evaluating small-scale results of activity-based models
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Evaluating Small-Scale Results of Activity-Based Models. Suzanne Childress Erik Sabina Robert Spotts Denver Regional Council of Governments. Transportation Planning Applications Conference Reno May 2011. Denver . 2010 Pop 2.9m Emp 1.6m 2035 Pop 4.5m Emp 2.6m Planning Goals - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Evaluating Small-Scale Results of Activity-Based Models
Suzanne ChildressErik SabinaRobert Spotts
Denver Regional Council of Governments
Transportation Planning Applications ConferenceReno
May 2011
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Denver 2010
Pop 2.9mEmp 1.6m
2035Pop 4.5mEmp 2.6m
Planning GoalsUrban CentersUrban Growth BoundaryNew regional light railTransit Oriented Development
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Why small areas in Denver? Long-term planning goals 2010 to 2035
10% VMT per capita reduction 10% single occupancy vehicle mode share reduction50% of new housing/75% of new jobs in urban centers
Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) Fund Allocation-Planning Funds for Transit-Oriented Developments And Urban Centers
-Bicycle-Pedestrian Project Funds
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Why activity-based models Disaggregation allows for greater control
and summarization (can slice and dice)
More variables = more sensitivity
Tracking households and people with unique characteristics
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All models are wrong. Some models are useful.
In what ways is Denver’s activity-based model useful at depicting travel behavior on a small geography?
In what ways is it not useful?
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Useful Models Tell Stories.
The input variables cause outputs consistent with research and logic.
Match reality in the base year (makes for a believable story)
Tell a story across time, space,and types of people.
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Story Across Space
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Small Areas Story Across Space
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Introducing the characters:2010 Small Area Demographics
Description
Average Household Income
(2000$)Average Household
ChildrenUniversity $ 23,000 0.1Hospital – Low Income $ 33,000 0.8
Edge of Suburbia $ 69,000 0.6
Wealthy Urban Shopping $ 89,000 0.2
Denver Region $ 69,000 0.6
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Setting the scene:2010 Small Area Characteristics
Universi
ty
Hospita
l- Low In
come
Edge of S
uburbia
Wealthy S
hopping
Denver R
egion
0
5
10
15
20
25
Population per AcreEmployment per Acre
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The action begins:Auto Ownership Story
Description Share of 0 car Households
Share of 3 + Car Households
University 30% 12%
Hospital - Low Income 18% 16%
Edge of Suburbia 0% 28%
Wealthy Urban Shopping 16% 16%
Denver Region 8% 24%
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Mode Story
Universi
ty
Hospita
l - Lo
w Inco
me
Edge of S
uburbia
Wealthy U
rban Sh
opping
Denver R
egion
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
Walk ShareTransit Share
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VMT Story- The Denouement
Universi
ty
Hospita
l – Lo
w Inco
me
Edge of S
uburbia
Wealthy U
rban Sh
opping
Denver R
egion
05
1015202530
VMT per Capita
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Is this story fiction?:Observed Versus Modeled Areas
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Observed Vs Modeled Trips By ModeCBD Fringe
Bike
Drive Alone
Transit
SchoolBus
Share
d RideWalk-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Observed CBD FringeModeled CBD Fringe
1104 Observed Trips For Households in the Area
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Observed Vs Modeled Trips By ModeWealthy Urban Shopping
Bike
Drive Alone
Transit
SchoolBus
Share
d RideWalk-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Observed Wealthy Urban ShoppingModeling Wealthy Urban Shopping
832 Observed Trips For Households in the Area
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More complex story:Across Time and Space
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Demographic Shifts
Description % Change in Population % Change in Employment
University 55% 8%
Hospital - Low Income 59% 188%
Edge of Suburbia 675% N/A
Wealthy Urban Shopping 34% 8%
Denver Region 55% 67%
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Transportation Shifts
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Transit Share over time
University Hospital – Low Income
Suburban Wealthy Urban
Shopping
Region 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
20102035
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VMT per capita over time
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20102035
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Small area analysis with ABM is useful (non-fiction?).
Points out areas of weakness in the model
Tells a story across time, space, and types of people.
Guides planners and decision-makers
Observed and modeledresults in the same ballpark
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TIP Criteria Urban Center/TOD Evaluation
Current VMT per Capita
Multi-modal potential-Reduction in single occupancy vehicle percentage (2035-2010)
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Bike and Pedestrian Project Evaluation
User Base- Trips X-Y origins and destinations in 1.5 mile buffer
Cost Effectiveness- Cost per Person Mile Traveled