ex-ante modeling analysis of maize yield responses to nutrient management options in malawi: action...
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Jawoo Koo (IFPRI) at the Africa RISING Monitoring and Evaluation Meeting, Arusha, Tanzania, 13-14 November 2014TRANSCRIPT
Ex-ante modeling analysis of maize yield responses to nutrient management options in
Malawi:
Action Sites – Dedza & Ntcheu
Jawoo Koo (IFPRI)
Africa RISING Monitoring and Evaluation MeetingArusha, Tanzania, 13-14 November 2014
MANAGEMENT
• Planting window
• Planting density
• Irrigation
• Inorganic fertilizer
• Organic manure
• Tillage
• Residue
CULTIVAR
• Phenology
• Max # of kernels
• Kernel filling rate
*DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000 May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
*RUN 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN MODEL : MZCER040 - MAIZE EXPERIMENT : UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I TREATMENT 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN CROP : MAIZE CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 STARTING DATE : FEB 25 1982 PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982 PLANTS/m2 : 7.2 ROW SPACING : 61.cm WEATHER : UFGA 1982 SOIL : IBMZ910014 TEXTURE : - Millhopper Fine Sand SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cm EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S) IRRIGATION : 13 mm IN 1 APPLICATIONS NITROGEN BAL. : SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION N-FERTILIZER : 116 kg/ha IN 3 APPLICATIONS RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : 1000 kg/ha ; 0 kg/ha IN 0 APPLICATIONS ENVIRONM. OPT. : DAYL= 0.00 SRAD= 0.00 TMAX= 0.00 TMIN= 0.00
RAIN= 0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW = 0.00 WIND= 0.00 SIMULATION OPT : WATER :Y NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N
PHOTO :C ET :R INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM :G MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG :R FERT :R RESIDUE:N HARVEST:M WTH:M *SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS
SOIL LOWER UPPER SAT EXTR INIT ROOT BULK pH NO3 NH4 ORG DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT SW SW SW DIST DENS C cm cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 g/cm3 ugN/g ugN/g %
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00
15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24
TOT-180 6.2 22.2 45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm - kg/ha--> 2.5 12.9 87080 SOIL ALBEDO : 0.18 EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.00 MIN. FACTOR : 1.00 RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00 DRAINAGE RATE : 0.65 FERT. FACTOR : 0.80
MAIZE CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 P1 : 265.00 P2 : 0.3000 P5 : 920.00 G2 : 990.00 G3 : 8.500 PHINT : 39.000
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
RUN NO. 1 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
CROP GROWTH BIOMASS CROP N STRESS DATE AGE STAGE kg/ha LAI kg/ha % H2O N
------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ----25 FEB 0 Start Sim 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0026 FEB 0 Sowing 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0027 FEB 1 Germinate 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.009 MAR 11 Emergence 29 0.00 1 4.4 0.00 0.00
27 MAR 29 End Juveni 251 0.43 4 1.6 0.00 0.091 APR 34 Floral Ini 304 0.44 4 1.5 0.00 0.50
*DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000 May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
*RUN 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN MODEL : MZCER040 - MAIZE EXPERIMENT : UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I TREATMENT 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN CROP : MAIZE CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 STARTING DATE : FEB 25 1982 PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982 PLANTS/m2 : 7.2 ROW SPACING : 61.cm WEATHER : UFGA 1982 SOIL : IBMZ910014 TEXTURE : - Millhopper Fine Sand SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cm EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S) IRRIGATION : 13 mm IN 1 APPLICATIONS NITROGEN BAL. : SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION N-FERTILIZER : 116 kg/ha IN 3 APPLICATIONS RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : 1000 kg/ha ; 0 kg/ha IN 0 APPLICATIONS ENVIRONM. OPT. : DAYL= 0.00 SRAD= 0.00 TMAX= 0.00 TMIN= 0.00
RAIN= 0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW = 0.00 WIND= 0.00 SIMULATION OPT : WATER :Y NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N
PHOTO :C ET :R INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM :G MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG :R FERT :R RESIDUE:N HARVEST:M WTH:M *SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS
SOIL LOWER UPPER SAT EXTR INIT ROOT BULK pH NO3 NH4 ORG DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT SW SW SW DIST DENS C cm cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 g/cm3 ugN/g ugN/g %
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00
15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24
TOT-180 6.2 22.2 45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm - kg/ha--> 2.5 12.9 87080 SOIL ALBEDO : 0.18 EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.00 MIN. FACTOR : 1.00 RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00 DRAINAGE RATE : 0.65 FERT. FACTOR : 0.80
MAIZE CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 P1 : 265.00 P2 : 0.3000 P5 : 920.00 G2 : 990.00 G3 : 8.500 PHINT : 39.000
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
RUN NO. 1 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
CROP GROWTH BIOMASS CROP N STRESS DATE AGE STAGE kg/ha LAI kg/ha % H2O N
------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ----25 FEB 0 Start Sim 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0026 FEB 0 Sowing 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0027 FEB 1 Germinate 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.009 MAR 11 Emergence 29 0.00 1 4.4 0.00 0.00
27 MAR 29 End Juveni 251 0.43 4 1.6 0.00 0.091 APR 34 Floral Ini 304 0.44 4 1.5 0.00 0.50
*DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000 May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
*RUN 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN MODEL : MZCER040 - MAIZE EXPERIMENT : UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I TREATMENT 1 : RAINFED LOW NITROGEN CROP : MAIZE CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 STARTING DATE : FEB 25 1982 PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982 PLANTS/m2 : 7.2 ROW SPACING : 61.cm WEATHER : UFGA 1982 SOIL : IBMZ910014 TEXTURE : - Millhopper Fine Sand SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cm EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S) IRRIGATION : 13 mm IN 1 APPLICATIONS NITROGEN BAL. : SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION N-FERTILIZER : 116 kg/ha IN 3 APPLICATIONS RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : 1000 kg/ha ; 0 kg/ha IN 0 APPLICATIONS ENVIRONM. OPT. : DAYL= 0.00 SRAD= 0.00 TMAX= 0.00 TMIN= 0.00
RAIN= 0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW = 0.00 WIND= 0.00 SIMULATION OPT : WATER :Y NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N
PHOTO :C ET :R INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM :G MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG :R FERT :R RESIDUE:N HARVEST:M WTH:M *SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS
SOIL LOWER UPPER SAT EXTR INIT ROOT BULK pH NO3 NH4 ORG DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT SW SW SW DIST DENS C cm cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 cm3/cm3 g/cm3 ugN/g ugN/g %
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 2.00 5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 1.00 1.30 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00
15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.70 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 1.00 30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086 0.30 1.40 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.50 60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.05 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.60 0.10 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 0.03 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.10 120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130 0.00 1.45 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.04 150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258 0.00 1.20 7.00 0.10 0.50 0.24
TOT-180 6.2 22.2 45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm - kg/ha--> 2.5 12.9 87080 SOIL ALBEDO : 0.18 EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.00 MIN. FACTOR : 1.00 RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00 DRAINAGE RATE : 0.65 FERT. FACTOR : 0.80
MAIZE CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa ECOTYPE :IB0002 P1 : 265.00 P2 : 0.3000 P5 : 920.00 G2 : 990.00 G3 : 8.500 PHINT : 39.000
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
RUN NO. 1 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
CROP GROWTH BIOMASS CROP N STRESS DATE AGE STAGE kg/ha LAI kg/ha % H2O N
------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ----25 FEB 0 Start Sim 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0026 FEB 0 Sowing 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.0027 FEB 1 Germinate 0 0.00 0 0.0 0.00 0.009 MAR 11 Emergence 29 0.00 1 4.4 0.00 0.00
27 MAR 29 End Juveni 251 0.43 4 1.6 0.00 0.091 APR 34 Floral Ini 304 0.44 4 1.5 0.00 0.50
OUTPUT
Phenologyflowering, grain/seed/tuber,
maturity
Yield componentgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Growthgrain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Soilnitrogen balance, water balance,
carbon balance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 50 100 150 200
Yield(t/ha)
Fertilizer (kg[N]/ha)
Why (Ex-Ante) Model for AR?
Better understanding of the current crop production system’s sustainability
Assess the potential of sustainable intensification options and their scalability beyond the study area and baseline survey data
Data without models is chaos.
… but models without data is fantasy!
Source Unknown (but probably a crop modeler)
Hey, Jawoo!
We’ve got all these baseline survey done! What data do you need for the modeling stuff?
White et al., 2013. Integrated description of agricultural field experiments and production: The ICASA Version 2.0 data standards. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 96 (2013) 1–12
Come on, Jawoo!
That looks like too much overwhelming! What are the minimum data you need?
What do we have for Dedza&Ntcheu?From AR Baseline Survey + Docs + WUR Survey Site information
Treatments (Innovations)
Soil properties (Dedza: Loamy, Ntcheu: Sandy)
Cropping calendar (Oct – Jan)
From HarvestChoice Soil profiles
30-year daily weather (1980-2010; 0.5-deg grid)
* Simulated using 30-year historical weather data, first 3 years discarded for initialization spin-up, 13 years selected when maize was simulated
* Simulated using 30-year historical weather data, first 3 years discarded for initialization spin-up, 13 years selected when maize was simulated
* Simulated using 30-year historical weather data, first 3 years discarded for initialization spin-up, 13 years selected when maize was simulated
Seasonal Yield & Rainfall
Soil Carbon Sequestration
Soil Nitrogen Leaching
Concluding Remarks
This is just the beginning; many interesting ex-ante modeling opportunities/applications ahead!
Constraints analysis (What if…)
Priority setting across innovation options
Cost-benefit/gross-margin analysis
Climate-smart/proofing
Identifying spaces for scaling-up
Africa Research in Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation
africa-rising.net
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
Thank You