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Experimental Economics Presentation Updated version Cecilia and Danye Nov. 27 th, 2007 Slide 2 The Question What is the expected observed price and quantity change for Spring Break destination air tickets in the (six weeks) leading up to the Spring Break? Slide 3 Basic Assumption For buyer, his action is based on his assumption of the pricing strategy of sellers. For seller, his action is based on his observation of the buyers actions. This game is an interaction between buyers and sellers. Slide 4 Possible Outcomes Pricing trends Going up with time Going down with time Going up and drop down at last minute Expected observed Outcomes Rather flat, because: ifthen A general trend of dropping down: because sellers are concerned about blocks of 5. Slide 5 Recap Instruction Setup Shared information: In this experiment, there are 2 types of agents: Sellers and Buyers. Your objective is to maximize your final Payoff. And generally speaking, the buyers face a diminishing marginal value (utility) with purchasing volume. Each period lasts for 3 minutes. There will be 12 periods. Slide 6 Recap Instruction Setup Sellers information: Youre representing one of them, but you dont know yet Slide 7 Recap Instruction Setup Sellers information: Stock: 100 (Same for all Sellers) Money: 0 (Same for all Sellers) Cost per unit: Random number between100-200 You can ASK any price for your goods. The cost per unit, independently drawn for each seller, is consistent for each period, despite of how many goods you sell. However, you will incur costs at blocks of 5 units. You may Cancel your ASK if no buyer has accepted it, by buying back your own stock. You may only buy back your own stock (identified by blue font) but NOT other sellers stock. Payoff = Total earnings Total Costs (with units rounded up to the nearest multiple of 5) Slide 8 Recap Instruction Setup Buyers information: Stock: 0 (Same for all buyers) Money: 10000 (Same for all buyers) Value per unit: Random number between200-300 You can BUY a maximum of 5 units You cannot ASK. You can only take posted prices by the sellers, and you cannot re-sell your goods to other buyers. Your value per unit, independently drawn for each buyer, decreases by 10 for every extra unit you purchase. Your payoff is calculated as follows: Payoff = Total value Total amount of money spent Slide 9 Data Analysis First 5 periods before everyone learned Sellers Constraints Slide 10 Period 1 Slide 11 Period 2 Slide 12 Period 3 Slide 13 Observations First 3 periods Learning process, both sides rather cautious Little fluctuation in observed prices (180-200) General trend rather flat, with a slight drop in period 2 and slight heading up in period 3. Numbers of transactions accomplished flat out through the 3 min process, with slightly more concentration in the beginning and the end. Slide 14 Period 4 Slide 15 Period 5 Slide 16 Observations Periods 4 and 5 Both sellers and buyers begin to take risks See more fluctuation in observed prices (140- 200) General trend: price is going down. Sellers are more concerned to make sure they sell at blocks of 5 units. Sellers personality taken into account. The online scenario, everyone trying to click on the cheapest price Slide 17 Data Analysis Cont. Period 6-11, after everyone learned Sellers Constraints Slide 18 Period 6 Slide 19 Period 9 Slide 20 Observations Periods 6 and 9 (similar pattern) Buyers not buying as much in the beginning, transaction concentrated towards the end. Drop down in average observed prices (140- 180), compared with the former cap of 200. General trend: price is going down, especially if we omit the out-liner/fluctuation of prices. The fluctuation prices are higher than the general trend prices. (Low price tickets achieving more quantities) Slide 21 Period 7 Slide 22 Period 8 Slide 23 Period 10 Slide 24 Period 11 Slide 25 Observations Periods 7, 8, and 10 Period 11 is not representative Besides the previous observations, we see more fluctuation in the middle, The fluctuation prices are lower than the general trend prices. (High price tickets achieving more quantities, especially for period 8) Sellers personality taken into account. The online scenario, everyone trying to click on the cheapest pricecheap ones always followed by high prices Slide 26 Price Analysis TrialMeanMedianStd DevMaxMin 1195.6196.02.9200190 2196.4197.02.8200185 3193.5194.02.3200189 4182.5189.011.8196160 5163.0161.518.9195134 6168.9171.511.5187145 7174.0 11.3200115 8164.5170.021.8200101 9173.4175.09.5200156 10151.5145.018.9185120 11160.2155.016.8198100 Slide 27 Quantities and Time Analysis Seconds#Transactions%Total 0-30557.9% 31-609513.7% 61-909914.3% 91-12013319.2% 121-15015722.6% 151-18016123.2% Slide 28 Price and Quantities for each sellers Slide 29 Seller 1 Slide 30 Slide 31 Seller 2 Slide 32 Slide 33 Seller 3 Slide 34 Load Factors TrialSeller 1Seller 2Seller 3 Total Sold Total IncurredLoad Factor 111317496081.7% 2152613546090.0% 311449647091.4% 423308616593.8% 5153611627088.6% 69507667094.3% 75539677095.7% 85475576095.0% 9247059910099.0% 100440 4597.8% 1149166718088.8% 69475092.5% Slide 35 Conclusion First, it is consistent throughout our experiment that the prices have been fluctuating, with a general downward trend, but still staying rather close to 200. Second, from a buyers perspective, and without the cancel option for buyers, the best strategy is either to wait toward the end and purchase a relatively cheap price, or to make the decision in the middle of the period, because that is the session where we see most fluctuations. Third, from a sellers perspective, the best strategy is mostly likely the one adopted by seller 2: starting off at a high price and steadily going downward within a given period. Slide 36 Further Thoughts Setup/real-life concerns Flexibility option for buyers Cancellation option for buyers Increasing cost for sellers Buyers can access historical information and can learn. Real life: Prices high towards the end, because airlines keep the prices up. Sellers personality, game theory perspective, best response not only to buyers, but also to other sellers Slide 37 Further Thoughts Hardly see drop down in last minute. No cancellation for buyers See more fluctuation in the middle (sellers trying to make it to the blocks of 5) Prices already rather low toward the end Observations might change if the subjects know its an airplane scenario