exploring the contribution of ftas to food security in the apec region robert scollay new zealand...
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Exploring the Contribution of FTAs to Food Security in the APEC Region
Robert Scollay
New Zealand APEC Study Centre
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Motivation
• Trade’s Vital Contribution to Food Security– Complementing the contributions of• Technology and innovation• Extension• Infrastructure development• Supply chain efficiency• Water management • etc
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APEC Region Supply/Demand Balance of Key Food Security Products
• Cereals– Net exporter of rice, wheat– Net importer of maize
• Animal Products– Net importer of beef, pork, poultry, sheepmeat,
dairy products
• Feed– Large net importer of soya beans
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A World of FTAsThe “New Normal”?
• Conventional Wisdom– WTO the only effective venue for liberalising and facilitating
agricultural trade
• Today’s Reality– WTO paralysed– FTAs in practice the main vehicle for international agreements to
liberalise trade – “by default”– APEC Region
• “Noodle Bowl” of Bilateral FTAs• Plurilaterals: “ASEAN-Plus”• Proposed Region-wide trade agreements: EAFTA, CEPEA, TPP
• How effective are FTAs in liberalising agricultural trade?– Example: Cereals
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FTA’s and the Imperatives of Modern Agricultural Trade
• “21st Century” / “next generation” trade issues are critically import for trade in food as in other products
• To be relevant, FTAs must address these issues in food trade as well as other trade
But
• Declaring victory over tariffs and other formal barriers is premature
• Barriers to trade in food remain extensive and pervasive– and often explicitly designed to be prohibitive
the “traditional business” remains relevant and important for trade in food
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Average agricultural tariffs are still high(….. and peak tariffs are even higher)
e.g. evidence from 2011 WTO/IDE-JETRO Study
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FTAs and Food TradeStrengths and Weaknesses
• FTAs directly address applied tariffs– typically reducing them to zero over time
But
• Scope for exclusions may be concentrated in agriculture• TRQs and SSG measures widely used– may be viewed as trade facilitative in some circumstances
• Variable record in addressing regulatory issues e.g. SPS• “Next generation” issues only now beginning to be
addressed
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FTAs and Trade in CerealsOutline
• Production, Consumption, Trade Trends– Rice– Wheat– Maize
How reliable/timely is the data?
• Agreement-by-agreement analysis of individual economy commitments for HS Chapter 10– FTA Tariff Elimination Profiles
• Overview of Results– commitments often cautious and partial– almost no liberalisation in some cases
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Analysis of HS Chapter 10 CommitmentsBy Agreement By Economy
Key to Agreements/Economies
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Examples of Alternative Approach:Analysis of Agreements by Chapter
Key to HS Chapters• 2 (meat), • 3 (fish)• 4 (dairy)• 7 (vegetables)• 8 (fruit)• 10 (cereals)• 11 (milled products)• 12 (oilseeds)• 15 (fats and oils)• 16 (meat preparations)• 17 (sugar)• 19 (cereal preparations)• 20 (fruit and vegetables preparations)• 21 (misc preparations)
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Summary
• Cereals– stepped tariff elimination or reduction in cereals in
some FTA commitments• time profile varies – action often delayed
– “no change” also common• reflecting markets already open or remaining closed
• Samples indicate varying effectiveness of FTAs in opening food markets– some instances of comprehensive liberalisation– evidence of concentration of product exclusions on
food chapters also widespread but not universal