fertility histories of the great leap famine
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Fertility histories of the Great Leap Famine. Anthony Garnaut University of Melbourne. Chart 1. Liaoning monthly trends. Chart 2. PFR of different age brackets, Liaoning. Chart 3. PFR and infant mortality, Liaoning. Chart 4. Cumulative fertility by cohort, Liaoning. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Fertility histories of the Great Leap Famine
Anthony Garnaut
University of Melbourne
Chart 1. Liaoning monthly trends
Monthly data
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
56/0 57/0 58/0 59/0 60/0 61/0 62/0 63/0 64/0 65/0fertility and infant mortality (per '000)
monthly infant mortality rate, normalised by n of 18-25yo interviewees
monthly fertility rate, normalised somehow by number of birthing age mothers
infant mortality, smoothed 12m
Chart 2. PFR of different age brackets, Liaoning
Partial fertility rate, 1957-83
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
PFR, 14-20 PFR, 14-23 PFR, 14-25 PFR, 14-30 PFR, 14-35
Chart 3. PFR and infant mortality, Liaoning
Partial fertility rate of 14-20 yo and infant mortality, 1957-79
0
1000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975-200
0
200
PFR, 14-20 PFR, 14-23 infant mortality of sample (rhs)
Chart 4. Cumulative fertility by cohort, Liaoning
Cumulative fertility, 1936-1946 cohorts, by yearnote that the cohort who started having kids prior to the famine widened their lead through
the 60s - they were ready to make the most of the changed nutrition environment
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971
single age fertilty rate (per '000)
Chart 5. Fertility of women of a given age, Liaoning
Fertility at a given age, by year, odd ages 17-25
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
single age fertilty rate (per '000)
Chart 6. Monthly monthly trends, Gansu
Monthly data
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
56/0 56/11 57/11 58/11 59/11 60/11 61/11 62/11 63/11 64/11
fertility and infant mortality (per
'000)
-4
1
monthly births of interviewees,
average = 1
monthly infant deaths, all ages by DOD, normalised, dodgy number
DOB of interviewees, deviation from 10yr avge
monthly fertility rate, normalised somehow by number of birthing age mothers
infant mortality, smoothed 12m
Chart 7. Partial fertility rate of different age brackets, Gansu
Partial fertility rate, 1957-83
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
PFR, 14-20 PFR, 14-23 PFR, 14-25 PFR, 14-30 PFR, 14-35
Chart 8. PFR for young women and infant mortality, Gansu
Partial fertility rate of 14-20 yo and infant mortality, 1957-79
0
1000
2000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975-200
0
200
PFR, 14-20 PFR, 14-23 infant mortality of sample (rhs)
Chart 9. Fertility of women of a given age, Gansu
Fertility at a given age, by year, odd ages 15-25again, sadly, our data only kicks in during the famine, but we can get a trend by what 19
years olds (orange) are doing each year)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1953 1958 1963 1968
single age fertilty rate (per '000)
21 23 25 19 17
Chart 10. F of women born in a given year, Gansu
Single year fertility, 1937,1941 and 1943 cohorts, by yearThe 1941 cohort hit the famine just as they were coming in high fertility (check infant mortality)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971
single age fertilty rate (per '000)
Chart 11. Infant mortality by mother’s cohort, Gansu
1936-1946 cohorts infant mortality, by year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971
single age fertilty rate (per '000)
average of sample 1936-38 1939-41 1942-44
Table 1. In-Depth Fertility Survey Phase II: sample of County 7 in Gansu
SC1 SC2 C1 C2Number of interviewees 38 33 36 33Average age of mother 33.1 35.7 36.7 37.5Interviewees with at least 1 birth 32 33 34 33Total no. of births 70 90 125 120Average no. of birth events 1.84 2.73 3.47 3.64