expert systems approach to minimize the effects of brain drain

7/27/2019 EXPERT SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS OF BRAIN DRAIN

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68 IJCM Vol. 4, No. 3 & 4, 1994

EXPERT SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MINIMIZETHE EFFECTS OF BRAIN DRAINNaveed SaleemAbbas N. Azad

Brain d rain inflicts serious economic and social hardships on developingcountries. Consequently, these countries resort to such measures as governmentalregulations and economic incentives, which aim to slow down emigration of theirskilled professionals. How ever, these measures prove generally ineffective.Furthermore, predictive research on brain drain finds only further increase in ,rather than any decline of, the exodus of skilled professionals from developingcountries, which exacerbates the brain drain problem. This paper advocates theuse of expert systems to alleviate the scarcity of expertise caused by brain drain.The use of expert systems for this purpose appears logical, because these systemshave been successfully used to combat similar problems in developed countries.

INTRODUCTIONBrain drain, the emigration of trained professionals to other countries,is a matter of great concern to developing countries. Brain drain jeopardizesa country's economic development and weakens its ability to provide essentialservices to its citizens. To make matters worse for these countries, noreprieve appears to be on the horizon for them. The empirical, predictivestudies augur only further increase in rather than any decline of the loss ofskilled manpow er. The traditional solutions applied to this problem haveproved generally ineffective, hence, underlining the need for innovativeapproaches to address this problem. This paper advocates that the use ofexpert systems, one kind of information technology, provides an effective toolto minimize the effects of brain drain from developing countries.


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IJCM Vol. 4, No. 3 & 4, 1994 69EFFECTS OF BRAIN DRAIN

Brain drain inflicts serious economic and social hardships on developingcountries. First, it drains the scarce capital resources of the country, as wellas hurts the performances of the business entities. For instance, it createsdependence on foreign consultants, which results in the outflow of alreadyscarce capital resources (Kiggundu, 1989). In addition, it forces businessesto promote less experienced individuals, who may be unprepared to handletheir responsibilities, and thus hurt the overall performances of theorganizations in national and international markets (McHale, 1988).Second, brain drain jeopardizes the essential services provided to thecitizens of the developing country. In the Philippines, for example, somehospital wards had to be closed down due to shortage of nursing staff(Cohen, 1988). In Mexico, the emigration of university teachers to othercountries, appears to have caused a decline in the quality of its highereducation (Tangeman, 1989, p. A45). In short, brain drain causes seriouseconomic and social implications for a country.Sometimes, however, the argument is advanced that emigration actuallybenefits developing countries, because it affords their citizens the opportunityto acquire direly needed expertise and skills. This argument assumes that themajority of these individuals returns to the home country and makes valuablecontributions to its development. However, as described later in this paper,this assumption is not borne out by reality.

CAUSES OF BRAIN DRAIN

The two primary reasons believed to trigger brain drain fromdeveloping countries are : (1) higher compensation with better opportunitiesabroad; and (2) political uncertainty at home. Inadequate compensation foron e's skills in the home country becomes a source of frustration to the trainedprofessionals, which motivates them to look abroad for employment. Thisfrustration is well-spoken by a university professor in Mexico, whocomplained, "I am a Ph.D. from Stanford and I cannot afford to buy a usedVolkswagen" (Tangeman, 1989, p . A47). Economic considerations aside,when an uncertain political environment occurs in the home country, thisevent also sparks an exodus of the professional talent. For example, China'splanned takeover of Hong Kong in 1997 scared a number of businesses, along


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70 IJCM Vol. 4, No. 3 & 4, 1994with a high number of trained professionals, into the move to other countries(McHale, 1988).

TRADITIONAL SOLUTIONS TO BRAIN DRAIN

The goal of the traditional approaches, used to overcome the brain drainproblem, focuses on how to slow down the emigration of trainedprofessionals. Typically, two methods are used to accomplish this goal. Onemethod involves governmental legislation that creates difficulties forprofessionals to leave the country. For instance, in the Philippines,legislation is under consideration which requires the nursing students to workin the Philippines for a period of at least two years, before they would beallowed to go abroad (Cohen, 1988). Likewise, in an effort to discourageemigration of its Hong Kong citizens, the Chinese government announced itsstudy of whether or not to recognize foreign passports carried by Hong Kongnationals (Chada, 1988).The second method typically used to slow down brain drain is to offerhigher salaries and more attractive fringe benefits to the employees. Fo rexample, some Hong Kong businesses pay a bonus of three months salary totheir current employees, as well as to any expatriates willing to return toHong Kong ("Stepping Over the Border", 1989). Likewise, Taiwan offersits expatriates who are willing to return home significant financial assistanceand facilities to start their own businesses in Taiwan (Tanzer, 1989).Similarly, Ireland made heavy investments in high tech industries in order toretain its bright and ambitious citizens; however, its policy has not been veryeffective, because the young Irish still perceive only limited opportunities forthem in Ireland (Manasian, 1988).Apparently, only Taiwan has had any success in attracting its formercitizens return to homeland. Other countries have not had much luck in thisrespect. For instance, Mexico's academic and political leaders virtuallyconceded that they cannot stop the university system's chronic brain drain toother countries (Tangeman, 1989). Likewise, Greek authorities haveacknowledged that their country just cannot afford the economic incentivesneeded to attract Greek expatriates back to Greece (Manasian, 1988). Thus,the traditional approaches to slow down brain drain have had an extremelylimited success.


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IJ CM Vol. 4, No. 3 & 4, 1994 71PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON BRAIN DRAIN TREND

Various studies have examined the prospects of a slowdown in the rateof brain drain from the developing countries. The results of these studiesstrongly suggest that prospects of such slowdown, if any, are very limited.One study, Kwok and Leland (1982) examines the issue as to whystudents from developing countries do not return to their home country fromthe USA after receipt of their advanced degrees. They argue that theeconomic incentives are not the only cause for this problem . Rather, theyhypothesize, individuals of high abilities are not motivated to return becausetheir perceptions remain that the employers in their home country may notfully appreciate nor utilize their abilities. The results of this study supporttheir hypothesis. Consequently, economic considerations, as well aspsychological ones, contribute to the loss of these scarce intellectual assetsfrom the developing countries.

Lien (1987) extended the findings of Kwok and Leland (1982). Thisstudy argues that although the home country employers may not fullycomprehend the qualifications of prospective employees returning fromabroad, usually the ranking of the schools, where the candidates studied,infers such qualifications to them. With this assumption, Lien developed amathematical model of the possible behavior of individuals with advanceddegrees. The result of the study suggests that exceptionally capableindividuals remain unlikely to return to their home countries.In yet another study, Lien (1988) developed a model to evaluate thedeveloping countries' tendencies to invest in specialized research to attracttheir national scholars with specialized skills from abroad. The model revealsthat this approach actually renders the situation worse. First, this approachmisdirects use of scarce capital resources, which results in inefficient use ofhuman resources. Secondly, whereas this approach has a direct effect ofattracting some individuals from abroad, it also indirectly induces morestudents to remain abroad in order to train in specialized lines of research.The study also suggests that the indirect effect far outweighs the direct effect,and thereby exacerbates the brain drain problem. Thus, the policy ofinvesting in specialized research to attract national scholars from abroad doesnot yield the desired results.

The opportunities for emigration are also on the rise . Canada andAustralia enacted liberal immigration policies for professionals from abroad.Recently, the USA significantly increased its quota for professionalimm igrants. This situation holds a tremendous appeal for capable, ambitious


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72 IJCM Vol. 4, No. 3 & 4, 1994individuals from developing countries, who perceive only very limitedopportunities for progress in their home countries.In summary, the traditional approaches used to reverse or abate braindrain have proved generally ineffective. Furthermore, various predictivestudies do not foresee any decline whatsoever in the level of brain drain fromdeveloping countries. Plus, the opportunities for emigration are on the rise.Consequently, these results call for new, innovative approaches to address thebrain drain problem.

EXPERT SYSTEMS SOLUTION TO BRAIN DRAIN PROBLEMExpert systems, a kind of information technology, indeed provides aneffective way to minimize the effects of brain drain from developingcountries. However, before we explore how expert systems help in thisrespect, we need to briefly review such systems.An expert system, sometimes called an advisory system, is a computerprogram that mimics the behavior of human experts within some specificdomain of knowledge (Liebowitz, 1988, p. 3). An expert faced with aproblem elicits or derives information from various sources pertaining thatproblem, and then, based on that information, arrives at some decision

concerning that problem. Likewise, a user, consulting an expert system,provides data or information in response to queries from the system; then,based on the information provided, the system furnishes an advice or arecommendation.Expert systems may be used to seek advice, make a decision, or solvea problem. For example, DEC sales personnel use XSEL, an expert system,to recommend a system to customers based on their requirements (Hicks andLee, 1988). Likew ise, expert systems help users select one of the manyplaces to invest based on their financial conditions, goals, and personalitytraits (Frenzel, 1987). Also, expert systems exist to help doctors to diagnoseillnesses, as well as to prescribe treatments (Frenzel, 1987). In short, expertsystems have been developed and are utilized in science, medicine,engineering, manufacturing, business, and data processing (Rauch-Hindin,1988, p . 14). Table 1 lists some example expert systems.Within organizations, primary uses of expert systems are to: (1) trainusers; (2) make scarce expertise available to many members of theorganization; and (3) retain knowledge that might get lost due to theresignation, retirement, or death of an expert (Frenzel, 1987; Turban, 1990).


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IJCM Vol. 4, N o. 3 & 4, 1994 73For instance, Eastern Airlines successfully used expert systems to overcomescarcity of professional expertise (Horwitt, 1988). Likewise,

PRODUCTACEDELTADENDRALMYCINRTCXCON

TABLE 1Representative Expert Systems

DESCRIPTIONIdentifies trouble spots in Telephone Network.Determines malfunctions in diesel engines.Infers a structure of molecules from massspectrography data.Diagnoses bacterial infections and recommendsantibiotic therapy.Classifies ships by interpreting radar images.Ensures proper configuration of computersystem components.

VENDORBell LaboratoryGEStanford UniversityStanford UniversityDoDDEC

General Electric used expert systems technology to overcome a scarcity oflocomotive engineers. The expert systems developed for this purpose enablenovice engineers and technicians to diagnose faults in just a few minuteswhen they use expert systems. Additionally, these systems even explain therequired repair procedures to the user (Bonnison and Johnson, Jr., 1985).Another organization, J.P . Morgan & Company, developed an expert systemto help its support staff diagnose the problems in a local area network and tosuggest the possible procedures to solve the problems (Wilkinson, 1989).American Express developed an expert system called "Authorizer's Assistant"to assist inexperienced authorizers decide the outcomes of requests for credit(Barsanti, 1989).The examples cited above provide clear evidence that expert systemshelp organizations overcome scarcity of expertise, which remains the preciseoutcome of brain drain. Consequently, with their ability to mimic humanexperts within some specific domain of knowledge, expert systems offerdeveloping countries a way to overcome scarcity of professional expertisecreated by brain drain, too . This approach shows great promise to provide


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74 IJCM Vol. 4, No. 3 & 4, 1994a reprieve, because it focuses on combating the effects of brain drain, ratherthan on alleviating the cause of brain drain.

CONCLUSIONBrain drain presents serious economic and social implications withindeveloping countries. Consequently, these countries attempt variousapproaches to alleviate the problems caused by brain drain. The approachestypically used focus on: (1) slowing down brain drain through legislation; (2)reversing brain drain by investing in specialized research to attract nationalscholars from abroad; and (3) offering business incentives to expatriateswilling to return. However, such approaches generally prove ineffective.This study maintains that expert systems technology provides an effective wayto minimize the negative impact of brain drain. Expert systems successfullyused by numerous organizations in the U.S. have expanded scarce expertisewithin specific domains of knowledge in these organizations. Of course, theexpert systems solution is not a panacea. The success of this approach willdepend on the technological environment in the industry facing a scarcity ofprofessional expertise. Consequently, future research must identify theindustries within developing countries that may particularly benefit from the

expert systems technology.REFERENCES

Barsanti, J. (1989, Winter). Expert systems and you. Information Executive, 39-41.Bonnison, P.P., & Johnson, H.E., Jr. (1985). Expert systems for diesel electriclocomotive repair. Human Systems Management, 4, 255-262.Chada, K.K. (1988, March). Hong Kong: Brain drain hits public relations. PublicRelations Journal, 45(3), 9, 13.Cohen, M. (1988, July 27). Nursing colleges in Philippines suffering doubly as bothteachers and students seek foreign jobs. Chronicles of Higher Education, A24.Frenzel, L.E. (1987). Crash course in artificial intelligence and expert systems.Indianapolis, IN: Howard W. Sams.Hicks, R., & Lee, R. (1988). VP-expert for business ap plications. Oakland, CA:Holden-Day, Inc.Horw itt, E . (1988, April 11). Eastern recruits MIS to plug brain drain. Computerworld,22(15), 1, 104.Kiggundu, M .N . (1989, Sum mer). Outside consultants: Dilemma for developing nations.Business Forum, 23-26.


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IJCM Vol. 4, No . 3 & 4, 1994 75Kwok, V., & Leland, H. (1982). An economic model of the brain drain. AmericanEconomic Review, 72, 91-100.Liebowitz, J. (1988). Introduction to Expert Systems. Santa Cruz, CA: MitchellPublishing.Lien, D.D. (1987). Economic analysis and brain drain. Journal of DevelopmentEconomics, 33-43.Lien, D.D. (1988). Appropriate scientific research and brain drain. Journal ofDevelopment Economics, 77-87.Manasian, D. (1988, February). The exodus of the elite. International Management,54-56.M cHale, T. (1988). Hong K ong IS pros escape the 1977 jitters. Datamation, 34(14),45-52.Rauch-Hindin, W.B. (1988). A guide to commercial artificial intelligence. Englewood

Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.Stepping Over the Border. (1989, June 3). Economist, S8-S17.Tangeman, M. (1989, September 27). Mexico tries to reverse domestic "brain drain" inscience and technology. Chronicle of Higher Education, A45, A47.Tanzer, A. (1989, April 17). Brain drain in reverse. Forbes, 114-115.Turban, E. (1990). Decision support and expert systems. New York, NY: Macmillan.Wilkinson, S. (1989). Bank takes aim at LAN troubleshooting. PC Week, 53, 58.

Naveed Saleem is Assistant Professor of Management at the University of Houston-ClearLake in Houston, Texas.Abbas N. Azad is Associate Professor of Management at Slippery Rock University inSlippery Rock, Pennsylvania.

expert systems approach to minimize the effects of brain drain

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