evalua&on, applica&on and development of esm in · pdf fileevalua&on,...

Evalua&on,applica&onanddevelopmentofESMinChina

BinWang1,2

Contributors:

1.LASG,Ins&tuteofAtmosphericPhysics,CAS

2.CESS,TsinghuaUniversity

3.BeijingNormalUniversity

4.BeijingClimateCenter

5.FirstIns&tuteofOceanography

16thWGCM,24‐26Sep,2012,Hamburg,Germany 1

Outline

Preliminaryevalua&onsonCMIP5

Importantapplica&ons

Progressincouplingtechniques

FuturedevelopmentforAR6

2

GroupName Ins&tu&on ModelName

LASG‐CESSIns&tuteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences;TsinghuaUniversity

FGOALS‐g2

LASGIns&tuteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences

FGOALS‐s2

BNU BeijingNormalUniversity BNU‐ESM

BCC BeijingClimateCenter BCC‐CSM1.1

FIO FirstIns&tuteofOceanography FIO‐ESM1.0

CMIP5modelsinChina

3

Main Variables EvaluatedVariablename Component Evalua&onMethod

Precipita&on Globe RootMeanSquareError

GlobalmeanSATanomaly(SATA)

DetrendofSATATaylorskill(Taylor,2001)

TropicSSTAannualcycle

Pacific PaSernCorrela&on

Warmextremes1980‐1999,21regions

Rela&veRMS

AsianMonsoonJJASmean,annualcycleindex

PaSernCorrela&on

ENSOSD,varianceannualcycle,amplitude,zonalwindstress

Directcomparisonorcorrela&onwithobserva&on

4

Globalarea‐weightedmeanRMSEofPrecipita&on(1980‐2005)(OBS:GPCP)

Mean: 1.31; Max: 1.72; Min: 1.09 (unit: mm/day)

5

20thCenturySATVaria&on(1870‐2005)

Mean: 0.52; Max: 0.64; Min: 0.396

TropicPacificAnnualCycle(2⁰S‐2⁰N,120⁰E‐80⁰W)

Mean: 0.63; Max: 0.82; Min: 0.267

CMIP3CMIP5best worst

CRUCPC

Rela&veRMS

Performance of AR5 models on

presenting warm extremes for

1980-1999 at 21 regions

(Zhao et al, 2012)

8

SkillsofCMIPModelsonJJASAsianPrecipita&onandWind

(OBS:ERA40)

(OBS

:GPC

P)

FGOALS‐g2

BNU‐ESM

FGOALS‐s2BCC‐CSM1.1

CNRM

‐CM5

MIROC‐ESM

(Zhouetal.2012;Sperberetal.2012)

9

5mm/day

季风爆发季风撤退

5mm/day

Onset Withdraw

Rela&verainfallrateintheBengalBayregion

(Sperberetal.2012)

Summermonsoonannualcycleindex

Dura&on

peak

10

CMIP5MMM

CMIP5MMMCMIP3MMM

CMIP3MMM

ChinaMMM

ChinaMMM

FGOALS‐g2

FGOALS‐g2

BNU‐ESM

BNU‐ESM

FGOALS‐s2

FGOALS‐s2

BCC‐CSM1.1

BCC‐CSM1.1

Onset

Withd

raw

Dura&on

Peak

Asiansummermonsoon1) Comparing with CMIP3

models, CMIP5 modelsimprove the Asian summermonsoon significantly;

2) China MMM performs betterthan CMIP3 MMM on onsetand duration, but worse onwithdraw and peak;

3) FGOALS-g2 presentsbetter onset and durationbut worse withdraw andpeak than both CMIP3MMM and CMIP5 MMM;

4) FGOALS-g2 presents betteronset, withdraw andduration but worse peakthan China MMM.

(Zhouetal.2012;Sperberetal.2012)

(OBS:GPCP) 11

FGOALS‐g2 BNU‐ESM

FIO‐ESM1.0FGOALS‐s2BCC‐CSM1.1

HadISSTHurrell2008

INMCM3.0

GFDL‐CM2p1

HadGEM2‐ES

IPSL‐CM5A‐LRIPSL‐CM5A‐MR

Othermodels:CNRM‐CM5,INMCM4.0,MIROC5,MIROC‐ESM,MPI‐ESM‐LR,NorESM1‐M

Nino3.4region

Taylorskillsofv

ariancean

nualcycle

Standarddevia&on

(Huangetal,2012) 12

BNU‐ESM

FIO‐ESM1.0

FGOALS‐s2

BCC‐CSM1.1HadISST+ERA40Hurrell2008+ERA40

FGOALS

‐g2

INMCM3.0

MIROC5

NorESM1‐M

INMCM4.0

Widthofzonalwindstressanomalies

Othermodels:CNRM‐CM5,HadGEM2‐ES,IPSL‐CM5A‐LR,IPSL‐CM5A‐MR,MIROC‐ESM,MPI‐ESM‐LR

Amplitud

eofpow

erspe

ctrum

Nino3.4region

(Huangetal,2012)13

Outline





14

Afribu&on,CenturialProjec&onandDecadalPredic&on

HistoricalSimula&ons

FutureProjec&ons

CMIP5models

CESM

BNU‐ESM

FGOALS

FIO‐ESM

BCC‐CSM

Developed

Countries

Developing

Countries

AllCountries

Ems‐Hist(1850‐2005)

DevelopedCountries

DevelopingCountries

AllCountries

CancunPledgeandfuturereduc&on(2005‐2100)

Modeling scheme courtesy of Dong, 2010hSp://114.255.218.74/index.jsp

15

ESM‐Histfrom10CMIP5models

CO2concentra&on:

Developed:61%and71%;

Developing:39%and29%;

CO2radia&veforcing:

Developed:53%and62%;

Developing:47%and38%;

Airtemperature:

Developed:60%and64%

Developing:40%and36%

ALL = All countries’ emission= =AX1+NX1AX1= developed countries’ emissions ;NX1= developing countries’ emissions;

Developedanddevelopingworldresponsibili&esforhistoricalclimatechange

Wei et al., 2012, PNAS16

Developedanddevelopingworldresponsibili&esforCO2mi&ga&on

Contribu&onstoreduc&on

ofglobalwarming:

Developed:33%and35%

Developing:67%and

65%

Mi&ga&ongoal:

Currentmi&ga&on

cannotcontrolrising

temperaturewithin2℃

in2100.Itisnecessaryto

fillthegapwithmore

ambi&ousmi&ga&on

efforts.

ABNB=allcountriesnon‐

mi&ga&on;

ACNB=onlydeveloped

countriesfollowCancun

(2006‐2020)+80%

reduc&onsby2050and

zeroemissionsby2100;

ABNC=onlydeveloping

countriesfollowCancun

(2006‐2020)+50%

reduc&onsby2050and

zeroemissionsby2100;

ACNC=allcountries

mi&ga&onWei et al., 2012, PNAS

18

SurfaceAirTemperatureAnomaliesbyFGOALS‐g2(2ndsampleofhistoricalrun)

FGOALS-g2

HadCRUT3

Cor:0.84

Surface air temperature anomalies (SATA)

1900192019401960198020002020

0.60

0.30

0.00

‐0.30

‐0.60

1966

-199

0

1986

-200

5

FGOALS-g2 (Cor=0.678) FGOALS-g2 (Cor=0.786)

HadCRUT3 HadCRUT3

19

30-year predictions of SATA by FGOALS-g2

2011-2035(Forecast)

1966

-199

019

86-2

005

After detrendH

indc

ast

Outline





20

Lackofdirectfluxexchangeinavailablecouplers

21

Centralizedfluxcouplerwithoutdirectfluxexchange

Decentralizednon‐fluxcouplerwithoutdirectfluxexchange

NCARCoupler

OASISCoupler

(Liuetal,2011)

C‐Coupler:toovercometheimperfec&on(thefirstcouplerdevelopedbyChinesescien&sts)

22

Centralizedfluxcouplerformodulariza&onandstandardiza&on

Directfluxexchangeforbeferparallelefficiencyofhigh‐resolu&onmodels

(Liuetal,2011)

Onlineensembletoolforcoupledclimatemodel

MultiICEnsemble

MultiModelEnsembleDifferen

tscena

riosfo

ron

lineen

sembles

MotivationHowweathernoise/atmosphericmodeluncertaintyimpactstheclimateresponse?

Ensemblecouplingsolwareframework

(Xueetal,2011) 23

ENSO

OnlineMul&‐ini&alcondi&onensemble

OnlineMul&‐modelensemble

OfflineMul&‐modelensemble

Singleini&alcondi&on

(Xueetal,2011) 24

(Xueetal,2012)

Outline





25

Furtherevalua&onofChinaCMIP5modelsandotherCMIP5modelsforunderstandingofuncertain&esinthesemodels;

Developmentofhigh‐resolu&onAGCMandOGCM(0.5⁰‐0.1⁰ inhorizontaland50layersinver&calwithin5years);

Developmentofearthsystemmodelbasedonourowncoupler:C‐Coupler;

Improvementsofonlineensemblecouplingframeworkandensemblecouplingstrategies;

Improvementsofdynamicalcores,physicalparameteriza&ons,andcarboncycleprocesses.

FuturePlanforAR6

26

Thank you

27

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