Evergreen and challenging opportunities at the big market next to EUSeminar Export Steps

Why does somebody run a business in Ukraine? A limited choice globally; limited finance; overestimated S-E Asia 45 m of retail customers 2012: import of goods USD 90 bln; GDP USD 176 bln; Geographical proximity to EU and former USSR markets High retail prices (meat, clothes prices = EU prices) Relatively low cost of labor, agro land rent and some other resources Relatively understandable national culture, similar to Eastern European

patterns Relatively easy access to Ukraine for EU citizens (no visa for short term

visits) WTO member (2008), DK-UA Double tax avoidance convention 100% mobile connection coverage 41% internet penetration Attractive margin rates, higher than in developed countries, and high risks

Most perspective sectors of the UA economy

Agricultural production and Food processing

IT – outstaffing, outsourcing, software development

Energy Efficiency / Renewable Energy / District Heating

Retail trade (2012: USD 98 bln turnover (food + non-food) after 14% y/y growth)

Health Care products

Outsourced processing – a new revival in textiles and wood / metal processing

Most perspective sectors of the UA economy: Agro Production and Food Processing 1/2 of national export Agro land is not for sale; unstable legal environment 1/3 of black soil of the world; 50 m ha of arable land in Ukraine Annual production of grain 45-55 m tonnes of grains (2013 harvest is at 55 m)

and annual internal consumption of 25 m High profitability of farming business in Ukraine. The good players reach on

average EUR 450 EBIDTA/ha Ideal geographic localization of Ukraine close to its major off takers (Europe,

Middle East, Turkey, North Africa, China) with easy access to sea

Most perspective sectors of the UA economy: IT Software Development, e-commerce One of global top 10 software development players (~ USD 1.5 bln / year

export) 30 thousand of IT developers ~ 10 Danish owned IT companies IT companies demonstrate 15-25% growth annually Outsourcing to Ukraine:o Software developmento Call centerso Accounting / reportingo IT support

Favorable tax regime for IT companies and IT developers 41% of population internet penetration, mostly social networks 15% of population use smart phones Rapidly  growing volume of on-line trade and services inside Ukraine

Most perspective sectors of the UA economy: Energy Efficiency / Alternative Energy Highly energy-intensive economy - need for energy efficiency and

diversification of resources High dependence on import of gas and oil from Russia District heating is very much depreciated and needs huge investments Ukraine is one of 20 biggest CO2 emitters in the world with >1% of global

emissions, whereas its economy is 0.2% of the global economy State support - green tariffs - rates comparable to EU levels National grid obliged to connect renewable sources to the network Guaranteed off-take by the State Energy Company through 2029 0% customs duty ; 0% VAT on equipment imports through 2019, but minimum

local content must be observed: 15% in 2012, 30% in 2013 and 50% in 2014 (???)

Shale gas agreements with Shell and Chevron

Most perspective sectors of the UA economy: Retail Sector Population of 45 m people A number of consumers can afford purchasing high-quality food products Food trade outlets exceeded 48,000 in 2012 Approximately 10-15 % of all Ukrainian gas stations (~ 7,000) have stores that

sell packaged food products Urban life style changes increase demand for semi-finished and ready-to-cook

products Frequently changing trade legislation and policies often impact trade. Import

tariffs were lowered by WTO accession but threatened with hikes “to protect Balance of Trade.”

Rapid development of local manufacturers of ready-to-cook products creates tough competition for similar imported goods

Difficulties in finding a reliable partner or distributor

Most perspective sectors of the UA economy: Health and medical sector A lot of smokers in UA but HEALTH is IMPORTANT Big market of 45 mln people Local state health support is weak A lot of professional companies are in the sector Good reputation of Danish medicine Pharmaceuticals Equipment No state support for new and modern technologies Registration of the pharmaceuticals

Challenges to expect Ever changing regulations Ruined roads Unreliable municipal infrastructure Larger businesses experience smaller problems in Ukraine Strong competition from Ukrainians, Russians, Middle East and China Typical Europeans’ mistakes: Ukraine is like Texas in 19th century – take it

seriously, apply your professionalism, be persistent

Ukraine has proved to be a difficult country to do business in/with High level of corruption, too complicated taxation (22 different taxes),

weak investor protection Malfunctioning and politicized court system Lack of support from local authorities, extortion via “charity” Low European languages proficiency, underdeveloped business culture #137 out of 183 World Bank’s most recent Ease of Doing Business

ranking (#152 in 2012) “2 hours of flight away / 30 years behind”

Danish Business on the map of Ukraine

Who does run a business in Ukraine?Sell in UA (i.a. via local representation) Produce in UA (via subsidiaries)Maersk Line Carlsberg (3 breweries; USD 500 m investments)

Novo Nordisk, Coloplast, LundbeckDanosha + 3 other DK groups of agri investors (~20,000 sows)

Danfoss Ciklum (software production, 2,000 IT people)Grundfos SimCorp (software production)Cimbria Auditdata (software), CDM (software)Rezidor (8 hotels / 1900 rooms in UA) Dolle, GangsøJYSK (14 stores) Sika Footwear

Vestas (~60 x 3 MW turbines by 2013)Jahn & Jensen Products (import of food products to UA)

Kamstrup, Logstor Danish Textiles, RaitexRockwool, H+HLego Ukraine

DSV, ICTGrene

VeluxSkov, SkioldHaldor TopsoeECCO

Pandora, Shambala, Skygen Around 100 DK-owned companies in UA

What Denmark can do to protect and develop Danish business in Ukraine? Danish Embassy/Trade Council in Kyiv:

Evaluating market opportunities / market research Partner search, negotiations Organizing the meeting programs and seminars Lobbying Defending the interests of Danish companies working in Ukraine Highlighting the activities of the Danish companies in Ukraine

Relatively large, organized and active Danish/EU lobby Danish Business Association (Lviv) Nordic/Scandinavian business clubs EBA (European Business Association) AmCham (Amercian Chamber of Commerce)

EKF export guaranteeing State-owned IFU is ready to come up with additional financing

Thank you!Tetyana KobchenkoCommercial Advisor

tetkob@um.dk

+38044 2001268+38067 4415717