february 2013 vol. 2 - no. 2 - emirates nbd€¦ · become a billionaire by alice johnson not...

News update

>> UAE banks to repay crisis capital as value diminishes

>> Government official: Dubai financially sound, capable of repaying debts

>> Egypt foreign reserves fall below USD15bn, highlight need for IMF deal

>> Cash-rich Gulf banks replacing European banks as major acquirers in Mena: S&P

>> Dubai utility DEWA picks banks for Islamic bond

>> Dubai’s Emirates launches USD750m bond

>> Emirates NBD’s 4Q net profit soars, outlook upbeat

>> Dubai airport becomes world’s third busiest

>> Dubai may ease restriction for foreign investors

>> Local currency bonds take center stage

Take control! Or, how to become a billionaire

Managing risk: Because business is risky business

Job-creation engines: Housing and construction

>> Read more >> Read more>> Read more >> Read more >> Read more

FEBRUARY 2013 Vol. 2 - No. 2

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EUR rally trips up

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Take control! Or, how to become a billionaire

By Alice Johnson

Not everyone is a millionaire or billionaire, but everyone wants to be one. For most people, this milestone is easy to achieve by the time one stops working. To help you along, we’ve compiled some pointers that can ensure you at least retire with net assets valued in seven or even 10 digits.

First of all, take control! “Follow the basics of financial planning – there is no magical solution!” James Thomas, regional director, Acuma, said. “Start with living within your means, do not spend more than you earn and make sure that you budget appropriately so that you know what your money is being spent on. Once you have control of these factors it is time to start planning for your future. Obviously, everyone is different and their circumstances are different, but the broad principles still apply.

“Start with putting the safety nets in place – by that I mean to have suitable medical, life and critical illness insurance, and then look to start building a savings fund for your retirement. This can take many forms, from property to a range of investments, but the key is to do something, and the earlier you start the easier it will be,” he said.

For colleague Natalie Storey, financial consultant at Acuma, saving as much of your money as soon as possible is the first step to take.

“The best steps to secure financial security is ultimately to start saving as soon as possible and as much as you can. The earlier you start saving for the future and your retirement, the earlier you will be financial secure and not have to worry about what age you retire,” she said.

“If you are in your 20s or early 30s, retirement might seem a long way off. However, these are the most important years to start saving for retirement. As soon as you start working you should start contributing something towards your retirement fund. As a general rule, you should contribute half your age as a percentage into a retirement plan. For instance, if you are 30 and are earning AED 50,000 per month, 15% of that AED 50,000 should be set aside for your retirement plan: or AED 7,500 per month,” she said.

A major decision to take is to choose a currency “that you wish to be a billionaire in – some will be a lot easier than others!” Thomas said. If you decide to be a billionaire in US dollars, for example, you would need to save USD 800,000

a month for 30 years, with a growth rate of 8%, which would result in a fund of USD 1 billion.

“Obviously this is unrealistic for most people, but it does give you an idea of what you would need to aim towards. Here’s another way to look at it: if you were already wealthy with an investment of USD 100 million, and it grew by 8% per annum for 35 years, it would turn you into a billionaire,” he said.

While this might seem far-fetched, if you “get lucky” and start working for a start-up company that becomes very successful, like Microsoft or Apple, this might not be so unachievable.

“Microsoft shares began trading at approximately one cent a share, and at its peak in 1999, reached USD 58 a share – that is an increase of over 58,000%, so if you had invested USD 175,000 at the beginning, you would be a billionaire at the peak price. Obviously, if it was your company and your idea that investors were buying into, you could get there much faster – if you are the next Mark Zuckerberg then you may well be a billionaire before you reach age 30,” Thomas said, referring to the founder of Facebook.

And if you do suddenly find yourself rolling in money, what’s the best way to retain your wealth?

“To retain your fortunes I would advise building a diversified portfolio of assets,” Storey said. “This would include a property portfolio and a managed portfolio consisting of cash, fixed

interest, equities and alternative investments to suit your attitude to risk and aspirations. The aim would be to live off the income the portfolio produces and preserve the capital value. Careful management by a qualified and experienced financial advisor will achieve this,” she said.

Get started!

• Live within your means

• Don’t spend more than you earn

• Budget appropriately and make sure you know where your money’s going

• Buy medical, life and critical illness insurance

• Build a savings fund for your retirement

• Start saving as soon as possible

• When you start working, start contributing something towards your retirement plan

• Build a diverse portfolio of assets.© Zawya

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SUCCESS SECRETS

Managing risk: Because business is risky business By Jude Hardy

A significant part of how successful you are as a business leader lies in the way you manage risk. To coin a phrase, business is risky business – especially in the uncertain financial climate after the 2007 crash. This has always been the case, however, and companies have always had to find ways to manage their business risks.

These risks might be anything from investing in a new product, taking on new employees, applying or extending the credit line or taking another company to court over a legal matter.

Risk management even has its own ISO standard – ISO 31000:2009 – ‘to provide principles and generic guidelines on risk management’. This includes the definition: ‘the effect of uncertainty on objectives’, both positive and negative.

According to Investopedia, risk management

is: “The process of identification, analysis and either acceptance or mitigation of uncertainty in investment decision-making. Essentially, risk management occurs anytime an investor or fund manager analyzes and attempts to quantify the potential for losses in an investment and then takes the appropriate action (or inaction) given their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Inadequate risk management can result in severe consequences for companies as well as individuals. For example, the recession that began in 2008 was largely caused by the loose credit risk management of financial firms.’

Within a company itself, risks are often assessed by top management in whichever division the risk is related to, e.g. HR, Marketing, Finance, etc.

“The CEO of the organization has to ensure that he or she not only focuses on the figures or the sales of the company, but at the same time ensures that all the departments are linked to the overall goal of the organization,” Jitendra Gianchandani, managing partner, Jitendra Consulting, said.

“If the organization is labor-intensive (retail, restaurant or service) the CEO has to ensure that the manpower required is available and trained to cope with the business at hand. Updating knowledge and people is also a big task and has to be taken care of by the CEO of the company,” he said.

Generally, there are two steps to take in risk

management: first, find out what kind of risks there are in an investment (not necessarily financial); then, to handle the risk, you identify the best way forward to achieve the objectives of the investment.

While not all risk can destroy a business, some can damage a company very badly. This is when risk management steps in – to prevent the fall-out from risks taken (when the result wasn’t as expected).

There are a number of different risk areas for companies – whatever size they are. These are generally segmented into physical risk, location risk, human/personnel risk, and technology risk. Physical risks are usually managed by the HR departments of companies, and include basic information such as the location of all fire exits and fire alarms. First-aid knowledge and information about hazardous materials/spills also come under this umbrella. Location risks include natural disasters – storms, strong wind and hurricanes, earthquakes and other environmental risks. Human risks include illness, theft, embezzlement and other crimes that can occur in the workplace. Lastly, technology risks include power cuts, the threat of viruses and/or hacking, and the loss of important/back-up data.

Above all, companies should insure against as many business risks they can. If you’ve got a building or any kind of physical space for your business, insurance against fire is a prerogative. Other kinds of aspects to insure against include embezzlement and fraud – particularly if

you have employees handling large amounts of money. Even if you’re happy with your employees and they’ve been working for you for years without any problems, insuring against their errors is vital.

“SMEs should nurture their employees and also watch its finance and legal matters closely [for errors]. A budget should be set for each department so they can measure their performance and also to evaluate the market and any market changes,” Gianchandani advised.

Types of Business Risk:

• Financial

• HR/employee or personnel

• Market risks

• Physical

• Credit & investment

• Legal

• Technology

• Location, e.g. natural disasters.© Zawya



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MARKETS UPDATE

Gulf markets start 2013 with a bang

Global markets charged ahead in the first month of the year as investor confidence was restored in light of positive data emerging from the United States, Europe and developing markets.

After enduring an endless cycle of bad news over the past few years, traders are now hopeful that most of the pressing problems facing the global economy – and there are many – can be resolved.

In the United States, the benchmark S&P 500 index breached the 1,500-point mark for the first time since 2007.

Global markets rallied on the news that the services sector in China, the EU and the UK was turning positive. Meanwhile, manufacturing data in much of the developed and emerging markets also surprised on the upside.

With new money reportedly pouring into global and emerging equity funds, there seems little reason to be pessimistic, especially as first quarter data is expected to be upbeat.

But already some of the more bearish observers are warning of an impending correction. The US equity markets have moved up too quickly, they say, which is not matched by high growth.

Indeed, some analysts are advising clients to “rotate” their portfolios, which could mean a correction in the US as investors turn their attention to the more deflated European equities.

A correction could come in the Gulf too.

The combined GCC market cap rose more than 4% in January as investors were reminded that the economic fundamentals of the key Gulf states were sound.

The Dubai Financial Market Index once again led the regional markets, rising 16.3% in January, as business confidence soared. Corporates such as Emirates Airline and Dubai Electricity and Water Authority looked to raise debt, and a senior government official reiterated that the emirate is “financially sound and capable to pay” all its outstanding debt, as and when they are due.

Equally crucial, a Reuters report noted that UAE banks are hoping to repay capital placed with them during the global financial crisis, which is yet another sign that the country’s business confidence remains very high.

The Abu Dhabi market was no laggard, rising 9.5% in the month, while the Saudi Tadawul breached the 7,000-point mark, rising 3.6% in January. Qatar and Kuwait also put in a strong effort, as Gulf markets launched a broad recovery.

Currency

A recent poll by Reuters shows most currency analysts remain pessimistic about the euro, expecting it to remain at USD 1.35 at the end of February and at USD 1.28 for the year. But the euro may have a few surprises up its sleeve as it enjoyed the best month against the US dollar in more than a year.

Meanwhile, most currencies have rallied against the yen, especially after the Bank of Japan pledged more monetary easing.

The dollar bought JPY 91.75, having risen as high as 91.82, a level not seen since June 2010. The euro touched JYP 124.65, bringing in sight the April 2010 peaks near 128.00, according to Reuters data.

Oil

Brent crude gained 4% in January, crossing USD 115 per barrel for the first time since October. Optimism regarding the global economy coupled with worries about parts of the Middle East ensured that Brent remained elevated. Some analysts believe Brent could

test USD 120 over the next few months.

Gold

Gold was down just under 1% for the month, according to Zawya data, as investors don’t see momentum building in the yellow metal. Gold has briefly rallied over the past few months, but gains have been followed by a sell-off each time. The metal ended the month at USD 1,663.40 per ounce.© Zawya


MarketMarket cap (USD bn)

% change (m-on-m)

Benchmark returns (%)

Saudi Arabia 383.9 2.80% 3.56%Qatar 130.6 3.40% 4.38%Kuwait 103.6 3.40% 3.48%Abu Dhabi 75.4 8.50% 9.54%Dubai 39.1 16.00% 16.34%Oman 20.4 2.00% 0.68%Bahrain 16.4 1.90% 1.83%Total 769.4 4.10% Source: Zawya

Soaring Gulf markets

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Job-creation engines: Housing and constructionHousing has emerged as a key priority for Gulf and other Middle East governments – and for good reason.

The housing sector’s ability to touch multiple aspects of the economy on a variety of levels, has turned the industry into a focus are for regional authorities.

A new World Bank report recently estimated that every USD 1 billion invested in infrastructure has the potential to generate, on average, 110,000 infrastructure-related jobs in the oil-importing countries; 26,000 jobs in the Gulf Cooperation Council economies; and 49,000 jobs in the developing oil-exporting countries.

“With estimated annual infrastructure needs of about USD 106 billion, the region could generate 2.5 million jobs by meeting these needs,” wrote Caroline Freund, chief economist, Middle East and North Africa Region, at the World Bank.

Housing can be a key driver of MENA’s great investment push, especially if it’s effectively directed and fostered, Freund said.

“They can also help meet social goals. Improved provision of high-quality basic infrastructure services, such as hospitals, schools, and water supply and sanitation, raises living standards and improves employability of populations and prospects for

inclusive growth.”

The infrastructure and construction sectors in the MENA region employ around 18.2 million people — 10.6 million in construction and 7.6 million in infrastructure. About 2.2 million of these jobs are in the GCC economies, 9.2 million in other MENA oil-exporting countries, and 6.8 million in the MENA oil-importing countries.

And there are plenty of examples of governments looking to create jobs via housing.

In Saudi Arabia, the government has pledged to build 500,000 affordable housing units over the next few years.

The kingdom has followed up on this promise by announcing a new mortgage law and earmarking SAR 250 billion for various housing projects across the vast country.

Similar plans are under way in other Gulf states but on a smaller scale, given their relatively small populations.

But while the GCC can probably afford to maintain its spending on housing, the real opportunity for job growth, mortgage

financing and construction lies in the wider Middle East region.

And that’s where the segment is most vulnerable, as governments are distracted by political tensions, and are unable to push through reforms that will stimulate the sector.

In Egypt, Jones Lang LaSalle had forecast 30,000 new housing units would come on line by the end of 2012, but the real estate consultancy now thinks most of the projects are delayed.

The trend is similar in places like Iraq, the Levant and North Africa, where acute housing and greater infrastructure developments have likely slowed down due to greater political uncertainty.

The World Bank notes that over the past decade, the region has created three million jobs, which is a million short of what was needed to maintain unemployment at 4% to 6%.

“Infrastructure investment can provide a quick response, helping to build confidence by creating jobs during the transition period, while putting in place the roads, housing, utilities, and communications platforms necessary for long-run growth,” said the World Bank.© Zawya

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Infrastructure (% of total)

Construction (% of total)

Infrastructure+ construction

(% of total)GCC 5.8 12 17.7Oil exporting Countries 9.6 13 22.6Oil importing Countries 7.1 9.4 16.5Total For MENA 8 11.3 19.3World Average 7.7 8.4 16.1Developed Countries 7.2 8.2 15.4Developing Countries 7.6 8.6 16.2Source: World Bank, 2009 data

Employment share of infrastructure and construction


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EUR rally trips up

We wrote that the EUR’s recovery seen in January was probably not sustainable and so far in February the price action appears to have lent support to this view. EUR/USD has fallen back by over 3 cents over the last week, from a high of 1.3710 to 1.3360. This is not to say it will not attempt to push higher again, but rather that the threshold for it to make sustainable gains is going to be a lot harder to meet than previously thought. While the EUR lost ground in the early part of the week due to some of the concerns we talked about in last week’s edition, in relation to politics and the economy, the real jolt lower was caused by ECB President Draghi’s comments following the ECB Council meeting on Thursday.

…As Draghi injects greater two-way risk

To us it was a case of not only what Draghi said but also how he said it. The tone of his remarks was noticeably different to those he made after the January meeting, much more measured and cautious in terms of talking about the expected recovery, with much less certainty about when it will begin. The risks to the Eurozone economy remain to the downside, with downside risks to inflation as well stemming ‘from weaker economic activity and more recently the appreciation of the exchange rate’. When it came to his specific comments about the EUR itself, Draghi was also very guarded, taking some credit for the recovery in investor confidence but also alert to the potential complications that a stronger EUR might bring,

despite it not being ‘a policy target’.

The impression given was that he did not want to talk the EUR down explicitly, but that he certainly did not also want to talk it up. He avoided the rhetoric of ‘currency wars’ (and even appeared to downplay their existence currently) while highlighting the conditions in which the ECB might have to consider action to suppress EUR strength. Specifically should EUR strength be a factor that might bring about a downward revision to inflation forecasts, it seems some form of response may be considered. And should exchange rates move significantly out of line with equilibrium estimates, then that may be something for the G20 to discuss.

G20 to focus on ‘currency wars’

Indeed with the G20 set to meet in Moscow later this week (15th-16th), the issue of currencies is likely to remain a ‘hot’ topic, with the weakness of the JPY expected to

receive much of the attention. Draghi has demonstrated that the ECB will not remain on the sidelines in such a debate, although he appeared to accept that Japan’s recent measures were more ‘macroeconomic policies that are meant to revamp its economy’ rather than a deliberate attempt at a ‘competitive devaluation’. In this climate it is much more likely that EUR/USD will now probe the downside of its 2013 range, implying risks towards 1.30 especially as US economic fundamentals are becoming noticeably stronger.

USD fundamentals are improving

Last week the US trade deficit shrank sharply

in December to USD38.5bn from USD48.7bn

in November. This was largely as a result of a

sharp fall in the oil deficit, with the rest due to

a 2.0% rebound in non-oil exports and a 1.5%

drop in non-oil imports. As US oil dependency

is likely to reduce further as a result of the

ongoing boom in the domestic shale oil sector,

this improving trend in the trade deficit is

expected to continue and is another factor that

helps to underpin our bullish USD view. In the

short term as well this improvement in deficit

should also be reflected in an upward revision

to Q4 GDP (taking it from -0.1% to 0.7%),

and going forward into Q1 the trend in export

orders also looks capable of seeing a stronger

contribution to Q1 GDP as well.

This week will see US retail sales, industrial production as well as consumer confidence data released, but increasingly the markets will also begin to focus on the next fiscal deadline that looms towards the end of this month. Uncertainty about whether automatic spending cuts will come into force on March 1st may serve to reignite a period of risk aversion, an environment in which the EUR could lose further ground. From a fundamental perspective as well, the likelihood of weak Eurozone Q4 GDP data this week (with growth expected to have contracted by -0.5%) will also set the stage for more discussion and conjecture about how bad the strong EUR exchange rate is for the Eurozone economy.

CURRENCY CORNER



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NEWS UPDATES

UAE banks to repay crisis capital as value diminishesBanks in the United Arab Emirates will this year aim to repay capital placed with them at the height of the global financial crisis, with some turning to the bond market to avoid servicing expensive debt and risking a sudden ‘capital cliff’ later on.

The country’s finance ministry placed AED 70 billion with banks to shore up their balance sheets after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 triggered a seizure of the world’s financial system. – Reuters

Full story:

Government official: Dubai financially sound, capable of repaying debtsDubai is financially sound and capable of repaying its debts, a senior government official said, aiming to quell any doubts about the emirate’s ability to meet its obligations.

The city-state, which boasts of the tallest tower in the world and palm shaped man-made islands, had racked up billions of dollars in debt to finance its ambitious growth during the boom years, but the global financial crisis in 2008 crashed its property market and left several business plans in tatters. – Zawya Dow Jones

Full story:

Egypt foreign reserves fall below USD15bn, highlight need for IMF dealEgypt’s foreign reserves fell below USD 15 billion in January, a level the government says will cover just three months of imports, after being run down to try and defend the Egyptian pound.

The drop in reserves to USD 13.6 billion by the end of January, according to the central bank, from USD 15.01 billion a month earlier, extended a decline that has continued despite financial support for Egypt from the Gulf state of Qatar. – Reuters

Full story:

Cash-rich Gulf banks replacing European banks as major acquirers in MenaBanks in the oil-rich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are becoming active buyers again of stakes in banks in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) and even farther afield, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said.

As acquirers in Mena, Gulf banks are taking the place of European banks that are shoring up their balance sheets in the aftermath of the financial and sovereign crises.

“Banks in the Gulf have capital to spare, and are literally capitalizing on their traditional strengths such as strong capital positions, healthy liquidity, and supportive shareholders to pursue acquisitions in Mena emerging-market countries, where opportunities for long-term growth exist,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Timucin Engin. – Emirates 247

Full story:

Dubai utility DEWA picks banks for Islamic bondDubai Electricity and Water Authority has picked banks to arrange a benchmark-sized Islamic bond, or sukuk, two banking sources told Reuters.

The state-owned utility has picked Standard Chartered, Citigroup, RBS and local lenders Emirates NBD, Dubai Islamic Bank and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, the sources said. – Reuters

Full story:



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Dubai’s Emirates launches USD750m bondEmirates, Dubai’s flagship carrier, launched a USD 750 million 12-year amortizing bond, with final pricing due later, arranging banks said.

The bond, which matures in 2025 but carries an average life of seven years, launched at 300 basis points over seven-year midswaps, at the wider end of guidance. – Reuters

Full story:

Emirates NBD’s 4Q net profit soars, outlook upbeatEmirates NBD, Dubai’s largest bank by assets, said its fourth-quarter net profit quadrupled on lower impairments and that its outlook is improving thanks to a rebound of the United Arab Emirates’ economy.

The lender said fourth-quarter net profit rose to AED 625 million from AED 152 million in the same period one year ago. Revenues for the quarter inched higher to AED 2.5 billion. Its full-year net profit rose 3% to AED 2.6 billion from AED 2.5 billion in 2011. – Reuters

Full story:

Dubai airport becomes world’s third busiestFollowing its busiest month and year on record, Dubai International has taken over as the world’s third ranked airport for international passenger numbers, vaulting ahead of Hong Kong International in the global rankings.

According to the annual traffic report issued by Dubai Airports, passenger traffic surged 13.2% to 57,684,550 in 2012, up from 50,977,960 passengers recorded during 2011. The 2012 passenger traffic also exceeded Dubai Airports’ forecast at the start of the year of 56.5 million by more than a million passengers. – Emirates 247

Full story:

Dubai may ease restriction for foreign investorsDubai, seeking to attract more investment, may let citizens from five other Gulf Arab countries establish businesses along with foreign partners but without having to include domestic investors, the government said.

The Department of Economic Development has formed a committee to study applications from nationals of the Gulf Cooperation Council and will evaluate them based on how valuable the projects are to Dubai’s economy, the department said in a statement. – Reuters

Full story:

Local currency bonds take center stageInvestors are wading back into emerging market local-currency bonds, enticed by the prospect of higher total returns than in the US dollar market. But some bankers question whether investors are becoming too greedy and ignoring the risks in their pursuit of yield.

Over January, local currency funds have taken in a cumulative USD 4.4 billion of net inflows, according to EPFR Global. That accounts for more than 60% of overall allocations to emerging markets bond funds over that period and is double the amount invested in hard-currency funds, as investors seek ways to maintain last year’s stellar performance. – Reuters

Full story:

.

© Zawya

NEWS UPDATES


http://www.zawya.com/story/TR20121014nL5E8LE0WJ2

http://www.zawya.com/story/ZAWYA20121022043226


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