federal office for civil protection focp looking for extreme events in switzerland: what role for...
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Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP
Looking for extreme events in Switzerland:What role for risk analysis in critical
infrastructure protection?
Dr. Stefan Bremstefan.brem[at]babs.admin.chHead Risk Analysis and Research Coordination Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCPFed. Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport
ETH Risk Center WorkshopSwiss Re, October 26, 2012
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Katarisk, 2003
Looking for extreme events in …
Basel, 1356
Chile, 2010
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Risk valuation
Monetary termsof statistical damage values
(marginal costs)
Weightingby consideration of
aversion against large-scale incidents
➎ ➏
Risk analysis
Statistics ofincidents
Description of scenarios
Calculation of statistical damage
values
Check of plausibility using statistics
Plotting of cumulative
frequency curves
➊ ➋
➌➍
Comparative overview
Katarisk: Methodology
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Agenda
• Concept of Critical InfrastructureProtection (CIP) in Switzerland
• Swiss CIP Programme• National CIP Strategy• Identification of CI Objects• Risk Assessment and CIP• Conclusion and Discussion
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CIP concept in Switzerland
RIS
KR
ISK
NATURAL
HAZARDS
TECHNICAL HAZARDS
SOC
IETA
L
HA
ZAR
DS
PR
EV
EN
TIO
N
PREPARATION
INTERVENTION
RECONDITION
RE
CO
N-
ST
RU
CT
ION
Public Administration
Industry
Energy
Waste Disposal
Financial Services
Health
ICT
Water and Food
Public Safety
Transport
Preventing breakdowns
Reducing damages
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Mandate by the Federal Council • Implementation of the national CIP strategy 2012
Role of the Federal Office for Civil Protection Chairing the CIP Working Group Coordination of the activities based
on the national strategy
Aim and purpose of the CIP Programme• Development of uniform approach• Creation of joint basic documents• Facilitation of dialogue and collaboration• Protection of the population and its livelihood (Art. 2, CPCD Law)
CIP Programme in Switzerland
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National CIP Strategy 2012
Strategic Goal
Basic Principles• Comprehensive risk-based approach• Proportionality • Responsibility of the actors• Public-private partnership
The national CP strategy aims at improving the resiliency of critical infrastructures in Switzerland. It ensures a coordinated and
unified approach of all actors involved.
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Measures of the National CIP Strategy
• Improve the general framework of the cross-sectoral collaboration
• Improve the CI’s resiliency• Key points of the strategy
Identification and compilation of CI objects (CI-Inventory)
Establishment of cross-sectoral platforms Improving information exchange (incl. early
warning) Handling of CI failures (federal support)
• CIP as a permanent process (inventory, comprehensive protection concepts, risk dialogue, etc.)
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Failure of a nationalcritical infrastructureFailure of a regional
critical infrastructure
Inventory of Critical Infrastructure Objects
• Aim: Inventory of Swiss Critical Infrastructure objects Contribution to the provision of important goods and
services and / or hazard potential
• Purpose: Basis for planning and prioritisation in risk and disaster management Confederation, Cantons, CI operators
• CI Inventory replaces Catalogue to Ensure Basic Needs (previously operated by the military)
• Extension in terms of CI sectors, operators, threat and measure spectrum
• Identification of CI objects uses standardised process• Method elaborated and approved by CIP WG• Committees of relevant actors on national level
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Prioritisation process
1) Creation of a function structure
2) Determination of relevant object groups
3) Definition of threshold levels
4) Compilation and evaluation of CI objects
a) Output potential
b) Hazard potential
5) Completion with cantonal objects
Swiss approach is similar / compatible with the EU approach Focus lies on national importance rather
than on cross-border effects CIP Inventory considers international aspects
In every CI
subsector
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Database CI Inventory and Object Files
Dummy version
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Risk Assessment and CIPObjectives and purpose
• Multi- (integrated) risk analysis to prioritise hazards (country risk assessment)
• Integrate know-how to increase risk awareness (e.g. dependencies/cascades)
• Elaborate foundations for further analyses, (preparedness) planning, training and information
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Methodology to assess the hazards
• Risk = Impact x Frequency/Probability
• Impact (damage) is described by 13 indicators
• Assessment based on the scenario of the risk files
• Expert-Delphi (workshops)
Impact
Freq/ProbabExpert groups
Ass
ess
me
nt
Aggregation of Impact
Indicators of the damage Marginal costs
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Workshops
Proof of concept, December 2011 • Validation of methodology with a sample of risk files
(inter alia earthquake, drought, power blackout, animal disease)
• Participants primarily with methodological expertise (academia, insurance, federal, cantonal and communal authorities, etc.)
Assessment workshops of the scenarios• 13 workshops between May and August 2012
• Participants depending on the hazard from federal, cantonal and communal authorities (intel, police, health, etc.), academia, CI operators (energy, transportation, IT, finance, etc.), etc.
• Validation by (re)insurance representatives
• In total, some 70 experts involved in assessment
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Risk files and scenario
Risk files
Systematic structure of the risk files• Definition / general info• Similar incidents• Driving factors• Dependencies • Scenario
• Description• Impacts
• Legal foundation and references
• Scenario as reference for the assessment of impact and likelihood.
• Scenario in risk file is one of many possible scenarios(serious / major / extreme).
• Scenario is no prediction / forecast.• Scenarios help to anticipate possible
impacts to get better prepared.
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Selected hazards for assessment in 2012
- Attack with dirty bomb- Attack with sarin- Accident in a chemical plant- Drought- Mass migration of refugees (Kosovo 1999)- Cyber attack- Power blackout- Animal disease- Road accident with dangerous goods - Storm, inland flooding, earthquake- Pandemic
- Additional 6 workshops in the context of the revision of the national CBRN and natural hazard reference scenarios
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To assess the damage: 13 indicators Description of consequences is based on the Swiss Federal Constitution:
Area of damage
Sub-area Indicator
PopulationLife and Health
B1 – Casualty
B2 – Person injured or sick
Help in emergency B3 – Person in need of support
Environment Agricultural area + forest U1 – Damaged area
EconomyWealth W1 – Damage on property and assets
Economic productivityW2 – Reduction of economic productivity
Society
Provision of vital goods and services
G1 – Disruption of provision
Basic rights G2 – Restrictions on basic rights
Law and order G3 – Limitations of law and order
Image of and trust in institutionsG4 – Reduction of good image
G5 – Reduction of trust
Territorial control G6 – Loss of territorial control
Cultural goods G7 – Damage or loss of cultural goods
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F- Class
Likelihood(in 10 years)
1 x in . . . years
Frequency(1/year)
F 8 > 30 % < 30 > 3*10-2
F 7 10 - 30 % 30 - 100 3*10-2 - 10-2
F 6 3 - 10 % 100 - 300 10-2 - 3*10-3
F 5 1 - 3 % 300 - 1'000 3*10-3 - 10-3
F 4 0.3 - 1 % 1'000 - 3'000 10-3 - 3*10-4
F 3 0.1 - 0.3 % 3'000 - 10'000 3*10-4 - 10-4
F 2 0.03 - 0.1 % 10‘000 - 30'000 10-4 - 3*10-5
F 1 < 0.03% > 30'000 < 3*10-5
Estimation of Likelihood / Probability / Frequency
≈ ≈
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Selection of first results: Natural hazards
Earthquake
Inland Flooding
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Selection of first results: technical and societal hazards
Pandemic
Power blackout
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Figure: Exemplary Riskmatrix
Comparative Analysis
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Available products (so far in German only...)
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Conclusion and outlook
• Increasing importance of CIP• The aim is not absolute security,
but optimized security However, extreme events should be considered
in the preparedness and continuity planning• Value added of comprehensive approach• Resources are increasingly scarce
Prioritisation necessary Consideration of residual risk (extreme events!)
• Cross-sector cooperation and coordination become more and more important Cross-country cooperation and coordination as well
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Contact information
Dr. Stefan BremHead of Risk Analysis and Research Coordination Federal Office for Civil Protection
Monbijoustrasse 51A, 3003 BernTel +41 31 322 51 37Fax +41 31 324 87 89stefan.brem[at]babs.admin.chwww.civilprotection.ch
Risks Switzerland: www.risk-ch.chKATAPLAN: www.kataplan.chCIP: www.infraprotection.ch