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Page 1: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

glen hiemstra

exponential energy and the preferred future

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Page 2: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

what is your image of the future?

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Page 3: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

when we make, not avoid, disruptions we change human future

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Page 4: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

✦so you must ✦ look for disruptive changes ✦see Preferred Future

directions as early as possible

when we ignore disruptions

4

Page 5: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

what is your image of the future?

probable?

possible?

preferred?

5

Page 6: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

not a mystery

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Page 7: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

✦ generations, in cities ✦ intelligent systems ✦ environment imperatives ✦ emerging electric century ✦ reinvented energy

longtermfuture

7

Page 8: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

✦ global population growth from 7.6 billion to ~ 9.8 billion....

✦ with 80% living in cities / metro areas

✦ requires energy transition

genera&onsinci&es

8

Page 9: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

80%+ living in cities 2050

9

Page 10: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

✦ in the next 30 years we have to produce about 50% more food annually than we do today

globalfoodchallenge

10

Page 11: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

sky greens urban farm, Singapore Mithun Architects 23 story proposal for Seattle, 300 residences, 1.35 acres crops, chicken farm, cafe, etc.

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Page 13: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

Teekay Corporationvia YouTube 9 Feb 2018

environmental imperatives

13

Page 14: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

how will we power a smarter future?

We're coupling the price of energy to the ever-declining cost of technology.

Ramez Naam

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Page 15: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

nano | bio | info | cogno | robo | space

autonomy | mixed reality 3D | AI | blockchain

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Page 16: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

cost of natural gas peaking or power plant?

about 6 cents per Kw/hr

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courtesy ramez naam

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Page 18: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

UScentsp

erkwh

1

10

100

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

57₵/kwh

4₵/kwh

15xPriceDeclineWindPowerCost–USInterior(Unsubsidized)

courtesy ramez naam

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Page 19: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

Morocco 2.8c/kwhBrazil 2c/kwhMexico 2c/kwh

U.S 2c/kwh Aug 2018

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Page 20: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

74GW

487GW6.5xGrowth 10Years

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Page 21: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

PRICESFALL

TAPINTONEW

MARKETS

INCREASEDDEMAND

LEARNING

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courtesy ramez naam

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courtesy ramez naam

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Page 25: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

$0.10

$1.00

$10.00

$100.00

1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

cost of solar power$77.00

$0.30

250x price decline

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Page 26: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

India 3.8c/kwh

Mexico 2.5c/kwh

Abu Dhabi 2.4c/kwh

Chile 2.15c/kwh

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Page 27: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

Tucson: 3.3 cents per kwh (2.3 cents w/ ITC)

courtesy ramez naam

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Page 28: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

50xGrowth 10Years

courtesy ramez naam

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Page 29: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

PRICESFALL

TAPINTONEW

MARKETS

INCREASEDDEMAND

LEARNING

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JavierGilcourtesy ramez naam

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courtesy ramez naam

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Germany

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36yearsofUSWeather/DemandData

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Page 35: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

ENERGY STORAGE

courtesy ramez naam

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Page 36: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

TESLA

USDepartmentofEnergyForecast

courtesy ramez naam

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courtesy ramez naam

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Page 38: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

Chile:Solar+Storage:3.4cents/kwh

courtesy ramez naam

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MANYMORESTORAGETECHNOLOGIES

•

courtesy ramez naam

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Page 41: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

FLOWBATTERIESBig&HeavyBut20xLIFETIMEofLithium-Ion=LOWERCOST

courtesy ramez naam

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Page 42: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

exponential energy

Solar

SOLAR

WIND

BATTERIES

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courtesy ramez naam

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Page 44: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

GlobalPipelineofNewCoalPowerPlantsShrinkingFast

Planned coal power capacity in pre-construction status has declined from 1,090GW in 2015 to 364GW in July 2018, with the biggest drops in China (light blue) and India (dark blue). Source: Global Coal Plant Tracker, July 2018.

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Page 46: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

NEWSOLARCOST

COALOPERATINGCOST

courtesy ramez naam

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Page 47: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

now, what if you disrupt the disruption

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Page 49: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

“It’s a solar roof, as opposed to modules on a roof” Musk said during the earnings call. “I think this is really a fundamental part of achieving a differentiated product strategy, where you have a beautiful roof. It’s not a thing on the roof. It is the roof.”

http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/elon-musk-solar-roof/#ixzz4HhUDQApB

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Page 50: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

ELECTRIC CENTURY

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Page 54: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

PRICESFALL

TAPINTONEW

MARKETS

INCREASEDDEMAND

LEARNING

54

Page 55: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

courtesy ramez naam

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Page 56: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

TeslaModel3

$35,000goal 220+milerange

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Page 57: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

ElectricVehicleProjections-USA

EIA:20,000EVswith200milerangeby2040

courtesy ramez naam

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courtesy ramez naam

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courtesy ramez naam

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Page 61: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

90%FewerMovingParts

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Page 63: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

where do you go from here?

63

Page 64: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

what is your image of the future?

64

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most planning is a search for more efficient past...

rather than a search for new future

65

Page 66: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

The future is not something that just happens to us

The future is something we do

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Page 67: exponential energy and the preferred future · ramez naam 41. exponential energy Solar R D B A T T E R I E S 42. courtesy ramez naam 43. Global Pipeline of New Coal Power Plants Shrinking

www.futurist.com

[email protected]

twitter.com/glenhiemstra

linkedin.com/glenhiemstra

thank you for your time

67


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Chapter 3 Exponential Logarithmic Functions. 3.1 Exponential Functions Objectives Evaluate exponential functions. Graph exponential functions. Evaluate

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