fertility in transition family and fertility dynamics in east germany after unification

Fertility in TransitionFamily and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification

Michaela Kreyenfeld

Politics and Media• Convergence of fertility behavior=

indicator of „social unification“?

Statistical Office• Harmonizing of the statistics?

Social Science• Natural experiement • Study of behavior under radically new

constraints

Relevance of Research Question

0

1

2

3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

East

West

Structure of Talk

1. Constraints and fertility dynamics until 1990

2. Constraints and attitudes after 1990

3. Fertility dynamics after 1990

Constraints before 1990

Planned Economy• Constitutional „right to work”• No unemployment

Integration of Women into Labor Market• Normative pressure to be employed • High public day care coverage

Pro-Natalistic Policies (since 1972)• Policies and „moral appeals“ that encouraged early first birth• Policies directed to higher order births

Fertility Dynamics before 1990

Total Fertility Rate

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

East Germany

West Germany

Pro-natalistic policies



Percentage of Non-Marital Births

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

East Germany

West Germany


Source: Micro-census 1998 (own calculations)

0%

50%

100%

15 20 25 30 35

Age of woman

Cohort 1964 (West)

Cohort 1964 (Ost)

Survival curve to first birth (percentage childless by age)

~ 25-30 %

~ 5-10 %

~ 5 years

Part 2

Constraints and Attitudes after 1990

Fall of Berlin Wall

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

Mai

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

Mai

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov Dec Jan

1989 1990 1991

Monetary Union

Legal UnificationTreuhand

• Fall of ‘Berlin Wall’ in November 1989

• Start of Privatization Process in March 1990

• Monetary Union in July 1990

• Political and Legal Unification in October 1990


Unemployment Rate

Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1990 1995 2000 2005

East Germany

West Germany


0 €

5 €

10 €

15 €

20 €

1990 1995 2000 2005


Hourly Gross WageWages in the industry sector


East Germany

West Germany


Worried about Job Security% of respondents who is very worried about job security

Source: SOEP (own estimations)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1990 1995 2000 2005

East Germany

West Germany


One needs a Family to Lead a Happy Life% of respondents who states that one needs a family to lead a happy life

Source: ALLBUS (own estimations)

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1992 1996 2000 2004

West Germany

East Germany

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1992 1996 2000 2004

Westdeutschland

Ostdeutschland

Quelle: Allbus (eigene Berechnungen)


Child Suffers when Mother Works% of respondents who believe that child suffers when mother works

Source: ALLBUS (own estimations)

West Germany

East Germany


Mother‘s Full-time Employment% of mothers*) who work full-time, [*)women aged 18-45 with children aged 1-15]

Quelle: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007)

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1991 1996 2000 2004

West Germany

East Germany

West Germany

East Germany


Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt

Provision of Public Day Care (Children under age 3)(Availability ratio for public day care places for children aged 0-3)

West Germany

East Germany

Part 3

Family Dynamics after 1990

Fertility Dynamics after 1990

Total Fertility Rate


East Germany

West Germany

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0%

50%

100%

15 20 25 30 35Age of Woman


Source: Micro-census (own estimations)

Cohort 1972 (East)

Cohort 1964 (East)

~ 5 years

Survival Curve to First Birth (percentage childless by age)

Cohort 1972 (West)


Source: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007)

Childlessness at age 38 in East and West Germany

Cohort

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960

26%

14%

20%

1965

East Germany

West Germany




0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

19%

34%

10%

East Germany

West Germany




0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

19%

34%

59%

10%

23%

East Germany

West Germany


Source: miicro-census (own estimations)

West Germany East Germany

No degree

VocationalUniversitydegree

14%8%7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1976 1982 1989 1996 2000 2004

Nodegree

Vocationaldegree

Universitydegree

64%

39%

21%

26%

18%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1976 1982 1991 1996 2000 2004

Non-marital parenthood by women’s education (% of unmarried mothers*) by final education [women aged 15-45 with children below age 3)]

Conclusions

Family Formation

• Dramatic increase in age at first birth compared to GDR-times

• However: East Germans are still younger at first birth than West Germans

Crisis of East or West German behavior?

Non-Marital Fertility

• Unexpected increase in non-marital fertilty in the East after 1990

Persisting East-West- Differences in family structure

No „adaptation“ to West German constraints?

“The more liberal attitudes towards out-of-wedlock childbearing –already more accepted in the rest of Europe– could disrupt the more traditional West German pattern of family formation” (Heilig/Büttner/Lutz 1990)

Conclusions

15%

17%

22%

29%

30%

33%

36%

43%

45%

46%

51%

55%

58%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Italy

Poland

West Germany

Portugal

Russian Federation

Netherlands

Austria

United Kingdom

Denmark

France

Norway

Sweden

East Germany

Percentage of Non-Marital Births in 2004

Source: Council of Europe

Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

www.demogr.mpg.de

fertility in transition family and fertility dynamics in east germany after unification

Documents

total fertility ratesource

statistisches bundesamt0

public day care places

fall of berlin wall1989

mothers fulltime employment

unemployment ratesource

age of womancohort

job securitysource