extreme space weather during quiet solar conditions
TRANSCRIPT
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Keith Groves and Charles CarranoBoston College
Massachusetts, USA
UN-ISWI Workshop on Space Weather: Science and ApplicationsVikram Sarabhai Space Centre of the Indian Space Research Organization
2 - 3 November 2021
Extreme Space Weather During Quiet Solar Conditions: Dynamics of the
Low-Latitude Ionosphere
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• Instabilities are driven by the action of the neutral wind, electron density gradients at sunset and the horizontal magnetic field at the equator
• The processes are actually suppressed during magnetic storms• We care because the irregularities cause strong scintillation of radio waves
critical to space-based communications and navigation systems
Overview
• Most space weather impacts are driven by impulsive energetic events on the sun
• However, at low latitudes, the strongest electron densities irregularities in the ionosphere form routinely due to internal ionosphere-thermosphere coupling with no solar excitation
PRN 7
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Disturbed Ionospheric Regions andSystems Affected by Scintillation
SATCOM
AURORAL IRREGULARITIES
GPS
PLASMA BUBBLES
GPS SATCOM
MAGNETICEQUATOR
DAY NIGHT
EQUATORIAL F LAYERANOMALIES
POLAR CAPPATCHES
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Global Morphology
[After Basu, et al., 2005] 4
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What Are Equatorial Dynamics?Formation of Anomaly Region
Anomaly crests are areas of maximum F-region ionization density off equator
(View looking east)
• Presence of anomaly crests strengthens off-equator scintillations• State of anomaly formation is indicative of equatorial dynamics
• Daytime eastward electric field (E) drives plasma “up” (E ´ B)
• Plasma moves toward crests (g|| ,Ñ||P||)
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Equatorial scintillation occurs because plasma disturbances readily form with horizontal magnetic field
• Plasma moves easily along field lines, which act as conductors
• Horizontal field lines support plasma against gravity– unstable configuration
• E-region “shorts out” electrodynamic instability during the day
Magnetic (Dip) Equator
MagneticField Lines
Unstable Plasma
Earth
E Region
Daytime“Shorting”
F Region
Why Do Disturbances Form?Unique Equatorial Magnetic Field Geometry
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Stable Plasma
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HeavyFluid
LightFluid
View along bottomside of ionosphere(E-W section, looking N from equator)
• (a) Bottomside unstable to perturbations (density gradient against gravity)
• (b) Analogy with fluid Rayleigh-Taylor instability
• Perturbations start at large scales (100s km)
• Cascade to smaller scales (200 km to 30 cm)
(b)
(a)
from Kelley [1989]
What Is Instability Process?Basic Plasma Instability
Plasma supported by horizontal field lines against
gravity is unstable
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• The linear growth rate of the Rayleigh Taylor Instability (RTI) does not depend on a strong solar driver:
• After sunset the first term rapidly approaches unity when the terminator is aligned with the magnetic flux tube (E-region dark on both ends of field line)
• The 2nd term becomes the primary driver in most cases; it gets a boost near sunset due to the zonal density gradient imposed by the solar terminator
• All terms can play a role depending on conditions; longitudinal differences in activity may provide important insights into the relative importance
What Controls the Instability Onset?
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21F
n effF E
g NUB N h
gn
´ ¶é ù» + +ê ú+ ¶ë ûS
S SE B
F-region &E-regionconductivity
verticalplasma
drift
horizontalneutral
wind
ion-neutralcollision
frequency
verticaldensitygradient
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3D Model Realizations of BubblesNonlinear fluid calculations of fully developed instability
• Full fluid treatment simulations at scintillation-scale spatial resolution (~500 m)9
Yokoyama & Shinagawa2014
Rino et al., 2018
West East
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6300Å All-sky Imagery
Turbulent Depletions
GPS SATS
Scintillating GPS SATS
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ALTAIR Incoherent Scatter Radar Scan27 Sep 2008 11:22 UT
From J. M. Retterer
Tilted bubble features
Solar Minimum Conditions
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ALTAIR Coherent Scatter Radar Scan27 Sep 2008 10:49 UT
From J. M. Retterer
Meter-scale turbulent regions
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Campaign Summary29 APRIL 2009 – Day 119
Perp-B Scan
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Campaign Summary21 APRIL 2009 – Day 111
Perp-B Scan
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Campaign Summary25 APRIL 2009 – Day 115
Perp-B Scan
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How Routinely Occurring are the Instabilities?DMSP Observations Solar Cycle 23
• Peak occurrence rates ≥ 50% were observed during active periods in theAmerican-African longitude sectors
• This sensor only samples bubbles higher than ~825 km (underestimates actualoccurrence percentage by as much as 50%); bubble height is a function oflongitude—detection rates outside the American sector will be less accurate
• During solar minimum very low detection rates were observed due to acombination of lower bubble occurrence and lower bubble altitudes.
1999-2002
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Gentile et al. (2006).
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Scintillation Physics Simple Picture
• Phase variations on wavefront cause diffraction pattern on ground• A phase changes of ~ p radians (i.e., 0.6 TEC units) required for total
destructive interference• But the variations must occur over limited spatial scale (Fresnel zone)
FROM SATELLITE
IONOSPHERE
EARTH’S SURFACE
VDRIFT
ΔNe
Radio WaveInterference Pattern
!"#
dj
pj
pt
fNcrcfR
dzzNN
fNcrcR
tote
etot
toted
-=
=
+=
ò/2
)(
2/ 2
Phase change due to ionized layer
radians 5 TEC´»dj
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GPS Signal Fluctuations Caused by Ionospheric Scintillation
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S4: normalizedst. dev. ofintensity
sf : st. dev. of phase
Intensity fluctuations reduce signal-to-noise in GNSS receiver
Phase variations stress GNSS signal tracking loops
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GPS Positioning Errors During Solar Max
Scintillation can cause rapid fluctuations in GPS position fixTypical night from field experiments during solar maximum
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Summary
• Instabilities occur routinely at low magnetic latitudes affecting nearly ½ the earth’s surface in the absence of eruptive solar events and magnetic storms
• The instabilities produce small-scale irregularities that can generate strong scintillation affecting frequencies from HF to L-band (solar maximum)
• Numerous scintillation-induced GNSS performance impacts have been observed and documented during solar maximum periods
• Although the instabilities occur routinely and the source mechanisms and evolution are largely understood, the ability to make nightly forecasts of such activity more than ~2 hrs in advance remains elusive
• While some relatively robust physical models exist, our ability to specify the initial state of the ionosphere/thermosphere is inadequate—we simply cannot determine the ionized and neutral atmospheres’ densities and drifts with sufficient resolution and coverage to give the models a chance
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Thank you for your attention!
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