fate and effect of oil spills from the trans mountain ...€¦ · fate and effect of oil spills...

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiver

Estuary

Preparedfor

Tsleil‐WaututhNation,

CityofVancouver,

and

LivingOceansSociety

Preparedby

JeffreyW.Short,Ph.D.

JWSConsultingLLC19315GlacierHighwayJuneau,Alaska99801

USA

May11,2015

TABLEOFCONTENTS

i

1.0 EXECUTIVESUMMARY............................................................................................................1

1.1 BackgroundonProjectaswellastheBurrardInletandFraserRiverestuaryecosystems.........................................................................................1

1.2 Peer‐ReviewoftheTransMountainEcologicalRiskAssessment.....................................................................................................................21.2.1 TransMountainfailstointegrateexposurebasedon

multiplelocations..........................................................................................41.2.2 TransMountainfailstoassesshazardindependentlyof

exposure............................................................................................................41.2.3 TransMountainfailstoassessthepossibilityof

organismsbeingexposedtosubmergedoil......................................51.2.4 TransMountainfailstoconsiderallthewaysthatoil

canharmorganisms.....................................................................................71.2.5 ConclusionsofPeerReview......................................................................7

1.3 AssessmentoftheFate,Behaviour,andEffectsofOilSpilledintoBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary............................................8

2.0 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................13

2.1 ScopeofWork.............................................................................................................132.2 StatementofQualifications..................................................................................13

2.2.1 Education.......................................................................................................132.2.2 Experience.....................................................................................................13

2.3 Expert’sDuty..............................................................................................................142.4 DocumentsReviewed..............................................................................................152.5 QualificationofOpinions.......................................................................................15

3.0 BACKGROUNDONPROJECTANDTHEBURRARDINLETANDFRASERRIVERESTUARYECOSYSTEMS.........................................................................................16

4.0 PEER‐REVIEWOFTHETRANSMOUNTAINAPPLICATION..................................20

4.1 TransMountainfailstoassessexposurebasedonrepresentativelocations........................................................................................21

4.2 TransMountainfailstoassesshazardindependentlyofexposure.......................................................................................................................24

4.3 TransMountainfailstoassessthepossibilityoforganismsbeingexposedtosubmergedoil.........................................................................26

4.4 TransMountainfailstoconsiderallthewaysthatoilcanharmorganisms.....................................................................................................................31

TABLEOFCONTENTS

ii

5.0 FATE,BEHAVIOURANDEFFECTSOFDILUTEDBITUMENDISCHARGEDINTOBURRARDINLET,THEFRASERRIVERESTUARYANDTHESALISHSEA............................................................................................................37

5.1 FateandbehaviourofdilutedbitumendischargedintoBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary.....................................................................375.1.1 Factorsaffectingthefateandbehaviourofoil

dischargedtoreceivingwaters............................................................375.1.2 Summaryofseasonalvariationofatmosphericand

oceanographicconditionsinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary.................................................................................41

5.1.3 Chemicalcompositionandphysicalpropertiesofdilutedbitumen...........................................................................................45

5.1.4 Effectsofweatheringonthephysicalpropertiesofdilutedbitumen...........................................................................................51

5.1.5 Effectsofweatheringonthechemicalcompositionofdilutedbitumen...........................................................................................52

5.1.6 Behaviourofdilutedbitumeninreceivingwaters......................565.2 EffectsofdilutedbitumendischargedintoBurrardInletorthe

FraserRiverestuary................................................................................................585.2.1 BiologicalproductivityoftheFraserRiverestuary....................585.2.2 Physicalhabitatassociationsofintertidalspecies......................605.2.3 Effectsofweathereddilutedbitumenonintertidal

species.............................................................................................................635.3 Effectsofdilutedbitumenonspeciesinhabitingthemarine

watersurface..............................................................................................................695.3.1 Sea‐andshorebirds...................................................................................695.3.2 MarineMammals........................................................................................74

5.4 Effectsofdilutedbitumenonspeciesbeneaththeseasurface............765.4.1 Oilexposuremechanismsintheupperwatercolumn

afteranoilspill............................................................................................775.4.2 Effectsofdilutedbitumennaturallydispersedinthe

upperwatercolumnonaquaticorganisms....................................78

6.0 SUMMARYOFOPINIONS......................................................................................................80

7.0 APPENDICES..............................................................................................................................84

1

1.0 ExecutiveSummary

1.1 Background on Project as well as the Burrard Inlet andFraserRiverestuaryecosystems

1. TransMountainPipelineULC(hereafter,TransMountain)hasapplied foraCertificate of Public Convenience and Necessity to construct and operate(i)987 km of new pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby; (ii)an expandedpetroleum storage facility in Burnaby; (iii)a new and expanded dockcomplexattheWestridgeMarineTerminal;(iv)twonewpipelinesfromthestorage facility to the Terminal; and (v)a roughly seven‐fold increase inmarineshippingactivities(hereafter,Project).

2. The Project would increase pipeline transport capacity from about 47,700m3/d to 141,500 m3/d (i.e., 300,000 bbl/d to 890,000 bbl/d), with aconcomitantincreaseofAframax‐classtankertrafficfromfivetoasmanyas34vesselspermonth.Threenewberths for theAframax tankerswouldbeconstructed at the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, BC as well.Beginning at the Burnaby terminal, the tanker route would pass throughCentral,InnerandOuterHarboursofBurrardInlet,acrossthemouthsoftheFraser River delta in Georgia Strait, through the Gulf Island passages andHaroStraiton thesoutheasternendofVancouver Island,and then throughtheJuandeFucaStrait,remaininginCanadianterritorialwaterstotheNorthPacificOcean(Figure1).Tankertrafficwouldremainwithinabout10kmofshorelinesalongnearlythisentireroutetotheopenocean.Alongthisroute,tanker traffic passes through some of the most biologically productive,sensitive and ecologically important marine waters in Canada, especiallywithinGeorgiaStrait.

3. The petroleum products shipped will consist almost entirely of oil‐sandsbitumendilutedwitheithergascondensate(i.e.,“dilbit”)orsyntheticcrudeoil(“synbit”).Dilutionlowerstheviscosityoftheresultingfluidsothatitcanbeshippedthroughpipelines.

4. TheSalishSea,andespeciallyBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary, isone of the most ecologically important coastal marine habitats along theentire Pacific coast of North America. It is seasonally inhabited by over amillion sea‐ and shorebirds, including more than 30% of the globalpopulation of snow geese. It is one of just 6 sites along the west coast ofNorth America of international and hemispheric importance. It is the onlysiteofcomparableecologicalimportancefromtheCanadianborderwiththeStateofWashingtontotheCopperRiverdeltainAlaska.

5. TheFraserRiver is the largestsinglesalmon‐producingriveron thePacificCoast of North America (including Alaska), supporting runs of sockeye

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary1.0ExecutiveSummary

2

salmon(Oncorhynchusnerka)thatcannumberinthetensofmillions,alongwith major runs chinook (O. tshawytscha), chum (O. keta), pink (O.gorbuscha) and coho (O. kisutch) salmon, as well as steelhead trout (O.mykiss). These returning adult salmon support several species of marinemammals,includingtheendangeredsouthernresidentkillerwhale(Orcinusorca)stock, commercial fisheriesworthmillionsofdollars,andsubsistenceharvestsforFirstNationsthatdependonthemformaintainingtheirculturalheritage as well as for nutrition. Juvenile salmon out‐migrating from theFraserRiverdependontheestuary’shighbiologicalproductivityandinturnprovideforagefortheseabirds.

6. Thecombinedaggregationsofextraordinarilyhighdensitiesandnumbersofsea‐ and shorebirds, marine mammals and fish make them especiallyvulnerable to potentially devastating mortalities should a major oil spilloccurinBurrardInletortheFraserRiverestuaryasaresultoftheProject.

7. Myreport isdivided into twomajor sections.The first sectioncontainsmypeer‐reviewoftheTransMountainecologicalriskassessment(ERA),whereIevaluate the methods used for the ERA in the context of requirementsstipulated by the National Energy Board. The second section contains myindependentassessmentofthefateandeffectsofoilspillsfromtheProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary,focusingonhowdilutedbitumenaccidentallydischargedcoulddispersewithinthereceivingwaters,howlongit could persist on shorelines and how it could affect marine‐dependentorganisms.Myemphasisinthesecondsectionisonoildispersionpathways,shoreline retention factors and mechanisms of toxic and ecological injurythatareeithernotconsideredorreceive inadequateemphasis in theTransMountainapplicationandsupportingdocuments.

1.2 Peer‐Review of the Trans Mountain Ecological RiskAssessment

8. Oil spills are classic “low‐probability/high‐consequence” events, requiringcareful assessment of potential impacts to the most sensitive species andhabitats in addition to habitats and species most likely to be exposed. Byconfounding assessments of exposureprobability and sensitivity of speciesand habitats, the Trans Mountain ERA largely excludes the most seriousconsequencesthatcouldoccurfromconsideration.

9. TheNationalEnergyBoardhasspecifiedthattheTransMountainapplication

…must include an assessment of potential accidents and malfunctions at the Terminal and at representative locations


3

along the marine shipping routes. Selection of locations should be risk informed considering both probability and consequence.

10. However, Trans Mountain ERA fails to select locations informed by thepotential consequences of oil spills. TransMountain therefore ignores andfails tocomplywith theNationalEnergyBoard’s requirementsbyselectinglocations only based on their assessment of the probability of an oil spill,locationsthatareneitherrepresentativenortypicalofthesurroundingarea.

11. TheTransMountainERAisbasedonawell‐establishedfive‐stepprocedurefor integratingoilexposureriskandthevulnerabilityofexposedspecies toestimatetheoveralllikelihoodofadverseimpacts,includinglow‐probabilityimpactsthatcouldhavecatastrophicconsequences,shouldaspilloccur.Thefive steps include: (1) problem formulation, (2) exposure assessment, (3)hazard assessment, (4) risk characterization, and (5) an evaluation ofcertainty and confidence in predictions. Problem formulation involvesidentifyingthenatureofthethreat,anditsspatialandtemporalboundaries.Exposure assessment involves evaluation of the likelihood that species orhabitatswillbeexposed to contamination, andhazardassessment involvesassessment of the species’ or habitat’s sensitivity to exposure. Riskcharacterizationistheprocessofintegratingthelikelihoodofexposureandthe likelihood of adverse consequences should exposure occur, and theuncertaintyanalysisassesses theoverallconfidence in thequantitativeriskestimatesofinjury.

12. ThereareatleastfourfundamentaldeficienciesinTransMountain’sERA:

(a) it fails to integrate oil exposure risk based on multiple locationswithin ecologically distinct sub‐regions along the marine shippingroutes,includingatornearecologically‐sensitiveareas;

(b) it fails to assess hazard independently of exposure. TransMountainconcludesthathazardisminimalbasedonitsconclusionthatthereisa low probability of oiling. However, Trans Mountain should haveassessedhazardbasedon species sensitivity tooiling independentlyofoilingprobability;

(c) it fails to assess the possibility of organisms being exposed tosubmergedoil;and

(d) itfailstoconsiderallthewaysthatoilcanharmorganisms.


4

1.2.1 TransMountainfailstointegrateexposurebasedonmultiplelocations

13. The Trans Mountain ERA assessed oil exposure risk on the basis of fourassumed spill origin locations, one for each ecologicallydistinct sub‐regionalongthetankerroute.Forexample,fortheinitialsegmentoftheoiltankerroutefromtheWestridgeMarineTerminaltotheislandsinthesouthwesternStraitofGeorgia,asinglepointofoilspilloriginwaschosenas“typical.”Thespill origin selectedwas chosen because itwas considered to be themostlikelysiteforanaccidentcausedbyacollisionbetweenferryvesselsmovingbetweentheCityofVancouverandVancouverIslandandoiltankervessels.However, that location iswell to thesouthofSturgeonBankandtheSouthArmMarshes,whichareamongthemostsensitivehabitatswithintheSalishSea.

14. By assuming that a single point of spill origin is typical for the Strait ofGeorgia,theTransMountainERAimplicitlyassumesthattheonlyaccidentsthatcouldeveroccurwould involvecollisionsbetweenferryandoil tankervessels. Inreality,oil spill accidentsusually involvecombinationsofeventsthatappearhighlyunlikelyinretrospect.Thisiswhytheseaccidentsarebothrare and difficult to anticipate. Arbitrarily dismissing all other possibilitiesforaccidents,includinganythatmayoccurwithinBurrardInlet(apartfromthe Westridge Marine Terminal) or elsewhere along the tanker routeamountstounreasonablyeliminatingmuchorevenmostoftheriskofaspilloccurring.Moreimportantly,spillsthatoriginateatdifferentlocationsalongthe tanker route can have very different trajectories, and hence impacthabitatsdifferently.Thepotentialeffectsofthesedifferencesarelostbyonlyconsideringasinglelocationforspillorigin.

15. Rather thanrelyingonasinglepointoforigin, theoilexposureassessmentshouldhavebeenbasedon trajectorymodeling results fromseveralpointsalong the tanker route. Integrating exposure risks across several possiblespill origin sites provides amore accurate assessment of exposure risk forhabitats, especially habitats of high concern such as the intertidal flats atSturgeonBankandtheSouthArmMarshes.ThesinglespilloriginselectedbyTrans Mountain resulted in a low probability of oiling for these sensitivehabitats,buthadthepointbeenmoveda fewkmtowardBurrard Inlet, theoilingriskwouldlikelyhavebeenconsiderablygreater.

1.2.2 TransMountainfailstoassesshazardindependentlyofexposure

16. Oilslicktrajectoryscenariosbasedonmodelsdrivenbyhistoricalwindandcurrentdataledtoidentificationofhabitatsandshorelinetypesmostlikelytobeoiled.Becauseresultsfromasinglelocationwereincorrectlytakenastypical of Georgia Strait, habitats and the species that had low estimated


5

likelihoodofoilingwerethenpresumedtohavelowsensitivitytooiling.Thisapproach effectively confounds exposure risk and hazard assessment,whereas the conceptual foundation of the ERA expressly separatesassessments of exposure and hazard, precisely to avoid such confounding.ThisconfoundingaloneinvalidatestheTransMountainERA.

17. ThemethodusedbyTransMountaintoevaluatethesensitivityofspeciestooilingisalsoflawed.IntheTransMountainERA,speciessensitivitytooilingissemi‐quantitatively“assessed”byassigning“biologicalsensitivityrankingfactors”(BSF)tospeciesorhabitatscategorizedonthebasisoftaxonomicorhabitat similarity. The four categories considered include seabirds,marinemammals, fish and other inhabitants of the water column and shorelines.Within each category, the same semi‐quantitative measures of sensitivity(low,BSF=1;medium,BSF=2;high,BSF=3,andveryhigh,BSF=4)areapplied.Thisapproachis invalidbecauseitcreatesamisleadingappearanceoffalseequivalencies for sensitivities to oiling across species and habitats. Forexample,allbirdsarecorrectlyviewedashighlysensitivetooilexposure,yetshorebirdsareassignedthe lowestBSF,equatingtheirsensitivity to thatofpelagicfishormarineinvertebratessuchasworms,mussels,andcrabsetc.,allofwhicharesubstantially lesssensitive tooilexposure thanshorebirds.These false equivalencies are artifacts of the inappropriate categorizationschemeimposedontheorganismsconsidered.Thisschemeisnotbasedonfundamentaldifferencesinsensitivity,butontaxonomicsimilaritiesthatarelargelyblindtotheinherentsensitivitiesoftheorganismsevaluated.

1.2.3 TransMountainfailstoassessthepossibilityoforganismsbeingexposedtosubmergedoil

18. TheTransMountainERAdismissesthepossibilityofexposuretosubmergedoil on the basis of the flawed experimental studies done to evaluate thesusceptibility of diluted bitumen to submerge in fresh water fromevaporationalone.

19. Several experimental studies have been conducted to evaluate theenvironmental conditions and times required for diluted bitumen tosubmerge in receivingwaters. Inparticular, fiveexperimental studieswereconductedusingtwobitumen/diluentblends(AccessWesternBlend(AWB)andColdLakeBitumen(CLB))thatwereconsideredtobetypicalofmostofthe products thatwould be shipped through theProject. The experimentalresultsforCLBwerealsousedfortheERApresentedintheTransMountainapplication.

20. Thosestudiesprovidelimitedguidanceforpredictingthetimerequiredforthese products to submerge inwater. The thick oil layers (1mm–20mm)


6

used in these experiments would rarely occur during the initial dischargephase of a real oil spill unless the spill occurred in a confined area thatprevented the oil layer from spreading to its fullest natural extent. Thethicknessofdilutedbitumenslicksthatareallowedtospreadinunconfinedwaters is around0.4mm,which is 3 to 50 times thinner than the oil slicklayersused in theexperiments.Becauseevaporation ratesdependstronglyonoil slick thickness, all of theseexperiments considerablyover‐estimatedthetimerequiredfortheresidualdilutedbitumentosubmergeinwater.

21. A recently‐published study that directly compared measured evaporationratesfromanexperimentaloilspillwithpredictedevaporationratesderivedfrom equations based on thick oil slick experiments showed that theequationsoverestimatedthetimerequiredforevaporativelossesbyafactorofaround20.

22. Appropriate corrections for actual oil slick thicknesses likely to beencounteredimmediatelyfollowingdischargeinBurrardInletortheFraserRiverestuaryindicatethatunderconditionsofwarmsummertemperaturesandmoderate wind speeds, the density of diluted bitumen could increaseabovethatoffreshwaterwithinaslittleas24hours,whichcouldcausethedilutedbitumentosubmerge.

23. The time required for evaporative weathering to increase the density ofdiluted bitumen above that of fresh water is a crucial concern in BurrardInlet and theFraserRiver estuary, because the surfacewatersare freshornearly so during the spring and summer freshet of the Fraser River. Theparamount concern here is not simply whether evaporation could causedilutedbitumentosinktotheseafloorinfull‐strengthseawater,butwhetherit could submerge in the fresh waters of the Fraser River freshet. Thethreshold for submergence in fresh water is substantially lower than forsinking in seawaterhavingsalinities typicalof theopenocean,because thelower density of freshwater. While not usually emphasized in theirconclusions, the results of the five experimental studies that evaluatedevaporation rates and concomitant density increases of diluted bitumenconsistently suggest susceptibility to submergence in fresh water after aslittleasaday,oncerealisticoilslickthicknessesareaccountedfor.

24. As a result, potentially major oil exposure pathways are largely excludedfromtheTransMountainERA,comprisingahostofspecies,manyofwhichare important for commercial and subsistence harvests. These speciesinclude clams, mussels and other suspension‐feeding organisms, juvenilePacific herring, juvenile salmonids out‐migrating from the Fraser Riverwatershedand salmonhatcheries inBurrard Inletduring spring, andadultsockeyesalmonreturningtotheFraserRiver.


7

25. Bitumensubmergedbeneaththeseasurface ismuchmoredifficult totrackas it disperseswithin receivingwaters to shorelines, the seafloor, and theopenocean,allofwhichexposesbiologicalcommunitiesalongthewaythatare difficult to observe or sample, and increases uncertainty regarding theextent and severity of contamination. This increased uncertainty routinelyleads tooverlypessimisticpublic speculation regardingcontamination thatcan have severely adverse consequences for First Nation subsistenceharvesting and for commercial activities such as commercial fishing andtourismthatdependonpublicperceptionsofwatersuncontaminatedbyoilproducts.

1.2.4 TransMountainfailstoconsiderallthewaysthatoilcanharmorganisms

26. TheTransMountainapplicationfailstoconsideranyconsequencesthatmayresult from photo‐enhanced toxicity. This toxicity mechanism has recentlybeen shown to be important for species such as Pacific herring (Clupeapallasi)thatdepositeggsonintertidalreachesofshorelinesandwhichisanimportantcomponentofthemarineecosystemintheSalishSea.

27. Photo‐enhanced toxicity occurs when some of the compounds in bitumendissolveintowaterandaresubsequentlyabsorbedbytranslucentembryos.When exposed to sunlight, these compounds promote oxidation of tissueswithintheembryos,ineffectburningthem.

28. Photo‐enhanced toxicity occurred in herring embryos on the shorelines ofSanFranciscoBayafterthe2009CoscoBusanoilspill.

1.2.5 ConclusionsofPeerReview

29. The combined effects of the flawed methods incorporated into the TransMountainERAaremostprominentlyillustratedbythefailureoftheERAtoconsiderthenumbersofresidentandmigratorybirdsatriskofoilexposure,andthecomprehensiveabsenceofquantitativeestimatesofadverseeffectsfor any of the species considered. Whereas the Trans Mountain ERAmistakenlyclaimsthatwadersandshorebirdsare“...arenotpresentinlargenumbers and are widely distributed”, the Fraser River estuary in factsupportssomeofthehighestdensitiesandnumbersofthesebirdswithinthewestern hemisphere. For example, counts of western sandpipers ‐ ashorebird ‐ routinely range from0.5–1millionannuallywithin theFraserRiverestuary.IfaspillresultedinoildrivenontoSturgeonBankortheSouthArm Marshes during the spring or fall bird migration when they may beinhabitedby100,000ormoreshorebirdsatatime,amassivemortalityeventcould ensue involvingpossibly several hundredsof thousandsofbirds. Yet


8

sucharealpossibilityisnowherementioned,letaloneassessedintheTransMountainERA.

30. Moregenerally,theTransMountainapplicationfailstoadequatelyvaluetheextraordinary biological productivity, diversity, and hence ecologicalimportanceoftheestuarineecosystemoftheFraserRiver.TheFraserRiverestuary is arguably themost important estuarine ecosystem on the entirePacificcoastofNorthAmerica,buttheapplicationfailstoreflectthis.Instead,byconsideringspeciesseparatelywith littleemphasisonthe importanceoftheFraserRiverestuaryasawholetotheglobalpopulationsofspeciesortotheecologicalintegrityofthewiderPacificcoastalecosystemofwhichitisamajor part, the application undervalues the potential ecologicalconsequencesofoilspills.

31. TransMountain’sERAis fundamentally flawedandshouldnotthereforebeusedtoassesstheecologicalrisksoftheProject.AproperERAthatdoesnotconfoundtheassessmentsteps,considersmultiplepotentialspilloriginsites,evaluates habitat sensitivities on the basis of species’ densities andabundances and species sensitivities on the basis of their intrinsicvulnerability tobitumenexposure, recognizes the susceptibility of bitumento submerge in receiving waters and includes the range of exposure anddamage pathways must be performed to credibly evaluate the ecologicalrisksinvolved.

1.3 AssessmentoftheFate,Behaviour,andEffectsofOilSpilledintoBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary

32. Dilutedbitumenspilled intosurfacewatersofBurrard Inletand theFraserRiverestuarywill followacharacteristic sequenceof changes. Immediatelyfollowing initial discharge and depending on the volume spilled, rapidevaporation of the gas condensate components of diluted bitumen maycreateinhalationhazardsforwildlifesuchasseabirdsandmarinemammalsin the immediate vicinity. If winds are sufficiently strong to generatebreaking waves, diluted bitumen may be entrained into the upper watercolumnassmalloildroplets,andhenceavailabletosuspension‐feedingfishandinvertebrates.

33. As the more volatile components are lost by evaporation, the increasingdensityofbitumenthatremainsontheseasurfacemaycause it tobecomeneutrally buoyant with respect to the density of the sea surface waterimmediately beneath it, causing it to submerge. Submergence would behastenedifinorganicsuspendedparticulatematerial(SPM)entrainedinthewatercolumnadherestothebitumen,increasingthedensityofthebitumen‐


9

SPM aggregate, especially in the high‐sediment plume of the Fraser Riverduringthespringandsummerfreshet.

34. Bitumenremainingontheseasurfacewillposeacontacthazardforseabirdsand marine mammals. Eventually, bitumen on the sea surface will eitherbecome tar balls that submerge in the water column, or impinge onshorelineswheresomeofitwillremain,andsomeofitwillbere‐floatedbacktothesea.

35. Bitumen accumulating on shorelines would pose a contact hazard forintertidal organismsgenerally, and additional hazards fromembryotoxicitytoearlylifestagesofintertidalorganisms,andfromphoto‐enhancedtoxicityto translucent organisms. If bitumen accumulates on shoreline sedimentsand is subsequently re‐floated, it will be much more susceptible tosubmergenceorsinkingtotheseafloor.

36. Surface waters of Burrard Inlet and the Fraser River estuary are oftenbrackish or nearly fresh within the Fraser River plume. Frequent winds,warm temperatures and high Fraser River discharge during spring andsummerareespecially favourable forsubmergenceofdilutedbitumen.Thelargetidalexcursionrangeisconducivetospilleddilutedbitumenstrandingon shorelines, particularly on armoured or low‐gradient shorelines inBurrard Inlet, and at the highly productive, low‐gradient mudflats atSturgeonBankandtheSouthArmmarshes.

37. Diluted bitumen is prone to submergence in fresh and brackish waters.Experiments performed to assess how fast the density of diluted bitumenwouldincreaseduringaspillhaveseriouslyoverestimatedthetimerequiredfor it to submerge. Under near worst‐case ambient conditions of warmsummer temperatures and moderate winds, spilled diluted bitumen maybegintosubmergeinthesurfacelayeroftheFraserRiverplumeandBurrardInlet about 24 hours following initial release. This possibility must beaddressedinoilspillriskassessments.

38. Contaminationofthewatercolumnbysubmergedoilopensthepossibilityofexposing a much wider diversity of organisms to oil, leading to multipledamagepathwaysthatarenotnormallysignificantfollowingtypicalcrudeoilspillsandthatarenotadequatelyconsideredbytheTransMountainERA.

39. Concentrationsofpolycyclicaromatichydrocarbons(PAH),whichareamongthe most toxic components of petroleum, are similar to concentrationstypicalofnormalcrudeoils.Consequentlytheinherenttoxicityofbitumeniscomparablewiththatofnormalcrudeoils.Rawbitumenisalsoconsiderablymoreviscousthanmostnormalcrudeoils.Bitumenisblendedwithdiluents


10

primarily to reduce the viscosity in addition to lowering thedensity of theresultingmixture.

40. Acredible,worst‐casescenariooil spill of16,000m3near theFraserRiverestuary could rank within top ten bird mortality events from an oil spill.Mortalitiesonthisscalecouldhaveadverseconsequencesforecosystemsfarbeyond the Salish Sea, and could have major de‐stabilizing effects on theestuarine foodwebofBurrard Inlet and theFraserRiverestuary. Sea‐andshorebirds are extremely sensitive to oil through physical contact, and thehigh productivity and habitat diversity of the Fraser River estuary placeshighnumbersofsea‐andshorebirdsatrisk.

41. ComparisonwithotherspillssuggeststhatamajorspillneartheFraserRiverestuarycouldkillmorethan100,000sea‐andshorebirds.Massmortalityoffish‐eating birds, both resident and migratory, could result in cascadingeffects throughout the marine‐dependent ecosystem. By substantivelyreleasingtheirpreyspeciesfrompredationcontrolbybirds,theabundanceof forage fish and other species consumed by birds can rapidly increase.These increasednumbersof forage fishmay inturnconsumemoreof theirmainlyzoo‐andphytoplanktonprey,includingthelarvalstagesofnumerousothercoastalmarinespeciessuchasshrimps,crabs,shellfish,etc.,whichmayreduce recruitment of these species because of higher mortality at theirlarval stages. Inaddition, if the increased forage fishabundance is sogreatthat they are no longer able to satisfy their nutritional requirements, theircondition may deteriorate, turning them into “junk food” for their manypredators, which include fish‐eating marine mammals, seabirds and otherfish.

42. Alongwith seabirds,marinemammals are also very vulnerable as well assensitivetooilcontamination.Marinemammalsarevulnerabletooilcontactbecause they inhabit the sea surface where they may readily encounterfloating oil after a spill. Oiled pelage can reduce thermal insulation and oilingested while preening can have toxic effects internally. Inhalation ofhydrocarbonfumesmayalsoleadtonarcosisanddrowning.Becauseoftheirrelatively large numbers and sensitivity, a major oil spill could result insubstantialmortalitiesofharboursealsandporpoises,andcouldjeopardizetheviabilityoftheendangeredsouthernresidentkillerwhalepopulation. Lossofthekillerwhalepopulationwouldpermanentlyalterthemarinefoodwebof the Salish Sea. Also, large‐scale mortalities of marine mammals maycontribute to the cascadingeffectsof seabirdmortalitieson theecosystem,releasing populations of yet more forage and other fish from predationcontrol, thereby increasing forage fish abundances perhaps to levels abovewhatcanbesupportedbyforagefishprey.


11

43. Genwest Inc., another expert retained by Tsleil‐Waututh and the City ofVancouver tomodel the trajectory of oil spills in Burrard Inlet, concludedthat anoil spill anywhere inBurrard Inletwouldalmost certainly result inconsiderableshorelineoiling.

44. Oil retention on these shorelines depends largely on the interaction of thespilled product with the sediment pore size distribution on the shoreline.Shorelines especially susceptible to oil retention include sandy/gravelbeaches covered by cobbles to boulders, beacheswith extensive biologicalcover,andsand‐ormudflatswithburrowsexcavatedbyworms, crabsandotherorganismsthatallowpenetrationofoilstrandedonthebeachsurface.

45. These organisms typically occur in horizontal “biobands” along shorelines.Patternsofbiobandingon shorelinesare similar throughout theSalishSea,including Burrard Inlet and the Fraser River estuary. Proceeding from theextreme upper limit of the intertidal to the extreme lower limit, themostprominent biobands on most shorelines are zones of salt‐tolerantherbaceousvegetationonsoilsorencrusting lichensonbare rocksurfaces,barnaclesandrockweed,gradingintogreenalgaeandbluemussels,thenredalgaeandsurfgrass,andfinallykelpsandeelgrassthataresubmergedmostofthetimeinthelowestpartoftheintertidal.Thebiologicalassemblagesofthesebiobandsprovidecoverformanyotherspeciesincludingmarinesnails,aswellas larvaland juvenile lifestagesofahostofotherspecies includingnumerousspeciesoffishandcrabs.

46. Once incorporated beneath the surface of these beaches, diluted bitumenmaypersistforconsiderableperiodsintheabsenceofphysicaldisturbance,determinedmainlybyoxygenavailability. In low‐oxygensediments,dilutedbitumenmaylingerforseveraldecadesormore.Theselingeringreservoirsofdilutedbitumenposelong‐termthreatstointertidalorganisms,predatorsincludingseabirds,marineandterrestrialmammalsthatconsumethem,andmarsh‐dwelling birds and mammals. They also impair the value of thesehabitatsforsubsistenceharvests.

47. If diluted bitumen submerges in the fresh or brackish surface waters ofBurrardInletorelsewhereintheFraserRiverestuary,speciesinhabitingthewatercolumnoronadjacentshorelinesmayingestoildirectly.Thesespeciesinclude fish such as juvenile herring inhabiting the estuary, out‐migratingsalmon fromtheFraserRiverand fromsalmonhatcheries inBurrard Inlet,andadultsockeyesalmonreturningtotheestuaryandriver,aswellasahostof suspension‐feeding invertebrates.Once ingested, thesespeciesbecomearoute for indirect oil exposure for their predators. For example, sockeyesalmon are mainly suspension feeders, and incorporation of oil through


12

ingestionwouldprovideanoilexposurepathwayforkillerwhalesandotherconsumerspecies.

48. The overall consequences of water column contamination by submergeddiluted bitumen are difficult to assess because of the great uncertainty inevaluating the amount of oil that submerges, tracking where it goes andhencewhatspeciesandshorelinesitaffects,andsamplingaffectedspeciestoevaluate the amount of contamination accumulated by them. Thisuncertaintyitselfcouldleadtowidespreadpublicfearsofcontaminatedfishandshellfish thatmayresult insubstantialeconomic losses forcommercialandsubsistenceseafoodharvesters.

49. An oil spill in Burrard Inlet or the Fraser River estuary could have long‐lasting adverse impacts on species inhabiting the intertidal zone, the seasurface,andthewatercolumnintheocean.Large‐scalemortalitiesofbirdsand mammals could de‐stabilize or permanently alter the food web ofBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuaryandcauseecosystem‐leveleffectsthereandbeyond.

50. Finally, even spills considerably smaller than the credible worst‐casescenario of 16,000 m3 can have substantial adverse effects on sea‐ andshorebirdsaswellasmarinemammalsandotherorganisms inhabiting theseasurface,shorelinesandthewatercolumniftheoilsubmerges.Evensmallto medium sized oil spills on the order of 100 to 1,000 m3 can causesubstantialmortalitiestoseabirds,andestimatedeffectsforsmalltomediumspills in Canada and in Alaska have the potential to contaminate tens ofkilometersofshorelinesontimescalesofdecades.

13

2.0 Introduction

2.1 ScopeofWork

51. Ihavebeenretainedby the law firmofGowlingLafleurHendersonLLPonbehalfofTsleil‐WaututhNation,theCityofVancouverandtheLivingOceansSociety toassess the fateandeffectsofoil spills thatmight result fromtheTrans Mountain expansion project in Burrard Inlet and the Fraser Riverestuary.

52. Inparticular, Ihavebeenasked to: (1) reviewandassess theevaluationofpotential fate and effects of oil spills completed by Trans Mountain in itsapplication for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity to theNationalEnergyBoard;and(2)providemyprofessionalopinionon(a) thefateandbehaviourofdilutedbitumenifspilled inthemarineenvironment,withparticularattentiontoconditionsinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary; (b) impacts to species inhabiting the intertidal zone, shellfishspecies, forage fish spawning beaches, eelgrass and kelp beds, with aparticular focus on impacts in Burrard Inlet and the Fraser River estuary;(c)impacts to species that inhabit the ocean surface, especially marinemammals and sea‐birds; and (d) impacts to species inhabiting the watercolumn.

2.2 StatementofQualifications

2.2.1 Education

53. IholdaBachelorofSciencedegreeinbiochemistryandphilosophyfromtheUniversityofCaliforniaatRiverside,aMasterofSciencedegree inphysicalchemistry from the University of California at Santa Cruz, and a Doctor ofPhilosophydegreeinfisheriesfromtheUniversityofAlaskaatFairbanks.

2.2.2 Experience

54. I was employed as a Research Chemist at the US National Oceanic andAtmosphericAdministration,NationalMarineFisheriesServicefor31years.Iretiredin2008andsincethattimeIhaveprimarilyperformedorprovidedsupport services for research projects and programs on the effects of oilpollutiononmarineecosystems.Followingthe1989ExxonValdezoilspill,I:(1)lednumerousprojectstoevaluatethedistribution,persistence,fateandbiological effects of the spilled oil in the marine environment, reportingresults in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature; (2) established andmanaged a hydrocarbon analysis facility that analyzed biological andgeological samples for oil contamination; (3) established andmanaged thechemistry data archive for the subsequent studies of the short‐ and long‐

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary2.0Introduction

14

termeffectsoftheoilspill;(4)ledthechemistrydataqualityevaluationandinterpretation forboth theUSFederalgovernmentand theStateofAlaska;and (5) led the scientific support team for theUSDepartmentof Justice topresent thescientificbasis fora$100MclaimagainstExxonMobilCorp. forun‐anticipatedlong‐termenvironmentaldamagescausedbytheoilspill.

55. I have published 68 professional scientific papers on oil pollution fate andeffects in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature, contributed chapters tothree books on the same subjects, and have presented written and oraltestimony before the United States House of Representatives, the UnitedStates Senate, and the Alaska Legislature on oil spill fate, effects andresponses. These studies and presentations focus primarily on themechanisms of oil dispersal in the environment following accidentaldischarges, retention of oil on shorelines and the factors modulating oilpersistence, and mechanisms through which oil exposure harms fish andbirds.

56. InanofficialcapacityasanemployeeoftheUSgovernment, Ihaveadvisedgovernmentagenciesofforeigncountriesontechnicalmattersregardingoilpollution, including Canada, Norway, the Peoples Republic of China, theRussian Federation, and the Republic of Korea. I served under an inter‐governmental scientific expert exchange program between the US andCanada to provide expert witness testimony on behalf of the Canadiangovernment during the prosecution of Canadian National Railway for theconsequences of the train derailment and subsequent oil spill into LakeWabamun,Albertain2005.

57. I am currently retained (since 2010) to organize and oversee scientificsupport for thePlaintiff’sSteeringCommittee in themulti‐district litigationoflawsuitsagainstBritishPetroleumPLCandothercompaniesfortheirrolesin causing the 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout in the northern Gulf ofMexico, and by the Republic of Ecuador in Bilateral Investment TreatyarbitrationwithChevronCorporationstemmingfromoilpollutioncausedbyTexaco (now a subsidiary of Chevron) in the Amazonian rainforest ofEcuador. IhavealsobeenretainedbytheGitxa’alaFirstNationtoevaluateenvironmental risks associated with the proposed Northern GatewayPipelineProject.

58. AcopyofmycurriculumvitaeisattachedasAppendix1.

2.3 Expert’sDuty

59. This reporthasbeenprepared inaccordancewithmydutyasanexpert toassist: (i) Tsleil‐Waututh Nation and the City of Vancouver in conducting

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary2.0Introduction

15

their assessment of the Project; (ii) provincial or federal authorities withpowers,dutiesorfunctionsinrelationtoanassessmentoftheenvironmentalandsocio‐economiceffectsoftheProject;and(iii)anycourtseizedwithanaction,judicialreview,appeal,oranyothermatterinrelationtotheProject.AsignedcopyofmyCertificateofExpert’sDutyisattachedasAppendix2.

2.4 DocumentsReviewed

60. Inpreparingthisreport,Ihavereviewed:

relevantpartsoftheTransMountainapplication,especiallyVolume8;

the1979MasterofSciencethesisbyDavidsonontheoceanographyofBurrardInletandEnglishBay;

reportsbyEnvironmentCanada,WittO’BriensandSLRossondilutedbitumenweatheringexperiments;

environmentaldatafilesfromCALMETandothersources;and

relevant scientific literature and other documents, including theliteratureanddocumentscitedinmyreport.

2.5 QualificationofOpinions

61. My opinions in this expert report are given to a reasonable degree ofscientificcertainty.Theyarebasedonmyeducation,professionalexperience,information and data available in the scientific literature, and informationanddataaboutthisapplicationidentifiedherein.

62. Icontinuetoreviewavailableinformation,andIreservetherighttoamendor supplement this reportand theopinionscontained in this reporton thebasisofanysubsequentlyobtainedmaterialinformation.

16

3.0 Background on Project and the Burrard Inlet andFraserRiverEstuaryEcosystems

63. Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC (hereafter, Trans Mountain) has applied for aCertificate of Public Convenience and Necessity to construct and operate(i)987 km of new pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby; (ii)an expandedpetroleumstoragefacilityinBurnaby;(iii)anewandexpandeddockcomplexat the Westridge Marine Terminal; (iv)two new pipelines from the storagefacility to the Terminal; and (v)a roughly seven‐times increase in marineshippingactivities(hereafter,Project).

64. The Project would increase pipeline transport capacity from about 47,700m3/d to 141,500 m3/d (i.e., 300,000 bbl/d to 890,000 bbl/d), with aconcomitantincreaseofAframax‐classtankertrafficfromfivetoasmanyas34vessels per month.1Three new berths for the Aframax tankers would beconstructed at the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, BC as well.Beginning at the Burnaby terminal, the tanker route would pass throughCentral, InnerandOuterHarboursofBurrard Inlet,across themouthsof theFraserRiverdeltainGeorgiaStrait,throughtheGulfIslandpassagesandHaroStraitonthesoutheasternendofVancouverIsland,andthenthroughtheJuande Fuca Strait, remaining in Canadian territorial waters to the North PacificOcean (Figure 1). Tanker traffic would remain within about 10 km ofshorelines along nearly this entire route to the open ocean. Along the way,tanker traffic passes through some of the most biologically productive andecologically important marine waters in Canada, located especially withinGeorgiaStrait(Figure1).

65. ThepetroleumproductsshippedontheProjectwillconsistalmostentirelyofoil‐sandsbitumendilutedwitheithergascondensate(i.e.,“dilbit”)orsyntheticcrude oil (“synbit”). Gas condensate, sometimes referred to as “naturalgasoline”, consists mostly of hydrocarbons that condense from natural gaswells at atmospheric pressure and room temperatures. Most of these gascondensate hydrocarbons range from pentane (C5H12) through dodecane(C12H26). Synthetic crude oil is produced by refining oil‐sands bitumen.Sometimesamixtureofgascondensateandsyntheticcrudeoil isusedasthediluent,denotedas“dilsynbit”.Dilutionlowersthedensityandtheviscosityoftheresultingfluidsothatitcanbeshippedthroughpipelines.2

1StantecConsultingLtd. (2013)Ecological risk assessmentofmarine transportation spills, technicalreportfortheTransMountainPipelineULC,TransMountainexpansionproject.Document#RE‐NEB‐TERA‐00031,StantecConsultingLtd.,845ProspectStreet,Fredericton,NewBrunswick,E3B2T7.

2See s. 5.1.3 for additional details regarding the physical properties and chemical composition ofdilutedbitumen.

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary3.0BackgroundonProjectaswellastheBurrardInletandFraserRiverEstuaryEcosystems

17

66. TheSalishSea,andespeciallyBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary,isoneof the most ecologically important coastal marine habitats along the entirePacificcoastofNorthAmerica.Itisseasonallyinhabitedbyoveramillionsea‐and shorebirds, including more than 30% of the global population of snowgeese. It is one of just 6 sites along the west coast of North America ofinternational and hemispheric importance. It is the only site of comparableecologicalimportancefromtheCanadianborderwiththeStateofWashingtontotheCopperRiverdeltainAlaska.3

67. The Fraser River is the largest single salmon‐producing river on the PacificcoastofNorthAmerica(includingAlaska),supportingrunsofsockeyesalmon(Oncorhynchusnerka)thatcannumberinthetensofmillions,alongwithmajorrunschinook(O.tshawytscha),chum(O.keta),pink(O.gorbuscha)andcoho(O.kisutch)salmon,aswellassteelheadtrout(O.mykiss).4Thesereturningadultsalmonsupportseveralspeciesofmarinemammals,includingtheendangeredsouthern resident killer whale (Orcinus orca) stock, commercial fisheriesworth millions of dollars, and subsistence harvests for First Nations thatdependonthemformaintainingtheirculturalheritageaswellasfornutrition.Juvenilesalmonout‐migratingfromtheFraserRiverdependontheestuary’shigh biological productivity and in turn provide forage for the seabirds andotherfishspecies.

68. The combinedaggregationsof extraordinarilyhighdensities andnumbersofsea‐ and shorebirds, marine mammals and fish make them especiallyvulnerabletopotentiallydevastatingmortalitiesshouldamajoroilspilloccurinBurrardInletortheFraserRiverestuaryasaresultoftheProject.Seabirds and shorebirds are particularly sensitive to both internal and external oil exposure, and their foraging habits, preening behaviour and resting requirements lead to frequent contact with surface oil when present. Petroleum exposure alters feather microstructure, compressing plumage so that it loses its buoyancy, insulating function, and flight capability. Birds contaminated at sea thereby succumb from drowning, hypothermia, starvation, or dehydration.

69. My report is divided into twomajor sections. The first section contains mypeer‐reviewoftheTransMountainecologicalriskassessment(ERA),whereIevaluate the methods used for the ERA in the context of requirementsstipulated by the National Energy Board. The second section contains my

3WesternHemisphereShorebirdReserveNetwork(www.whsrn.org/whsrn‐sites).

4MerkensM(2012)InformationsheetonRamsarWetlands(RIS)–2009–2012version.MetropolitanPlanning, Environment and Parks,Metro Vancouver, 4330Kingsway, Burnaby, BC CanadaV3N 2L8;PacificSalmonCommission(2015)ReportoftheFraserRiverPaneltothePacificSalmonCommissiononthe2009FraserRiverSockeyeandPinksalmonfishingseason.


18

independentassessmentofthefateandeffectsofoilspillsfromtheProjectinBurrard Inlet and the Fraser River estuary, focusing on how accidentally‐dischargeddilutedbitumencoulddispersewithinthereceivingwatersof theSalish Sea, how long it could persist on shorelines, and how it could affectmarine‐dependent organisms. My emphasis in the second section is on oildispersionpathways,shorelineretentionfactors,andmechanismsoftoxicandecologicalinjurythatareeithernotconsideredorreceiveinadequateemphasisintheTransMountainapplicationandsupportingdocuments.


19

Figure1. Salish Sea, including Burrard Inlet, theWestridge Marine Terminal, Sturgeon Bank, South Armmarshes,Robert’sBank,BoundaryBay, the tankerroute,HaroStrait,andtheoilspillorigin locationsselectedfortheoilspilltrajectorymodelspresentedintheTransMountainERA.

20

4.0 Peer‐ReviewoftheTransMountainApplication

70. The Trans Mountain application presents an evaluation of environmentalthreatsposedbyanoilspillwithintheframeworkofaquantitativeecologicalrisk assessment (ERA). Although this approach has often been used toevaluate environmental risks caused by one or a small number of toxiccompounds associated with well‐defined industrial development projects,applyingittoindustrialaccidents,especiallylargeonesinthecaseofmajoroilspills,isconsiderablymoredifficult.Problemformulation,assessmentsofexposure,andassessmentsofhazardsareespeciallychallengingowingtotheplethora of oil spill discharge scenarios and the multiplicity of exposurepathways, compounded by multiple modes of toxic action that can resultfromexposuretooil.

71. Oil spills are classic “low‐probability/high‐consequence” events, requiringcareful assessment of potential impacts to the most sensitive species andhabitats in addition to habitats and species most likely to be exposed. Byconfounding assessments of exposureprobability and sensitivity of speciesand habitats, the Trans Mountain ERA largely excludes the most seriousconsequencesthatcouldoccurfromconsideration.

72. TheNationalEnergyBoarddeterminedthattheTransMountainapplication“...mustincludeanassessmentofpotentialaccidentsandmalfunctionsattheTerminal andat representative locationsalong themarine shipping routes.Selectionof locations shouldbe risk informed consideringbothprobabilityandconsequence.”5

73. However, Trans Mountain ERA fails to select locations informed by thepotential consequences of oil spills. TransMountain therefore ignores andfails tocomplywith theNationalEnergyBoard’s requirementsbyselectinglocationsonlybasedonTransMountain’sassessmentoftheprobabilityofanoilspill,whichareneitherrepresentativenortypicalofthesurroundingarea.

74. TheTransMountainERAisbasedonawell‐establishedfive‐stepprocedurefor integrating oil exposure risk and the sensitivity of species exposed toestimate the overall likelihood of adverse impacts, including very lowprobability impacts that could have catastrophic consequences following aspill. The five steps include: (1) problem formulation, (2) exposureassessment, (3) hazard assessment, (4) risk characterization, and (5) anevaluation of certainty and confidence in predictions. Problem formulationinvolves identifying the nature of the threat, and its spatial and temporal

5 National Energy Board letter dated 10 September 2013 and attachment entitled, “Filing Requirements Related to the Potential Environmental and Socio-Economic Effects of Increased Marine Shipping Activities”.

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary4.0PeerReviewoftheTransMountainApplication

21

boundaries.Exposureassessment involves evaluationof the likelihood thatspeciesorhabitatswillbeexposedtocontamination,andhazardassessmentinvolvesassessmentofthespecies’orhabitat’ssensitivitytoexposure.Riskcharacterizationistheprocessofintegratingthelikelihoodofexposureandthe likelihood of adverse consequences should exposure occur, and theuncertaintyanalysisassesses theoverallconfidence in thequantitativeriskestimatesofinjury.

75. ThereareatleastfourfundamentaldeficienciesinTransMountain’sERA:

(a) itfailstointegrateoilexposureriskbasedonrepresentativelocationswithin ecologically distinct sub‐regions along the marine shippingroutes,includingatornearecologically‐sensitiveareas;

(b) it fails to assess hazard independently of exposure. TransMountainconcludes that hazard isminimal based on its prior conclusion thatthere isa lowprobabilityofoiling.However,TransMountainshouldhave assessed hazard based on species sensitivity to oilingindependentlyofoilingprobability;

(c) it fails to assess the possibility of organisms being exposed tosubmergedoil;and

(d) itfailstoconsiderallthewaysthatoilcanharmorganisms.

4.1 Trans Mountain fails to assess exposure based onrepresentativelocations

76. The exposure risks presented in theTransMountain ERA are based on oilspill trajectory models that originate from four locations judged to be“representative” along the oil transhipment corridor. These four locationsinclude (1) the intersection of the transhipment corridor with theVancouver‐Victoria ferryroute,on thepremise thatanoil spill causedbyacollisionbetweenanoiltankerandaferrywouldbemostlikelythere;(2)apoweredgroundingatArachneReef;(3)inJuandeFucaStraitresultingfromcollisionwith vessels crossing from Puget Sound; and (4) Buoy J near theentrance to Juan de Fuca Strait caused by vessels approaching the trafficseparationscheme(Figure1).

77. Other scenario possibilities considered but rejected include English Bay,RobertsBank,andthepilotboardingareaatBrotchie.Noneofthelocationsselectedarerepresentative.


22

78. WithinGeorgiaStrait,oilslicktrajectoriesfromthesingleoriginconsideredarepresumedtorepresentthelikelihoodoftrajectoriesfromotherlocations,but clearlya spilloccurringwithinBurrard Inletwouldhaveverydifferenttrajectories, and hence probabilities of oiling particular habitats orshorelines. Because slick trajectories vary stronglywith the location of thespill origin, a truly representative approach for estimating the probabilitythat particular habitats, shorelines or species would be exposed to oilrequiresmorethanasinglepointoforiginforoilspill trajectorymodelling.RelianceonasinglepointoforiginwithinGeorgiaStraitisthereforefarfromrepresentative,andactuallyintroducesastrongbiastotheERA.

79. Italsointroducesanadditionalstrongbiasregardingestimationofriskthatanaccidentmayoccur.Bylimitingthespilltrajectoryscenariotoasinglelocationforthespillorigin,theresultingriskassessmentpresumesthatthe likelihood of a spill originating at any other point along thetranshipmentcorridorwithinGeorgiaStraitisnotjustlow,butzero.So,aspillcausedbyacollisionintheOuterHarbourofBurrardInletfromsomeun‐anticipated cause would presumably never happen. But accidents, andespecially largeoilspills,oftenhappenasaresultofhighlyimprobablyandunforeseenchainsofcausalitythatareverydifficulttoanticipate.WeknowthattheactualriskofatankerspilloriginatingatotherlocationsinGeorgiaStrait is not really zero, and a more credible risk assessment would takegreater pains to evaluate and integrate these risks. Evaluating these otherrisks is important, because spills originating from different locations mayhavemuchdifferent impacts on sensitive shorelinehabitats. This is clearlyevidentintheresultsforthespilltrajectorymodelpresentedfortheGeorgiaStraitlocation—hadthespilloriginbeenlocatedclosertotheOuterHarbourof Burrard Inlet, the trajectory modelling would likely have led toconsiderably increased likelihood of oiling on Sturgeon Bank, possiblyplacingtenstohundredsofthousandsofshorebirdsatriskofoiling.Suchanoutcome has been demonstrated in another expert report prepared forTsleil‐WaututhNationandtheCityofVancouverbyGenwestSystems,whichshowed that anoil spill origin in theOuterHarbourofBurrard Inlet couldleadtooilingonthenorthernendofSturgeonBanks.6

80. Risks from oil spills that originate from other locations along thetranshipment route through Georgia Strait may be readily evaluated byconducting a “threat zone analysis” for habitats of high concern. A threatzoneanalysisiscomplementarytotheoilspillscenarioanalysispresentedin

6Genwest Systems Inc. (2015) Oil spill trajectorymodeling report in Burrard Inlet for the TransMountainExpansionProject. GenwestTechnicalReport#15‐03. GenwestSystems Inc.,Edmonds,Washington,USA98020


23

the Trans Mountain application. It consists of evaluating the likelihood ofoiling at a particular location from each of several assumed spill originsdistributed within the area of concern. That is, it answers the question“Wherecouldoilcome from thatcouldreachaparticularresourcearea?” InGeorgia Strait, this could be readily accomplished by selecting severallocations along the transhipment route, 10 say, at equal intervals fromBurrard Inlet to the Gulf Islands, and evaluating the likelihood that a spilloriginatingateachoftheselocationsmightcontaminateaspecifiedpointorpointsofparticularconcern,forexamplethemudflatsofSturgeonBank.

81. Ashorelinethreatzoneanalysisisreadilyperformedandwasinfactdonebythe Gitxa’ala Nation as part of their response to the Northern GatewayapplicationtobuildapipelineandmarineoilshipmentterminalatKitimat,BritishColumbia.7Thesoftwareforthisanalysis,TrajectoryAnalysisPlanner(TAPII)wasdevelopedbytheU.S.NationalOceanographicandAtmosphericAdministration (NOAA) and is readily available. The threat zone analysisperformedfortheGitxa’alaFirstNationinvolved23differentassumedspillorigin locations to evaluate the likelihood of shoreline oiling at particularsites. This approach should be included in the Trans Mountain ERA,especiallygiventhehighresourcevalueofFraserRiverdeltashorelinesforresidentandmigratorysea‐andshorebirds.

82. Athreatzoneanalysis ismostusefullyappliedtolocationsandspeciesthatare especially sensitive to oil exposure. Such locations include aggregationareas of highly vulnerable species like birds, or habitats like armouredshorelinesortidalmarsheswereoilretentionmaybeprolonged.Acrediblethreat zone analysis would begin with identifying these areas withoutregardforpreconceptionsaboutthelikelihoodofoilingfromaspill,andthenevaluatetheoverallriskofoilingintegratedacrossplausiblespilloriginlocations.

83. Byfocusingonhabitatoilingprobabilitiesderivedfromthe limitednumberof spill origin locations considered, the Trans Mountain ERA precludesquantitative evaluation of risks for injuries to living marine‐dependentresources. The current ERA only evaluates risks to habitat oiling from thespilloriginlocationsconsideredontheadditionalassumptionthatwindandcurrent regimes are always similar to those of fall 2011 through summer

7Beegle‐KrauseCJ,EmmettB,HammondM,ShortJ,SpiesR(Contributors)andLBeckmann(editor)(2011)Expertopiniononpetroleumtankeraccidentsandmalfunctions inBrowningEntranceandPrincipeChannel:PotentialmarineeffectsonGitxaalatraditionallandsandwatersofaspillduringtanker transport of bitumen from the Northern Gateway Pipeline Project (NGP). JFK LawCorporation,CounseltoGitxaalaFirstNation,340‐1122MainlandStreet,Vancouver,BCV6B5L1.


24

2012.TheERAdoesnot consider the sizesofpopulationsvulnerable tooilexposures even in the habitats identified as likely to be oiled, whichprecludesevaluationofthescopeofpopulation‐leveleffects inanycredibleworstcasescenario.ThisindeedisatouchstoneforacredibleandusefulERA– to evaluate, in quantitative numerical terms, the numbers of individualsthatmight be injured or killed from oil exposure. All such evaluations areconspicuously absent in the ERA because Trans Mountain’s flawedimplementationoftheERAmethodologyprecludesanysuchestimation.So,we simply do not have any idea howmany seabirds might be killed by acredible worst‐case spill on the basis of Trans Mountain’s ERA, yet thesesorts of estimates are crucial for assessing the potential environmentaleffectsoftheProject.

4.2 Trans Mountain fails to assess hazard independently ofexposure

84. The Trans Mountain ERA presumes that assessments of injury to specificpopulationsmaybedismissediftheirestimateofexposureriskissufficientlysmall.IntheERA,riskisusuallycharacterizedasthelikelihoodofexposureto an amount of toxicant capable of causing injury to a particular species,withoutregardfortheconsequenceshouldexposureactuallyoccur.

85. Oilslicktrajectoryscenariosbasedonmodelsdrivenbyhistoricalwindandcurrentdataledtoidentificationofhabitatsandshorelinetypesmostlikelytobeoiled.Becauseresultsfromasinglelocationwereincorrectlytakenas“typical” of Georgia Strait, habitats and the species that had low estimatedlikelihoods of oilingwere then presumed to have low sensitivity to oiling.This approach effectively confounds exposure risk and hazard assessment,whereastheconceptualfoundationofERAexpresslyseparatesassessmentsof exposure and hazard, precisely to avoid such confounding. ThisconfoundingaloneinvalidatestheTransMountainERA.

86. ThemethodusedbyTransMountaintoevaluatethesensitivityofspeciestooilingisalsoflawed.IntheTransMountainERA,speciessensitivitytooilingissemi‐quantitatively“assessed”byassigning“biologicalsensitivityrankingfactors”(BSF)tospeciesorhabitatscategorizedonthebasisoftaxonomicorhabitat similarity. The four categories considered include seabirds,marinemammals, fish and other inhabitants of the water column and shorelines.Within each category, the same semi‐quantitative measures of sensitivity(low,BSF=1;medium,BSF=2;high,BSF=3,andveryhigh,BSF=4)areapplied.Thisapproachis invalidbecauseitcreatesamisleadingappearanceoffalseequivalencies for sensitivities to oiling across species and habitats. Forexample,allbirdsarecorrectlyviewedashighlysensitivetooilexposure,yet


25

shorebirdsareassignedthe lowestBSF,equatingtheirsensitivity to thatofpelagicfishormarineinvertebratessuchasworms,mussels,andcrabsetc.,allofwhicharesubstantially lesssensitive tooilexposure thanshorebirds.These false equivalencies are artifacts of the inappropriate categorizationschemeimposedontheorganismsconsidered.Thisschemeisnotbasedonfundamentaldifferencesinsensitivity,butontaxonomicsimilaritiesthatarelargelyblindtotheinherentsensitivitiesoftheorganismsevaluated.

87. Inreality,allbirdsareextremelysensitivetooilexposure—evenminoroilingofplumageresultsinmorbidityormortalityforsea‐orshorebirdsinhabitingcold‐waterhabitats(sees.5.3.1).8Thisisbecauseoilinginterfereswithflightand thermoregulation, and the time and effort required for preening toremovetheoildetractsfromforaging,amongotheradverseeffects.Hence,allbirds,whetherseabirds,shorebirdsor terrestrialbirds,shouldbeaccordedveryhighsensitivitytooilingcontact,andvisibleoilingofplumageisusuallypresumedtobelethalforbirdsinhabitingcoolorcoldclimatessuchasthatoftheGeorgiaStrait.9

88. The basis for assigning BSFs to shoreline types is also over‐simplified.Retentionofoilbysandandmudflatshorelinesispresumedtobelowonthebasisoftheirlowhydraulicconductivities,whichwouldimpedepenetrationof oil stranded on shoreline surfaces to deeper sediment where oil mightpersist.Butthisignorestheeffectsofchannelscreatedbyburrowinganimalsthat inhabit these shorelines. These channels provide conduits for oil topercolate into deeper sediments, and once there the oil may persist fordecades or possibly even centuries.10Similar conduits may be created onothershorelinetypesaswell,whensedimentsdominatedbysand‐andmud‐sizedparticlesliebeneathcoarsersurfacelayersofcobblestoboulders.

8CarterHR,LeeVA,PageGW,ParkerMW,FordRG,SwartzmanG,KressSW,SiskinBR,SingerSW,FryDM(2003)The1986ApexHoustonoilspillincentralCalifornia:seabirdinjuryassessmentsandlitigationprocess.MarineOrnithology31:9–19;CastegeI,LalanneY,GouriouV,HemeryG,GirinM,D’AmicoF,MouchesC,D’Elbee J, SoulierL,Pensu J,LafitteD,PautrizelF (2007)Estimatingactualseabirds mortality at sea and relationship with oil spills: lessons from the Prestige oil spill inAquitaine(France).Ardeola54:289–307;MunillaI,ArcosJM,OroD,ÁlvarezD,LeyendaPM,VelandoA(2011)MassmortalityofseabirdsintheaftermathofthePrestigeoilspill.Ecosphere2:art83;PageGW,CarterHR,FordRG(1990)Numbersofseabirdskilledordebilitatedbythe1986ApexHoustonoilspillincentralCalifornia.StudiesinAvianBiology14:164‐174.

9Page(1990).

10Culbertson JB, Valiela I, Pickart M, Peacock EE, Reddy CM (2008) Long‐term consequences ofresidualpetroleumonsaltmarshgrass.JournalofAppliedEcology45:1284‐1292.


26

4.3 TransMountain fails to assess thepossibilityoforganismsbeingexposedtosubmergedoil

89. TheTransMountainERAdismissesthepossibilityofexposuretosubmergedoil,mainlyonthebasisofflawedexperimentalstudiesdonetoevaluatethesusceptibility of diluted bitumen to submerge in water from evaporationalone. As a result, potentially major oil exposure pathways are excluded,which could expose a host of species, many of which are important forcommercialandsubsistenceharvests.

90. BitumenextractedfromtheAlbertaoilsandsconsistsofpetroleumnaturallybiodegradedinsitupriortoextraction,resultingina“heavyoil”ofrelativelyhighdensity(≈1,040kg/m3)aswellashighviscosity.11Atleastsomeofthemineddeposits producebitumenwithdensities higher thanwater,makingthe raw bitumen susceptible to sinking inwater.12Dilution of the bitumenwithgascondensateorsyntheticcrudeoildiluentslowersthedensityoftheresulting mixture to less than 940 kg/m3, which is less dense than water(density ≈ 1,000 kg/m3) and would therefore float. However, evaporativelosses of diluents can return the density of the remainingmixture to nearthatoftherawbitumen,makingthemixtureagainsusceptibletosubmerginginwater.

91. Bitumensubmergedbeneaththeseasurface ismuchmoredifficult totrackas it disperseswithin receivingwaters to shorelines, the seafloor, and theopenocean, all ofwhich exposebiological communities along theway thatare difficult to observe or sample, and increase uncertainty regarding theextent and severity of contamination. This increased uncertainty typicallyleads to overly pessimistic public speculation regarding the extent andseverityofcontaminationthatcanhaveseriouslyadverseconsequencesforsubsistenceharvestsbyFirstNationsand for commercial activities suchascommercialfishingandtourismthatdependonpublicperceptionsofwatersuncontaminated by oil products. In addition, oil spill response planning ismuch more challenging if contingencies for submerged oil must beconsideredandincluded.Determiningwhetherdilutedbitumenproductscansubmerge in receivingwaters is therefore a high priority both for oil spillcontingencyplanningandfortheERA.

11MeyerRF,AttanasiE(2004)Naturalbitumenandextra‐heavyoil.Ch.4in2004SurveyofEnergyResources,WorldEnergyCouncil,Elsevier.

12Ibid.


27

92. Several experimental studies have been conducted to evaluate theenvironmental conditions and times required for diluted bitumen tosubmerge in receivingwaters. Inparticular, fiveexperimental studieswereconductedusingtwobitumen/diluentblends(AccessWesternBlend(AWB)andColdLakeBitumen(CLB))thatwereconsideredtobetypicalofmostoftheproductsthatwouldbeshippedthroughtheProject.13

93. The experimental results for CLBwere used for the ERA presented in theTrans Mountain application. However, those studies provide limitedguidanceforpredictingthetimerequiredfortheseproductstosubmergeinwater. Evaporation rates of diluted bitumen products from the Alberta oilsands differ markedly from those typical of normal crude oils, becausediluted bitumen consists of a high‐volatility diluentmixedwith a very lowvolatility heavy petroleum, whereas the composition of normal crude oilsvariesmoresmoothlyfromhigh‐tolow‐volatilitycomponents(sees.5.1.3).Consequently, the density of dilutedbitumenproducts changes even fasterthan that of normal crude oils immediately after discharge to receivingwaters.

94. Moreover, the thick oil layers (~1.14 mm–20 mm) used in the fiveexperimentalstudieswouldrarelyoccurduringtheinitialdischargephaseofarealoilspillunlessthespilloccurredinaconfinedareathatpreventedtheoillayerfromspreadingtoitsfullestnaturalextent.Thethicknessofdilutedbitumenslicksthatareallowedtospreadinunconfinedwatersisaround0.4mm,14which is 3 to 50 times thinner than the oil slick layers used in theexperiments. Because the time required for density increases is inverselyproportionaltooilslickthickness,theseexperimentsover‐estimatethetimerequired for spilleddilutedbitumen toapproach thedensityof the surfacewatersandhencetosubmerge.

95. A recently‐published study that directly compared measured evaporationrates from an experimental oil spill in the North Sea with results fromequations predicting evaporation rates derived from thick oil slicksdeveloped and used by Environment Canada showed that the equations

13SeeAppendix3.

14StronachJ,HospitalA(2013)TechnicalmemotoTransMountaindated4July2013re:SpreadingofDilutedBitumen.


28

overestimatedthetimerequiredforevaporativelossesbyafactorofaround20.15

96. The time required for evaporative weathering to increase the density ofdiluted bitumen above that of fresh water is a crucial concern in BurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary.ThesurfacewatersthereareoftenfreshornearlysoduringthespringandsummerfreshetoftheFraserRiver(sees.5.1.2).

97. Theparamountconcernhereisnotsimplywhetherevaporationcouldcausedilutedbitumentosinktotheseafloorinfull‐strengthseawater,butwhetherit could submerge in the nearly fresh surface waters of the Fraser Riverfreshet.Thethresholdforsubmergenceinfreshwaterismuchlowerthanforsinking in seawater having salinities typical of the open ocean (density ≈1,025kg/m3),becausethedensityoffreshwaterissubstantiallylower(1,000kg/m3).

98. Appropriate corrections for actual oil slick thicknesses likely to beencountered immediately following discharge indicate that the density ofdiluted bitumen could increase above that of water within as little as 24hours under optimal conditions of moderate winds, warm summertemperatures and low‐salinity surface waters typical of the Fraser Riverestuaryduringthespringandsummerfreshet.16Othermechanismssuchascontact with shoreline sediments or accumulation of small amounts ofsuspended inorganic material in the water column would increase thelikelihoodthatspilleddilutedbitumencouldsubmergeinbrackishreceivingwaters.Thisisofparticularconcernduringthespringandsummerfreshetinthe Fraser River where the discharge plume depresses the salinity of thesurface water to nearly that of freshwater, and is laden with suspendedinorganicmaterial(seeFigure2).17

99. Submergence of diluted bitumen following an accidental release greatlyincreases the risk of oil exposure through contact or ingestion for speciesinhabiting thewater column, fromphytoplankton to fish. Contaminationofthese species in turnprovidesapathway for secondaryexposure forother

15Gros J,NabiD,WurzB,WickLY,BrussardCPD,Huisman J, vanderMeer JR,ReddyCM,Arey JS(2014)Firstdayofanoilspillontheopensea:Earlymasstransfersofhydrocarbonstoairandwater.EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology48:9400‐9411.

16SeeAppendix3.

17ThomsonRE(1991)OceanographyoftheBritishColumbiaCoast.CanadianSpecialPublicationofFisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Ocean Physics Division,InstituteofOceanSciences,Sydney,BritishColumbia.


29

species that consume them, such as marine mammals. In addition,suspension‐feedingorganismsinhabitingshorelinesarealsovulnerabletooilexposurethroughingestionofsubmergedoildropletsentrainedinthewatercolumn.However,noneoftheseexposurepathwaysareconsideredinTransMountain’sERA.

FateaFraser4.0Pe

Figur

andEffectofOrRiverEstuareerReviewo

re4.Springfre

OilSpillsfromryftheTransM

eshetoftheFr

theTransMou

MountainApp

raserRiverint

untainExpans

plication

30

totheestuary

sionProjectin

yandreceiving

nBurrardInle

gwatersofthe

etandthe

eSalishSea.


31

4.4 TransMountain fails to consider all theways that oil canharmorganisms

100. TheTransMountainapplicationfailstoconsideranyconsequencesthatmayresult from photo‐enhanced toxicity. This toxicity mechanism has recentlybeen shown to be important for species such as Pacific herring (Clupeapallasi),whicharean importantcomponentof themarineecosystemintheSalishSea.Pacificherringdepositeggsonintertidalreachesofshorelines.18Certaincompoundsinbitumencandissolveintowaterandthenbeabsorbedby translucent Pacific herring embryos. When exposed to sunlight, thesecompounds promote oxidation of tissues within the embryos, in effectburningthem.ThiseffectwasdemonstratedtooccurforherringembryosonshorelinesofSanFranciscoBayafterthe2009CoscoBusanoilspill.19Failureto address the different damage pathways contributes to the thematicunderestimation of risks of exposure and especially consequences in theTransMountainERA.

101. The cumulative effects of the flawedapproachused in theTransMountainERAisillustratedbycomparingtheconclusionsreachedintheERAwiththeeffects of an actual oil spill involving circumstances that are largelycomparablewiththoseintheFraserRiverestuaryandwiderSalishSea.

102. The 2007 Hebei Spirit off the west coast of South Korea released about11,000 m3 of heavy oil crude oil 8 km from the nearest shoreline. Theaccidentresultedfromamarinecranebargesetadriftinheavyseasafterthetowcabletothetugsnapped,andthebargecollidedwiththeT/VHebeiSpiritwhile at anchor. Onshore winds caused extensive heavy shoreline oiling,including mud and sand beaches used by shorebirds and invertebrateinfauna (Figure 3). All the shorebirds on the most heavily oiled sandybeacheslikelydiedwithinhours(Figure4).Shorelineoilingeffectspersistedforyears,evenonthesandbeaches.20

103. Key points of comparisonwith Georgia Strait include the proximity of thespill origin to a high‐value sandy‐beach shoreline for both tourism and for

18DFO (2005) StockAssessmentReportOnStraitofGeorgiaPacificHerring. Fisheries andOceansCanada,CanadianScienceAdvisorySecretariat,ScienceAdvisoryReport2005/068.

19IncardonaJP,VinesCA,LinboTL,MyerMS,SloanCA,AnulacionBF,BoydD,CollierTK,MorganS,Cherr GN, Scholz NL (2012) Potent phototoxicity of marine bunker oil to translucent herringembryosafterprolongedweathering.PLoSONE7(2):e30116.

20YimUH,KimM,SungYH,KimS,ShimWJ(2012)Oilspillenvironmentalforensics:theHebeiSpiritoilspillcase.EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology46:6431‐6437.


32

shorebirds, the un‐anticipated nature of the accident, the heavy crude oilreleasedandthecold‐watersea.

FateaFraser4.0Pe

Fsc

andEffectofOrRiverEstuareerReviewo

Figure3.Oiledspill.Thisbeacopyrightcour

OilSpillsfromryftheTransM

dsandbeachchisoneofthrtesyofJungd

theTransMou

MountainApp

atTae’an,Rephemostpopuldo‐ilbo,Repub

untainExpans

plication

33

publicofKorelarseasideresblicofKorea.

sionProjectin

eadaysaftertsortsintheRe

nBurrardInle

he2007HebeepublicofKor

etandthe

eiSpiritoilrea.Photo

F4

FateandEffectof4.0PeerReview

FigurJungd

OilSpillsfromtheoftheTransMou

re4. Initial oilingdo‐ilbo,Republico

eTransMountainuntainApplicatio

gofTae’anBeach,ofKorea.

ExpansionProjecon

,Republic ofKor

ctinBurrardInlet

34

ea, from the2007

andtheFraserRi

7HebeiSpirit oil

iverEstuary

spill. Photo copyright courtesyof


35

104. ConsideringhowTransMountainwouldhaveevaluatedthepotentialfortheaccidentandeffectsoftheHebeiSpiritoilspillillustratesthedefectsofTransMountain’sapproach.First,theaccidentitselfwouldhavebeendismissedastoo improbable for consideration because it involved an anchored tankersimilar to those within the Outer Harbour of Burrard Inlet, which wereexcluded from consideration by the Trans Mountain ERA. Second, thelikelihoodofanyshorelineoilingwouldhavebeendismissedasimprobablylowifthespilloriginlocationchosenformodelingwasnotveryclosetotheactualsiteofthespill.Third,effectsontheshorelinehabitatwouldhavebeendismissedasephemeralandonalow‐sensitivityshoreline(BSF=1),becauseit is a sandy beach, despite documented effects on this now very heavilymonitoredbeach forup to fiveyears.21Finally, effectsonshorebirdswouldhavebeendismissedasunlikelybecauseofthelowBSF(=1)assignedtothisgroup.

105. If a spill the size of theHebeiSpirit occurred off the SturgeonBank or theSouthArmMarshesduringonshorewindsandduring thespringshorebirdmigration, itcouldoiltenstohundredsofthousandsofshorebirds,andanycontact with oil would most likely lead to mortality.22This comparisonillustratesthepotentialconsequencesoffundamentalflawsintheapproachusedbyTransMountain’sERA

106. Finally, the Trans Mountain application fails to adequately value theextraordinary biological productivity, diversity, and hence ecologicalimportanceoftheestuarineecosystemoftheFraserRiver.TheFraserRiverestuary is arguably themost important estuarine ecosystem on the entirePacificcoastofNorthAmerica,buttheapplicationfailstoreflectthis.Instead,byconsideringspeciesseparatelywith littleemphasisonthe importanceoftheFraserRiverestuaryasawholetotheglobalpopulationsofthesespeciesortotheecologicalintegrityofthewiderPacificcoastalecosystemofwhichit is a major part, the application undervalues the potential ecologicalconsequencesofoil spills.Moreover,whiletheecologicalriskassessmentattemptstobesemi‐quantitativewithrespecttorisksofhabitatoilingitmakes no attempt to be quantitative with respect to the numbers oforganismspotentiallyatriskofexposure.

21Ibid.

22Page(1990).

36

107. Insummary, theERAas implementedbyTransMountainviolatesthebasicprinciplesofecologicalriskassessment,renderingitthoroughlyunreliableasanassessmentofrisksforthemostseriousconsequencesofalargeoilspillintheSalishSea.Thebasicprinciplesviolatedinclude:

Failure to account for variation in oil slick trajectories that dependstrongly on the assumed point of origin for a spill in trajectorymodeling, including complete absence of consideration for any spillthatmightoccurwithinBurrardInlet;

Confoundingassessmentsofoil exposureand thehazardspresentedbytheseexposurestohabitatsandmarine‐dependentorganisms;

Presumptive and erroneous characterization of some of the mostvulnerableandsensitivehabitatsandspecies,namelyshorebirdsthatinhabit the flats along the Fraser River delta, as among the leastvulnerable to oil exposure and the least sensitive should exposureoccur;

Useofanarbitraryschemeforassigningsensitivities tohabitatsandspecies;

Failure to consider potentially important exposure pathwaysassociated with diluted bitumen that could submerge in the nearlyfresh surface waters of the Fraser River freshet during spring andsummer;

Failuretoconsideralltherelevanttoxicitymechanismsthroughwhichexposure to toxic components of diluted bitumen can harmmarineorganisms;and

Failure to provide quantitative estimates of potential injuries tospecies and resources most sensitive to injury from exposure todilutedbitumen.

108. These flaws lead to serious underestimation of the harm that could beinflictedbyamajorspillofdilutedbitumenonmarineorganisms.Asaresult,the Trans Mountain ERA cannot be used or relied upon to assess theenvironmentaleffectsofanoilspillfromtheProject.

37

5.0 Fate, Behaviour and Effects of Diluted BitumenDischargedintoBurrardInlet,theFraserRiverEstuaryandtheSalishSea

109. InthissectionIpresentananalysisofthelikelyfate,behaviourandeffectsofdilutedbitumen spilled into the Salish Sea, includingBurrard Inlet and therestoftheFraserRiverestuary.ThisanalysisdemonstratestheconsiderablybroaderscopeforecologicaldamageshouldaspilloccurthanisrecognizedintheTransMountainapplication.

5.1 Fate and behaviour of diluted bitumen discharged intoBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary

110. Thedistribution,fate,andeffectsofoilspilledintoreceivingwatersdependcrucially on how the initial composition of the oil changes in response toambient environmental conditions. This section summarizes how thephysicalandchemicalpropertiesofdilutedbitumenwillchangefollowinganaccidentaldischarge, themost important factorsaffectingtheratesofthesechanges, and how these changes affect the behaviour of spilled dilutedbitumen in the receivingwaters asmodulated by the seasonal variation ofenvironmental conditions. These comparisons set limits on the differentwaysspilleddilutedbitumencanmove through themarineecosystem,andthekindsandlocationsoforganismsathighestriskofcontamination.

5.1.1 Factors affecting the fate and behaviour of oil discharged to receivingwaters

KEYPOINTS:

Spilledoilsfollowacharacteristicsequenceofchangesthataffectthefate,behaviour,andeffectsonanimalsandplantsintheenvironment

Themostimportantenvironmentalfactorsthataffecthowfasttheoilcompositionchangesaretemperature,windspeed,andslickthickness

111. Once discharged to receiving waters, the composition and physicalpropertiesofpetroleumproducts typically followa characteristic sequenceofchanges(Figure5). If theseasurface is initiallyagitated,breakingwavesmay naturally disperse floating oil into droplets, entraining them into thewater column near the sea surface. While some components of oils maydissolve into the water during submergence, other processes including

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary5.0Fate,BehaviourandEffectsofDilutedBitumenDischargedintoBurrardInlet,theFraserRiverEstuaryandtheSalishSea

38

evaporation and photo‐oxidation are dramatically curtailed comparedwithoilexposeddirectlytotheatmosphereanddirectsunlight23.

112. Incalmweather,floatingoilsspreadrapidlyonthesurfaceofthewatertoathin layer determined by the viscosity and surface tension of the oil.Spreadinggreatlyincreasestherelativesurfacearea(i.e.,thesurfaceareaperunit volume of oil), which promotes evaporation of the most volatilecomponentsoftheoil.

113. Evaporationof volatile components acts on time scales of hours todays. Itchanges the composition of the oil remaining much more rapidly thandissolution,microbialoxidationorphoto‐oxidation,whichactontimescalesofdays toweeks24.Evaporative losses eventually increaseoil viscosity andsurface tension, often accompanied by increased absorption of water.25Togetherthesechangescausetheoiltocongeal,reducingtherelativesurfaceareaof theoil andhenceslowing the rateof further lossesbyevaporation.Changes inoilcompositionandpropertiesarehencemostrapidduringthefirst hours and days of a spill, modulated by the particular environmentalconditionspresent.

114. Temperatureandwindspeedarethemostimportantenvironmentalfactorsthatdeterminetherateofvolatilitylossesfromspilledpetroleumproducts.26The changes inoil composition causedby these factors in turnaffectotherprocesses that alter oil composition, including dissolution of sparingly‐solublecomponentsintotheunderlyingwatercolumn,photo‐oxidation,andmicrobial degradation. All of these processes affect how and where oilcomponentsdisseminateintheenvironmentandmovethroughecosystems,howlongtheywillpersist,andwhatorganismstheymayaffect.

115. The remainder of this section addresses the characteristic environmentalconditionsofBurrard Inletand theFraserRiverestuary,withanemphasison conditions that might be conducive to oil submergence. It thensummarizesthephysicalpropertiesandchemicalcompositionsofthedilutedbitumen products most likely to be accidentally released, the effects ofenvironmental weathering processes, and finally discusses the likelybehaviour of diluted bitumen following an accidental discharge. This

23Gros2014.

24Ibid.

25FingasM(2013)TheBasicsofOilSpillCleanup.CRCPress,Taylor&FrancisGroup,6000BrokenSoundParkwayNW,Suite300,BocaRaton,FL33487‐2742.

26Gros2014.


39

behaviour will impose constraints on the environmental distribution andbiological effects of accidentally spilled diluted bitumen discussed insubsequentsections.

F5

FateandEffectof5.0Fate,Behavio

Figure5.CoNationalEnProject,Volu

OilSpillsfromtheourandEffectsof

onceptualdiagramnergyBoard, Jointume2,Figure6‐1.

eTransMountainfDilutedBitume

mofprocessesaffeReviewPanel(2.“MAH”referstom

ExpansionProjecnDischargedint

ectingcrudeandr013)Consideratiomonocyclicaroma

ctinBurrardInlettoBurrardInlet,

40

refinedoilproducons—Reportofthatichydrocarbons

andtheFraserRitheFraserRiver

ctsaccidentallydisheJointReviewPs.

iverEstuaryrEstuaryandthe

schargetomarinePanel fortheEnbr

eSalishSea

ereceivingwatersridgeNorthernGa

s.Fromateway


41

5.1.2 Summary of seasonal variation of atmospheric and oceanographicconditionsinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary

KEYPOINTS:

SurfacewatersofBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuaryareoftenbrackish and approach freshwaterwithin theFraserRiverdischargeplume.Dilutedbitumen ismore likely to submergeaswater salinitydecreases

Frequentwinds,warmtemperatures,andhighFraserRiverdischargeduring the spring and summer freshet are especially favourableconditionsfordilutedbitumensubmergence

The high tidal excursion range is especially conducive to spilleddilutedbitumenstrandingonshorelines,particularlyonarmouredorlow‐gradientshorelinesinBurrardInlet,andatthehighlyproductive,low‐gradientmudflatsatSturgeonBankandtheSouthArmMarshes

116. Vancouverhasatemperatemarineclimatewithcoolsummersandmoderatewinters.Mean air temperatures typically range from lows near freezing inwinter to highs near 18 °C in summer27(see Table 1). Air temperaturesmonitored hourly during 2005 at stations in Burrard Inlet28ranged fromextremes of ‐7.0 °C inwinter to 28.8 °C in summer (Table 1).Wind speedmonitoringduring thissameperiodreflect shelteringof theembaymentbythesurroundingterrain,withmeanwindspeedsrangingfrom~1–4m/s(or3.6–14.4 km/h). Wind speed vary little seasonally29(Table1). Maximumwinds sustained for 1 hour typically range from10.2–14.7m/s (37.7–51.8km/h) in English Bay, but only 4.5–9.2m/s (16.2–33.1 km/h) in themoreshelteredBurrardInlet30(Table1).

117. MeanannualprecipitationattheEnvironmentCanadamonitoringstationatSecond Narrows in North Vancouver was 1,831mm for the period 1981–

27Davidson LW (1979) On the physical oceanography of Burrard Inlet and Indian Arm, BritishColumbia.MScThesis,UniversityofBritishColumbia.

28CALMETdata.

29Ibid.

30Ibid.


42

2010, with monthly precipitation varying by a factor of about 5 from aminimuminJulytoamaximuminJanuary.31

Table1:Seasonalmeanand1‐hrsustainedmaximumwindspeeds,mean,maximumandminimumairtemperatures,andminimumseasurfacewaterdensityatfour locationsinEnglishBay,BurrardInletandIndianArm,Vancouver,BritishColumbia.

Season: Jan–Mar Apr–Jun Jul–Sep Oct–Dec

English Bay

Wind Speed(m/s)32 Mean 3.6 3.9 3.5 4.0

Max 11.2 11.3 10.8 14.7

Air Temperature(°C)31Mean 6.2 13.4 17.2 7.3

Max 16.1 27.3 27.5 18.5

Min ‐7.0 2.8 7.7 ‐1.9

Minimum Sea Surface

Density (kg/m3)33 1021 1010 1006 1016

Burrard Inlet

Wind Speed(m/s) Mean 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.3

Max 8.5 7.4 7.8 8.8

Air Temperature(°C)Mean 6.3 13.4 17.1 7.2

Max 16.7 28.3 27.7 18.4

Min ‐6.5 2.9 7.8 ‐1.1

Minimum Sea Surface

Density (kg/m3) 1020 1015 1011 1016

31http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?stnID=830&lang=e&StationName=Vancouver&SearchType=Contains&stnNameSubmit=go&dCode=0,accessed25Nov2014.

32Seasonalwindspeedsandair temperatureswerecomputed fromdataproducedby theCALMETmonitoringprogramfortheyear2005.

33Minimum sea surface densities were computed from time‐depth graphs of temperature andsalinityfor1974–1975presentedinFigs.5.11and5.12ofDavidson(1979).


43

Table1(cont’d): Seasonalmeanand1‐hr sustainedmaximumwindspeeds,mean,maximumandminimumairtemperatures,andminimumseasurfacewaterdensityatfourlocationsinEnglishBay,BurrardInletandIndianArm,Vancouver,BritishColumbia.

Season: Jan–Mar Apr–Jun Jul–Sep Oct–Dec

Burnaby


Max 6.0 5.4 4.5 5.7


Max 17.3 28.8 27.9 17.8

Min ‐6.6 1.9 7.8 ‐1.4

Minimum Sea Surface

Density (kg/m3) 1014 1010 1009 1014

Indian Arm


Max 8.5 9.2 5.6 8.8


Max 17.0 28.6 27.7 17.9

Min ‐6.4 2.1 7.8 ‐1.3

Minimum Sea Surface

Density (kg/m3) 1014 1008 1005 1009


44

118. Sea surface waters in Burrard Inlet are brackish, with salinities rarelyexceeding28‰andrangingaslowas11‰inEnglishBayandlessthan10‰ in elsewhere in Burrard Inlet.34In comparison, salinity offshore ofVancouverIslandistypically~32–33‰.35ThelowersalinityofEnglishBayis primarily caused by outflow of freshwater from the Fraser River,whichflowsnorthwardalongthecoastinresponsetoCoriolisforcing.FraserRiveroutflow is greatest during the late spring and early summer freshet frommeltingsnowpackwithintheFraserwatershed.Duringthisperiod“…alayerofbrackishwaterwithsalinitiesoflessthan15‰formsthetopfewmetresovermost of the central and southern sectors of the Strait of Georgia. Thesurfacewaterduringthisperiodoftenhasasweettasteandisdrinkable”36(Figure2).ThelowersalinitiesofBurrardInletresultfromwind‐andtidally‐driven inflow of Fraser River water, augmented by precipitation andassociatedrunofffromthesurroundingcatchmentbasin.

119. SubstantialfreshwaterdischargesreducethedensityofseasurfacewatersinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary.Theseasonalminimumdensityofsurfacewaters in English Bay varies from 1,021 kg/m3 inwinter to 1,006kg/m3 in summer (Table 1).37Similarly among three stations in BurrardInlet,minimumseasurfacedensitiesrangedfrom1,020kg/m3 inwinter to1,005kg/m3insummer(Table1).ElsewhereneartheFraserRiverdelta,theoccasionalpotabilityofthesurfacewaterimpliesdensitieslittlegreaterthan1,000kg/m3.Theseminimumdensitiesof seasurfacewatersare importantbecause they define thresholds for oil submergence resulting from densityincreasescausedbyevaporativeweathering.

120. TheSalishSeaexperiencesmixedsemi‐diurnaltides,withtwohightidesofunequalheightalternatingwithtwolowtidesofunequalheight.Theaveragetidal range is about 3m,with an extreme tidal range of 4.8m.38This hightidalexcursionrangeisconduciveforoilstrandingonshorelines,especiallyifoilaccumulatesontheupper‐partoflow‐gradientshorelinesathightide,andbecomesstrandedasthetidallevelfallsduringtheoutgoingtide.Asthetiderecedes, thewater tablewithinbeach sediments falls,whichallowsdiluted

34Davidson1979.

35Pickard GL, Emery WJ (1993) Descriptive physical oceanography – An Introduction, 5th (SI)enlargededition.PergamonPress,Tarrytown,NY.

36Thomson1991.

37Davidson1979.

38Ibid.


45

bitumen stranded on the beach surface to seep into the beach sediments,especially throughchannels createdbyorganisms thatburrowbeneath thesurfaceofthebeach(sees.5.2).Onceoilpenetratesintobeachesitbecomestrappedbycapillaryforces,sothenextrisingtidecannotdislodgeallorevenmost of it. This sets the stage for long‐term oil persistence in beaches,particularly if the oil penetrates into hypoxic (i.e., low‐oxygen) sedimentswheretherateofmicrobialdegradationisgreatlyslowed.39

5.1.3 Chemicalcompositionandphysicalpropertiesofdilutedbitumen

KEYPOINTS:

The bitumen component of diluted bitumen consists essentially ofhighlybiodegradedpetroleum that is naturallyprone to submerginginfreshandbrackishwater

Diluted bitumen is a mixture of high‐volatility, low‐densityhydrocarbon diluent with low‐volatility, high‐density bitumen andoncespilled,rapidlyloosesthehigh‐volatilitycomponents,inmarkedcontrastwithnormalcrudeorheavyrefinedoils

Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), themosttoxic components of petroleum, in diluted bitumen are comparablewithtypicalconcentrationsincrudeoils

121. Thecompositionofdilutedbitumenarehighlyunusual,anddiffermarkedlyfrom that of typical crude oils. These composition differences affect howdilutedbitumenbehavesintheenvironmentfollowingrelease.Thefollowingsummary of how the bitumen in diluted bitumenwas formed geologicallyexplains why these products are so prone to submerging in fresh andbrackishwaters,andwhybioremediationwouldnotlikelybeaveryeffectivespillresponseoption.

122. Diluted bitumen derived from Alberta oil sands are unusual petroleumproducts, both in the geological formation of the bitumen itself, and in thenecessityforblendingwithotherpetroleumproductsforshipmentthroughpipelines.Consequently results and conclusions regarding the composition,properties, and environmental behaviour that are based onmeasurementsperformed on normal crude oils must be interpreted with caution whenapplied to diluted bitumen. The chemical composition of bitumen differs

39Li H, BoufadelMC (2009) Long‐term persistence of oil from theExxonValdez spill in two‐layerbeaches.NatureGeoscience3:96‐99.


46

markedly from that of most normal crude oils, and these differences areexacerbatedwhenbitumenismixedwithotherrefinedpetroleumproducts.

123. Normally petroleum is formed from accumulations of marine algae onsediments that are subsequently buried and then exposed to elevatedtemperaturesandpressuresovergeological timeperiods.Theseconditionsare strongly reducing, resulting in compounds spanning a continuousspectrumofmolecularweights, frommethane (molecularweightof14Da)throughpoorlycharacterizedasphaltenes(molecularweightsof100,000Daor more). Commercial deposits arise when petroleum migrates throughporous sandstone or shale rocks until it encounters non‐porous rock thatactsasatrappingstructure,allowingthepetroleumtoaccumulate.Anormalcommercial petroleum deposit thus consists of a trapping structure underwhich are successive layers of gases, then petroleum liquids, and finallywater.40

124. Although Alberta oil sands bitumen was initially formed the same way asnormal petroleum, it did not encounter trapping structures during theensuingmigration through porous rocks. Instead, the petroleum continuedmigrating subsurface across the plains to the east from the source rockswhereitwasinitiallyformedneartheeasternmarginoftheCanadianRockyMountains.Alongtheway,thepetroleumwasexposedtooxygenatedwater,which allowed hydrocarbon‐degrading microbes to consume most of thebioavailable oil components. Also, the hydrocarbon and other gasesassociatedwithpetroleumformationandsubsequentmicrobialdegradationeventuallyescapedtotheatmospherethroughfissuresandporousrocksthatestablished conduits to the surface. As a result, Alberta oil sands bitumencharacteristically is denser and considerably more viscous than ordinarycrudeoils.Itisalso“pre‐biodegraded”inthatnearlyallofthebiodegradablecomponents have already been biodegraded.41As a result, remediationmethodsthatrelyonbiodegradationarenotlikelytobeveryeffectivewhenshorelinesarecontaminatedbydilutedbitumenfromtheAlbertaoilsands.

40WalshMP,LakeLW(2003)Ageneralizedapproachtoprimaryhydrocarbonrecovery.HandbookofPetroleumExplorationandProduction,4,J.Cubitt,editor.Elsevier,Oxford,UK.

41NationalEnergyBoard(2000)Canada’soilsands:Asupplyandmarketoutlookto2015.NationalEnergyBoard,Calgary,AB.


47

Figure 6. Distribution of un‐substituted and alkyl‐substitute polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and dibenzothiophenes in un‐weathered AccessWesternBlend(AWB)andColdLakeBitumen(CLB)incomparisonwithAlaskaNorthSlope(ANS)crudeoil.


48

125. Natural biodegradation during formation of the Alberta oil sands led tosubstantial depletion of alkanes and of some PAH, two classes ofhydrocarbons that are ordinarily prominent in crude oils. Normal alkanes,whicharelinearcarbonchainsthataresaturatedwithhydrogen,arealmostcompletelyabsentfromoilsandsbitumen42buttypicallyaccountfor50–100mg/g(i.e.,5–10%byweight)ofnormalcrudeoils.43Ordinarilythetwo‐ringnaphthalenesarethemostabundantPAHinnormalcrudeoils,buttheseareonlyasmallproportionofthePAHinoilsandsbitumen.However,whilethetotal PAH concentration of oil sands bitumen is less than in most normalcrudeoils,concentrationsofthemoretoxic3‐and4‐ringPAHareaboutthesame(Figure6).44

126. Oil sands bitumen may be considered as a normal crude oil that hasundergoneextensiveweathering following release to theenvironment.Theextensivecompositionchangescausedbylossesofvolatilecomponentsandnatural biodegradation of oil sands bitumen in natural formations areconsistent with a weathering index of 5 on the Kaplan and Galperin45petroleumweatheringscaleof1to10,whichisoftenusedtocategorizetheextent of weathering of residual oil following spills. Petroleum that hasweatheredtothisextenthaslittlescopeforbioremediation.

127. As with weathered normal crude oils, the physical properties of oil sandsbitumen are substantially different in comparison with fresh crude oils.Weathered crude oils are denser and much more viscous compared withrespectiveun‐weatheredoils.Thedensitiesofoilsandsbitumenarecloseto1,040 kg/m3,46meaning they would sink in fresh‐ or saltwater, whereasnormalcrudeoilsmoreoftenhavedensitiesnear900kg/m3.47Viscositiesofoil sand bitumen, as with normal crude oils that have weathered asextensively, are~100,000mPa‐s (at 15°C), comparedwith viscosities near

42Yang C, Wang Z, Yang Z, Hollebone B, Brown CE, Landriault M, Fieldhouse B (2011) ChemicalfingerprintsofAlbertaoilsandsandrelatedpetroleumproducts.EnvironmentalForensics12:173‐188.

43EnvironmentCanada,2006.OilPropertiesDatabase.www.etc‐cte.ec.gc.ca/databases/OilProperties/oil_prop_e.html.

44Yang2011;EnvironmentCanada,2006.OilPropertiesDatabase.www.etc‐cte.ec.gc.ca/databases/OilProperties/oil_prop_e.html.

45KaplanIR,GalperinY,LuS‐T,LeeR‐P(1996)Patternsofchemicalchangesduringenvironmentalalterationofhydrocarbonfuels.GroundwaterMonitoringandRemediation:113‐124.

46Meyer2004.

47EnvironmentCanada(2006)OilPropertiesDatabase.www.etc‐cte.ec.gc.ca/databases/OilProperties/oil_prop_e.html.


49

10 mPa‐s for fresh crude oils.48Because of these higher densities andviscosities,oil sandsbitumenmustbedilutedwith low‐viscositypetroleumproducts to ship them through pipelines. Trans Mountain requires thatproducts shipped through their pipelines have densities of 940 kg/m3 (or0.94g/cm3)orless,andkinematicviscositiesof350centistokesorless.49

128. Oil sands bitumen is usually diluted with gas condensate to achieve thedensity and viscosity specifications required for pipeline shipment. Gascondensateconsistsofgasoline‐rangehydrocarbonsthathaveboilingpointsrangingfromthatofpentane(C5H12)throughdodecane(C12H26),or36°Cto~216 °C (Figure 7). This mixture of gas condensate (usually ~30%) andbitumen(~70%)isdilutedbitumen,theproduct tobeshippedthroughtheproposedTransMountainpipelineexpansionproject.

129. Becausedilutedbitumenisessentiallyamixtureofrawgascondensateandextensivelyweatheredcrudeoil,itdoesnotbehaveinquitethesamewayasnormalun‐weatheredpetroleumfollowingaccidentalspills.Dilutedbitumencontainshigherproportionsofthemostvolatilepetroleumhydrocarbonsincomparisonwithnormal crudeoils (Figure7),whichare lostmore rapidlyoncedilutedbitumenisreleasedtotheenvironment.Thiscausesthedensityof diluted bitumen to increase more rapidly than normal crude oils oncespilled. Similarly, diluted bitumen also contains higher proportions of theheaviest fractions of petroleum in comparisonwith normal crude oils (e.g.Figure6).

48Ibid.

49http://www.transmountain.com/product‐shipped‐in‐pipeline. Viscosity is resistance of a fluid toflow,andismeasuredintwoways,asdynamicviscosity(whichhasunitsofPascal‐seconds),andaskinematicviscosity(whichistheratioofdynamicviscosityandfluiddensity,withunitsofStokes).The most commonly used viscosity units for liquids are the milliPascal‐second (mPa‐s) and thecentiStoke(cSt),wherecSt=mPa‐s/,whereindicatesthedensityofthefluidinkg/m3.Dependingontemperature,theviscosityofwaterisnear1mPa‐s;ofhoney,2,000–10,000mPa‐s;andofpeanutbutter,~250,000mPa‐s.


50

Figure7. Concentrations of normal alkanes and of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (i.e., “BTEX”compounds)infreshandweatheredAccessWesternBlend(AWB)bitumen.Notetherapidlossofhydrocarbonsassociated with the gas condensate component of AWB. Figure reprinted from Figure. 4‐9 in the GainfordStudy50includedintheTransMountainapplication.

50WittO’Brien’s,PolarisAppliedSciences,WesternCanadaMarineResponseCorporation(2013)Astudyoffateandbehaviorofdilutedbitumenoilsonmarinewaters,dilbitexperiments—Gainford,Alberta.

Hydrocarbonsaddedwithgascondensate


51

5.1.4 Effectsofweatheringonthephysicalpropertiesofdilutedbitumen

KEYPOINTS:

Diluted bitumen is naturally prone to submergence in fresh andbrackishwaters

Experiments performed to assess how fast the density of dilutedbitumen would increase during an oil spill have seriouslyoverestimatedthetimerequiredforittosubmerge

Underworst‐caseambientconditionsofwarmsummertemperaturesandmoderatewinds,spilleddilutedbitumenmaybegintosubmergeinthesurfacelayeroftheFraserRiverplumeandBurrardInletafterabout24hours following the initial release.Thispossibilitymustbeincludedinoilspillriskassessments

130. Unlikemostnormalcrudeoils,rawbitumenasitresidesinnaturaldeposits,including bitumen from the Alberta oil sands, is inherently susceptible tosubmerging in water, as noted in s. 5.1.3 above. The densities of dilutedbitumen are made considerably less than freshwater by addition of low‐density diluents, typically gas condensate as explained in s. 5.1.3 above, tomeet pipeline shipment requirements. Evaporative loss of added diluentsmaythereforereturnthedilutedbitumentonearthedensityofthebitumencomponent, which may be high enough to submerge in fresh, brackish orevenfull‐strengthseawaterifallthediluentcomponentsarelost.

131. The five studies summarized in Appendix 3 confirm that, in principle,volatilitylossesalonemayincreasethedensityofdilutedbitumenenoughtosubmergeinfreshorbrackishwater.Thesefivestudiesinvolvedmonitoringchangesinphysicalpropertiesandchemicalcompositionofdilutedbitumenin experimental tanks of water under various conditions. Estimating thetime required for evaporative losses to result in neutral buoyancy of thedilutedbitumenremaining involvesconsiderableuncertainty,owingmainlytotheunrealisticallythickoilfilmsusedinfourofthefiveexperiments.Eventhemost realistic study involvedanoil filmnearly three times thicker (i.e.,1.15 mm51vs. 0.4 mm52) than would occur during a real spill of dilutedbitumen that was not enclosed by barriers such as oil booms or naturallyenclosedwaterbodies,apointacknowledgedbytheauthorsoftheGainford

51SL Ross (2012) Meso‐scale weathering of Cold Lake bitumen/condensate blend. SL RossEnvironmentalResearchLtd,#200‐1140MorrisonDrive,Ottawa,ONK2H8S9.

52Stronach2013.


52

Study experiments.53Nonetheless, direct observations of thewater columnindicated that diluted bitumen appeared to attain neutral buoyancywithin48hoursat15C.Hadanunconstrainedoil filmhavinga film thicknessof~0.4mmbeenused in theGainford Study experiments instead of the 1.15mm‐thick oil film, the time required to reach neutral buoyancy may havebeenasbriefas24hours.This isbecauseevaporationrates fromanatural0.4mm‐thick slick are about three times faster than froma1.15mm‐thickslick under identical ambient conditions, so the approach to neutralbuoyancy within 48hours at 15C as observed in the Gainford Studyexperimentswouldhaveoccurredafterabout16hforanatural0.4mmslick.

132. TheTransMountainapplicationassumes that the timerequired fordilutedbitumen to approach neutral buoyancy is accurately estimated by theGainford Study experiments, thereby failing to account for effects of slickthickness on weathering rate. Consequently the application greatlyunderestimates the risk of oil submergence. Accounting for realistic slickthicknessessuggeststhatdilutedbitumencouldreachneutralbuoyancyandhencesubmergeinfreshwaterinaslittleas24hours.

5.1.5 Effectsofweatheringonthechemicalcompositionofdilutedbitumen

KEYPOINTS:

Spilled diluted bitumen loses its volatile components more quicklythannormalcrudeoils,creatinggreaterinhalationandsafetyhazards

Spilled diluted bitumen retains the toxic PAH longer than normalcrudeoils,andaredegradedmainlythroughslowbiodegradationandphoto‐oxidation

133. Because diluted bitumen is essentially a mixture of high‐volatility diluentwith low‐volatility bitumen, the most dramatic changes of the chemicalcompositionofdilutedbitumeninitiallyresultfromevaporativelossesofthediluentcomponents.Thecomponentslostincludethealkaneandmonocyclicaromatic hydrocarbons (including benzene, toluene, ethyl‐benzene andxylenes, or BTEX) that have boiling points less than 200 C, indicated bycirclesinFigure7.Thesecompoundsarelostwithinthefirsthourstodaysofa spill as indicated by the experiments discussed under s. 5.1.4 above. Incontrast, changes in the PAH composition within this timeframe arenegligible,as indicatedbythePAHcompositionofdilutedbitumensamples

53WittO’Brien’s2013.


53

during the Gainford study54(Figure 8). During the Gainford study, thepattern of relative PAH abundances did not change appreciably from freshdiluted bitumen to diluted bitumen after 8 days of exposure to mild andmoderate conditions, although the absolute concentrations did. However,theseabsolutedifferencesinconcentrationreflectimprecisioninthesamplemassmeasurements because the differences are proportionally systematicacrossthecompoundsmeasured.Incontrast,biodegradationtypicallyleadstodifferencesintherelativePAHabundances,thatis,theabundanceofPAHrelative to one another.55These changes are not evident in the GainfordstudysamplesthatwereanalyzedforPAH.

54Ibid.

55PrinceRC,GarrettRM,BareRE,GrossmanMJ,TownsendT,SuflitaJM,LeeK,OwensEH,SergyGA,Braddock JF, Lindstrom JE, Lessard RR (2003) The roles of photooxidation and biodegradation inlong‐termweatheringofcrudeandheavyfueloils.SpillScienceandTechnologyBulletin8:145‐156.


54

Figure8.ConcentrationsofPAHinColdLakeBitumeninitiallyandafter8daysofweatheringundermildandmoderatewindspeedconditions(fromGainfordStudyFigure4‐8).

55

134. Oncecompoundsassociatedwiththegascondensatediluentarelost,furthercomposition changes occur much more slowly, mainly throughbiodegradation and photo‐oxidation. Although natural biodegradation hadalready removedmost of the compounds in the Alberta oil sands bitumenpriortoextraction(sees.5.1.3above),thePAHremainingaresusceptibletofurtherbiodegradation.56TheratethattheseremainingPAHarebiodegradeddependsonnumerousfactors,includingtheavailabilityofmicrobescapableof degrading PAH, oxygen, and inorganic nutrients to support microbialmetabolism and growth, aswell as the temperature, viscosity, and relativesurfaceareaoftheoil.

135. Photo‐oxidationrequiresexposuretooxygenandtostrongsunlight.Photo‐oxidation affects a relatively small proportion of the heavy compoundsassociated with bitumen,57increasing the water solubility of the oxidizedcompounds.

136. As biodegradation and photo‐oxidation proceed, the residual bitumeneventuallyhardensintoanasphalt‐likematerial thathas lowbioavailabilityof any remaining toxic compounds. Conditions that promote extremeweatheringlossesandconsequenthardeningoftheresidualbitumenincludedepositionontheupperreachesofshorelineswhereprolongedexposuretoairandstrongsunlightacceleratesevaporationofvolatileandsemi‐volatilecomponents, and photo‐oxidation of the residual bitumen. In contrast,percolationofdilutedbitumenintohypoxicsubsurfacesedimentscanleadtopreservationwithonlymodestchangesincompositionfordecadesorevenacentury.58

56Ibid.

57IslamA,ChoY,YimUH,ShimWJ,KimYH,KimS(2013)Thecomparisonofnaturallyweatheredoilandartificiallyphoto‐degradedoilatthemolecularlevelbyacombinationofSARAfractionationandFT‐ICRMS.JournalofHazardousMaterials263:404‐411.

58Li2009;Culbertson2008;ShortJW,SpringmanKR,LindebergMR,HollandLG,LarsenML,SloanCA, Khan C, Hodson PV, Rice SD (2008) Semipermeable membrane devices link site‐specificcontaminants toeffects:PARTII–Acomparisonof lingeringExxonValdezoilwithotherpotentialsourcesofCYP1AinducersinPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska.MarineEnvironmentalResearch66:487‐498;PeacockEE,HampsonGR,NelsonRK,XuL,FrysingerGS,GainesRB,FarringtonJW,TrippBW,ReddyCM(2006)The1974spillof theBouchard65oilbarge:Petroleumhydrocarbonspersist inWinsor Cove saltmarsh sediments.Marine PollutionBulletin 54:214‐225; PeacockEE,NelsonRK,SolowAR,WarrenJD,BakerJL,ReddyCM(2005)TheWestFalmouthoilspill:~100Kgofoilfoundtopersist decades later. Environmental Forensics 6:273‐281; Burns KA, Garrity SD, Jorissen D,MacPherson J, Stoelting M, Tierney J, Yelle‐Simmons L (1994) The Galeta oil spill. II. Unexpectedpersistenceofoiltrappedinmangrovesediments.Estuarine,CoastalandShelfScience38:349‐364.


56

5.1.6 Behaviourofdilutedbitumeninreceivingwaters

KEYPOINTS:

Spilled diluted bitumen will follow a similar sequence of changescharacteristicoftypicaloilspills,exceptthatdilutedbitumenismoreprone to submergence, thereby exposing inhabitants of the watercolumntosubmergedoil

Adilutedbitumenspillwouldseriouslythreatenseabirds,shorebirds,marinemammals,andintertidalbiotagenerally

Dilutedbitumenstrandedonshorelineswouldbemostpersistentonarmouredbeaches,marshes, andmudflats, all ofwhich are commonwithinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary

137. Dilutedbitumenspilled intosurfacewatersofBurrard Inletand theFraserRiver estuary will follow the same general sequence of changes typical ofmostoilspill,summarizedins.5.1.1(Figure5).

138. Immediatelyfollowinginitialdischargeanddependingonthevolumespilled,rapidevaporationofthegascondensatecomponentsofdilutedbitumenmaycreate contact and inhalation hazards for wildlife such as seabirds andmarine mammals in the immediate vicinity of the spill. If winds aresufficiently strong to generate breaking waves, diluted bitumen may beentrained into the upperwater column as small oil droplets,making themavailabletosuspension‐feedingfishandinvertebrates.

139. As the more volatile components are lost by evaporation, the increasingdensityof oil that remainson the sea surfacemay cause theoil tobecomeneutrallybuoyantwithrespecttothedensityoftheseasurfaceimmediatelybeneath it, causing the oil to submerge.59Oil submergence would behastenedifinorganicsuspendedparticulatematerial(SPM)entrainedinthewater column adheres to the oil, increasing the density of the oil‐SPMaggregate, especially in the high‐sediment plume of the Fraser Riverdischargeduringspringandsummer(Figure4).60

59Notethatthedensityoftheseasurfacelayerdependsonitssalinity,withfresherwaterbeinglessdense.

60KhelifaAM,FingasM,BrownC(2008)EffectsofDispersantsonOil‐SPMAggregationandFateinUS Coastal Waters. Final Report to the Coastal Research Response Center, University of NewHampshire,July2008,38pp.


57

140. Oilremainingontheseasurfacewillposeacontacthazardforseabirdsandmarinemammals. Eventually, oil on the sea surfacewill either become tarballs that submerge in thewater column, or impinge on shorelineswheresomeofitwillremain,andsomeofitwillbere‐floatedbacktothesea.

141. If oil accumulateson shoreline sedimentsand is subsequently re‐floated, itwillbemuchmoresusceptibletosubmergenceorsinkingtotheseafloor.

142. The effects, persistence, and fate of oil impinging on shorelines dependstrongly on the shorelinemorphology and the environmental conditions atthetimeofoilstranding.

143. Oil is least persistent on bedrock outcrops and rocky headlands becausetheseproviderelativelylittlesurfaceareaforadhesionandoftenareexposedtomoreenergeticwaveconditionsthatpromoteoilremoval.

144. Oil stranded on rocky armoured beaches may be quite persistent if itpenetrates beneath the armour layer and becomes trapped by capillaryforcesinfiner‐grainedunderlyingsediments,especially if theoilpenetratesintohypoxicsedimentswherebiodegradationisimpeded.

145. Penetrationofoilstrandedonthesurfaceofsandybeachesislimitedbylowhydraulic permeability, although oil may subsequently becomemixed intothesubsurfacebysufficientlyenergeticwaveaction.Whenthisoccursitmaycreate a long‐term reservoir of stranded oil that sporadically re‐surfaces,which may then be transported to the immediately adjacent subtidalseafloor. Once re‐located to the subtidal seafloor, disturbance from waveactionisconsiderablyreduced,andtheoilmaypersistforyearstodecadesifithascongealedintoacompactmass.

146. Penetrationofoilstrandedonmudflatsmayappeartobemorelimitedthanonsandybeachesbecause thehydraulicpermeabilityofmud iseven lowerthan sand. However, mudflats often contain holes created by burrowingorganismssuchasclams,wormsandcrabs,andoilmayreadilypercolateintothese holes and then become trapped by adhesive forces. Oil in theseburrowscanpersistforyearstodecadesandpossiblyacentury.61

147. Finally,oilstrandedonoralongmarinemarshesorintertidaleelgrassbedsmay also persist for years to decades if the oil associates with decayingvegetative material that creates persistent hypoxic conditions impedingbiodegradationoftheoil.

61Li2009;Culbertson2008;Short2008;Peacock2006;Peacock2005;Burns1994.


58

148. Insummary,aspillofdilutedbitumeninBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary is far more likely to submerge or sink, and could be retained onshorelines formuch longer than isanticipatedby theTransMountainERA.Contaminationofthewatercolumnbysubmergedoilopensthepossibilityofexposing a much wider diversity of organisms to oil, leading to multipledamagepathwaysthatarenotnormallysignificantfollowingtypicalcrudeoilspills.

5.2 Effectsofdilutedbitumendischarged intoBurrard InletortheFraserRiverestuary

149. Diluted bitumen accidentally discharged into Burrard Inlet or the FraserRiverestuarywouldcontaminateoneofthemostbiologicallyproductiveandecologically important estuaries in theworld. This section summarizes thebiological importance of the Fraser River estuary, the associations ofcommunities of intertidal organisms on different kinds of beaches in theSalishSea,thevariouswaysdilutedbitumencanbecomestrandedonthesebeaches, the factors that determine oil persistence once stranded, and thevarious ways that diluted bitumen can adversely affect the organismsinhabiting these shorelines. The interaction of all these factors serves toillustrate the complexity of the marine ecosystem in contrast with theoversimplificationoftheTransMountainERA.

5.2.1 BiologicalproductivityoftheFraserRiverestuary

KEYPOINTS:

The Fraser River estuary is the most productive, diverse andimportantestuaryonthePacificcoastofNorthAmerica

EcologicalconnectionsoftheFraserRiverestuaryextendovertensofthousands of kilometers through movements of migratory birds,mammalsandfish,especiallysalmon.

The Fraser River estuary is recognized internationally andhemisphericallyasanareaofgreatecologicalimportance62

150. The Fraser River is the defining element of the adjoining estuarine andmarineecosystem,withoutwhichtheSalishSeawouldbejustanotherinlandpassage waterway. The high freshwater discharge from the river during

62WesternHemisphereShorebirdReserveNetwork(www.whsrn.org/whsrn‐sites).


59

spring floods the surface of the estuary over awide area.63This freshenedsurface layer stabilizes the water column, a necessary preconditiontriggeringtheonsetofthegrowingseasonforthemarinephytoplanktonthatform the foundation for themarine foodweb. The river discharge therebyprolongs the overall growing season substantially. In its absence, thenecessarywatercolumnstabilizationwouldhavetoawaittheslowerprocessof thermally‐driven stratification from the increased insolation duringspring.

151. Thespringfreshetalsobringshundredsofmillionsofout‐migratingjuvenilesalmon and other anadromous fishes, which are prey for resident andmigratoryseabirds.

152. Duringfall,thespawningmigrationbringstensofmillionsofsalmon,mainlysockeye(Oncorhynchusnerka)andpinksalmon(O.gorbuscha),andincludingchinooksalmon(O.tshawytscha),throughtheSalishSeaandestuaryastheyreturntotheFraserRiverwatershedtributariestospawn64.Thesespeciesofsalmon provide crucial forage food for numerous marine mammals. Thedecomposingcarcassesofpost‐spawnsalmon,augmentedby theurineandfecal excretions of predators that prey on the returning adults provide asubstantialsubsidyofmarine‐derivednitrogenandphosphorusnutrientstothe entire watershed.65 These nutrients ultimately contribute to the highproductivityoftheFraserRiverestuaryitselfastheyareeventuallywashedoutofthewatershed.

153. The exceptionally high abundances and diversity of waterfowl in BurrardInlet and the Fraser River estuary have led to national, international andhemispheric recognition of their ecological importance. The Fraser Riverestuary is recognized as one of six sites of hemispheric importance formigratory sea‐ and shorebirds along the Pacific coast of North America,basedonuseof thishabitatbymore than500,000birdsandbymore than30% of the global population of at least one bird species (snow goose).66Burrard Inlet and theFraserRiver estuary are recognized as an ImportantBird Areas by Bird Life International, Bird Studies Canada, and NatureCanada.67The Fraser River estuary is also designated as a wetland of

63Thomson1981.

64PacificSalmonCommission2009.

65Larkin GA, Slaney PA (2011) Implications of trends in marine‐derived nutrient influx to southcoastalBritishColumbiasalmonidproduction.Fisheries22:16‐24.

66SeeWesternHemisphereShorebirdReserveNetwork(www.whsrn.org/whsrn‐sites).

67Seehttp://www.ibacanada.ca.


60

international importance to birds and other species as site 243 under theRamsarConvention.68Ramsarsite243includes18,216haofwetlandsfromthe lowest low tideof the year to5–7mabove sea level at SturgeonBankWildlifeManagementArea, SouthArmMarshesWildlifeManagementArea,Alaksen National Wildlife Area (which includes the George C. ReifelMigratory Bird Sanctuary), and Serpentine Wildlife Management Area(Figure1).

5.2.2 Physicalhabitatassociationsofintertidalspecies

KEYPOINTS:

Biological assemblages on shorelines typically occupy horizontalbandsthatmayextendacrossshorelinetypes

The biomass and productivity of intertidal communities typicallyincreaseswithlowertidalelevations

Estuarine, marsh, and lagoon habitats – often associated withextensive mudflats at lower tidal elevations – account for ~19% ofBurrard Inlet/Fraser River estuary shorelines and are the mostproductiveandecologicallyimportantshorelinetypes

154. Becausespilledoilproductscanlingeronshorelinesfordecades,someofthemost long‐lasting effects of oil spills may occur in these habitats. Thebiological assemblages found between the highest and lowest tides varyconsiderablydependingonwhethertheshorelineiscomposedofbedrockoraconglomerate,theparticlesizedistributionifaconglomerate,thesteepness(orgradient)oftheshoreline,andtheexposuretowavescouring.Ingeneral,biological diversity and biomass decrease with higher tidal elevationsbecause plants and animals have less time to acquire marine‐derivednutrients and food as their submergence period declines. At lower tidalelevations,theoccurrenceofsurface‐dwellingspeciesoftendeclinesabruptlybecause of greater exposure tomarinepredators. These two factors createcharacteristic bands of animal and plant assemblages on shorelines,sometimescalled“biobands”or“biozones.”Thesezonesoftenextendacrossdifferent shoreline types and gradients, and the dominant species withinthesezonesprovidehabitatforotherspeciesthatareassociatedwiththem.

68TheRamsarConventionisaninternationaltreatyformallyknownastheConventiononWetlandsofInternationalImportance,especiallyasWaterfowlHabitat.Canadaaccededtothistreatyin1981.


61

155. Patternsofbiobandingon shorelinesare similar throughout theSalishSea,including Burrard Inlet and the Fraser River estuary. Proceeding from theextreme upper limit of the intertidal to the extreme lower limit, themostprominent biobands on most shorelines are zones of salt‐tolerantherbaceousvegetationonsoilsorencrusting lichensonbare rocksurfaces,barnaclesandrockweed,gradingintogreenalgaeandbluemussels,thenredalgae and surfgrass, and finally kelps and eelgrass that remain submergedmost of the time in the lowest part of the intertidal.69The biologicalassemblagesprovide cover formanyother species includingmarine snails,and the larval and juvenile life stagesof ahostofother speciesof fishandcrabs.

156. Within stable conglomerate shorelines such as armoured beaches andmudflats, rich communities of invertebrates including worms, clams andcrabs live beneath the surface of the beach at densities that generallyincreasewith lower tidalelevation.Similarspeciesoften inhabit lessstablesandybeaches,butatgenerallylowerdiversityandbiomass.

157. Man‐made shorelines are themost commonalong theBurrard Inlet‐FraserRiver estuary, accounting for 34% of the total shoreline length (Figure 9).These are predominantly hardened structures such as docks, piers, jettiesetc. that are very similar to natural rocky habitats from the perspective ofintertidalbiota,andbiozonesmaybeespeciallystrikingonthesestructures.Thenextmost commonshoreline typesaresandormixedsandandgravel(22%), estuary, marsh or lagoon, usually associated with an extensivemudflat in the lower intertidal (19%), mixed rock/gravel/sand, mostlyarmoured70(11%),androckcliffs(9%).Mostoftheestuary,marshorlagoonhabitatislocatedwithinBoundaryBay,SturgeonBanks,WesthamIslandandjustsouthofWesthamIsland.Mostof therockcliffhabitat iswithinIndianArm in Burrard Inlet. The sandy and man‐made shorelines are scatteredthroughoutthearea.

69Coastal&OceanResourcesInc.,ArchipelagoMarineResearchLtd.(2005)ShoreZoneMappingDataSummary, Gulf Islands National Park Reserve. Prepared for Parks Canada, CORI project 04‐35.Coastal&OceansResourcesInc.,214‐9865WestSaanichRoad,Sidney,BritishColumbiaV8M5Y8.

70An “armoured” beach is one that is covered by a surface layer of relatively large cobbles toboulders,beneathwhicharepoorly‐sorted,finer‐grainedsedimentsthatareprotectedfromerosionbythearmourlayer.

FateaFraser5.0FaRiver

andEffectofOrRiverEstuarate,BehaviourEstuaryand

Figure9.SArminBurthearea.

OilSpillsfromryurandEffectsdtheSalishSe

horelinetyperrardInlet.Th

theTransMou

sofDilutedBea

sinBurrardIhesandyandm

untainExpans

BitumenDisch

62

nletandtheFman‐madesh

sionProjectin

hargedintoB

FraserRivereorelinesares

nBurrardInle

BurrardInlet

stuarywithinscatteredthro

etandthe

t,theFraser

Indianughout


63

5.2.3 Effectsofweathereddilutedbitumenonintertidalspecies

KEYPOINTS:

Heavy oiling on armoured beaches, mudflats and marshes in theupper intertidalcancreate long‐termoilexposurehazardsforplantsandanimals,includingshorebirds

Mammals and shorebirds are especially sensitive to physical contactwithoil,whileearlylifestagesoffishandtranslucentlifestagesofanyspeciesareespeciallysensitivetoPAH

Biological communities on sand and gravel beaches would usuallyrecovermorequicklyfromoilingthanonotherbeachtypes

158. Spilled diluted bitumen can affect intertidal biota through three differentmodesofexposure:physicalsmothering,ingestionofdispersedoildroplets,andabsorptionoftoxiccompoundsdissolvedfromoilintothewatercolumn.

159. Physicalsmotheringcanleadtosuffocationorstarvation.

160. Ingestion of oil droplets by intertidal suspension‐feeding organismsincludingclams,mussels,barnaclesaswellasbyfishandotherspeciescanreducegrowthorinseverecasescausedeath.

161. Absorptionoftoxiccompoundsdissolvedfromoilintothewatercolumncancause death from narcosis, embryotoxicity to early life stages of fish, andphoto‐enhancedtoxicitytotranslucentorganisms(whichmayincludeearlylifestagesoffishandotherorganisms).

162. Accumulation of oil‐derived compounds by organisms, whether throughphysical contact, ingestion of oil or absorption of compounds that dissolveintothewatercolumncantainttissuesatverylowconcentrations(partspertrillion or less), rendering plants and animals collected during subsistenceharvestsunpalatable.

163. Effects from these modes of exposure and toxic action depend on when,whereandhowdilutedbitumenimpingesonshorelines,thetypeofshorelineoiled, and the biota inhabiting the shoreline. The following subsectionsdiscusstheseinteractionsinmoredetail.

5.2.3.1 Bedrockandhardenedshorelines

164. Bedrock and other hardened shorelines such as piers, jetties,wharves etc.providespace fordiversebiological communities.Theseshorelinesaccount


64

about35%of shoreline in theFraserRiverDeltaandBurrard Inlet (Figure9).

165. Sincebothdilutedbitumenandbiotaarelimitedtothesurfaceofhardenedsubstrates,dilutedbitumenpenetrationandeffectsonanimalsandplantsarelimitedtothesubstratesurface.

166. By the time diluted bitumen impinges on shorelines, its viscosity andadhesion are likely much greater than after initial discharge to receivingwaters, making the diluted bitumen very likely to adhere to rock andconcrete,andtotheplantandanimalcommunities there.Someplantssuchasrockweeds(Fucussp.)andshellfishsuchasbaymussels(Mytilustrossulus)canformdense,interconnectedassemblagesthatprovidecoverandsurfaceareafornumerousotherspeciessuchasmarinesnailsandworms.These3‐dimensional structural networks also act as a kind of “sponge” for dilutedbitumen, such that viscous diluted bitumen that penetrates into thesenetworksmaybeverydifficulttodislodgejustbytidalpumpingormoderatewaveaction.Itcanpersistthereforweeksormonths.71

167. If sensitive species or life stages become associated with these dilutedbitumen‐contaminated structural networks, the trapped diluted bitumenmayprovideapersistentsourceofcontaminationbyslowlyreleasingPAHtothe interstitial water of the networks, exposing eggs, larvae and othertranslucentspeciestoPAHforprotractedperiods.Thistrappedoilcanalsopose a contact hazard for shorebirds that prey on intertidal snails,worms,and other animals that inhabit the interstices of Fucus and mussel beds.Moreover,shorelineremediationeffortstoremovedilutedbitumentrappedby these biological communitiesmay inflict additional damage to residentplantsandanimals,whichshouldbeincludedasatoxiceffectofaspill.

168. Intertidal plants and animals inhabiting bedrock or artificially hardenedshorelines are vulnerable to physical smothering by oil. In extreme casessmothering may prevent respiration of plants and animals causing death.Lessseveresmotheringmaystill impedeorprevent feedingandmovementofmobilegrazersandpredatorssuchasmarinesnailsandintertidalfishthatarestrandedinoiledrockyhabitatssuchastidepoolsduringlowtides.

169. Suspension‐feeding intertidal organisms including mussels, barnacles, andmany clams often inhabit rocky shorelines and can ingest small dilutedbitumendropletsentrained in thewater columnduring tidal submergence.

71CarlsMG, BabcockMM,Harris PM, Irvine GV, Cusick JA, Rice SD (2001) Persistence of oiling inmusselbedsaftertheExxonValdezoilspill.MarineEnvironmentalResearch51:167–190.


65

These organisms can also absorb oil‐derived compounds that dissolve intothe water column. Oil compounds accumulated by these organisms canimpairtheirgrowth72andincreasetheirsusceptibilitytodisease.73Also,theaccumulated body burden of oil by these organisms can be transferred totheirpredators,includingmarineshorebirds.Accumulationofeventracesofoilcantaintshellfishandotherbiotaharvestedforsubsistenceconsumptionbyhumans,renderingthemunpalatable.

170. Earlylifestagesoffish,especiallyoffishthatspawnandpassthroughtheirinitial developmental stages in the intertidal, are also vulnerable toembryotoxicity.Embryotoxicity involvesdisruptionof thenormal sequenceofembryologicaldevelopmentaftereggfertilization,andiscausedby3‐and4‐ringed PAH,74especially alkyl‐substituted PAH.75Fish embryos are mostvulnerableimmediatelyafterhatching,76andthethresholdforonsetoftheseeffectsisinthemid‐partspertrillion(i.e.,ng/L).77

171. Translucent organisms are vulnerable to photo‐enhanced toxicity. Photo‐enhanced toxicity occurswhen organisms accumulate certain PAH in theirtissues, either by direct absorption from contaminatedwater inwhich thePAH are dissolved or by ingestion of oil, and are then exposed to directsunlight. Certain PAH, when incorporated within translucent cells, canchannel the energy in the ultraviolet (UV) component of sunlight intomolecularoxygen. Thismakestheoxygenmuchmorereactive.These“hot”

72WiddowsJ,DonkinP,BrinsleyMD,EvansSV,SalkeldPN,FranklinA,LawRJ,WaldockMJ(1995)Scope for growth and contaminant levels in North Sea mussels Mytilus edulis. Marine EcologyProgressSeries127:131‐148;LuquetP, Cravedi JP,Tulliez J,BoriesG (1984)Growth reduction introut induced by naphthenic and isoprenoid hydrocarbons (dodecycyclohexane and pristane).EcotoxicologyandEnvironmentalSafety8:219‐226.

73KennedyCJ,FarrellAP(2008)ImmunologicalalterationsinjuvenilePacificherring,Clupeapallasi,exposedtoaqueoushydrocarbonsderivedfromcrudeoil.EnvironmentalPollution153:638–648.

74Incardona JP, Collier TK, Scholz NL (2004) Defects in cardiac function precede morphologicalabnormalitiesinfishembryosexposedtopolycyclicaromatichydrocarbons.Toxicologyandappliedpharmacology196:191‐2005.

75Lin H, Morandi GD, Brown RS, Snieckus V, Tantanen T, Jorgensen KB, Hodson PV (2015)Quantitative structure‐activity relationships for chronic toxicity of alkyl‐chrysenes and alkyl‐benz[a]anthracenestoJapanesemedakaembryos(Oryziaslatipes).AquaticToxicology150:109‐118.

76BrinkworthL,HodsonP,TabashS,LeeP (2003)CYP1A inductionandblueSACdisease inearlydevelopmental stages of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) exposed to retene. Journal ofToxicologyandEnvironmentalHealth,PartA66:627‐646.

77Ibid.;CarlsMG,MartyGD,HoseJE(2002)SynthesisofthetoxicologicalimpactsoftheExxonValdezoilspillonPacificherring(Clupeapallasi)inPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska,USA.CanadianJournalofFisheriesandAquaticSciences59:153‐172.


66

oxygen molecules can then oxidize proteins, DNA, and other subcellularcomponents, therebycausingextensivedamagewithincells.Meanwhile thePAH that channels the UV energy usually remains unaltered, capable ofchannellingmoreenergytomoreoxygenmolecules.Thiscausescellstoburnfromtheinsideout.ThiseffectalsooccursatverylowPAHthresholds,ontheorder of one part per billion (ug/L) or less,78and played a major part indamaging Pacific herring eggs and larvae developing on or near oiledbeachesfollowingtheCoscoBusanoilspillinSanFranciscoBay,California.79

5.2.3.2 Armouredbeaches

172. The sediment structure of armoured beaches is especially conducive totrapping and retaining diluted bitumen and other spilled petroleumproducts.Armouredbeachesconsistofasurfacelayerofcobblestobouldersthatprotect finer‐grainedsedimentsbeneath them fromerodingaway,andaccount for about 10% of Fraser River delta and Burrard Inlet shorelines(Figure9).Underlyingsedimentsusuallyconsistofanassortmentofsmallergrain size particles, ranging from mud‐sized particles through pebbles,embeddedcobbles,andboulders.Underlyingsedimentshaverelativelyhighhydraulic conductivity, meaning water can flow through them relativelyeasily. During falling tides the interstices of these sediments lose waterrelativelyquickly, especiallyas the steepnessof thebeach increases.Theseconditionssetthestagefortrappingdilutedbitumenthatinitiallystrandsonthebeachsurfaceduringanout‐goingtide.

173. Diluted bitumen coating the surface of armoured beaches would have thesame effects on surface biota as it does on biota inhabiting bedrock andhardenedshorelines,summarizedins.5.2.3.1.Inaddition,thefiner‐grainedsediments beneath the armour layer usually provide habitat for often richanddiversecommunitiesofinfauna,whichincludeburrowingclams,marineworms,andsmallcrabs.Theyalsoshelterthelarvalandjuvenilelifestagesofa host of developing animals includingmany fish species. Diluted bitumen

78DuesterlohS,ShortJ,BarronMG(2002)PhotoenhancedtoxicityofweatheredAlaskaNorthSlopecrude oil to two species of marine calanoid zooplankton. Environmental Science and Technology36:3953‐3959; Newsted JL, Geisy JP (1987) Predictive models for photoinduced acute toxicity ofpolycyclicaromatichydrocarbonstoDaphniamagna,strauss(cladocera,crustacea).EnvironmentalToxicologyandChemistry6:445‐461.

79IncardonaJP,YlitaloG,MyersM,ScholzN,CollierT,VinesC,GriffinF,SmithE,CherrG(2011)The2007CoscoBusanoilspill:FieldandlaboratoryassessmentoftoxicinjurytoPacificherringembryosand larvae in the San Francisco estuary. Cosco Busan oil spill Final Report, September 2011.Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic andAtmosphericAdministration,2725MontlakeBoulevardEast,Seattle,Washington98112.


67

sequestered in the rocky interstices in sediment layers beneath thearmouring layer therefore provide a long‐term source of exposure to toxiccompounds such as PAH that slowly dissolve from the trapped dilutedbitumen. Accumulation of these dissolved compounds may causeembryotoxiceffects,whileingestionofdilutedbitumenmayimpairgrowth80andpossiblycausedeath,andphysicalcontactwiththedilutedbitumenmayimpairmobility.

5.2.3.3 Sandandgravelbeaches

174. These shorelines account for about16%of FraserRiverdelta andBurrardInletshorelines(Figure9).Thepersistenceofspilledoilproductsonsandorgravelbeachesistypicallylowbecausethesedimentparticlesizesaresmallenoughthatwaveactioncanchurntheuppersedimentlayer.Thischurningactionserves tore‐exposeoil thatseepsbeneath thesurface initially to thesurface where abrasion can scour oil films from the sediments. As witharmouredbeaches(sees.5.2.3.2),initialpenetrationofdilutedbitumenintosandorgravelbeachesdependsmainlyontheinteractionofdilutedbitumenviscosityandthehydraulicconductivityofthesubstrate. Dependingonthedegreeofexposuretowaveaction,oilmaybelargelyremovedfromsandorgravelbeacheswithin2–3years.81

175. The lower stabilityof sandandgravelbeachesmakes them less hospitableformostintertidaldwellingorganisms.Thesesubstratesmaycontaindiversecommunities ofmeiofauna,which are barely visible invertebrates that livewithin the sandandgravel and feedonmicro‐organisms there. Larger andmoremobile burrowing predators that prey on themeiofauna and also onplankton during higher tide levels, such as clams, crabs, and worms mayinhabit these substrates and can accumulate oil by ingestion or physicalcontact.Macroscopicplantsareusuallyrareorabsent,althoughsurfacefilmsofalgaemaycontributetosupportingmeiofaunaandothergrazinganimalssuchasworms.However,theresidentbiotaisadaptedtothedynamicnatureof these habitats, and hence usually recovers quickly to disturbancesincludingephemeraloilcontamination.

5.2.3.4 Mudflats

176. Mudflats account for about 6% of Fraser River delta and Burrard Inletshorelineslengthsbutoccupyconsiderableintertidalsurfacearea(Figure9).

80Luquet(1984).

81Yim2012.


68

Mudflats are composed of very small sediment grain sizes, most of whichtypicallyrangefromlessthan1µmto200µm.Comparedwithsandorgravelbeaches, these small grain sizesmake for greater beach stability,with lessinterstitialspaceamongthesedimentgrains.

177. Theeffectsofdilutedbitumenstrandedonthesurfaceofmudflatsaresimilarto those on the other beach types discussed above in ss. 5.2.3.1–5.2.3.3.Although the surfaces of mudflats may be inhabited by relatively lowdensities of mussels, clams, snails, and algal films, most of the animalbiomass lives beneath the surface in burrows. These burrows provideconduits for oil penetrationdeeperbeneath the surfaceof thesebeaches.82Nonetheless this habitat can be deceptively productive, and may beespecially important as foraging habitat for resident and migratoryshorebirds that feed on surface algal films or prey on inhabitants of thesubsurfaceanimalcommunity.

5.2.3.5 Saltmarshes

178. The dense vegetation characteristic of saltwater marshes in the upperintertidal account for about 16% of Fraser River delta and Burrard Inletshorelines (Figure 9), and provide another matrix that can trap dilutedbitumen for prolonged periods.83Spilled diluted bitumen driven ashore bywind into these marshes could associate with the vegetative matrix, bothaliveanddead.Socouldoil fromapipelinerupture thatdischargesdilutedbitumenintotheFraserRiverupstreamoftheFraserRiverestuary.Decayingvegetative mats often have high biological oxygen demands that lead tohypoxic conditions near the interface of the vegetation and the underlyingsoils. Diluted bitumen that percolates downward into hypoxic zones canpersist for years to decades as a result of the slow rate of microbialdegradationwhichoccursthere.

179. Oil‐contaminated salt marshes create potentially long‐term sources of oilcontacthazardtobirds,mammals,andinvertebratesthatinhabit,traverseorotherwisedependonthishabitat.Anycontactwithoilbybirdsormammalscanhaveseriousandoften lethalresults.Marshoilingmayalsodepletetheinsect and spider communities, reducing prey available for insectivorous

82Peacock2006,Burns1994.

83Yim2012,Peacock2006,Burns1994.


69

birds.84Heavy marsh oiling may kill the marsh vegetation, exposing theunderlyingsedimentstoacceleratingerosionleadingtolossofmarshland.

180. Shoreline oiling following amajor oil spill would inflict serious injuries tobiological communities inhabiting them in the short term, and lingeringeffectscouldpersistfordecadestoacenturyonporousbeaches(gravel,sandandmud) and in intertidalmarshes if oil becomes associatedwithhypoxicsedimentsoraccumulationsoforganicmatter.Theselingeringreservoirsofoil pose long‐term threats to intertidal organisms, predators that consumethem,andtomarsh‐dwellingbirdsandmammals.

5.3 Effectsofdilutedbitumenonspecies inhabiting themarinewatersurface

181. This section summarizes the extreme vulnerability of seabirds, shorebirds,and marine mammals to adverse effects of oil exposure, which are notadequatelyaddressedintheTransMountainapplication.

5.3.1 Sea‐andshorebirds

KEYPOINTS:

Sea‐andshorebirdsareextremelysensitivetooilexposures,andthehigh productivity and habitat diversity of the Fraser River estuaryplaceshighnumbersofsea‐andshorebirdsatrisk

Comparisonwithotherspillssuggestsamajor(16,000m3)spillnearthe Fraser River estuary could kill more than 100,000 sea‐ andshorebirds

Large‐scale mortality of sea‐ and shorebirds could have cascadingeffects that could penetrate deeply into the food web of the FraserRiverestuary,includingBurrardInlet

182. Seabirds and shorebirds are particularly sensitive to both internal andexternal oil exposure,85and their foraging habits, preening behaviour andresting requirements lead to frequent contact with surface oil. Petroleum

84Pennings SC, McCall BD, Hooper‐Bui L (2014) Effects of oil spills on terrestrial arthropods incoastalwetlands.Bioscience64:789‐795.

85Leighton FA (1993) The toxicity of petroleum oils to birds. Environmental Reviews 1:92-103.


70

exposure alters feather microstructure,86compressing plumage so that itloses its buoyancy, insulating function, and flight capability.87Physiologicalhealth of birds is further impaired by oil‐induced diseases,88includinghemolytic anemia, ulcerations, cachexia, and aspergillosis. 89 Birdscontaminated at sea thereby succumb from drowning, hypothermia,starvation,ordehydration.Incold‐waterssuchastheSalishSeaitisusuallyassumed that any contact with surface oil will be mortal or will at leastincreasemorbidity.90Narcosis from inhalationofhydrocarbon fumesaboveoilslicksmayalsocause injury,althoughlossofconsciousnessaboveanoilslickwouldoftenresultindirectoilingfollowinglossofflightcapability,andthesubsequentoilingwouldconfound inhalationas theattributedcauseofdeath. Whereas proximate exposure, cause‐of‐death, and pathologies forindividualbirdscanbedirectlyexamined,91population‐leveleffectsmustbeapproximatedindirectly.92

183. Marineoilspillsestablisheffectivekillingzonesforseabirdsandshorebirdswhenoilbecomesstrandedonintertidalreachesofbeaches.Thenumbersofbirds killed by contact with floating or stranded oil depends on the arealdensityofbirds(i.e.,thenumberofbirdsperunitareaintheregion),therate

86Jenssen BM (1994) Review article: effects of oil pollution, chemically treated oil, and cleaning on thermal balance of birds. Environmental Pollution 86:207-215; O’Hara PD, Morandin LA (2010) Effects of sheens associated with offshore oil and gas development on the feather microstructure of pelagic seabirds. Marine Pollution Bulletin 60:672-678.

87Leighton 1993.

88Briggs KT, Yoshida SH, Gershwin ME (1996) The influence of petrochemicals and stress on the immune system of seabirds. Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology 23:145-155.

89Jauniaux T, Brosens L, Coignoul F (1997) Lesions observed on stranded seabirds along the Belgian coast from 1992-1995. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 54:714-717; Balseiro A, Espi A, Marquez I, Perez V, Ferraras MC, Garcia Marin JF, Prieto JM (2005) Pathological features in marine birds affected by the Prestige’s oil spill in the north of Spain. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 41:371-378.

90Page 1990: Carter 2003; Castege 2007; Munilla 2011.

91Yamato O, Goto I, Maede Y(1996) Hemolytic anemia in wild seaducks caused by marine oil pollution. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 32:381-384; Balseiro (2005).

92Wilhelm SI, Robertson GJ, Ryan PC, Schneider DC (2007) Comparing an estimate of seabirds at risk to a mortality estimate from the November 2004 Terra Nova FPSO oil spill. Marine Pollution Bulletin 54:537-544; Fifield DA, Baker KD, Byrne R, Robertson GJ et al (2009) Modelling seabird oil spill mortality using flight and swim behaviour. Environmental Studies Research Funds Report 186, Canadian Wildlife Service, Dartmouh, Nova Scotia; Haney JC, Geiger HA, Short JW (2014a)Acute bird mortality from the Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill. I. Exposure probability estimates for offshore Gulf of Mexico. Marine Ecology Progress Series 513:225‐237; Haney JC, GeigerHJ, Short JW (2014b) BirdmortalityfromtheDeepwaterHorizonoilspill.II.CarcasssamplingandexposureprobabilityinthecoastalGulfofMexico.MarineEcologyProgressSeries513:239‐252.


71

atwhichkilledbirdsarereplacedthroughinfluxfromthesurroundingareaor throughmigratorymovements, therateatwhichnewbirdsareexposedbecauseofoilslickmovement,andtheproportionofexposedbirdsthatdieasaresultofcontactwithoil.93

184. ThecombinationofhighlyproductiveanddiverseestuarinehabitatswithinBurrard Inlet and the Fraser River estuary place extraordinarily highnumbers of waterfowl at risk from oil spills. The Salish Sea hosts 72 birdspeciesthatarehighlydependentonintertidalormarinehabitatandmarine‐derived prey.94Many of these bird species overwinter inBurrard Inlet andtheFraserRiverEstuarybecauseoftherelativelymildclimateandabundantfood supply. Burrard Inlet and the FraserRiver estuary are crucial stagingareasonthePacificflyway,providingfeedingandroostingsitesfornearly1million shorebirds and about 250,000migrating and wintering waterfowl,along with hundreds of thousands of other year‐round resident sea‐ andshorebirds.95Dailywaterfowl counts of 100,000 are often foundduring fallandearlywinterwithinBoundaryBay,withsimilarnumbersassociatedwithSturgeon Bank.96Seventeen of the overwintering or migratory waterfowlspecies residing in Burrard Inlet and the Fraser River estuary comprise atleast1%of their globalpopulations, rangingashighas30% in the caseofsnowgeese.97

185. Tsleil‐WaututhandtheCityofVancouverretainedNukaResearchtoprovideanexpertreporton,amongotherthings,thesizeofareasonableworst‐caseoilspillresultingfrommarineshippingactivitiesassociatedwiththeProject.NukaResearchconcludedthatareleaseof16,000m3ofdilutedbitumenisareasonable worst‐case oil spill resulting from project‐related marineshippingactivities.

186. A largedilutedbitumen spill near the FraserRiver estuary could plausiblyresultinamajor(i.e.,>100,000)birdmortalityevent.Forexample,releaseof16,000m3ofdilutedbitumencouldcreatea0.4mmthickoilslickcoveringabout40km2(or4,000ha)largeenoughtocompletelycoverthemudflatsofSturgeon Bank and Westham Island combined, which might be inhabiteddailybymore than100,000sea‐andshorebirdsduring fall throughspring.

93Haney2014a&b.

94Gaydos JK,PearsonSF(2011)Birdsandmammals thatdependon theSalishSea:Acompilation.NorthwesternNaturalist92:79–94.

95Merkens2012.

96Ibid.

97Ibid.


72

Giventhatanycontactwithoil isusually lethal forwaterfowl incold‐waterseas,waterfowlmortalities could easily exceed100,000, especially if anoilslickpersistsatseaoronmudflatsformorethanafewdaysduringthefallorspring bird migrations. These migrations renew the supply of birds thatcould be exposed to lingering oil, thereby substantially increasing thenumberofbirdssusceptibletoexposure.

187. Birdmortalitiesof100,000ormorewouldrankwithinthetoptencausedbyoilspillsworld‐wide.98

188. Datafromthe2010DeepwaterHorizonblowoutintheGulfofMexicosuggestthat large‐scalemortalities of seabirds caused by an oil spillmight lead toseriousperturbationofthemarinefoodwebthroughtrophiccascadeeffects.RecruitmentofGulfmenhaden(Brevootiapatronus),themajorforagefishinthe region,was about 1.6‐times greater than recruitment during any prioryearofthe35‐yearrecord.99Thishighrecruitmentoccurreddespitebelow‐average spawning stock biomass, 100 and unfavourable offshore windsaugmented unusually high discharges of the Mississippi and AtchafalayaRiversduringwinterandspring101thattogetherimpededonshoretransportof larvalmenhaden from their offshore spawning grounds to inshore baysand estuaries necessary for rearing.102 However, larval menhaden thatmanagedtoreachtheinshorebaysandestuariesfacedsubstantiallyreducedpredation by seabirds. TheDeepwaterHorizon blowout killed hundreds ofthousandsandpossiblyamillioncoastalseabirds,103mostofwhichpreyonjuvenile menhaden. The higher survival of juveniles readily explains theabruptincreaseinthemenhadenpopulation.Whileunusuallynumerous,thefat content of these juveniles declined substantially below normal as they

98SeeHaney2014a.

99SchuellerA,SmithJ,VanderKooyS,eds(2013)Southeastdata,assessment,andreview32AGulfofMexicomenhadenassessmentreport. GulfStatesMarineFisheriesCommission,2404GovernmentSt.,OceanSpringsMS39564.399p.

100Ibid.

101HuangW‐J,CaiW‐J,CastelaoRM,WanyY,LohrenzSE(2013)Effectsofawind‐drivencross‐shelflarge river plume on biological production and CO2 uptake on the Gulf of Mexico during spring.LimnologyandOceanography58:1721‐1735.

102Deegan LA (1990) Effects of estuarine environmental conditions on population dynamics ofyoung‐of‐the‐yeargulfmenhaden.MarineEcologyProgressSeries68:195‐205.

103Haney2014a&b.


73

maturedin2011and2012,104suggestingthesefishbecameundernourishedbecausetherewasinsufficientphyto‐andzooplanktonfoodavailableastheygrew. The abnormally low fat content of the menhaden reduced theirnutritive value to the marine mammals, piscivorous fish, and remainingseabirds that feed on them. In effect, it turned the starvingmenhaden into“junk food” for their predators. Also, the abnormally high population ofstarving menhaden probably increased their removal of plankton fromcoastalmarinewaters,includingzooplanktoncomprisingthelarvalstagesofother species such as shrimps, crabs, oysters, and other fish that areimportantbothfortheecosystemandforcommercialharvests.Thoseeffectsareanexampleofatrophiccascade.IntheGulfofMexicothistrophiccascademay have caused population‐level ecosystem effects that operated over abroadspatialscaleofabout300kmalong thecoast forat least threeyearsfollowingtheblowoutincident.

189. The indications of a trophic cascade triggered by seabirdmortalities fromoiling after theDeepwaterHorizon blowout raises concern for these effectselsewhere, including theFraserRiver estuary should a largeoil spill inflictmassivemortalitiesofseabirdsthere.

190. Thepredator‐preyrelationshipsinvolvingsea‐andshorebirdsintheFraserRiver estuary (including Burrard Inlet) therefore need to be carefullyevaluatedtoidentifypossibilitiesfortrophiccascadeeffectsfollowinglarge‐scalemortalitiesofbirdsfromanoilspill.Thesecascadingeffectsmayextendfar beyond the Georgia Strait if migratory birds suffer population‐levelmortalities,becausethesepopulation‐leveleffectswillhaverepercussionsinthedistanthabitatsoccupiedbythesebirdsthroughouttheirmigrations.

191. Even spills considerably smaller than the credible worst‐case scenario of16,000m3canhavesubstantialadverseeffectsonsea‐andshorebirdsaswellas marine mammals and other organisms inhabiting the sea surface,shorelines,andthewatercolumniftheoilsubmerges.Smalltomediumsizedoilspillsontheorderof100to1,000m3cancausesubstantialmortalitiestoseabirds.105Forexample,the875m3ofheavyBunkeroilreleasedoffGray’sHarbor from the 1988Nestucca spill was estimated to have killed tens of

104RameyTS,MillerM (2011)D.A.Davidson stock analyst report forOmegaProtein Corp., issuedAugust16,2011;RameyTS,MillerM(2012)D.A.DavidsonstockanalystreportforOmegaProteinCorp.,issuedJune14,2012

105Harding LE, Englar JR (1989) The Nestucca oil spill: Fate and Effects to May 31, 1989.EnvironmentalProtection,ConservationandProtection,EnvironmentCanada.


74

thousands of seabirds in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and along the outsidecoastofVancouverIsland.106

192. Inaddition,asmall,mediumorcredibleworst‐casescenariosizedspillhasthepotentialtocontaminatetensofkilometersofshorelinesontimescalesofdecades.107

193. In summary, the seasonally high abundances of sea‐ and shorebirds in theFraser River estuary, including Burrard Inlet, may suffer extensivemortalities should amajor accidental spill of diluted bitumen occur there.These mortalities could lead to population‐level ecosystem perturbationsboth regionally and farther afield if substantial proportions of species’populationsarekilled.EnsuingecosystemperturbationsintheFraserRiverestuarymight lead todisruptions in the recruitmentofmanyotheraquaticspecies, either because of higher consumption of plankton by forage fishreleasedfrompredationbyseabirds,orbypoornutritivevalueofforagefishfortheirseabird,marinemammal,andotherfishthatconsumethem.Theseeffects should be evaluated by a comprehensive food‐web analysis of themarineecosystem.

5.3.2 MarineMammals

KEYPOINTS:

Becauseoftheirrelativelylargenumbersandsensitivitytooil,amajoroilspillwouldlikelyresultinsubstantialmortalitiesofharboursealsandporpoises

Mortalitiesfromamajoroilspillcould jeopardizetheviabilityoftheendangeredsouthernresidentkillerwhalepopulation,elevatingtheirriskofextinction

194. Likeseabirds,marinemammalsspendpartoftheirlivesincontactwiththesea surface, making them vulnerable to direct contact with oil. Marinemammals are especially vulnerable to narcosis following inhalation of

106MineralsManagementService,AlaskaOuterContinentalShelfRegion(2003)CookInletplanningarea, oil and gas lease sales 191 and 199, final environmental impact statement. United StatesDepartmentof Interior,MineralsManagement Service,AlaskaOCSRegion, 949East36thAve.,Rm.308,Anchorage,Alaska99508‐4302.

107WSPCanada(2014)RiskAssessmentforMarineSpillsinCanadianWater:Phase1,OilSpillsSouthofthe60thParallel.ReportfromWSPCanadaInc.toTransportCanada.172p.andappendices.


75

hydrocarbon vapours because narcosis may lead to drowning.108 Marinemammals are vulnerable to adverse effects from ingestion of oil, throughingestionofoiledpreyorthroughpreeningofoiledfur.Exposuretooilmayalso irritate the eyes and skin of marine mammals. Unlike other marinemammals,seaottersrelyontheir fur insteadofa layerofblubber fortheirinsulation,socontactwithoilreducestheirabilitytoconserveheat.

195. Oil spills are capable of causing extensivemortalities of marine mammalswhenpresentinlargenumbers.Forexample,the1989ExxonValdezoilspillkilled an estimated 300 harbour seals (or ~13% of the residentpopulation)109and 2,800 sea otters (~28%).110Two pods of killer whalesthat were observed to come into contact with floating oil from the ExxonValdez spillhadunprecedentedmortalitieswithinthenextyear,andoneofthepodshasyettorecover.111

196. In the Salish Sea, there are 29 species of marine mammals that are bothhighly dependent on intertidal or marine habitat as well as on marinederivedfood.Themostabundantofthesespeciesincludeharbourseals,riverotters,harbourporpoise,andDall’sporpoise.112Lessabundant,occasionalorrare species include Northern fur seal; Steller’s and California sea lions;Northern elephant seal; Minke, Bryde’s, Grey, Fin, Short‐finned pilot,NorthernRight,Pygmysperm,Killer,False‐killerandfourspeciesofbeakedwhales; and Long‐beaked, Short‐beaked, Risso’s and Pacific white‐sideddolphinsandseaotters.

197. Based on stock assessments conducted for the waters within the UnitedStates,harboursealsareperhapsthemostabundantmarinemammalintheSalish Sea. The stock assessments suggest that comparable numbers(~10,000) of harbour seals may inhabit Canadian waters in the Georgia

108Engelhardt FR (1987) Assessment of the vulnerability of marinemammals to oil pollution. Pp101‐115 in J Kiuper andWJ Van Den Brink (eds.), Fate and Effects of Oil in Marine Ecosystems.MartinusNijhoffPublishing,Boston,Massachusetts.

109Frost KJ, Lowry LF, Sinclair EH, Ver Hoef J, McAllister DC (1994) Impacts on distribution,abundanceandproductivityofharborseals.Pages331‐358 inTRLoughlin(ed.),MarineMammalsandtheExxonValdez.AcademicPress,NewYork.

110Garrott RA, Eberhardt LL, Burn DM (1993) Mortality of sea otters in Prince William SoundfollowingtheExxonValdezoilspill.MarineMammalScience9:343‐359.

111MatkinCO,SaulitisEL,EllisGM,OlesiukP,RiceSD(2008)Ongoingpopulation‐level impactsonkiller whales Orcinus orca following the ‘ExxonValdez’ oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska.MarineEcologyProgressSeries356:269‐281.

112Gaydos2011.


76

Strait.113TheHarbourporpoisepopulationof the insidewatersof southernBritishColumbiaandtheStateofWashingtonisaround10,000,withperhapshalf that number in southern British Columbia.114Except for killer whales,populationestimates for theotherspeciesareeitherunavailableorarenotspecifictotheSalishSea.115

198. The population of the southern resident stock of killerwhales thatmainlyinhabit the Salish Sea and Puget Soundwas estimated at 87 individuals in2007, and the stock is listed as endangered under the U.S. EndangeredSpecies Act and by the Canadian Species at Risk Act.116This population ofkiller whales is currently suffering from high body burdens of persistentorganic pollutants such as flame retardants,117making them especiallyvulnerabletoadverseeffectsfromothercontaminantssuchasoilpollution.

199. Alarge(e.g.8,000–16,000m3)dilutedbitumenspillinBurrardInletornearthe rest of the FraserRiver estuarywould almost certainly kill substantialnumbers of marine mammals, especially harbour seals and harbourporpoises because of their relative abundance in the Salish Sea. Othermarinemammalsmayalsobeadverselyaffectedbydilutedbitumenfromaspill, although detecting adverse impacts to these species remainsproblematic. Thesemarinemammals are vulnerable to direct contactwithdiluted bitumen floating on the sea surface, and also indirectly throughingestionofoil‐contaminatedfishorotherprey.Exposureofindividualkillerwhales,however,couldhaveadversepopulation‐levelconsequencesforthisalreadyendangeredstock,whereprematurelossofjustoneindividualcouldsignificantlycontributetothejeopardyofthisstock.

113Carretta JV,ForneyKA,LowryMS,Barlow J,Baker J, JohnstonD,HansonB,MutoMM,LynchD,Carswell L (2009) U.S. Pacific marine mammal stock assessments: 2008. NOAA TechnicalMemorandum NMFS # NOAA‐TM‐NMFS‐SWFSC‐434. U.S. Department of Commerce, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest FisheriesScienceCenter.

114Ibid.

115Ibid.

116Ibid.; Gaydos JK,BrownNA (2009) Species of concernwithin the Salish Seamarine ecosystem:changes from 2002 to 2008. Proceedings of the 2009 Puget Sound Georgia Basin EcosystemConference,Seattle,Washington.

117KrahnMM,HansonMB,BairdRW,BoyerRH,BurrowsDG,EmmonsCK,J.FordKB,JonesLL,NorenDP,RossPS,SchorrGS,CollierTK(2007)Persistentorganicpollutantsandstableisotopesinbiopsysamples (2004/2006) from Southern Resident killer whales. Marine Pollution Bulletin 54:1903–1911.


77

200. In summary, amajor spill of diluted bitumen in Burrard Inlet or near theFraser River estuary could inflict population‐level mortalities on residentandmigratorymarinemammals.Fortheendangeredsouthernresidentstockofkillerwhales,anylossesfromanoilspillcouldmateriallycontributetotheriskofextinction for this stock,whichwouldpermanentlyalter themarinefoodweboftheregion.

5.4 Effects of diluted bitumen on species beneath the seasurface

201. This sectiondescribeshowsubmergeddilutedbitumenwould contaminateaquatic organisms in the upper water column, including fish, jellyfish andother free‐swimming suspension feeders. Contamination of these fish andsuspensionfeedingorganismsnotonlyhasdirectandadverseeffectsontheorganisms themselves, but also provides an indirect oil exposure route topredators that consume these organisms. These various exposure routesprovide additional examples of inadequate consideration of oil exposureeffectsintheTransMountainapplication.

KEYPOINTS:

Thedepthofdilutedbitumensubmergenceintheupperwatercolumnislimitedmainlybythesalinityofthesurfacewaters,thestrengthofwaveaction, and theextentof evaporativeweatheringof thedilutedbitumen

Diluted bitumen entrained into the water column can be ingesteddirectly by fish, including juvenile salmon out‐migrating from theFraser River, and by numerous other species of jellyfish and otherfree‐swimmingsuspensionfeeders

Free‐swimming suspension feeders that accumulate submergeddiluted bitumen provide an indirect route for contaminating theirpredators,whichincludejuvenile,sub‐adultandadultsalmonspeciesassociated with the Fraser River watershed and also salmonhatcheriesinBurrardInlet

The overall consequences of water column contamination bysubmergeddilutedbitumenaredifficulttoassess,becauseofthegreatuncertainty inevaluating theamountofoil that submerges, trackingwhere it goes andhencewhat species and shorelines it affects oncesubmerged, andsamplingaffected species toevaluate theamountofcontaminationaccumulatedbythem.Thisuncertaintyitselfcanhave


78

major socio‐economic repercussions arising from concerns ofwidespreadcontamination

5.4.1 Oilexposuremechanismsintheupperwatercolumnafteranoilspill

202. Asthedensityofspilleddilutedbitumenincreasesbecauseofinitiallyrapidevaporationofthelightergascondensatecomponents,theremainingdilutedbitumen residue becomes increasingly susceptible to entrainment intosurfacewatersbywaveaction.Thisprocessissimilartoasandstorm,wherewind‐driven turbulence can entrain sand into the air despite the muchgreaterdensityofsandparticlesincomparisonwiththeatmosphere.Butaswith a sand storm, lower‐density diluted bitumen droplets entrained intosurface waters will soon rise back to the surface once the mixing energysupplied by wave action is no longer supplied. This wave‐driven mixingprocess suppliesamechanism forexposingaquaticorganisms in theupperwatercolumndirectlytoentrainedwaterdroplets,ortooilconstituentsthatdissolvefromthesedropletsandfromthesurfaceoilslick.

203. As evaporative weathering proceeds, the density of the remaining dilutedbitumenresiduecanexceedthatoffreshwater.Itwillthenbegintosubmergeinthewatercolumnifthesalinityislowatthesurface.TheFraserRiveritselfis freshwater, so a pipeline rupture upstream of the Fraser River estuarycould contain submerged diluted bitumen by the time the diluted bitumenresidue reaches the estuary. Submerged diluted bitumen entrained in theFraserRivercouldthensettleontheintertidalmarshesatSouthArmwheninundatedathightides,potentiallyresultinginwidespreadoilingthroughoutthemarshunderworst‐case conditions.118Evaporatively‐weathereddilutedbitumencouldalsosubmerge inmarinewaterswhenthesurfacesalinity islow,asduringthespringandsummerFraserRiverfreshetorinBurrardInletfollowinghighwatershedrunoffduringthespringsnowmeltandaugmentedbyheavyprecipitationevents.Dilutedbitumenthatsubmergesundertheseconditionscandisperse throughout theupperwater column todepths thatare determined by the increase of salinity of the water with depth. Thisprovides anothermechanism for exposing aquatic organisms in the upperwatercolumndirectlytoentrainedwaterdroplets,ortooilconstituentsthatdissolvefromthesedropletsandfromthesurfaceoilslick.

118For example, a high volume diluted bitumen release to the Fraser River at a point far enoughupstream to permit enough evaporative weathering that the diluted bitumen submerges prior toreachingtheFraserRiverestuary,andthenreachestheestuaryathightidewhentheslowercurrentspeedleadstodilutedbitumendepositiondirectlyoverintertidalmarshes.


79

5.4.2 Effectsofdilutedbitumennaturallydispersedintheupperwatercolumnonaquaticorganisms

204. Fish, gelatinous zooplankton and other suspension feeding organisms areespeciallylikelytoaccumulatesubmergeddilutedbitumendroplets,leadingtoadverseeffectson theseorganismsdirectly, or to theirpredators if theyingest these oil‐contaminated organisms as prey.119Larval and juvenile lifestagesoffishoftentargetpreyorganismswithinsizerangesthataresimilarto those of dispersed oil droplets, and hence may ingest these dropletsdirectly.120Ingestion of oil impairs growth, prolonging the window ofvulnerability of these larval and juvenile stages to their predators.121Gelatinouszooplanktonsuchas jellyfish, larvaceans,122andotherorganismsthat filterzooplanktonandotherparticulatematter fromthewatercolumnmayincludenaturallydispersedcrudeoilproductssuchasdilutedbitumenwhenpresent.Althoughthedirecteffectsofingestedoilontheseorganismsis poorly understood, they serve as important prey for some fish speciesincludingpinksalmon.123

205. Submerged diluted bitumen that is naturally dispersed in the upperwatercolumn presents a contamination hazard to commercially important fish,especially salmon. In addition to ingestion of submerged diluted bitumendropletsbyout‐migratingjuvenilesalmonfromtheFraserRiverorreleasedfromsalmonhatcheriesinBurrardInletduringspring,dilutedbitumenmay

119PetersonCH,AndersonSS,CherrGN,AmbroseRF,AngheraS,BayS,BlumM,CondonR,DeanTA,GrahamM,GuzyM,HamptonS,JoyeS,LambrinosJ,MateB,MeffertD,PowersSP,SomasundaranP,SpiesRB,TaylorCM,TjeerdemaR,AdamsEE (2012)A taleof twospills:Novelscienceandpolicyimplicationsofanemergingnewoilspillmodel.Bioscience62:461–469.

120WertheimerAC,CelewyczAG(1996)Abundanceandgrowthofjuvenilepinksalmoninoiledandnon‐oiledlocationsofwesternPrinceWilliamSoundaftertheExxonValdezoilspill.Pp518–532inSDRice,RBSpies,DAWolfe,BAWright(eds.)ProceedingsoftheExxonValdezoilspillsymposium.AmericanFisheriesSociety18.

121Luquet 1984; CarlsMG,HollandL, LarsenM, Lum JL,MortensenDG,Wang SY,WertheimerAC(1996)Growth,feedingandsurvivalofpinksalmonfryexposedtofoodcontaminatedwithcrudeoil.Pp608‐618inSDRice,RBSpies,DAWolfe,BAWright(eds.)ProceedingsoftheExxonValdezoilspillsymposium.AmericanFisheriesSociety18.

122Larvaceansaresmall (~1cm) free‐swimmingtunicates,andpteropodsaresmall (<1cm) free‐swimming marine snails. Both secrete mucus films that traps particulate matter includingmicroscopicphyto‐andzooplantonfromthewatercolumn,andcanalsotrapsmalldropletsofcrudeoil.

123CooneyRT,Allen JR,BishopMA,EslingerDL,KlineT,NorcrossBL,McRoyCP,Milton J,Olsen J,Patrick V, Paul AJ, Salmon D, Scheel D, Thomas GL, Vaughan SL, Willette TM (2001) Ecosystemcontrols of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi)populationsinPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska.FisheriesOceanography10(s1):1–13.


80

beingestedbyadultandsub‐adultlifestagesofsalmon.Adultandsub‐adultsockeye salmon are suspension feeders that filter small particulatemattersuchasphytoplanktonandzooplanktonfromthewatercolumn,andwouldingest smalldropletsofdilutedbitumen that fallwithin their filtration sizerange.Pinkandchumsalmoningestgelatinouszooplankton,whichprovideameans for tainting if their prey is contaminated by oil. Themere crediblethreat of contamination should a large‐scale spill occur could have seriousadverse consequences for these fisheries stemming from impairedmarketability of products suspected of tainting, even when tainting isundetectable.

81

6.0 SummaryofOpinions

206. Assetoutinmyreport,thereareatleastfourfundamentaldeficiencieswithTrans Mountain’s ecological risk assessment of the Project. It should notthereforebeusedtoassesstheecologicalriskoftheProject.

207. A recently published study124that intensively monitored the physical andchemicalchangesofanexperimentaloilspillintheNorthSeain2009duringthe initial 24 hours found that losses of volatile oil components occurredmuch more rapidly than predictions based on equations developed byEnvironmentCanada.Theseexperimentalresultsimplythatspilleddilbitwillbecome susceptible to submergence in fresh and brackish waters morequickly than previously considered. In their stated Views of the Panelregarding the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline from the Alberta oilsandstoKitimat,BritishColumbia,theNationalEnergyBoard’sJointreviewPanel acknowledged that spilled diluted bitumen is susceptible tosubmergence in fresh water as a result of evaporation of volatilehydrocarbons.125Results from the experimental oil spill indicate that suchsubmergencecouldhappenmuchmorequicklythanpreviouslyrecognized.

208. Underrealisticambientconditionsandslickthicknesses,theresultsfromtheexperimentaloilspillconductedintheNorthSeastronglyimplythatdilutedbitumenspilledinBurrardInletortheFraserRiverestuaryduringthespringfreshetcouldbegintosubmergeafter24hours.

209. An oil spill from the Project or its associatedmarine shipping activities inBurrard Inlet or the Fraser River estuary could lead to amajor ecologicalcatastrophe.

210. The high biological productivity of the Fraser River estuary supportsextraordinarily high populations and densities of marine mammals and ofsea‐andshorebirds,especiallyduringtheirspringandfallmigrations.Thesemammalsandbirdsareattractedbyhighseasonalabundancesofsalmonidsmigrating into or out of the Fraser River and of Pacific herring and otherforagefish,alongwiththehighproductivityofalgaeandinvertebratesontheextensivesandandmudflatsatSturgeonBanksandtheSouthArmmarshes.

211. An oil spill in the Fraser River estuary may therefore expose largepopulations of sea‐ and shorebirds to direct contactwith diluted bitumen,whichwouldkillmostofthebirdscontaminated.Areasonableworst‐caseoilspillcouldresultinmortalitiesof100,000–500,000birds,enoughtodisrupt

124Gros2014.

125NationalEnergyBoard2013.

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary6.0SummaryofOpinions

82

ecosystem functioning for years or even permanently, and to affect otherdistanthabitatsoccupiedseasonallybymigratoryspecies.Highmortalitiesofmarine mammals could also result for species such as killer whales,porpoises, dolphins and seals that, like seabirds, routinely inhabit the seasurface,making themespecially vulnerable to contactwith floating dilutedbitumen.Inthecaseofthesouthernresidentpopulationofkillerwhales,anyadditionalmortalitiesresultingfromoilexposurecouldmateriallycontributeto the extinction risk for this stock, which would permanently alterecosystem functioning in the Salish Sea. Also, once oiled, many of theshorelinesofBurrardInletandtherestoftheFraserRiverdeltawouldretainoil residues formonths toseveraldecades,presenting long‐termreservoirsofcontaminationfororganismsassociatedwiththeseshorelines,andhencesubstantial adverse consequences for subsistence uses, tourism andcommercialfishing.

212. Amajormortalityeventforseabirdsandshorebirdsmighttriggeratrophiccascade,andifitdiditwouldbethemostseriouslong‐termconsequenceofamajor oil spill in the Fraser River estuary. A large reduction of seabirdscaused by exposure to spilled oil could cause a disproportionately largeincreaseoftheirforagefishprey.Inturn,thiscoulddepresstheabundanceoftheplanktonicorganismsconsumedbyforagefish,includingthelarvalstagesof a host of other marine organisms such as shellfish and finfish that areimportanteconomicallyorforsubsistenceharvests.

213. Dilutedbitumenconsistsof low‐volatility,high‐densitybitumenmixedwithhigh‐volatility, low‐density hydrocarbon diluents. It is susceptible tosubmergence or sinking in fresh or brackish estuarine waters. Naturalbitumen from the Alberta oil sands is often inherently susceptible tosubmerginginbrackishwater,andwilldosooncethemorevolatilediluentevaporatesfollowingaspill.

214. Careful reviewof experiments conducted to evaluate the time required forsubmergencetooccursuggeststhatdiluteddilbitspilledinBurrardInletortheFraserRiverestuarycouldsubmergefollowing24hoursafteranoilspill.Contactwithinorganicmaterialentrainedintheestuarinewatercolumn,orbycontactwithsandormudshorelineswoulddecreasethetimerequiredforsubmergence.

215. Oil submergence makes tracking the movement of the oil and clean‐upoperationsmuchmorechallenging,andopensahostofnewpathwaysforoilexposuretoorganismsthatinhabitthewatercolumn,seafloorandintertidalreachesofshorelines.Suspension‐feedingorganismssuchasclams,mussels,barnacles, gelatinous zooplankton, and fish occupying these habitats mayingest oil submerged in the water column. These organisms would then

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuary6.0SummaryofOpinions

83

provide an indirect oil exposure pathway for species such as seabirds andmarinemammalsthatconsumethem.Alongwiththeinvisibledispersionofsubmerged oil itself, this indirect pathway increases uncertainty regardingtheextent,duration,andtoxicityofoiledspeciesandhabitats.Thisincreaseduncertaintycanbyitselfbeamajoradverseeffectofanoilspillbydissuadingpeoples from continuing traditional subsistence harvests for fear ofencountering cryptically‐contaminated subsistence foods, by causing largerand more prolonged commercial fishery closures because of uncertaintyregardingcontaminationofharvestspecies,andbyreducingtourismbecauseofconcernsregardingthesafetyorecologicalintegrityofhabitatsfrequentedbytourists.

216. Widespread contamination of shorelines following a large oil spill all butguarantees that people will encounter lingering pockets of oil on high‐retention shorelines for many years to decades following a spill. Oncestranded on shorelines, diluted bitumen released from an accidental spillmaypersistfordaystoseveraldecadesorevenacenturyunderworst‐caseconditions. The factors most conducive to long‐term oil retention onshorelines include: (1)poroussediments suchasgravelormixedsandandgravel, especially when protected by a surface layer of larger cobbles andboulders;(2)oilpenetrationalongchannelscreatedbyorganismsinhabitingthe sediments ofmud or sandy beaches; (3) oil penetration beneath thesebeacheswhere low availability of oxygen and inorganic nutrients impedesmicrobial degradation of the oil; and (4) oil penetration into densevegetation such as intertidal marsh grasses or eelgrass beds, where theinterstices of decaying vegetation readily trap oil and the high biologicaloxygendemandreducesmicrobialdegradationofthetrappedoil.Shorelinessusceptible to long‐term retention of diluted bitumen are distributedthroughoutbothBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverestuary.

217. In the nearer term, oil impinging on shorelines may kill organisms thatrespireaerobicallybysmotheringthem,orbyphysicaldisturbancescausedby shoreline cleanup methods. Embryos of fish and other species thatdevelopon the intertidalor shallowsubtidal reachesof shorelinesmaydiefromtoxiceffectscausedbyexposuretoPAHthatleachesfromoilstrandedonshorelines,andtranslucentorganismsmayalsodiefromphoto‐enhancedtoxicityeffects,alsocausedbycertainPAHfromoil.Ifmortalitiesofintertidalorganisms arewidespread and nearly complete, as is often the casewhenshorelines are smothered by oil orwhen cleanup operations are extensiveandhighlydamaging,thesecommunitiesmayrequireyearstorecover.

218. Finally, even spills considerably smaller than the credible worst‐casescenario of 16,000 m3 can have substantial adverse effects on sea‐ andshorebirdsaswellasmarinemammalsandotherorganisms inhabiting the

85

7.0 Appendices

Appendix1

CURRICULUMVITAE

JEFFREYW.SHORT,PH.D.,PRINCIPAL,JWSCONSULTINGLLC

19315GlacierHighway Juneau, Alaska 99801& 920Poeyfarre St #330NewOrleans, LA70130

Tel:+01.907.209.3321;Email:[email protected]

ProfessionalExperience:

Chevron/TexPetEcuadorOilContamination(sinceJanuary2013).RetainedbyLouis Berger, Inc. on behalf of Winston‐Strawn LLP, attorneys representing theRepublic of Ecuador in Bilateral Investment Treaty Arbitration in the matter oflingering petroleum contamination in the northern Amazon forest of EcuadorproducedduringexplorationandproductionoperationsconductedbyTexaco(nowChevron)priorto1993.Responsibilities includeevaluationofanalyticalchemistryevidence of source, toxicity, and persistence of lingering oil associated with oilproductionfacilities.

WaterQualityMonitoringReview, LakeGeorge,NewYork (sinceDecember2012).

Provide expert review of 30‐year limnologicalmonitoring program sponsored byTheFUNDforLakeGeorge,andprovideseniorscientificguidanceforTheJeffersonProject, a collaboration of The FUND, Rensselaer Polytechnic University and IBMCorp.tocombineadvancedenvironmentalsensorsandcomputingpowertocreatethemostadvancedecosystemmodelofalakeanywhereintheworld.

ScienceCoordinator,BPMDL2179PSC(sinceDecember2010).RetainedbythePlaintiff’sSteeringCommittee for theBritishPetroleumMulti‐DistrictLitigation tooversee scientific support for the transport, fate and environmental effects of oilreleased from the April 2010 DeepwaterHorizon blowout in the Gulf of Mexico.Responsibilities included formulating the overall science strategy, identifying andrecruiting internationallyrecognizedexpertstosupport it,andprovidingscientificguidance, insight and advice to the PSC attorneys. This case recently settled for~$7.8BontermsfavorabletothePSC,basedinpartonthestrengthofthescientificpositionsestablishedbytheexpertteamIrecruited.

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuaryAppendix1:CurriculumVitaeofJeffreyShort,Ph.D.

86

Jet A Fuel Oil Review for the Vancouver Airport Fuel Delivery Project(January–February2012).RetainedbyCoastal&OceanResources Inc. toreviewecotoxicological risks posed by jet A/A‐1 fuels and additives following accidentalspills.

Expert Witness, Northern Gateway Pipeline Proposal (since May 2011).Retainedby JanesFreedmanKyleLawCorporationonbehalfof theGitxa’alaFirstNationforascientificexpertpaneltoreviewenvironmentalriskspresentedbytheNorthern Gateway pipeline project from Edmonton, Alberta to Kitimat, BritishColumbiaproposedbyEnbridgeCorporation.

PacificScienceDirector,Oceana(November2008toDecember2010).Mymainfocuswastofosterandcoordinatethecollaborativedevelopmentandarticulationofthe scientific rationale for ocean policy recommendations of the Pacific Team ofOceana.Myresponsibilitiesincludedensuringthatpolicyrecommendationshaveafirmscientificbasisandprovidingscientificadviceregardingadvocacyandlitigationpriorities.AssupervisorofthePacificTeam’sscientificstaff,IwasalsoresponsibleforthescientificdefenseofOceana’sadvocacypositionsatscientific, litigationandpolicyvenuesrelevanttoPacificandArcticOceanissues,includingtheirarticulationinmediarangingfromop/edarticlesandnewsreleasestopeer‐reviewedscientificmanuscripts, and for supporting these activities through grant writing. Finally, Ipromotedourcontactswiththescientificcommunityengagedinoceanandclimateresearch, with relevant government agencies and with other environmentalorganizations, which included organizing the scientific program for the 2009InternationalArcticFisheriesSymposiumheldinAnchorage,Alaska.

ExpertWitness,CoscoBusanOilSpill(April2009toApril2011).RetainedbyCotchett,Pitre&McCarthyLLPtoprovideadviceandtestimonyonbehalfoffishingindustryplaintiffs injuredby the2008CoscoBusanoil spill in SanFranciscoBay,California.

ExpertWitness,LakeWabamunOilSpill (October2007 toNovember2008).On loan from the US Government to the Government of Canada, I designed andsupervised a study to estimate the amount of oil remaining in Lake Wabamun,Alberta following a Canadian National derailment a year earlier, and wrote anexpertopinionontheimplicationsoftheresults.Casesettledoutofcourtinfavorofthegovernment.


87

Supervisory Research Chemist, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NationalMarine Fisheries Service (1982 through November 2008). My four basicresponsibilities include acting as principal investigator (PI) on research projects,managingtheCenter’smarinechemistrylaboratory,advisingthegovernment’slegalteam on the long‐term fate and effects of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, andreviewing researchproducts that touchon the environmental chemistryof oil fortheCenterandfornumerouspeer‐reviewedenvironmentaljournals.

Research Project Principal Investigator. This includes conceiving,designing, securing funding, executing, analyzing andpublishing results forenvironmental research projects, usually in collaboration with numerouscolleaguesandsupportstaff.MostofmyworkhasbeenontheExxonValdezoil spill. Major projects included: (1) assessment of the initial distributionandpersistenceofthespilledoilinseawater;(2)discoveryandelucidationofacryptictoxicitymechanismthroughwhichoilpollutionisnearly1,000‐foldmore toxic to fisheggs thanpreviously thought; (3)definitive refutationofalternativehydrocarbonpollutionsourcesadvancedbyscientistsemployedbyExxonCorp. asplausible causesof biological effects in theExxonValdezimpact area; (4) discovery of a natural hydrocarbon trophic tracer in themarine food web of the northern Gulf of Alaska; and (5) quantitativemeasurement of the amount and loss rate of ExxonValdez oil lingering inbeaches 12 years or longer after the incident. Each of thesewas funded at$500Kto$5M,andIplayedtheleadingroleonallbutthesecond.Asummaryof these projects appeared in Science as a review article I co‐authored in2003(SeePeterson,C.Hetal.).

Manager, AFSCMarine Chemistry Laboratory. I presided over a majorexpansionof theAFSCmarinechemistry laboratory in theaftermathof theExxonValdezspill,whenthegovernmenturgentlyneededadditionalcapacitycapableofmeetingthestringentstandardsimposedbyimpendinglitigation.Staff increasednearlytenfoldfromtwo,andsuccessfullyqualifiedasoneofonly three such facilities nationally to participate, generating revenues of$500K ‐ $1M annually. Today the facility is internationally recognized,specializingintheenvironmentalanalysisofhydrocarbons,biogeniclipidsinsupportofnutritionalecologystudies,andhigh‐precisioncharacterizationofthemarinecarbonatebuffersysteminsupportofincipientstudiesonoceanacidification.


88

ScientificAdvisortotheExxonValdezLegalTeamfortheGovernmentsofAlaskaandtheUnitedStates.ThecivilsettlementbetweenExxonCorp.and the governments of Alaska and the US created a $900M fundadministeredby theExxonValdez TrusteeCouncil that supported scientificstudies, habitat acquisition, and other impact offsets. I was one of fourscientists selected to design the Council’s scientific review policy andadministrative structure, and I have since provided policy guidance onrequest on numerous occasions, leading to publication of the 1993symposium presenting the initial findings of the Exxon Valdez oil spillimpacts as a book, establishment of and support for the annual AlaskaMarineScienceConferencebegunin1993,andleadingtheteamthatdraftedthescientificsupportforinvokingthe$100M“re‐opener”clauseoftheExxonValdezsettlementonbehalfoftheUSDepartmentofJustice.

ReviewerandAdvisor for theAFSConChemistry Issues. In addition toproviding peer‐review of dozens of manuscripts submitted to scientificjournals and proposals submitted to various funding agencies, I providedscientific advice to or on behalf of NMFS management. This includesproviding occasional invited testimony to the Alaska Legislature andGovernor,NOAAmanagementandtheScientificandStatisticalCommitteeoftheNorthPacificFisheriesManagementCouncil, andadvice togovernmentagenciesinCanada,China,NorwayandRussia.

Education:

BachelorofScience,BiochemistryandPhilosophy,UniversityofCaliforniaatRiverside,1973

MasterofScience,PhysicalChemistry,UniversityofCaliforniaatSantaCruz,1982

DoctorofPhilosophy,FisheriesBiology,UniversityofAlaskaatFairbanks,2005

Languages:MandarinChinese(speak,readandwrite);Russian(read)

SelectedActivitiesandHonors:

BronzeMedal,U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,"Forscientificresearchandpublicationsdescribingthelong‐term,insidiouseffectsofoilpollutiononfishembryosatpartsperbillionlevels”

ProgramreviewerforstudiesconductedbytheKoreanOceanResearch&DevelopmentInstituteontheeffectsofthe2007HebeiSpiritoilspillinKorea


89

AppointmentasVisitingProfessorfortheKeyLaboratoryofOilSpillIdentificationandDamageAssessmentTechnology,StateOceanicAdministration,Qingdao,People’sRepublicofChina

Coordinatingscientistforanon‐going,privately‐fundedstudiesoftheimpactsofpolycyclicaromatichydrocarbonsandtoxicmetalsontheAthabascaRiversystemfromoilsandsmining,inconjunctionwiththeUniversityofAlberta,theUniversityofSaskatchewanandQueen’sUniversityinCanada

AdvisortotheSakhalinResearchInstituteforFisheries&Oceanographyforhydrocarbonmonitoringandanalysis,Yuzhno‐Sakhalinsk,RussianFederation


90

SelectedPublications:

Haney,J.C.,Geiger,H.J.andShort,J.W.2014.BirdmortalityfromtheDeepwaterHorizonoilspill.I.ExposureprobabilityintheoffshoreGulfofMexico.Mar.Ecol.Prog.Ser.5113:225‐237

Haney,J.C.,Geiger,H.J.andShort,J.W.2014.BirdmortalityfromtheDeepwaterHorizonoilspill.II.CarcasssamplingandexposureprobabilityinthecoastalGulfofMexico.Mar.Ecol.Prog.Ser.5113:225‐237

Short,J.W.andMurray,S.M.2011.Afrozenhell.Nature472:163‐164.

Kelly,E.N.,Schindler,D.W.,Hodson,P.V.,Short,J.W.,Radmanovich,R.,Nielsen,C.C.2010.OilsandsdevelopmentcontributeselementstoxicatlowconcentrationsintheAthabascaRiveranditstributaries.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofScience107:16178‐16183.

Kelly,E.N.,Short,J.W.,Schindler,D.W.,Hodson,P.V.,Ma,M.,Kwan,A.K.,Fortin,B.L.2009.Oilsandsdevelopment contributes polycyclic aromatic compounds to the Athabasca River and itstributaries.ProceedingsNationalAcademyScience106:22346‐22351.

Springman,K.R.,Short, J.W., Lindeberg,M.R.,Maselko, J.M., Kahn, C.,Hodson,P.V., Rice, S.D. 2008.Semipermeable membrane devices link site‐specific contaminants to effects: Part I—induction of CYP1A in rainbow trout from contaminants In PrinceWilliam Sound, Alaska.MarineEnvironmentalResearch66:477‐486.

Short,J.W.,Springman,K.R.,Lindeberg,M.R.,Holland,L.G.,Larsen,M.L.,Sloan,C.A.,Khan,C.,Hodson,P.V., Rice, S.D. 2008. Semipermeablemembrane devices link site‐specific contaminants toeffects:PartII–acomparisonoflingeringExxonValdezoilwithotherpotentialsourcesofCYP1A inducers inPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska.MarineEnvironmentalResearch66:487‐498.

Short,J.W.2007.Applicationofpolycyclicaromatichydrocarbons(PAH)inchemicalfingerprinting.Ch. 9 in Environmental Impact of Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons, C. Anyakora, (ed.)ResearchSignpost.

Short,J.W.,Kolak,J.J.,Payne,J.R.,VanKooten,G.V.2007.AnevaluationofpetrogenichydrocarbonsinnorthernGulfofAlaskacontinentalshelfsediments–theroleofcoastalseepinputs.OrganicGeochemistry38:643‐670.

Short,J.W.,Irvine,G.V.,Mann,D.H.,Maselko,J.M.,Pella,J.J.,Lindeberg,M.R.,Payne,J.R.,Driskell,W.B.,Rice, S.D. 2007. Slightly weathered Exxon Valdez oil persists in Gulf of Alaska beachsedimentsafter16years.EnvironmentalScience&Technology41(4):1245‐1250.

Carls, M.G., Short, J.W., Payne, J. 2006. Accumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons byNeocalanuscopepodsinPortValdez,Alaska.MarineEnvironmentalResearch52:1480‐1489.


91

Short,J.W.,Springman,K.R.2006. Identificationofhydrocarbons inbiologicalsamplesforsourcedetermination. Ch. 12 in Oil Spill Environmental Forensics ‐ Fingerprinting and SourceIdentification,Wang,ZandStout,S.(eds)Elsevier.

Short, J.W., Maselko, J.M., Lindeberg, M.R., Harris, P.M., Rice, S.D. 2006. Vertical Distribution andProbabilityofEncounteringIntertidalExxonValdezOilonShorelinesofThreeEmbaymentswithinPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska.EnvironmentalScience&Technology40:3723‐3729.

Irvine, G.V., Mann, D.H., Short, J.W. 2006. Persistence of 10‐year old Exxon Valdez oil on Gulf ofAlaska beaches: The importance of boulder armoring. Marine Pollution Bulletin 52:1011‐1022.

Barron,M.G.,Carls,M.G.,Short,J.W.,Rice,S.D.,Heintz,R.A.,Rau,M.,DiGiulio,R.2005.Assessmentofthe phototoxicity of weathered Alaska North Slope crude oil to juvenile pink salmon.Chemosphere60:105‐110.

Carls,M. G.,Holland, L. G.,Short, J.W.,Heintz,R. A., andRice, S. D. 2004.Monitoringpolynucleararomatic hydrocarbons in aqueous environments with passive low‐density polyethylenemembranedevices.EnvironmentalToxicologyandChemistry,23:1416‐1424

Clark,L.,Khan,C.W.,Akhtar,P.,Hodson,P.V.,Lee,K,Wang,Z.,Short,J.2004.Comparativetoxicityoffourcrudeoilstotheearlylifestagesofrainbowtrout(Oncorhynchusmykiss).Proceedingsof the Twenty‐seventh Arctic and Marine Oil spill Program (AMOP) Technical Seminar,EnvironmentCanada,Ottawa,Ont.pp.785‐792.

Short,J.W.,Lindeberg,M.R.,Harris,P.M.,Maselko,J.M.,Pella,J.J.,andRice,S.D.2004.AnestimateofoilpersistingonbeachesofPrinceWilliamSound,12yearsaftertheExxonValdezoilspill.EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,38:19‐26.

Petersen,C.H.,Rice,S.D.,Short,J.W.,Esler,D.,Bodkin,J.L.,Ballachey,B.E.,andIrons,D.B.2003.Emergenceofecosystembasedtoxicology:LongtermconsequencesoftheExxonValdezoilspill.Science,302:2082‐2086.

Barron,M.G.,Carls,M.G.,Short,J.W.,andRice,S.D.2003.Photo‐enhancedtoxicityofaqueousphaseandchemicallydispersedweatheredAlaskaNorthSlopecrudeoiltoPacificherringeggsandlarvae.EnvironmentalToxicologyandChemistry22:650‐660.

Duesterloh, S., Short, J.W., and Barron, M. G. 2002. Photoenhanced toxicity of weathered AlaskaNorthSlopecrudeoiltothecalanoidcopepodsCalanusmarshallaeandMetridiaokhotensis.EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology36:3953‐3959.

Van Kooten, G. W., Short, J.W., and Kolak, J. J. 2002. Low maturity Kulthieth Formation coal: Apossible source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in benthic sediment of the northernGulfofAlaska.EnvironmentalForensics3:227‐242.


92

Heintz,R.A.,S.D.Rice,A.C.Wertheimer,R.F.Bradshaw,F.P.Thrower,J.E.Joyce,andJ.W.Short.2000. Delayed effects on growth and marine survival of pink salmon Oncorhynchusgorbuscha after exposure to crude oil during embryonic development. Marine EcologyProgressSeries208:205‐216

Heintz,R.A.,J.W.Short,andS.D.Rice.1999.Sensitivityoffishembryostoweatheredcrudeoil:PartII. Incubating downstream from weathered Exxon Valdez crude oil caused increasedmortality of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) embryos. Environ. Toxicol Chem 18:494‐503

Murphy, M.L., R.A. Heintz, J.W. Short, Larsen, M.L., and S.D. Rice. 1999. Recovery of pink salmonspawningaftertheExxonValdezoilspill.Trans.Amer.Fish.Soc.128:909‐918.

Short,J.W.,K.A.Kvenvolden,P.R.Carlson,F.D.Hostettler,R.J.Rosenbauer,andB.A.Wright.1999.ThenaturalhydrocarbonbackgroundinbenthicsedimentsofPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska:oilvs.coal.Environ.Sci.Tech.33:34‐42.

Irvine,G.V.,D.H.Mann,andJ.W.Short.1999.Multi‐yearpersistenceofoilmousseonhighenergybeachesdistantfromtheExxonValdezspillorigin.Mar.Pollut.Bull.38:572‐584.

Brown, E.D., B.L. Norcross, and J.W.Short. 1997. An introduction to studies on the effects of theExxonValdezoilspillonearly lifehistorystagesofPacificherring,Clupeapallasi, inPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska.CanadianJournalofFisheriesandAquaticSciences.53:2337‐2342.

Marty,G.D.,J.W.Short,D.M.Dambach,N.H.Willits,R.A.Heintz,S.D.Rice,J.J.Stegeman,

andD.E.Hinton.1997.Ascites,prematureemergence,increasedgonadalcellapoptosis,andcytochrome P4501A induction in pink salmon larvae continuously exposed to oil‐contaminatedgravelduringdevelopment.CanadianJournalofZoology75:989‐1007.

Short,J.W.andR.A.Heintz.1997.IdentificationofExxonValdezoil insedimentsandtissuesfromPrince William Sound and the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska based on PAH weathering.EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology31:2375‐2384.

Brown,E.D.,T.T.Baker, J.E.Hose,R.M.Kocan,G.D.Marty,M.D.McGurk,B.L.Norcross,and J.Short.1996.Injurytotheearly lifehistorystagesofPacificherringinPrinceWilliamSoundaftertheExxonValdez oil spill. Pages 448‐462 in Rice, S. D., R. B. Spies, D. A.Wolfe, and B. A.Wright (eds). Proceedings of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Symposium. American FisheriesSocietySymposium18.AmericanFisheriesSociety,Bethesda,Maryland

Carls,M.G.,A.C.Wertheimer,J.W.Short,R.M.Smolowitz,andJ.J.Stegeman.1996.Contaminationofjuvenile pink and chum salmonby hydrocarbons in PrinceWilliam Sound after theExxonValdezoilspill.Pages593‐607inRice,S.D.,R.B.Spies,D.A.Wolfe,andB.A.Wright(eds).ProceedingsoftheExxonValdezOilSpillSymposium.AmericanFisheriesSocietySymposium18.AmericanFisheriesSociety,Bethesda,Maryland.


93

O’Clair,C.E.,J.W.Short,andS.D.Rice.1996.ContaminationofintertidalandsubtidalsedimentsbyoilfromtheExxonValdezinPrinceWilliamSound.Pages61‐93inRice,S.D.,R.B.Spies,D.A.Wolfe, and B. A. Wright (eds). Proceedings of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Symposium.AmericanFisheriesSocietySymposium18.AmericanFisheriesSociety,Bethesda,Maryland

Short, J.W. and M.M. Babcock. 1996. Prespill and postspill concentrations of hydrocarbons inmusselsandsedimentsinPrinceWilliamSound.Pages149‐166inRice,S.D.,R.B.Spies,D.A.Wolfe, and B. A. Wright (eds). Proceedings of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Symposium.AmericanFisheriesSocietySymposium18.AmericanFisheriesSociety,Bethesda,Maryland.

Short, J.W. and P.M. Harris. 1996. Petroleum hydrocarbons in caged mussels deployed in PrinceWilliamSound after theExxonValdez oil spill. Pages29‐39 inRice, S.D., R. B. Spies,D.A.Wolfe, and B. A. Wright (eds). Proceedings of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Symposium.AmericanFisheriesSocietySymposium18.AmericanFisheriesSociety,Bethesda,Maryland.

Short, J.W. and P.M. Harris. 1996. Chemical sampling and analysis of petroleum hydrocarbons innear‐surfaceseawaterofPrinceWilliamSoundaftertheExxonValdezoilspill.Pages17‐28inRice,S.D.,R.B.Spies,D.A.Wolfe,andB.A.Wright(eds).ProceedingsoftheExxonValdezOilSpillSymposium.AmericanFisheriesSocietySymposium18.AmericanFisheriesSociety,Bethesda,Maryland.

Short,J.W.,T.J.Jackson,M.L.Larsen,andT.L.Wade.1996.Analyticalmethodsusedfortheanalysisofhydrocarbons in crude oil, tissues, sediments, and seawater collected for the NaturalResourcesDamageAssessmentoftheExxonValdezoilspill.Pages140‐148inRice,S.D.,R.B.Spies, D. A. Wolfe, and B. A. Wright (eds). Proceedings of the Exxon Valdez Oil SpillSymposium. American Fisheries Society Symposium 18. American Fisheries Society,Bethesda,Maryland.

Short, J.W.,D.M. Sale, and J.C.Gibeaut. 1996.Nearshore transportof hydrocarbonsand sedimentsafter theExxonValdezoilspill.Pages40‐60 inRice,S.D.,R.B.Spies,D.A.Wolfe,andB.A.Wright (eds). Proceedings of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Symposium. American FisheriesSocietySymposium18.AmericanFisheriesSociety,Bethesda,Maryland.

Wolfe,D.A.,M.J.Hameedi,J.A.Galt,G.Watabayashi,J.Short,C.O’Clair,S.Rice,J.Michel,J.R.Payne,J.Braddock, S. Hanna, and D. Sale. 1994. The fate of the oil spilled from the Exxon Valdez.EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology28(13):561A‐568A

Karinen, J.F., M.M. Babcock, D.W. Brown, W.D. MacLeod, Jr., L.S. Ramos, and J.W. Short. 1993.HydrocarbonsinintertidalsedimentsandmusselsfromPrinceWilliamSound,Alaska,1977‐1980: Characterization and probable sources. United States Department of Commerce,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration TechnicalMemorandumNMFS‐AFSC‐9.69p.


94

Stickle, W.B., J.L. Sharp‐Dahl, S.D. Rice, and J.W. Short. 1990. Imposex induction in Nucella lima(Gmelin)viamodeofexposuretotributyltin.J.Exp.Mar.Biol.Ecol.143:165‐180.

Short, J.W., S.D. Rice, C.C. Brodersen, andW.B. Stickle. 1989. Occurrence of tri‐n‐butyltin causedimposex intheNorthPacificmarinesnailNucella limainAukeBay,Alaska.Mar.Biol.102:291‐297

Short,J.W.andJ.L.Sharp.1989.Tributyltininbaymussels(Mytilusedulis)ofthePacificcoastoftheUnitedStates.Environ.Sci.Technol.23(6):740‐743.

Rice,S.D.,M.M.Babcock,C.C.Brodersen,M.G.Carls,J.A.Gharrett,S.Korn,A.Moles,andJ.Short.1987.Lethaland sublethal effectsof thewater‐soluble fractionofCook Inlet crudeoilonPacificherringClupeaharenguspallasireproduction.U.S.Dep.Commer.,NOAATech.Memo.NMFSF/NWC‐111,63p.

Short,J.W.1987.Measuringtri‐n‐butyltininsalmonbyatomicabsorption:analysiswithandwithoutgaschromatography.Bull.Environ.Contam.Toxicol.39:412‐416.

Short, J.W. and F.P. Thrower. 1987. Toxicity of tri‐n‐butyltin to chinook salmon, Oncorhynchustshawytscha, adapted to seawater. Aquaculture 61: 193‐200.Short, J.W. and F.P. Thrower.1986. Tri‐n‐butyltin caused mortality of chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, ontransfertoaTBT‐treatedmarinenetpen.Pages1202‐1205in:Oceans86conferencerecord.IEEEServiceCenter,445HoesLane,Piscataway,NJ.

Short, J.W. andF.P. Thrower. 1986.Accumulationof butyltins inmuscle tissue of chinook salmonrearedinseapenstreatedwithtri‐n‐butyltin.Mar.Pollut.Bull.17:542‐545.

Brodersen,C.C.,S.D.Rice, J.W.Short,T.A.Mecklenburg,and J.F.Karinen.1977.Sensitivityof larvalandadultAlaskashrimpandcrabstoacuteexposuresofthewater‐solublefractionofCookInlet crudeoil. Pp. 575‐578 inAPI, EPA, andUSCG,1977Oil Spill Conference (Prevention,Behavior,Control,Cleanup),Proceedingsofa symposiumMarch8‐10,1977,NewOrleans.AmericanPetroleumInstitute,Washington,D.C.

Rice, S.D., J.W. Short, and J.F. Karinen. 1977. Comparative oil toxicity and comparative animalsensitivity. In Fate and Effects of Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Marine Organisms andEcosystems (Edited by D.A. Wolfe), pp. 78‐94. Proceedings of a symposium. New York,PergamonPress.

Rice, S.D., R.E. Thomas, and J.W.Short. 1977. Effect of petroleumhydrocarbons on breathing andcoughing rates and hydrocarbon uptake‐depuration in pink salmon fry. In PhysiologicalResponsesofMarineBiotatoPollutants(EditedbyF.J.Vernberg,A.Calabrese,F.P.Thurberg,andW.B.Vernberg),pp.259‐277.AcademicPressInc.,NewYork.462p.

Rice,S.D.,J.W.Short,C.C.Brodersen,T.A.Mecklenburg,D.A.Moles,C.J.Misch,D.L.Cheatham,andJ.F.Karinen. 1976. Acute toxicity and uptake‐depuration studies with Cook Inlet crude oil,


95

PrudhoeBaycrudeoil,No.2fueloilandseveralsubarcticmarineorganisms.Natl.Mar.Fish.Serv.,Proc.Rep.,May1976.

Rice, S.D., J.W.Short, and J.F. Karinen. 1976. Toxicity of Cook Inlet crude oil andNo. 2 fuel oil toseveral Alaskan marine fishes and invertebrates. In ERDA, EPA, ELM, and API, Sources,Effects and Sinks ofHydrocarbons in theAquatic Environment, Proceedings, pp. 395‐406.Washington,D.C.,AmericanInstituteofBiologicalSciences,578p.

Short, J.W., S.D. Rice, and D.L. Cheatham. 1976. Comparison of two methods for oil and greasedetermination.InAssessmentoftheArcticMarineEnvironment:Selectedtopics(EditedbyD.W.HoodandD.C.Burrell).InstituteofMarineScience,UniversityofAlaska,Fairbanks.

Rice, S.D., D.A. Moles, and J.W. Short. 1975. The effect of Prudhoe Bay crude oil on survival andgrowthofeggs,alevins, and fryofpinksalmonOncorhynchusgorbuscha. InProceedingsofthe 1975 Conference on Prevention and Control of Oil Pollution, pp. 503‐507. AmericanPetroleumInstitute,EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,andU.S.CoastGuard,SanFrancisco.

MonitoringReports

Short, J.W.,Holland,L.G., Larsen,M.L.,Moles,A.,Rice, S.D. 2006. IdentificationofPAHdischarginginto Eyak Lake from stormwater drains. Final Report to Copper RiverWatershed Project,P.O.Box1430,Cordova,Alaska,26p.

Short J, Rice J, Moles A, Helton D. (2005) Results of the M/V Kuroshima oil spill shellfish tissueanalysis1999,2000&2004.FinalReporttotheM/VKuroshimaTrusteeCouncil.7pp.

Carls MG, Short JW, Payne J, Larsen M, Lunasin J, Holland L, Rice SD. 2005. Accumulation ofpolycyclicaromatichydrocarbonsbyNeocalanuscopepodsinPortValdez,Alaska(PWSRCACContract 956‐04‐01). Final Report to Prince William Sound Regional Citizens' AdvisoryCouncil,Anchorage,Alaska.46pp.

Payne JR, Driskell WB, Short JW. 2005. Prince William Sound RCAC Long Term EnvironmentalMonitoringProgram,2003‐2004FinalReport(PWSRCACContract951.04.01).FinalReporttoPrinceWilliamSoundRegionalCitizens'AdvisoryCouncil,Anchorage,Alaska.123pp.

Payne, J.R.,Driskell,W.B.andJ.W.Short.2003.PrinceWilliamSoundRegionalCitizens'AdvisoryCouncil Long‐Term Environmental Monitoring Program: 2002‐2003 LTEMP MonitoringReport(PWSRCACContractNo.951.03.1).3709SpenardRoad,Anchorage,Alaska99503.

Short,J.andP.Harris.2002.Pristanemonitoringinmusselsandpredatorsofjuvenilepinksalmon&herring, Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Restoration Project Annual Report (Restoration Project01195),AukeBayLaboratory,Juneau,Alaska.


96

Salazar, M, Salazar, S., Payne, J. and Short, J. 2002. Final report, 2001 Port Valdez integratedmonitoring.PrinceWilliamSoundRegionalCitizens'AdvisoryCouncil.3709SpenardRoad,Anchorage,Alaska99503.






CongressionalTestimony

Short, J. W. June 9, 2010. Written Testimony Submitted to the United States House ofRepresentatives, Committee on Science and Technology Subcommittee on Energy andEnvironment“DelugeofOilHighlightsResearchandTechnologyNeedsforOilRecoveryandEffectiveCleanupofOilSpills”

Short, J.W. November 19, 2009.Written Testimony Submitted to the Committee on Energy andNatural Resources “Environmental Stewardship as it Relates to Offshore Oil and GasDevelopment”

Short, J. W. March 24, 2009. Written Testimony Submitted to the United States House ofRepresentatives, Committee on Natural Resources, Joint Subcommittee on Energy andMineral Resources and Subcommittee on Insular Affairs, Oceans and Wildlife “EnergyDevelopmentontheOuterContinentalShelfandtheFutureofourOceans”

AlaskaStateLegislatureTestimony

Short,J.W.September21,2010WrittenTestimonySubmittedtotheStateofAlaska,SenateNaturalResourcesCommittee“Alaska’sOilSpillPreparednessandResponseCapability”

98

Appendix3

Peer Review of Experimental Studies of the Effects of VolatilityLosses on the Density of Diluted Bitumen Relied on by TransMountain

1. Recognition that evaporative loss alonemay return the bitumen in dilutedbitumentonearitsoriginaldensity,whichmaybehighenoughtosubmergeinfresh,brackishorinextremecasesevenfull‐strengthseawater,ledtofivestudiesaimedatcharacterizingtheeffectsoftemperatureandwindspeedonthe rate of mass lost by evaporation of volatile components from dilutedbitumen.Unfortunately,allfiveofthesestudiesinvolvedunrealisticexposureconditions that led to substantial overestimation of the time required forevaporationtoincreasethedensityofdilutedbitumenenoughtosubmergeinwater.Theseunrealisticexposureconditionsweremostlikelyadoptedonthe basis of a flawed Environment Canada study that was aimed atdetermining the most important factors affecting the rate of evaporativelossesofmassfromcrudeoils.126

2. Basedonanextensiveseriesofexperiments,EnvironmentCanadaconcludedthat the effect of temperature far exceeded other factors including windspeed,oilslickthickness,andtherelativesurfacearea(i.e.,surfaceareaperunitvolume)oftheoil.Consequently,EnvironmentCanadaproposedthatthetime required for evaporative losses of mass from unrealistically thick127(~10mm)oilfilmscouldberelatedtotemperaturethroughrelationshipsoftheform:

%Ev=(A+BT)lnt Eq1

where %Ev is the percent of total mass lost by evaporation, T is the ambient temperature in degrees Celsius, ln t is the natural logarithm of time for evaporation in minutes, and A and B are constants that depend on the particular oil involved.128 However, a recent field study has conclusively demonstrated that these equations seriously overestimate the time required for evaporative losses during actual oil spills, because wind speed, oil film thickness, and relative

126Fingas MV (2004) Modeling evaporation using models that are not boundary‐layer regulated.JournalofHazardousMaterials107:27‐36.

127Oilslickthicknessesimmediatelyfollowingaccidentaldischargestypicallyrangefrom0.010–0.5mm(Gros2014).Theinitialthicknessofanun‐weathereddilutedbitumensamplewas0.4mmonceitstoppedspreadingafteradditiontothesurfaceofwater(Stronach2013).

128Fingas2004

FateandEffectofOilSpillsfromtheTransMountainExpansionProjectinBurrardInletandtheFraserRiverEstuaryAppendix3:PeerReviewofExperimentalStudiesoftheEffectsofVolatilityLossesontheDensityofDilutedBitumenReliedonbyTransMountain

99

surface area are important factors affecting the evaporation rate of volatile oil components.129

3. Extensive monitoring of an experimental oil spill in the North Sea during2009showedthatmasslossespredictedtorequiremorethanonedaybyEq1actuallyoccurredwithinonehour.130Henceestimatesofthetimerequiredfor evaporative losses of mass that are based on experiments involvingunrealisticallythickoilfilmsandthatconsideronlytemperatureusingEq1mustbeinterpretedwithconsiderablecaution,recognizingthatevaporativeloss rates are almost certain to be much faster during actual oil spills.Recognitionof thesepossibilities ledto fivestudiesaimedatcharacterizingthe effects of temperature and wind speed on the rate of mass lost byevaporationofvolatilecomponentsfromdilutedbitumen.Unfortunately,allfive of these studies involved serious flaws that led to substantialoverestimationof thetimerequired forevaporationto increasethedensityofdilutedbitumenenoughtosink inwater.Thesestudiesandtheirdefectsaresummarizedbelow.

4. A recent study by Environment Canada131reported results of weatheringexperimentsontwodilutedbitumenproducts,AccessWesternBlend(AWB)andColdLakeBitumen(CLB),chosenbecausetheyarelikelytoaccountforthe greatest proportion of products shipped through the proposed TransMountain pipeline. Evaporative removal of the diluent, about 25% of thediluted bitumenmass, increased the density of AWB from 925.3 kg/m3 to1,021.1 kg/m3 (at 15 °C), and of CLB from 924.9 kg/m3 to 1,008.5 kg/m3,confirming thatprior todilutionwithgascondensate, thebitumen in theseproductsisitselfmoredensethanfreshwaterorbrackishseawater.Also,theviscosity of the diluted bitumen increased by factors near 100,000,confirming that evaporative losses of the volatile diluent componentsdramaticallyincreaseviscosity.

5. Separate experiments reported in the same study132that were aimed atdocumentingthetimerequiredtoevaporatevolatilecomponentsfromthick

129Gros 2014; Polaris Applied Sciences, Inc., (2013) A comparison of the properties of dilutedbitumen crudes with other oils. Trans Mountain application atV8C_TR_8C_12_TR_S8_COMPAR_BITUMEN_OTHER_OILS_‐_A3S5G7.

130Ibid.

131EnvironmentCanadaetal.(2013).

132Ibid.


100

films of diluted bitumen under in the absence of wind133found that theequation134relating the percent of mass lost by evaporation to ambienttemperatureandtimeforAWBwasgivenas:

%Ev=(1.72+0.045T)lnt Eq2

andforCLBas:

%Ev=(1.51+0.045T)lnt Eq3

6. However,theauthorsnotedthattheseequationsunderestimatedtheactualmasslostoverthefirst50hoursoftheseexperiments,andoverestimatedthemass lost afterward. These discrepancies reflect the fact that equations ofthe formofEq1weredevelopedbasedonexperimentswithnormal crudeoilsandhencewereintendedforapplicationtothem,butincontrast,dilutedbitumen is actually a mixture of a very volatile component (i.e., gascondensate)andwhatisineffectaveryweatheredcrudeoil(i.e.,bitumen).Recognizingthesedifferences,theauthorsofthisstudyconcludedthatthese“Simplefitmodelsmaynotbeveryusefulfordilutedbitumen,particularlyintheearlystagesofaspill.”135Hence,althoughtheestimatedtimerequiredforevaporationtoremove25%ofthemassfromAWBbasedonEq2nearly24days, comparisonof resultsbasedonEq1and ratesof evaporationduringthe2009experimental oil spill in theNorth Sea136suggest that such lossesmight actually occur within one day. Comparison of the density of 25%weatheredAWB(~1,021kg/m3)withtheminimumsurfacewaterdensitiesinEnglishBayandBurrardInlet(seeTable1inthemaintextofthisreport)indicates that AWB diluted bitumen discharged into these waters mightsubmergebeneaththesurfaceatanytimeoftheyear,butespeciallyduringspring and summer when surface waters are less brackish because ofincreasedflowoftheFraserRiver.

133These conditions reflect the incorrect assumptions that oil film thickness and wind speed arenegligiblefactors.

134NotethattheseequationsarepresentedincorrectlyintheEnvironmentCanadaetal.(2013)studyas%EV=(1.72–0.045T)lntand%Ev=(1.51–0.045T)lnt.Subtractionofthe“0.045T”termgivesimplausibleresults,andadditionofthistermisindictedintheoriginalreferencefortheseequations(i.e.Fingas2004).

135Ibid.

136Gros2014.


101

7. Aseparatestudy137recentlyreporteddirectobservationofdilutedbitumensubmerged in brackish water that resulted from evaporative weathering.PortionsofAWBdilutedbitumensubmergedinbrackish(<17‰)seawaterat about 20 °C following exposure of an 8 mm thick layer of the dilutedbitumen to an average wind speed of 2.5m/s for 6 days. These exposureconditions implythesubmergedAWBdilutedbitumenreachedadensityofabout 1,010 kg/m3, the density of 16‰ seawater at 20 °C138throughevaporativeweathering. The 8mm layerwasmaintained by confining thediluted bitumen within a floating polyvinyl chloride containment barrier.Thisbarrierpreventedthedilutedbitumenfromspreadingtoitsunconfinedequilibriumthickness,likelyontheorderof0.4mm.139Allowingthedilutedbitumen to spread unconfined would have dramatically increased theevaporation rate of the volatile diluent components. 140 Assuming theevaporation rate of a fixed initial volume of diluted bitumen is inverselyproportional with the slick thickness, the time needed for the dilutedbitumentosubmergeinbrackishwaterwoulddecreasefrom6daysforan8mmthickslicktolessthan8hoursfora0.4mmthickslick.

8. A study conducted by Witt O’Briens for Trans Mountain at Gainford, ABduring June 2012 evaluated the changes of chemical composition and ofphysicalpropertiesofAWBandCLBdilutedbitumenexposedtostatic,mild,and moderate weathering conditions.141The composition and physicalproperties of 10.09–13.46 mm oil films were monitored over 10 days attemperaturesrangingfrom10–23°Candsalinitiesrangingfrom20–24‰.Themildweatheringconditionincludedaveragewindsof2.23m/sand2–4cmwaves,whilethemoderateconditionincluded4.5m/swindsand5–7cmwaves. The experiments with AWB and one of the CLB experiments wereconducted inside a covered shed, but the other CLB experiments wereconductedoutside.

9. ThedensityofAWBdilutedbitumenincreasedfrom920.1kg/m3initiallytomaximum values of 1000.0 kg/m3, 1010.0 kg/m3, and 1007.0 kg/m3respectively in the static, mild and moderate weathering experiments.Viscosities increased from 270.5 centistokes (or 249 mPa‐s at ~15 °C) to

137King TL, Robinson B, Boufadel M, Lee K (2014) Flume tank studies to elucidate the fate andbehaviorofdilutedbitumenspilledatsea.MarinePollutionBulletin83:32‐37.

138Pilson(1998)AnIntroductiontotheChemistryoftheSea.PearsonEducation.

139Stronach2013.

140Gros2014.

141WittO’Brien’s2013.


102

severalhundred thousandsof centistokes (ormPa‐s). Similarly, thedensityof CLB diluted bitumen increased from 924.8 kg/m3 initially to maximumvalues of 982.0 kg/m3, 998.9 kg/m3 and 1002.0 kg/m3 respectively in thestatic,mildandmoderateweatheringexperiments.

10. In a separate experiment, CLB diluted bitumen exposed to the mildweathering condition led to a maximum density of 1,008.0 kg/m3. ThedifferenceinmaximumdensitiesattainedbyCLBdilutedbitumenexposedtomildweathering conditions,998.9kg/m3 inone caseand1,008.0kg/m3 inanother, reflects the imprecision in the weathering conditions andmeasurements. Unfortunately, the precision of the measurements in thisstudywaseithernotdeterminedornot reported,making itproblematic todistinguish contributions of measurement errors and variation inexperimental conditions to overall imprecision (i.e., poor reproducibility ofresults).

11. Most of the density increases observed during the Gainford experimentsoccurredwithin the first24hours.Maximumdensitiesoccurredafter8–10days. Insomeexperimentsthedilutedbitumendensityappearedtodeclineafterreachingamaximumbeforeterminationoftheexperimentat10days.Theseapparentdeclinesmostlikelyreflectmeasurementerrors,becausethemorevolatileandsolublecomponentsarestronglycorrelatedinverselywithmolecular weight, so typically oil and diluted bitumen densities increasemonotonically as evaporation and dissolution proceeds. In contrast,increases of viscosity generally persisted throughout the 10 day exposureperiod,althoughthegreatestproportionalincreasesalsooccurredwithinthefirst24hoursoftheexperiments.

12. A study conductedby SLRoss142evaluateddensity changes of dilutedColdLake bitumen (CLB) and diluted MacKay River Heavy (MKH) bitumen atthree weathering states, one of which was un‐weathered. The CLB wasdiluted with gas condensate (i.e., diluted bitumen) whereas the MKH wasdilutedwith synthetic light oil (i.e., synbit).A20mm‐thick layerof dilutedbitumenwasplacedinawindtunneloperatingatawindspeedof3m/sandtemperatureof20C,andsampleswerecollectedinitiallyandafter2and14days.Thedensityofeachsamplewasmeasuredat1Cand15C.

13. TheCLB lost14.28%of the initialmassafter2days,and16.99%after twoweeks,causingthedensitytoincreasefrom936kg/m3initiallyto977kg/m3

142Belore,R.(2010),Propertiesand fateofhydrocarbonsassociatedwithhypotheticalspillsat themarineterminalandintheconfinedchannelassessmentarea—EnbridgeNorthernGatewayProject.TechnicalDataReport,SLRoss,Calgary,Alberta.


103

after two days and 981 kg/m3 after two weeks whenmeasured at 15 C.Densitieswereslightlygreaterwhenmeasuredat1C, increasing from948kg/m3initiallyto987kg/m3aftertwodaysand990kg/m3aftertwoweeks.The dynamic viscosity increased from 368 mPa‐s initially to 9227 mPa‐saftertwodaysand14486mPa‐saftertwoweekswhenmeasuredat15C.

14. The MKH synbit experienced smaller losses of mass during theseexperiments owing to the lower volatility of the synthetic light oil diluent.TheMKH lost8.85%of the initialmassafter2days, and12.87%after twoweeks,causingthedensitytoincreasefrom943kg/m3initiallyto965kg/m3aftertwodaysand970kg/m3aftertwoweekswhenmeasuredat15C.AswithCLB,densitieswereslightlygreaterwhenmeasuredat1C, increasingfrom952kg/m3 initially to970kg/m3after twodaysand977kg/m3aftertwo weeks. The dynamic viscosity increased from 241.9 mPa‐s initially to1377mPa‐saftertwodaysand2573mPa‐saftertwoweekswhenmeasuredat15C.

15. The time required forevaporative lossesofmass is assumed tobedirectlyproportional tooil film thickness in thisstudy.143Theauthorsacknowledgethatthetimerequiredforequivalentchangesin1mm‐thickoilfilmswouldbe about 20 times faster than for the 20mm (= 2 cm) film thickness theyused in their experiments. This implies that the changes in density andviscositytheyobservedat2daysandat2weekswouldoccurwithin2–3hrsand one day respectively. These changes would occur even faster for anunconfined,free‐floatingdilutedbitumenslickhavingathicknessof0.4mm,needingonly1hand7hrespectively.Consequently,althoughthedensitiesdid not approach values (~1,000 kg/m3) that would cause the oils tosubmergeinfreshorbrackishwatersintheseexperiments,theymighthavedonesogivenmoretimeforadditionalevaporationorifthinneroilfilmshadbeenused.

16. Recognizing the limitations and attendant uncertainties imposed by theunrealistically thick oil films used in the SL Ross experiments reported byBelore(2010)144,SLRossconducteda follow‐upstudyofCLBusingamorerealisticoilfilmthicknessnear1mm145.Twoexperimentswererun,onefor120.5hours (5 days) and the other for 311hours (~13 days) using freshwaterat15C,withanoilfilmthicknessof1.15mm,awindspeedof1.5m/sandawatervelocityof0.25m/s.Bothexperimentsincludedanapparatusto

143Ibid.

144Ibid.

145SLRoss2012.


104

agitate the surface of the circulating water by means of cascading water,simulatingeffectsofmildwaveaction.The311hourexperimentincludedanultraviolet (UV) lamp with an irradiance of 15 mW/cm2, which isapproximatelythreetimesthemaximumUVirradianceofnaturalsunlightat45latitude.

17. Oil viscosity increased from ~3,300 mPa‐s initially to more than 190,000mPa‐safter24hoursinbothexperiments.Oilviscositycontinuedincreasingthereafter, exceeding 1,000,000 mPa‐s after 12 days in the secondexperiment.

18. Oil densitiesweremeasured at 20 C instead of at 15 C because the highviscosities ofmany of the oil samples interferedwith the reliability of thedensitymeasurements at the lower temperature.146In the first experiment,the density of CLB increased from 945 kg/m3 initially to 995 kg/m3 after96hours. In thesecondexperiment, thedensity increased to998kg/m3by96hours, and appeared to fluctuatebetweenvaluesof995kg/m3and998kg/m3 thereafter. These fluctuations, especially for samples collect at96hours through140hourswhen theoilviscosity changedrelatively little,providean indicationof theprecisionof themeasurements.Theaverageofthedensitymeasurementsfrom96honwas996.8kg/m3,slightlybelowthedensityoffreshwaterat20C(998kg/m3).

19. Because thedensityofoil increaseswithdecreasing temperature,anddoesso faster in comparison with fresh water, the CLB should have reachedneutral buoyancy at 15 C in the second experiment after about 96hours.Neutralbuoyancymeansthatentrainedoildropletshavenotendencytosinkortofloattothesurface.Infact,entrainedoildropletswereobservedinthewater column of the second experiment after 96hours147, confirming thatevaporativeprocessesalonemightplausiblycauseoil tosubmergebeneaththewatersurfaceduringanoilspillinfreshorbrackishwater,dependingonthe temperature, wind speed, slick thickness and salinity of the receivingwater.HadanunconfinedCLBslickof0.4mmthicknessbeenusedintheseexperiments, neutral buoyancy might have been attained after only~40hours,andevensoonerifhigherwindspeedshadbeenused.

146Ibid. This problem very likely accounts for the relatively poor precision of the densitymeasurements reported in the Belore (2010) study, which used the same method for densitydetermination.

147SLRoss2012.


105

20. Comparison of results from the two SL Ross studies148confirms theimportanceofoilfilmthicknessforestimatingthetimerequiredfordensitychanges of diluted bitumen. In the Belore 2010 study, the density of the20mm‐thickfilmincreasedfrom936kg/m3initiallyto977kg/m3aftertwodays. Comparable changes took only about an hour in the SL Ross 2012study,wheredensityincreasedfrom945kg/m3initiallyto976‐981kg/m3after1–1.5hours149. Theoil density increasesobservedduring the SLRoss2012 studywas about twice as fast aswas anticipated on the basis of theBelore2010study,despitethelowerwindspeedusedfortheSLRoss2012study(1.5m/svs.4.5m/s).Thiscomparisonprovidesdirectconfirmationofthe importance of oil film thickness on the evaporation rate of volatile oilcomponents.Inconsequence,thesimplerelationdevelopedbyEnvironmentCanadatopredictthetimerequiredforevaporativelossestooccur(i.e.,Eq.1above) is not reliable because it drastically overestimates the evaporativelossratesofunconstrainedandhencethin(<1mm)oilfilms.

148Belore2010andSLRoss2012.

149ThehigherinitialandsubsequentdensitiesreportedintheSLRoss2012studycomparedwiththeBelore2010studyresultfrommeasurementofdensitiesat20CintheSLRossstudybutat15Cinthe Belore 2010 study. As with almost all liquids, the density of oil increases as temperaturedecreases.