fair taxation in a mobile world - swiss re7e98ea6f-e7b2-4c0f-922a...fair taxation in a mobile world...

Fair Taxation

in a Mobile World

EEAG Report on the European Economy 2020

Torben Andersen,

Giuseppe Bertola,

Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa,

Clemens Fuest,

Harold James,

Jan-Egbert Sturm,

Branko Uroševic

||

Corona

09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 2

|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 3

Number of Corona-Infected Patients Worldwide

Source: CSSE at Johns Hopkins University

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

22.01 25.01 28.01 31.01 03.02 06.02 09.02 12.02 15.02 18.02 21.02 24.02 27.02 01.03 04.03 07.03

Asia Europe Rest

Total

|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 4

Worldwide Corona Cases by Status

& Implied Mortality Rate


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

22.01 25.01 28.01 31.01 03.02 06.02 09.02 12.02 15.02 18.02 21.02 24.02 27.02 01.03 04.03 07.03

Active Deaths Recovered Mortality rate Recovery rate

Total

|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 5

Worldwide Deaths from Coronavirus


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

22.01 25.01 28.01 31.01 03.02 06.02 09.02 12.02 15.02 18.02 21.02 24.02 27.02 01.03 04.03 07.03

Total

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Change


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Global EPU Index

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) is calculated as the GDP-weighted average of monthly EPU

index values for the United States, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain,France, Netherlands, Russia, India, China, South Korea, Japan, Ireland and Australia using GDP data incurrent prices from the IMF World Economic OutlookDatabase.Source: Baker et al. (2016), www.policyuncertainty. com; OECD; last accessedon 8 March 2020.

Change over previous year's quarter in %

© CESifo

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Investment Growth in the OECD

Index (2010 = 100)

Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the OECD

Euro area crisis

Europeanimmigration

crisis

Brexit vote US elections Trade war,

Brexit

||

The Car Industry



-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Vehicles sales

Industrial production

Source: Wards Intelligence; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; last accessed on 8 March 2020; EEAG Calculations

Change over previous year's 3 -month moving average in %

© CESifo

World Growth in Vehicles Sales and Industrial Productiona

a Both variables are measured as 3month moving averages before calculating growth rates.

09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF

International Trade

9

|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF

World Trade

Quellen: OECD/CPB 10

71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-05 06-10 11-15 16-20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25% (Q-o-Q, annualised)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Index (2010=100)

2.2%

6.6%

|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF

Industrial Production and Trade in the World

Source: CPB

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Developed world Developing and emerging world

Index (2012=100)

11

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

World trade Industrial production in the world

Index (2012=100)


2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Growth in real industrial production

Source: Eurostat; OECD; National Statistics; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; last accessed on 8 March 2020; EEAG calculations.

Change over previous year's quarter in %

© CESifo

World Economic Growtha and Growth in Industrial Production

Change over previous year's month in %

a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) weighted aggregate year-over-year real GDP growth rate.

Real GDP growth

||

World Economic Outlook


||

76

80

84

88

92

96

100

104

108

76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108

Leadin

g G

lobal B

aro

mete

r (I

ndex)

Coincident Global Barometer (Index)

Recovery

CoolingEconomic low

Economic high

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

0 1 2 3 4 months

Index

Coincident Global Barometer


Global Economic Barometers

Source: KOF/FGV

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5Change

Embargo: 10 March 2020, 14:00 CET

CoronaGreat Recession

Jan. 2020Jan. 2020

Jan. 2019

Jan. 2016

Jan. 2017

Jan. 2018

Mar. 2020


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Deposit rate (ECB, euro area) Bank rate (BoE, United Kingdom)

Target policy rate (BoJ, Japan) Federal target rate (Fed, United States)

Source: European Central Bank; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Bank of England; Bank of Japan; last accessed on 8 March 2020.

Central Bank Interest Rates

%

© CESifo


gu

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

United Kingdom United States Euro area Japan China

The synthetic euro area benchmark bond refers to the weighted average yield of the benchmark bond series

from each Economic and Monetary Union member.

Source: Datastream; last accessed on 8 March 2020.

10-Year Government Bond Yields

%

© CESifo


-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Inflation in the world

Inflation in the euro area

Forecast based on the assumption that oil prices remain steady from January 2020 onwards.Source: Eurostat; National Statistics; Energy Information Administration;

last accessed on 9 March 2020; EEAG calculations.

%

© CESifo

Inflation in the World and Oil Price MovementsChange over previous year's month in %

Forecastperiod

%

Oil price changes in US dollars

Fair Taxation

in a Mobile World

EEAG Report on the European Economy 2020

Torben Andersen,

Giuseppe Bertola,

Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa,

Clemens Fuest,

Harold James,

Jan-Egbert Sturm,

Branko Uroševic


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Taxes/Subsidies, Corrections Consumer-oriented services

Business-oriented services Trade & GastronomyConstruction Industry

GDP

a Gross domestic product at market prices (prices of the previous year). Annual percentage change and

growth contributions.

Source: OECD; last accessed on 2 February 2020; EEAG calculations.

Sector Contributions to GDP Growtha in the Euro Area

© CESifo

Change over previous year's quarter in %, percentage points


-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Construction Consumers Industry Retail trade Services

? 3-month averages of arithmetic means of selected (seasonally adjusted) balances on business andconsumer tendency survey questions. Balances are the differences between the percentages of positiveand negative replies. These are subsequently normalized to have an average of 0 and variance of 1 for theperiod from 1985 onward.Source: European Commission; last accessed on 8 March 2020; EEAG calculations.

Confidence Indicatorsª for Different Sectors in the Euro Area

Standardized balance

© CESifo


80

90

100

110

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Asia and Pacific Europe Western Hemisphere World

3-month moving averages of indicators with an in -sample average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.Source: KOF/FGV.

Global Economic BarometerCoincident composite indicator

© CESifo

Index

Embargo: 10 March 2020, 14:00 CET


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

DJ Industrial Average FTSE 100

Euro STOXX 50 Nikkei 225

Shanghai SE Composite

Source: Datastream; last accessed on 8 March 2020.

Developments in International Stock Markets from a Euro Area Perspective

Index (2010 = 100)

© CESifo

Stock market indices outside the euro area are first converted into euros.

Basic Copyright Notice & Disclaimer

©2020 This presentation is copyright protected. All rights reserved. You may download or print out a hard copy for your private or internal use. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivatives of this presentation without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

This presentation is for information purposes only and contains non-binding indications. Any opinions or views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Swiss Re. Swiss Re makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, comprehensiveness, timeliness or suitability of this presentation for a particular purpose. Anyone shall at its own risk interpret and employ this presentation without relying on it in isolation. In no event will Swiss Re be liable for any loss or damages of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages, arising out of or in connection with the use of this presentation.

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