experian automotive quarterly briefing...december 31, 2017 (u.s. light duty vehicles only) u.s....
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Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Fourth quarter 2017 automotive market share trends and registrations
Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager and Consultant
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Today’s presentation
What’s on the Road
VIO by model year, segment, age and market share
U.S. light duty vehicles through December 31, 2017
New vehicle statistics for calendar year 2017
Marty Miller
Senior Product Manager, VIO
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U.S. and Canada total Vehicles in Operation = 316.6M
Light Duty
Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans
Cars and GVW Class 1 – 3
Medium & Heavy Duty
Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs,
Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors
GVW Class 4 - 8
Power Sports
Motorcycles, All-Terrain,
Utility Task, Snowmobiles
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What’s on the road today?
Light Duty Vehicles
Vehicles in Operation
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Source: Experian
Automotive as of
December 31, 2017
(U.S. light duty
vehicles only)
U.S. Vehicles In Operation – a 12 month view
Q4 2016
266millionVehicles on
the road
Q4 2017
271.4millionVehicles on
the road
17.1*
NEWVEHICLES
DEALER
42.7*
USEDVEHICLES
200*
NOCHANGES
11.7*EXIT
Out of Operation
*In millions;
U.S. totals include Puerto Rico
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U.S. VIO change by model year (in millions)Q4 2016 to Q4 2017
Current 20
Model Years
85.6% of VIO
Current 25
Model Years
94.4% of VIO
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. VIO by manufacturer market share
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. VIO – drive wheel and cylinders market shares
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. VIO by Class and Vehicle Class Size
0.04%
10.84%
89.11%
Exotic
Luxury
Non-Luxury
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
VIO by Class
0.02%
3.37%
25.66%
26.67%
44.29%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Other
Sport
Full
Small
Mid-Size
VIO by Class Size
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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• 6 to 12 model year old vehicles
• Aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any repairs
• Likely require more part replacement & services (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops using parts from aftermarket part manufacturers
• Sizing the Sweet Spot helps identify overall market potential and changes can have implications to those that service it
The Aftermarket “Sweet Spot”
• 13 model years old & older
• Less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value
“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles
• 5 model years old & newer; many covered by the vehicle’s manufacturer warranty
• Identifies models coming into the Sweet Spot
“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles
The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined
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U.S. trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)
30.7% vehicles within
“Sweet Spot”
(MY2006 – 2012)Pre-Sweet
Spot
Post-Sweet
Spot
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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U.S. Sweet Spot vehicles – domestic vs import brands
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
Pre-Sweet
Spot
Post-Sweet
Spot
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January – December 2017
Experian Stats – New and Used
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Total New and Used registrations
Source: Experian Automotive January-December 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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New retail registrations by manufacturer and vehicle type
Other
Source: Experian Automotive January-December 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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Luxury brand new retail registrations
Source: Experian Automotive January-December 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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New retail registrations by state
Source: Experian Automotive January-December 2017 (light duty vehicles only)
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• Total light duty VIO continues to grow to 271.4 million in the U.S.
• VIO market share for GM and Ford continues to decline as older vehicles move out of operation
• Sweet Spot continues to decline, yet expected growth in 2018
• Calendar year 2017 new registrations
– Total New registrations are down 0.85% over 2016
– Crossovers, SUVs and wagons are the dominate vehicle type
– Luxury vehicle registrations over the last 5 years exceed VIO market
Summary
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