Exam 2 Study Guide

• Theories of Deduction (Chapter 5)– Pragmatic reasoning schemas– Social exchange theory– Heuristic/ relevance theory

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• Hypothesis Testing (Chapter 6)– Wason’s 2 4 6 task– Difference between deduction & induction– Def. of hypothesis + def. of exemplar– Positive & negative exemplars– Confirming & disconfirming– Heuristics for hypothesis testing

• General hyp., counterfactual hyp., multiple hyps., extreme exemplars, disconfirm, form categories

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• Induction (Chapter 7)– General and specific induction– Descriptive and explanatory induction– Abduction– Theories of health behavior

• Health belief model, theory of reasoned action, social cognitive theory, transtheoretical model

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• Chapter 8 (Judging probability)– Def. of judgment– Heuristics

• Anchoring and adjustment heuristic

– Overconfidence

Judgment

• Estimating the value of something– Predict your grade on a test– Judge the value of a home to you– How much you are willing to pay for a used

car

Anchoring and Adjustment

• Heuristic that people use to make judgments

• Exposed to an “anchor” = a number or value provided by somebody else sometimes without any justification

• Then, sometimes “adjust” our own estimate based on the anchor

example

• Buying a new car– At dealership the first “estimate” of the value

of the car is the sticker price• Easy for you to see the posted value of the car

– Sticker price becomes an “anchor” which may cause to you to “adjust” your estimate of the value of the car upward

• To avoid, you generate your own “anchor” by researching the value of the car in advance

More

• Lowballing : provide an initial, artificially low, value or estimate of the value

• Highballing: provide an initial, artificially high, value or estimate of the value

overconfidence

• Estimate of a value (prediction)– E.g., predict letter grade on coming exam

• Actual values– E.g., actual letter grades on the exam

• Estimates = actual values (perfectly or well-calibrated)

• Estimates > actual values (overconfident)

• Estimates < actual values (underconfident)

Confidence level

• = either well-calibrated, overconfident, or underconfident

• People are generally NOT well-calibrated

• Most studies find that people are overconfident

• May be some culturally aspect– Studies in Asian countries less likely to find

overconfidence