feasibility report (final)
TRANSCRIPT
Zachary Butler
135 Mathews Street Apt. 5
Fort Collins, CO 80524
(970) 297-8412
May 9, 2014
Randy Hensley
City of Fort Collins Parking Services Manager
215 N. Mason Street
Fort Collins, CO 80524
(970) 416-2058
Dear Mr. Hensley:
I have prepared this feasibility report to determine the viability of expanding Fort Collins’
electric vehicle charging station grid within the next six years. Based on three criteria
considering the current growth trends, projected electric vehicle sales in this country – and
especially in Colorado, a major high-tech hub – as well as state legislation and local policies, I
have concluded that it is feasible to at least double the current grid by 2020.
I am interested in providing insight by means of this report in addressing what is, to my mind, a
critical part of the transportation infrastructure in our city. I look forward to your review and
invite any questions you may have. You may reach me by phone at (970) 297-8412 or by e-mail
Sincerely,
Zachary R. Butler
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Is it feasible to double the number of Battery Electric
Vehicle charging stations within Fort Collins by 2020?
Zachary R. Butler
135 Mathews Street
Fort Collins, CO 80524
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Table of Contents
Page
List of Figures........................................................................................................ 4
Executive Summary …………………………………………………………...... 5
Background …………………………………………………………………....... 7
Methods/Criteria……………………………………………………………….... 9
Analysis ...………………………..……………………………....……………...
EV Sales and Ownership..................…......……………………………….
EV Sales Projections.......………......…………………………………......
Policy Making..............................................................................................
10-13
10
11
13
Conclusion/Recommendations......……………………………………………… 14-16
References ……………………………………………………………………..... 17-18
Appendix A: Charging Station Locations Map..................................................... 19
4
List of Figures
Page
Figure 1 – Fort Collins Parking Plan 8
Figure 2 – EV Charging Station at Ken’s Brake and Muffler 8
Figure 3 – Top 10 States for EV Market Share 9
Figure 4 – Global EV Sales between 2011 and 2012 10
Figure 5 – BEV Sales by Year; 2011 – 2014 11
Figure 6 – 2012 Global EV Sales, by Country 11
Figure 7 – BEV only sales forecasts based on studies by JD Power and Pike
Research
12
Figure 8 – Pilot program for EV charging stations in Fort Collins 14
5
Executive Summary
There has been a new trend among automotive consumers in recent years: electric cars
are becoming a common sight on our roads. Not just in Fort Collins, either – Pure plug-in
electric vehicle sales in the U.S. nearly hit 50,000 in 2013 alone (EV Rolls, 2013). The roads of
Colorado have also seen a jump in the number of electric cars, particularly around prevalent
technological hubs such as Boulder and Fort Collins – the state currently houses 0.4 percent of
electric cars, as of February 2014 (Shahan). Facing increasingly stringent emissions regulations
and the rising costs of fuel, people have started to buy into plug-in electric cars. The cities of
Larimer County have been partnering with local businesses in an initiative called Drive Electric
Northern Colorado as well as installing their own charging stations to meet the demand for
keeping electric cars going on the road.
It is probable, given the increase of electric cars on the roads in Fort Collins in the last
few years that even more will be joining conventional and hybrid cars on the roads. The city has
installed two charging stations and businesses account for the other eight, totaling about ten
charging stations primarily situated in northern Fort Collins (Drive Electric Northern Colorado,
2013). Now is an opportunity to accommodate an increase in electric vehicle ownership with
publicly available charging stations before it becomes a never-ending project trying to catch up
to EV (Electric Vehicle) demand.
Cities which have already undertaken programs to install a widespread EV charging
network have seen marked benefits, both economically and ecologically. The question for
determining the feasibility of expanding Fort Collins’ EV grid is whether it will be a beneficial
practice, given the estimated level of EV ownership. Determining whether current and projected
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ownership will justify expansion will be crucial in determining the feasibility of doubling the
existing network’s number of stations by 2020. In this report, only BEVs (Battery Electric
Vehicles) will be mentioned. Since these vehicles comprise the smallest percentage of total
electric vehicle sales and BEVs rely solely on an outlet to charge, inferring this data will provide
the simplest points of reference for determining the feasibility of this project.
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Background
The Front Range of Colorado has been a trendsetter for technological development for
several years. High-tech industry now calls cities such as Denver, Boulder and Fort Collins
home. With the advent of high-tech industry and educated citizens, the demand for automobiles
that are kinder to the environment and technologically advanced have become popular to the
point where they may soon be considered mainstream. However, therein lies a problem: with
growing popularity, the infrastructure to support electric cars also has to grow. As it happens,
there is a discrepancy between electric vehicle ownership and the availability of public charging
stations within Colorado and, by extension, within Fort Collins.
As with any mode of transportation, there are two primary ways of handling increasing
demand: either try to upgrade infrastructure early to accommodate anticipated demand, or
upgrade after the demand has come. The latter way often is a struggle, as the city would have to
try to accommodate overwhelming demand with limited space and resources. As of 2013, the
demand for EVs (Electric Vehicles) nationwide is growing (the U.S. holds about 26% of global
demand for pure-electric cars) (Global EV Outlook, 2013). Time is waning for the city to engage
in the former method to upgrade infrastructure for anticipated EV demand. This study will focus
on the city of Fort Collins and determine whether it is feasible to expand the charging station
network to a given density within the next six years.
The City of Fort Collins recently released a parking plan that outlines current parking
needs and plans to implement EV charging stations in public parking structures and some on-
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street locations. While any improvement is better than what we, the driving public, currently
have, the city only plans to expand its EV charging network on a
limited basis in public lots or parking structures. It is entirely
possible for the city to partner with local businesses to close the gap
between charging station demand and available resources to allocate
toward upgrading the charging station infrastructure.
In order to make expanding the charging station network
for EVs a reality, the City of Fort Collins has joined an organization
called Drive Electric Northern Colorado, which helps the cities in
Larimer County reach more of its citizens with EV charging stations
provided by local businesses, such as Ken’s Muffler and Brake
(right). While this is a step in the right direction, progress may still be made,
and this study will determine whether it is feasible to reach out even further
so that all electric car drivers will be able to charge their cars while they are
away from home.
The primary determining factor regarding whether it is feasible to
add more charging stations will be the average EV ownership interpreted
from national sales statistics and Colorado’s market share, by percentage.
Figure 1 - Fort Collins Parking Plan (2013).
Figure 2 – Some local businesses like
Ken’s Brake and Muffler are installing
EV charging stations. Source: Drive
Electric Northern Colorado.
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Methods/Criteria
This study will determine whether the current number of electric vehicle charging
stations can be doubled as part of Fort Collins’ parking infrastructure given the prospects of
current and future EV ownership growth trends. The study will incorporate current electric
vehicle ownership and charging rates as well as projected figures interpreted from national
statistics as well as data provided from local sources. For the purposes of this report, only BEVs
(Battery Electric Vehicles) will be considered.
The current estimated level of EV ownership
within Colorado and Larimer County, as interpreted
from national data and the state’s “market share” of
electric vehicles will be an important consideration for
both the locations of potential EV charging stations.
Currently, Colorado has 0.4 percent of the EV market
share in the United States (Shahan, 2014). The
appropriate density of these stations within the city of
Fort Collins is also a factor. An EV market share in the state of 0.5
percent or more by 2020 would necessitate a charging station density of ten to fifteen spread in
heavily-used commercial areas around the city).
Additionally, projected figures of EV ownership will be a criteria in determining the
feasibility of adding more charging stations. As with the current estimations of electric cars,
Figure 3 – Colorado has the eighth largest EV
market share. Source: Treehugger.com.
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projected sales figures will be weighed against the amount of charging stations (X amount of
cars per a proposed amount of charging stations within the city of Fort Collins).
Finally, pending or recently passed legislation promoting electric car ownership growth
by offsetting the high initial cost of ownership and fostering a necessity for expanding the
existing EV charging station infrastructure will be taken into account. Legislation clearing the
way for higher electric car sales and infrastructure upgrades will certainly be a major factor in
determining the feasibility of expanding the charging station grid within Fort Collins city limits.
Analysis
EV Sales and Ownership
The year 2012 was inundated with notable milestones for
electric car ownership. Globally, more than 110,000 electric cars
were sold, compared to 45,000 in 2011 (Global EV Outlook, 2013).
In 2013, the number remained almost the same, but the fact remains
that the number of plug-in EVs on the world’s roads is increasing
(EV Rolls, 2013).
While data for electric car registration and ownership was
not made available within the confines of this feasibility study, it is possible to infer the
estimated number of electric vehicles on the road in Colorado by multiplying the market share by
the estimated number of vehicles sold. For the purposes of this report, only BEV (Battery
Figure 4 - Global electric car sales more than
doubled between 2011 and 2012. Source: IEA
EV Outlook.
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Electric Vehicle) sales since 2011 will be used.
Figure 5 – BEV Sales By Year: 2011-14. Source: Personally created; data from Electric Drive Transportation Association.
The total number of BEVs sold within the U.S. from 2011 to 2014 is approximately
83,000 (rounding up), according to data from the EDTA (Electric Drive Transportation
Association). Given, as previously stated, that Colorado’s market share of electric vehicles
stands at approximately 0.4 percent, this study will estimate that the number of BEVs in
Colorado since 2011 totals between 3,000 and 3,500.
EV Sales Projections
The United States is one of the largest markets for BEV sales in the world. In 2012, The
U.S. market share for these vehicles was 26%.
Figure 6 - 2012 Global BEV Sales, by country. The U.S. contains more than a quarter of the world BEV market.
Source: IEA EV Outlook.
10,06414,251
47,694
10,873
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (Jan-Mar)
Battery Electric Vehicle Sales By Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 (Jan-Mar)
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Since that figure has been increasing for the past two years, it stands to reason that there will be
significantly more BEVs on the roads by 2020. In fact, assuming a modest market growth of 30
percent per year based on the graph above outlining BEV sales trends over the last three and a
half years (2012 saw a growth rate of 30% over 2011 sales; 2013’s growth rate was 70% over
2012, based on the data provided by the EDTA), there will be at least 300,000 BEVs on U.S.
roads by 2020. Studies like those from JD Power and Pike Research – conducted in 2010 and
2011, respectively – showed hugely optimistic numbers of BEV sales by 2015.
Taking into account the ever-
evolving nature of the market and the
fluctuations in fuel prices as well as initially
high costs of ownership for electric vehicles,
it is extremely difficult to determine accurate
sales figures with any certainty. Based on the
same model for U.S. BEV sales, it can be inferred that Colorado’s market share will also
increase past 0.4 percent. However, even an increase of 0.1 percent on the earlier estimation of
300,000 BEVs by 2020 will mean that at least 15,000 will be on Colorado’s roads.
Fort Collins is a major hub for electric vehicles in the state – thanks in no small part to
Colorado State University. Therefore, this study assumes that there will be significantly more
BEVs on the roads than there currently are. Hence, by this criteria, it is feasible to at least double
the number of charging stations by 2020.
Figure 7 - BEV only sales forecasts based on studies by JD Power
and Pike Research. Source: EV Rolls.
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Policy Making
In May, 2013, Governor Hickenlooper and the Colorado State Legislature passed six
different bills (increasing the total to twelve) that address key barriers to EV ownership –
including high up-front costs and limited driving range – and, by association, the necessity for
EV charging stations. Colorado has more policies governing the burgeoning electric car market
than any other state in the Southwest (Salisbury, 2013). These policies are designed to help
alleviate the burden on Coloradans whom are not able or willing to pay the higher initial cost of
EV ownership, and is predicted to significantly increase the number of EVs on Colorado’s roads.
Additionally to Drive Electric Northern Colorado, the aforementioned electric car
partnership joining cities with local businesses to encourage EV growth throughout northern
Colorado, the mayors of Fort Collins (Karen Weitkunat) and Loveland (Cecil Gutierrez) have
endorsed their support in February, 2013 for encouraging growth, primarily as a means to cut
dependence on foreign oil and also cut CO2 emissions:
“We are proud to announce that our cities are jointly leading an effort to make Northern
Colorado the national leader in electric vehicle deployment...Drive Electric Northern
Colorado (DENC) will turn Fort Collins and Loveland into the leaders of an electric
vehicle (EV) movement...As this effort moves forward, citizens will begin to see a robust
framework supporting EVs in the region. Shopping centers will feature free charging
stations...” (Gutierrez and Weitkunat, 2013).
The Fort Collins Parking Plan outlined in the introduction also outlines intent to expand
the EV charging station network, currently in its burgeoning stages with fewer than ten public
charging outlets available. The plan cites the need for EV charging stations as a near-term
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solution. However, the plan also emphasizes the importance in expanding this program, as it is
listed as a “high priority” on page 44 of the “Action Plan.” (Parking Plan, 2013).
Conclusion
Looking back to the outcome of doubling the current number of EV charging stations
outlined at the beginning of the report, it is entirely feasible to achieve that outcome by 2020.
Electric vehicle ownership – including BEVs and plug-in hybrids – is forecasted to grow
exponentially in the coming years. It is not only feasible, but
inevitable that Fort Collins will expand its EV charging network to
accommodate that growth. However, the question that remains is
whether the city and the local businesses it partners with will
substantially increase the number of available charging stations.
Moreover, the location of these charging stations is another
point to consider. Fort Collins contains concentrated commercial
areas – Old Town, the Foothills Mall, and the Vine Corridor, just to
name a few – surrounded by residential properties where new
charging stations are not as necessary. Besides stating that there
should be more venues, a map of potential venues have been placed
in Appendix A, signified by orange dots (current charging stations
are signified by green dots). More than one charging station may be placed at any given point to
Figure 8 - A pilot program for EV charging
stations in Fort Collins (Policy 7.8). Source: Fort
Collins Parking Plan (2013).
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increase the total number of charging points to and beyond the twenty required to fulfill the
parameters of this feasibility study.
The primary question left unsolved by this feasibility study due to unavailability of
pertinent data is how much it will cost to expand and maintain the charging station grid. While it
cannot be denied that starting costs may be relatively high, the benefits certainly outweigh the
costs, as there will be a significantly higher number of electric cars on the roads of Fort Collins
within the next six years. However, according to the Fort Collins Parking Plan, there is a General
Fund for various parking projects – of which EV charging stations may certainly play a part –
totaling some $33 million that may be tapped in the interest of completing this project (2013).
Recommendations
Obviously, after conducting research for this feasibility report it is clear that the city is
already planning to expand the EV charging station grid beyond its current capacity. Indeed, the
need for a larger grid is near, as technology going into producing and improving electric vehicles
speeds toward the horizon. It is paramount that the city hastily puts the 2013 Parking Plan into
action with regard to electric vehicles and develop a concrete strategy for aggressively expanding
the charging station grid. While it may not be feasible to conduct this plan on a city-wide scale,
well-placed charging stations will be universally popular with electric car drivers and will be
better than not expanding the grid at all.
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The scope of this study is, perhaps, too conservative. Based on research conducted for the
report, estimations of how many electric cars will be on the nation’s roads vary wildly depending
on prevailing investigative conditions in any given report. If the city truly does see many times
the amount of electric cars projected to be on the road in 2020 by this feasibility report, it will be
imperative to aggressively expand the EV charging station grid beyond the venues illustrated in
Appendix A.
The core of effective city management is being able to accurately predict the city’s long-
term needs, and accommodating electric vehicles is certainly going to be one of Fort Collins’
needs. The solution to add more charging stations and upgrading the infrastructure will be more
beneficial than denying EV drivers a public service.
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References
(2013). Retrieved from Drive Electric Northern Colorado: http://driveelectricnoco.org
Electric Drive Cumulative U.S. Plug-In Vehicle Sales. (2014, March). Retrieved from Electric
Drive Transportation Association:
http://electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d%2Fsp%2Fi%2F20952%2Fpid%2F20952
EV Future, EV Sales, EV Sales Projections. (2013). Retrieved from EVs Roll:
http://www.evsroll.com
Fort Collins Maps. (n.d.). Retrieved from City of Fort Collins GIS - FCMaps:
http://gisweb.fcgov.com
Gutierrez, K. W. (2013, February 21). Editorial: Fort Collins and Loveland mayors support
regional electric vehicle initiative. Retrieved from City of Loveland:
http://www.cityofloveland.org/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=16518
International Energy Agency, Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicles Initiative. (2013,
April). Global EV Outlook. Retrieved from International Energy Agency:
http://www.iea.org/publications/glovalevoutlook_2013
(2013). Parking Plan Fort Collins: Downtown & Surrounding Neighborhoods. Fort Collins,
Colorado.
Salisbury, M. (2013, May 21). Colorado Beats Five Southwest States in Support of Electric
Vehicles. Retrieved from Colorado Energy News:
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http://coloradoenergynews.com/2013/05/colorado-beats-5-southwest-states-support-
electric-vehicles
Shahan, Z. (2014, February 6). Top 10 electric car "states" are... Retrieved from Treehugger:
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/top-10-electric-car-states-are.html
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Appendix A: Charging Station Locations Map
Possible venues (orange dots) include (clockwise, from top):
1) Old Town Parking Garage (Mountain Avenue and Remington Street)
2) Walmart Shopping Center vicinity (Lemay Avenue and Magnolia Street)
3) Council Tree Shopping Center (Council Tree Avenue and Ziegler Road)
4) Best Buy/Barnes & Noble (College Avenue and Boardwalk Drive/Troutman Parkway)
5) Drake Shopping Center (Drake Road and Shields Street)
Map of current and proposed EV charging station locations. Source: Personally created using GIS-based “FC
Maps”.