evaluating the creation of a parallel non-oil transportation system alan drake, andrea m. bassi...
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![Page 1: Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System Alan Drake, Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009 New America Foundation](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022032415/56649efc5503460f94c0f350/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil
Transportation System
Alan Drake,
Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009
New America Foundation
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The Millennium Institute
• MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.
• Established in 1983, MI has assisted over 45 countries to prepare strategic studies of sustainable development possibilities.
• MI develops and disseminates advanced analytical tools to support strategic planning on critical issues.
• MI builds capacity in countries to use our tools to help address critical issues.
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Three Policy Changes
• Renewable Energy
• Urban Rail and relatedTransportation Orientated Development
• Expand, Improve and Electrify Freight Railroads
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2030vs. Business As Usual
• GDP: +13% • CO2: -38%• Oil Consumption: -24%• Employment: +7.2 million (+5.2%)
2030 is NOT year of maximum impact
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2030vs. BAU
• GDP: +11.8% • CO2: -3.8%
• Oil Consumption: -27.6%• Employment: +6.7 million (+4.7%)
Subtract Renewable Energy
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vs. BAU
• GDP: +9.7%• CO2: -6.2%
• Oil Consumption: -22%• Employment: +5.5 million (+3.8%)
ONLY Electrified and Expanded Freight Rail
2030
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Maximum Commercial EffortAssumed
• Maximum Production or Construction that money alone can motivate
• Less than War Time Effort - People will do more when national survival is at stake
• Alberta Tar Sands Development was an example until a few months ago
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Maximum Commercial Effort• Electrify 36,000 miles of mainline railroads in
7 years, Add HV AC & HV DC transmission• Doubletrack and improve mainline Railroads• Remove bottlenecks like CREATE• Electrify another 36,000 miles by 2030• $250 - $300 billion• 14,000 miles of Semi-HSR - $250 billion• Urban Rail - $60 billion/yr for 20 years• Wind, Solar PV and Pumped Storage - see ACORE• Encourage Bicycling and Walkable Neighborhoods
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• During WW II, National & Military Policy was to ship everything possible by rail to save oil, rubber and trucks for the war effort
• 90% of ton-miles by rail, rest by truck, barge and pipeline during WW II
• Our goal is, over 20 years, to shift 85% of truck ton-miles to rail
Historical Accomplishments
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Strategically Relevant US Railroads
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Railroad Electrification Proposals of the 1970s
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?
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Economics of Rail Electrification
• 20 BTUs Diesel > 1 BTU Electricity– Freight 17 to 21:1 ratio– Urban Rail, Indirect > Direct Savings
Consider DC without Metro today
• Positive Cost Elasticity of Supply for Rail
• Negative Cost Elasticity of Supply for Roads
• Domestic Electricity instead of Imported Oil
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Electrical Consumption for Transportation
• USA: 0.19%
• France: 2.3%• USA 2030: ~4% (Without considering EVs)
EVs - 17% for personal transport
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Longer Term Impacts and
Systems Analysis
Challenges and Opportunities
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Freight Scenario
Freight + Renewable Energy Scenario
Side Effects: Feedback Loops (1)Relative GDP and Emissions
GDP
CO2 Emissions
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Side Effects: Feedback Loops (2)Relative GDP and Emissions
GDP
Freight
Freight + Renewable Energy
CO2 Emissions
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Side Effects: Tradeoffs (3)Relative Oil Consumption
Renewable Energy generation increases average electricity prices and limits the reduction in oil consumption
Low electricity prices stimulate the adoption of e.g. hybrid vehicles
Freight + Renewable Energy
Freight Scenario
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Conclusions
• There is no silver bullet to today’s problems;
• Electrified rail, especially when coupled with renewable energy, is a good option;
• Side effects and unintended consequences may arise and lead the system into unwanted and uncharted territories;
• Identifying potential threats early enough, allows to turn them into opportunities.
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Thank you for your attention
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