expected return & performance overview of squrpharma

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Performance OverviewOF

A COMPANYS STOCKFor the months February and March, 2010

AND

THE EXPECTED RETURN OF THE STOCK IN

THE YEAR 2010



2

Performance OverviewOF

A COMPANYS STOCKFor the months February and March, 2010

AND

THE EXPECTED RETURN OF THE STOCKIN THE YEAR 2010

P R E P A R E D F O R

Tashfeen Hussain

Faculty

Department of Finance and Accounting

School of Business

North South University

P R E P A R E D B Y (STUDENTS OF FIN 435.2)

Abdullah Al Habib (ID # 071 398 030)

Rayan Saif (ID # 071 125 030)

Touhidul Huq Khan (ID # 071 627 030)

Md. Rezwanul Hoque (ID # 072 185 030)

Shohan Ahmed (ID # 073 337 030)

April 20, 2010



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Tashfeen Hussain

Faculty

Department of Finance and Accounting

School of Business

North South University

Dear Sir:

Here is the report on the perf ormance overview of a companys stock (Square Pharmaceutical)

in the capital market f or the past two months February and March 2010, you asked us to

conduct on March 22, 2010.

As you will see, our analysis on the perf ormance overview of the companys stock in the capital

was done by analyzing the secondary market f or the past two months mentioned above.

According to our knowledge and understanding of the f ollowing matter, we have prepared an

analysis report on the perf ormance of the companys stock as well as f orecasted the expected

return f or the stock in 2010. We hope that our analysis and conclusion will help the readers

understand the perf ormance of the companys stock f or the f ollowing two months as well as

get a f orecast on f uture position of the companys stock.

We appreciate being assigned to this project.

Sincerely yours,

Abdullah Al Habib (ID # 071 398 030)

Rayan Saif (ID # 071 125 030)

Touhidul Huq Khan (ID # 072 627 030)

Md. Rezwanul Hoque (ID # 072 185 030)

Shohan Ahmed (ID # 073 337 030)



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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction «««««««««««««..««««««.««««««.1-2

2. Organizational Overview ««..««««««««««««««««.3-4

3. Theoretical Perspective ««««««««.««««««..«««««.5-7

4. Findings and Analysis« ««««««««««««..«««««....8-20

4.1. Performance overview of the company¶s stock «««««««8-13

4.2. The expected return of the stock for the year 2010««««.14-20

5. Conclusion «««««««««..««««««««««««««««.«..21

6. Appendix««««««««««««««««««««««««««...22-26

7. Reference««««««««««««««««««««««««««««..27



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1. Introduction

1.1 Origin

The report is prepared on the basis of instructions given by Tashfeen Hussain, instructor of the course Investment Theory (FIN 435). It is prepared by a group of five students of FIN 435

based on the perf ormance overview of a companys stock in the capital market f or the past two

months February and March, 2010 and the expected return of the stock in the year 2010. The

required market data f or the past two months was collected from DSE.

1.2 Objective

The objective of this report is to gain an idea about the perf ormance of the selected companys

stock in the capital market as well as the expectations regarding the companys stock to the

stakeholders. The project is done in the context of financial calculations. The project can be

divided into two parts

1. Perf ormance overview of the companys stock in the last two months February and

March.

2. The expected return of the stock f or the year 2010

1.3 ScopeCapital or stock market data of Square Pharmaceuticals Limited, a well known pharmaceutical

company, was collected f or the report. The perf ormance analysis was prepared based on the

data of the past two months staring from January 26 to March 31. The secondary market data

was collected from the company website as well as from Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

1.4 Methodology

Secondary data f or this report regarding the stock market and Square Pharmaceuticals stock

was collected from various newspapers, websites and also the website of the stock exchange.

The secondary data was the main source of the report and many articles regarding the

perf ormance of the companys stock in the capital market was also very helpf ul. Primary data

regarding certain estimates and f uture assumptions of the capital market was collected from

capital market investors as well as from the Stock Exchange.



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1.5 Limitations and Assumptions

y Unavailability of data was a ma jor constraint in the project preparation. Sufficient

accessible data would have helped f or a better in depth analysis of the topic and possibly

more accurate findings

y Time constraint was a key obstacle in our preparation of a thoroughly researched project.

Due to lack of available time we had to make do with only the available inf ormation and not

go f or more extensive data.

y Lack of prof ound experience regarding the course kept the preparation of the project

limited to certain level of models and calculations and hence might not have produced most

accurate result.

y The price of a share in the secondary capital market in Bangladesh varies on a high scale to

other variables other than the market risk. The market risk seemed to be inf luenced more

by psychological factors rather than reacting to accurate market f luctuations resulting from

the appropriate usage of market inf ormation and has thus affected our calculation of the

regressed beta.



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2. Organizational Overview

2.1. Company Profile

Square Pharmaceuticals Limited

Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is the largest pharmaceutical company in Bangladesh and it has

been continuously in the 1stposition among all national and multinational companies since

1985. It was established in 1958 and converted into a public limited company in 1991.

SQUARE today symbolizes a name a state of mind. But its journey to the growth and

prosperity has been no bed of roses. From the inception in 1958, it has today burgeoned into

one of the top line conglomerates in Bangladesh. Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd., the f lagship

company, is holding the strong leadership position in the pharmaceutical industry of

Bangladesh since 1985 and is now on its way to becoming a high perf ormance global player.

Subsidiary Companies

y Square Cephalosporins Ltd

y Square Biotechs Ltd. y Square Multifabrics Limited

Squares product portfolio is divided into four parts:

y Pharmaceuticals products

y Basic chemicals

y AgroVet products

y Pesticides products

Squares sister concerns-

y Square Textiles Ltd.

y Square Spinnings Ltd.

y Square Toiletries Limited

y Square Consumer Products Ltd.



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y Square Knit Fabrics Ltd

y Square Inf omatix Ltd.

y Square Agro Development and Processing Ltd.

y Square Hospitals Ltd.

y Square Herbal and Nutraceuticals Ltd.

Company Profile

Company name Square Pharmaceuticals Limited

Sector Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Product/Services Manufacture and distribution of pharmaceuticals

Company Address Square Centre, 48 Mohakhali C/A, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh

Number of Employees 3,564

Company Website www.squarepharma.com.bd

Year of Establishment 1958

Year of Listing 1995

Capital Assets BDT 1112 Billion

Annual Revenue Around BDT 1.2 Billion

Authorized Capital BDT 5,000 Million

Paid-up Capital BDT 1207.22 Million

2.2 Corporate Focus

As per vision, mission and objectives; they are to emphasize on the quality of product, process

and services leading to growth of the company imbibed with good governance.

Square Pharmaceuticals Objective

Objectives of the Company; are to conduct transparent business operation based on market

mechanism within the legal & social frame work with aims to attain the mission ref lected by

their vision.



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3. Theoretical Perspective

As main objective of the course is to evaluate the perf ormance of the cement industry in the

capital market, we have used some theories which will be helpf ul f or us to evaluate and analyze

the perf ormance and activities of the cement industry in the year 2008 and 2009. So bef ore analyzing the perf ormance, we have discussed the concepts of the theories we have used

f urther f or analysis.

3.1 Arithmetic mean

The arithmetic mean (or simply the mean) of a list of numbers is the sum of the entire list

divided by the number of items in the list. If the list is a statistical population, then the mean of

that population is called a population mean. If the list is a statistical sample, we call the

resulting statistic a sample mean. The mean is the most commonly-used type of average and is

of ten referred to simply as the average. The term "mean" or "arithmetic mean" is preferred in

mathematics and statistics to distinguish it from other averages such as the median and the

mode.

If we denote a set of data by X = (x1, x2, ..., xn), then the sample mean is typically denoted with

a horizontal bar over the variable ( ,enunciated "x bar"). It is computed in the f ollowing way-

The arithmetic men or average is usef ul f or f orecasting the perf ormance of the quarterly

returns using the particular sample of historic returns. Though it is not that much technically

correct, but still it is used to come up with a quicker estimation of f orecasting.

3.2 Geometric mean:

The geometric mean, in mathematics, is a type of mean or average, which indicates the central

tendency or typical value of a set of numbers. It is similar to the arithmetic mean, which is what

most people think of with the word "average", except that instead of adding the set of numbers

and then dividing the sum by the count of numbers in the set, n, the numbers are multiplied

and then the nth root of the resulting product is taken.

The geometric average of the quarterly returns of a portf olio is equal to the single-per period

return that would give the same cumulative perf ormance as the sequence of the actual returns.

We calculate the geometric average by compounding the actual period by period returns then

finding the equivalent single-per period returns.



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= = 0.0829 or 8.29%

The geometric return is also called a time weighted average return because it ignores the

quarter to quarter variation in f unds under management. The geometric mean or average is

more technically correct as it does not weight returns in one period more heavily than those in

other periods. So it is more technically correct than the arithmetic mean.

3.4 Standard deviation

To understand the concept of the standard deviation, we have to understand the concept of

variance first. Variance is the expected value of the squared deviation from the mean, the

greater the dispersion of the expected returns and higher the uncertainty or risk of the

investment. The variance would be calculated with the f ollowing f ormula-

Variance =

Variance and the standard deviation are used to measure the risk of a portf olio with help of the

expected return and the probability. The possible drawback of the standard deviation and

variance as a measure of risk is that, they use positive deviations and negative deviations from

the expected returns symmetrically. If the distribution of the return is symmetric, then standard

deviation will approximate risk measures that f ocus solely on negative deviations. In the special

case that the distribution of the returns is approximately normal; the standard deviation will be

perfectly adequate to measure risk. Standard deviation is the square root of variance.

3.5 Beta

The beta or (i) is calculated by running a regression with the historical returns on the stock as

the dependent variable and the historical returns on the market proxy as the independent

variable. The regression is done taking the daily return of the stock and market proxy, so that

we can get a better and appropriate result. Beta is calculated with the f ollowing f ormula-

BETA ( i) = COV iM / 2M

Beta also identifies the responsiveness of the stocks to the market riskiness and how they are

perf orming f or those risks.



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3.7 Capital market:

A capital market is a market f or securities (debt or equity), where business enterprises

(companies) and governments can raise long-term f unds. It is defined as a market in which

money is provided f or periods longer than a year, as the raising of short-term f unds takes place

on other markets (e.g., the money market). The capital market includes the stock market

(equity securities) and the bond market (debt). Financial regulators, such as the Govt. or the

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), oversee the capital markets in their designated

jurisdictions to ensure that investors are protected against fraud, among other duties. Capital

markets may be classified as primary markets and secondary markets. In primary markets, new

stock or bond issues are sold to investors via a mechanism known as underwriting. In the

secondary markets, existing securities are sold and bought among investors or traders, usually

on a securities exchange, over-the-counter, or elsewhere. We are working on the secondary

market of the stock exchange of Bangladesh where we are analyzing the perf ormance of the

cement industry in the capital market in Bangladesh.

3.8 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

In finance, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used to determine a theoretically

appropriate required rate of return of an asset, if that asset is to be added to an already well-

diversified portf olio, given that assets non-diversifiable risk. The model takes into account the

asset's sensitivity to non-diversifiable risk (also known as systematic risk or market risk) as well

as the expected return of the market and the expected return of a theoretical risk-free asset.

For individual securities, we make use of the security market line (SML) and its relation to

expected return and systematic risk (beta) to show how the market must price individual

securities in relation to their security risk class. The SML enables us to calculate the reward-to-

risk ratio f or any security in relation to that of the overall market. Theref ore, when the

expected rate of return f or any security is def lated by its beta coefficient, the reward-to-risk

ratio f or any individual security in the market is equal to the market reward-to-risk ratio.

The relationship between and required return is plotted on the securities market line (SML)

which shows expected return as a f unction of . The intercept is the nominal risk-free rate

available f or the market, while the slope is E(Rm R f ). The securities market line can be

regarded as representing a single-factor model of the asset price, where Beta is exposure to

changes in value of the Market. The equation of the SML is thus:

It is a usef ul tool in determining if an asset being considered f or a portf olio offers a reasonable

expected return f or risk.



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4. Analysis and Findings

4.1 Performance overview of the companys stock

We have started tracking our selected stock, Square Pharmaceuticals from the last week of the month of January. The shares of square pharmaceuticals fall in the A category shares and it is

under the pharmaceuticals industry. Among the pharmaceuticals industry there are about 19

more companies whose shares are been traded in the capital market. We have tracked our

selected stock till the end of the month of March. So, accumulating all these data we can say

that we tracked the stock of Square Pharmaceuticals in the capital market in the two months

that are February and March.

The theoretical perspectives discussed above are used to analyze the data f ound from the stock

tracking and these theories and instruments also helped us to f orecast f or the f uture or the

recent upcoming days. We have use the theories to do the daily analysis and also f or the weekly

analysis. The daily and weekly analysis of the stock of the Square Pharmaceuticals are discussed

below-

Daily data analysis

3100.00

3200.00

3300.00

3400.00

3500.00

3600.00

3700.00

3800.00

3900.00

2 6 - 1 - 2 0 0 6

2 8 - 1 - 2 0 0 8

1 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

3 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

7 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

9 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

1 1 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

1 5 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

1 7 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

2 2 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

2 4 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

2 8 - 2 - 2 0 1 0

2 - 3 - 2 0 1 0

4 - 3 - 2 0 1 0

8 - 3 - 2 0 1 0

1 0 - 3 - 2 0 1 0

1 4 - 3 - 2 0 1 0

1 6 - 3 - 2 0 1 0

2 1 - 3 - 2 0 1 0

2 3 - 3 - 2 0 1 2

2 5 - 3 - 2 0 1 4

2 9 - 3 - 2 0 1 6

3 1 - 3 - 2 0 1 8

Comparison of High, Low and Closing Price of Square

Pharmaceutical's Stock

LOW

HIGH

CLS PRICE



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Price

Looking into the pricing of the Square Pharmaceuticals in the stock market, we can see that the

highest price of the stock was 3746.75 taka which was on the 9th

February and the lowest price

of the stock was 3387.75 taka which was on the 26th

of January, 2010. ( See Appendix). If we see

closely in the prices of the stock, we can see that the prices actually started rising from the last

week of the January. This was because of the market inefficiency. Lots of news and issues about

the stock exchange were unknown to the investors and the shareholders. For this reason, just

by depending on some positive rumors, the price of the stock was going up rapidly. The prices

went up till the second week of the month of February and af ter that it started to decline. This

was because a crucial meeting to take some decisions about the stock market was been

cancelled which made a negative impact on the stock prices of most shares.

Looking in to the industry f or the pricing of the stock, the highest priced stock in the

pharmaceuticals industry was stock of Renata Pharmaceuticals with the highest price of 13,222taka and lowest priced stock in the industry was the stock of Keya Detergent with the highest

price of 93.30 taka. But only looking into the price, we cannot say that Renata Pharmaceuticals

was the best or Keya Detergent was the worst companies in the industry.

Daily Return Standard Deviation Geometric Mean Beta

ACI( ACI Limited. ) -0.02% 1.22% -0.030% 0.26317

ACIFORMULA( ACI Formulations Limited ) -0.13% 1.20% -0.141% 0.35355

AMBEEPHA( Ambee Pharma ) -0.14% 2.29% -0.170% 0.46301

BANGLAPRO( Bangla Process ) -0.10% 0.68% -0.105% -0.03818

BXPHARMA( Beximco Pharma ) -0.02% 1.71% -0.037% 0.45337

BXSYNTH( Beximco Synthetics ) 0.04% 1.92% 0.022% 0.20982 GLAXOSMITH( Glaxo SmithKline ) -0.04% 4.24% -0.129% 0.57957

IBNSINA( The Ibn Sina ) -0.18% 1.39% -0.184% 0.26083

IMAMBUTTON( Imam Button ) -0.11% 2.87% -0.147% 0.43919

KEYACOSMET( Keya Cosmetics ) 0.42% 3.03% 0.379% 0.72297

KEYADETERG( Keya Detergent ) 0.58% 2.77% 0.546% 0.53563

KOHINOOR( Kohinoor Chemicals ) 0.05% 2.42% 0.026% 0.00510

LIBRAINFU( Libra Inf usions Limited ) -0.39% 2.09% -0.416% -0.02797

MARICO( Marico Bangladesh Limited ) -0.22% 2.76% -0.259% 1.29921

ORIONINFU( Orion Inf usion ) -0.22% 2.16% -0.238% 0.57703

PHARMAID( Pharma Aids ) -0.21% 2.42% -0.237% 0.04328

RECKITTBEN( Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. ) -0.03% 3.46% -0.091% -0.11084

RENATA( Renata Ltd. ) -0.15% 2.29% -0.178% 0.41307

SQURPHARMA( Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. ) 0.14% 1.07% 0.139% 0.31065

TBL( Therapeutics ) -0.23% 2.27% -0.253% -0.44594

INDUSTRY -0.05% 1.02%

INDUSTRY (GM ) -0.075%

DSE Gen Index 0.15% 1.42% 0.142%



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Return

The perf ormance of a stock in the capital market mainly depends on the return or the changes

in price of a stock. As mentioned earlier we need to calculate the return of the stock f or

example the closing price of Square Pharmaceuticalss stock on January 26 and January 27,

were BDT 3387.50 taka and 3505.25 taka respectively.

Stock Return = (Todays Market Price Yesterdays Market Price) / Yesterdays Market Price

= (3505.25 3387.50) / 3387.50 * 100%

= 3.47%

The daily stock returns in the whole pharmaceuticals industry is given in the appendix-

If we see the return of the Square Pharmaceuticals on the daily basis, we could see that, the

highest return on the stock was 3.48% which was on the 27th of January and the lowest return

of -1.23% was on the 22nd

of February. The prices of the stock was higher in last week of

January which is been mentioned above than that of February. So f or this reason, the returns of

the stock was becoming negative, but still it ended up with a positive return of 0.47% till the

month of March. Square had the average daily return of 0.14%.

Looking into the industry f or the return analysis we can see that the company that is having the

highest returns in the capital market is Keya Detergent. Though Keya detergent had the lowest

share price in the market, but still it had got the highest average daily return of 0.58%. Other

than this, most of the companys average daily returns were negative and the lowest dailyaverage return in the industry was -0.39% and the company having that lowest average daily

return was Libra Infusions.

The industry average daily return in the month of February and March was -0.05% and the DSE

general index on average return was 0.15%. So in a whole, if we take the return into account,

we can say that the stock of Square Pharmaceuticals did not perf orm that bad in the capital

market, though their return was very low and it created a negative image in the minds of the

investors.

The daily average return is the arithmetic mean of the return of the stock and it is nottechnically correct to evaluate a stocks return and its perf ormance. To be technically more

correct we have to take into account, the geometric mean of the returns of the stocks in the

capital market.



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Geometric mean of the return

While the mean is of ten used to report central tendency, arithmetic mean is greatly inf luenced

by outliers. When computing the rate of return where there are too many f luctuations in the

data it is better to find the average using the geometric mean, not the arithmetic mean because

geometric mean is technically more correct.

The geometric mean of the Square Pharmaceuticals is almost equal to the arithmetic mean. The

geometric mean was 0.139% and the arithmetic mean was 0.14%. So the difference between

them is negligible. It is so because the f luctuations in return are not that much high in other

words the standard deviation from the mean is low. There is a slight difference between the

geometric mean and the arithmetic mean of the industry which are -0.075% and -0.05%

respectively. So looking into the geometric mean of the industry we can say that Square

Pharmaceuticals have perf ormed well in the market in the tracking period. The geometric mean

and the arithmetic mean of the DSE general index was also close which were 0.142% and 0.15%respectively.

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation shows how much variation there is from the average or mean. It helps to

measure uncertainty or risk of an investment and compare the risk and return f or alternative

investments directly. A low standard deviation indicates that volatility or risk of investing in the

stock is low, whereas high standard deviation indicates that the data are spread out over a large

range of values and volatility of the historical returns is high. Risk is an important factor in

determining the efficiency of an investment because it determines the variation in returns on

the asset and gives investors a mathematical basis f or investment decisions. The overall

concept of risk is that as it increases, the expected return on the asset will increase as a result

of the risk premium earned in other words, investors should expect a higher return or loss on

an investment when said investment carries a higher level of risk, or uncertainty of that return.

Looking into the standard deviation of the stock returns of the Square Pharmaceuticals, we can

see that the standard deviation in the month of February and March was 1.07%. It means that

the return can deviate from the mean return by 1.07%. Though, the standard deviation is

higher than 1, but still it can be considered low f or the company.

In the industry, the highest standard deviation of 4.24% was owned by the Glaxo-smithcline

company. This was because the volatility of their prices in the stock market is very high and f or

this reason the return on average may f luctuate from the mean by 4.24%. The company that

was having the lowest standard deviation of 0.68% was Bangla Process company and it



16

indicates that their prices did not f luctuate that much in the market and as a result their return

from the mean can deviate only by 0.68%.

The average standard deviation of the whole pharmaceuticals industry was 1.02% and the

average standard deviation of the DSE general index was 1.42%.

Beta

The beta is calculated by running a regression with the historical returns on the stock as the

dependent variable and the historical returns on the market proxy as the independent variable.

The regression is done taking the daily return of the stock and market proxy.

The share prices ref lect the market risk if it is moving in the direction of the market proxy that is

the DSE General Price Index. A standardized measure of systematic risk based upon the assets covariance with the market return. Beta indicates the responsiveness of the stock to the market

risk. Beta is calculated by-

BETA ( i) = COV iM / 2M

Looking into the data of Square Pharmaceuticals in the capital market we find that the beta of

the company in the months of February and March was 0.31 and it shows the standardized

measure of risk is 0.31 and the responsive of the stock to the overall market risk was 0.31 which

is actually very low.

Looking into the industry, we can see that the company having the highest beta of 1.299 is

Marico Bangladesh and it truly shows that the company is having the stocks the responses to

the market risk and also changes according to the market. The company having the lowest beta

is TBL (Therapeutics) which had the lowest beta of -0.44 and it indicates that the

responsiveness to the overall market risk is very low in the stocks of the company and it might

suffer miserably in the upcoming recent f uture.



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W eekly return

Weekly Return

WEEK SQUARE INDUSTRY INDEX

Return % Change Return % Change Return % Change

1 1.44% -3.36% 1.25%

2 1.31% -0.13% -2.12% 1.24% 2.65% 1.41%

3 -1.91% -3.22% 0.38% 2.50% 0.27% -2.38%

4 0.10% 2.01% -1.13% -1.51% 1.08% 0.81%

5 -0.56% -0.66% -0.03% 1.11% 1.45% 0.36%

6 -0.61% -0.05% -2.11% -2.08% -1.83% -3.28%

7 1.22% 1.83% 2.25% 4.36% 0.62% 2.46%

8 2.02% 0.80% 4.18% 1.93% 1.26% 0.64%

We have also analyzed the weekly return of the Square Pharmaceuticals stock in the capital

market. The weekly return was calculated by taking the percentage change in price of the stock

over the week.

Weekly Stock Return = (Thursdays Price Sundays Price) / Sundays price

Looking into the data of the weekly return we can see that the highest weekly return was on

the last week of March and also the last week of our tracking and the return was 2.02%. This

was because, af ter a bit of price decline in the month of February, the stock prices had started

to go back to its previous stages. The lowest return from the stock was -1.91% which was on the

third week and on the month of February.

If we compare it to the industry, the industry weekly return was also in the highest position in

the last week of March and it was 4.18% and it clearly shows that, af ter a long time the industry

had started to get back in a profitable stage.

Looking into the whole market we find that the highest return from the stock was on the

second week of our stock tracking and it was on the month of February. But at that time neither

the Square Pharmaceuticals nor the Pharmaceuticals industry did well in the market.



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4.1 The expected return of the stock for the year 2010

The expected return of a companys stock depends on three factors

i. How the economy is expected to perf orm

ii. The outlook of the industry

iii. How the particular company is doing

For f orecasting the expected return we have analyzed the market data of Square

Pharmaceuticals stock f or the last two years starting from January 2008 to December 2009. We

have used the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) as well as Blooms Forecasting model f or

calculating the expected return.

Firstly it was necessary to identif y how the pharmaceutical industry and the capital market

were perf orming in respect to Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. It is also necessary to understand

the economic condition of the past two years. Since extensive analysis of the relationship

between the capital market and economy shows that the market returns act as an indicator of

the upcoming economic conditions. So high market returns favorably shows that the economy

will be undergoing a boom very shortly and low return indicates an economic recession.

So base on the above analysis we are assuming that the market return is showing the economic

conditions of the country. If we study the market conditions of both the year we will see that

the market has moved through many ups and downs in the last two years.

If we study the market data closely we can conclude that the market return in 2008. Investors

were reluctant to invest in the capital market. In simple words 2008 has been quite a difficult

year f or the capital market. The reason behind this is the fall in share prices of most of the

companies in the capital market along with the global recession, political unrest and the

unwillingness of investor to invest in capital market. We can roughly assume the countrys

economy was moving through a recession.

In 2009, Dhaka Stock Exchange had record breaking transaction amounts. The overall market

return was better than the previous year. The stock returns of most of the companies increased

by a considerable amount over the year. The investors were willing to invest since the world

was recovering from the global recession and Bangladesh was politically more stable in 2009. We can roughly assume the countrys economy was moving through a boom.



19

MONTH Industry

DSE Gen

Index SQURPHARMA Perf ormance

January-08 9.38% -3.38% -8.10% Bad

February-08 8.58% 1.42% -0.04% Average

March-08 46.05% 3.44% 16.45% Good

April-08 -0.28% 1.56% 8.66% Average

May-08 4.31% 2.13% 12.99% Average

June-08 -4.69% -6.47% 1.14% Average

July-08 6.77% -8.85% -25.22% Bad

August-08 -3.87% 3.76% -26.41% Bad

September-08 3.67% 5.18% -6.98% Average

October-08 1.48% -8.42% 4.27% Average

November-08 -12.34% -8.04% -2.94% Bad

December-08 11.29% 11.06% 9.09% Good

January-09 14.08% -5.63% -5.04% Average

February-09 10.80% -3.41% -0.89% Average

March-09 -0.23% -6.83% 0.23% Average

April-09 -5.85% 4.55% -3.29% Average May-09 6.04% 1.30% 14.42% Good

June-09 11.51% 15.91% 16.83% Good

July-09 7.87% -5.06% -12.77% Bad

August-09 3.57% 0.01% -24.40% Bad

September-09 13.27% 4.53% 10.42% Good

October-09 1.98% 7.72% -1.38% Average

November-09 -4.70% 29.15% 9.78% Good

December-09 11.35% 2.52% -3.68% Average

Average Monthly

Return 5.83% 1.59% -0 .7 0 %

200 8 5.8 6% -0 .55% -1.42%

200 9 5.8 1% 3.73% 0 .12%

The above table shows the monthly stock, industry and market return f or 2008 and 2009. Since

more diversif y the portf olio is, the more it will ref lect the market risk premium, so the DSE

General Index is taken as the market proxy. The returns are calculated by taking the percentage

change in the closing price. The difference in the closing price of the first day of the month and

the last day of the month is taken as the change in closing price. The market return was

calculated in the similar fashion.

Monthly Return = (Months ending price months beginning price) / months beginning price

= (closing price of Jan 31 closing price of Jan 1) / closing price of Jan 1



20

The industry average was calculated by taking the average stock return of most of the

companies in the industry. The industry return is reasonably better than the market return

because the demand f or pharmaceutical products declines very little since the demand is

inelastic. The companies that are included in the industry average are

AMBEE PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED BANGLADESH CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

BANGLA PROCESS INDUSTRIES LIMITED WATA CHEMICALS LIMITED

BEXIMCO PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED NATIONAL POLYMER INDUSTRIES LIMITED

GLAXOSMITHKLINE BANGLADESH LTD. BEXIMCO SYNTHETICS LIMITED

ADVANCED CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED LIBRA INFUSIONS LTD.

PETRO SYNTHETIC PRODUCTS LTD. ORION INFUSION LTD.

RENATA LIMITED SQUARE PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

PHARMACO INTERNATIONAL LTD. IMAM BUTTON INDUSTRIES LIMITED

RECKITT BENCKISER(BANGLADESH) LTD. PERFUME CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES LTD.

THERAPEUTICS(BANGLADESH) LIMITED KEYA COSMETICS LTD.

PHARMA AIDS LIMITED AL-AMIN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES LTD.

KOHINOOR CHEMICAL COMPANY(BANGLADESH) LTD. KEYA DETERGENT LTD. THE IBN SINA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY LTD. ACI FORMULATIONS LIMITED

RAHMAN CHEMICALS LIMITED MARICO BANGLADESH LIMITED

From the above data we can draw a graph on the monthly returns of the two years.

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

R e t u r n s

Stock, Market and Industry Return in 2008 and 2009

Industry DSE Gen Index SQURPHARMA



21

By studying the graph and above data we can see that the return on Squares stock was poor or

very low in 2008 compared to the industry though it was considerably better in 2009. If you

consider the economic condition which is indicated by the market, we can see that the

economy has roughly completed one economic cycle since it was in recession in 2008 and there

was a boom in 2009, whereas the industry perf ormed similarly in both the years. Around one -f ourth time in the 24 month time period Squares stock en joyed good return and in the same

ratio it has faced bad returns, rest of the month it had an average return. From the above study

we can conclude that in terms of the probability of Squares returns.

Condition Probability

Good 0.25

Average 0.50

Bad 0.25

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

The cost of capital is calculated by the equation

RRRe = R(rf) + { R(m) - R(rf) } *

R(rf ) = Return on risk free rate

R(m) = Market Return

(i) = Regressed beta.

We can use this f ormula to estimate the f uture return of a stock. The required rate of return is calculated by taking the risk free rate and risk premium of past years. For find the expected

return of the asset the f uture risk premiums must be determined as well as the expected risk

free rate in the upcoming year. The f ormula can be written in a modified f orm f or calculating of

the expected return.

E(R) = E(rf) + { E(m) - E(rf) } *

The Beta which shows the firms systematic risk in correspondence with the market risk is the

same f or both the equation since it is believed that the amount of risk in the asset over the

market risk is constant over time.



22

The risk-free interest rate is the interest rate that it is assumed can be obtained by investing in

financial instruments with no default risk. However, the financial instrument can carry other

types of risk. The interest rate on government bonds is a close substitution to the risk free rate

because the default risk is zero or assumed to be zero.

Bangladesh Bank currently has three types of Bonds available.

1. US Dollar Premium Bond @ 7.5%

2. US Dollar Investment Bond @ 6.5%

3. Wage-Earner Development Bond @ variable rates depending on the maturity date.

The average of the interest can be approximated as the risk free rate. The market is currently

using 7.5% as the risk free rate according to DSE and other financial institutions, drawn by

finance experts. Since the maturity of the bonds is beyond 2010, so we can safely assume the risk free rate to be 7.5% in 2010 f or our calculation.

Table Extract ( The calculation is done on excel and due some constrain only the results are

shown) Stock price from Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 30, 2009

Date Stock Price Stock Return DSE Gen Index Market Return

January 1, 2008 3,737.00 3,008.91

January 2, 2008 3,593.75 -3.83% 2,959.36 -1.65%

January 3, 2008 3,579.00 -0.41% 2,979.49 0.68%

January 6, 2008 3,499.25 -2.23% 2,929.33 -1.68%

January 7, 2008 3,520.50 0.61% 2,922.86 -0.22%

January 8, 2008 3,553.25 0.93% 2,947.03 0.83%

January 9, 2008 3,593.75 1.14% 2,989.36 1.44%

January 10, 2008 3,553.25 -1.13% 2,993.16 0.13%

December 22, 2009 2,851.75 1.08% 4,408.96 1.84%

December 23, 2009 2,871.25 0.68% 4,428.07 0.43%

December 24, 2009 2,837.50 -1.18% 4,429.19 0.03%

December 27, 2009 2,836.00 -0.05% 4,475.44 1.04%

December 29, 2009 2,858.00 0.78% 4,519.36 0.98%

December 30, 2009 2,876.25 0.64% 4,535.53 0.36%

The stock return was calculated by taking the difference of the stock prices of two consecutive

dates and was divided by the earlier date price. It shows how much the stock price has grown

or fallen according to the previous days price. The market return is calculated similarly.

Return = (Todays Market Price Yesterdays Market Price) / Yesterdays Market Price



23

The beta or (i) is calculated by running a regression with the historical returns on the stock as

the dependent variable and the historical returns on the market proxy as the independent

variable. Since more diversif y the portf olio is, the more it will ref lect the market risk premium,

so the DSE General Index is taken as the market proxy. The regression is done taking the daily

return of the stock and market proxy, so that we can get a better result. Both the returns are calculated from January 2008 to December 2009. ( The calculation is done using excel and due

some constrain only the results are shown)

The regressed beta is calculated by a f ormula as f ollows:

BETA ( i ) = (COV i M / 2M )

= 0.000098 /0.000253

= 0.38701

The slope of the SML is equal to the Market Risk Premium and ref lects investors' degree of risk aversion

at a given time.

Market return and risk premium

The expected market return is calculated by using the Bloom f orecasting model

Average E (Rm) = [(T-1) * Geometric Mean + (N T) * Arithmetic mean] / (N-1)

The T is the f uture time period f or which the average return is to be calculated and N is the time

period of the historical data that is analyzed.

2008 2009 2008-2009

AM -0.02% 0.21% 0.10%

GM -0.03% 0.20% 0.09%

The table shows the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean of the daily market return f or

only 2008, only 2009 and also the two years combined. From the above graphs and tables that

we have previously analyzed we can say that the market had done poor in terms of

perf ormance in 2008 and good in 2009 and if we combine the two we get average perf ormance. If we use Bloom method with the f ollowing means we can find the market return

f or a good, average and poor perf ormance. Since according to capital asset pricing model the

stock return ref lects the market return to some extent so we can calculate the expected stock

return considering the three scenarios based on historical data.



24

Our data is calculated on a daily basis and there were 480 trading days in the time period of

January 2008 to December 2009. So we can assume that in 2010 we will have 240 trading days.

Yearly market return using Blooms model and the three market conditions

E(RM) - Good condition = [(240-1) * 0.20% + (480 240) * 0.21%] / (480-1) * 240

= 49.45%

E(RM) - Average condition = [(240-1) * 0.09% + (480 240) * 0.10%] / (480-1) * 240

= 21.95%

E(RM) - Poor condition = [(240-1) * -0.03% + (480 240) * -0.02%] / (480-1) * 240

= -6.46%

From the expected market return and the estimated risk free rate we can calculate the risk

premium on the market over the risk free rate.

As explained earlier the expected return on the stock is

E(R) = E(rf) + { E(m) - E(rf) } *

If the stock undergoes similar conditions than we can calculate the expected return of the stock

f or all the three scenarios

E(R) - Good condition = 7.5% + (49.45% - 7.5%) * 0.38701

= 23.73%

E(R) - Average condition = 7.5% + (21.95% - 7.5%) * 0.38701

= 13.09%

E(R) - Poor condition = 7.5% + (-6.46% - 7.5%) * 0.38701

= 2.10%

Now if we calculate the expected return based on the probability that we calculated earlier we

get.

Expected Return = 2.10% *0.25 + 13.09% * 0.50 + 23.73% * 0.25

= 13.00%

So the expected return on Square Pharmaceuticals stock in 2010 is f orecasted to be 13%.



25

5. Conclusion

From our analysis we can that the stock price of Square Pharmaceuticals was considerably high

during the early earlier weeks. As we moved through the weeks its stock price started declining

until the last two weeks of March when the price was again climbing upward. A declining price

movement as such assists investors who take a short position. During the month of February

Square Pharmaceuticals stock was very much applicable f or a short sale. The reason behind the

rapid decline in price was that the stock was over-valued.

The average return on the stock of 0.14% over the two months period was very low though it

was better than the industry average and was closer to the market average. Compare to the

risk of the market return and industry return, Squares stock had an average risk of 1.02%, since

the industry average was very close to this figure. The geometric mean which is technically

more correct in calculating the average return of the share since it takes the f luctuations in

share prices into consideration was 0.139%.

The expected stock return f or the year 2010 is 13% which is f orecasted by using capital asset

pricing model. If we consider the required rate of return of the asset over the similar period we

will see that the required rate of return is 13.67%. According to our knowledge if the expected

return is lower than the required rate of return than the asset is over-priced. From the

perf ormance overview of the stock which was conducted over the two months February and

March 2010 shows that the asset was overpriced during earlier period of this year, confirming

the fact that the asset is over-priced and expected return is higher than the required rate of

return.

RRRe = R(rf) + RP *

=7.5% + 15.89% * 0.38701

=13. 67%



26

6. Appendix

26-1-2006 27 -1-200 7 28 -1-200 8 31-1-200 9 1-2-2010 2-2-2010 3-2-2010 4-2-2

1 ACI Limited 509.70 518.10 520.60 511.50 510.70 522.80 517.20 510

2 ACI Formulations Limited 186.60 189.30 194.20 188.30 187.50 183.30 181.00 180

3 Ambee Pharma 284.30 277.60 282.70 277.90 280.20 275.20 271.10 269

4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149

5 Beximco Pharma 185.40 184.40 183.40 179.80 183.80 174.70 170.40 169

6 Beximco Synthetics 411.50 412.25 410.25 410.25 410.25 395.25 387.00 386

7 Glaxo SmithKline 856.10 862.20 854.80 844.40 842.50 838.60 806.30 819

8 The Ibn Sina 1621.00 1636.25 1667.00 1688.50 1737.25 1708.50 1672.50 1661

9 Imam Button 291.50 288.50 292.75 290.25 290.50 284.00 281.00 276

10 Keya Cosmetics 95.50 101.40 107.20 96.70 96.80 97.60 97.50 97.

11 Keya Detergent 68.70 71.40 72.80 66.90 66.30 68.20 68.60 68.

12 Kohinoor Chemicals 2273.25 2250.25 2250.00 2300.00 2325.50 2320.00 2320.00 2320

13 Libra Inf usions Limited 2222.50 2222.50 2222.50 2250.00 2171.75 2022.50 2105.00 2061

14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 496.90 507.20 521.50 508.50 508.20 507.40 496.00 496

15 Orion Inf usion 856.75 852.50 881.25 868.50 858.50 839.75 808.50 81116 Pharma Aids 3518.00 3518.00 3869.75 3842.00 3561.75 3629.50 3588.25 3589

17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1999.10 1912.50 1857.90 1895.10 1916.50 1785.00 1721.60 1721

18 Renata Ltd. 12999.50 12999.50 12999.50 13222.80 13165.50 13091.25 12505.00 1291

19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3387.50 3505.25 3604.25 3592.25 3577.75 3637.25 3617.50 3644

20 Therapeutics 605.75 605.75 600.00 619.00 578.75 570.00 570.00 562

DSE Gen Index 5243.44910 5310.74660 5390.48353 5367.10661 5575.15356 5503.37894 5399.64698 5434.0

7 -2-2010 8 -2-2010 9-2-2010 10-2-2010 11-2-2010 14-2-2010 15-2-2010

Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price

1 ACI Limited 510.80 509.30 510.10 511.00 512.10 520.10 538.90

2 ACI Formulations Limited 180.20 178.10 180.40 183.60 180.10 181.60 181.50 3 Ambee Pharma 274.20 268.70 270.80 266.60 260.10 253.70 247.10

4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00

5 Beximco Pharma 169.70 168.10 171.50 171.30 171.30 170.30 170.50

6 Beximco Synthetics 385.00 382.25 382.25 384.25 377.50 371.25 374.50

7 Glaxo SmithKline 829.50 818.00 822.30 818.10 711.50 836.60 909.00

8 The Ibn Sina 1674.50 1650.25 1640.75 1643.50 1667.50 1644.50 1632.25

9 Imam Button 275.75 274.50 271.50 273.00 260.75 256.25 261.50

10 Keya Cosmetics 97.60 96.10 98.90 104.00 103.40 103.70 110.10

11 Keya Detergent 67.50 66.30 68.60 72.20 72.60 72.60 75.50

12 Kohinoor Chemicals 2320.00 2200.00 2200.00 2200.00 2200.00 2200.00 2200.00

13 Libra Inf usions Limited 2061.00 2068.00 2068.00 1990.25 1965.00 1965.00 1965.00

14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 492.70 497.90 498.00 500.10 496.60 492.50 502.40

15 Orion Inf usion 812.25 797.75 784.50 776.50 767.75 780.75 808.75 16 Pharma Aids 3590.00 3518.75 3527.25 3389.00 3498.00 3478.75 3404.00

17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1721.60 1721.60 1689.80 1750.00 1630.00 1645.00 1698.90

18 Renata Ltd. 12584.50 12110.25 12535.25 11938.75 11900.00 12100.00 12225.00

19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3651.50 3675.75 3746.75 3729.75 3699.25 3722.25 3687.75

20 Therapeutics 574.00 574.00 551.00 560.00 554.50 547.50 530.00

DSE Gen Index 5490.10679 5552.85992 5603.18602 5600.73467 5635.72979 5745.36969 5728.91455



27

16-2-2010 17 -2-2010 18 -2-2010 22-2-2010 23-2-2010 24-2-2010 25-2-2010


1 ACI Limited 526.90 524.20 523.90 528.50 525.70 521.60 517.20

2 ACI Formulations Limited 178.50 179.30 179.20 179.80 177.90 176.80 178.00

3 Ambee Pharma 252.50 254.50 255.20 251.90 252.50 250.20 247.30

4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00

5

Beximco Pharma 169.10 168.40 168.90 1

70.80 1

72.50 1

7

1.50 169.20

6 Beximco Synthetics 368.25 362.75 366.75 365.25 369.00 364.00 361.25


8 The Ibn Sina 1622.25 1622.00 1616.25 1612.75 1562.25 1578.25 1595.25

9 Imam Button 259.23 256.50 257.00 248.25 249.50 245.00 245.00

10 Keya Cosmetics 114.80 117.30 118.60 117.80 112.30 113.10 113.30

11 Keya Detergent 77.30 78.70 79.50 77.10 75.30 75.10 75.60




15 Orion Inf usion 812.75 792.00 782.25 761.25 754.50 749.50 735.50

16 Pharma Aids 3393.00 3393.00 3382.50 3301.50 3244.25 3116.25 3106.50


18 Renata Ltd. 12224

.75

1217

2.00 1213

6.25

1175

8.75

11357

.75

114

11.75

11534

.00 19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3673.00 3655.50 3651.00 3606.25 3605.25 3570.50 3609.75

20 Therapeutics 530.00 521.00 520.25 510.00 505.75 508.00 508.00

DSE Gen Index 5745.78457 5828.38292 5760.94568 5622.99514 5607.36938 5691.02968 5683.92697

28 -2-2010 1-3-2010 2-3-2010 3-3-2010 4-3-2010 7 -3-2010 8 -3-2010


1 ACI Limited 509.70 508.50 505.30 508.80 516.50 513.20 508.00

2 ACI Formulations Limited 175.90 175.20 174.90 175.10 179.20 179.70 177.50

3 Ambee Pharma 246.00 243.90 253.90 253.10 262.40 260.40 256.30

4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00

5 Beximco Pharma 166.50 166.20 166.20 166.00 169.20 170.20 168.80 6 Beximco Synthetics 355.50 353.50 352.50 352.25 356.25 361.75 360.50


8 The Ibn Sina 1591.75 1591.75 1594.00 1590.25 1612.25 1568.50 1579.00

9 Imam Button 246.00 244.00 244.25 246.50 246.25 241.75 239.25

10 Keya Cosmetics 110.60 109.00 110.50 108.80 113.40 116.20 113.40

11 Keya Detergent 75.50 74.80 75.50 76.20 79.30 84.80 83.60




15 Orion Inf usion 733.50 732.75 722.50 725.50 724.00 721.00 707.75

16 Pharma Aids 3093.50 3136.50 3119.00 3185.00 3130.25 3158.25 3186.75


18 Renata Ltd. 11860.50 11310.00 11306.00 11019.50 11314.00 11611.50 11611.50 19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3596.25 3554.00 3529.50 3570.75 3576.00 3565.25 3554.00

20 Therapeutics 508.00 508.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 501.25

DSE Gen Index 5560.56104 5567.40015 5588.00609 5634.05998 5640.94367 5602.59453 5486.43492



28

9-3-2010 10-3-2010 11-3-2010 14-3-2010 15-3-2010 16-3-2010 18-3-2010 21-3-20

Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Pri

1 ACI Limited 505.20 507.60 505.50 495.20 497.20 508.30 505.50 505.6

2 ACI Formulations Limited 175.60 176.80 175.40 173.00 173.00 176.90 175.50 176.3

3 Ambee Pharma 253.60 258.70 253.50 249.40 246.10 251.90 248.30 255.5

4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.0

5

Beximco Pharma 167.20 168.

50 16

7.80 168.80 16

7.20 169.10 1

72.80 1

7

9.66 Beximco Synthetics 356.75 354.50 353.00 347.25 345.50 354.00 354.50 374.7

7 Glaxo SmithKline 807.50 831.70 833.20 817.60 806.00 834.70 845.10 846.2

8 The Ibn Sina 1587.50 1554.50 1556.75 1527.00 1509.50 1540.75 1573.50 1561.7

9 Imam Button 238.25 236.50 236.50 234.25 221.25 235.00 235.00 237.5

10 Keya Cosmetics 110.90 110.30 110.80 108.20 107.80 112.30 115.20 117.2

11 Keya Detergent 83.00 85.10 88.20 84.90 87.00 91.50 90.80 93.30

12 Kohinoor Chemicals 1920.00 1920.00 1900.00 1900.00 1900.00 1900.00 1900.00 1900.0

13 Libra Inf usions Limited 1733.75 1733.75 1675.00 1675.00 1675.00 1675.00 1660.00 1662.0

14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 398.20 405.10 408.20 400.40 395.10 409.60 404.20 434.0

15 Orion Inf usion 701.00 705.75 696.25 679.75 674.50 701.00 717.75 731.2

16 Pharma Aids 3124.75 3131.25 3157.50 3100.00 3049.00 3138.00 3180.00 3160.2

17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1690.00 1570.00 1572.00 1550.70 1550.70 1585.30 1664.40 1728.4

18 Renata Ltd. 11100.75

11345

.00 114

80.00 114

80.00 11100.00 113

10.00 115

27

.00 117

8019 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3535.75 3545.75 3543.50 3517.50 3490.75 3551.75 3560.50 3570.2

20 Therapeutics 501.25 501.25 499.25 499.25 499.25 480.00 500.00 500.0

DSE Gen Index 5400.39843 5519.66926 5499.83739 5375.07367 5338.13847 5460.75184 5408.66338 5548.22

22-3-2011 23-3-2012 24-3-2013 25-3-2014 28-3-2015 29-3-2016 30-3-2017 31-3-201

Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Price Cls Pric

1 ACI Limited 514.20 504.50 508.70 506.40 503.30 500.00 499.00 503

2 ACI Formulations Limited 177.80 176.10 176.80 176.90 177.60 177.00 175.10 175

3 Ambee Pharma 253.80 252.50 259.50 278.50 289.20 276.70 269.80 263

4 Bangla Process 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1149.00 1097

5 Beximco Pharma 178.80 175.10 182.40 187.70 191.30 187.00 185.50 182

6 Beximco Synthetics 385.50 376.00 376.00 381.00 406.00 411.00 423.50 415

7 Glaxo SmithKline 843.60 827.90 837.30 812.10 815.60 815.90 808.60 808

8 The Ibn Sina 1571.75 1573.25 1577.00 1538.00 1527.25 1534.00 1531.25 1494

9 Imam Button 261.25 261.75 277.80 292.25 299.75 282.50 283.25 273

10 Keya Cosmetics 116.40 113.00 116.20 113.80 111.60 110.50 113.40 112

11 Keya Detergent 92.40 89.80 91.10 89.60 88.10 87.20 88.20 87

12 Kohinoor Chemicals 1999.75 2182.25 2200.00 2200.00 2299.50 2299.00 2299.00 2299

13 Libra Inf usions Limited 1662.00 1744.50 1794.00 1794.25 1794.25 1810.00 1810.00 1849

14 Marico Bangladesh Limited 440.00 435.10 449.30 444.40 436.10 440.90 435.00 443

15 Orion Inf usion 770.25 743.50 770.00 806.00 811.25 790.50 777.00 771

16 Pharma Aids 3159.00 3149.50 3175.00 3215.25 3195.75 3170.00 3154.50 3168

17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. 1792.00 1787.50 1825.00 1888.60 1920.50 1920.50 1920.50 1920

18 Renata Ltd. 11898.50 11757.00 12014.00 12199.75 12149.50 12025.00 12016.75 12016

19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 3585.50 3593.25 3672.00 3642.50 3592.75 3584.00 3600.75 3600

20 Therapeutics 500.00 480.75 490.75 521.75 548.75 541.80 541.75 541

DSE Gen Index 5562.37507 5518.93777 5633.45597 5618.18735 5560.10116 5524.10662 5533.62294 5582.33



29

Square Pharmaceuticals High, Low and Closing Price of the stock

DATE LOW HIGH CLS PRICE

26-1-2006 3332.00 3410.00 3387.50

27-1-2007 3381.00 3518.00 3505.25

28-1-2008 3500.00 3625.00 3604.25

31-1-2009 3580.00 3648.00 3592.25 1-2-2010 3565.00 3599.00 3577.75

2-2-2010 3550.00 3694.50 3637.25

3-2-2010 3602.00 3736.00 3617.50

4-2-2010 3610.00 3680.00 3644.00

7-2-2010 3641.00 3680.00 3651.50

8-2-2010 3645.00 3684.00 3675.75

9-2-2010 3681.00 3754.50 3746.75

10-2-2010 3723.00 3780.00 3729.75

11-2-2010 3693.00 3759.00 3699.25

14-2-2010 3666.50 3727.00 3722.25

15-2-2010 3680.00 3740.00 3687.75

16-2-2010 3670.00 3714.75 3673.00

17-2-2010 3645.00 3692.00 3655.50 18-2-2010 3600.00 3684.75 3651.00

22-2-2010 3599.00 3672.50 3606.25

23-2-2010 3594.00 3644.00 3605.25

24-2-2010 3560.00 3605.00 3570.50

25-2-2010 3544.50 3650.00 3609.75

28-2-2010 3589.00 3649.75 3596.25

1-3-2010 3550.00 3600.00 3554.00

2-3-2010 3514.25 3570.00 3529.50

3-3-2010 3535.00 3599.00 3570.75

4-3-2010 3570.00 3599.00 3576.00

7-3-2010 3561.00 3595.00 3565.25

8-3-2010 3550.25 3569.75 3554.00

9-3-2010 3530.00 3560.00 3535.75 10-3-2010 3521.00 3557.75 3545.75

11-3-2010 3535.00 3560.00 3543.50

14-3-2010 3516.00 3549.00 3517.50

15-3-2010 3455.00 3520.00 3490.75

16-3-2010 3499.00 3560.00 3551.75

18-3-2010 3551.00 3574.00 3560.50

21-3-2010 3553.50 3580.00 3570.25

22-3-2011 3555.00 3595.00 3585.50

23-3-2012 3579.00 3699.00 3593.25

24-3-2013 3636.00 3685.00 3672.00

25-3-2014 3632.00 3689.00 3642.50

28-3-2015 3585.00 3646.50 3592.75

29-3-2016 3570.00 3610.00 3584.00 30-3-2017 3573.00 3634.00 3600.75

31-3-2018 3571.00 3610.00 3600.75



30

W eekly return

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week

31-1-2009 7-2-2010 14-2-2010 22-2-2010 28-2-2010 7-3-2010 14-3-2010 21-3-20

Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Retur

1 ACI Limited -0.18% 0.25% 0.73% -2.14% 1.33% -1.50% 2.08% 0.16%

2 ACI Formulations Limited -4.09% -0.06% -1.32% -1.00% 1.88% -2.39% 1.45% 0.34%

3 Ambee Pharma -2.95% -5.14% 0.59% -1.83% 6.67% -2.65% -0.44% 9.00%

4 Bangla Process 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

5 Beximco Pharma -5.78% 0.94% -0.82% -0.94% 1.62% -1.41% 2.37% 4.51%

6 Beximco Synthetics -5.73% -1.95% -1.21% -1.10% 0.21% -2.42% 2.09% 1.67%

7 Glaxo SmithKline -2.93% -14.23% 4.30% 0.34% -3.25% 1.93% 3.36% -4.03%

8 The Ibn Sina -1.58% -0.42% -1.72% -1.09% 1.29% -0.75% 3.05% -1.52%

9 Imam Button -4.82% -5.44% 0.29% -1.31% 0.10% -2.17% 0.32% 23.05%

10 Keya Cosmetics 0.41% 5.94% 14.37% -3.82% 2.53% -4.65% 6.47% -2.90%

11 Keya Detergent 2.69% 7.56% 9.50% -1.95% 5.03% 4.01% 6.95% -3.97%

12 Kohinoor Chemicals 0.87% -5.17% -4.00% -2.94% -0.98% -6.40% 0.00% 15.79%

13 Libra Inf usions Limited -8.40% -4.66% -3.31% 0.57% -4.26% -5.99% -0.90% 7.96%

14 Marico Bangladesh Limited -2.32% 0.79% -5.20% 6.09% -0.28% -5.38% 0.95% 2.40%15 Orion Inf usion -6.59% -5.48% 0.19% -3.38% -1.30% -3.43% 5.59% 10.22%

16 Pharma Aids -6.58% -2.56% -2.77% -5.91% 1.19% -0.02% 2.58% 1.74%

17 Reckitt Benckiser(Bd.)Ltd. -9.16% -5.32% 4.48% -0.10% -5.62% -6.98% 7.33% 9.27%

18 Renata Ltd. -2.35% -5.44% 0.30% -1.91% -4.61% -1.13% 0.41% 3.56%

19 Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 1.44% 1.31% -1.91% 0.10% -0.56% -0.61% 1.22% 2.02%

20 Therapeutics -9.13% -3.40% -4.98% -0.39% -1.57% -0.15% 0.15% 4.35%

INDUSTRY -3.36% -2.12% 0.38% -1.13% -0.03% -2.11% 2.25% 4.18%

INDUSTRY (GM )

DSE Gen Index 1.25% 2.65% 0.27% 1.08% 1.45% -1.83% 0.62% 1.26%



7. Reference

y Dhaka Stock Exchange, www.dsebd.org

y Bangladesh Bank, www.bangladesh-bank.org

y http://www.investopedia.com

y http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki

y www.tomorrowleaders .com

y http://www.thedailystar.net

y http://bangladesheconomy.wordpress.com

expected return & performance overview of squrpharma

Documents