figures from by martin visbeck dynamics of extratropical jet shift pablo zurita gotor depto....
TRANSCRIPT
Figures from http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO by Martin Visbeck
Dynamics of extratropical jet shiftPablo Zurita Gotor
Depto. Física de la Tierra IUniversidad Complutense
CLIVAR SPAIN 2/12/08
Outline of the talk
1. Zonal index , persistence and eddy-zonal mean feedback.
2. Diagnostics of jet position: the jet symmetry budget.
3. Eddy-driven shift in the two-layer QG model.
Internal variability of the jet: the zonal index
• Leading mode of variability of zonal-mean zonal wind
• Represents a meridional shift of the jet
• Has equivalent barotropic structure
Lorenz and Hartmann (2001)
Zonal index and annular modes
The zonal index variability is intimately related to the annular mode variability
Geostrophic zonal wind
Geopotential height
(Thompson and Wallace 2000)
Forced annular response
The annular mode response is ubiquitous for many types of climate perturbations
Projected 21st century stormtrack shift in IPCC AR4 models (Yin 2005)
Southern Hemisphere geopotential trend, partly attributed to ozone changes
(Thompson and Solomon 2002)
In many circumstances, the annular pattern dominates the forced response even when the external forcing has little projection on this pattern.
Zonal index persistence
zonal wind autocorrelation momentum flux autocorrelation
lag (days)lag (days)Taken from Lorenz and Hartmann (2001)
The zonal index is much more persistent than the eddies that drive it:
• At long time scales, there might be a role for the stratosphere and/or ocean• At subsynoptic time scales, eddy-zonal mean feedback is likely more important
The eddy forcing is such that it tends to reinforce preexisting zonal wind anomalies
Likewise, models with more persistent internal variability show stronger annular trends
From Gerber et al (2008)
The short answer is predictability…
There seems to exist a relation between the persistence of the mode and the percentage of variance that it explains (e.g., Yang and Chang 2007)
Why is persistence important?
Diagnostics of jet position
Start with zonal-mean zonal momentum equation:
This is just a balance between the different accelerations.
However, this tells us nothing about the position of the jet!
Diagnostics of jet position
Start with zonal-mean zonal momentum equation:
Multiply by latitude:
Integrating in y and z:
We refer to this equation as the jet symmetry budget
A measure of the jet position (or asymmetry)
Torque forcingEddy forcing Friction
Two-layer QG model on the beta plane
Eliassen-Palm fluxes
Since this model is symmetric about midchannel, all terms independently vanish
We break the symmetry adding an easterly torque F on one side only
Jet sensitivity to torque position
Control run: no torque
Jet is symmetric about midchannel
Remote torque
Easterly jet created on the side but the original jet remains symmetric
> 0
Jet sensitivity to torque position
Control run: no torque
Jet is symmetric about midchannel
Torque within eddy-dominated region
When the eddies interact, they make the jet shift poleward
Jet sensitivity to torque position
As the torque moves closer to the center of the channel, the jet shift increases…
Eventually, the jet moves back to the center of the channel and symmetry is recovered
Jet symmetry budget
Terms contributing to jet shift:
• For a remote torque, its forcing is simply balanced by friction
• As the torque approaches the eddy dominated region, there is a positive eddy feedback that amplifies the torque forcing
• This results in a shift of the jet
Torque forcing
FrictionEddy forcing
Jet sensitivity to torque strengthAt a given position, the jet shift increases with increasing torque
Mechanisms of eddy-zonal mean feedback
That’s the big question!!! And a very difficult question too…
Some proposed mechanisms:
• Different eddy lifecycles (LC1 vs LC2) due to changes in barotropic shear/refractive index/eddy propagation
• Meridional displacement of critical layers due to differential acceleration
• Resilience of the jet to stay at its perturbed position due to the ‘negative viscosity’ effect (i.e., the eddy generation shifts with the jet)
But we don’t really know…
We just submitted a proposal to investigate these issues
Conclusions
1. The zonal index (jet shift) is the leading form of zonal-mean extratropical variability and a fundamental part of the forced response.
2. This mode varies on longer time scales than the driving eddies, which might be due to an eddy-mean flow feedback
3. Eddy reinforcement may explain why this mode dominates the internal variability and why this is a preferred response in the forced problem.
4. We have derived an evolution equation for the position of the jet, driven by asymmetry. The main forcing is the asymmetry in eddy momentum flux.
5. In an idealized model, we showed that the eddy momentum flux tends to amplify other sources of asymmetry, implying a positive feedback.
6. The dynamics of this feedback remains to be elucidated.
Thank you for your attention!