final delphi n ngt

7/28/2019 Final Delphi n NGT

1/27

WELCOME TO OUR PRESENTATION

Sub: Human Resource Planning & DevelopmentSec:AFaculty : Farheen Hassan


2/27

H I M E L , N I S A R U L H A S A N 1 2 - 9 5 7 4 7 - 2

H O S S A I N , M O H A M M A D N O O R 1 2 - 9 5 6 9 0 - 2

T O N Y , B A H A U D D I N H O S S A I N 1 2 - 9 6 0 2 6 - 2

R A S U L S H O U R A V 1 1 - 9 5 2 4 2 - 3

Group Members


3/27

Expert Forecast

Methods of Collecting Information from theExperts:Interviews, questionnaires, and telephone

conference. Two methods of Expert Forecast:

-Delphi technique and

-Nominal Group Technique.


4/27

DELPHI TECHNIQUE

- A structured judgmental method to achieve the group consensus on

employee forecasting.

- The experts do not meet face to face. It is more economical if they are

assigned to different locations. It also improves the quality of decision

making by avoiding disrupting personality conflict and preventing theloudest group member dominating the decision.

- The first step is to develop anonymous questionnaire that ask the experts

opinion.


5/27

Delphi Technique (Continued)

The results are collected, compiled and a secondset of anonymous questionnaire is prepared basedon that.

The process continues through several more untilthe experts agree on a judgment.

This is how the experts can also learn from oneanother and modify or elaborate their position inthe next round.

It is time consuming.

The experts should be knowledgeable.


6/27

Mohammad Noor Hossain


7/27

The Delphi Process


8/27

The Delphi Process

Expert ExpertExpert

1

2

3

4

3

2

4

1

Questionnaires Feedback Questionnaires Feedback

Reason Solution


9/27

THE DELPHI PROCESS

1. Facilitator

Provides the participants with initial questionnaires. Collects answers to

these questionnaires and comments. The facilitator then filters out irrelevant

information. This process avoids groupthink. The facilitator then creates the

questionnaires for the second round and sends them to the participants.


10/27

The Delphi Process (Continued)

2. A series of information collection rounds:

Here, participants can change their previous forecasts anonymously, seenew information which is coming from other participants, and commenton this. In face to face meetings people tend to stick 0n stated opinion,but with this method they can change their mind at any moment.

3. Participant anonymity:

It is normal for participants to remain anonymous at all stages to enablehonest opinions to come through the process.


11/27

Advantages of the Delphi Technique

- More participants can be involved than a face to face method.

- It gives participants the flexibility to modify their views as they learn

from others.

- The remote process also avoids negative group influences such asdominating members and political lobbying.

- Provides a structured way for different group of people to makedecisions about complex problems.


12/27

DISADVANTAGES OF THE DELPHI

TECHNIQUE

- It can be difficult to get respond from the people.

- The decision-making process is less transparent than face to facemeetings.

- The process is time consuming to coordinate and manage.


13/27

Bahauddin Hossain Tony


14/27

NGT- NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE

The NGT is a group of problem solving process which involves

- problem identification,

- solution generation and

- decision making.

This technique was originally developed by Delbecq and VandeVen,and

has been applied to education program planning by Vedros.


15/27

NGT- (CONTINUED)

- Group brainstorming rather than single opinion.

- A silent generation of ideas are done and then open discussion on the

ideas are held.

- The group tries to find out the best solution out of the discussion.

- It avoids the domination of single opinion and also works in a complex

situation when single cannot master over the situation.


16/27

WHEN TO USE NGT

- When some members are much more vocal than others.- When some think better in silence.

- When there is concern about some members not participating.

- When members does not generate quantities of ideas.

- When all or some group members are new to the team.

- When the issue is controversial or there is heated conflict.


17/27

ADVANTAGES OF NGT

- It ensures equal participation.

- In many cases it can be a time-saving technique.

- It produces a large number of ideas and providing a sense of closure.

- Voting is anonymous, there are opportunities for equal participation of

members.


18/27

DISADVANTAGES OF NGT

- It lacks flexibility by being able to deal with only one problem at a time.

- Opinions may not converge in the voting process, cross-fertilization of

ideas may be constrained.

- Another disadvantage is the amount of time needed to prepare for the

activity.


19/27

Rasul Shourav


20/27

NGT PROCEDURE

1. Introduction and explanation

2. Silent generation of ideas

3. Sharing ideas4. Group discussion

5. Voting and ranking


21/27

NGT PROCEDURE(CONTINUED)

1. State the subject. Clarify the statement as needed until everyone understands it.

2. Each member silently thinks and writes down as many ideas as possible in a set

period of time.

3. Each member in turn states aloud one idea. Facilitator records it on the flipchart.

No discussion is allowed.

4. Discuss each idea in turn. Wording may be changed. Discussion may clarify

meaning, explain logic, raise and answer questions, state agreement or disagreement.

5. Prioritize the ideas using voting or list reduction.


22/27


23/27

EXAMPLE OF PROCEDURE

Table 2. Example of John's Ranking Sheet

JohnA 3B 2C 6D 1E 5F 4


24/27

EXAMPLE OF PROCEDURE

Table 3. Example of a Final Output of an NGT

SessionJohn Ryan Paula Robin Simon Total

A 3 1 4 4 4 16B 2 3 1 1 2 9C 6 5 5 3 6 25D 1 2 3 2 1 9E 5 4 2 5 3 19F 4 6 6 6 5 27


25/27

An organizational Example

A sales manager, wanting to put together a presentation for akey customer, brings together the account manager, theproduct marketing manager and the two key productengineers. The quality manager facilitates to run an NGT

session for them, where they quickly find the key productbenefits over the competing products, and come up with acompelling value proposition.


26/27

Any Question ?


27/27

final delphi n ngt

Documents