Central West and Orana Region – What’s Happening with Housing Supply and does it match Demand?The majority of households in the Central West and Orana are lone person or couple households, yet the housing stock is overwhelmingly detached homes with three or four bedrooms. This housing was built at a time when families were the predominant household type. Lone person or couple only households are the household types which are forecast to be the fastest growing in the Central West and Orana region to 2036. Generally the region has insufficient diversity in housing type or bedroom mix and the mismatch will worsen unless proactive measures are taken to increase the supply of smaller dwellings.

Dwelling Type At the 2016 Census there were 115,539 dwellings in the Central West and Orana

Region, of which 100,501 (or 87.0%) were occupied. At the 2016 Census, the vast majority of occupied dwellings in the Central West

and Orana were separate houses, comprising 81.7% of all occupied dwellings compared with 56.9% on average across Sydney and 82.2% in the Rest of NSW. The proportion of separate houses ranged between 95.3% of occupied dwellings in Cabonne and 82.4% in Lithgow.

The previous graph shows the proportion of households in each of the key dwelling types in the Central West and Orana LGAs and Rest of NSW at the

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2016 Census – note that there is no information on the breakdown of dwelling type for unoccupied dwellings.

A further 5.4% of occupied dwellings are attached houses (compared with 14% in Sydney and 9% in the Rest of NSW) and 4.6% of occupied dwellings are flats (compared with 29% in Sydney and 6.7% in the Rest of NSW).

Bathurst (10.1%), Orange (9.5%), Lithgow (6.6%) and Western Plains Regional (5.9%) had higher proportions of occupied attached housing than the average for the Central West and Orana.

Western Plains Regional (8.3%) had the highest proportion of units in the Central West and Orana and is the only LGA with a higher proportion than the Rest of NSW average of 6.7%. Parkes (5.7%) and Lithgow (5.4%) had the next highest proportions of units in the region.

These figures demonstrate a lack of diversity in dwelling type across the region. According to 2016 Census data, there were 358 households living in caravan,

cabin/ houseboat accommodation in the Central West and Orana. This is down from 695 at the 2006 Census and 517 at the 2011 Census. The graph below shows the change from 2006 to 2016 in the amount of caravan and cabin accommodation in each of the Central West and Orana LGAs.

Caravan or residential parks are one of the few remaining affordable housing options for lower income earners. The loss of this accommodation reduces options for lower income households and reduces flexibility to deal with seasonal workers and changes in mining workforces. Mid-Western Regional (93) had the highest remaining numbers of caravan, cabin/ houseboat dwellings in the region at 2016, followed by Western Plains Regional (59).

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Unoccupied dwellings in the Central West and Orana comprised 13.0% of the total number of dwellings, well above the average of 7.7% for Sydney and just below the average of 13.2% for the Rest of NSW. At the 2016 Census a total of 15,027 dwellings were unoccupied across the region. Coonamble had the highest proportion with 20.8%, followed by Warrumbungle (17.8%), Weddin (16.8%), Warren (16.6%) and Bogan (16.6%). Western Plains Regional had the lowest proportion with 10.8%.

Bedroom Mix The graph below shows the proportion of studio, one, two, three and four or more

bedroom occupied dwellings in the Central West and Orana at the 2016 Census.

The graph clearly demonstrates the dominance of three and four bedroom homes, together comprising 87.7% of all dwellings in the Central West and Orana, compared to 74.4% in Sydney and 85.5% in the Rest of NSW. There is little variation across the region, with the proportion of three and four bedroom homes ranging from 89.7% in Blayney to 82.9% in Weddin.

Separately, four or more bedrooms comprise 45.6% and three bedroom dwellings 42.1% of all homes in the Central West and Orana.

By contrast, studios make up just 0.1% of dwellings; one bedroom homes comprise 1.0% and two bedrooms 9.6% of residential stock on average across the region. Bogan has the highest proportion of studio homes (0.5%),

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Warrumbungle has the highest proportion of one bedroom properties (1.6%) and Weddin has the highest proportion of two bedroom dwellings (13.7%).

Given that lone person and couple only households comprised 52.0% of all households in the Central West and Orana, the fact that studio and one bedroom homes combined comprise just 1.1% of the housing stock shows a significant mismatch between household type and dwelling size and an extraordinary lack of housing choice for smaller households.

The forecast increase in lone person and couple only households as well as older age groups in the region is likely to increase the demand for smaller, more manageable and affordable homes.

Ideally there should be an increase in the number of studio, one and two bedroom dwellings to suit these household types and offer some housing choice. Two bedroom dwellings in particular offer the most flexibility, given they are also suitable for small families.

Tenure At the 2016 Census, 34.0% of Central West and Orana region households owned

their home outright (compared to 27.7% in Sydney and 35.5% in the Rest of NSW); a further 28.6% owned their home with a mortgage in the region (compared to 31.5% in Sydney and 28.6% in the Rest of NSW).

Private renters comprise 22.3% of households (in line with the average of 22.3% in the Rest of NSW and compared to 28.0% in Sydney); while 3.6% of households rent through the state housing authority (4.0% in Sydney, 3.5% in the Rest of NSW) and 0.8% rent through a housing cooperative, church group or not for profit (0.6% in Sydney and 0.7% in the Rest of NSW).

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The graph above shows the proportion of households in each tenure type in each of the Central West and Orana LGAs, the region and Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census. Note SHA refers to the state housing authority.

Between 2011 and 2016, there was a 0.4% decrease in the number of households who owned their home outright (compared to a 2.8% increase in the Rest of NSW) and a 1.4% increase in the number of households who owned their home with a mortgage (compared to 2.0% in the Rest of NSW.)

In addition, over the same period there was a 1.2% increase in the number of households in private rental in the Central West and Orana, compared with a 2.4% increase on average in the Rest of NSW.

The longer term trend in Sydney and NSW has been a decline in the proportion of households owning their home outright and increases in the proportion of households who are purchasing and who rent. So generally the Central West and Orana is in line with this trend, although there is variation between LGAs within the region.

Across the Central West and Orana LGA’s:o Warrumbungle has the highest proportion of households owning their

home outright (42.2%), followed by Cabonne (40.1%) with Orange having the lowest proportion at 29.0%.

o Cabonne has the highest proportion of households with a mortgage (33.3%), followed by Blayney (32.6%) with Coonamble having the lowest proportion (18.2%).

o Orange has the highest proportion of households in the private rental market with 25.9%, followed by Bathurst with 24.8% and Cabonne has the lowest proportion with 16.6%.

The general trend is increasing numbers of households relying on the private rental market as a long term tenure rather than a transitional one between leaving home and buying a home, as housing costs have increased much faster than wages.

It is therefore important to encourage tenure diversity and a range of price points to meet local needs.

Public Housing The table below shows the number of public housing properties in the Central

West and Orana region LGAs as at June 2017. Please note that Census data on public housing is not particularly accurate, as public housing tenure is under reported in the Census. The figures below do not include community housing properties.

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AREAPublic housing stock

Bathurst 608Blayney 59Bogan 47Cabonne 28Coonamble 38Cowra 222Western Plains Regional 805Forbes 201Gilgandra 39Lachlan 60Lithgow 515Mid-Western 55Narromine 81Oberon 27Orange 825Parkes 275Warren 28Warrumbungle 51Weddin 18Total Central West and Orana 3,982Rest of NSW 36,431

The table below shows the expected waiting times for general housing approved social housing applicants (not for priority housing applicants) by bedroom category in the Central West and Orana Region as at 30 June 2019.

Expected Waiting Time

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ALLOCATION ZONE 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed

SO32 BATHURST 5-10 years 5-10 years 2-5 years 5-10 years

SO33 BLAYNEY Up to 2 years 2-5 years 5-10 years Up to 2 years

SO36 CANOWINDRA/CABONNE Up to 2 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

SO38 COOLAH Up to 2 years 10+ years

SO39 COONABARABRAN 5-10 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

SO40 COONAMBLE 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

SO41 COWRA 2-5 years 5-10 years 5-10 years 2-5 years

SO42 DUBBO 2-5 years 5-10 years 5-10 years 5-10 years

SO43 FORBES 2-5 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

SO44 GILGANDRA 2-5 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years

SO45 CONDOBOLIN 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years 5-10 years

SO46 LITHGOW 5-10 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 5-10 years

SO47 MUDGEE 2-5 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

SO48 NARROMINE Up to 2 years 2-5 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years

SO49 OBERON Up to 2 years 5-10 years 2-5 years

SO50 ORANGE 5-10 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

SO51 PARKES 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

SO52 RYLSTONE 5-10 years Up to 2 years

SO54 WARREN 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

SO55 GRENFELL 2-5 years Up to 2 years 10+ years

SO56 WELLINGTON Up to 2 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years 2-5 years

SO57 HILL END

SO58 NYNGAN 2-5 years 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

SO59 BARADINE 2-5 years 5-10 years 10+ years

SO60 BINNAWAY 10+ years

SO61 CARCOAR

SO63 CUMNOCK

SO64 DUNEDOO Up to 2 years 10+ years

SO65 EUGOWRA 10+ years 10+ years

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SO66 GUERIE

SO69 GULARGAMBONE 2-5 years 5-10 years

S070 GULGONG 2-5 years 5-10 years Up to 2 years 5-10 years

SO72 LYNDHURST

SO73 MANDURAMA

SO74 MANILDRA

SO75 MENDOORAN

SO76 MILLTHORPE Up to 2 years 10+ years

SO77 MOLONG Up to 2 years 2-5 years 5-10 years Up to 2 years

SO79 PEAK HILL 5-10 years 5-10 years 10+ years 10+ years

SO80 PORTLAND 2-5 years Up to 2 years

SO81 QUANDIALLA

SO82 STUART TOWN 10+ years

SO83 TOTTENHAM

SO84 TRANGIE 2-5 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years Up to 2 years

SO85 TRUNDLE 10+ years 10+ years

SO86 TULLAMORE

SO87 ULAN

S088 WALLERAWANG 2-5 years 2-5 years 2-5 years

SO90 YEOVAL

Information on Expected Waiting Times for Public Housing is available on the FACS website by region at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/housing/help/applying-assistance/expected-waiting-times

The Gap The Central West and Orana region has experienced an increase in low income

and low income rental households from the 2011 Census. Yet there has been a significant decline in the number of affordable properties in

the private rental market. This has led to a marked increase in the number of low income rental households

in housing stress across the region. Over the last decade, rental price growth in the Central West and Orana region

has been strong and the vacancy rate remains tight. Across the region between

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2006 and 2017 there was a loss of 1,361 affordable rental properties, representing a decline of 64.5%. The largest numerical losses occurred in Western Plains Regional, Bathurst and Orange.

There is a growing gap between the increasing number of low income rental households and the declining number of properties affordable for rental by low income households in the Central West and Orana, as demonstrated in the graph below. The graph compares the number of renters on low incomes with the number of new bonds lodged that were affordable to rent for low income households at different periods between 2006 and 2017.

The significant increase in the number of low and very low income households in rental stress in the region between 2011 and 2016 implies strong demand for affordable housing.

Older age cohorts are forecast to increase the fastest to 2036 in the Central West and Orana and DPIE also predict that lone person and couple only households will grow fastest.

There is already a significant mismatch between household type and bedroom number across all the region. With an increase in smaller households, this disparity will only worsen unless proactive measures are taken to increase the supply of studio, one and two bedroom homes. This will enable some measure of choice to smaller households and give older residents some options to downsize.

Given the current overwhelming supply of three and four bedrooms, strong incentives/requirements would need to be put in place to ensure a better balance and more diversity to meet housing need.

The graph below compares the number of smaller household types - lone person and couple only – with the amount of studio and one bedroom accommodation available. It is clear that if smaller households wished to live in smaller housing, they have very little opportunity to do so. While 52.2% of households in the Central West and Orana are lone person or couple, only 1.1% of dwelling stock is studio or one bedroom.

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This mismatch can impact on affordability, with smaller households required to consume more housing than they need because of lack of choice.

Secondary dwellings suit a range of groups including small households, young people, frail aged and people with disability needing support from family. They may be readily encouraged on larger lots with reasonable access to centres providing a range of services and facilities.

New generation boarding houses would also help fulfil some of this demand – particularly as they cannot be subdivided and must provide private rental accommodation. Where they are developed by community housing providers they will provide affordable rental for lower income earners. Note that the NSW Community Housing Industry Association has an Affordable Housing Tool Kit to help deal with community resistance to affordable housing available on their website. They also have a couple of excellent vimeos showcasing new generation boarding house developments and their tenants.

This type of accommodation is suitable for single people and also couples, for key workers and students. It also has potential to assist in providing accommodation/meeting additional housing demand for seasonal workers and mine workers.

The next graph compares larger household types – couple family with children, one parent family and group households – with the amount of three and four or more bedroom accommodation available. It is clear that there is a significant oversupply of larger dwellings, by comparison with the household types which might need large homes.

This mismatch will be exacerbated by the forecast increase in smaller households and by the continued addition of bedrooms to existing dwellings. Additions of bedrooms to existing stock has a significant impact on bedroom mix across LGAs and the region.

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The high proportion of lone person and couple only households further suggests it is important to continue to encourage provision of one and two bedroom stock, to maintain a balance to meet local need, particularly where there are higher proportions of seniors and frail aged. This will give older residents opportunity to downsize into more manageable and appropriate homes

Who needs affordable housing A wide range of people need affordable housing. Single income earners who fall

into the low income category include aged care and disability workers, retail sales assistants, production workers, receptionists and early career child care workers. People working in accommodation and food services comprise around 8% of the workforce nationally (6.7% in the Central West and Orana) and are amongst the lowest paid workers. Similarly retail trade employs 9.8% of workers in the region.

Given the extent of drought and bushfires, many employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing have been struggling financially. The Australian Institute of Family Studies undertook a significant Regional and Rural Families Survey and made a submission to the Productivity Commission’s Inquiry into Government Drought Support. The submission1 found:

o “As would be expected, the largest impacts of drought appeared to be economic, with large effects on household income, the experience of financial hardship and deterioration in household financial position” and

o “Importantly, there was also evidence that drought had a negative impact upon farm workers and on people who were employed in rural areas but not in agriculture. The effects for those who were employed but not in agriculture were largely financial, with a negative and statistically significant impact upon household income and a higher likelihood of

1 Social and economic impacts of drought on farm families and rural communities. Submission to the Productivity Commission’s Inquiry into Government Drought Support. Prepared by Ben Edwards, Matthew Gray and Boyd Hunter, Australian Institute of Family Studies.

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saying that the financial position of their household had become worse over the last 3 years.” (p5)

Single income households in particular are less able to compete in the housing market.

Increasing numbers of older single women are homeless or at risk of homelessness due to the lack of available affordable rental housing.

Aboriginal residents are strongly over represented in the homeless population in the region.

Partnering or collaborating with community housing providers is one effective way to meet some of the local need for appropriate affordable housing. Community housing providers are not for profit owners, managers and developers of affordable rental housing for lower income households and residents with specific housing needs. They work with partners, investors and government to provide housing and deliver support for tenants. For more information about community housing providers, see the NSW Community Housing Industry Association website.

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More information on Expected Waiting Times for Public Housing is available on the Housing NSW website by region at:

http://www.housingpathways.nsw.gov.au/How+to+Apply/Expected+Waiting+Times/

Additional data on social housing delivery is available on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/statistics/social-housing-delivery

More information about community housing providers is available on the NSW CHIA (Community Housing Industry Association) website, including their affordable housing tool kit. The Tool Kit is based on extensive research about reasons for community resistance to affordable housing, and effective ways of building support for affordable housing:

https://nswfha.wpengine.com/lb/toolkits/ahtk/toolkit/

The NSW CHIA 2018 community housing state of the industry report is also available:

http://communityhousing.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/StateoftheIndustry-web.pdf

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