. This elicited cheers from the

crowd, including chants of Trump’s name until they were drowned out by the Elton John music

being played over the loud speakers.

The time Trump was to arrive came and went, and while I was quickly becoming restless

over the situation, most of those around me were quick to think of explanations as to why he was

late. It seemed as though most people were making efforts to not blame Trump for anything that

may be going wrong, to keep him on some sort of plane whereupon he can do no wrong. Their

explanations ranged from airplane troubles to meetings about the Chicago protests the previous

night to a theory that the government was keeping Trump’s plane grounded so as to keep him

from speaking at the rally. The theories ranged from plausible to borderline impossible, but when

Trump did arrive an hour late, we received no answer as to what caused the delay.

The delay did not dampen the enthusiasm of the crowd. When Trump’s plane landed,

with his name plastered on the side, the crowd made a sound unlike anything I’ve heard outside

of a college football game. There were whistles, screams, and shouts, finally culminating in

chants of Trump’s name. The noise continued as Trump made his way up onto the stage, where

he began to bask in the crowd’s adoration.

As Trump began to talk, the crowd’s noise began to die down so they could listen to what

he had to say. During his opening statements, Trump did make some statements that elicited

some reactions from the crowd. They were mostly cheers in favor of Trump and his statements,

but there was one man who yelled out an expletive-laced phrase targeted at those who are

actively against Trump.

Gerard !24

Much of what Trump had to say was no more than fodder for people who already support

him. He said little of substance, but rather only repeated what the crowd wanted to hear. He

talked about how much he loved Ohio, how much he loved the police, and his plan to build the

wall. He also talked about fixing the trade deficit, stymieing Americans losing jobs, aiding

veterans, and bolstering the military. These topics were all incredibly well received by the crowd,

cheering and chanting at every opportunity.

At one point after Trump discussed the building of the wall, a chant broke out repeating

“Build That Wall.” Trump reiterated his commitment to the building of the wall and his promise

to make Mexico pay for it. This caused the crowd to stop their chants, but only so that they could

take up the screams and shouts of excitement and ardor. It was clear that Trump has a power over

his audience in his words and his plans. This was never more clearly shown than in the middle of

the rally where he asked for audience participation. He asked people to raise their rights hands

and swear to vote for Trump in the upcoming primary.

The rally took a turn about half an hour into Trump’s speech when a protester pushed his

was forward yelling at Trump and calling him a coward. This man was quickly escorted out by

one of the myriad Secret Service agents present at the event. As the protester was being removed

from the building, Trump stopped his speech and yelled at the Secret Service agent to “just throw

him the h--- out of here,” much to the crowd’s enjoyment. There was a second protester near the

end of the event, who, based on the comments Trump made, was only a high schooler. Trump

called him out, saying, “Send him back to his mommy.” These comments still drew cheers from

the crowd, even though they were directed at a younger person.

Gerard !25

In what was potentially the most interesting aspect of the rally, there was an incident that

I was unable to actually see from where I was standing, but I could tell that Trump was worried

about it, based on his facial expression and how he jumped when someone yelled. He was then

flanked by two Secret Service agents. It was not until the next day that that I learned a man

attempted to jump the fence in an attempt to get on the stage with Trump. Exactly what he was

attempting to accomplish by this is difficult to determine, but the event did leave Trump visibly

shaken. He did attempt to recover after the event, saying that he “could have taken him, but it’s

easier when the police do it.” Amidst the cheers that followed, Trump once again talked about

how much he loved the police, to great adulation.

I did use this rally in an attempt to learn about the reasons people support Trump and are

passionate enough about him to attend a rally early on a weekend. One man I spoke to, who

chose to not give any identifiers, had some interesting things to say about Trump. When asked

about Trump’s support for Hillary in prior elections, he said Trump was only playing the political

system to garner favor with whomever may be elected to benefit himself moving forward.

Additionally, this man said that Trump will not actually build a wall on the Mexican border, but

is only using it as hyperbole to show that he is serious about immigration.

This same man also said that Trump will bring industry back to the U.S., which spoke to

him as a worker in a Toyota factory. However, when pressed for how Trump will bring industry

back, he said that he does not know how Trump will do it, but he believes that it will happen.

The last thing this man had to say about Trump was one part of Trump’s plan to help pay off the

debt. This man said that China has stolen some patents from the United States, and that Trump

has promised to sue China for the return of those patents and the money coming from them.

Gerard !26

The second man I spoke to was an 85 year old man. I was able to get some history on him

as we spoke. He dropped out of school in the 6th grade and made a living for himself raising race

horses. While this man was a vehement Trump supporter, he did spend time to ensure that I knew

he was not a particularly staunch Republican.

One of this man’s major points on Trump was that Trump is honest and has integrity. He

firmly believed that Trump would come through on all of his promises, including the building of

the wall on the Mexican border. While he did admit that Trump has not put forward a plan to

make Mexico pay for the wall, he said that we have to “read between the lines.” He said that

Trump would put such heavy economic sanctions on Mexico that within a few months, Mexico

would be offering to build the wall.

This man also appreciated that Trump is an outsider, pointing to both his business

leadership and expertise and his detachment from politics as usual as benefits to his campaign.

He believes that much of Trump’s honesty and integrity come from him being a businessman, not

a politician. Additionally, he pointed to Trump’s business experience as a boon for his

presidential leadership, as Trump will have “the best advisors, who will have advisors, who will

have their own advisors.” While this is slightly convoluted to read, he later expounded on this

point to state that even though Trump may not have any experience with a certain situation, he

will have the best possible team behind him. This team will then have the best research to give

Trump the best possible recommendation for the situation at hand.

I did attempt to talk to some other people, specifically some women, at the rally. One

woman was not particularly interested in having a conversation about Trump, but she did say that

Mexicans were taking jobs from hard-working Americans and that Trump would deport the

Gerard !27

Mexicans so as to give these jobs back to Americans. While there were other women there, when

I tried to talk to them they either did not want to talk or let someone else talk instead.

Downs’ Median Voter Theorem

In his book An Economic Theory of Democracy, Anthony Downs expands on the original

idea from Duncan Black, and later refined by Harold Hotelling and Arthur Smithies, that two

businesses aligned on a single plane will begin to move closer to the middle to appeal to as many

customers as possible, but will find a point along the line where they do not lose customers on

the extremes by coming to the same point in the middle. (Downs, 116-117)

Downs took this model and applied it to political parties. For this model to apply, one

must make some assumptions. First, one must assume that “political preferences can bordered

from left to right in a manner agreed upon by all voters” (Downs, 115). Second, one must assume

that all voter’s preferences have a single peak and slope downward at the same pace. To explain,

Down gave an example stating that “if a voter likes position 35 best, we can immediately deduce

that he prefers 30 to 25 and 40 to 45” (Downs, 116). In other words, when given a quantitative

ordering, one will always prefer a position numerically closer to their position than another.

Downs applied this theory to a two-party system, explaining that if the population has

their mean at 50 on our hypothetical scale of 0-100 following a bell curve, the two parties will

come to the middle and become so similar that their differences will become “infinitesimal,” but

voters on the extreme would “be forced to voted for the one closets to them, no matter how

distasteful its policies seemed in comparison with those of their ideal government” (Downs

118-119). Downs explains that abstention is both irrational and rational for extremist voters in

this situation. He says abstention is irrational because it grants a better chance for the worse party

Gerard !28

in their eyes to win. However, abstention is rational for voters he calls “future oriented.” They

allow the worse party to win so as to keep their preferred party from moving closer to the center,

so that the party will move closer towards the extremists’ views. (Downs 118-119)

If the same hypothetical country is then changed to have a bimodal distribution wherein

the modes are closer to the extremes. In this same two party system, these diametrically opposed

parties will try to implement policies that are radically opposed to each other. This would cause a

very unstable, and likely chaotic, government. There is little chance for any centrist, balancing

parties to arise under this system as they would only be able to govern in a coalition with one of

the radical parties, but would also have to move toward one extreme to gain votes. (Downs, 120)

This situation, while not particularly plausible due to the plurality system in elections in

the United States, shows what would happen if a new third party did arise with the ability and

opportunity to win seats in Congress or in the presidency. They would be unable to accomplish

much within the system. As there is the argument that Trump is the leader of a new “third party,”

this discussion becomes necessary. If the Republican party is fragmented into a new GOP and the

old GOP, then one must wonder if either branch of the party would be able to accomplish any of

their goals without corroboration and collaboration between the factions. Whether this would

further fragment the party or pull them back together is impossible to know at this point,

however there is the potential that the time necessary to establish the future of the party at that

point may result in the complete destruction and subsequent reestablishment of the party.

Final Analysis and Conclusion

Downs Median Voter Theorem provides an interesting mechanism by which to explain

the phenomenon of Trump. While it is difficult to pin the country down into one of the two

Gerard !29

models of the two-party system described by Downs, the United States does seem to fall more

into the unimodal, bell curve model proposed by Downs. However, there are more voters on the

extreme than allowed for in Downs’ model, which pulls the parties more toward each extreme.

Additionally, Downs’ model assumes complete rationality in terms of the actor’s ends. Downs

defines rationality, in part, as men “pursu[ing]their own interest directly without disguising

them…” (Downs, pg 4). While assuming complete rationality is useful, and even necessary, this

rationality does not exist in the real world. It is not uncommon for people to completely disguise

their intentions or misdirect from the true intention, because otherwise, their goals may not be

achievable.

With much of what Trump has done, he seems to be appealing to the center majority on

the unimodal model, with comments on bringing jobs back to the country and Planned

Parenthood. Increasing employment for Americans is something that all parties can agree on due

to the benefit it would provide to the citizens and the economy. It would address the problem that

progressives have with companies moving overseas to avoid paying taxes. Yet on some issues,

Trump seems to be appealing to the extreme right on the bimodal model, such as immigration

and the refugee crisis. Trump’s stances on these issues are not only too far right for progressives,

many conservatives also believe that the proposals are too extreme.

Attempting to pin Trump’s success down into only one school of thought is neither

beneficial nor entirely possible. While no one school can entirely explain Trump, neither can one

school be completely ignored in the successes of Trump. If one school was to seem to have the

smallest contribution to the success of Trump, it would appear to be the power vacuum.

However, the lesser contribution of this school may be related to the timing of the rise of Trump.

Gerard !30

Had there not been a power vacuum when Trump announced, it is possible that his campaign

would have never succeeded from the beginning. If Trump was to begin to lose percentages of

his media presence, it is likely that he would begin to drop in the polls, yet he would not drop so

far as to negate his successes to that point that he would need to consider the suspension of his

campaign. Finally, if Trump was to lose popularity in his message with voters, he would lose

significant percentage points in the polls, but his media coverage and the power vacuum would

still provide him with some standing in the polls.

As the campaign continues forward, the likelihood of Trump winning states decreases

now that there are fewer candidates in the race. Trump has yet to win a state in the primaries by a

true majority. While he has come close to winning 50% in a state, he has only won states by

pluralities, so as the field continues to shrink, the chances of either Cruz or Kasich winning more

states and taking delegates from Trump begin to rise. While neither Cruz nor Kasich have a high

chance, mathematically, at winning the Republican nomination outright, if they can win enough

delegates, there may a contested convention, giving the Republican party a chance to put

together a ticket that may be better for the party or more approved by the establishment.

The success of Donald Trump has been unexpected and unprecedented. Candidates

before him who have fit part of the mold of Trump have not been successful in the primaries. Yet

Trump has had overwhelming success in the primaries. I contend that his success is a result of a

combination of the three major schools of thought that his overwhelming percentage of media

coverage has lead to his lead in the polls, that the success is a result of Trump having reached a

large but widely ignored segment of the population with his rhetoric, and that his success has

Gerard !31

arisen from a lack of consensus among the elites in the party as to which candidate to endorse,

creating a power vacuum.

These three schools of thought as to why Trump has succeeded cannot explain the

entirety of the Trump phenomenon. They do, however, provide a starting point for understanding

how he has been able to accomplish what no one thought he would be able to do nine months

ago. His campaign has quickly become the most successful in the presidential race this cycle for

either party. His complete dominance of the media campaign has provided him with a platform

upon which he can spread his message without much financial cost to himself. His ideas,

regardless what pundits say, has resonated with the people and they have responded passionately.

His arrival in the political scene when he did allowed him to step into a vacuum of power left

abandoned by the Republican Party and to possibly become the nominee and de facto party

leader.

Gerard !32

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Gerard !33

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utm_source=newsletter>.

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