1. EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE Praia, 30th November 2013 Lala Deheinzelin Enthusiasmo Cultural www.laladeheinzelin.com www.criefuturos.com 2. Futurist, Specialist in Creative Economy and Sustainability Corporations Commucation Artistical Languages Third Sector NGOs FUTURE Goverments Local Development Biology and History International Cooperation Sustainability Digital Culture Crie Futuros Moviment 3. What is the role of a futurist? 4. Why do we talk about the future ? The futures is the result of dreams from the past and choices from the present Lala Deheinzelin , 2012 5. 1906, Twitter and sms 6. 1912, Frana Lala Deheinzelin 7. Internet, skype , wireless , GPS, computers, mega cities 1921-EUA 8. Lala Deheinzelin 9. School of the future has disciplines that foster the perception of our interdependence. For instance: knowing the consequences in order to make better choices Now you can apply for Choices I already have credits for Consequences 1 and 2 Cool! 10. Why do we talk about the future ? The present is very different from anything that came before. How can we understand it? Lala Deheinzelin 11. A problem can not be solved by the same mind that has created it Albert Einstein We need to change our paradigms Lala Deheinzelin 12. New ERA The centrality of the intangible Most valuable brand Google 75% of the value of a product is in its intangibles 13. AIRBNB largest hotel in the world On line system that makes available domestic rooms No building , no personnel, no infrastructure or communication expenses. PRE-EXISTING STRUCTURES + INTELIGENCE + TECHNOLOGY + COLABORATION Lala Deheinzelin 14. Figura 1- PIB da China (1952-2008) Fonte Global technological change - from hard technology to soft technology Beijing Academy of Soft Technology(BAST) http://www.soft-technology.org 15. INDUSTRIAL ERA Natural resources, infra-structure Tangible = Finite CONSUMED BY USE COMPETITION Change of Era Creative Economy, New Technologies , Collaboration Intangible = Infinite MULTIPLIED BY USE COLLABORATION Lala Deheinzelin 16. Industrial Era Naturals resources, infra-structure Tangible = Finite Economy of Scarcity LINEAR Growth, 5 + 5 = 10 30 steps= 30 meters Creative Economy, New Technologies, Collaboration Intangible = Infinite Economy of Abundance EXPONENTIAL Growht , 5x5x5x5x5= 3.125 30 steps= 26 times around the planet Lala Deheinzelin 17. Why do we talk about the future ? From scarce to abundant Centrality of the intangibles Lala Deheinzelin 18. SOCIOCULTURAL Cultural Diversity INTANGIBLE SOFTWARE 2D Lenses Tangible Intangible TECHNO NATURAL Bio Diversity TANGIBLE HARDWARE 19. Brazil: World Cup and Olympic Games And the software ? Management, Education, ITCs, entrepreneurship? IDB: 3% of investments 2D Lenses Tangible Intangible Tangible, the hardware: New facilities, highways, etc. IDB: 97% of investments Lala Deheinzelin 20. Creative Economy Intangible/Software Distribute Communicate 2D Lenses Tangible Intangible Tangible/Hardware Produce Lala Deheinzelin 21. Creative Cities and Territories MEDELLN COLOMBIA From drugs Cartel to the most innovative city of the world HOW ? 40 % of the city budget on education and culture 22. Why do we talk about the future ? From scarcity to abundance Netweaved distributed processes Lala Deheinzelin 23. CENTRALIZED DISTRIBUTED TANGIBLE INTANGIBLE LINEAR EXPONENTIAL RESTRICTED AND SCARCE FLOW INFINITE PATHS, FLOW UNIDIMENSIONAL (quantitative, one currency) REPRODUCTION MULTIDIMENSIONAL ( qualitative, multi currency) CREATION BUREOCRACY SIMPLIFICATION BASED ON TRUST SCARCITY ABUNDANCE 24. LINEAR = focus on tangibles/ infra-struture + centralized processes EXPONENTIAL = focus on intangibles/ creatives + network processes, distributed HOW TO MAKE GOOD USE OF EXPONENTIAL POSSIBILITIES? EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE Lala Deheinzelin 25. PayPal founder and libertarian futurist Peter Thiel : Gave 20 bright young things $100,000 each to quit college and start a company instead. Result from 2011 and 2012 fared. They have founded over 30 companies and raised a reported $34 million thus far 26. Why do we talk about the future ? Exponential cycle of Abundance Lala Deheinzelin , 2012 27. D sociopolitical COLLABORATIVE Distributed Models of business and organization Focus on Common Wealth Intangibles + new technologies results in D techno - natural NEW TECHNOLOGIES Virtual Worlds Sharing Economy key: broaden the concept of wealth and quality life D monetary solidary MULTIDIMENSIONAL WEALTH 4D: Social, Cultural, Financial, Environmental Assets EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE become visible and operational thanks to D symbolic cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience 28. EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE D socio cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience 29. CULTURA Mentalidades e Hbitos Nossa viso e jeito de estar no mundo CREATIVE ECONOMY Economy whose value is based upon on intangibles resources Is a key for all types of activity CREATIVE CITIES AND TERRITORIES (territorial approach) CREATIVE INDUSTRY Arts + Industry + Content + Creative services ARTS Lala Deheinzelin 30. Assets TANGIBLE Ex: oil, gold, land Traditional Economy Assets Identified and accessible INTANGIBLE Creative Economy Cultural Diversity, Process that adds value brand, artistic language, innovation Tangvel + Intangvel MAIOR VALOR Wealth and life quality Wealth and life quality 31. Economia Criativa: chain of value genereation Possible only with the sinergy with other areas. Product $$ + Marketing Product $$$$ + Comunication + Design Product $ Creative economy is multisectorial by nature Product $$$$$$ + DIstribuition 32. Creative Cities and Territories MEDELLN COLOMBIA From drugs Cartel to the most innovative city of the world HOW ? 40 % of the budget on education and culture 33. Turning a problem into a solution Barbacena, was a city with a bad image because it houses the biggest lunatic asylum in Brazil so, they created the Fools Festival , where every madness is possible and welcome! As a Hoephonic , an orchestra where patients from the madhouse play attuned hoes 34. R&D, Design Culture and Media Software Internet services Computerization of services Arts and Craftsmanship Research & Development Advertising Intellectual property Editorial Market Museums Television, Broadcasting, Films and Audiovisual, Literature and Performing Arts Architecture and City planning Consulting Fashion and lifestyle City planning Decoration Personal care services Weddings, parties and photos Indoor entertainments Leisure and recreation Tourists services Consulting Market research Conventions and Exhibitions Security consulting Insurances services Innovation services and Technology Services related to Arts and culture Creative Industries in Shanghai 35. Secretrio Executivo UC Reforma do Estado - Carlos Santos 1 categoria em liberdades ( Freedom house ) e o Pas mais Livre em frica, poltica e civilmente ( Mo Ibraim e MCC) Melhor esperana de vida Africana 73, 9 anos Melhor Democracia de lusfona, 2 melhor democracia africana Segundo Pas mais bem gerido em frica (Mo Ibraim) Segundo Pas mais Transparente em frica ( Mo Ibraim e MCC) 3 melhor Pas africano com taxa de acesso e cobertura de internet Dez Pases africanos com o melhor PIB em frica Melhor crescimento regional ao nvel de Turismo, Dez Melhores destinos tursticos ticos Lista dos dez Pases africanos de futuro e com melhor ambiente Prmio Country of the Year (GEW Global Entrepreneurship Week), Prmio Africano de Inovao para o Sector Pblico (AAPSIA 2012 36. Creative Economy+ Collaborative Intangibles Resources that that renew and multiply with use Have greater activation potential, fostering the environment Financial Results + Environmental, Social, Cultural ESTRATEGIC PRIORITY AND KEY FOR SUSTAINABILITY Lala Deheinzelin 37. Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Cultural Dimension INTANGIBLE ASSETS Comprehend The local intangible assets + shared community vision Communicate Story telling : share local differentials and common vision 38. EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE D techno - natural NEW TECHNOLOGIES Virtual Worlds Sharing Economy become visible and operational thanks to D symbolic cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience 39. www.indiosonline.net Tupinambs Indigineous People, Bahia Uses mobiles to record traditional activities, fight for their rights, commercialize products, interact 40. Sharing economy: uses ITCs to generate business as from sharing http://meshing.it/ 41. Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Environmental Dimension INFORMATION AND COMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES Connect Local dreams and needs + Local available spaces, equipments, materials Care Generate growth through taking care of people, environment, rights, etc 42. D sociopolitical COLLABORATIVE Distributed models of business and organization Focus on Common Wealth Intangibles + new technologies results in D techno - natural NEW TECHNOLOGIES Virtual Worlds Sharing Economy EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE become visible and operational thanks to D symbolic cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience 43. Knowledge + Will + Time + ITCs COLLABORATION WIKIPEDIA = 100 million hours to make it = whatch TV adds, in one single weekend, just in USA World: 1 trillion hours /years on TV Imagine everything we could do with these time hours + knowledge + will? 44. Ultra fast and safe car .Runs 100 miles per liter of gaz Produced in 3 months , by 8 people living in 4 different countries Made with 3D printers and costs around U$ 20.000 45. SOLE Self Organized Learning Environements http://www.ted.com/pages/sole_challenge 0,1 % of the Diaspora de Cape Verde as tutor 1 h/w = workload of 3.000 school year/class 46. Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Social Dimension NETWORK IN ACTION COLABORATE The only way of winning it all. Integrated action: from competition to collaboration CELEBRATE Joy, creativity and a cause as a means to mobilize collective action 47. Collaborative Producers Instituto Intercidadania, Pedro Jatob Complete Cycle, Capacity Building + Difusion + Exihibition + Commercialization Lala Deheinzelin 48. Produtora Colaborativa, Pedro Jatob, Instituto Intercidadania http://www.iteia.org.br/videos/pedro-jatoba-explica-a-produtora-cultural-na-expoidea 49. D sociopolitical COLLABORATIVE key: broaden the concept of Distributed models of wealth and business and organization quality life Focus on Common Wealth Intangibles + new technologies results in D techno - natural NEW TECHNOLOGIES Virtual Worlds Sharing Economy D monetary solidary MULTIDIMENSIONAL WEALTH 4D: Social, Cultural, Financial, Environmental Assets EXPONENTIAL CYCLE OF ABUNDANCE become visible and operational thanks to D symbolic cultural INTANGIBLE ASSETS Desirable futures Cultural Diversity Experience 50. Wealth of nations Intangible, software GHP Lenses 2D Tangible Intangible Tangible, hardware: GDP Lala Deheinzelin , 51. Measurement Tangible, hardware: Intangible, software Lenses 2D Tangible Intangible Processes Qualitative Dynamics Life quality Products Quantitative Numbers money Lala Deheinzelin , 52. SOCIAL AMBIENTAL ECONMICO FINANCEIRO ECONMICO Mas, hardwares no funcionam sem software... Cad a inteligncia e a criatividade? E os valores humanos, os atributos? O mundo interior ? SIMBLICO-CULTURAL Lala Deheinzelin 53. SOCIOPOLITICAL rights + Governance Intangible Environmental 4 dimensions 4D ECONOMY Financial MONETARY + SOLIDARY ECONOMY TECHNO - NATURAL Tangible SYMBOLIC - CULTURAL Knowledge + Culture Lala Deheinzelin 54. SOCIAL Collective activities Community and family relationships Policies/ Laws / standards Reputation / Visibility/ Media/ Press/ Dissemination Connections /Alliances/Contacts Networks/Clubs/ Collectives ENVIRONMENTAL Equipment Available spaces, totally or in part Special places, nature and monuments Biodiversity, nature Raw material and reusable residues Body and health 4D RESOURCES FINANCIAL Funding/Tenders/Funds Investments Markets/ Products for Distribution Working hours/ Voluntary works Complementary currencies CULTURAL Artistic Languages Traditional knowledge and doings Formal Knowledge/ Research History/ Myths/ Curiosities/ Traditions Values/ Attributes/ Differentials Social cultural technologies Events/ festivities/calendar Unique experiences / leisure/ hobbies/ 55. SOCIAL Does it generate more connections, joint action and things made in a co way ? ENVIRONMENTAL Does it optimize and generate techno natural resources ? 4D RESULTS FINANTIAL Does it generate flows, wealth and wellbeing in the 4Ds ? CULTURAL Does it generate knowledge, criativity, experiences ? 56. SOCIOPOLITICAL RIGHTS + GOVERNANCE REPUTATION 6 ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNO - NATURAL POOR USE OF NATURAL RESOURCES -5 4D RESULTS FINANTIAL MONETARY + SOLIDARY 8-4-5+2= -1 SYMBOLIC - CULTURAL KNOWLEDGE + CULTURE KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT +2 SALLES +8 57. 4D Matrix 4D VALUE 4D GOALS 4D PROCESSES 4D RESOURCES 4D RESULTS 58. Fora do Eixo: 2009 30% in currency , 70% in Collaborative 2010 15% in currency, 85% in Collaborative More than 88 millions circulated 59. Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Financial Dimension MULTIDIMENSIONAL WEALTH CIRCULATE Generate fair flows of 4D resources and results CREDIT Systematization: indicators and measures for wealth beyond finance 60. Social Dimension NETWORK SOCIETY Financial Dimension 4D PROSPERITY COLLABORATE CELEBRATE CREDIT CIRCULATE Creating Creative and Collaborative Communities Environmental Dimension INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES CONNECT CARE Cultural Dimension INTANGIBLE ASSETS COMPREHEND COMMUNICATE 61. GROWTH Intangible/Software CARE PEOPLE PROCESSES 2D Lenses Tangible Intangible Tangible/Hardware CONSUMPTION INFRA-STRUCTURE PRODUCTS Lala Deheinzelin 62. Enable adequate environment Systemic, non sectorial policies 63. SCALE UP Solve macro socioeconomics problems through the connection of many, small and diverse 64. CONFIANA CAPITAL SOCIAL COLABORAR Lala Deheinzelin 65. The future desired by all is the fabric that suport. The colours are the diversity, Integration of the diverse segments create the design. And with trust and networks, everyone sustains everybody. 66. YEahh !!! Another world is possible ! We have resources, knowledge and people !! Lala Deheinzelin 67. THANK YOU ! My nourishment: is your statement! www.laladeheinzelin.com video articles publications Lala Deheinzelin lala@enthusiasmo.com.br