evidence for connsciuousnessrelateda anomalies in random physical syustems

8/3/2019 Evidence for Connsciuousnessrelateda Anomalies in Random Physical Syustems

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Foun dat ions o f Physics , Vol . 19, No. 12 , 1989

Evidence for Consciousness-Related Anomalies inRandom Phys i ca l Sys tem sD e a n I . R a d in 1 a n d R o g e r D . N e l s o n 2Rece ived Ma y 6 , 1988; rev ised Jun e 12 , ]989Spec ula t ions about the ro le o f consciousness in phys ica l sys tem s are f req uen t lyobserved in the l i tera ture concerned wi th the in terpre ta t ion o f quantum mechanics .Wh i l e o n l y t h ree exp er ime n ta l i n ves t ig a t io n s ca n b e f o u n d o n t h i s t o p ic i n p h ys i c s

journals , m ore than 800 re levant expe rim ents have been re ported in the l i tera tureo f p a ra p sych o lo g y . A we l l -d e f in ed b o d y o f emp i r i ca l ev id ence f ro m th i s d o ma inwa s rev i ewed u s in g me ta -a n a ly t i c t ech n iq u es t o a sse ss me th o d o lo g ica l q u a l i t y a n doveral l e f fec t s ize . Res ul t s show ed e f fec ts co nform ing to chance expe cta t ion incontro l condi t ions and unequivocal non-chance e f fec ts in experimenta l condi t ions .This qu ant i ta t ive l i tera ture rev iew agrees wi th the f ind ing s o f two earl ier rev iews,su g g es t i n g t h e ex i s ten ce o f so m e fo rm o f co n sc io u sn ess -re la ted a n o m a ly i n ra n d o mp h ys i ca l sy s t ems .

1. I N T R O D U C T I O NT h e n a t u r e o f th e r e la t io n s h ip b e t w e e n h u m a n c o n s c i o u s n e s s a n d t h ep h y s i c a l w o r l d h a s i n t r i g u e d p h i l o s o p h e r s f o r m i l l e n i a . I n t h i s c e n t u r y ,s p e c u l a t i o n s a b o u t m i n d - b o d y i n t e r a c t i o n s p e r s i s t , o f t e n c o n t r i b u t e d b yp h y s i c is t s in d i s c u s s i o n s o f t h e m e a s u r e m e n t p r o b l e m i n q u a n t u m m e c h a n i c s .V i r t u a ll y all o f t h e f o u n d e r s o f q u a n t u m t h e o r y - - P l a n c k , d e B r o g l ie ,H e i s e n b e r g , S c h r 6 d i n g e r , E i n s t e i n - - c o n s i d e r e d t h i s s u b j e ct in d e p t h , (1) a n dc o n t e m p o r a r y p h y s i c i s t s c o n t i n u e t h i s t r a d i t io n . (2 7)

1 Dep ar tme n t o f Psycho logy , P r ince ton Un ive rs i ty , Pr ince ton , New Je r sey 08544 . Pre sen taddress: Conte l Te chno log y Cen te r , 1 5000 Confe rence Cen te r D r ive , P .O . B ox 10814 ,Chanti l ly , Virg in ia 22021-3808.2 D e p a r t m e n t o f Me c h a n i c a l a n d Aerospace Engineering, Pr ince ton Un ive rs i ty , Pr ince ton ,

New Je r sey 08544.1499

0015-9018/89/1200-1499506.00/0 1989 Plenum Publishing Corporation


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1 5 0 0 R a d i n a n d N e l s o n

T h e f o l l o w i n g e x p r e s s i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m c a n b e f o u n d i n a r e c e n ti n t e r p r e t a ti o n o f q u a n t u m t h e o r y :

If conscious choice can decide what particular observation I measure, and there-fore int o w ha t states my consciousness splits, might no t conscious choice alsobe able to influence he outcome of the m easurement? One possible place wheremind may influence m atter is in qua ntum effects. Exp eriments on w hether it ispossible to affect the decay rates of nuclei by thinking suitable thoughts wouldpresumably be easy to perform, and might be w orth doing. s~G i v e n t h e d i s t i n g u i s h e d h i s t o r y o f s p e c u l a ti o n s a b o u t t h e r o l e o f

c o n s c i o u s n e s s i n q u a n t u m m e c h a n i c s , o n e m i g h t e x p e c t t h a t t h e p h y s i c sl i t e ra t u r e w o u l d c o n t a i n a s i z ab l e b o d y o f e m p i r i c a l d a t a o n t h is t o p i c. As e a r c h , h o w e v e r , r e v e a l s o n l y t h r e e s t u d i e s .

T h e f ir st is i n a n a r ti c le b y H a l l , K i m , M c E l r o y , a n d S h i m o n y , w h or e p o r t e d a n e x p e r i m e n t " b a s e d u p o n t a k in g s e ri o u sl y t h e p r o p o s a l t h a t t h er e d u c t i o n o f t h e w a v e p a c k e t is d u e t o a m i n d - b o d y i n t e r a c t io n , i n w h i c hb o t h o f t h e i n t e r a c t i n g s y s te m s a r e c h a n g e d . '~9 ) T h i s e x p e r i m e n t e x a m i n e dw h e t h e r o n e p e r s o n c o u l d d e t e c t i f a n o t h e r p e r s o n h a d p r e v io u s l y o b s e rv e da q u a n t u m m e c h a n i c a l ev e n t ( g a m m a e m i s s i on fr o m s o d i u m - 2 2 a t o m s ) .T h e i d e a w a s b a s e d o n t h e s u p p o s i t i o n t h a t i f p e r s o n A ' s o b s e r v a t i o na c t u a l l y c h a n g e s t h e p h y s i c a l s ta t e o f a s y s te m , t h e n w h e n p e r s o n B o b s e r -v e s t h e s a m e s y s t e m l a t e r , B ' s e x p e r i e n c e m a y b e d i f f er e n t a c c o r d i n g t ow h e t h e r A h a s o r h a s n o t l o o k e d a t t h e s y s t e m . H a l l e t a l . ' s r e su l t s , ba se do n a t o t a l o f 55 4 tr ia ls , d i d n o t s u p p o r t t h e h y p o t h e s i s ; t h e o b s e r v e dn u m b e r o f " h i t s " o b t a i n e d i n th e i r e x p e r i m e n t w a s p r e c is e l y t h e n u m b e re x p e c t e d b y c h a n c e ( 2 77 ) , w h il e t h e v a r i a n c e o f t h e i r m e a s u r e m e n t s w a ss ign i f i c a n t ly sm a l l e r th a n e x pe c te d ( p < 0 .05) .~ 9)

T h e s e c o n d s t u d y is re f e r re d t o b y H a l l e t a l . , w h o e n d t h e i r a r t i c l e b yp o i n t i n g o u t t h a t a s i m i la r, u n p u b l i s h e d e x p e r i m e n t u s in g c o b a l t -5 7 a s th esou r c e wa s suc c e ss f u l ( 40 h i t s ou t o f 67 tr i a l s ) . (1)T h e t h i r d s t u d y i s a m o r e s y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n r e p o r t e d b yJ a h n a n d D u n n e , (11) w h o s u m m a r i z e r e su l ts o f o v e r 2 5 m i l l io n b i n a r yt ri a ls c o l l e c t e d d u r i n g s e v e n y ea r s o f e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n w i t h r a n d o m - e v e n tg e n e r a t o r s . T h e s e e x p e r i m e n t s , i n v o l v i n g lo n g - t e r m d a t a c o l l e c t io n w i th3 3 u n s e l e c t e d i n d i v i d u a l s , p r o v i d e p e r s u a s i v e , r e p l i c a b l e e v i d e n c e o f a na n o m a l o u s c o r r e l a ti o n b e tw e e n c o n s c i o u s i n t e n t io n a n d t h e o u t p u t o fr a n d o m n u m b e r g e n e r a t o r s .

T h u s , o f t h r e e p e r t i n e n t e x p e r i m e n t s r e f e re n c e d i n m a i n s t r e a m p h y s i c sj o u r n a l s , o n e d e s c r i b e s r e s u l t s s t a t i s t i c a l l y t o o c l o s e t o c h a n c e e x p e c t a t i o na n d t w o d e s c r i b e p o s i t i v e e ff ec ts . ( 9- u) G i v e n t h e t h e o r e t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s o fs u c h a n e ff e ct , i t i s r e m a r k a b l e t h a t n o f u r t h e r e x p e r i m e n t s o f t h i s t y p e c a nb e f o u n d i n t h e p h y s i c s l i t e r a t u r e ; b u t t h i s i s n o t t o s a y t h a t n o s u c he x p e r i m e n t s h a v e b e e n p e r f o r m e d . I n f a c t, d o z e n s o f r e s e a rc h e r s h a v e


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reported conceptually identical experiments in the puzzling and uncertaindomain of parapsychology. Perhaps because of the insular nature ofscientific disciplines, the vast majority of these experiments are unknownto most scientists. A few critics who have considered this literature havedismissed the experiments as being flawed, nonreplicable, or opento fraud, (12-16) but their assertions are countered by at least twodetailed reviews which provide strong statistical support for the existenceof anomalous consciousness-related effects with random numbergenerators. (17'18) In this paper, we describe the results of a comprehensive,quantitative meta-analysis which focused on the questions of methodologi-cal quality and replicability in these experiments.2 . T H E E X P E R I M E N T S

The experiments involved some form of microelectronic randomnumber generator (RNG), a human observer, and a set of instructions forthe observer to attempt to "influence" the RNG to generate particularnumbers, or changes in a distribution, solely by intention. RNGs areusually based upon a source of truly random events such as electronicnoise, radioactive decay, or randomly seeded pseudorandom sequences/19)Feedback about the distribution of random events is often provided in theform of a digital display, but audio feedback, computer graphics, and avariety of other mechanisms have also been used. Some of the RNGsdescribed in the literature are technically sophisticated, the best devicesemploying electromagnetic shielding, environmental failsafe mechanismstriggered by deviant voltages, currents, or temperature, automaticcomputer-based data recording on magnetic media, redundant hard copyoutput, periodic randomness calibrations, and so on. (18'2)RNGs are typically designed to produce a sequence of random bits atthe press of a button. After generating a sequence of say, 100 random bits(0's or l's), the number of l's in the sequence may be provided as feedback.In an experimental protocol using a binary RNG, a run might consist ofan observer being asked to cause the RNG to produce, in three successivebutton presses, a high number (sum of l's greater than chance expectation0f50), a low number (less than 50), and a control condition with no direc-tional intention. An experiment might consist of a group of individualseach contributing a hundred such runs, or one individual contributingseveral thousand runs. Results are usually analyzed by comparing highaim and low aim means against a control mean or theoretical chanceexpectation.


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1502 Radin and Nelson

3. M E T A - A N A L Y T I C P R O C E D U R E ST h e q u a n t i t a t i v e l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w , a l s o c a l l e d m e t a - a n a l y s i s , h a s

b e c o m e a v a l u a b l e t o o l i n t h e b e h a v i o r a l a n d s o c i a l s c i en c e s. (21)M e t a - a n a l y s i s i s a n a l o g o u s t o w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d p r o c e d u r e s u s e d i n t h ep h y s i c a l s c i e n c e s t o d e t e r m i n e p a r a m e t e r s a n d c o n s t a n t s . T h e t e c h n i q u ea s se s se s r e p l i c a t i o n o f a n e f f e c t w i t h i n a b o d y o f s t u d i e s b y e x a m i n i n g t h edi s t r ib ut io n of e f fec t s izes . (22 24) I n t h e p r e s e n t c o n t e x t , t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s( n o m e n t a l i n f lu e n c e o n t h e R N G o u t p u t ) s p ec if ie s a n e x p e c t e d m e a n e ff ec ts iz e o f z e r o . A h o m o g e n e o u s d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e ff ec t s iz es w i t h n o n z e r o m e a ni n d i c a t e s r e p l i c a t i o n o f a n e ff ec t, a n d t h e s i ze o f t h e d e v i a t i o n o f t h e m e a nf r o m i t s e x p e c t e d v a l u e e s t i m a t e s t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e e ff ec t.

M e t a - a n a l y s e s a s s u m e t h a t e ff ec ts b e i n g c o m p a r e d a r e s i m i l ar a c r o s sd i f f er e n t e x p e r i m e n t s , t h a t is , t h a t a l l s t u d i e s s e ek t o e s t i m a t e t h e s a m e p o p -u l a t i o n p a r a m e t e r s . T h u s t h e s c o p e o f a q u a n t i t a t i v e r e v ie w m u s t b e s tr i ct l yd e l i m i t e d to e n s u r e a p p r o p r i a t e c o m m o n a l i t y a c r o s s t h e d i f fe r e n t s t u d ie st h a t a r e c o m b i n e d . (2 m5 ) T h i s c a n p r e s e n t a n o n t r i v i a l p r o b l e m i n m e t a -a n a l y t i c r e v ie w s b e c a u s e r e p l i c a t io n s t u di e s t y p i c a l l y i n v e s t ig a t e a n u m b e ro f v a r i a b l es i n a d d i t i o n t o t h o s e s t u d i e d i n t h e o r i g i n a l e x p e r im e n t s . I n t h ep r e s e n t c a se , b e c a u s e d i ff e r en t s u b j ec t s, e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o t o c o l s , a n d R N G sw e r e e m p l o y e d w i t h i n t h e re v i e w e d li t e ra t u r e , s o m e h e t e r o g e n e i t ya t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e s e f a c t o r s w a s e x p e c t e d i n th e o b t a i n e d d i s t r i b u t i o n o fe f fe c t s iz es . H o w e v e r , t h e c i r c u m s c r i p t i o n f o r t h e r e v i e w r e q u i r e d t h a t e v e r ys t u d y i n t h e d a t a b a s e h a v e t h e s a m e p r i m a r y g o a l o r h y p o t h e s i s , a n d h e n c ee s t i m a t e t h e s a m e u n d e r l y i n g ef fe c t.

E x p e r i m e n t s s e l e c t e d f o r r e v i e w e x a m i n e d t h e f o l l o w i n g h y p o t h e s i s :T h e s t a ti s ti c a l o u t p u t o f a n e l e c t r o n i c R N G is c o r r e l a t e d w i t h o b s e r v e ri n t e n t i o n i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h p r e s p e c if i e d i n s t r u c ti o n s , a s in d i c a t e d b yt h e d i r e c t i o n a l s h if t o f d i s t r i b u t i o n p a r a m e t e r s ( u s u a ll y t h e m e a n ) f r o me x p e c t e d v a l u e s .

B e c a u s e t h i s " d i r e c t i o n a l s h i f t " i s m o s t o f t e n r e p o r t e d a s a s t a n d a r dn o r m a l d e v i a t e ( i.e., Z s c o r e ) in t h e r e v i e w e d e x p e r i m e n t s , w e d e t e r m i n e de f fe c t s iz e a s a Z s c o r e n o r m a l i z e d b y t h e s q u a r e r o o t o f t h e s a m p l e s i ze( N ) , e = Z / x / N , w h e r e N w a s t h e t o t a l n u m b e r o f i n d iv i d u a l r a n d o m e v e nt s( wi th p r ob a b i l i t y o f a h i t a t p = 0 .5 , p = 0 .25 , e t c .) . Th i s e f f e c t s i ze m e a su r eis e q u i v a l e n t t o a P e a r s o n p r o d u c t m o m e n t c o r r e l a t io n . (21)

3 .1 . U n i t o f A n a l y s i sT o a v o i d r e d u n d a n t i n c l u s i o n o f d a t a i n a m e t a - a n a ly s i s , " u n i t s o f

a n a l y s is " a r e o f t e n s p e c i f ie d W e e m p l o y e d t h e f o ll o w i n g m e t h o d : I fa n a u t h o r d i s t i n g u i s h e d a m o n g s e v e r a l e x p e r i m e n t s r e p o r t e d i n a s i n g l e


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s ta ti st ic s , th e d a t a , a n d t h e R N G d e v i c e - - a n d t h e y c o v e r v i r tu a l ly al lm e t h o d o l o g i c a l c r i t i c i s m s r a i s e d t o d a t e . T h e y a r e ( 1 ) c o n t r o l t e s t s n o t e d ,( 2 ) l o c a l c o n t r o l s c o n d u c t e d , ( 3 ) g l o b a l c o n t r o l s c o n d u c t e d , ( 4 ) c o n t r o l se s ta b l is h e d t h r o u g h t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o t o c o l, ( 5) r a n d o m n e s s c a l ib r a t io n sc o n d u c t e d , ( 6 )'f a il sa fe e q u i p m e n t e m p l o y e d , ( 7 ) d a t a a u t o m a t i c a l ly r ec o r-d e d , ( 8 ) r e d u n d a n t d a t a r e c o r d i n g e m p l o y e d , ( 9 ) d a t a d o u b l e c h e c k e d ,( 1 0) d a t a p e r m a n e n t l y a r c h i v e d , ( 1 1) t a r g e t s a l t e r n a t e d o n s u c ce s si v e t ri a ls ,( 1 2 ) d a t a s e l e c t i o n p r e v e n t e d b y p r o t o c o l o r e q u i p m e n t , ( 1 3 ) f i x e d r u nl e n g t h s s p ec if ie d , ( 1 4) f o r m a l e x p e r i m e n t d e c l a r e d , ( 1 5 ) t a m p e r - r e s i s t a n tR N G e m p l o y e d , a n d ( 1 6 ) u s e o f u n s e l ec t e d s u bj ec ts .

E a c h c r i t e r i o n w a s c o d e d a s b e i n g p r e s e n t o r a b s e n t i n t h e r e p o r t o fa n e x p e r i m e n t , s p e c if ic a ll y e x c l u d i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f p r e v i o u s l y p u b l i s h e dd e s c r i p t io n s o f R N G d e v ic e s o r c o n t r o l t e st s. T h i s s tr a t e g y w a s e m p l o y e dt o r e fl ec t l o w e r c o n f i d e n c e in s u c h e x p e r i m e n t s s i n ce , f o r e x a m p l e , r a n d o m -n e s s t e s t s c o n d u c t e d o n c e o n a n R N G d o n o t g u a r a n t e e a c c e p t a b l e p e r f o r -m a n c e i n t h e s a m e R N G i n a l l f u t u r e e x p e r i m e n t s . A s a r e s u l t , a s s e s s e dq u a l i t y w a s c o n s e r v a t i v e , t h a t i s , l o w e r t h a n t h e " t r u e " q u a l i t y f o r s o m ee x p e r i m e n t s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e r e p o r t e d o n l y a s a b s t r a c t s o r c o n f e r e n c ep r o c e e d i n g s . U s i n g u n i t w e i g h t s ( w h i c h h a v e b e e n s h o w n t o b e r o b u s t i nsuch app l i c a t i ons (36)) on each o f the s ix t een de sc r ip to r s , t he q ua l i t y ra t i ngf o r a n i n d i v i d u a l e x p e r i m e n t w a s s i m p l y th e s u m o f t h e d e s c ri p t o rs . T h u s ,w h i l e a q u a l i t y s c o r e n e a r z e r o i n d i c a t e d a l o w q u a l i t y o r p o o r l y r e p o r t e dexp e r im en t , a s co re nea r s ix t een re f l ec t ed a h igh ly c red ib l e expe r imen t .

3 .3 . A s s e s s i n g E f f e c t S i z eA s s u m e t h a t e a c h o f K e x p e r i m e n t s p r o d u c e s e f fe c t s iz e e s t im a t e s e o f

a p a r a m e t e r E , b a s e d o n N s a m p l e s , a n d t h a t e a c h e h a s a k n o w n s t a n d a r de r r o r s . T h e w e i g h t e d m e a n e f fe c t s iz e is c a l c u l a t e d a s e . = ~ ~ o i e i/ ~ ~ i ,w h er e ~o~ = 1/s~ = N i , a n d i r a n g e s f r o m 1 t o K . T h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f e . isSe = ( Z CO ;) 1 /2 . A t e s t fo r h om og en e i ty fo r t he K e s t ima te s o f e~ i s g iven b yH K = ~ ~ oi(e ~-- e.)2 , w h e r e H x h a s a c h i - s q u ar e d i s t r ib u t i o n w i t h K - 1d e g r e e s o f f r e e d o m . (37) T h e s a m e p r o c e d u r e c a n b e f o l l o w e d t o t e s t f o rh o m o g e n e i t y o f ef fe c t s iz e a c r o s s M i n d e p e n d e n t i n v e s t ig a t o r s . I n t h i s e a se ,e . j a n d Sej a r e c a l c u l a t e d p e r i n v e s t i g a to r , a n d t h e t e s t f o r h o m o g e n e i t y isp e r f o r m e d a s H M = - Z ~ o j ( e . j - - e . ~ ) 2, w h e r e e . s a n d ~o a r e m e a n w e i g h t e deffect s ize and 1/s~ pe r i nves t i ga to r , r e spec t ive ly , e . ~ = ~ w j e . j ~ o~ , a n dj r a n g e s f r o m 1 t o M . H ~ h a s M - 1 d e g re e s o f f r e ed o m .F o r a q u a l i t y - w e i g h t e d a n a ly s is , w e m a y d e t e r m i n e e . o =Z (Q~o~e~)/Z ( Q i ~ i ) , w h e r e Q i is t h e q u a l i t y a s s es s e d f o r e x p e r i m e n t i. T h es t a n d a r d e r r o r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h eo is seQ = (Z (Q2imi)/(~ Q~eoi)2) 1/2; th et e s t f o r h o m o g e n e i t y is s i m i l ar t o t h a t d e s c r i b e d a b o v e . F i n a l l y , f o ll o w i n g


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Co n s c i o u s n es s i n P h y s i ca l S y s tem s 1 5 0 5

t he p r a c t i c e o f r e v ie w e r s in the phy s ic a l s c i e nc e s, (23'24) we de le t e d po te n t i a l" o u t l i e r " s tu d i e s t o o b t a i n a h o m o g e n e o u s d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e ff ec t s iz es a n d t or e d u c e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e c a l c u l a t e d m e a n e f fe c t s iz e m a y h a v e b e e ns p u r i o u s l y e n l a r g e d b y e x t r e m e v a l u e s . T h e p r o c e d u r e u s e d w a s a s f o l l o w s :I f t h e h o m o g e n e i t y s t a t is t i c f o r a ll s t u d i e s w a s s i g n i fi c a n t ( a t t h e p < 0 . 05l e v e l ) , t h e s t u d y t h a t w o u l d p r o d u c e t h e l a r g e s t r e d u c t i o n i n t h i s s t a t i s t i cw a s d e l e te d ; th i s w a s r e p e a t e d u n t i l t h e h o m o g e n e i t y s t a ti s ti c h a d b e c o m en o n s i g n i f i c a n t .4 . R E S U L T S

O n - l i n e b i b l i o g r a p h i c d a t a b a s e s f o r p s y c h o l o g y a n d p h y s i c s j o u r n a l sw e r e s e a rc h e d , a s w a s a s p e c i a li z e d d a t a b a s e c o v e r i n g p a r a p s y c h o l o g i c a la r ti c le s , t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t s , c o n f e r e n c e p r o c e e d i n g s a n d m a n u s c r i p t s .A l t o g e t h e r 1 5 2 r e f e re n c e s w e r e f o u n d f r o m 1 9 59 t o 1 98 7. T h e s e r e p o r t sd e s c r i b e d 8 3 2 s t u d i e s c o n d u c t e d b y 6 8 d i f f er e n t i n v e s t i g a t o r s ( 5 9 7e x p e r i m e n t a l s t u d ie s a n d 2 3 5 c o n t r o l s t u d i e s) . F i f t y - f o u r e x p e r i m e n t a l a n d3 3 c o n t r o l s t u d ie s r e p o r t e d o n l y a s n o n s i g n i fi c a n t w e r e a s s ig n e d Z = 0 . S ixe x p e ri m e n ts a n d t w o c o n t r o l s tu d ie s c o d e d a s ( N = I , Z > 0 ) w e ree l i m i n a t e d f r o m f u r t h e r m e t a - a n a l y s i s b e c a u s e e ff ec t s iz e c o u l d n o t b ea c c u r a t e l y e s t i m a t e d ( th i s re q u i r e d t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f o n e i n v e s t i g a t o r w h or e p o r t e d a s i ng l e s t u d y ) . F i g u r e s 1 a n d 2 s h o w t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f Z s c o r e sr e p o r t e d f o r c o n t r o l a n d e x p e r i m e n t a l s t u d ie s , r e s pe c ti v el y .

1 2

6

g~ 3

0

C O N T R O L . N = 2 3 5T H E O R Y

I F I T o o o o oS H I F T . . . . .

ii

' - . _ . . . . . . . . - . . . . . - . . . . . . . . . . . .

r- 3 - J 4 2 3 2 2 2 1 I ~ I- 5 0 I 2 3 4 5Z - S C O R E S

Fig. 1. Distribu tion of Z scores reported in 235 control studies. Th irty-three of these studieswere reported on ly as "nonsignificant" and were assigned Z scores of zero. To replace thespurious spik e at Z = 0 , tho se 33 studies w ere recast as no rmally distributed Z scores,bounded by ___1.64, averaging Z = 0.

8 2 5 / I 9 / I 2 - 5


8/16


12REG META-ANALYSIS: FREQUENCY OF Z-S COR ES

EXPERIMENTAL., N = 597

9

6

~ 3~

- 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 . . . . 6Z-SCORES

THEORY

FI T o o o o o

SHIFT . . . . .

i i i2 3 4 5

F i g . 2 . D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Z s c o r e s r e p o r t e d i n 5 97 e x p e r i m e n t a l s tu d i e s . F i f t y - f o u r o f t h e s es t u d i e s w e r e r e p o r t e d a s " n o n s i g n i f i c a n t " a n d w e r e a s s i g n e d Z s c o r e s o f z e r o . A s in F i g . 1 ,t h o s e 5 4 s t u d i e s w e r e r e c a s t a s n o r m a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d Z s c o r e s, b o u n d e d b y _+_1 . 6 4 , av e rag i n gZ = 0 .

2=.

N = 591 N = 67 N = 4 9 0N = 5 8

N = $91 N 490

N = 233, , , , , , ,(a )CNTL (b )EXPT (c) EXP/ I (d )EXPH (e )EXP/ I H ( f)QUAL (g )QUA LH

F i g . 3 . M e a n e f f e ct s i z e p o i n t e s t i m a t e s _+ 1 s t a n d a r d e r r o rf o r ( a ) c o n t r o l s t u d i e s a n d ( b ) i n d i v i d u a l e x p e r i m e n t s ;( c ) m e a n e f fe c t s iz e p e r i n v e s t ig a t o r , ( d ) h o m o g e n e o u s m e a ne ff e ct s iz e f o r e x p e r i m e n t s , ( e ) h o m o g e n e o u s m e a n e f fe c t s iz ep e r i n v e s t ig a t o r , ( f ) m e a n e f fe c t s iz e f o r q u a l i ty - w e i g h t e de x p e r i m e n t s, a n d ( g ) m e a n e ff ec t s iz e f o r h o m o g e n e o u sq u a l i t y - w e i g h t e d e x p e r i m e n t s .


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Con s c i o u s n e s s in Phy sical System s 1507T h e s e r e s u lt s , e x p r e s s e d a s o v e r a ll m e a n e f fe c t s iz e s, s h o w t h a t c o n t r o l

s t u d ie s c o n f o r m w e ll t o c h a n c e e x p e c t a t i o n ( F ig . 3 a ), a n d t h a t e x p e r i m e n t a le ff e ct s, w h e t h e r c a l c u l a t e d f o r s t u d i e s o r i n v e s t i g a t o r s , d e v i a t e s i g n if i c a n tl yf r o m c h a n c e e x p e c t a t i o n ( F ig . 3 b , 3 c) . T o o b t a i n a h o m o g e n e o u s d i s tr i b u -t i o n o f e f fe c t s iz e s, it w a s n e c e s s a r y t o d e l e t e 1 7 % o f i n d i v i d u a l o u t l i e rs t u d i e s ( F i g . 3 d ) a n d 1 3 % o f m e a n e f fe c t s iz e s a c r o s s i n v e s t i g a t o r s ( F i g . 3 e) .T h i s m a y b e c o m p a r e d w i t h e x e m p l a r y p h y s i c a l a n d s o c ia l sc ie n c e r e vi ew s ,w h e r e i t is s o m e t i m e s n e c e s s a r y t o d i s c a r d a s m a n y a s 4 5 % o f t h e s t u d i e st o a c h i e v e a h o m o g e n e o u s e f fe c t s iz e d i s t ri b u t i o n . (~9) O f i n d i v i d u a l s t u d i e sd e l e t e d , 7 7 % d e v i a t e d f r o m t h e o v e r a l l m e a n i n t h e p o s i t i v e d i r e c t i o n , a n do f i n v e s t i g a t o r m e a n s d e l e t e d , a l l w e r e p o s i t i v e ( i.e ., s u p p o r t i v e o f t h ee x p e r i m e n t a l h y p o t h e s i s ) .

4 .1 . Ef fec t o f Qual i tyS o m e c r it ic s h a v e p o s t u l a t e d t h a t a s e x p e r i m e n t a l q u a l i t y i n c re a s e s i n

t h e s e s t u d ie s , e f fe c t s iz e w o u l d d e c r e a s e , u l t i m a t e l y r e g r e s si n g t o t h e " t r u e "va lu e o f ze ro , i .e ., ch an ce re su l t s . (~2'13'~s'32'33 '38) W e te s ted th i s co n j ec tu rew i t h t w o l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n s o f m e a n e f fe c t s iz e v s. m e a n q u a l i t y a s s e s s e d p e ri n v e s t i g a t o r , o n e w e i g h t e d w i t h co j a s d e f i n e d a b o v e a n d t h e o t h e r w e i g h t e dw i t h t h e n u m b e r o f s t u d i e s p e r i n v e s t i g a t o r . T h e c a l c u l a t e d s l o p e f o r t h ef o rm e r i s - 2 . 5 x 1 0 - 5 + 3 . 2 x 10 - 5 , a n d f o r t he l at t e r, - 7 . 6 x 1 0 - 4 ~3.9 x 10 -4 . T h e s e n o n s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n q u a l i t y a n d e f fe c ts iz e i s t y p i c a l o f r e c t a - a n a l y t i c f i n d i n g s i n o t h e r f i el d s , (3 9'4 ) s u g g e s t i n gt h a t t h e p re s e n t d a t a b a s e is n o t c o m p r o m i s e d b y p o o r e x p e r i m e n t a lm e t h o d o l o g y . A n o t h e r a s s e s sm e n t o f t h e ef fe c t o f q u a l i t y w a s o b t a i n e d b yc o m p a r i n g u n w e i g h t e d a n d q u a l i t y - w e i g h t e d e f fe c t s iz es p e r e x p e r im e n t( F i g . 3 b v s . 3 f ). T h e s e a r e n e a r l y i d e n t i c a l , a n d t h e s a m e i s t r u e a f t e rd e l e ti n g o u t li e rs t o o b t a i n a h o m o g e n e o u s q u a l i t y - w e i g h t e d d i s t r ib u t i o n( F ig . 3 d v s. 3 g ) , c o n f i r m i n g t h a t d i f fe r e n c e s in m e t h o d o l o g i c a l q u a l i t y a r en o t s i g n i f i c a n t p r e d i c t o r s o f e f f e c t s iz e.

I t m i g h t b e a r g u e d t h a t th e q u a l i ty a s s e s s m e n t p r o c e d u r e e m p l o y e dh e r e w a s n o n o p t i m a l b e c a u s e s o m e q u a l i t y c r it e ri a a re m o r e i m p o r t a n tt h a n o t h e r s , s o t h a t i f a p p r o p r i a t e w e i g h t s w e r e a s s ig n e d , t h eq u a l i t y - w e i g h t e d e f fe c t s iz e m i g h t t u r n o u t t o b e q u i t e d i ff e re n t. T h i s w a st e s te d b y M o n t e C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n , u s i n g s e ts o f 1 6 w e i g h t s , o n e p e rc r i t e r i o n , r a n d o m l y s e l e c t e d o v e r t h e r a n g e 0 t o 6 . A q u a l i t y - w e i g h t e d e f f e c ts i z e w a s c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e 5 9 7 e x p e r i m e n t s a s b e f o r e , n o w u s i n g t h er a n d o m w e i g h t s i n s te a d o f u n i t w e ig h t s, a n d t h is p r o c e s s w a s r e p e a t e d o n et h o u s a n d t im e s , y i e l d in g a d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p o s s i b l e q u a l i t y r a ti n g s . T h ea v e ra g e e ffe ct s iz e f ro m t he s i m u la t i o n w a s 3 . 1 8 x 1 0 - 4 + 0 . 1 5 x 1 0 -4 ,i n d i c a t i n g t h a t i n t h is p a r t i c u l a r d a t a b a s e c o d e d b y t h e s e si x t e en c ri te r ia ,


10/16

1508 Radin and Ne lson

t h e p r o b a b l e r a n g e o f t h e q u a l i t y - w e i g h t e d m e a n e ff ec t s iz e c l e ar l y e x c lu d e sc h a n c e e x p e c t a t i o n o f z e ro .

4 .2 . T h e " F i le d r a w e r " P r o b l e mA l t h o u g h a c c o u n t i n g f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n a s s e s s e d q u a l i t y d o e s n o t n u l l i f y

t h e e f fe c t, i t i s w e l l k n o w n i n th e b e h a v i o r a l a n d s o c i a l s c ie n c e s t h a t n o n -s i g n i f i c a n t s t u d i e s a r e p u b l i s h e d l e s s o f t e n t h a n s i g n i f i c a n t s t u d i e s ( t h i s i sc a l l e d t h e " f i l e d r a w e r " p ro ble m (2 ~ '4 1 4 3 )) . I f t h e n u m b e r o f n o n s i g n i f i c a n ts t u d i e s in t h e f i l e d r a w e r i s l a r g e , t h i s r e p o r t i n g b i a s m a y s e r i o u s l y in f l at et h e e f fe c t s iz e e s t i m a t e d i n a r e c ta - a n a l y s i s . W e e x p l o r e d s e v e r a l p r o c e d u r e sf o r e s t im a t i n g t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h is p r o b l e m a n d t o a s se s s t h e p o s si b i li tyt h a t t h e f il e d r a w e r p r o b l e m c a n s u f f i c ie n t ly e x p l a i n t h e o b s e r v e d r e su l ts .

T h e f i l e d r a w e r h y p o t h e s i s i m p l i c i tl y m a i n t a i n s t h a t a l l o r n e a r l y a lls i g n if ic a n t p o s i t i v e r e s u l t s a r e r e p o r t e d . I f p o s i t i v e s t u d i e s a r e n o t b a l a n c e db y r e p o r t s o f s t u d ie s h a v i n g c h a n c e a n d n e g a t iv e o u t c o m e s , t h e e m p i r ic a lZ s c or e d i s tr i b u ti o n s h o u l d s h o w m o r e t h a n t h e e x p e c te d p r o p o r t i o n o fs c o r e s in t h e p o s i t i v e ta i l b e y o n d Z = 1 .6 45 . W h i l e n o a r g u m e n t c a n b em a d e t h a t a ll n e g a t i v e e f fe c ts a r e r e p o r t e d , i t i s i n t e r e s t in g t o n o t e t h a t t h ed a t a b a s e c o n t a i n s 3 7 Z s c o r e s i n th e n e g a t iv e t a il , w h e r e o n l y 3 0 w o u l d b ee x p e c t e d b y c h a n c e . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e a r e 1 52 s c o r e s i n th e p o s i ti v et ai l, a b o u t f iv e t i m e s a s m a n y a s e x p e c t e d . T h e q u e s t i o n i s w h e t h e r t h i se x c e s s r e p r e s e n t s a g e n u i n e d e v i a t i o n f r o m t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s o r a d e f e c ti n r e p o r t i n g o r e d i t o r i a l p r a c t i c e s .

T h i s q u e s t i o n m a y b e a d d r e s se d b y m o d e l i n g b a s e d o n t h e a s s u m p t i o nt h a t a l l s i g n if i c an t p o s i t iv e r e s u l t s a r e r e p o r t e d . A f o u r - p a r a m e t e r f it m i n i -m i z i n g t h e c h i - s q u a r e g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t s t a t i s t i c w a s a p p l i e d t o a l l o b s e r v e dd a t a w i t h Z >~ 1 .6 4 5, u s i n g t h e e x p o n e n t i a l

Y - 1 e _ / ~ ( ix _ , t /~ )- - ~ (1 )t o s i m u l a t e t h e e ff ec t o f s k e w o r k u r t o s i s i n p r o d u c i n g t h e d i s p r o p o r -t i o n a t e l y l o n g p o s i t iv e ta il . T h i s e x p o n e n t i a l is a p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o nw i t h th e s a m e m e a n a n d v a r i a n c e a s t h e n o r m a l d i s tr i b u t io n , b u t w i thk u r t o s i s = 3 . 0 .

T o b e g i n , th e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s o f a ( 0 , 1 ) n o r m a l d i s t r ib u t i o n w i t h n ok u r t o s i s w a s c o n s i d e r e d . T o a c c o u n t f o r t h e e x c e s s i n t h e p o s i t i v e t a i l ,N = 5 8 5 , 0 0 0 f i le d r a w e r st u d i e s w e r e r e q u i r e d , a n d t h e c h i - s q u a r e d s t a ti s ti cr e m a i n e d f a r t o o l a r g e t o i n d i c a t e a r e a s o n a b l e f it ( s ee T a b l e I ) . T h i s l a r g eN , i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h t h e 5 9 7 s t u d ie s a c t u a ll y r e p o r t e d t o g e t h e r w i th t h ep o o r g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t s ta t is ti c , s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f a ( 0 , 1 )n o r m a l d i s t ri b u t i o n is i n a p p r o p r i a t e .


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C o n s c i o u s n e s s i n Physical Systems 1 5 0 9

Table L Four-Parameter Fit (E:N, N, M ean, sd) Minimizing Chi-Square (10 df)Goodness-of-Fit Statistic to the Positive Ta il of the Observed Z Score Distribution,for S everal Expo nential:Norm al Ratios~

, J , m i i l l , , , i ,

Assumption E: N ratio N Mean sd Chi-square pNormal distribution

(null hypothesis )

Empirical distribution

0 585,000 0 1 57,86%84 0t 5,300 0 1 220.97 02 4,800 0 1 I67.84 03 4,600 0 1 148.45 0

10 4,400 0 1 119.69 00 700 0.145 2.10 23.94 0.0081 747 0.345 1.90 16.32 0.0912 757 0.445 1.80 14.21 0.1643 777 0.445 t.80 t 1.08 0.226

10 807 0.445 1.80 11.08 0.351

a The null hypothesis is tested by clamping theallowing N and E:N to vary. The empiricalparameters to vary.

mean at 0 and the standard deviation at l,database is a ddress ed by allow ing all four

A d d i n g s i m u l a t e d k u r t o s i s t o a ( 0, 1 ) n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n b y m i x i n ge x p o n e n t i a l [ E q . ( 1 ) ] a n d n o r m a l d i s t ri b u t i o n s i n a 1 : 1 ra t i o re d u c e d N b yt w o o r d e r s o f m a g n i t u d e , a n d r a t i o s o f 2 : 1, 3 : 1, a n d 1 0 : 1 e x p o n e n t i a l t on o r m a l ( E : N ) y i el d ed fu r t h e r sm a l l im p r o v e m e n t s . H o w e v e r , th e c hi -s q u a r e d s t a t is t i c s ti ll i n d i c a t e d a p o o r f it t o t h e e m p i r i c a l d a t a . A p p l y i n gt h e s a m e m i x t u r e o f e x p o n e n t i a l a n d n o r m a l d i s t ri b u t i o n s , b u t s t a r t i n gf r o m t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e s o f N = 5 97 , m e a n Z s c o r e = 0.6 4 5, a n d s t a n d a r dd e v i a t i o n = 1. 6 0t , w i t h t h e c o n s t r a i n t t h a t t h e m e a n c o u l d o n l y d e c r e a s ef r o m 0 . 6 4 5 , r e s u l te d i n m u c h b e t t e r f it s t o t h e d a t a . T a b l e I s h o w s t h eresul ts .T h i s p r o c e d u r e s h o w s t h a t t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s is u n v ia b l e , e v e n a f t e ra l l o w i n g a h u g e f i l e d r a w e r . T h e c h i - s q u a r e f i t v a s t l y i m p r o v e s w i t h t h ea d d i t i o n o f k u r to s i s, b u t o n l y b e c o m e s a r e a s o n a b l y g o o d fit w h e n m e a na n d s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n a r e a l l o w e d t o a p p r o x i m a t e t h e e m p i r i c a l v a l u e s .T h e f il e d ra w e r e s ti m a t e f r o m t h is m o d e l d e p e n d s o n a n u m b e r o f a s s u m p -t i o n s ( e.g ., t h e t r u e d i s t r i b u t i o n i s g e n e r a l l y n o r m a l , b u t h a s a d i s p r o p o r -t i o n a t e l y l a r g e p o s i t i v e t a il ). I t su g g e s t s a t o t a l n u m b e r o f e x p e r i m e n t a ls t ud i e s o n t h e o r d e r o f 8 0 0, o f w h i c h t h r e e - f o u r t h s h a v e b e e n f o r m a l l yr e p o r t e d .A s o m e w h a t s i m p l e r m o d e l i n g p r o c e d u r e w a s a p p l i e d t o t h e d a t aa s s u m i n g t h a t a l l s t u d i e s w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t Z s c o r e s i n e i t h e r t h e p o s i t i v e o rn e g a t i v e t a i l a r e r e p o r t e d . T h e m o d e l i s b a s e d o n t h e n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o nw i t h a s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n = 1, a n d e s t im a t e s t h e m e a n a n d N r e q u i r e d t o


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account for the 152 Z scores in the positive tail and 37 Z scores in thenegative tail. This mean-shift model, which ignores the shape of theobserved distribution, results in an N = 1,580 and a mean Z score = 0.34.

These modeling efforts suggest that the number of unreported orunretrieved RNG studies falls in the range of 200 to 1,000. A remainingquestion is, how many filedrawer studies with an average null result wouldbe required to reduce the effect to nonsignificance (i.e., p


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Consciousness in Physical Systems 1511

Indeed , i f the " incons i s tency" a rgum ent we re su ff ic ien t to d i scoun ta n o m a l o u s fin din gs , w e w o u l d h a v e i g n o r e d m u c h o f t h e m o t i v a t i o nl e ad i n g t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f q u a n t u m m e c h a n ic s . ( b ) T h e " na 'fv e m e t h o d -o l o g y " a r g u m e n t w a s e m p i r i c a l l y a d d r e s s e d b y t h e a s s e s s m e n t o fme thodo log ica l qua l i ty in the p re sen t ana lys i s . No s ign i f ic an t r e la t ionsh ipbe tween qua l i ty and e f fec t s i z e was found . ( c )F raud pos tu la ted a s theexp lan a t ion o f the r e su l t s is un tena b le a s i t w ou ld h ave requ i redwidespread co l lus ion among 68 independen t inves t iga to r s . In any ca se ,even seve re c r it i cs o f pa rapsy cho lo g ica l expe r im en ts hav e d i scou n ted f r audas a v iable exp lana t io n. (32) (d) Ske pt ics o f ten asser t tha t on ly "be l ievers"ob ta in pos i t ive r e su l t s in such expe r imen ts . Howeve r , a thorough l i t e ra tu res e a rc h f in d s n o t a s in g le a t te m p t e d r e p li c a ti o n o f t h e R N G e x p e r i m e n t b ya pub l ic ly p roc la imed skep t ic ; thus the a s se r t ion i s no t ba sed on ve r i f i ab leev idence . Fur the rmore , skep t ic s who c la im to have a t t empted rep l ic a t ionsins i s t (w i thou t p rov id ing de ta i l s o r r e fe rences ) tha t they have neve rachieved pos i t iv e resul ts in any of the ir R N G exper im ents . (15"47) Such ac laim i s it s el f qu i te r em arkab le , a s the l ike l ihood o f neve r o b ta in ing as ta t is t ica l ly s ignif icant resul t b y chan ce in se r ies of exp er im ents ca n b ee x t re m e l y lo w , d e p e n d i n g o n t h e n u m b e r o f e x p e r im e n t s c o n d u c t e d . U n f o r -t u n a t e l y , b e c a u s e w e c a n n o t d e t e r m i n e h o w m a n y e x p e r i m e n t s s k e p t i c shave ac tua l ly co ndu c ted , i t is imp oss ib le to jud ge the va l id i ty o f th iscrit ic ism.

F ina l ly , ( e ) th e "no theore t ica l b a s i s " a rgu m ent i s co r rec t , bu t i t doesn o t s u p p o r t a n e g a t i v e c o n c l u s i o n a b o u t e x p e r i m e n t a l o b s e r v a t i o n . T h e r ea re a t p re sen t no ade qu a te theor ie s , w i th the poss ib le excep t ion o f som einte rp re ta t io ns of qu an tu m mech anics , ~z3"8'I1~ tha t conv inc ingly expla in orp red ic t consc iousness - re la ted anoma l ie s in r andom phys ica l sys tems . Wenote , ho weve r , tha t the ano m a lou s e ffec ts rev iewed in th is pap e r app a ren t lycan be ope ra t iona l ly p red ic ted u nde r we l l -spec if ied cond i t ions . F or exam -p le , when ind iv idua l s a re ins t ruc ted to "a im " fo r h igh (o r low ) num bers inRNG expe r imen ts , i t i s pos s ib le to p red ic t w i th some sma l l degree o fconf idence tha t ano m a lou s pos i t ive (o r nega t ive ) sh ift s o f d i s t r ibu t ionmeans wi l l be obse rved .

6 . C O N C L U S I O NIn th is pape r , w e have sum m ar ized re su lt s o f a ll kno w n expe r im en tste s t ing poss ib le in te rac t ions be tween consc iousness and the s ta t i s t i c a l

beh av io r o f r an do m -nu m ber gene ra to r s . Th e ove ra l l e ff ec t s iz e ob ta ined ine x p e r im e n t a l c o n d i t io n s c a n n o t b e a d e q u a t e l y e x p l ai n e d b y m e t h o d o l o g i c a lf laws or se lec t ive repo r t ing prac t ices . Therefore , a f te r cons ider ing a l l of the


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r e t r i e v a b l e e v i d e n ce , p u b l i s h e d a n d u n p u b l i s h e d , t e m p e r e d b y a ll l e g i t i m a t ec r i t i c i sm s r a i s e d t o d a t e , i t i s d i f fi c u lt t o a v o i d t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t u n d e rc e r t a in c i r c u m s t a n c e s , c o n s c i o u s n e s s i n t e r a c t s w i t h r a n d o m p h y s i c a ls y s t e m s . W h e t h e r t h is e f f ec t w i ll u l t i m a t e l y b e e s t a b l i s h e d a s a n o v e r l o o k e dm e t h o d o l o g i c a l a r t i f a c t , a s a n o v e l b i o e l e c t r i c a l p e r t u r b a t i o n o f s e n si t i v ee l e c t ro n i c d e v i c es , o r a s a n e m p i r i c a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e p h i l o s o p h y o fm i n d , r e m a i n s t o b e se en .

A C K N O W L E D G M E N T ST h i s s t u d y w a s s u p p o r t e d b y m a j o r g r a n t s f r o m t h e J a m e s S .

M c D o n n e l l F o u n d a t i o n , I n c . a n d t h e J o h n E . F e t z e r F o u n d a t i o n , I n c . T h ea u t h o r s e x p r e s s th e i r g r a t i t u d e t o D r . Y o r k D o b y n s o f t h e P r i n c e t o nU n i v e r s i t y E n g i n e e r i n g A n o m a l i e s L a b o r a t o r y f o r h i s a s s is t a n c e w i th t h ef i l e d ra w e r m o d e l s .

R E F E R E N C E S

1. R. G. Jahn and B. J. Dunne, Margins o f Reali ty (Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Orlando,Flor ida , 1987).2. B. d 'Espagnat, "The quantum theory and reali ty ," Sci. Am., pp. 158-181 (November,1979).3. O . Co sta de Beauregard, "S-matrix, Fey nm an zigzag and Einstein correlatio n," Phys. Lett.67A, 171-t73 (1978).4. N. D. M ermin, "Is the moon there when nobody looks? Reality and the quantum theory,"

Phys. Today, pp. 38-47 (April, 1985).5. A. Shimony, "R ole of the observer in quan tum theory ," Am. J . Phys . 31, 755 (1963).6. E. P. Wigner, "The p roble m of measurement," Am. J. Phys. 31, 6 (1963).7. U. Zieme lis, "Qu antum -mech anical reality, consciousness an d creativity," Can . Res . 19,62-68 (September, 1986).8. E. J. Squires , "Man y view s of one w orl d-- an interp retation of quantum theory," Eur. J.Phys. 8, 173 (1987).9. J. Hall, C. Kim, B. McElroy, and A. Shimony, "Wave-packet reduction as a medium ofcommunication," Found. Phys. 7, 759-767 (1977); p. 761.10. R. Smith, un published man uscript, M IT , 1968. (Cited in Ref. 9, p. 767.)11. R. G . Jahn and B. J. Dunne, "O n th e quantu m mechanics of consciousness, with app lica-tion to anomalous phenomena," Foun d. Phys. 16, 721-772 (1986).12. J. E. Alcock, Parapsych ology: Science or Ma gic? (Pergamon Press, Elmsford, New York,1981), pp. 124-125.13. M. Gardner , Science: G oo d, Bad, and Bogus (Prometheus Books, B uffalo, New Yo rk,1981).14. R. H-ym an, "Pa rapsy cho logic al research: A t uto rial review and critical app raisal," Proc.I E E E 74, 823-849 (1986).15. P. Ku rtz, "Is p arapsy cho logy a science?" In Paranormal Borderlands of Science,K. Frazier, ed. (Prometheus Books, B uffalo, New York, 1981).


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Con sciousness in Physical System s 1513

16. D . F . Marks , " Inves t iga t ing the pa rano rma l , " N a t u r e ( L o n d o n ) 32 0, 119-124 (1986).17. C . Ho no r ton , "Repl icab i l i ty , expe r im ente r in f luence , an d pa rapsycho logy: A n empi r ica lcontex t for the s tudy of min d ," pape r pre sen ted a t the annu a l m ee t ing of the AAAS,Washington, D.C. , 1978.18. E . C . M ay, B . S . Hum phrey , and G . S . Hubb a rd , "E lec t ron ic sys tem pe r turba t iontechniques ." SRI In te rna t ion a l F ina l R epor t , Septem ber 30 , 1980 .19. H . Schmidt , "Precogn i t ion of a quan tum process ," J . Parapsychol . 33, 99-108 (1969); "APK te s t w i th e lec t ron ic equipment , " J. Parapsychol. 34, 175-181 (1970); "Menta l inf luenceo n r a n d o m e v e n t s , " New Sc i . ScL J . 50, 757-758 (1971); "PK tes ts with pre-recorded andpre - inspec ted seed numbers , " J . Parapsychol . 45, 87-98 (1981) .20 . R , G . J ahn , "T he pe r s i s ten t pa rado x of psychic phen om ena : A n enginee r ing pe r spec t ive , "Proc . IEEE 70, 136-170 (1982) ; R .D . Ne lson , B . J . Dunne , and R .G . J ahn , " A n R E Gexpe r iment w i th l a rge da ta -base capabi l i ty , I I I : Ope ra tor - re la ted anoma l ie s , " Technica lN o t e P E A R 8 4 0 0 3 , P r i n c e t o n E n g i n e e ri n g A n o m a l i e s R e se ar ch L a b o r a t o r y , P r i n c e t o nUnive r s i ty , S chool of E nginee r ing /A ppl ied Sc ience, Septem ber 1984; H . Schmidt ,R . M or r i s , and L . Rud olph , "Ch anne l ing ev idence for a P K e ffec t to independ entobse rve r s , " J. Parapsychol. 50, 1-16 (1986).21. R. Rosentha l , M e t a - A n a l y t i c P r o c ed u r es f o r S o c i a l R e s e a rc h (Sage Publ ica t ions , Bever lyHi ll s, Ca l i forn ia , 1984) ; K . W achte r , "Dis tu rbed by me ta -ana lys i s? " Sc i ence 241,1407-1408 (1988) . We may note tha t Cohen's h, the dif ference be tween control andexpe r imenta l p ropor t ions , i s a common e f fec t s i ze measure tha t might have been used inthe present s tudy. Th is was re jec ted in favor of e , as def ined, beca use so me o f the reviewedstudies repor ted only f ina l p va lues or only overa l l Z scores ; e was thus deemed moreuseful in the present recta-analysis.22 . R . L . Bang e r t -Drowns , "Review of deve lop men ts in me ta -ana ly t i c me thod ," Psychol. Bull .99, 388-399 (1986).23 . A . H . Rosenfe ld , "The pa r t i c le da ta group: Growth and ope ra t ions . " Annu. Rev. Nucl. Sci .25, 555-599 (1975).24 . C . G . Wohl et a l . , Rev . Mod. Phys . 56, Par t I I , p . $5 (1984) .25. G . V. Glass , "In defense of gen era l iza t io n," Behav. Brain Sci . 3, 394-395 (1978).26. H. M. Cooper , "Scient i f ic guide l ines for conduct ing integra t ive reviews," Rev. Educ. Res.

52, 291-302 (1982) .27 . R . M. Dawes , "You can ' t sys tema t ize human judgment : Dys lex ia . " In New Di rec t ions f o rMethodology o f Socia l and Behavioral Science ." Fal l ib le Judgment in Behavoria l Research ,R. A. Shweder, ed. (Jossey-Bass, San Fra nci sco , 1 980), pp. 67-78.28. S. D. Gottf redson, "Evalua t ing psychologica l research repor ts : Dimensions , re l iabi l i ty,and cor re la te s of qua l i ty judgments , " Am. Psycho l . 33, 920-934 (1978) .29 . C . Ake rs, "M e thod olog ica l cr i ti c i sms of pa rapsychology ." In Advances i n Parapsycho log i-cal R esearch, Vol . 4 , S . Kr ippn e r , ed . (M cFar lan d , J ef fe rson, No r th Ca ro l ina , 1984) ; "Ca nme ta -ana lys i s r e so lve the ESP cont rove r sy?" In A Skep t i c ' s Han dbook o f Parapsycho logy' ,P. Kur tz , ed . (Prom e theus Books , B uf fa lo , New York , 1985).30. J . E . A lcock , "Pa rap sycho logy: Sc ience of the anom a lous or s ea rch for the soul , " Behav.Brain Sci . 10, 553-565 (1987).31 . P . D iaconis , "S ta t i s t i c a l p roblems in ESP re sea rch ," Sc i ence 201, 131-136 (1978) .32. C. E. M. Hanse l , E SP and Parapsycho logy : A Cr i t i ca l Reeva lua t ion (Prome theus Books ,Buffalo, New York, 1980) .33. R. Hyman, "The ganzfe ld ps i exper iment: A cr i t ica l appra isa l ," J. Parapsychol. 49, 3 - 5 0(1985).34. T. X. Barber, Pit fa l l s in Human Research ." Ten Pivota l Poin ts (Pergamon Press , Elmsford,New York , 1976).


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evidence for connsciuousnessrelateda anomalies in random physical syustems

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