Scenario planning for success – the art of the long viewJonathon HaggerGareth Houghting

• to discuss the use of scenarios,• to describe three scenario tools,• to apply those tools to a scenario,• to develop an understanding of

scenarios

The purpose of this presentation is -

Meet the minds behind scenariosCurry Hammond Schwartz

Schwartz P., The art of the long viewHammond A., Which world? Scenarios for the 21st centuryCurry A., Acting on the future

“While the future is uncertain and much of it is beyond our control, we can control many aspects of it.

We choose our future: we create it by what we do or fail to do.”

Wendy Schultz, “Defining Futures Fluency”http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/ff/ChFiveView.pdf

Jeremy Bentham on scenario planning for crucial choices in uncertain timeshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=tzlnB_MszyM&NR=1

What are Scenarios ?

“A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out right” (Schwartz, 1991)

Scenarios are about -

Writing a story,

Articulating pathways,

Creating a vision.

What are Scenarios?

“That part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future” (Ringland, 1998)

Scenarios are not about

Predicting the future,

Choosing a preferred or desired future,

Extrapolating the present.

Scenarios ARE about making better decisions with a desired future in mind.

We propose that

“Scenarios allow better preparation for the future, through enabling the effective consideration of uncertainties through challenging individuals’ assumptions, values and beliefs.

As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.”

Hagger & Houghting 2013

Articulate and isolate key decisions

Conduct in-depth research

Look closely at the driving forces

Rehearse the implications

Schwartz’s methodology

Scenarios are used by

Shell Oil http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios.html

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) http://ccs.mit.edu/21c/21CWP001.html#3

AutoNationhttp://www.forbes.com/2009/08/03/scenario-planning-advice-leadership-managing-planning.html

Oraclehttp://docs.oracle.com/cd/E18727_01/doc.121/e12277/T515640T515644.htm

Demystifying Scenario Terminology

Plain English Schwartz Hammond

Status quo Official Future Market World

Change for the worse

Depression Fortress World

Change for the better

Transformative Transformed World

Curry vs Schwartz!

Some similarities with Schwartz but a number of significant differences

Focuses on defining the “system under scrutiny” leading to the eventual decision

Less focus on planning, more consideration on causal or systems approaches

Wide engagement with employees and stakeholders is vital giving greater depth in decision making

Typical scenarios process (Curry)

© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision

Scanning

Understanding landscape

Strategizing

Visioning, priorities

& future

planning

Approx 50

driversident-ified

AxesDevelop-

ment

Draft Scenarios

developed

An iterative process

Scenario testing

20drivers

prioritisedand

tested

© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision

Actions that are needed whatever the scenario

(Imperatives)

Involves assessing actions against capabilities and competencies, identifying

opportunities and reviewing risks

Drivers of change

ScenariosStrategic

implications

Ideas for

futurestrategy & action

Actions needed to reach a preferred future outcome

(Preferences)

From scenarios to strategy

Limitations of scenario planninghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7b0cLn-wHU

Now its your turn

You own a business that manufactures small arms. You will split into three groups, and each compile a future scenario. We will then discuss the long term viability of the company in each possible future world.Report back what you find

“Scenarios allow better preparation for the future, through enabling the effective consideration of uncertainties through challenging individuals’ assumptions, values and beliefs.

As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.”

Hagger & Houghting 2013

So HOW DO we use scenarios?

Create plays,

Recognise the signs,

Plan ahead

In closing

Scenarios are “…tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future” (Ringland, 1998)

The importance of scenario planning to sustained successhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhoXFVQsIxw

More resources

Introduction to Scenario Planning Videohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgxZnRT54E

Scenario Thinkinghttp://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

Andrew Currys bloghttp://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/

Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Currency Doubleday. Pp. xii-xvi & 3-28.

Hammond, A. (1998). Which world? Scenarios for the 21st century: Global destinies, regional choices. Washington, DC: Island Press. (13-25).

Curry, A. (2007). Acting on the future. In B. Sharpe & K, van der Heijden (Eds). Scenarios for success: Turning insight into action. Chichester, England: John Wiley. (pp. 339-371).

References