exploiting complexity abaci the partnership complex multi-modal multi-level influence networks –...

Exploiting Complexity

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Complex Multi-Modal Multi-level Influence Networks

– Affordable Housing Case Study

Patrick Beautement, Christine BrönnerA presentation to: ComplexCCS Workshop, Complex ’09,

Shanghai

Date: 25 Feb 2009

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Contents

01 Case Study - Overview

02 Complexity Framework

03 The Framework applied

04 Implications for Complex CCS

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01 Case Study -Affordable Housing - Overview

Concerned with public opinion in small towns on the border between England and Wales in the UK.

Communities were considering how local plans needed to be changed to accommodate new planning guidance.

This case study focuses on one of the market towns in the area which has a population of around 11,000 people.

Socially and economically, the range is surprisingly wide, with marked extremes.

The town has very diverse businesses including:

Traditional agriculture, light engineering and construction.

'Creative clusters' of artists, designers and cyber-technology startups.

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01 Case Study -Affordable Housing - Overview

The local plans had to balance the following:

Social Housing; Town Centres and Retail Developments;

Sustainable Development in Rural Areas;

Transport and Planning and the Historic Environment.

Individuals and a number of organisations and institutions were asked to submit their views for resolution, before submission to higher authorities.

This case study concerns the local 'Civic Society':

A voluntary decision-making body with over 500 members.

Focussed on the conservation of the historic fabric of the town and on its sustainable future.

This group became extremely divided and polarised on the issue of the provision of social / affordable housing.

Local Policy forsocial housing

Location ofdevelopments

Wagesavailable

Availabilityof work

Listed building /conservation restrictions

Limitationson sale

Private estatesoften 'bland'

Availability ofpotential sites

Spread aboutnot in 'ghetto'

Quality / standardsof housing

Availability ofrental property

Demand forhousing

Value (land / adjacent housing)may be driven down

Social changepressures

Financial viabilityof developments

Limitations onwho can buy

Cost ofhousing

See list of factors ..

Provision oflocal facilitiesGovernment

policy

See list of factors ..

Geography of the area

Governmentpolicy

Transport Issues

01 Initial Influence Network

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02 Complexity Framework –Realities to be Dealt With

Human society is open and dynamic and cannot be understood in a 'reductionist' manner:

Complexity science would characterise it as 'complex, adaptive (reflexive) systems'.

Their elements are heterogeneous as are the interactions and 'couplings' between them. So the phenomena are:

Multi-modal, eg: via sight, physical contact etc;

Multi-level, eg: from the level of chemistry to the level of human social activity.

Analysis of the past and 'prediction' of the future require different techniques to be employed.

Insights about these phenomena from complexity science lead us to propose the following 'Complexity Framework' …

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Interactions with the Wider Environment

Multi-level / multi-modal interactions

Complex Phenomena, such asEmergence, Adaptation, EvolutionSelf-organisation / self-regulation

Changing over time- transitions

02 Complexity Framework –Overview

Select a Perspective Within and across perspectives - compare viewpoints

Perspective 3 Components and Compose-ability

Perspective 4 Shaping Dynamic Change

Perspective 1 Precursors and Enablers

Perspective 2 Purposefulness and Intent

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02 Complexity Framework –Employment: Context and Mindset

Employing the Complexity Framework, and exploiting complex phenomena themselves, requires that an appropriate Mindset be adopted which recognises, for example, that:

For any analytical task, the appropriate Perspective should be selected – then suitable 'practical' viewpoints (domain / context dependent) within that Perspective examined.

The Perspectives in the Framework are not independent – they are inter-connected – and the level, modality and other properties of the connections are relevant.

Avoiding limiting assumptions (such as drawing arbitrary boundaries), being able to work with incomplete 'data' and within uncertain situations are good things to do.

There is value in comparing alternative, competing, hypotheses – how ever unlikely some of them may seem.

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Demand forhousing


Wagesavailable

Availabilityof work






Cost ofhousing

Provision oflocal facilities



Limitationson sale


Governmentpolicy

Governmentpolicy





Transport Issues

03 Influence Network - Domains

Key - Domains:

Geographical

Economic

Policy

Social



Wagesavailable

Availabilityof work


Limitationson sale






Demand forhousing





Cost ofhousing


policy


Governmentpolicy

Transport Issues

03 Influence Network – Economic Focus

Key - Domains:

Geographical

Economic

Policy

Social

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03 Framework Applied – Economic DomainPerspective 1: The 'Givens'

Precursors include:

Number, mathematics / arithmetic, zero.

Phenomena such as competition for geographically distributed resources (eg, the zero-sum 'game').

'Enablers' include the relevance of:

The notions of money, commerce and trade:

– Shaped by history of this area [link to geographical domain]

Current and new financial and economic models.

– New abilities to compete, collaborate and co-operate – especially online ('outside' the town).

Economic constraints and social norms (eg, peer pressure) for this area [link to geographical domain].

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03 Framework Applied – Economic Domain Perspective 2: Purpose and Intent

Identify and understand the viewpoints of:

Individuals; Community Groups; 'Factions' [link to social].

Official organisations [link to policy].

Identify relationships to others in the community and map current / potential influence networks [see P3]:

Those with whom they could collaborate / with whom they might form allegiances.

Those who seemed to be in opposition (but who should be approached).

Consider relative degrees of power and influence - identify vulnerable groups who would need support.

Revaluate perceptions - make changes to the way influence is exerted, leading to more constructive progress.

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03 Framework Applied – Economic Domain Perspective 3: 'Components' / Structures

Three types of 'component' initially considered:

The people - eg, demographics, skill sets and temperaments and personalities of key individuals.

The elements of the community and their possible configurations - social mixes, factions and institutions:

– Identify overlaps, relationships and exclusions etc.

Leadership elements in the community – including:

– key 'nodes' (whether formally appointed, informal representatives or 'trouble-makers') [link to social].

Additionally, other components added:

Types of enterprise [link to economic]. Key features, buildings, areas of the town and transport elements [link to geographical]. Key laws and documents [link to policy].

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03 Framework Applied – Economic Domain Perspective 4: Shaping Change

Identify triggers of change and time critical issues:

Accept that every consequences cannot be followed through and that certain indicators will not be available.

Three main types of influence opportunities available:

Top-down – via official organisations and key individuals.

Via self-regulation / self-organisation – ie, exploiting the balancing, creative and disruptive forces already at work and through existing community structures (collaborate, compete or disrupt) [link to social].

Bottom–up – via direct peer-to-peer social pressures, public opinion and appealing to the 'better-nature' of individuals.

Other influence opportunities available – eg, through the environment (physical impact of unwelcome change).

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03 The Framework Applied – Example Outcomes

In forming recommendations they noted factors such as:

Geographic: The location of various features / activities / groupings had a major influence on every other domain.

Economic: The formula used for calculating local council funding was out of date (inconsistent and unrealistic) so that the economic influences were distorted.

Policy: Local plans and census information etc were often out of date - leading to ill-formed policy decisions.

Social: A longer term and wider view was required – being more realistic about population trends / social issues such as lifting restrictions on incomers / letting villages die.

In conclusion, use of the Framework had been valuable - including helping to build bridges between parts of the community which had previously been in opposition.

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04 Implications for Complex CCS –and Beyond

Evaluate the utility of the Complexity Framework:

It enables deep insights to be out drawn because it is based on an understanding of the very mechanisms that drive complex phenomena.

Enables 'thought experiments' to be quickly carried out without the need for extensive modelling – instead uses toolsets directly aimed at supporting context exploration and decision-making.

Exploits the notions of perspective, domain and viewpoint to focus in on related problems with manageable scope.

Realities for Complex CCS:

Recognise better the expertise of practitioners - those who are achieving pragmatic outcomes in complex domains of endeavour (such as in medicine; social and cultural engagement; urban planning, geography and sustainability issues etc).

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04 Implications for Complex CCS –and Beyond

Suggestions for moving forward with Complex CCS,

Engage more effectively with practitioners, using their terms, so that practical assistance can be provided which exploits complexity thinking appropriately - key to achieving this are:

– translating complexity science into the 'abstractions', the language, already in use in each specialist domain - practitioners should not have to be taught the language of complexity science.

– being able to add new insights to these practical domains - especially trans-disciplinary ones – by improving understanding of how dynamic engagement with the now' operates and is exploited.

We propose two extra questions:

A. Given that practitioners have been dealing 'successfully' with complexity, what can we learn from their approaches?

B. Part of putting complexity to work involves machines - so what kind of sense can machines make of the complexity?

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Past (Puzzles)Now

(Action,Influence)

Possible Futures (Mysteries)

POSSIBLE CAUSES: Things we know - or can know (facts or fact-like)

POSSIBLE EFFECTS: Things we could, in theory, know - or which are, as yet, 'unknowable'(plus assumptions based upon the past)

04 Past Analysis to Future Prediction

The Event

Fact (known)

Evidence(discovered)Fact (undiscovered)

Evidence(undiscovered)

Suggests probability of

Implies

Provid

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Significance to?

Hypotheses? Iterate and 'test':• Perspectives? Viewpoints?• Possibilities? Probabilities?• Indicators? Significance?• Temporal aspects? Influences? Fu

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© 2008 The abaci Partnership LLP

Mappings - meaning of links? Must allow 'contradictions' to co-exist

Complexity Framework

Explore possibilities- develop insights

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Questions … ?

Patrick [email protected]

Christine Brö[email protected]

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02 Complexity Framework –Perspectives 1 and 2

Perspective 1: The Givens:

What are the 'precursors' of phenomena?

– Things which are in place before phenomena can occur – yet over which we have no influence – such as physical laws.

What are the enablers of phenomena?

– Things which affect the nature of the occurrence – where we may be able to have some influence – such as our choice of raw materials for musical instruments.

Perspective 2: Purpose and Intent

Is 'purposefulness' involved in the phenomena? ie, the expression of intent or the direction towards outcomes.

If so, how is this intent captured and communicated? How does it evolve and how is it interpreted (and by whom)?

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02 Complexity Framework – Perspectives 3 and 4

Perspective 3: Components and 'Compose-ability'

What are the components involved in the phenomena and what are their properties?

– Their abilities to sense, communicate, interact and influence (and be influenced) will affect the nature of the outcomes.

What structures are possible with these components?

– The nature of the relationships and links between these elements – degree, tightness and flexibility to change them

Perspective 4: Shaping Dynamic Change

What options are available for influencing dynamic change?

– Purposefully eg, via Top-down, self-organisation / self-regulation and / or bottom-up approaches

What other influences in the wider environment are affecting dynamic change?

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Wagesavailable

Availabilityof work


Limitationson sale






Demand forhousing





Cost ofhousing


policy


Governmentpolicy

Transport Issues

03 Modified Influence Network

Key - Domains:

Geographical

Economic

Policy

Social

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Cause and Effect - Revisit 'Simple' example

Simple? But there are Significant (largely unspoken) Assumptions, that:• Cause and effect are single events - with defined start and end (closed system)• Instigator and recipient (and behaviours / responses) are known [no one else?]• Transition from cause to effect is 'simple' / instant [ie, arrow means 'nothing']• Transmission is via single, 'mono-modal' / 'mono-level' means (ie, there are a minimum number of intermediaries) - and there are no 'unintended' cascades.

CAUSE EFFECT

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exploiting complexity abaci the partnership complex multi-modal multi-level influence networks –...

Documents

case study overview

cost of housing

complex ccs slide

social housing town

exploiting complexity

local policy

complexity framework

local plans