farmers’$resilience$to$socio/ecological$change$in$central$arizona$ · 2016. 7. 22. ·...

J.C. Bausch1, C. Rubiños1, H. Eakin,1 A. York, 2 R. Aggarwal1 1School of Sustainability, 2School of Human EvoluCon and Social Change

Decision Center for a Desert City, Arizona State University

Are farmers resilient to socio-‐ecological change?

Arizona’s future water resources and water management are likely to be challenged by climate variability, change, and populaCon growth.1,2,3 Nevertheless, it is not clear the extent to which farmers—who consume 70% of the state’s water resources4—are concerned with water scarcity, or perceive themselves capable of responding to hydro-‐climaCc changes.5,6 EffecCve responses depend in part on aspects of cogniCon, aWtudes, and percepCon.7

Methods. Following Marshall and Marshall,8 in an online and mailed survey (n=52) we measured the social resilience of irrigated farmers in Central Arizona (CAZ) through the concepts of occupaConal flexibility, aàchment to place, aWtudes about risk, percepCon of self-‐efficacy, and interest in learning and engagement with knowledge networks. Here, we present select iniCal results of this survey.

Farmers are concerned about water risk

•  58% of respondents believe problems with water availability are likely to manifest Central Arizona sooner rather than later.

•  Despite concern about water risk, they are divided over whether immediate acCon is needed to prepare for climate change impacts.

Farmers expressed strong a=achment to place and community

• Respondents expressed strong commitment to their profession, the region, and the agricultural community.

• 88% believe that farmers must work together to ensure a prosperous future for agriculture.

Farmers appear to manifest characteris?cs of social resilience

•  The majority of respondents are interested in learning, seek advice from neighbors and universiCes, and express strong aàchment to their community. Many demonstrate an entrepreneurial aWtude. They are more concerned about future water risk than we expected.

•  While aàchment to place has been considered a potenCally limiCng factor for adaptaCon, in this case it may signal a willingness of the farm community to grapple with pending challenges associated with climate change.

Our findings indicate that CAZ farmers are capable of responding to new stressors in flexible and entrepreneurial ways. However, farmers may need improved informaCon and targeted support on adaptaCon opCons. Instead of represenCng a barrier to change, place aàchment here may be indicaCve of capacity to invest and innovate in order to stay viable.

Farmers are interested in learning

•  ~66% of respondents are interested in learning about climaCc and hydrological changes and their potenCal impacts on agriculture.

Farmers are uncertain about ability to manage drought

•  75% of respondents reported that uncertainty limits their ability to make long term plans.

•  52% feel unsure that their current strategies for dealing with water challenges will be sufficient in the future.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Being a farmer is a lifestyle – it is not just my job.

I plan to do all I can to con9nue farming in this region.

Helping other farmers in my community is important, even when it means making small sacrifices.

Farmers need to work together to ensure that agriculture has a prosperous future in Arizona.

Strongly disagree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

I always assume the worst in terms of water availability when I make land management decisions.

I do not believe that future water resource availability will be any different from my past experience.

Immediate ac9on is needed to prepare for the impact of changing climate condi9ons on agriculture.

Problems in water availability are unlikely to manifest in this region for some 9me.

Strongly disagree Disagree Not sure Agree Strongly agree

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

If water availability changes, there is a lot that I can do to respond to the impacts.

My current approach for dealing with water challenges will be sufficient for dealing with future

water challenges.

I have sufficient information to make plans concerning my water use into the future.

I can’t plan more than a few years ahead, things are too uncertain.


Farmers’ Resilience to Socio-‐Ecological Change in Central Arizona

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

I am interested in learning about hydrological changes and their poten9al impacts on agriculture.

I am interested in learning about clima9c changes and their poten9al impacts on agriculture.


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

I believe that opportunity comes from taking calculated risks.

I like to experiment with new approaches to managing my farm enterprise.

I like to experiment with new ways to irrigate.


References 1Gober, P., & Kirkwood, C. W. (2010). Vulnerability assessment of climate-‐induced water shortage in Phoenix. PNAS, 107(50), 21295-‐21299. 2Hoerling, M., & Eischeid, J. (2007). Past Peak Water in the Southwest. Southwest Hydrology, 2007(January/February), 18-‐19, 35. 3MacDonald, G. M. (2010). Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest. PNAS, 107(50), 21256-‐21262. 4 Gammage, G., SCgler, M., Daugherty, D., Clark-‐Johnson, S., & Hart, W. (2011). Watering the Sun Corridor: Managing Choices in Arizona's Megapolitan Area: Morrison Ins9tute for Public Policy, Arizona State University. 5Coles, A. R., & Sco`, C. A. (2009). Vulnerability and adaptaCon to climate change and variability in semi-‐arid rural southeastern Arizona. Natural Resource Forum, 33(2009), 297-‐309. 6Eakin, H., & Conley, J. (2002). Climate variability and the vulnerability of ranching in southeastern Arizona: a pilot study. Climate Research, 21, 271-‐281. 7 Grothmann, T., & Pa`, A. (2005). AdapCve capacity and human cogniCon: The process of individual adaptaCon to climate change. Global Environmental Change, 15(2005), 199-‐213. 8 Marshall, N. A., & Marshall, P. A. (2007). Conceptualizing and OperaConalizing Social Resilience within Commercial Fisheries in Northern Australia. Ecology and Society, 12(1), 14.

Farmers are experimental

•  53% and 64% of respondents are interested in experimenCng with irrigaCon and farm management pracCces, respecCvely.

•  73% see opportunity as coming from taking calculated risks.

This material is based upon work supported by the NaConal Science FoundaCon (NSF) under Grant SES-‐ 0951366, Decision Center for a Desert City II: Urban Climate AdaptaCon, and by the NaConal Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministraCon (NOAA) Climate Program Office under a Sectoral ApplicaCons Research Program (SARP) grant. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendaCons expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF or NOAA. We thank the survey parCcipants and colleagues M. Anderies, A. Mostafa, H. Paul, S. Smith-‐Heisters, and S. Waters. Acknowledgements:

farmers’$resilience$to$socio/ecological$change$in$central$arizona$ · 2016. 7. 22. ·...

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