feeding 9 billion
TRANSCRIPT
Feeding 9+ Billion
Prof. Lindsay Falvey FTSE
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www.ifpri.org/millionsfedRunning out of land
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What is Changing?
Environmental Change
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www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedHumanity’s greatest challenge is to produce 60% more food by 2050 without destroying
the environment
800 million hungry; 1.2 billion extreme poverty
9 Billion need 50% more food and energy
Increasing risks of floods and droughts
www.ifpri.org/millionsfedImportance to australia
www.ifpri.org/millionsfedA Confused verbal marketplace
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www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedModern food systems are dynamic,
complex and fundamentally important to security and survival
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Famine drives conflict
Map: UK MoD
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Heightened Risks
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www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedDRIVERS OF FOOD SUPPLY
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Food policy developments in 2015-16 Sustainable Development GoalsGlobal goals that call for local action
COP21Commitments to slow GHG emissions
WTO ministerial meetingPledged to eliminate distortionary trade policiesLow oil & food prices
Oil: Lowest in 11 yearsFood: Falling for 4th year
Refugee crisisOver 8 million Syrians food
insecure +
Slow economic growthDriven by slowdown in emerging economies
2015Climate changeEl Niño: Ethiopia’s
worst drought in 30 years
Source: Fan 2016
www.ifpri.org/millionsfedHistorical Modes of food production
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Technology(Sachs, 2015)
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www.ifpri.org/millionsfedTechnology is critical for a global food system in sustainable development
New food system
Efficient
Inclusive
Climate-smart
Sustainable
Nutrition- and health-driven
Business-friendly
Over half of SDGs relate to food security and nutrition
Source: Fan 2016
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CGIAR: 10,000 staff, 96 countries
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Wheat Rust: 117 million hectares protected; >60 million households food secure
Asia 1965-85: income up 190%; food security for 1.8 billion
Improved Maize: now 75% of land under cereal cultivation
Cassava Mosaic Virus & Mealybug: yields up 40%; 29 million fed
Re-Greening the Sahel: > 5 million hectares transformed; 3 million additional people fed
Argentina Pampas: 22 million hectares sustainable; world leader in soybean production
Indo-Gangetic Plain: 1.8 million hectares; income gains $340 per household
Bangladesh: 67% reduction in well costs; doubled rice production; 22 million more fed
China: Yield increases of 15-31%; 63% of rice is hybrids; 60 million more fed
Tilapia Philippines: increased 186%; benefitted 19-23 million consumers
Land-tenure reform in China 1978-84: grain up 34%; incomes by 137%
CGIAR: Examples of Impact
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ILRI Offices
Main campuses: Nairobi and Addis Ababa Offices in 16 other countries
www.ifpri.org/millionsfedAnimal source foods: 5 of 6 highest value global commodities (total value of 5=USD715
billion)
FAOSTAT 2015(values for 2013)
Cow milk has overtaken rice
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Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year
More Livestock Products Demand
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Connecting the Milk GridSmallholder dairy in India
1970–1996
• Challenge:
• Innovation:• Impact:
Author: Kenda Cunningham
Dairy demand outpacing supply; smallholders unable to access national dairy markets
Creation of a national milk grid and organization of dairy cooperatives to improve production and marketing
India becomes a top global dairy producer; incomes double for 9 million direct beneficiaries, 73% of whom are landless farmers
ND
DB
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Conquering the Cattle PlagueThe global effort to eradicate rinderpest1950–2001
• Challenge:
• Innovation:• Impact:
Authors: Peter Roeder and Karl Rich
Highly contagious livestock disease killing 95% of the animals it infects as it spreads across Asia and Africa
Coordinated global effort to develop improved vaccine, surveillance systems, and protect livestock-based livelihoods
Only time an infectious disease has been eradicated since smallpox; 40 million poor livestock keepers benefitted
Pet
er R
oede
r
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www.ifpri.org/millionsfedNOVEL VACCINE PRODUCTION
Infection Immune response to infection
Immune to re-infection
Candidate vaccine antigens (antigen discovery)
Proof-of-concept vaccine trials(antigen delivery)
Antibodies and
immune T-cells
Infection or vaccine trials
Both approaches
www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedNew tools allow us to look in new places for sources of variation – including wildlife
Comparative gene network and sequence analysis allows to ask new kinds of questions about genomes – eg “what is different about this (group of) species compared to all other mammals”
“traditional” linkage mapping requires crosses – so initial discovery is limited to variants within a speciesCow NDama KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSPLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Cow Boran KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Human KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCEREHSTVPWFVKQCIEAVEK Pig KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCERENSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Chicken KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHLVCEHENSTVPQFVRQCIKAVER Salmon KFISRRPSMKTLQEKGIIKDRVFGCHLLALCEREGTTVPKFVRQCVEAVEK
www.ifpri.org/millionsfedwww.ifpri.org/millionsfedHow Will We Feed Nine Billion?
•Sustained research inputs
•De-commoditizing traded food
•National food security planning
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Acknowledgements:•ILRI, IFPRI, CGIAR•Julian Cribb•J. Sachs•Those named on slides
Thank you