extreme events in a warming world - changing …...extreme events in a warming world april 2014...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Extreme Events in a Warming World
April 2014Martin Hoerling, NOAA
![Page 2: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1. What is Extreme Weather?
![Page 3: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of Earth’s Atmospheric Circulation
![Page 4: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Extreme Weather is not Necessarily the Same as Extreme Events
![Page 5: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
2. What is an Extreme Event?
![Page 6: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
NOAA uses a broad definition
“Extreme events are those that rarely occur at a given location or have significant impacts on society or ecosystems.”
What are ‘extreme events’?
6
Meteorologically RareAND/OR
High Impact
![Page 7: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Extreme Values (or Events)An extreme value (or event) can be thought of as the smallest or the largest
value in a sample of observations
There is great interest to know if, and by how much, the probabilityof extreme values (or events) is changing over time.
![Page 8: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
3. Why is it important to understand extreme events and their change?
![Page 9: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
The Nation Is Conscious of Extreme Events because of Impacts
Drought and Heatwaves
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
Winter Storms and Crop Freezes
Flooding Wildfires Severe Local Storms
Figures: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
U.S. Billion‐Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: 1980 – 2011
![Page 10: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
4. How Do We Know if Extremes are Changing?
![Page 12: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• NOAA archives the nation’s climate data and information about observed extremes at the National Climatic Data Center. – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate‐information/extreme‐events
• Modeling can also tell us about changes we expect in the future.
Observational Record
12
![Page 13: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Extreme Values of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
![Page 14: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Extreme Heat Content of the World Oceans
![Page 15: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Extreme Values for Ocean Acidity~1/3 of emitted carbon dioxide dissolves in the oceans
(pH less than 7 is Considered “acidic”)
![Page 16: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Extreme Values of the Global Mean Surface Temperature
![Page 17: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
An Extreme Value of Arctic Sea Ice Extent
![Page 18: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
5. How Do We Determine The Effect of Human Influences on Climate and Extremes?
![Page 19: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Simulated Global Temperature with and without Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Forcing
![Page 20: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
6. Are extreme events changing over time, and if so why?
20
![Page 21: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
IPCC AR5 WGI Chapter 2•“Overall, the most robust global changes in climate extremes are seen in measures of daily temperature, including to some extent, heat waves. Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability”
•"There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid‐20th century”
Extremes & Climate in Context
21
![Page 22: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
2013 IPCC AR5: Synthesis on How Extreme Events Have Changed, and Will Change
![Page 23: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
7. Can Individual Events be Attributed to Climate Change?
23
![Page 24: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
• Attribution studies can look at two questions:– Did climate change make this event more likely?– Did climate change make this event more intense?
• The answers to these questions can be different.
Intensity vs Frequency
25
Climate change can influence an extreme event’s intensity and frequency.
![Page 26: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
In Response to Considerable Interest in the Topic
26
NOAA (Herring, Hoerling and Peterson) and the UK Met Office (Peter Stott) co‐led the development of an annual BAMS report, Explaining Extremes from a Climate Perspective.
![Page 27: Extreme Events in a Warming World - Changing …...Extreme Events in a Warming World April 2014 Martin Hoerling, NOAA 1. What is Extreme Weather? Extreme Weather is in the Fabric of](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022050220/5f6629c90ff0f52c571b23ad/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
• IPCC SREX report: http://ipcc‐wg2.gov/SREX/• IPCC AR5: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/• NOAA State of the Science Fact Sheets (extreme events fact sheet coming soon):
http://nrc.noaa.gov/CouncilProducts/ScienceFactSheets.aspx• NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate‐
information/extreme‐events• Explaining Extremes from a Climate Perspective:
• 2011: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS‐D‐12‐00021.1• 2012: http://www.ametsoc.org/2012extremeeventsclimate.pdf
References
27