Examining Recent Migration Patterns using the LFS/APS

Stephen Drinkwater

WISERDSchool of Business and Economics

Swansea University

IZA, Bonn and CReAM, UCL

Objectives

• Major recent changes in UK immigration (since Census) Volume and origin of flows Nature of flows Composition of flows

To examine the impact of these flows on the stock of UK immigrants using the LFS/APS

To use information from surveys to try to better identify migration patterns and processes, especially:

Migration specific questions in the APS Panel element of the LFS

Recent Trends in UK Immigration

• Several sources highlight high level of UK immigration since 2001 e.g. TIM estimates and NINO registrations

• But very different patterns by areas of origin in the data EUA8 migration much lower in TIM data because of high

percentage of short-term migration (>60% of those registering on the WRS say they will stay <3 months)

Although migration from other countries is similar in recent TIM and NINO data (more inclusive definition in TIM seems to cancel out greater coverage in NINO)

• TIM estimates and other studies (e.g. Pollard et al., 2007) also suggest significant return migration to EUA8 but very little quantitative information on the extent and composition of return/circular migration from UK

Long-Term International Migration to the UK

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Est

ima

ted

mig

ran

ts in

th

ou

san

ds

British EUA8 Countries Other Countries

Source: Office for National Statistics

NINO Registrations by Overseas Nationals in the UK

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Re

gis

tra

tion

s in

th

ou

san

ds

EUA8 countries Other countries

Source: Department of Work and Pensions

Long-Term International Migration from the UK

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Est

imat

ed m

igra

nts

in th

ousa

nds

British EUA8 Countries Other Countries

Source: Office for National Statistics

Impact on the Amount and Composition of Migrant Stocks

• Not only have the flows from the EUA8 been very large but the composition and destination of these flows has also been different to other migration waves

Biased towards younger migrants => especially amongst Other EUA8 migrants

Higher percentage of Polish migrants are male

Much more geographically dispersed compared to recent flows from outside the EUA8

LFS/APS data show that this has resulted in a very different population of Polish born people in the UK

Age and Gender Composition of Migration Flows to the UK: 2002-2009

  % aged 16-24 % aged 25-34 % aged 35+ % male

Poles 41.8 39.4 18.8 56.3

Other EUA8 42.5 37.3 20.3 52.2

Other Migrants 37.4 43.8 18.8 52.2

Regional Distribution of Migration Flows to the UK: 2002-2009

  % London % Other Eng. % Scot. % Wales % NI

Poles 23.8 60.4 9.5 2.9 3.4

Other EUA8 26.2 60.0 7.1 2.2 4.6

Other Migrants 45.8 45.7 5.4 2.0 1.2

Source: Department of Work and Pensions

Source: Census of Population

Age and Gender Composition of the UK's Polish Born Population: 2001

Total % Male % Female % M. Aged >64 % F. Aged >59

London 22,224 39.1 60.9 41.1 31.8

Rest of England 34,455 50.5 49.5 80.6 57.7

Scotland 2,505 62.9 37.1 81.7 47.8

Wales 1,427 60.9 39.1 89.1 61.5

Northern Ireland 102 50.0 50.0 31.4 17.6

United Kingdom 60,713 47.0 53.0 68.8 46.5

Age and Gender Composition of the UK's Polish Born Population: 2009 Q2

Source: Annual Population Survey

Note: Estimates use 2009 population weights and numbers have been rounded to nearest thousand.

Total % Male % Female % Aged 20-39 % Aged 55+

London 112,000 47.0 53.0 73.3 6.9

Rest of England 311,000 52.3 47.7 70.4 6.2

Scotland 49,000 47.9 52.1 73.4 3.3

Wales 16,000 54.0 46.0 66.1 6.3

Northern Ireland 15,000 51.9 48.1 72.8 1.6

United Kingdom 503,000 50.8 49.2 71.3 6.0

Time of arrival (in %) and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2002-3

Source: LFS

Male Female AllPre 1946 24.32 1.61 13.971946-9 38.51 26.61 33.091950s 2.70 2.42 2.571960s 3.38 8.06 5.511970s 0.68 7.26 3.681980s 6.08 15.32 10.291990s 9.46 25.00 16.542000-3 14.86 13.71 14.34Mean age 63 51 58Median age 76 48 67

Time of arrival (in %) and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2004-5

Male Female AllPre 1946 6.48 3.64 5.051946-9 12.04 9.09 10.551950s 1.39 2.27 1.831960s 0.93 4.55 2.751970s 2.31 4.55 3.441980s 3.24 6.82 5.051990s 6.48 13.18 9.862000-3 23.69 24.45 24.082004-5 44.44 30.45 37.39Mean age 40 39 39Median age 31 30 30

Source: LFS

Time of arrival (in %) and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2008-9

Source: LFS

  Male Female All

Pre-1950 5.52 2.61 4.06

1950-1989 1.24 4.67 2.96

1990s 2.34 3.98 3.17

2000-3 8.28 8.65 8.47

2004-6 57.24 51.51 54.37

2007-9 25.38 28.57 26.98

Mean Age 30 30 30

Median Age 28 27 28       

Migration questions in the APS (SL)

• The LFS has included questions on year of (first) arrival in the UK, as well as country of birth/nationality, for a long time

• Some new migration questions have been added over the past few years

Whether migrant has lived continuously in the UK If answered no, then migrant is asked the year and

month of most recent arrival in the UK

These questions will now be used in an attempt to establish migration patterns for recent entrants to the UK, especially amongst A8 migrants

Percentage of recent (post-2003) migrants who have lived continuously

in the UK by region of origin: 2009

  % N

EUA8 97.4 2600

EU14 97.7 835

Other Europe 95.5 490

Asia 98.0 2500

Australasia 95.7 231Americas 94.8 615

Africa 98.6 1243

• Only a very low percentage of recent migrants surveyed (incl. from EUA8) said they’d not lived continuously in the UK

Difference between year of first and most recent arrival: 2009

• Although recent EUA8 migrants appear to have shorter stays => these questions seem to be of fairly limited use Questions over the reliability of responses (especially for EUA8?) and (partial) coverage of the sample Not known how many different stays between year of first and most recent arrival => likely to be higher from EUA8

  EUA8 migrants Non-EUA8 migrants0 42.7% 34.5%1 20.6% 19.9%2 22.1% 23.5%3 7.4% 14.2%

4+ 7.4% 7.0%N 68 226

Using the panel element of the LFS

• Given that respondents in the LFS should stay in for five waves, individuals can be tracked over time (for just over a year) using the unique identifiers (system variables)

• The different patterns of response of migrants from particular areas of origin (EUA8) can then be used to provide information on migration patterns

• However non-response will occur for many other reasons including those who choose no longer to participate or move to another part of the UK

• Nevertheless this should give a useful indication of differences in migration patterns between groups

Details of Sample

• Sample consists of 16 quarters of data from 2004Q1 to 2007Q4

• Under 16s and those aged over 50 have been excluded

• Only respondents who are potentially in the survey for all 5 waves have been included

• Patterns of response are identified for four groups of migrants entering the UK from 2003 onwards: those born in Poland, Germany, India and Pakistan

• Also compared with a control group (born in Wales) because of problem of non-response more generally

Pattern of responses (in %) for Recent Migrants by Area of Origin: 2003-7

No. of waves Polish German Indian Pakistani Welsh1 52.6 39.8 36.6 45.6 24.12 26.2 23.1 23.5 33.3 17.23 12.2 19.4 15.8 7.8 13.64 5.4 10.2 13.8 8.3 17.35 3.7 7.4 10.3 4.9 27.9N 930 108 514 204 6377

Implications

• Initial results appear to reveal some interesting patterns despite lots of ‘noise’ in the analysis

Although a very small percentage of the migrant groups remain in all 5 waves, Poles have the highest concentration of non-response => consistent with circular/seasonal migration patterns

• Analysis seems to be complicated by the addition of new household members in different waves

May be better just to restrict analysis to those appearing in wave 1 and to make other adjustments according to the response patterns of ‘control’ groups

• Once refinements have been made then should be possible to examine the socio-economic and job characteristics of frequent movers as little/no UK quantitative information on this

Conclusion

• Massive changes in immigration to the UK since 2001 (especially following the 2004 enlargement)

• Existing quantitative data are patchy so an attempt has been made to use survey data to provide a more complete picture of recent patterns of immigration

• But success appears to be mixed Impact on immigrant stocks seems to accurately reflect

flows recorded by administrative sources Additional migration questions in the APS appear to be of

limited use Panel element of LFS highlights some interesting

patterns but further work needed to enhance precision