federal department of home affairs fdha federal office of meteorology and climatology meteoswiss
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Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch and their significance yesterday, today and tomorrow. Simon C. Scherrer Climate information team, Climate Services Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch and their significance yesterday, today and tomorrow
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Simon C. Scherrer
Climate information team, Climate ServicesFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Workshop "Spawning the Atmosphere Measurements of Jungfraujoch“26 November 2008, Bern
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2 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
The beginning… 1 November 1922
Beginning of meteorological observations 1 November 1922
Wednesday, 1 November 1922
observations for science, weather forecasts and aviation
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3 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Yesterday…
measurement site: 1925 – 1937 photo: Fahrni
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4 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Since 1937… and today
temperatureTHYGAN north
old ANETZ hut (rot.)
solar radiation,luminosity etc.ASRB, GAW,
CHARM
wind
temperatureTHYGAN south
parameter device
pressure PTB220
radioactivity TechniData
temperature 2 THYGAN + 1 Rotronic
rel. humidity 2 THYGAN + 1 Rotronic
sunshine Solar 111B
luminosity LICOR
SW radiation CM21
LW radiation CG4
wind (speed, direction) METEK
autom. station since 1981official SMN station since 09.10.2007 values every 10‘NOTE: no precipitation
+ man. SYNOP program GAW/CHARM/ASRB
MeteoSwiss SwissMetNet station
SYNOP obs.
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5 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
MeteoSwiss measurement networks
Jungfraujoch
the highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe
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6 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Today… Climate Change
http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Monthly/Hadplot_globe.gif
Muir Glacier, Alaskaaus Trenberth 2007
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7 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
From yesterday to today…
Photo: Ruedi Wyss
TM, MétéoSuisse
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8 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
From yesterday to today…
maximum temperature: homogenization amounts 1937-2006
instrumental problemsin extreme environment
replacement of instrument
hom
ogen
izat
ion
amou
nts
[°C
]
seasonal dependenceof older instruments
site relocation and change of instrument type
1K
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9 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Today… homog. mean temperature
trend mean temperature: ~0.4 °C / 10y
mean: -7.9 °C
northern hemisphere land: ~0.3 °C / 10y
devi
atio
n fr
om m
ean
[°C
]1937-2007
(since 1961)
1K
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10 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe?
climate records:mean temperature trends
inter-annual variability
thawing days
The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.
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11 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
regional distribution of trendsannual mean temperature 1961-2006
Jungfraujoch
filled circles: significant trends (5% level)
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12 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
vertical distribution of seasonal mean temperature trends 1961-2006
Appenzeller et al. (2008)
Jungfraujoch
grey:averagedtopography
filled circles: significant trends (5% level)
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13 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe?
climate records: mean temperature trends
inter-annual variabilitytoday …
thawing days tomorrow
The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.
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14 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Interannual (year-to-year) variabilityin Swiss Alpine winter climate
Savognin 1990
Davos 1999
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15 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
The European Winter patterns (dynamics)
leading sea level pressure patterns (60W-40E, 30N-80N), DJF 1958-1999
North Atlantic Oscillation
European European BlockingBlocking
Atlantic Blocking
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16 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
How well can we explain the winter temperature variability at Jungfraujoch?
NAO
European European BlockingBlocking
Atlantic Blocking
„Mittelland“ Alps
Atlantic Blocking
Säntis
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17 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
“high fog” on the Swiss plateau
Photo: Ruedi Wyss
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18 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe?
climate records: mean temperature trends
inter-annual variability
thawing days tomorrow …
The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.
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19 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Permafrost in Switzerlandpotential distribution of permafrost based on DHM25 modelling (BAFU 7/06)
legend:
local permafrost possible widespread permafrost likely
source: Federal Office of environment (BAFU)
full thawing days = days with Tmin > 0°C
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20 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Annual count of full thawing daysJungfraujoch (1960 - July 2006)
logit-fitted trend: 0.55 d/yr, p-value: 0.02
full
thaw
ing
days
per
yea
r
2003
48
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21 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Projected changes in mean temperatureSwitzerland (CH2050 Project)
from C. Frei (2006)change wrt 1990, Median and 95% confidence
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22 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Probability for Tmin > 0°C at Jungfraujoch
2050: ~40% (range: 30-60%)today: ~15 %
occurence [%]
altit
ude
[m a
sl]
20 40 60 80 100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
x3
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23 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Summary
Yesterday…• frontier: extreme weather and climate conditions• high altitude observations for weather forecasts and aviation
Today…• highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe • homog. long time series of high altitude climate for global change issues• Jungfraujoch mean temperature increased by ~0.4 °C / 10y since 1961• mean temperature changes similar to lower Swiss stations• but: large scale influences very different from lowland stations
Tomorrow…• continuation of JUN station
(JUN is part of the new SwissMetNet operated by MeteoSwiss) • expected climate change impacts in Alpine region sensitive to “user group”• simple estimates suggest probability of full thawing days will increase
roughly by a factor 3 in 2050 (from <15% to ~40%)!
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24 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]
Photo: Ruedi Wyss
Thanks for your attention
Appenzeller, C., Zenklusen, E., Begert, M., Scherrer, S.C., 2008: Monitoring climate at Jungfraujoch in the high Swiss Alpine region. Science of the total environment. 391, 262-268. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.10.005