fight last click and see the whole picture · pros cons ldirect traffic already won from other ......

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© Copyright 2017 HomeAway, Inc.

Fight Last Click and see the Whole Picture

November 2017, EyeForTravel Amsterdam

Maria Gomez BadaAnalytics & Data Insights, Global [email protected]

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l Marketing Attribution

l Google Analytics Default Attribution Models

l Data Driven Attribution

l Online Attribution Models Comparison

Agenda


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Marketing Attribution - What is?Marketing is like dating: you cannot expect every date to convert in a marriage proposal and marriage doesn´t simply happen because of the last date you have been on

Marriage diagram

Date Relationships Marriage


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Marketing Attribution - What is?

Real Madrid – Barça Planning


In football, one person scores a goal, but every person in the team contributes

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Marketing attribution is the identification and value assignment of several user touchpoints that contribute in some manner to a desired outcome

Different clicks Conversion



BookingChannel 6 Channel 7 Channel 8Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 5Channel 3 Channel 4

Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 5Channel 3 Channel 4

Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 3 Booking

Channel 6 Channel 7Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 5Channel 3 Channel 4

Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4

Channel 6Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 5Channel 3 Channel 4

BookingChannel 1 Channel 2

Channel 1

Marketing Channels Diagram

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However, in dating you also need to consider the different ways you met the other person (not only in first date but in subsequences decisions) …

Date Relationships Marriage

Friends Apps Club

Marriage diagram



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… and similarly in Marketing you also need to consider the devices that have been used




Different clicks Conversion

Desktop Mobile Tablet

BookingCh. 6 Ch. 7 Ch. 8Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 5Ch. 3 Ch. 4

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 5Ch. 3 Ch. 4

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Booking

Ch. 6 Ch. 7Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 5Ch. 3 Ch. 4

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Ch. 4

Ch. 6Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 5Ch. 3 Ch. 4

BookingCh. 1 Ch. 2

Ch. 1

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To further complicate it, in the same way married couples can divorce, bookings can be canceled (adding more complexity to attribution)




Stay

Cancel

Stay

Different clicks StaysConversion

BookingCh. 6 Ch. 7 Ch. 8Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 5Ch. 3 Ch. 4

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 5Ch. 3 Ch. 4

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Booking

Ch. 6 Ch. 7Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 5Ch. 3 Ch. 4

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Ch. 4

Ch. 6Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 5Ch. 3 Ch. 4

BookingCh. 1 Ch. 2

Ch. 1

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(including incremental…)

Marketing Attribution – Why it is important?Marketing attribution helps companies in measuring and optimizing marketing channels impact

Performance Measurement Channel optimizationMedia Spend / Return


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Agenda


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Last click attribution is very simple but forgets earlier interactions

Visual

GA Default Attribution Models – Last Click

0% 0% 0% 0%

100%

Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4 Channel 5

Pros Cons

l Easy to measurel Useful for: Campaigns

designed to attract people at the moment of purchase

l Earlier interactions do not contribute to conversion


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Last Non-Direct helps comparing vs other companies but reduces the credit to brand campaigns

Visual

GA Default Attribution Models – Last Non-Direct Click

0% 0% 0%

100%

0%

Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4 Direct

Pros Cons

l Direct traffic already won from other channels

l Default GA methodl Useful for: Benchmark

l Offline campaigns (TV, radio…) lose credit


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Last Adwords gives most credit to SEM

Visual

GA Default Attribution Models – Last Adwords Click (Rules Based)

0% 0%

100%

0% 0%

Channel 1 Channel 2 AdWords Channel 4 Channel 5

Pros Cons

l Useful for: Identify and credit

the AdWords ads that closed the most conversions

l Focus too much on SEM


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Visual

GA Default Attribution Models – First Click

100%

0% 0% 0% 0%


Pros Cons

l Useful for: Not well known

brand

l Latest interactions do not contribute to conversion

First click attribution is also very simple but forgets later interactions


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Linear attribution splits equally, but forgets top channel contributors

Visual

GA Default Attribution Models – Linear

20% 20% 20% 20% 20%


Pros Cons

l Useful for: Campaigns to

maintain contact and awareness throughout cycle

l Evaluate overall channel contribution

l Does not explain which channels are contributing more value


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Time Decay seems logical, but also undermines earlier interactions

Visual

GA Default Attribution Models – Time Decay

2% 5%13%

30%

50%


Pros Cons

l Logic algorithm: if earlier touch points were magnificent, why did they not convert

l Can customize half-life of decay

l Useful for: 1day or 2day sales

cycle

l Interactions that occurred 1/2 weeks before have only a small value

l Subjective


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U shaped gives user certain flexibility, but has some risks

Visual

GA Default Attribution Models – Position based (U Shaped)

40%

20%

0%

20%

40%


Pros Cons

l % can be customized

l Useful when: Initial and closing

interactions are most valued

l Dangerous to use as a first model, you can be attributing very incorrectly


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None of these attribution models are perfect and they do not consider impressions, that is why more advanced and analytical methods are needed

GA Default Attribution Models – Recap

40%20%

0%20%

40%

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Ch. 4 Ch. 5

GA Attribution models

2% 5% 13%30%

50%

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Ch. 4 Ch. 5

0% 0% 0% 0%

100%

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Ch. 4 Ch. 5

0% 0% 0%

100%

0%

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Ch. 4 Dir

0% 0%

100%

0% 0%

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 AdW Ch. 4 Ch. 5

100%

0% 0% 0% 0%

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Ch. 4 Ch. 5

20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

Ch. 1 Ch. 2 Ch. 3 Ch. 4 Ch. 5


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Agenda


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Data Driven Attribution (DDA)

Data Driven Attribution


Learns the relative value in the funnel of each interaction (Inc. impressions), analyzes each channel value to drive further conversions and distribute spend more efficiently

Desktop Mobile TabletChannelsImpressions

Understand path Optimization Improve ROAS –Incremental spend

Predictive Modeling

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To understand how DDA models work, let´s first understand the impact of one channel on overall bookings

Data Driven Attribution (DDA) – How it works: Display example


Display spend (k $) Display spend vs bookings correlations (#)Bookings (k #)

NOT REAL NUMBERS

0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.03.1

4.5 5.06.0

8.5 8.4 9.0

W 1 W 3 W 5 W 7 W 9 W 11

Display Channel (last Non-Direct Click)

All Channels

0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.1 4.0 5.1 5.5 6.0 5.5 5.4

W 1 W 3 W 5 W 7 W 9 W 11

0.0 2.27.2 4.8

19.215.611.8

26.634.1

41.8

27.121.4

W 1 W 3 W 5 W 7 W 9 W 11


All Channels

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Boo

king

s (k

#)

Display (k$)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

0.0 5.0 10.0

Boo

king

s (k

#)

Display (k$)

Y = 0.7x + 0.6R2 = 0.9

Y = 3.3x + 4.3R2 = 0.7

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Increasing spend in display can increase bookings coming from all other channels The methodology used is the base of DDA models

Data Driven Attribution (DDA) – How it works: Display example


Display spend (k $)

NOT REAL NUMBERS

5.0 5.0

-

5.0

10.0

5.0

Pre Post DeltaControl Test

Incremental bookings, Incremental ROAS (k #, %)Bookings (k #)


All Channels

Display Channel (Last Non-Direct Click)

All Channels (or Display under DDA)

2.0 3.1 1.1 2.2 4.6 2.4

Pre Post Delta

8.1 11.9

3.8 8.3

18.2 9.9

Pre Post Delta

Control Test

1.3

Incremental bookings

26%

Incemental ROAS

6.1

Incremental bookings

122%

Incemental ROAS

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DDA seems to be the better approach for many online complex companies…Data Driven Attribution (DDA) – Other benefits


Pros

l Useful for: Long conversion cycle (+1 weeks) Multiple overlapping channels High use of prospecting High spend = standard models less appropriate

l Using a predictive model also allows to: Consider seasonality Include additional demand signals such as

searches more easily

Impressions Avoids subjective decisions

Major brands considering

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… but it has some challengesData Driven Attribution – Drawbacks


Cons

Display - Last Non-direct Click Display - DDA

Difficult comparison YoY, budgets or other brands Offline campaignsResources neededDifferent vendors &

Products

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Agenda


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Online Attribution Models Comparison


Comments

Data Driven attribution seems to be the best model for complex online business if you want to avoid subjective decisions

Value of interaction

# TouchpointsSingle Multiple

Early

Late

First Click

Last Click

TimeDecay

Linear / U - shape

Data Driven

Objective Subjective

l Last click attribution not appropriate for business with:

Long time to conversion Many interactions pre-conversion High overlap across channels /devices

l Time Decay /Linear attribution or U-Shape are risky methods as are subjective and might imply wrong attribution

Methods Comparison

LastAdw. click

Last Non direct Click

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Appendix

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Online Attribution Models Comparison - Example


All attributions methods achieve same total ROAS, but more appropriate models allows to allocate money more efficiently, and improve ROI materially

Data Driven Attribution

Model Display ROAS SEM ROAS SEO ROAS Email ROAS Total ROAS

First Click 267% 0% 0% 0% 121%

Last Click 0% 0% 0% 8000% 121%

Last Adwords 0% 320% 0% 0% 121%

Time decay 27% 48% 200% 4000% 121%

Linear 67% 80% 200% 2000% 121%

U-shape 107% 32% 80% 3200% 121%

DDA ? ? ? ? 121%

BookingDisplay SEM SEO Email

NOT REAL NUMBERS

($30) ($25) ($10) ($1) $80

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Offline attribution – Media Mix Modelling vs DDA


Summary of differences

Data Driven Attribution (DDA) Marketing Mix Model (MMM)

Model Type Differs across providers Statistical model

Model Update Frequency Daily One time, but can be refreshed

Data Collection Tagging media and websites Existing datasets such as media spend and revenue

Data Volume Required Large volume of media impressions per month 2-3 years of data

Data Granularity User level Weekly & by channel

Offline Channels Depends on provider Yes

Offline Conversions Depends on provider Yes

fight last click and see the whole picture · pros cons ldirect traffic already won from other ......

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