fertility desires and fertility outcomes

FERTILITY DESIRES AND FERTILITY OUTCOMESAuthor(s): Michael Bracher and Gigi SantowSource: Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 8, No. 1 (May 1991), pp. 33-49Published by: SpringerStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41110598 .

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Vol.8, No. 1, 1991 Journal of the Australian Population Association

FERTILITY DESIRES AND FERTILITY OUTCOMES

Michael Bracher Australian Family Project

Research School of Social Sciences The Australian National University GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601

Gigi Santow Health Transition Centre

National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University

Over the last 30 years Australian fertility rates have fallen more than could have been predicted from changes in the numbers of children desired by women when they first married. This paper charts changes in desired and completed fertility in Australia, matches originally desired fertility with that ultimately achieved and explores some factors which may affect the relation between fertility desires and fertility outcomes.

Introduction Studies which attempt to pinpoint changes in contemporary levels and

patterns of childbearing are hampered by the fact that family formation may take place over many years. Considerable movements in annual fertility rates can be caused by the postponement and subsequent recouping of births without correspondingly great changes in completed family size.

The movements in fertility which occurred in all Western countries after the Second World War led many demographers to investigate the possibility of forecasting fertility by supplementing information on past childbearing with information on fertility preferences and plans for future childbearing.

Longitudinal studies indicated that individuals' fertility expectations and aspirations may be highly unstable even over short periods of time (Goldberg et al. 1959; Freedman et al. 1965). Few researchers expected fertility preferences to remain unchanged in the face of time and circumstance; but many considered that, to the extent that individual errors counterbalance one another, fertility expectations could yet serve as useful predictors of fertility at the aggregate level. The success of attempts since the 1960s to use reported fertility desires, intentions and expectations to forecast future behaviour has been varied, and has tended to be greater at the aggregate than the individual level (Westoff et al. 1957; Whelpton et al. 1966; Westoff and Ryder 1977a; O'Connell and Rogers 1983; van de Giessen 1988).

Yet there are other reasons for studying reproductive preferences than the quest for validated measures which might be used to predict future fertility. A comparison of trends in reproductive desires or intentions and actual family

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building, for example, may shed light on the antecedents of fertility decline. Moreover, a comparison of the fertility achieved by individuals with their original desires may provide a useful starting place from which to analyse the sequential nature of decisions about family building.

In this paper we use data from a national survey of Australian women to examine changes in the fertility desired at the beginning of marital unions initiated since the 1950s. We then link individuals' desired fertility to the number of children they have ultimately borne. The aims of this descriptive article are threefold: to chart changes in desired and completed fertility; to match originally desired fertility with that ultimately achieved, both at the aggregate level and the level of the individual; and to explore some factors that may cause achieved fertility to match, or to diverge from, the fertility originally desired. In so doing we assess the potential fruitfulness of further exploration into the links between the two.

The data The Australian Family Project was commissioned by The Australian

National University to investigate the patterns, correlates and causes of declines in marriage and childbearing in Australia. A one-in-one-thousand national probability sample of private dwellings in Australia yielded slightly more than five thousand households which were screened to identify women aged 20-59 years who were usual residents of selected dwellings and thus eligible for a personal interview. Interviewing commenced in April 1986 and the average interview date was the 1st of July. Interviews were obtained from 2,547 women which represents 79 per cent of women identified as eligible and an estimated true response rate, adjusting for eligible women not identified during screening, of 75 per cent (Bracher 1987).

The core of the questionnaire was a collection of detailed life histories on such subjects as marital unions, childbearing and contraception. Respondents were asked the number of times they had been married or lived in a relationship without being married. They then provided such information on each of these marital unions as the dates delimiting the period of co-residence, the date of marriage (if applicable), whether they had thought at the beginning of the marital union that they would have children at some time, the number they had wanted and whether their husbands agreed. In the next section of the questionnaire, which dealt with children, respondents were asked the total number of children they had borne or who had lived with them for more than si* months. For each child they then reported such information as the date of birth, whether it was their own child or had been fostered or adopted in or was a step-child and, if the child were no longer living with the respondent, whether it had been fostered or adopted out.

Fertility decline The course of fertility decline in Australia is charted in Table 1, which

shows age- specific fertility rates over five-year periods since 1961 as calculated from the retrospective histories collected in the survey. For validity of comparison with official statistics only Australian-born children, and exposure in Australia, contribute to the rates. The upper age limit for

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inclusion in the survey of 59 years means that there is no information above age 35 before 1961 or above age 40 before 1966, and that information at ages 30-34 over 1956-61, 35-39 over 1961-66 and 40-44 over 1966-71 is incomplete. The lower limit of 20 means that information at ages 15-19 over the five years preceding interview is incomplete.

Table 1 Age-specific fertility rates per 1,000 women by period, Australia 1961-861

Period

Age '56-'61 '61-'66 '66-71 71-76 76-'81 '81-86

15-19 33 (5) 36 (5) 41 (5) 41 (5) 32 (4) 40* (7) 20-24 209 (13) 197 (12) 155 (9) 147 (9) 121 (8) 112 (7) 25-29 228 (14) 212 (13) 195 (11) 176 (9) 169* (9) 148 (8) 30-34 132 (16) 125 (10) 104 (9) 94 (8) 100* (7) 83 (6) 35-39 81 (12) 44 (6) 25 (5) 28 (4) 30 (4) 40-44 10 (4) 8 (3) 7 (2) 4 (2)

Total fertility ratios2 AFP 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 ABS3 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.9

1 Binomial standard errors shown in parentheses 2 Calculated to oldest age in table 3 ABS: Births (Cat No.3301.0) 1987 *

Significantly different from ABS estimate (a=0.05)

To avoid the loss of data, and without significant loss of accuracy given the concentration of the interviewing period, calendar periods were defined in terms of years before interview. Since the average interview date was just one day after the national census, the periods approximate to five-year intercensal periods. The official estimates shown at the foot of the table refer to five-year calendar rather than intercensal periods, and are thus displaced earlier by six months.

The effect of this displacement on comparability with official statistics is likely to be less important than errors in reporting dates of birth or in the omission of children. Nevertheless, the comparison with official total fertility ratios at the foot of the table is encouraging. A comparison of survey and official age-specific fertility rates indicated that only three of the survey estimates differed significantly from the official estimates.

Fertility has declined for all women except teenagers since the 1950s, and most markedly in the twenties. It fell by nearly one-half at ages 20-24 between the late 1950s and the early 1980s and by about one-third at ages 25- 29. The largest absolute drop at ages 20-24 was recorded in both the survey and national statistics during the 1960s.

Part of this decline may be due to changes in marriage patterns. Age at first marriage has been rising since the early 1970s (Bracher 1990). As a result, over the 1971-76 period, women were married, on average, for 37 of the 60 months between exact ages 20 and 25; over the 1981-86 period they

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were married for just 25 of those 60 months (Bracher and Santow 1990: Table 5).

Table 2 therefore shows fertility rates according to marital or conjugal status. When tabulating births and age- and period-specific months of exposure, women were classified according to whether they were married and living with their husbands, were living in a defacto relationship, or were not in a marital union at all (that is, were never-married, separated, widowed or divorced and not living with a partner).

Table 2 Age-specific fertility rates per 1,000 women by conjugal status and period, Australia 1961-861

Period Rate Age '56-'61 '61-'66 '66-71 f71-76 76-f81 f81-'86

Married 15-19 473 (61) 451 (48) 394 (41) 278 (35) 366 (51) 264 (56) 20-24 343 (20) 332 (18) 254 (14) 224 (13) 210 (13) 238 (15) 25-29 261 (15) 238 (14) 225 (13) 209 (11) 207 (11) 194 (11) 30-34 149 (18) 133 (11) 116 (10) 103 (9) 115 (8) 95 (7) 35-39 86 (14) 49 (7) 28 (5) 28 (5) 34 (5) 40-44 11 (5) 7 (3) 7 (3) 4 (2)

Not 15-19 3 (2) 2 (1) 6 (2) 16 (3) 14 (3) 23 (5) married2 20-24 6 (4) 9 (4) 19 (5) 18 (5) 20 (5) 23 (5)

25-29 42 (17) 43 (17) 16 (10) 25 (9) 27 (8) 25 (7) 30-34 14 (15) 56 (22) 0 35 (14) 16 (8) 26 (9)

Not in 15-19 3 (2) 1 (1) 6 (2) 8 (2) 6 (2) 16 (5) union3 20-24 6 (4) 7 (4) 15 (5) 9 (4) 6 (3) 16 (4)

25-29 12 (9) 29 (15) 10 (8) 24 (10) 19 (8) 6 (4) 30-34 0 0 30 (14) 18 (10) 7 (5)

Defacto 15-19 - - 251 (60) 188 (45) 99 (36) 20-24 87 (33) 77 (21) 49 (15) 25-29 ... 28 (22) 55 (26) 78 (23) 30-34 - - - - 11 (12) 76 (28)

* Binomial standard errors shown in parentheses 2 Includes defacto 3 Neither married nor defacto - fewer than 50 person-years of exposure

Fertility within marriage, like overall fertility, has fallen at all ages, a notable decline occurring below age 25 during the 1960s« On the other hand, the fertility of unmarried women, although very low by contrast with that of married women, has risen below age 25 since the mid-1950s.

Some unmarried women, however, live with a partner in a de facto marriage, and such unions have become increasingly prevalent. Between 1971-76 and 1981-86, for example, the average duration spent in such a union at ages 20-24 rose from two to seven months and the proportion of time in the unmarried state which was spent in a defacto marriage rose from 11 to 20 per cent (Bracher and Santow 1990). The fertility of women not living in a marital union of any kind, as shown in the third panel of the table, has moved very little. Fertility within de facto unions, while lower than

36



within marriage, is markedly higher than fertility outside a marital union. As with marital fertility it is highest in the teens; unlike marital fertility it appears to be falling below age 25 and rising above it.

Desired family size The questionnaire did not contain a battery of questions on fertility ideals,

preferences and expectations; notions, it has been suggested, which though clear to those who frame survey questions, are often poorly grasped by those who are called upon to answer them (Goldberg et al. 1959). Rather, we employed the least hypothetical question possible, seeking to identify the number of children desired at particular significant and relevant events in respondents' lives, namely, their entries into marital unions.

For each marital union respondents were asked 'Thinking back to when you first (started living together/got married)1 did you think you would like to have a family at some time?1. Those who answered positively were then asked 'At that time, how many children did you yourself want to have?'. Despite implied pressure to choose a single number, 12 per cent of responses were given as ranges. A further ten per cent were given as 'no particular number' and three per cent as 'don't know'. These questions were asked before the respondent had reported on her actual childbearing.

The upper panel of Table 3 shows the percentage distributions of family size desired at the beginning of first marriages by women who had not previously lived in a de facto relationship. Means were calculated from integer responses and the midpoints of ranges.

Among married women the one-child family has always been as unpopular as childlessness (see also Ware 1973 and Young 1974). Conversely, the proportion of women wanting exactly two children has always been high, and rose from one-quarter during the period 1956-61 to one-third during 1981-86.2 A contraction in desired family size is further evidenced by the increase in the proportion desiring three children at the expense of four or more. Among women who married during the late 1950s, for example, more wanted four than any other number, but among women who married during the early 1980s more than twice as many reported wanting two as wanting four.

The average has fallen from a little above to a little below three children. Indeed, what is surprising is not that fertility desires have fallen, but that they have fallen so little.

One objection to data on fertility desires is that they merely represent a post hoc rationalization of the family size that has been achieved. We have three reasons for believing that such rationalization was not a major determinant of the responses elicited on desired family size by the Australian Family Project. First, women married the longest time ago arc likely to have completed their families and, according to the rationalization argument, might

1 These are alternative wordings: the interviewer used the one which was appropriate to the particular marital union under discussion.

2 An increase in the proportion of married women considering two children ideal was already evident in 1971 (Ware 1973).

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Table 3 Percentage distributions of family size desired at the beginning of the first union, by period and type of union

Desired Period of union Union Family f56-'61 61-66 '66-71 71-76 76-'81 '81-'86

Size

Marriage 0 2 3 2 2 7 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 24 29 35 33 32 35 3 7 10 6 10 17 17 4 27 21 20 19 16 15 5+888542

Low range» 7 8 6 12 9 11 High range5 14 4 3 3 9

Mean 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.8 No particular no. 14 10 10 6 6 4

Don't know 9 5 5 6 4 5 (N) (233) (279) (358) (305) (204) (148)

De facto union 0 - 6 12 9 9 followed by 1 - - 6 6 6 2 marriage 2 - 21 25 33 35

3 20 5 10 8 4 - 10 16 15 20 5+ - - 3 8 6 2

Low range - 0 4 6 8 High range - 9 0 2 4

Mean - - 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6 No particular no. - - 1 6 10 1 5

Don't know - - 9 14 13 7 (N) (7) (6) (27) (63) (87) (53)

Defacto union 0 - 31 30 29 20 1 7 11 7 3 2 - 10 20 31 24 3 7 6 3 4 4 0 3 4 8 5+ - - 0 0 3 4

Low range - - 18 6 0 10 High range 0 3 0 2

Mean - - 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.0 No particular no. 0 5 2 4

Don't know - 26 16 22 20 (N) (1) (2) (11) (30) (45) (90)

a Low range: 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 2-3, 2-4 (midpoint < 3.0) b High range: 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 4-5, 4-6, 5-6 (midpoint > 3.0) - Based on fewer than 10 cases

simply report the number of children they had borne. The table shows, however, that older respondents were actually more likely than younger ones to report that, while they had wanted children, they had no particular numerical goal: thus, for example, the proportions reporting 'no particular number' falls from 14 per cent of women first married during the late 1950s

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to ten per cent of women married during the late 1960s and to six per cent of women married after 1970. This decline is consistent with an increase in the use of contraception to plan families (Bracher and Santow 1991) and has also been reported in earlier Australian work (Young 1974). Secondly, the percentage reporting that they did not know how many children they had originally wanted decreases from the distant to the recent marriage cohorts, consistent with a shrinking of the period of recall but not with a mere reiteration of completed fertility. Thirdly, the distributions of desired family size are strongly bimodal, with concentrations on two and four children. While this may well reflect a real desire for even numbers of children or for a balanced sex composition, such distributions in no way resemble those of achieved family size.

The second panel of the table shows the family size desired at the beginning of first unions that started as defacto relationships but were later formalized by marriage. Such unions were uncommon before the 1970s.

Among women whose first marriage began as a defacto relationship more women wanted to remain childless than to bear only one child. Apart from this, the distributions of desired family size mimic those of women who were married from the outset, with two being the most common desired family size, followed by four, with three being relatively unpopular and with average desired family sizes only a little smaller than for first marriages. At first sight, one might ask whether, from the relative security of the ensuing marriage, respondents were imputing to the beginning of cohabitation fertility desires that might more accurately refer to the beginning of the marriage. Yet defacto relationships are not converted into marriages at random. Many couples already intend to marry at some later date when they first start living together and it is perhaps those very couples who plan to have children who are the ones to marry.

The lowest panel shows the family size desired at the beginning of first unions which were de facto relationships not subsequently formalized by marriage.3 Only in these unions do sizeable proportions of women want no children at all, or not know how many children they had originally wanted. Nevertheless, just as these unions have become more prevalent - they comprised fewer than eight per cent of first unions during 1971-76 but 31 per cent of those contracted during 1981-86 - so have some of them become more like marriages, at least in terms of desired fertility. The average desired family size of those giving a numerical response has risen from 1.3 to 2.0.

After stating the number of children they had wanted when they were first married or cohabiting, respondents were asked whether their spouses had agreed and, if they had not, how many children their spouses would have preferred. Seventy-seven per cent said that their spouses had agreed, seven per cent that they did not know and only 16 per cent answered that their spouses had disagreed. Sadly, the massive proportion reporting agreement reduces the analytic utility of these data.

3 Had the survey taken place a little later, some of the defacto unions formed in 1981-86 would have been converted to marriages, but probably none of the earlier unions.

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Differentials in desired family size

Undoubtedly other factors have a bearing on desired family size. For example, if women many relatively young precisely because they are keen to have children, or if those who postpone marriage develop priorities which would conflict with a large family, then desired family size may fall with increasing age at marriage. Secondly, it may also fall with the level of education: as early as 1971, better educated wives were less likely than other women to consider childlessness a disaster and less likely to consider a one- child family as very undesirable (Ware 1973). Thirdly, despite wanting to have children with their new spouse, women embarking on a second or subsequent marriage are likely to take existing children into account when planning a new family.

Table 4 Average desired family size and percentage wanting no children, by marriage order and previous fertility, age at marriage and period of marriage

Marriage Desired family size Percentage wanting none and Age at

fertility marriage Period of marriage Period of marriage (56-'66 '66-76 76-'86 '56-'66 '66-76 76-'86

Marriage 1, 15-19 3.1 3.0 2.9 0 3 4 childless 20-24 3.1 2.8 2.7 3 3 6

25-29 3.4 2.4 2.2 5 7 14 All 3.1 2.9 2.6 2 3 7 (N) (421) (634) (456) (518) (742) (504)

Marriage 2+, 25-29 - 1.5 2.4 9 5 childless AH - 1.5 2.1 - 19 8

(N) (8) (14) (27) (8) (15) (33) Marriage 2+, 25-29 - 0.8 1.3 - 46 34 children 30-34 0.4 64

35-39 - 0.2 0.3 - 72 71 All 1.1 0.8 0.5 24 49 63

(N) (12) (47) (82) (15) (50) (88)

- Based on fewer than 10 cases

Table 4 shows the average desired family sizes and the proportions of women wanting no children according to order of marriage and previous fertility, age at marriage and period of marriage. In the table, defacto unions that progressed to marriage have been classified with unions which began as formal marriages; we ignore de facto unions which did not progress to marriage both because they are still relatively rare and short-lived and because most childbearing still occurs within marriage. The sample sizes shown below the means are numbers of numerical responses while those below the proportions are total numbers of responses. Previous fertility was calculated by comparing the childbearing histories with the marriage histories, ignoring children who had been adopted or fostered out but including children who had been adopted or fostered in. Ten-year periods were employed in the table to conserve cell sizes. Even so, the numbers of women who had borne a

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child before first marrying, or were still childless at the beginning of a second or subsequent marriage, were small. It is thus impossible to examine the effect of order of marriage independent of age at marriage and parity.

At least since 1966 desired family size has varied inversely with age at marriage. Thus, for example, childless women first married in their teens during 1966-76 wanted an average of 3.0 children while those married in their late twenties wanted 2.4 children; those wanting no children at all comprised three per cent of the former group but seven per cent of the latter. The effect of age at marriage is stronger during the 1976-86 period, and persists amongst fertile women who were marrying for a second or subsequent time. Among women who were childless at first marriage, the difference between the desired fertility of the youngest and the oldest brides has increased over time, and desired fertility has fallen more among the oldest brides than among the youngest.

Although the numbers are small the contention that previous fertility is taken into account in planning a new family also seems to be borne out by the data. Women aged 25-29 at a second or subsequent marriage during 1976- 86, for example, wanted 2.4 children if they were childless but 1.3 children if they were not, and the proportions wanting no children at all were five and 34 per cent respectively.

Table 5 shows the average family size desired by childless women at the beginning of the first marriage, and the proportions of women who initially wanted no children at all, according to their age at marriage, period of marriage and level of education. In line with the earlier findings, average desired family sizes tend to fall with increasing age at first marriage, within each educational group.

Table 5 Average family size desired by childless women at first marriage, and the percentage wanting no children, by education, age at marriage and period of marriage

Desired family size Percentage wanting none Education Age at

marriage Period of marriage Period of marriage '56-'66 '66-76 76-'86 '56-'66 '66-76 76-'86

Primary or 15-19 3.4 3.1 3.0 0 2 7 some 20-24 3.2 2.9 2.3 4 4 11 secondary All 3.2 3.0 2.5 3 3 11

(N) (181) (172) (74) (217) (207) (79) School 15-19 2.9 3.0 2.9 0 3 3 certificate 20-24 2.8 3.0 2.6 2 15

All 2.9 3.0 2.6 12 5 (N) (149) (275) (182) (189) (313) (203)

Higher school 15-19 2.7 2.9 2.9 0 5 3 certificate 20-24 3.4 2.5 2.8 4 6 5 or higher 25-29 - 2.1 2.2 - 10 16

All 3.3 2.5 2.7 4 6 7 (N) (91) (187) (200) (111) (222) (222)

- Based on fewer than 10 cases

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Desired family size, however, shows a more complex relationship with education. Controlling for age at marriage, fertility desires did fall with increasing education among women marrying during the 1966-76 period. But over the 1976-86 period, the average family size desired by women who married at ages 15-19 did not vary with education. Moreover, among women married at 20-24, desired fertility actually rose with education, from 2.3 amongst women with the least schooling, to 2.6 amongst women with the school certificate and to 2.8 amongst those who had completed secondary schooling. One explanation for such a rise may lie in the fact that only women who marry contribute to the table and that age at marriage has risen the most steeply amongst the most educated. Women with little schooling who marry in their early twenties are late marriers relative to their educational peers, which might lower their fertility desires; while women with completed secondary schooling who marry at the same age are early marriers relative to their own educational peers, which might raise their fertility desires.

Desired fertility and achieved fertility Such factors as the bimodality of the distributions of desired family size

mean that ultimate fertility outcomes will diverge to some extent from original fertility desires. The question remains, however, whether completed family size varies systematically according to the number of children desired at the beginning of marriage.

In addressing this question, attention is restricted to women who married only once so that discrepancies between desires and achievements will reflect such factors as contraceptive failure and the adjustment of goals during the course of marriage and family building, but not the effect of marital disruption and remarriage.

All respondents aged 50 or older, and respondents younger than 50 who thought they would not have any more children or who were unsure if they would, were asked why they had stopped having children when they did. The removal of women who were still contemplating childbearing leaves 1665 women who judged their families to be complete. In addition, the 477 childless women younger than 40 were asked, irrespective of their marital status, whether they thought they would have any children. Ten per cent answered in the negative and 15 per cent did not know.

Because of the possibility that women might later decide to have more children the responses to questions on further childbearing were incorporated into a more comprehensive set of checks. Women who had undergone tubai sterilization or hysterectomy, who were menopausal, whose husbands had undergone vasectomy or who were aged 40 or older at interview, were classified as having completed their families. Of the remainder, women aged 30 or older who were adamant they would have no more children or, if they were childless, were adamant they would have no children at all, were also deemed to have completed their childbearing. Thus, fecund women in their thirties who were uncertain about their future fertility, and all fecund women in their twenties regardless of their stated intentions, are excluded from the analyses that follow.

The upper panel of Table 6 compares average family sizes desired at first

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marriage with average family sizes at interview. In addition, since it is misleading to compare the fertility desires and outcomes of women who are still bearing children, the lower panel restricts the comparison to women whose childbearing is complete. This restriction affects measures based on women married for less than ten years at interview. Women first married between 1976 and 1981, for example, had borne on average 1.5 children while those among them who had completed their families had borne 1.9 children. Moreover, the one-third of this cohort who had completed their families had originally wanted fewer children (2.3) than the average for that marriage cohort (2.5). The following comments, and indeed all remaining tabulations, are restricted to women who have completed their families.

Table 6 Average family size desired at first marriage and achieved by interview for ever-married women and women who have completed childbearing, by period of first marriage

Period of marriage •56-'61 '61-'66 '66-71 71-76 76-'81 '81-'86

Ever-married women Desired family size 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.7 Completed Family size 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.7 (N) (240) (284) (375) (354) (305) (253)

Ever-married women who have completed childbearing Desired family size 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.3 1.1 Completed family size 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 1.9 0.7 (N) (240) (284) (358) (281) (104) (18)

Both desired and achieved family sizes have fallen, but achieved fertility has fallen more than that originally desired. Thus, desired fertility fell by around one-half of a child from a high of 3.2 among women married in the late 1950s4. Achieved fertility, however, fell by around twice this amount from the same figure of 3.2 to reach 1.9 among the marriage cohort of the late 1970s. Only one-third of this cohort had completed their childbearing and the remaining two-thirds may by now have raised the cohort's average fertility, but the conclusion still remains that completed family sizes are undershooting original goals by close to one-half of a child.

Table 7 shows distributions of completed family size by period of first marriage and the number of children desired at the beginning of marriage. Attention is restricted to once-married women to remove any effect of marital disruption and remarriage and ten-year periods are used to conserve numbers. FeW women who first married during 1981-86 were adjudged, according to our scheme, to have completed their families, and we therefore employ periods starting five years earlier than those employed earlier. The distributions defined on the earliest ten-year period, 1951-61, did not differ from those based on all unions contracted before mid- 1961, and the first period was thus broadened to include the 1 12 unions before 1951.

4 The increase from 2.5 to 2.7 between the late 1970s and early 1980s is not statistically significant.

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Table 7 Percentage distributions of completed family by period of marriage and family size desired at first marriage, once-married women only

Period Desired of Family Completed family size Mean (se) N %

marriage Size 0 12 3 4+ Total

-1961 0 - 8 2 1 - 6 1 2 5 5 50 26 14 100 2.5 (.1) 120 24 3 3 9 28 38 23 100 2.9 (.2) 35 7 4+ 1 2 18 28 51 100 3.7 (.1) 156 31

Range 3 6 23 37 31 100 3.4 (.3) 40 8 No particular no. 0 1 19 29 51 100 3.8 (.2) 85 17

Don't know 0 13 16 30 41 100 3.2 (.2) 44 9 Total 2 5 28 29 37 100 3.3 (.1) 494 100

1961-71 0 32 10 44 0 14 100 1.5 (.3) 15 3 1 12 10 50 21 7 100 2.0 (.3) 16 3 2 3 12 56 22 7 100 2.2 (.1) 181 31 3 2 4 42 34 18 100 2.7 (.1) 51 9 4+ 0 4 29 38 28 100 3.1 (.1) 176 30


Don't know 3 6 35 20 35 100 2.8 (.2) 29 5 Total 3 8 42 28 19 100 2.6 (.1) 584 100

1971-81 0 62 0 33 4 0 100 0.8 (.2) 20 5 1 0 33 63 0 5 100 1.8 (.2) 17 5 2 4 15 60 18 4 100 2.0 (.1) 117 32 3 0 7 39 40 14 100 2.7 (.2) 32 9 4+ 1 4 36 41 18 100 2.7 (.1) 83 23


Don't know 4 8 48 37 4 100 2.3 (.2) 20 6 Total 6 10 48 26 9 100 2.2 (.1) 363 100

Based on fewer than 10 cases

The percentage distributions of family size desired at the beginning of marriages formed during each period are shown on the extreme right of the table. They reflect the contraction of desired family size, the increasing propensity to report a range and the decreasing propensity to report desired fertility in non-numerical terms, that are already familiar from Table 3. The last row in each panel shows the distributions of completed family size. The fertility decline demonstrated by the falling rates of Tables 1 and 2 is reflected here in shrinking family size and a shift from a distribution exhibiting similar proportions with two, three and four or more children to a sharp distribution peaking on two.

Within each marriage cohort, average completed family size rises monotonically with desired fertility. Yet there is considerable variation. The few women who reported wanting no children or only one have tended to exceed that number, although the extent by which they overshoot has fallen. Women who reported wanting two children have become increasingly likely to bear just this number, the proportions with two-child families rising from

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50 to 56 to 60 per cent Simultaneously, more now have fewer than two, the proportions rising from 10 to 15 to 19 per cent. Indeed, the proportion of women from the 1971-81 marriage cohort bearing fewer than two children balanced those bearing more than two, so that the average achieved family size was indeed 2.0.

Women who wanted four or more children when they married were indeed inclined to have more children than other women, but major adjustments have occurred in this group. Over the three cohorts their average family size has fallen from 3.7 to 3.1 and to 2.7 children and the proportions who remained on target have fallen from 51 to 28 to 18 per cent. The average completed family size of those who initially stated a range5 has also fallen, from 3.4 to 2.6 and to 2.2 children, and the mode has shifted from three to two children. The modal family size of women who gave non-numerical goals shifted between the first two periods from four or more to two children, and the mean has continued to decline.

Just as more women now say they want two children, more women are actually having two children, whatever their original desire. Yet convergence to the two-child family is reflected more strongly in aggregate-level outcomes than desires, and agreement at the level of the individual between desires and outcomes is unimpressive.

Sequential family building Undoubtedly many factors intervene to create 'inconsistencies' (Westoff

and Ryder 1977b) between original fertility desires and ultimate outcomes. The factors addressed here by no means form a comprehensive account: rather, they serve to illustrate various pathways through which discrepancies may come about

Four aspects were explored. First, later marriers may be less likely to achieve their original intentions because delayed marriage may signal the previous establishment of other interests that might compete with childbearing; alternatively, early marriers may exceed their original intentions because they have more time in which to experience contraceptive failure. Secondly, it is possible that the better educated are more likely to achieve fertility goals than the less well educated, either because their original goals result from greater reflection or because they use contraception to greater effect to achieve those goals (Bracher and Santow 1991). Thirdly, numerical goals may be adjusted according to the sexes of children already borne in order to 'balance1 the sexes. Fourthly, women may be more likely to achieve their original goals if they and their spouses had been in agreement.6

Table 8 shows, for once-married women with completed childbearing who originally wanted two children, the proportions who bore fewer, the same number or more children, according to their age at marriage and period of marriage. Two children is a modest fertility goal, achievable even with

5 The range here does not include those goals originally reported as a range but which fall into the group 4+.

6 A fifth factor might be remarriage, which we treat here as a nuisance factor, but an overall picture would be incomplete were it not taken into consideration.

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quite late ages at marriage7, and was indeed the modal family size of all the women who had originally wanted this family size. Nevertheless, a clear gradient appears, at least among women married after 1961. Women married at 20-24 were the most likely to bear just two children: women married at younger ages were more likely to overshoot this target; while women married at older ages were more likely not to achieve it

Table 8 Percentage distributions of completed family size of women who wanted two children at first marriage, according to age at marriage, once-married women who have completed childbearing

Period of Age at first Completed family size marriage marriage <2 2 3+

-1961 15-19 9 47 45 20-24 8 53 40

1961-71 15-19 12 48 40 20-24 10 64 27 25+ 34 47 19

1971-81 15-19 17 45 38 20-24 14 70 16 25+ 31 55 15

Table 9 is similar to Table 8, but stratifies on the level of schooling. Within each marriage cohort the percentage of women achieving exactly two children rose with the level of schooling, while the proportion exceeding that number fell with the level of schooling.

Table 9 Percentage distributions of completed family size of women who wanted two children at first marriage, according to schooling, once- married women who have completed childbearing

Period of Level of Completed family size marriage schooling <2 2 3+

-1961 < School certificate 8 47 45 School certificate 13 52 36

1961-71 < School certificate 12 47 41 School certificate 13 62 25 Higher school certificate 25 60 15

1971-81 < School certificate 20 55 25 School certificate 18 58 24 Higher school certificate 19 66 15

7 There might be a slight selection for fecundity here since many brides are pregnant at marriage: if not marrying until a comparatively advanced age indicates that pregnancy has not previously occurred then the later marriers may be less innately fecund than the early marriers.

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Table 10 shows the proportions of women with two children who progressed to a third according to the sexes of the first two children, the respondent's original fertility desires and period of marriage. Among women who originally wanted two children, the proportion progressing to a third dropped first among women who already had a girl and a boy and later among women with two boys or two girls. Indeed, the greater willingness of women marrying during the 1960s to stop at two children if they had already borne a boy and a girl undoubtedly contributed to the fertility decline charted in Table 1 and Table 2.

Table 10 Percentages of women with two children bearing a third child, according to sexes of the first two, desired family size and period of marriage, once- married women who have completed childbearing

Period of Sexes of 1st Desired family size marriage 2 children 2 3+

-1961 Same 49 83 Different 42 77

1961-71 Same 44 71 Different 21* 65

1971-81 Same 24 53 Different 27 49

All Same 39 69 Different 30* 61*

Significantly lower than if children were same sex (a=0.05)

Just as we had thought that a balanced sex composition might reinforce the decision to stop at two children, so had we wondered whether it might lead women with initially higher goals to revise them downward. This hypothesis is borne out overall, with more women who had originally wanted more than two children stopping at two if they already had a boy and a girl, but there was no trend by marriage cohort.

Table 1 1 Percentages of women achieving their desired family size according to their spouses1 initial agreement, once-married women who have completed childbearing

Period of Desired family size marriage Spouse 2 4+

1961 Agreed 51 53 Disagreed 38 38

1961-71 Agreed 56 32 Disagreed 54 21

1971-81 Agreed 61 21 Disagreed 55 15

All Agreed 56 39 Disagreed 51 23*

Significantly lower than if spouse had agreed (a=0.05)

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Finally, Table 1 1 shows the percentages of women achieving original goals of two or four or more children according to whether their spouses had agreed with those goals, by period of marriage. This analysis is plagued by the fact that, as mentioned before, very few women reported any disagreement No cohort trends are evident although women were more likely to achieve their originally desired family size if their husbands agreed. The only statistically significant finding is that women who had originally wanted families of four or more were less likely to achieve them without their husbands' agreement.

Conclusions The family size desired at first marriage in Australia has fallen very little

over the last 30 years. Desired family size is still closer to three than two children, and very few women report wanting fewer than two. Given that fertility has declined markedly since the early 1960s and fell below replacement during the late 1970s, the constancy of fertility desires may be one of the more surprising aspects of the present analysis.

It is possible that the responses to the question on the number of children originally wanted signal the persistence of a desire for families of a size not very different from the ones that the respondents grew up in, perhaps modified by a notion that it is desirable to balance the sexes. This would mean that change in fertility behaviour has preceded change in the desire for children and raises the possibility that there is an untapped pool of maternal feeling. It is also possible that, at the beginning of marriage when the experience of being married is itself something of an unknown, let alone the experience of being a parent, responses to questions on future intended fertility say less about individual intentions than they do about normative pressure to become a parent (Rindfuss et al. 1988). Another possibility is that, given rising ages at marriage and falling proportions marrying, those women who do marry are selected to some extent on the basis of wanting the conventional Australian family of at least two, but probably more, children.

Whatever the reason, originally desired family size exceeds completed fertility and has done so for many years. Such a gap has also been observed in other studies. Westoff and Ryder (1977b) believed that couples failed to anticipate the extent to which times would be unpropitious for childbearing and thus made the understandable but frequently invalid assumption that the future world would be indistinguishable from the present. The latter cannot be generally true for women marrying in Australia in the late 1970s and early 1980s when the economic climate was widely perceived to be worsening, although those women who married may have been more sanguine about their futures than those who did not. Moreover, knowing that one is moving into difficult economic times is rather different from appreciating the effects they may have on married life and the rearing of children.

Fertility intentions change in response both to period factors and personal circumstances (Rindfuss et al. 1988). One can only speculate on the progressive adjustments of fertility desires and plans as marriages mature and children are, or are not, born; as couples defer childbearing while the wife works to service a mortgage; as children prove to be a joy or a burden; as

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couples try yet again for a girl, or a boy, or are surprised by an unexpected pregnancy; as the husband is retrenched or the wife returns to work; or as other competing interests achieve dominance at the expense of childbearing. Indeed, given the forces which shape individual families, it may be that the really interesting cases are not the couples who fail to achieve their original intentions, but the couples who do achieve them. Certainly, a more fruitful line of further enquiry than a search for congruity between fertility desires and outcomes may be an analysis which takes into account changes in both individual and period circumstances. In such an analysis the number of children desired at the beginning of marriage would be merely one element in a complex equation.

References Bracher, M.D. 1987. The Australian Family Project. Journal of the Australian Population

Association 4:106-122. Bracher, M.D. 1990. Explaining first marriage trends in Australia. Journal of the Australian

Population Association 7:128-150. Bracher, M. and G. Santo w. 1990. The family histories of Australian women. European Journal

of Population 6:227-256. Bracher, M. and G. Santow. 1991. Accidental pregnancy, side effects and dissatisfaction:

premature discontinuation of contraception in Australia. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Meetings, Washington DC, 19-21 March.

Freedman, K., L.C. Coombs and L. Bumpass. 1963. Stability and change in expectations about family size: a longitudinal study. Demography 2:250-275.

Goldberg, D., H. Sharp and R. Freedman. 1959. The stability and reliability of expected family size data. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 37:369-385.

O'Connell, M. and C.C. Rogers. 1983. Assessing cohort birth expectations data from the current population survey. Demography 20:369-384.

Rindfiiss, R.R., S.P. Morgan and G. Swicegood. 1988. First Births in America. Changes in the Timing of Parenthood. Berkeley, California: University of California Press.

van de dessen, H. 1988. Birth expectations as a guide for fertility hypotheses in population projections. Paper presented at the IIASA Conference on 'Future Changes in Population Age Structure1, Sopron, Hungary, 18-21 October.

Ware, H. 1973. The limits of acceptable family size: evidence from Melbourne, Australia. Journal of Biosocial Science 5:309-328.

Westoff, CF., E.G. Mishler and E.L. Kelly. 1957. Preferences in size of family and eventual fertility twenty years after. American Journal of Sociology 62(5):49 1-497.

Westoff, CF. and N.B. Ryder. 1977a. The Contraceptive Revolution. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Westoff, CF. and N.B. Ryder. 1977b. The predictive validity of reproductive intentions. Demography 14:431-453.

Whelpton, P.K., A.A. Campbell and J.E. Patterson. 1966. Fertility and Family Planning in the United States. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Young, CM. 1974. Numbers of children planned, expected and preferred by women in Melbourne. Journal of Biosocial Science 6:295-304.

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